politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll finds the SNP regaining their majority at Holyr

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Politico: "Advisers to Hillary Clinton’s campaign have identified so many paths to an Election Day victory they are now focusing not only on the one or two battlegrounds that would ensure a win but on opening up the possibility of an Electoral College landslide."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep-for-a-landslide-227659#ixzz4J6pbmn2m

Fill your boots at 1.37 on BF. Better than the bank rate (isn't everything?).

rottenborough said:

Politico: "Advisers to Hillary Clinton’s campaign have identified so many paths to an Election Day victory they are now focusing not only on the one or two battlegrounds that would ensure a win but on opening up the possibility of an Electoral College landslide."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep-for-a-landslide-227659#ixzz4J6pbmn2m

Fill your boots at 1.37 on BF. Better than the bank rate (isn't everything?).

Currently she's ahead by 3/4%, so it seems somewhat hubristic to be talking about a landslide victory.

The national polls are pretty irrelevant. It's winning states that counts and a landslide in the electoral college: FL, OH, PA, Nevada.

As the national polls narrow so do the battleground states.

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

@patrick_kidd: Am on Virgin train. War with Corbyn endures. Guard just said: "For those moaning they have to sit on floor there are 132 empty seats today."

@patrick_kidd: Virgin guard goes on: "If you can't find an empty seat, may I suggest you try walking through more than one carriage before complaining"

I'd put money on the guard saying that was doing so off his own bat, not prompted by the company in any way at all. Railway people can be very proud and protective of their company.

‏@patrick_kidd New announcement from Virgin guard (see previous). "For those who tweeted that I was being funny, it was factual. We call it being helpful."

John_M said:

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

@patrick_kidd: Am on Virgin train. War with Corbyn endures. Guard just said: "For those moaning they have to sit on floor there are 132 empty seats today."

@patrick_kidd: Virgin guard goes on: "If you can't find an empty seat, may I suggest you try walking through more than one carriage before complaining"

I'd put money on the guard saying that was doing so off his own bat, not prompted by the company in any way at all. Railway people can be very proud and protective of their company.

‏@patrick_kidd New announcement from Virgin guard (see previous). "For those who tweeted that I was being funny, it was factual. We call it being helpful."

This guy is a natural. He should be promoted to a bigger train.

John_M said:

John_M said:

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

@patrick_kidd: Am on Virgin train. War with Corbyn endures. Guard just said: "For those moaning they have to sit on floor there are 132 empty seats today."

@patrick_kidd: Virgin guard goes on: "If you can't find an empty seat, may I suggest you try walking through more than one carriage before complaining"

I'd put money on the guard saying that was doing so off his own bat, not prompted by the company in any way at all. Railway people can be very proud and protective of their company.

‏@patrick_kidd New announcement from Virgin guard (see previous). "For those who tweeted that I was being funny, it was factual. We call it being helpful."

This guy is a natural. He should be promoted to a bigger train.

Broad gauge?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/02/putins-eton-11-schoolboys-russian-leader

Putin meets the future Tory front bench.

williamglenn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/02/putins-eton-11-schoolboys-russian-leader

Putin meets the future Tory front bench.

I thought there was an Etonian purge quite recently?

nunu "This is so shocking, go to about 20mins in. In middle class Chester!"

Are you being serious or taking the P?

PClipp said:

MarqueeMark said:

PClipp said:

MarqueeMark said:

And former cynical ex-LibDem leader not bothered about human consequences of his cynical "promises" to the poorest students made to boost his short-term electoral chances?

The poorest students, Mr Mark, got a far better deal out of the Coalition Government than they are getting out of this backward-looking Tory one.

And how are any of them doing compared to the deal Clegg promised them? For cynical political advantage.....

It was a promise that you Tories prevented him from keeping.

Riiiiiiiight...........

Casino_Royale said:

rottenborough said:

Politico: "Advisers to Hillary Clinton’s campaign have identified so many paths to an Election Day victory they are now focusing not only on the one or two battlegrounds that would ensure a win but on opening up the possibility of an Electoral College landslide."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep-for-a-landslide-227659#ixzz4J6pbmn2m

Fill your boots at 1.37 on BF. Better than the bank rate (isn't everything?).

