Any Labour MPs deselected might be well advised to resign their seats and force a by election at the time. They would probably be well placed to hold on - Taverne style - and defeat the official Labour candidate selected to replace them.That might well be sufficient to secure their re-election in 2020.
Yes, there will be a few well liked MPs with good local profiles who should be able to see off a by-election. That route is preferable than standing independently at the GE where party labels influence the vote more.
I've always said though that any mass defection, whether it be to SDP2, LDs, Co-Op or whatever, needs to happen *before* the deselections start, otherwise it just looks like sour grapes from the incumbent MPs.
They would still have to fight the by election as Independent Labour or whatever, but if re-elected - as I would expect them to be - they would be well placed to win again in 2020. Moreover, if the boundary changes do go through deselection will not arise until 2019 - so that any consequential by elections will still be well remembered in May 2020.
I agree with that, for those MPs who are well respected locally and have enough of a personal vote to see them through as independents. That won't be all of them though.
If Corbyn wins I don't think Labour MPs will defect but wait until an election defeat. If after an election defeat he is re-elected leader or another hard left candidate like McDonnell wins the leadership then there is a real prospect of moderate Labour MPs forming a new party with the LDs.
For the moment I can't see the LDs rising that much in the polls unless Brexit also leads to the UK leaving the Single Market too in which large numbers of moderate Tories and Labour voters who voted Remain may well move to the yellows
They may not have a choice. The boundary review, re-selections and de-selections will loom. Besides, while waiting for defeat is an option if you represent St Helens, it's more of a risk if you hold a seat that's currently marginal, or might be after the review.
It is far from certain that the new boundaries will be approved anyway. A good few Tories are likely to rebel - indeed a few did so in the last Parliament.
No chance of that this time, it'll be a full-blown three line whip for the Tories - with anyone personally affected offered a seat on the red benches if not enough retire in 2020.
Another related dilemma will be what to do with the redundant MEPs, 19 Tories I believe.
It was a thre line whip last time! I think there will be several Tory rebels from Wales alone.
It wasn't put to a vote last time, as the LDs flounced on their promise to support it when the AV referendum failed to deliver the 'right' result.
I would have thought that the Government whips will be working very hard to get this through, as the rebalancing is likely to favour them as a party at the next election, although it way well cost a couple of seats in Wales.
Expect a load of old duffers (Ken Clarke etc) to announce their retirement, and expect a few more to be suitably honoured with Knighthoods or Lordships for their service either before or after the election. I'm not personally a huge fan of this sort of patronage, but we have to take the world as it is and the whips will use all the levers they have available to get the boundary revisions through.
I wouldn't be surprised if Corbyn is also persuaded to support it as a means of clearing out PLP malcontents. Obviously, that doesn't mean his MPs would follow but quite a few would.
Planes always 'Vanish' from radar about where this one was last seen, as there's a big black spot over the sea. It did declare an emergency and was returning to Algiers though. Hopefully know more soon one way or the other.
Planes always 'Vanish' from radar about where this one was last seen, as there's a big black spot over the sea. It did declare an emergency and was returning to Algiers though. Hopefully know more soon one way or the other.
They may not have a choice. The boundary review, re-selections and de-selections will loom. Besides, while waiting for defeat is an option if you represent St Helens, it's more of a risk if you hold a seat that's currently marginal, or might be after the review.
It is far from certain that the new boundaries will be approved anyway. A good few Tories are likely to rebel - indeed a few did so in the last Parliament.
No chance of that this time, it'll be a full-blown three line whip for the Tories - with anyone personally affected offered a seat on the red benches if not enough retire in 2020.
Another related dilemma will be what to do with the redundant MEPs, 19 Tories I believe.
It was a thre line whip last time! I think there will be several Tory rebels from Wales alone.
It wasn't put to a vote last time, as the LDs flounced on their promise to support it when the AV referendum failed to deliver the 'right' result.
I would have thought that the Government whips will be working very hard to get this through, as the rebalancing is likely to favour them as a party at the next election, although it way well cost a couple of seats in Wales.
Expect a load of old duffers (Ken Clarke etc) to announce their retirement, and expect a few more to be suitably honoured with Knighthoods or Lordships for their service either before or after the election. I'm not personally a huge fan of this sort of patronage, but we have to take the world as it is and the whips will use all the levers they have available to get the boundary revisions through.
I wouldn't be surprised if Corbyn is also persuaded to support it as a means of clearing out PLP malcontents. Obviously, that doesn't mean his MPs would follow but quite a few would.
Yes, I was thinking the same about Corbyn, but also that the govt would be mad to rely on any Opposition votes for this one - remembering Ed Miliband and the Syria vote as a recent example of that folly.
AIUI there's one Commons vote and that's it, if the vote falls then we keep the old boundaries and 650 MPs again for the 2020 election.
