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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems are coming off life-support: something else fo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems are coming off life-support: something else for Labour to worry about
We’ve not heard much from the Lib Dems lately. The party which until last year supplied the Deputy Prime Minister, the Business Secretary and three other cabinet ministers, which before the election had more than fifty MPs and which had been treated by the media almost on an equal footing with the Conservatives and Labour simply disappeared from view.
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https://twitter.com/libdemdeposits
Right now, the management of Nissan does not know if Britain the EU will have a free trade agreement. The EU/EEA car market is 5x the size of the UK one. Until they know what relationship the UK will have with EU, of course they will hold off on investment decisions.
Which line of that argument do you find contentious?
Of course, as we're highly likely to have a free trade agreement with the EU, this is likely to be a complete non issue, with the proviso that we should get heads of terms agreed as soon as possible.
TMS sans Aggers but with Dan norcross and Ed Smith in particular is lightweight and yet flabby. Why Ed Smith has to tell everyone what part of the day it is Every time he's on is a small but regular annoyance. Blowers of course gets things wrong more than right in his commentary of events...
Scrapheap. Your man in a kipper grump.
Anyone more for the PB fantasy league... just a week to go now...
I'd rather have the LDs than Labour as the centre-left party - not that I'd vote for either of them - but a kind of reverse takeover by the metropolitan, Blairite wing of Labour would somewhat dull their appeal. Still, better than Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, and McCluskey I guess.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/aug/06/david-gilmour-ive-been-bonded-to-charlie-since-he-was-three-we-were-incensed-by-the-injustice
They're pretty 'hollowed out' north of the border, though I know little about their operation in England - do they have the candidates to make real progress, or are they just hoping for Labour hopelessness sending centrist voters their way?
(also, bravo for 'Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party')
1) If you are studying History at Oxbridge, basing the part of your legal defence concerning a historic monument on "I dunno what it was", is not a good strategy.
2) Using the "I was off my brains on a cocktail of illegal drugs and alcohol" defense is not recommended either
3) When delivering an apology to a court, try and at least suggest that you mean it. Making it plainly obvious that it was written for you (and you don't care) is not a good idea.
4) After delivering an apology, which explains how sorry you are and how seriously you are taking the matter, spending the rest of the trial ignoring the proceedings, making faces and sniggering to yourself isn't recommended either.
I always thought his lawyer must have been an idiot.
Next year's annual council results will give a clearer picture .
Lib Dems need to be and to be seen as a liberal anti authoritarian party not left wing or right wing.
Liberal freedoms require policies to limit government intervention in personal and business life. Whilst the Lib Dems have led on individual freedom, they have suffered by supporting the protectionist EU instead of following their traditional liberal free trade approach to the world as a whole. Brexit presents an opportunity to do this.
The Social Democrat influence has diluted such liberal attitudes. A new influx of ex-Labour supporters would push policies further away from a traditional liberal attitude and towards anti liberal government intervention in the lives of people and businesses.
If the Lib Dems were to return to their traditional liberal mindset which their orange wing were showing signs of doing, then they could expect to gain far more votes from Conservative supporters, who are afterall the majority of voters.
The lib Dems need the likes of David Laws and Danny Alexander to become prominent again. Even the return og Nick Clegg would probably be a net gain for liberalism in the party.
One things struck him - that in the managerial bubble, they are absolutely terrified that a pogrom will happen any second now. That any "incident" will lead to Yugoslavia or Rawanda....
For example, the appointment of May as Prime Minister was regarded as insanely dangerous - her instance on prosecuting all those there is a credible legal case against in Rotherham is seen as utterly evil. Because what is coming out in the court cases will increase "attacks" and may lead to a "major attack".
Given such a belief system - that denial is not merely an option, but the only moral course - what we are seeing is inevitable.
I have no idea what they decided to choose that sport to trial 360o video.
At least a positive contribution from Hales for a change, someone please remind me why we have an opening batsman with a 28 average?
Mr. Malmesbury, not all hate crime is as hateful or criminal as it might seem to be:
https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/761457794323189760
I agree with you that many seem to want to cover-up what's going on. Whether they succeed or not, it's a huge problem.
Then they are fools. It is the cover-up and sense of injustice, which will much more likely cause a backlash.
Problem they are having in the US is having spread a lot of nonsense, they are now getting bit by their own with claims of even more absurd proportions from their students .