Certainly not.

British reading of the dynamics of American politics is woeful, and far too coloured by the spin our media puts on it.

I think Hillary will win but I certainly won't bet the farm on it.

British and European media tends to view the Democrats as being perhaps half-civilised (obviously, Americans can never be truly civilised) but Republicans as being completely beyond the pale.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

rottenborough said:

Politico: "Advisers to Hillary Clinton’s campaign have identified so many paths to an Election Day victory they are now focusing not only on the one or two battlegrounds that would ensure a win but on opening up the possibility of an Electoral College landslide."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep-for-a-landslide-227659#ixzz4J6pbmn2m

Fill your boots at 1.37 on BF. Better than the bank rate (isn't everything?).

Certainly not.

British reading of the dynamics of American politics is woeful, and far too coloured by the spin our media puts on it.

I think Hillary will win but I certainly won't bet the farm on it.

British and European media tends to view the Democrats as being perhaps half-civilised (obviously, Americans can never be truly civilised) but Republicans as being completely beyond the pale.

Very true.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/02/putins-eton-11-schoolboys-russian-leader

Putin meets the future Tory front bench.

I thought there was an Etonian purge quite recently?

They'll be back.

Sean_F said:

Not "Big Daddy's Dungeon Party?"

Certainly a party with a modicum of merit ..

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

IBD/TIPP National poll.

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Interesting snippet:

"The poll found 50% supported mandatory deportation, but only 46% back the wall."

stodge said:

MarqueeMark said:

<

And how are any of them doing compared to the deal Clegg promised them? For cynical political advantage.....

Just like the Conservatives who were still wibbling on about the "Winter of Discontent" in the 1990s. Why not talk about your own Government's record - after all, you've had two since since the last election ?

Cowardly Clegg to come out with his bitching now.. why didn't he say anything at the time

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

EDIT: I note there is still 15% of the non Trump/Clinton in those numbers, although the reduction in Stein's vote might indicate it is going to go to Trump if it is a knife-edge vote? (But was Stein really ever on 5%??)

The Killing. My word. Only just discovered it. Lucky me.

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

Well it's the first poll that covered the events of Wednesday.
Lets wait for others, but this polls would be encouraging for the Trump camp.

SouthamObserver said:

The Killing. My word. Only just discovered it. Lucky me.

Assuming you mean the Danish original, series one is an absolute masterpiece. Incredibly few weak points for such a complex plot.

Harry Enten of 538 looks at the best way of reading the POTUS polls :

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/13-tips-for-reading-general-election-polls-like-a-pro/

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, Farage Effect?

He'll claim it regardless!

Maybe just the restorative properties of Brexit striking a chord?

Scott_P said:

@patrick_kidd: Am on Virgin train. War with Corbyn endures. Guard just said: "For those moaning they have to sit on floor there are 132 empty seats today."

@patrick_kidd: Virgin guard goes on: "If you can't find an empty seat, may I suggest you try walking through more than one carriage before complaining"

Corbyn - the git that keeps on giving.

HurstLlama said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

I don't know that she is actually doing anything wrong. Perhaps these results are because the American voters are just starting to pay attention to politics and looking at Clinton as a possible president.

There's also more of a relentless character to the negative stories surrounding her. The cumulative effect of emails and pay-for-access is helping cement the image of her as a geriatric grifter whose best years are behind her.

Trump goes from crisis to crisis but no-one can remember what each one was about after a few weeks.

HurstLlama said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

I don't know that she is actually doing anything wrong. Perhaps these results are because the American voters are just starting to pay attention to politics and looking at Clinton as a possible president.

Maybe to counter Farage, she needs Neil Kinnock to open her rallies....?

Or perhaps a series of pledges to be carved on Mount Rushmore if she wins.

MTimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

EDIT: I note there is still 15% of the non Trump/Clinton in those numbers, although the reduction in Stein's vote might indicate it is going to go to Trump if it is a knife-edge vote? (But was Stein really ever on 5%??)

She is not doing anything wrong that hasn't been wrong about her all along. People dislike her only marginally less than they dislike the Donald. People trust her less than any politician in US history save the Donald. She has zero charisma, she is so bad at speaking off the cuff that her team won't let her do press conferences unless they absolutely can't avoid it. Even women don't like her.

