politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems are coming off life-support: something else fo

Unlike Labour

Fourth like the Lib Dems (for now)

FPT

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Freggles said:

Ahem...

Before the vote I was shot down for saying:

"Any opportunities to produce new Nissan models will be given to non-UK plants until a trade deal is ironed out - too much uncertainty. Cue redundancies in Sunderland.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested."

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-in-sunderland-plant-until-brexit-deal-clear-but-boss-reasonably-optimistic-1-8052373

Mr Gosn 'has previous' - from twelve years ago:

Nissan may quit UK over euro
Nissan's president chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, has repeated warnings that its Sunderland plant could lose production of one of its most important cars if Britain remains outside the euro.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2004/jan/07/motoring.theeuro

Leaving behind a £2bn investment, and choosing to prioritise investment in other Nissan plants are two totally different things.

Being, shall we say, 'unreliable' over the future of Nissan investment in the UK may be the same things......

But, uncertainty over this is the killer. A pound of investment that goes to the Spanish plant rather than the British one never comes back.

Do you recall that argument being made over the UK joining the Euro? By a Nissan chap.....name escapes me......

I can't believe I'm having this argument with you.

Right now, the management of Nissan does not know if Britain the EU will have a free trade agreement. The EU/EEA car market is 5x the size of the UK one. Until they know what relationship the UK will have with EU, of course they will hold off on investment decisions.

Which line of that argument do you find contentious?

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

rcs1000 said:

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

If you were that Libdem you would not be known for your ambition.

Jonathan said:

The LDs are the least of anyone's concerns. Labour would benefit if they could take some of their old seats back from the Tories.

And within that complacency lies the risk: someone has to fill the centre-left gap. Maybe Labour has too many distractions for the time being to think about that but where it to lose say 5% to the Lib Dems, they'd be in a horrible hole.

rcs1000 said:

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

So the equivalent of the Liberals increase in 1974 from 1970.

And don't get me started on Simon Mann. The most pessimistic gloom monger on radio. Swanmy at least winds him up and baits him.

Spurs 6 Inter Milan 1

Anyone more for the PB fantasy league... just a week to go now...

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

I think there's about an 8/1 chance that they might end up with more than 50. It's not inconceivable that they could top 100. These are very strange times.

Agree, with the caveat that this is only realistic with substantial defections from Labour, i.e. the LDs going into the next election with most of their sitting MPs having been elected as Labour.

I'd rather have the LDs than Labour as the centre-left party - not that I'd vote for either of them - but a kind of reverse takeover by the metropolitan, Blairite wing of Labour would somewhat dull their appeal. Still, better than Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, and McCluskey I guess.

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

I think there's about an 8/1 chance that they might end up with more than 50. It's not inconceivable that they could top 100. These are very strange times.

Assuming it takes place in 2020 or thereabouts, and with 600 MPs under new boundaries, the next election result could be almost anything at all. I'd bet on Tories as largest party, but beyond that I've no idea!

Essexit said:

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

I think there's about an 8/1 chance that they might end up with more than 50. It's not inconceivable that they could top 100. These are very strange times.

Agree, with the caveat that this is only realistic with substantial defections from Labour, i.e. the LDs going into the next election with most of their sitting MPs having been elected as Labour.

I'd rather have the LDs than Labour as the centre-left party - not that I'd vote for either of them - but a kind of reverse takeover by the metropolitan, Blairite wing of Labour would somewhat dull their appeal. Still, better than Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, and McCluskey I guess.

That's exactly the scenario I envisage (or, it's one of two similar ones if I'm being pedantic: mass defections or a new Alliance with an SDP2. That would bring votes they couldn't otherwise win. The question is to what extent it would bring seats too: it didn't do the original Alliance many favours.

This seems to make the assumption that the Lib-Dems are just the right wing of the Labour Party. I have never voted for them as their enthusiasm for ever more Europe put me off, but I did appreciate the work they did in the coalition and they are at their best when actually being liberal. Would this survive a mass influx from a party that thought 90 day detention and ID cards were good ideas?