Planes always 'Vanish' from radar about where this one was last seen, as there's a big black spot over the sea. It did declare an emergency and was returning to Algiers though. Hopefully know more soon one way or the other.
....On the current topic, I think Labour MPs have been selected under the Blairite rules not just for ideological centrism but for feeble compliance. They will be annoyed by Corbyn's likely victory, but quietly serve out their time. Defecting currently looks worse for their careers than the risk, but not the certainty, of deselection. The problem in the second-last paragraph for the Lib Dems is that it is not clear they see their destiny as a carapace housing the Blairites they used to struggle against.
2018 is crunch time for the non-Corvyn supporting Labour MPs. The boundary proposals are due to be published in 5 weeks time (13th Sept). We then have in 2017 consultations and somewhen in 2018 get the boundaries tabled to parliament. At that point Lab MPs opposed to Corbyn face near certain deselection. They either accept retirement or jump ship into the LDs or a new grouping. A group of 100 going 2 ways, iLAB or LibDem.
They are not due to be placed before Parliament until Autumn 2018.
Yes, found the statement "Final recommendations must be submitted to the Parliament in September 2018". But it will become clear much by the start of 2018 what 90%+ of the boundaries will look like.
Good afternoon all. I guess it's me but watching the Rio Olympics is leaving me cold. Indeed it's getting bloody boring. Any decent sport would walk away from the present Olympic Movement.
....On the current topic, I think Labour MPs have been selected under the Blairite rules not just for ideological centrism but for feeble compliance. They will be annoyed by Corbyn's likely victory, but quietly serve out their time. Defecting currently looks worse for their careers than the risk, but not the certainty, of deselection. The problem in the second-last paragraph for the Lib Dems is that it is not clear they see their destiny as a carapace housing the Blairites they used to struggle against.
2018 is crunch time for the non-Corvyn supporting Labour MPs. The boundary proposals are due to be published in 5 weeks time (13th Sept). We then have in 2017 consultations and somewhen in 2018 get the boundaries tabled to parliament. At that point Lab MPs opposed to Corbyn face near certain deselection. They either accept retirement or jump ship into the LDs or a new grouping. A group of 100 going 2 ways, iLAB or LibDem.
The reduction of seats (like Article 50 invokation and TSE's AV thread) is always in a future that never arrives. It is not something that the public get concerned about, but agitates a lot of MPs including many Tories. I suspect that it will be kicked into the long grass once more. Why cause needless trouble and distraction amongst your lobby fodder when trying to pass contentious legislation on a wafer thin majority?
The process is so long that Mrs May has to change the terms this year (such as stick with 650). She really must get the boundaries updated to reduce the inbuilt advantage Labour have.
Inside the Games Quite brilliant, if true: Reports claim #olympic kayaker capsized due to hitting submerged sofa in water https://t.co/e9VNYdgRpj #Rio2016
....On the current topic, I think Labour MPs have been selected under the Blairite rules not just for ideological centrism but for feeble compliance. They will be annoyed by Corbyn's likely victory, but quietly serve out their time. Defecting currently looks worse for their careers than the risk, but not the certainty, of deselection. The problem in the second-last paragraph for the Lib Dems is that it is not clear they see their destiny as a carapace housing the Blairites they used to struggle against.
2018 is crunch time for the non-Corvyn supporting Labour MPs. The boundary proposals are due to be published in 5 weeks time (13th Sept). We then have in 2017 consultations and somewhen in 2018 get the boundaries tabled to parliament. At that point Lab MPs opposed to Corbyn face near certain deselection. They either accept retirement or jump ship into the LDs or a new grouping. A group of 100 going 2 ways, iLAB or LibDem.
The reduction of seats (like Article 50 invokation and TSE's AV thread) is always in a future that never arrives. It is not something that the public get concerned about, but agitates a lot of MPs including many Tories. I suspect that it will be kicked into the long grass once more. Why cause needless trouble and distraction amongst your lobby fodder when trying to pass contentious legislation on a wafer thin majority?
The process is so long that Mrs May has to change the terms this year (such as stick with 650). She really must get the boundaries updated to reduce the inbuilt advantage Labour have.
Does Labour have any meaningful advantage in terms of votes per seat anymore? I thought that the loss of the Scotland to the SNP had evened it out.
Inside the Games Quite brilliant, if true: Reports claim #olympic kayaker capsized due to hitting submerged sofa in water https://t.co/e9VNYdgRpj #Rio2016
They had an interview with the windsurfers the other day & it sounded like they spent more time trying to avoid the plastic bags & other crap than anything else.
Cricviz has the draw at 63%. I don't think that is anywhere near accurate.
All three (four, even!) results still very much possible, I'd probably favour Pakistan from here but the draw gets shorter all the time England are still batting.
Interestingly Betfair have the draw odds-on at 1.6, in line with Cricviz, with England at 3.4 and Pakistan at 10.5. I'm betting on the visitors at those odds.