This is such a depressing choice.

Both main parties will be desperately wishing they could start over with their candidate selections. Either party could select literally anyone else and get a landslide win, instead we have Alien vs Predator - with the American public wishing they could both lose.

williamglenn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/02/putins-eton-11-schoolboys-russian-leader

Putin meets the future Tory front bench.

I do like the use of "erstwhile" to refer to the British Ambassador to Russia.

It usually refers to the relatively recent past...in this case the Ambassador retired in 1602...

MTimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

EDIT: I note there is still 15% of the non Trump/Clinton in those numbers, although the reduction in Stein's vote might indicate it is going to go to Trump if it is a knife-edge vote? (But was Stein really ever on 5%??)

She is not doing anything wrong that hasn't been wrong about her all along. People dislike her only marginally less than they dislike the Donald. People trust her less than any politician in US history save the Donald. She has zero charisma, she is so bad at speaking off the cuff that her team won't let her do press conferences unless they absolutely can't avoid it. Even women don't like her.

This is such a depressing choice.

It is of course difficult for anyone over here to really understand US politics but the choice does seem so awful I wonder if this year's presidential election might set a record for the lowest turnout.

JackW said:

weejonnie said:

Good showing for Trump in Iowa +4 and Virginia -2

Link please.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#plus

HurstLlama said:

MTimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

EDIT: I note there is still 15% of the non Trump/Clinton in those numbers, although the reduction in Stein's vote might indicate it is going to go to Trump if it is a knife-edge vote? (But was Stein really ever on 5%??)

She is not doing anything wrong that hasn't been wrong about her all along. People dislike her only marginally less than they dislike the Donald. People trust her less than any politician in US history save the Donald. She has zero charisma, she is so bad at speaking off the cuff that her team won't let her do press conferences unless they absolutely can't avoid it. Even women don't like her.

This is such a depressing choice.

It is of course difficult for anyone over here to really understand US politics but the choice does seem so awful I wonder if this year's presidential election might set a record for the lowest turnout.

I doubt turnout will be low, the main argument from both sides is that if they lose it will lead to the end of mankind.

not_on_fire said:

SquareRoot said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I see there is a coronation street waycism scandal on twitter with much foaming at tbe mouth and outrage over basically er nothing.

Basically one of the characters looked at her hair and said she had more roots than the lead character of a 70s TV series set in the days of slavery who I had never heard of which was apparently called Roots.

All sorts of racism investigations are going on, 300 complaints to Ofcom and there is a pious article in the Guardian warning how we Brits have so much to learn about Race.

Of course this sort of thing is rife in the USA too. Then people wonder why when someone wealthy and rather right wing says vote for me and I will strip the clothes from this bogus emperor he is within striking distance of the presidency.

Trump, as Brexit did here, is showing that there is a yawning chasm between the views and values of the metropolitan elite and the ordinary working people.

Everyone wants to take offence if at all possible these days.. Its American culture that is to blame

So the 15m people who voted Remain are all part of this so-called elite? That's stretching the definition of elite somewhat...

No a lot were scaredy cats worried and fearful ...

Basically Trump has to reduce the Stereotype threat that Black voters have. i.e. I vote Democrat because I am black and black voters vote Democrat.

Speedy said:

HurstLlama said:

MTimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

EDIT: I note there is still 15% of the non Trump/Clinton in those numbers, although the reduction in Stein's vote might indicate it is going to go to Trump if it is a knife-edge vote? (But was Stein really ever on 5%??)

She is not doing anything wrong that hasn't been wrong about her all along. People dislike her only marginally less than they dislike the Donald. People trust her less than any politician in US history save the Donald. She has zero charisma, she is so bad at speaking off the cuff that her team won't let her do press conferences unless they absolutely can't avoid it. Even women don't like her.

This is such a depressing choice.

It is of course difficult for anyone over here to really understand US politics but the choice does seem so awful I wonder if this year's presidential election might set a record for the lowest turnout.

I doubt turnout will be low, the main argument from both sides is that if they lose it will lead to the end of mankind.