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

I think there's about an 8/1 chance that they might end up with more than 50. It's not inconceivable that they could top 100. These are very strange times.

Whilst it is correct that the Lib Dems did not contest the 2 Notts seats last Thursday they certainly had an impact on the close result . The Independents aka Bingham First in the Bingham area are almost all Lib Dems led by George Davidson Lib Dem councillor for Bingham East on Rushcliffe BC 2003 -2011 and now Independent councillor for the ward along with Susan Hull also Independent councillor and several times previous Lib Dem candidate , The group also have control of Bingham TC with 11 of the 14 councillors ( Conservatives have the other 3 ) . The narrow Conservative win on Thursday was down to the none Bingham parts of CC division which just outweighed the Independent ( Lib Dem ) majority in the 2 Bingham wards.

tlg86 said:

nunu said:

Sandpit said:

Reminds me of my favourite Twitter account from election night:
https://twitter.com/libdemdeposits

They lost £170,000 in lost deposits!

I could see a Lib Dem revival, but I wonder what % of GB seats they will actually contest at the next election?

All of them, I would bet

FrancisUrquhart said:

Soft soap overload....

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/aug/06/david-gilmour-ive-been-bonded-to-charlie-since-he-was-three-we-were-incensed-by-the-injustice

There are several lessons from the Charlie Gilmour episode

1) If you are studying History at Oxbridge, basing the part of your legal defence concerning a historic monument on "I dunno what it was", is not a good strategy.
2) Using the "I was off my brains on a cocktail of illegal drugs and alcohol" defense is not recommended either
3) When delivering an apology to a court, try and at least suggest that you mean it. Making it plainly obvious that it was written for you (and you don't care) is not a good idea.
4) After delivering an apology, which explains how sorry you are and how seriously you are taking the matter, spending the rest of the trial ignoring the proceedings, making faces and sniggering to yourself isn't recommended either.

I always thought his lawyer must have been an idiot.

Yes also David Herdson is correct and the Lib Dem recovery is patchy with some results bumping along the bottom whist others show a strong recovery . On the other hand Labour results are sort of average at best but not the disaster you may expect from a Corbyn led forecast wipeout , the Conservative results varying from ok to appalling do not reflect their big lead in national polls and UKIP results almost all show a party in terminal decline .
Next year's annual council results will give a clearer picture .

david_herdson said:

Essexit said:

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, if I were a libdem, and my definition of success in 2020 was 12 to 14 seats on a10% vote share, then I'd be quite content with this year's local elections, both May's results and by-elections.

I think there's about an 8/1 chance that they might end up with more than 50. It's not inconceivable that they could top 100. These are very strange times.

Agree, with the caveat that this is only realistic with substantial defections from Labour, i.e. the LDs going into the next election with most of their sitting MPs having been elected as Labour.

I'd rather have the LDs than Labour as the centre-left party - not that I'd vote for either of them - but a kind of reverse takeover by the metropolitan, Blairite wing of Labour would somewhat dull their appeal. Still, better than Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, and McCluskey I guess.

That's exactly the scenario I envisage (or, it's one of two similar ones if I'm being pedantic: mass defections or a new Alliance with an SDP2. That would bring votes they couldn't otherwise win. The question is to what extent it would bring seats too: it didn't do the original Alliance many favours.

I'd say 8-1 is about right. The electorate differs from the 1980s in one crucial respect. It has given itself permission to be racist. And that will always be the most potent source of political cleavage.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

edmundintokyo said:

Somebody should poll how the LibDems would do if they had Clegg back. I know he didn't go out on a high note, but between the clown-shoes Brexit negotiations and the Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party there might be a market not just for centrism, but also for competence and experience.

To a party outsider, that seems to be the real barrier to LD progress. Farron is far less convincing as a leader than Clegg, and I can't think of any serious talent emerging.

They're pretty 'hollowed out' north of the border, though I know little about their operation in England - do they have the candidates to make real progress, or are they just hoping for Labour hopelessness sending centrist voters their way?

(also, bravo for 'Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party')

How did they gain those fptp seats in the Scottish Parliament? Surprising.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sigh....England collapsing....cook & hales gone.