Cricviz has the draw at 63%. I don't think that is anywhere near accurate.
All three (four, even!) results still very much possible, I'd probably favour Pakistan from here but the draw gets shorter all the time England are still batting.
Interestingly Betfair have the draw odds-on at 1.6, in line with Cricviz, with England at 3.4 and Pakistan at 10.5. I'm betting on the visitors at those odds.
Cricviz Pakistan win percentage at 10% is way too low.
Planes always 'Vanish' from radar about where this one was last seen, as there's a big black spot over the sea. It did declare an emergency and was returning to Algiers though. Hopefully know more soon one way or the other.
....On the current topic, I think Labour MPs have been selected under the Blairite rules not just for ideological centrism but for feeble compliance. They will be annoyed by Corbyn's likely victory, but quietly serve out their time. Defecting currently looks worse for their careers than the risk, but not the certainty, of deselection. The problem in the second-last paragraph for the Lib Dems is that it is not clear they see their destiny as a carapace housing the Blairites they used to struggle against.
2018 is crunch time for the non-Corvyn supporting Labour MPs. The boundary proposals are due to be published in 5 weeks time (13th Sept). We then have in 2017 consultations and somewhen in 2018 get the boundaries tabled to parliament. At that point Lab MPs opposed to Corbyn face near certain deselection. They either accept retirement or jump ship into the LDs or a new grouping. A group of 100 going 2 ways, iLAB or LibDem.
The reduction of seats (like Article 50 invokation and TSE's AV thread) is always in a future that never arrives. It is not something that the public get concerned about, but agitates a lot of MPs including many Tories. I suspect that it will be kicked into the long grass once more. Why cause needless trouble and distraction amongst your lobby fodder when trying to pass contentious legislation on a wafer thin majority?
The process is so long that Mrs May has to change the terms this year (such as stick with 650). She really must get the boundaries updated to reduce the inbuilt advantage Labour have.
Does Labour have any meaningful advantage in terms of votes per seat anymore? I thought that the loss of the Scotland to the SNP had evened it out.
9,347,304 votes, 232 seats = 40,000 votes/seat
11,334,576 votes, 330 seats = 34,000 votes/seat
So nationwide the advantage is with the Tories.
I suspect on those figures it is close in England.
Cricviz has the draw at 63%. I don't think that is anywhere near accurate.
All three (four, even!) results still very much possible, I'd probably favour Pakistan from here but the draw gets shorter all the time England are still batting.
Interestingly Betfair have the draw odds-on at 1.6, in line with Cricviz, with England at 3.4 and Pakistan at 10.5. I'm betting on the visitors at those odds.
Cricviz Pakistan win percentage at 10% is way too low.
Agree completely. That 10% will go up with every wicket. I'd say it should be about 35% now, with England 25% and the draw 40%
Cricviz has the draw at 63%. I don't think that is anywhere near accurate.
All three (four, even!) results still very much possible, I'd probably favour Pakistan from here but the draw gets shorter all the time England are still batting.
Interestingly Betfair have the draw odds-on at 1.6, in line with Cricviz, with England at 3.4 and Pakistan at 10.5. I'm betting on the visitors at those odds.
Cricviz Pakistan win percentage at 10% is way too low.
That 10% will go up with every wicket. I'd say it should be about 35% now, with England 25% and the draw 40%
That is my issue with their model. Wicket(S) should always be factored in, but I have seen their model understate this...the first test being a good example , where 2 quick wickets of England cause a massive swing.
Cricviz has the draw at 63%. I don't think that is anywhere near accurate.
All three (four, even!) results still very much possible, I'd probably favour Pakistan from here but the draw gets shorter all the time England are still batting.
Interestingly Betfair have the draw odds-on at 1.6, in line with Cricviz, with England at 3.4 and Pakistan at 10.5. I'm betting on the visitors at those odds.
Cricviz Pakistan win percentage at 10% is way too low.
Good afternoon all. I guess it's me but watching the Rio Olympics is leaving me cold. Indeed it's getting bloody boring. Any decent sport would walk away from the present Olympic Movement.
Championship football season started today and Community Shield tommorow, so real sport coming.
The bookies still havent caught up with Leicester being champions. In PP handicap betting Leicester plus 20 points is 16/1 (and they do ew too). Not bad for the team that were Champions by a clear 10 points. West Ham and Everton are +22 at 16/1 too.
I would suggest that Ahmed Musa at 50/1 with an ew to the top 6 places is value too. Watch his two goals against Barca on Wed for a glimpse of him.
On cue....wicket...causes a 15% increase in Pakistan win % on cricviz. 10% -> 25% given one wicket which can occur every ball is too big a swing in the probabilities.
Good afternoon all. I guess it's me but watching the Rio Olympics is leaving me cold. Indeed it's getting bloody boring. Any decent sport would walk away from the present Olympic Movement.
Championship football season started today and Community Shield tommorow, so real sport coming.