You are probably right, Mr. Speedy, I am perhaps projecting my English personality on to our US cousins. Faced with two such awful candidates I would probably abstain. The Septics may look at life differently.

HurstLlama said:

MTimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

EDIT: I note there is still 15% of the non Trump/Clinton in those numbers, although the reduction in Stein's vote might indicate it is going to go to Trump if it is a knife-edge vote? (But was Stein really ever on 5%??)

She is not doing anything wrong that hasn't been wrong about her all along. People dislike her only marginally less than they dislike the Donald. People trust her less than any politician in US history save the Donald. She has zero charisma, she is so bad at speaking off the cuff that her team won't let her do press conferences unless they absolutely can't avoid it. Even women don't like her.

This is such a depressing choice.

It is of course difficult for anyone over here to really understand US politics but the choice does seem so awful I wonder if this year's presidential election might set a record for the lowest turnout.

I've thought about that and discount it. Trump will turn out quite a lot of previous non-voters. And, while he will turn off many traditional GOP voters, most of them will either vote Dem or Libertarian, with only a minority choosing not to vote.

Clinton will not by her own efforts increase the Dem vote. But fear of the Donald can be expected to maintain high turnouts for lefty liberals and the African American community, and perhaps reach new highs for turnout of the Latino electorate.

The one demographic I do not expect to see at particularly high levels is the women's vote. They don't like the Donald, for sure, but they don't like Hillary. Given the Donald has been pro-abortion in the past, the choice between the two doesn't put the Supreme Court balance on Roe vs Wade in jeopardy, the one thing that might galvanize the demographic.

MaxPB said:

Does anyone know what Amazon's delivery to Switzerland is like, do they deduct VAT before the order?

Sorry, no idea.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nunu "This is so shocking, go to about 20mins in. In middle class Chester!"

Are you being serious or taking the P?

Why would you ask if I'm being serious? Or do u think what that woman experienced wasn't shocking? TSE is right you are thick.

The complete collection of today's bad polls for Hillary:

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/771744158184800256
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/771748350064521216
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/771748842903666688

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

@patrick_kidd: Am on Virgin train. War with Corbyn endures. Guard just said: "For those moaning they have to sit on floor there are 132 empty seats today."

@patrick_kidd: Virgin guard goes on: "If you can't find an empty seat, may I suggest you try walking through more than one carriage before complaining"

I'd put money on the guard saying that was doing so off his own bat, not prompted by the company in any way at all. Railway people can be very proud and protective of their company.

Us SR folk have still not forgiven BR(WR) now GWR again for singling our main line to exeter damn near wrecking it after they took it over in a BR regional boundary change in 1963 and probably won't until it is restored to double track and the principle route to Exeter again.

@PClipp

And how are any of them doing compared to the deal Clegg promised them? For cynical political advantage.....

'It was a promise that you Tories prevented him from keeping.'


Oh dear a very poor attempt to try & rewrite history & pretend red lines didn't exist,should at least wait another 20 years to try that scam.

Interesting article on the EU referendum campaigns. Looks like the Remain campaign was piss poor.

"By contrast, when ConservativesIn’s plans for polling day operations in 90 key seats were leaked to us, we thought their plans were too bad to be true. Remain had chosen a ‘high-visibility’, un-targeted approach for their ground campaign. This involved railway station leafleting at 6am, followed by street stalls and ‘high street leafleting’ throughout the day before returning to station activity between 5pm and 7pm. Such scattergun campaigning was ineffective when you consider that the average ‘Leave’ vote in these constituencies was 45 per cent. So Remain’s activists had a 55 per cent chance of contacting a supporter on polling day; Vote Leave’s ground campaigners had a 75 per cent chance. ‘Remains’’ ‘high visibility’ campaigning may have been enough to fool some into thinking ‘Remain’ were more active, but ‘Leave’ was by far the more effective."

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/inside-story-brexit-vote-won/

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HurstLlama said:

Scott_P said:

@patrick_kidd: Am on Virgin train. War with Corbyn endures. Guard just said: "For those moaning they have to sit on floor there are 132 empty seats today."

@patrick_kidd: Virgin guard goes on: "If you can't find an empty seat, may I suggest you try walking through more than one carriage before complaining"

I'd put money on the guard saying that was doing so off his own bat, not prompted by the company in any way at all. Railway people can be very proud and protective of their company.