It's really rather WTF, but sobering. Whilst I'm tempted to mute them - I resist, just. I'm sure 95% of them are perfectly sensible on other subjects.
Has the record for most runs in an Under 19 ODI series, set aged 17 against South Africa so he should be able to up the tempo when the mood takes him.
Just so. I suppose they could try to say the reasons have gone away, as by beating them so easily Corbyn will have shown he isn't crap, but it is not convincing.
You tinker.
Also, I missed the vote on whether or not racism was ok. What was the result?
What I don't see is how a party calling itself Liberal Democrat can be such cheerleaders for the illiberal and undemocratic EU. If they dropped that they might attract my vote, but in practice they're more likely to double down on trying to appeal to "The 48%".
On the current topic, I think Labour MPs have been selected under the Blairite rules not just for ideological centrism but for feeble compliance. They will be annoyed by Corbyn's likely victory, but quietly serve out their time. Defecting currently looks worse for their careers than the risk, but not the certainty, of deselection.
The problem in the second-last paragraph for the Lib Dems is that it is not clear they see their destiny as a carapace housing the Blairites they used to struggle against.
Reuters/Ipsos
Clinton 42 (-1)
Trump 39 (+4)
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10G2BQ
Since 1983 (excluding 2015, following the coalition) their GE percentage has varied between 17% and 25%.
So 8/1 would be a good bet if you think that the LibDems will return to the average of the last 30 years.
However there are a lot of unknowns, mainly what will happen to Labour but also what will happen to UKIP/a potential UKIP spinoff party. UKIP/Spinoff are very unlikely to make a breakthrough to more than half a dozen seats even if they poll in the high teens/low twenties.
She hasn't been polling over 50% very often... and feels as though this time Gary Johnson may take a reasonable number of votes...
Their leader in Scotland, Willie Rennie, seems a fairly affable bloke and had a reasonably high profile campaign.
Many years ago (while acting as a rep in the student union) I had to try and convince a junior lecturer that acting as judge, jury and executioner all by himself was (a) wrong, (b) probably illegal. I was quite tempted to drop the Student Union lawyers on him - he was victimising a student. He was utterly convinced that he was in the right - he actually told me that since he was an academic, he was entitled to do whatever his conscience told him.
Salford and Eccles CLP: Corbyn 60 Smith 14
Beverly and Holderness CLP : Corbyn
Camberwell and Peckham CLP : Corbyn 108 Smith 93
Great Yarmouth CLP : Corbyn
Monmouth CLP: Corbyn
Coltswolds: Corbyn
Bury North: Corbyn 35 Smith 16
Preseli Pembrokshire : Corbyn
Stoke South: Corbyn
Middlesbrough: Corbyn
Newcastle under Lyme: Corbyn
Monmouthshire: Corbyn
Scunthorpe: Corbyn 42 Smith 17
Charnwood: Smith
South Swindon: Smith 34 Corbyn 23
Leicester East: Smith
But the Musicians Unions nominates Smith.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/761653875413618689
It is quite useful to try a search-and-replace on a story involving ethnic groups. Substitute different ethnic groups. See how your thoughts and responses change. It is a rather good way of examining your own prejudices.
For example, take some posts by Roger or Tyson that involve their... observations on the British WWC. Substitute, say "Rastifarians"....
In 1997 the LibDems got 46 seats,
52 in 2001,
62 in 2005 and
57 in 2010,
with percentages between 16.8% and 23%.
The problem is that many people are now playing a game of racial trumps - where the level of dislike/hatred you can show to a group is factor of where the group ranks...
Saying "I hate {ethnic group x}" is always evil, wrong and stupid.
Is true of parts of the right and the left.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36990537/nigerias-under-17-squad-wiped-out-as-half-are-older-than-17
As for Labour,it is clear the key relationship in the PLP has broken down and seems pretty irreconciable..Jeremy 1st act when re-elected needs to call for a replacement for Tom Watson,who will have alternative but to resign and Labour will have a further Deputy Leader election post-conference.The failure of Labour to elect a woman hurts which is why there needs to be an All-Woman Shortlist for women.
Therefore,a Deputy Leader market needs to be tissued on that basis.Further more the field can be narrowed down to removing any women who supported the Iraq War.Lisa Nandy would be clear fav but look to the list of 40 MPs who are supporting the leader,not those who are against.Jeremy needs his Barbara Castle, a rock of steel.DianeAbott,Kate Osamor,Cat Smith are possibilities but the clever play would be Gisela Stuart.