The bookies still havent caught up with Leicester being champions. In PP handicap betting Leicester plus 20 points is 16/1 (and they do ew too). Not bad for the team that were Champions by a clear 10 points. West Ham and Everton are +22 at 16/1 too.
I would suggest that Ahmed Musa at 50/1 with an ew to the top 6 places is value too. Watch his two goals against Barca on Wed for a glimpse of him.
The opening prices reflected last year a bit more, but then everyone saw how ordinary Leicester looked in pre-season and assumed lightning won't strike twice.
#BREAKING: 2 Belgian police officers wounded in #machete attack, assailant shouting ‘Allahu Akbar’ https://t.co/QyRMSFQs4f #Belgium
Man with mental health condition known locally as Fred?
Clearly a spontaneous event. No evidence of radicalisation.
Hacks everywhere will be checking the Amazon/Good Reads recommendations right now.
I suspect the real meaning of that formulation used by the police in the Russell Square stabbing is:
- Evidence of radicalisation = on our list - No evidence of radicalisation = not on our list
Not reassuring either way.
Indeed - given that a simple Google search of the Russell Sq murderer's name threw up his recent reading material... and he's the only one called that resident in the UK... HeatSt really threw the spotlight on this - well done to them.
I wish the media would report accurately what Allah Akbar actually means. It doesn't mean god is great...it means god is the greatest / god is greater ie nothing is greater than god himself.
He was probably a Hawaiian Star Wars enthusiast who passed a calamari restaurant and was shouting "Aloha Akbar!".
Actually, what he shouted was Al Harken is at the bar, which means in the full Arabic vernacular; "Come with me for a drink, which is against our holy law, but f**k it."
Poor wee angelic mark duggan...no justice... Hillsborough is ain't.
Do you have a linky to the uncropped pix?
It isn't that interesting...his supporters claim the media fitted him up because they cropped a photo of him holding a heart...but of course they don't like to tell you that actually they are doing him a favour as they could have picked from a whole load of gang ones.
If you google image search you will see what I mean.
I wish the media would report accurately what Allah Akbar actually means. It doesn't mean god is great...it means god is the greatest / god is greater ie nothing is greater than god himself.
Subtle but important difference.
Very true, and pretty much the same form of words appears in the prayers of all major religions.
I wish the media would report accurately what Allah Akbar actually means. It doesn't mean god is great...it means god is the greatest / god is greater ie nothing is greater than god himself.
Subtle but important difference.
Very true, and pretty much the same form of words appears in the prayers of all major religions.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
Mr. Freggles, question of emphasis. Not only that, mentally ill lone attacks are a different kettle of monkeys to a spate of psychopaths who are killing in the name of their god.
It would be a bit like focusing on Catholicism rather than Republicanism when looking at the IRA. Yes, there's a big overlap. But the key aspect is the political belief, not the religion.
There's also the motive for reporting things in a certain way. Given cover-ups and misreporting over Cologne, Rotherham, the Munich murderer and, perhaps, the Russell Square lunatic it's indicative that the authorities seem willing to put political correctness ahead of honesty, at least in some cases.
Edited extra bit: finickity, but I was errant to use the term 'psychopaths'. They're highly intelligent and have a survival instinct, so they're unlikely to kill themselves or kill in a way which makes their capture/death probable.
Somebody should poll how the LibDems would do if they had Clegg back. I know he didn't go out on a high note, but between the clown-shoes Brexit negotiations and the Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party there might be a market not just for centrism, but also for competence and experience.
To a party outsider, that seems to be the real barrier to LD progress. Farron is far less convincing as a leader than Clegg, and I can't think of any serious talent emerging.
They're pretty 'hollowed out' north of the border, though I know little about their operation in England - do they have the candidates to make real progress, or are they just hoping for Labour hopelessness sending centrist voters their way?
(also, bravo for 'Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party')
How did they gain those fptp seats in the Scottish Parliament? Surprising.
Their leader in Scotland, Willie Rennie, seems a fairly affable bloke and had a reasonably high profile campaign.
And as a straight white male has a unique selling point as party leader in Scotland.
I wish the media would report accurately what Allah Akbar actually means. It doesn't mean god is great...it means god is the greatest / god is greater ie nothing is greater than god himself.
Subtle but important difference.
Very true, and pretty much the same form of words appears in the prayers of all major religions.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Sad state of affairs...with good government / major social change it could be one of the world best cites . Makes places like Vancouver's scenery look very ordinary.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Sad state of affairs...with good government / major social change it could be one of the world best cites . Makes places like Vancouver's scenery look very ordinary.
It is said of Brazil that it has tremendous potential - and always will have.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Sad state of affairs...with good government / major social change it could be one of the world best cites . Makes places like Vancouver's scenery look very ordinary.
It is said of Brazil that it has tremendous potential - and always will have.