Hey ho, not a great start when we need to bat all day.

At least a positive contribution from Hales for a change, someone please remind me why we have an opening batsman with a 28 average?

Mr. Abroad, you're a silly sausage.

Mr. Malmesbury, not all hate crime is as hateful or criminal as it might seem to be:
https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/761457794323189760

I agree with you that many seem to want to cover-up what's going on. Whether they succeed or not, it's a huge problem.

David_Evershed said:

Lib Dems will be going nowhere if they see themselves and are seen by others as Labour Lite.

Lib Dems need to be and to be seen as a liberal anti authoritarian party not left wing or right wing.

Liberal freedoms require policies to limit government intervention in personal and business life. Whilst the Lib Dems have led on individual freedom, they have suffered by supporting the protectionist EU instead of following their traditional liberal free trade approach to the world as a whole. Brexit presents an opportunity to do this.

The Social Democrat influence has diluted such liberal attitudes. A new influx of ex-Labour supporters would push policies further away from a traditional liberal attitude and towards anti liberal government intervention in the lives of people and businesses.

If the Lib Dems were to return to their traditional liberal mindset which their orange wing were showing signs of doing, then they could expect to gain far more votes from Conservative supporters, who are afterall the majority of voters.

The lib Dems need the likes of David Laws and Danny Alexander to become prominent again. Even the return og Nick Clegg would probably be a net gain for liberalism in the party.

I'm not convinced there's much of a market for classical liberalism. Maybe 5% or so, but generally speaking British voters hate freedom.

David_Evershed said:

Lib Dems will be going nowhere if they see themselves and are seen by others as Labour Lite.

Lib Dems need to be and to be seen as a liberal anti authoritarian party not left wing or right wing.

Liberal freedoms require policies to limit government intervention in personal and business life. Whilst the Lib Dems have led on individual freedom, they have suffered by supporting the protectionist EU instead of following their traditional liberal free trade approach to the world as a whole. Brexit presents an opportunity to do this.

The Social Democrat influence has diluted such liberal attitudes. A new influx of ex-Labour supporters would push policies further away from a traditional liberal attitude and towards anti liberal government intervention in the lives of people and businesses.

If the Lib Dems were to return to their traditional liberal mindset which their orange wing were showing signs of doing, then they could expect to gain far more votes from Conservative supporters, who are afterall the majority of voters.

The lib Dems need the likes of David Laws and Danny Alexander to become prominent again. Even the return og Nick Clegg would probably be a net gain for liberalism in the party.

This is a much clearer version of what I was trying to say...

edmundintokyo said:

David_Evershed said:

Lib

I'm not convinced there's much of a market for classical liberalism. Maybe 5% or so, but generally speaking British voters hate freedom.

I wouldn't go that far, but I'm also not convinced there's much of a market for that approach. 50% of the LD vote jumped ship immediately upon the coalition, not even waiting to see what they would get or if the trade offs would be worth the price, many were obviously upset they were not being Labourlite. That they were so punished by the voters for working with the Tories means those advocating anything other than Labourlite will probably be seen as Torylite, even if that is not the case. They seem to prefer talk of progressive alliances (code for Labourlite) than emphasizing the liberal bits.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sigh....England collapsing....cook & hales gone.

Hey ho, not a great start when we need to bat all day.

At least a positive contribution from Hales for a change, someone please remind me why we have an opening batsman with a 28 average?

They've tried so many that haven't worked, they feel the need to give someone, anyone, a longer run to see if they can make it work - so few matches in, a few good scores in a row would get his average to respectable.

I was detained by the Canadian border police yesterday, along with my son. Walked to the middle of a bridge that marks the boundary with the US, then came back having been invited to do so by some tourist information posted in the town we're staying in (Edmundston). Let's just say it's not encouraged these days. Apparently, if you cross the border even by a few inches you then have to proceed to the American border police. We didn't so caused an incident. The Americans are very strict on these things. Luckily, the Canadians are a bit more laid back and let us go after I showed them the offending material. "We'll have to do something about that," the policewoman said.