Us SR folk have still not forgiven BR(WR) now GWR again for singling our main line to exeter damn near wrecking it after they took it over in a BR regional boundary change in 1963 and probably won't until it is restored to double track and the principle route to Exeter again.

Could have been worse: the line between Matlock and Peak Forest was shut because the West Coast folks didn't want a rival route to Manchester. Although they only wanted the line shut after it was used as a diversionary route during electrification of the WCML route.

Barbara Castle has a lot to answer for ...

One of BR's biggest mistakes in 1948 was keeping the regional structure of the railways, where some (cough) GWR (cough) pretty much did things their own way for decades.

SeanT said:

Right wing people, especially *hard* right, have better sex

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/771685430118846464

But of course. "No woman was ever turned on by a man dressed as a liberal".

It sort of makes sense.

Alpha types who if we lived in a society without a state as animals do are the ones that would dominate, and are going to be in favour of a small state and freedom to do as they wish.

Beta puny types who would be dominated by the alpha types are going to prefer a big state which regulates everything and gives them a more level playing field.

Basically Dennis the Menace is right wing, Walter the softie is left wing.....

Uzbek tyrant confirmed dead:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37260375

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nunu said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nunu "This is so shocking, go to about 20mins in. In middle class Chester!"

Are you being serious or taking the P?

Why would you ask if I'm being serious? Or do u think what that woman experienced wasn't shocking? TSE is right you are thick.

More insults from the so superior REMAINers..... I listened from the 20 mins point for about 5 mins and it was very hard to make out what she had suffered other than coming from Germany and someone told her "made your bed so you lie in it". So could you help and explain what exactly she had suffered and how that had been substantiated by some other evidence?

"More insults from the so superior REMAINers..... "- LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

Clearly you didn't bother listening then, you heard what you wanted to.She said she has lived here since the 70's and her neighbours and people who she thought were her friends and had even gone on coach trips with said they could no longer be friends with her because she is "foreign" people hear her accent and shout abuse at her, she has had dog poo on her window and is very afraid. I'm not saying it's representative of LEAVE voters at all but I found it a few days ago and thought it was shocking. I hope we can reach out to people and make sure they know they feel valued.

People need to drop the Leave/Remain tribalism now.

weejonnie said:

Basically Trump has to reduce the Stereotype threat that Black voters have. i.e. I vote Democrat because I am black and black voters vote Democrat.

In the Welsh valleys you can replace Trump with UKIP, Black with Valleys Residents and Democrat with Labour

nunu said:

Speedy said:

The complete collection of today's bad polls for Hillary:

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/771744158184800256
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/771748350064521216
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/771748842903666688

These polls are good, they will wake the Democrats from their complacency.

What can they do - all they offer is hate.

SeanT said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

SeanT said:

Right wing people, especially *hard* right, have better sex

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/771685430118846464

But of course. "No woman was ever turned on by a man dressed as a liberal".

It sort of makes sense.

Alpha types who if we lived in a society without a state as animals do are the ones that would dominate, and are going to be in favour of a small state and freedom to do as they wish.

Beta puny types who would be dominated by the alpha types are going to prefer a big state which regulates everything and gives them a more level playing field.

Basically Dennis the Menace is right wing, Walter the softie is left wing.....

It's very difficult to find a sexy male icon, beloved by women, who isn't alpha, dominant, and classically rightwing. From Darcy to Heathcliff, from Christian Gray (trillionaire businessman!) to Ross Poldark (dashing mine-captain), they are all Tories, Republicans or quasi-Fascist.

In Highlander the brooding macho hero actually gives the feisty modern heroine a spanking, which caused much excitation in the largely female viewership.

No liberal could ever administer a sincere spanking. He'd be worried about triggering. And have triplicate consent forms ready to be signed.

lol

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

Occurs to me that US election 2016 might be the only time when both parties have selected the only candidate who might lose to the opposition

I think this underestimates both candidates.

Hillary would have loved to go up against a Rubio, a Kasich or, even better, a Cruz.

By the same token, Trump has already dispatched mainstream heavyweights like Jeb Bush with ease it would take an exceptional Democrat to avoid falling victim to the same kind of tactics.