Columbia is another where that is true. Has everything except steady secure society.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Sad state of affairs...with good government / major social change it could be one of the world best cites . Makes places like Vancouver's scenery look very ordinary.
It is said of Brazil that it has tremendous potential - and always will have.
City of God is one of the most memorable and depressing films I've seen.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Given that Brazil is a country with very little economic mobility, the only way for a brazilian poor person to get money would be from illegal activities.
In fact I don't know of a brazilian who has made his fortune by strictly legal means, not surprising then that their entire Legislature is under investigation for a variety of crimes including murder.
If Brazil was not occupied by brazilians it would have been a nice country.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Given that Brazil is a country with very little economic mobility, the only way for a brazilian poor person to get money would be from illegal activities.
In fact I don't know of a brazilian who has made his fortune by strictly legal means, not surprising then that their entire Legislature is under investigation for a variety of crimes including murder.
If Brazil was not occupied by brazilians it would have been a nice country.
There's no such thing as an honest penny, whether in Brazil or anywhere else.
Somebody should poll how the LibDems would do if they had Clegg back. I know he didn't go out on a high note, but between the clown-shoes Brexit negotiations and the Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party there might be a market not just for centrism, but also for competence and experience.
To a party outsider, that seems to be the real barrier to LD progress. Farron is far less convincing as a leader than Clegg, and I can't think of any serious talent emerging.
They're pretty 'hollowed out' north of the border, though I know little about their operation in England - do they have the candidates to make real progress, or are they just hoping for Labour hopelessness sending centrist voters their way?
(also, bravo for 'Winter of Discontent Nostalgia Party')
How did they gain those fptp seats in the Scottish Parliament? Surprising.
Their leader in Scotland, Willie Rennie, seems a fairly affable bloke and had a reasonably high profile campaign.
And as a straight white male has a unique selling point as party leader in Scotland.
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Sad state of affairs...with good government / major social change it could be one of the world best cites . Makes places like Vancouver's scenery look very ordinary.
It is said of Brazil that it has tremendous potential - and always will have.
Columbia is another where that is true. Has everything except steady secure society.
The society built by spanish and portuguese colonials is to blame.
The reasons why all of latin america is held back is because they inherited the feudalist social and economic structure of 18th century Iberia.
They are a living fossil of pre-enlightenment society.
I wish the media would report accurately what Allah Akbar actually means. It doesn't mean god is great...it means god is the greatest / god is greater ie nothing is greater than god himself.
Subtle but important difference.
It's also Flemish for "Our care in the community programme is clearly broken...."
Mr. Speedy, there was an interesting series by Niall Ferguson on economic history about the difference between North and South America which made the same point.
For the moment I can't see the LDs rising that much in the polls unless Brexit also leads to the UK leaving the Single Market too in which large numbers of moderate Tories and Labour voters who voted Remain may well move to the yellows'
But if we had left the single market what would a protest vote for the Lib Dems achieve? Are they seriously going to propose re-joining the EU with Shengen, the Euro & no rebate, even the 20% or so EU fanatics would find that a hard sell.
They would focus first on rejoining the single market and then build up from there, if we do leave the single market and we enter a recession as a result that platform would have many voters ready to support it
I wish the media would report accurately what Allah Akbar actually means. It doesn't mean god is great...it means god is the greatest / god is greater ie nothing is greater than god himself.
Subtle but important difference.
It's also Flemish for "Our care in the community programme is clearly broken...."
These universal phrases are so prone to misinterpretation.
If Corbyn wins I don't think Labour MPs will defect but wait until an election defeat. If after an election defeat he is re-elected leader or another hard left candidate like McDonnell wins the leadership then there is a real prospect of moderate Labour MPs forming a new party with the LDs.
For the moment I can't see the LDs rising that much in the polls unless Brexit also leads to the UK leaving the Single Market too in which large numbers of moderate Tories and Labour voters who voted Remain may well move to the yellows
They may not have a choice. The boundary review, re-selections and de-selections will loom. Besides, while waiting for defeat is an option if you represent St Helens, it's more of a risk if you hold a seat that's currently marginal, or might be after the review.
It is far from certain that the new boundaries will be approved anyway. A good few Tories are likely to rebel - indeed a few did so in the last Parliament.
No chance of that this time, it'll be a full-blown three line whip for the Tories - with anyone personally affected offered a seat on the red benches if not enough retire in 2020.
Another related dilemma will be what to do with the redundant MEPs, 19 Tories I believe.
It was a thre line whip last time! I think there will be several Tory rebels from Wales alone.
It wasn't put to a vote last time, as the LDs flounced on their promise to support it when the AV referendum failed to deliver the 'right' result.
I would have thought that the Government whips will be working very hard to get this through, as the rebalancing is likely to favour them as a party at the next election, although it way well cost a couple of seats in Wales.