Mr. Observer, glad nothing serious came of it.

edmundintokyo said:

David_Evershed said:

Lib Dems will be going nowhere if they see themselves and are seen by others as Labour Lite.

Lib Dems need to be and to be seen as a liberal anti authoritarian party not left wing or right wing.

Liberal freedoms require policies to limit government intervention in personal and business life. Whilst the Lib Dems have led on individual freedom, they have suffered by supporting the protectionist EU instead of following their traditional liberal free trade approach to the world as a whole. Brexit presents an opportunity to do this.

The Social Democrat influence has diluted such liberal attitudes. A new influx of ex-Labour supporters would push policies further away from a traditional liberal attitude and towards anti liberal government intervention in the lives of people and businesses.

If the Lib Dems were to return to their traditional liberal mindset which their orange wing were showing signs of doing, then they could expect to gain far more votes from Conservative supporters, who are afterall the majority of voters.

The lib Dems need the likes of David Laws and Danny Alexander to become prominent again. Even the return og Nick Clegg would probably be a net gain for liberalism in the party.

I'm not convinced there's much of a market for classical liberalism. Maybe 5% or so, but generally speaking British voters hate freedom.

How do PB contributors feel about freedom?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Problem England have with Hales is we don't seem to have anybody waiting in the wings. We have tried 3 other openers over the past few years & they have all been found to be technically deficient.

Just keep rotating these duffers until Haseeb Hameed has enough experience to take over for the next 15 years.

nunu said:

I was GE 2015 for laugh (fast forward to Balls), and this lady psephologist said the libdems lost as many votes to ukip as they lost to greens.

Probably the 'protest' votes.

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

David_Evershed said:

Lib Dems will be going nowhere if they see themselves and are seen by others as Labour Lite.

Lib Dems need to be and to be seen as a liberal anti authoritarian party not left wing or right wing.

Liberal freedoms require policies to limit government intervention in personal and business life. Whilst the Lib Dems have led on individual freedom, they have suffered by supporting the protectionist EU instead of following their traditional liberal free trade approach to the world as a whole. Brexit presents an opportunity to do this.

The Social Democrat influence has diluted such liberal attitudes. A new influx of ex-Labour supporters would push policies further away from a traditional liberal attitude and towards anti liberal government intervention in the lives of people and businesses.

If the Lib Dems were to return to their traditional liberal mindset which their orange wing were showing signs of doing, then they could expect to gain far more votes from Conservative supporters, who are afterall the majority of voters.

The lib Dems need the likes of David Laws and Danny Alexander to become prominent again. Even the return og Nick Clegg would probably be a net gain for liberalism in the party.

I'm not convinced there's much of a market for classical liberalism. Maybe 5% or so, but generally speaking British voters hate freedom.

How do PB contributors feel about freedom?

Largely opposed, but less so than the electorate at large.

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

David_Evershed said:

Lib Dems will be going nowhere if they see themselves and are seen by others as Labour Lite.

Lib Dems need to be and to be seen as a liberal anti authoritarian party not left wing or right wing.

Liberal freedoms require policies to limit government intervention in personal and business life. Whilst the Lib Dems have led on individual freedom, they have suffered by supporting the protectionist EU instead of following their traditional liberal free trade approach to the world as a whole. Brexit presents an opportunity to do this.

The Social Democrat influence has diluted such liberal attitudes. A new influx of ex-Labour supporters would push policies further away from a traditional liberal attitude and towards anti liberal government intervention in the lives of people and businesses.

If the Lib Dems were to return to their traditional liberal mindset which their orange wing were showing signs of doing, then they could expect to gain far more votes from Conservative supporters, who are afterall the majority of voters.

The lib Dems need the likes of David Laws and Danny Alexander to become prominent again. Even the return og Nick Clegg would probably be a net gain for liberalism in the party.

I'm not convinced there's much of a market for classical liberalism. Maybe 5% or so, but generally speaking British voters hate freedom.

How do PB contributors feel about freedom?

Pretty much in favour of it!