Kasich or Rubio would have beaten Hillary (though maybe not Cruz), Sanders also polled better against Trump than Hillary does

nunu said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nunu said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nunu "This is so shocking, go to about 20mins in. In middle class Chester!"

Are you being serious or taking the P?

Why would you ask if I'm being serious? Or do u think what that woman experienced wasn't shocking? TSE is right you are thick.

More insults from the so superior REMAINers..... I listened from the 20 mins point for about 5 mins and it was very hard to make out what she had suffered other than coming from Germany and someone told her "made your bed so you lie in it". So could you help and explain what exactly she had suffered and how that had been substantiated by some other evidence?

"More insults from the so superior REMAINers..... "- LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

Clearly you didn't bother listening then, you heard what you wanted to.She said she has lived here since the 70's and her neighbours and people who she thought were her friends and had even gone on coach trips with said they could no longer be friends with her because she is "foreign" people hear her accent and shout abuse at her, she has had dog poo on her window and is very afraid. I'm not saying it's representative of LEAVE voters at all but I found it a few days ago and thought it was shocking. I hope we can reach out to people and make sure they know they feel valued.

People need to drop the Leave/Remain tribalism now.

You could start by stopping posting REMAIN propaganda

MTimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

Some problems in Hillaryland in the first poll covering the Mexico-Immigration stunts:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

Hillary 44 -2
Trump 43 +4

Trump 39 +4
Hillary 39 nc
Johnson 12 nc
Stein 3 -2

Hilary's 7 point lead reduced to a one point lead in a month surely can't just be down to the Convention bounce subsiding? What is she doing wrong?

EDIT: I note there is still 15% of the non Trump/Clinton in those numbers, although the reduction in Stein's vote might indicate it is going to go to Trump if it is a knife-edge vote? (But was Stein really ever on 5%??)

She is not doing anything wrong that hasn't been wrong about her all along. People dislike her only marginally less than they dislike the Donald. People trust her less than any politician in US history save the Donald. She has zero charisma, she is so bad at speaking off the cuff that her team won't let her do press conferences unless they absolutely can't avoid it. Even women don't like her.

This is such a depressing choice.

I remain of the view Hillary v Trump is basically a rehash of the 1968 election only as Nixon v Wallace and without Humphrey. I am also sticking to my view Hillary will win by less than 1% (as Nixon did then) and in the closest electoral college margin since 2000, with Trump winning Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada and Iowa, Hillary Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia for a 273 to 265 victory

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

O/T

"Why the Remainers are still clinging on to dreams of overturning Brexit...and how they hope to do it"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/02/why-the-remainers-are-still-clinging-on-to-dreams-of-overturning/

Brexit means Brexit. We are going to trigger Article 50 come hell or high water just as soon as we have a cast-iron guarantee that we will have a better deal outside which should be in around 2099.

Britain is leaving the European Union, and Sweden is joining the Euro.

Sweden will leave the EU before it joins the Euro

nunu said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nunu said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nunu "This is so shocking, go to about 20mins in. In middle class Chester!"

Are you being serious or taking the P?

Why would you ask if I'm being serious? Or do u think what that woman experienced wasn't shocking? TSE is right you are thick.

More insults from the so superior REMAINers..... I listened from the 20 mins point for about 5 mins and it was very hard to make out what she had suffered other than coming from Germany and someone told her "made your bed so you lie in it". So could you help and explain what exactly she had suffered and how that had been substantiated by some other evidence?

"More insults from the so superior REMAINers..... "- LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL.

Clearly you didn't bother listening then, you heard what you wanted to.She said she has lived here since the 70's and her neighbours and people who she thought were her friends and had even gone on coach trips with said they could no longer be friends with her because she is "foreign" people hear her accent and shout abuse at her, she has had dog poo on her window and is very afraid. I'm not saying it's representative of LEAVE voters at all but I found it a few days ago and thought it was shocking. I hope we can reach out to people and make sure they know they feel valued.

People need to drop the Leave/Remain tribalism now.

You take her story as fact then. If you want "People to drop the Leave/Remain tribalism now" you would need to start with yourself and stop calling people stupid who supported LEAVE.