Expect a load of old duffers (Ken Clarke etc) to announce their retirement, and expect a few more to be suitably honoured with Knighthoods or Lordships for their service either before or after the election. I'm not personally a huge fan of this sort of patronage, but we have to take the world as it is and the whips will use all the levers they have available to get the boundary revisions through.
I assure you it was put to a vote and comfortably defeated!
If Corbyn wins I don't think Labour MPs will defect but wait until an election defeat. If after an election defeat he is re-elected leader or another hard left candidate like McDonnell wins the leadership then there is a real prospect of moderate Labour MPs forming a new party with the LDs.
For the moment I can't see the LDs rising that much in the polls unless Brexit also leads to the UK leaving the Single Market too in which large numbers of moderate Tories and Labour voters who voted Remain may well move to the yellows
If Corbyn wins next month there must be a good chance that he will be challenged again next year - particularly if election results are not good and polls fail to improve. By 2017 we are in to midterm and it becomes much more reasonable to expect the Opposition to be doing well. If that fails to happen , the membership might become much more receptive to a change of leader .
Yes, if he wins he will remain on probation amongst MPs but unless Labour has an absolutely abysmal set of election results, eg starts losing by-elections to UKIP, comes third behind UKIP in the 2017 county council elections and remain under 30% in the polls and over 10% behind the Tories it is difficult to see another challenge anytime soon
I would expect another challenge next year - though without a No Confidence Vote by the PLP next time.Little risk of losing to UKIP which is in disarray itself. anyway. Next year we will be in midterm with the economy perhaps looking sick, if Labour fails to progress under those circumstances many members currently sympathetic to Corbyn might take a different view. I suspect that at some point the penny will drop !
The problem is many members of Labour put ideology before electability. If May keeps us in the single market after Brexit with controlled free movement then UKIP may start to rise in the polls under Diane James of whoever their leader turns out to be (and if not a Farage/Woolfe led party may do so again)
Good afternoon all. I guess it's me but watching the Rio Olympics is leaving me cold. Indeed it's getting bloody boring. Any decent sport would walk away from the present Olympic Movement.
Championship football season started today and Community Shield tommorow, so real sport coming.
The bookies still havent caught up with Leicester being champions. In PP handicap betting Leicester plus 20 points is 16/1 (and they do ew too). Not bad for the team that were Champions by a clear 10 points. West Ham and Everton are +22 at 16/1 too.
I would suggest that Ahmed Musa at 50/1 with an ew to the top 6 places is value too. Watch his two goals against Barca on Wed for a glimpse of him.
The opening prices reflected last year a bit more, but then everyone saw how ordinary Leicester looked in pre-season and assumed lightning won't strike twice.
I am not expecting them to win this year, but a 20 point handicap plus ew (top 4 places)at 4/1 looks value. Bear in mind our pre season was Celtic, PSG and Barca!
I know said this before but Rio really is a spectacular city. Won't be going mind you, between zika & gang violence & general very high level of crime.
When I went out there some years ago, our head of security warned me that our internal auditors had been attacked by a gang of twelve years olds as they were walking from their hotel to a restaurant.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
I know of ex pats Brits who have married Brazilians and have a very nice life in Brazil, their UK savings go much further there, the weather is good and the scenery spectacular and there are fantastic beaches too. Probably best to live in a gated community though if you can because of the crime
Any Labour MPs deselected might be well advised to resign their seats and force a by election at the time. They would probably be well placed to hold on - Taverne style - and defeat the official Labour candidate selected to replace them.That might well be sufficient to secure their re-election in 2020.
Yes, there will be a few well liked MPs with good local profiles who should be able to see off a by-election. That route is preferable than standing independently at the GE where party labels influence the vote more.
I've always said though that any mass defection, whether it be to SDP2, LDs, Co-Op or whatever, needs to happen *before* the deselections start, otherwise it just looks like sour grapes from the incumbent MPs.
They would still have to fight the by election as Independent Labour or whatever, but if re-elected - as I would expect them to be - they would be well placed to win again in 2020. Moreover, if the boundary changes do go through deselection will not arise until 2019 - so that any consequential by elections will still be well remembered in May 2020.
MPs "personal votes" are rarely more than a few thousand. Those that resign then stand again are Turkeys voting for Christmas.
I refer you to the by elections at Lincoln - Clacton - Rochester & Strood. Also Labour Independents holding Blyth and Merthyr Tydfil.
If Corbyn wins I don't think Labour MPs will defect but wait until an election defeat. If after an election defeat he is re-elected leader or another hard left candidate like McDonnell wins the leadership then there is a real prospect of moderate Labour MPs forming a new party with the LDs.
For the moment I can't see the LDs rising that much in the polls unless Brexit also leads to the UK leaving the Single Market too in which large numbers of moderate Tories and Labour voters who voted Remain may well move to the yellows
They may not have a choice. The boundary review, re-selections and de-selections will loom. Besides, while waiting for defeat is an option if you represent St Helens, it's more of a risk if you hold a seat that's currently marginal, or might be after the review.