What I don't see is how a party calling itself Liberal Democrat can be such cheerleaders for the illiberal and undemocratic EU. If they dropped that they might attract my vote, but in practice they're more likely to double down on trying to appeal to "The 48%".

maaarsh said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

maaarsh said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Problem England have with Hales is we don't seem to have anybody waiting in the wings. We have tried 3 other openers over the past few years & they have all been found to be technically deficient.

Just keep rotating these duffers until Haseeb Hameed has enough experience to take over for the next 15 years.

I have heard he is supposed to be pretty damn good, but never seen him play. England had him net against Mills when he was just 16!

Yep serious talent - very measured in first class cricket at the moment, but he's averaging over 40 opening in division 1 as a 19 year old, so you can forgive him taking his time.

Has the record for most runs in an Under 19 ODI series, set aged 17 against South Africa so he should be able to up the tempo when the mood takes him.

Good to hear we've got some good talent coming through the ranks, hope he's being well looked after by the development teams.

justin124 said:

I cannot see the LibDems appealing to left of centre Labour voters in the foreseeable future. For all their troubles Labour will have little difficulty in reminding such people that the LibDems helped put the Tories in office and can be expected to do so again if given the chance.Those who voted LibDem in 2010 and earlier will not forget their sense of betrayal.

That will be a decade old in 2020, and I can see the Coalition being seen already as a golden era of good government. Foxjr and his mates are coming round to the LDs despite tuition fees (which seem to have been around forever to their generation) as they like the LD stance over foreign wars and Europe. It is very possible for the LDs to gain a lot of the youth vote.

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/761875384967262209

Start at letter A...

justin124 said:

I cannot see the LibDems appealing to left of centre Labour voters in the foreseeable future. For all their troubles Labour will have little difficulty in reminding such people that the LibDems helped put the Tories in office and can be expected to do so again if given the chance.Those who voted LibDem in 2010 and earlier will not forget their sense of betrayal.

Betrayal is an odd choice of word - Despite no formal pact in place, Labour supporters have long voted Lib Dem as an anti-Tory vote where they thought it would be most advantageous to them. – Betrayal would only apply if Labour regarded the Lib Dems as their own, personally useful idiots. - Ahh.

nunu said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

edmundintokyo said:

Somebody should poll how the LibDems would do if they had Clegg back. I know he didn't go out on a high note, but between the clown-shoes Brexit negotiations and the Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party there might be a market not just for centrism, but also for competence and experience.

To a party outsider, that seems to be the real barrier to LD progress. Farron is far less convincing as a leader than Clegg, and I can't think of any serious talent emerging.

They're pretty 'hollowed out' north of the border, though I know little about their operation in England - do they have the candidates to make real progress, or are they just hoping for Labour hopelessness sending centrist voters their way?

(also, bravo for 'Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party')

How did they gain those fptp seats in the Scottish Parliament? Surprising.

They correctly identified seats which had been LD in the past and where they were most likely to be able to mount a strong challenge to the SNP (e.g. North East Fife) and concentrated resources there. Paid off, albeit in a minor way.

Their leader in Scotland, Willie Rennie, seems a fairly affable bloke and had a reasonably high profile campaign.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Abroad, you're a silly sausage.

Mr. Malmesbury, not all hate crime is as hateful or criminal as it might seem to be:
https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/761457794323189760

I agree with you that many seem to want to cover-up what's going on. Whether they succeed or not, it's a huge problem.

What a shock his accuser was a university lecturer...

Problem they are having in the US is having spread a lot of nonsense, they are now getting bit by their own with claims of even more absurd proportions from their students .

Not so surprising - there is something about being on the staff of a university that convinces a number of people that they are Socrates, Plato and Aristotle at the same time.

Many years ago (while acting as a rep in the student union) I had to try and convince a junior lecturer that acting as judge, jury and executioner all by himself was (a) wrong, (b) probably illegal. I was quite tempted to drop the Student Union lawyers on him - he was victimising a student. He was utterly convinced that he was in the right - he actually told me that since he was an academic, he was entitled to do whatever his conscience told him.

rkrkrk said:

Just over evens on Hilary getting between 44% and 50% of the vote.
She hasn't been polling over 50% very often... and feels as though this time Gary Johnson may take a reasonable number of votes...