It is far from certain that the new boundaries will be approved anyway. A good few Tories are likely to rebel - indeed a few did so in the last Parliament.
No chance of that this time, it'll be a full-blown three line whip for the Tories - with anyone personally affected offered a seat on the red benches if not enough retire in 2020.
Another related dilemma will be what to do with the redundant MEPs, 19 Tories I believe.
It was a thre line whip last time! I think there will be several Tory rebels from Wales alone.
It wasn't put to a vote last time, as the LDs flounced on their promise to support it when the AV referendum failed to deliver the 'right' result.
I would have thought that the Government whips will be working very hard to get this through, as the rebalancing is likely to favour them as a party at the next election, although it way well cost a couple of seats in Wales.
Expect a load of old duffers (Ken Clarke etc) to announce their retirement, and expect a few more to be suitably honoured with Knighthoods or Lordships for their service either before or after the election. I'm not personally a huge fan of this sort of patronage, but we have to take the world as it is and the whips will use all the levers they have available to get the boundary revisions through.
I assure you it was put to a vote and comfortably defeated!
Only four Tories voted against it (or actually, for the amendment): David Davis, Philip Davies, Richard Shepherd and John Baron.
Mr. Speedy, there was an interesting series by Niall Ferguson on economic history about the difference between North and South America which made the same point.
It's one of the reasons to be skeptical of immigration.
The problems that cause immigrants to leave to new lands simply immigrate with them too, and can persist even for centuries afterwards in their new homeland, proving in many cases that's the culture of immigrants that's at fault.
Immigrating to new places will not improve things, it's how they learn to do things.
There is a need for cultural assimilation and long term educational improvement.
Any Labour MPs deselected might be well advised to resign their seats and force a by election at the time. They would probably be well placed to hold on - Taverne style - and defeat the official Labour candidate selected to replace them.That might well be sufficient to secure their re-election in 2020.
Yes, there will be a few well liked MPs with good local profiles who should be able to see off a by-election. That route is preferable than standing independently at the GE where party labels influence the vote more.
I've always said though that any mass defection, whether it be to SDP2, LDs, Co-Op or whatever, needs to happen *before* the deselections start, otherwise it just looks like sour grapes from the incumbent MPs.
They would still have to fight the by election as Independent Labour or whatever, but if re-elected - as I would expect them to be - they would be well placed to win again in 2020. Moreover, if the boundary changes do go through deselection will not arise until 2019 - so that any consequential by elections will still be well remembered in May 2020.
MPs "personal votes" are rarely more than a few thousand. Those that resign then stand again are Turkeys voting for Christmas.
I refer you to the by elections at Lincoln - Clacton - Rochester & Strood. Also Labour Independents holding Blyth and Merthyr Tydfil.
For Clacton and Rochester & Strood they weren't standing as Independents, but for other parties, which is quite different.
Any Labour MPs deselected might be well advised to resign their seats and force a by election at the time. They would probably be well placed to hold on - Taverne style - and defeat the official Labour candidate selected to replace them.That might well be sufficient to secure their re-election in 2020.
Yes, there will be a few well liked MPs with good local profiles who should be able to see off a by-election. That route is preferable than standing independently at the GE where party labels influence the vote more.
I've always said though that any mass defection, whether it be to SDP2, LDs, Co-Op or whatever, needs to happen *before* the deselections start, otherwise it just looks like sour grapes from the incumbent MPs.
They would still have to fight the by election as Independent Labour or whatever, but if re-elected - as I would expect them to be - they would be well placed to win again in 2020. Moreover, if the boundary changes do go through deselection will not arise until 2019 - so that any consequential by elections will still be well remembered in May 2020.
MPs "personal votes" are rarely more than a few thousand. Those that resign then stand again are Turkeys voting for Christmas.
I refer you to the by elections at Lincoln - Clacton - Rochester & Strood. Also Labour Independents holding Blyth and Merthyr Tydfil.
At the GE the kipper majority dropped significantly and we know what happened in Rochester. It is possible to win the bye-election, but the way people vote in a GE is different.
If Corbyn wins I don't think Labour MPs will defect but wait until an election defeat. If after an election defeat he is re-elected leader or another hard left candidate like McDonnell wins the leadership then there is a real prospect of moderate Labour MPs forming a new party with the LDs.
For the moment I can't see the LDs rising that much in the polls unless Brexit also leads to the UK leaving the Single Market too in which large numbers of moderate Tories and Labour voters who voted Remain may well move to the yellows
They may not have a choice. The boundary review, re-selections and de-selections will loom. Besides, while waiting for defeat is an option if you represent St Helens, it's more of a risk if you hold a seat that's currently marginal, or might be after the review.
It is far from certain that the new boundaries will be approved anyway. A good few Tories are likely to rebel - indeed a few did so in the last Parliament.