And Trump hasn't yet started any TV advertising. Ads like this on heavy rotation will surely have an impact.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/761653875413618689

MarkHopkins said:

Malmesbury said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

Those Daily Mail reports on the Russell Square attack are pretty devastating.

Recall how desperate everyone was - including some on here - to rule out terrorism/radicalisation. The Met practically ruled it out during the attack, while still managing to diagnose the knifeman as a Type 3 Paranoid Insomniac with Diabetes just by "looking" at him.

Then we had TSE and Toryjim on here repeating it was a "chubby white guy", "remember the Glasgow bin man", like stereophonical morons.

Then it slowly emerged that he was not "a chubby white guy", he was a Somali. He was a Muslim. He was foreign born. Now we see that he was devout Muslim, very religious, possibly radicalised by his peers.

Feck this. We are being lied to by the police. There is a broad and studied effort to deny terror elements to these attacks, at all costs - to overtly lie to the people - until the lies are unsustainable and the truth must be faced - by which time the authorities hope all focus will have shifted.

Its quite a contrast to how loudly some people tried to claim that there had been a huge increase in 'hate crimes' after the EU referendum.

From time to time I chat with a mid grade social worker - sort of bus stop acquaintance. He enjoys relating life inside the political bubble his managers live in, which contrasts so much with the reality of the world in which he actually works.

One things struck him - that in the managerial bubble, they are absolutely terrified that a pogrom will happen any second now. That any "incident" will lead to Yugoslavia or Rawanda....

For example, the appointment of May as Prime Minister was regarded as insanely dangerous - her instance on prosecuting all those there is a credible legal case against in Rotherham is seen as utterly evil. Because what is coming out in the court cases will increase "attacks" and may lead to a "major attack".

Given such a belief system - that denial is not merely an option, but the only moral course - what we are seeing is inevitable.

Then they are fools. It is the cover-up and sense of injustice, which will much more likely cause a backlash.

Quite. The only way to deal with such problems is openness, and equal treatment before the law. The communitarian approach of not prosecuting/concealing crimes on a racial basis is... racist.

It is quite useful to try a search-and-replace on a story involving ethnic groups. Substitute different ethnic groups. See how your thoughts and responses change. It is a rather good way of examining your own prejudices.

For example, take some posts by Roger or Tyson that involve their... observations on the British WWC. Substitute, say "Rastifarians"....

Malmesbury said:

Quite. The only way to deal with such problems is openness, and equal treatment before the law. The communitarian approach of not prosecuting/concealing crimes on a racial basis is... racist.

It is quite useful to try a search-and-replace on a story involving ethnic groups. Substitute different ethnic groups. See how your thoughts and responses change. It is a rather good way of examining your own prejudices.

For example, take some posts by Roger or Tyson that involve their... observations on the British WWC. Substitute, say "Rastifarians"....

But nobody on PB says, e.g., that all WWC might need to be deported or sent to internment (i.e. concentration) camps.

rcs1000 said:

FPT

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Freggles said:

Ahem...

Before the vote I was shot down for saying:

"Any opportunities to produce new Nissan models will be given to non-UK plants until a trade deal is ironed out - too much uncertainty. Cue redundancies in Sunderland.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested."

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-in-sunderland-plant-until-brexit-deal-clear-but-boss-reasonably-optimistic-1-8052373

Mr Gosn 'has previous' - from twelve years ago:

Nissan may quit UK over euro
Nissan's president chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, has repeated warnings that its Sunderland plant could lose production of one of its most important cars if Britain remains outside the euro.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2004/jan/07/motoring.theeuro

Leaving behind a £2bn investment, and choosing to prioritise investment in other Nissan plants are two totally different things.

Being, shall we say, 'unreliable' over the future of Nissan investment in the UK may be the same things......

But, uncertainty over this is the killer. A pound of investment that goes to the Spanish plant rather than the British one never comes back.

Do you recall that argument being made over the UK joining the Euro? By a Nissan chap.....name escapes me......

I can't believe I'm having this argument with you.

Right now, the management of Nissan does not know if Britain the EU will have a free trade agreement. The EU/EEA car market is 5x the size of the UK one. Until they know what relationship the UK will have with EU, of course they will hold off on investment decisions.

Which line of that argument do you find contentious?

The argument would be a lot more persuasive if the management of Nissan hadn't used exactly the same argument (with direr consequences) over the UK's failure to join the Euro - at least this time they are only saying 'hold investment' rather than 'shut down production'.....which is progress, I guess.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Root....edge...drop.....phew.....my hopes of a day out tomorrow still alive....

Root and Vince making steady progress, 20 mins to hold on until lunch.

EPG said:

Malmesbury said:

Quite. The only way to deal with such problems is openness, and equal treatment before the law. The communitarian approach of not prosecuting/concealing crimes on a racial basis is... racist.

It is quite useful to try a search-and-replace on a story involving ethnic groups. Substitute different ethnic groups. See how your thoughts and responses change. It is a rather good way of examining your own prejudices.

For example, take some posts by Roger or Tyson that involve their... observations on the British WWC. Substitute, say "Rastifarians"....

But nobody on PB says, e.g., that all WWC might need to be deported or sent to internment (i.e. concentration) camps.

I think that saying that (say) Rastifarians have innately negative characteristics as regards their ideas, beliefs, morals etc in the forthright terms that some posters use for their chosen "out groups" would be regarded as racsist.

The problem is that many people are now playing a game of racial trumps - where the level of dislike/hatred you can show to a group is factor of where the group ranks...

Saying "I hate {ethnic group x}" is always evil, wrong and stupid.

Malmesbury said:

EPG said:

Malmesbury said:

Quite. The only way to deal with such problems is openness, and equal treatment before the law. The communitarian approach of not prosecuting/concealing crimes on a racial basis is... racist.

It is quite useful to try a search-and-replace on a story involving ethnic groups. Substitute different ethnic groups. See how your thoughts and responses change. It is a rather good way of examining your own prejudices.

For example, take some posts by Roger or Tyson that involve their... observations on the British WWC. Substitute, say "Rastifarians"....

But nobody on PB says, e.g., that all WWC might need to be deported or sent to internment (i.e. concentration) camps.

I think that saying that (say) Rastifarians have innately negative characteristics as regards their ideas, beliefs, morals etc in the forthright terms that some posters use for their chosen "out groups" would be regarded as racsist.

The problem is that many people are now playing a game of racial trumps - where the level of dislike/hatred you can show to a group is factor of where the group ranks...

Saying "I hate " is always evil, wrong and stupid.

On a similar but slightly different note, Rick Rubin has a good term he has used for a while, the Oppression Olympics, when people are willing to rank different racial groups on how much they will be offended / are oppressed by something that affects us all.

Is true of parts of the right and the left.

Interesting thoughts from David.There EUref has provided political parties with highly valuable information.In the LibDem case the 48% Yes are up for grabs and they will know exactly where they are.They're off life support,conscious and breathing without the aid of pumps.Distinctive policies on electoral reform and drug policy reform are major selling points for them and will have road-tested to find there is a harvest in votes the amongst the NOTAs.
As for Labour,it is clear the key relationship in the PLP has broken down and seems pretty irreconciable..Jeremy 1st act when re-elected needs to call for a replacement for Tom Watson,who will have alternative but to resign and Labour will have a further Deputy Leader election post-conference.The failure of Labour to elect a woman hurts which is why there needs to be an All-Woman Shortlist for women.
Therefore,a Deputy Leader market needs to be tissued on that basis.Further more the field can be narrowed down to removing any women who supported the Iraq War.Lisa Nandy would be clear fav but look to the list of 40 MPs who are supporting the leader,not those who are against.Jeremy needs his Barbara Castle, a rock of steel.DianeAbott,Kate Osamor,Cat Smith are possibilities but the clever play would be Gisela Stuart.