No chance of that this time, it'll be a full-blown three line whip for the Tories - with anyone personally affected offered a seat on the red benches if not enough retire in 2020.
Another related dilemma will be what to do with the redundant MEPs, 19 Tories I believe.
It was a thre line whip last time! I think there will be several Tory rebels from Wales alone.
It wasn't put to a vote last time, as the LDs flounced on their promise to support it when the AV referendum failed to deliver the 'right' result.
I would have thought that the Government whips will be working very hard to get this through, as the rebalancing is likely to favour them as a party at the next election, although it way well cost a couple of seats in Wales.
Expect a load of old duffers (Ken Clarke etc) to announce their retirement, and expect a few more to be suitably honoured with Knighthoods or Lordships for their service either before or after the election. I'm not personally a huge fan of this sort of patronage, but we have to take the world as it is and the whips will use all the levers they have available to get the boundary revisions through.
I assure you it was put to a vote and comfortably defeated!
Only four Tories voted against it (or actually, for the amendment): David Davis, Philip Davies, Richard Shepherd and John Baron.
Yes - but a few others abstained. Moreover it was widely expected that the proposals would fall due to LibDem opposition. It has been suggested that had that not been so there would have been more Tory rebels.
Comments
Link to discussion on pilots' forum: http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/582632-air-algerie-flight-declares-emergency-radar-signal-reportedly-lost.html
#BREAKING: 2 Belgian police officers wounded in #machete attack, assailant shouting ‘Allahu Akbar’ https://t.co/QyRMSFQs4f #Belgium
AIUI there's one Commons vote and that's it, if the vote falls then we keep the old boundaries and 650 MPs again for the 2020 election.
Quite brilliant, if true: Reports claim #olympic kayaker capsized due to hitting submerged sofa in water https://t.co/e9VNYdgRpj #Rio2016
Interestingly Betfair have the draw odds-on at 1.6, in line with Cricviz, with England at 3.4 and Pakistan at 10.5. I'm betting on the visitors at those odds.
Cricviz Pakistan win percentage at 10% is way too low.
11,334,576 votes, 330 seats = 34,000 votes/seat
So nationwide the advantage is with the Tories.
I suspect on those figures it is close in England.
The bookies still havent caught up with Leicester being champions. In PP handicap betting Leicester plus 20 points is 16/1 (and they do ew too). Not bad for the team that were Champions by a clear 10 points. West Ham and Everton are +22 at 16/1 too.
I would suggest that Ahmed Musa at 50/1 with an ew to the top 6 places is value too. Watch his two goals against Barca on Wed for a glimpse of him.
He was probably a Hawaiian Star Wars enthusiast who passed a calamari restaurant and was shouting "Aloha Akbar!".
- Evidence of radicalisation = on our list
- No evidence of radicalisation = not on our list
Not reassuring either way.
Subtle but important difference.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-36996466
Poor wee angelic mark duggan...no justice... Hillsborough is ain't.
If you google image search you will see what I mean.
It would be a bit like focusing on Catholicism rather than Republicanism when looking at the IRA. Yes, there's a big overlap. But the key aspect is the political belief, not the religion.
There's also the motive for reporting things in a certain way. Given cover-ups and misreporting over Cologne, Rotherham, the Munich murderer and, perhaps, the Russell Square lunatic it's indicative that the authorities seem willing to put political correctness ahead of honesty, at least in some cases.
Edited extra bit: finickity, but I was errant to use the term 'psychopaths'. They're highly intelligent and have a survival instinct, so they're unlikely to kill themselves or kill in a way which makes their capture/death probable.
The local office staff were always concerned that I only travelled in taxis driven by people that they knew and trusted.
Spectacular scenery though, if you can get away from the office. I stayed in a company flat just off Ipanema the first visit and a hotel overlooking Copacabana the second visit. Tough job.
Most common job by US state, 2014. https://t.co/6QQZqZnSWZ #maps https://t.co/JTtVyrcRt7
In fact I don't know of a brazilian who has made his fortune by strictly legal means, not surprising then that their entire Legislature is under investigation for a variety of crimes including murder.
If Brazil was not occupied by brazilians it would have been a nice country.
The reasons why all of latin america is held back is because they inherited the feudalist social and economic structure of 18th century Iberia.
They are a living fossil of pre-enlightenment society.
These universal phrases are so prone to misinterpretation.
Reports in last 30mins of controlled explosion at #Cycling and live bullets flying through #equestrian media centre https://t.co/0jz0ormip6
The problems that cause immigrants to leave to new lands simply immigrate with them too, and can persist even for centuries afterwards in their new homeland, proving in many cases that's the culture of immigrants that's at fault.
Immigrating to new places will not improve things, it's how they learn to do things.
There is a need for cultural assimilation and long term educational improvement.
http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/170529/bariloche-nazi-haven
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2117093/Secret-files-reveal-9-000-Nazi-war-criminals-fled-South-America-WWII.html