politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton appears to be doing much better in polls co

foxinsoxuk said:

nunu said:

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

Do u know if Rodcrosby made a prediction on who would win Trump or Clinton ?

Rod was mostly tweeting episodes of Trumps speeches with Wagnerian music, in a US version of The Triumph of the Will. I do not think that he made a formal prediction, but he seemed to think it possible. I am more inclined to believe JackWs demographic analysis.

I also note that Hillary did particularly well in the Primaries in the Southern states that have been Republican for years, apart from under that other Clinton.

The Black and Hispanic voters here are not going to vote Trump and the rednecks and hillbillies are not too keen on philandering Yankees. I suspect that the way that Hillary stands by her man plays well to this audience. Hillary will do well here and take some states.

Are u in the south, I always thought Hillary was unpopular with conservative Americans even though she beat Bernie easily in those states that could because he is seen as a socialist.

Could this poll be true, I see both of them have the same unfavorable ratings

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-in-georgia/

@Sunil_Prasannan


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/children/11723308/First-cousin-marriages-in-Pakistani-communities-leading-to-appalling-disabilities-among-children.html


Staggering that this practice is allowed.

RobD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@BDStanley: Oh dear. https://t.co/sh6kNA4j5D

Probably started by a sore loser remainer.

It's *obviously* a joke. Come on guys, get with it.

I don't think anyone thought it was serious?

Some people on Twitter didn't...

nunu said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nunu said:

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

Do u know if Rodcrosby made a prediction on who would win Trump or Clinton ?

Rod was mostly tweeting episodes of Trumps speeches with Wagnerian music, in a US version of The Triumph of the Will. I do not think that he made a formal prediction, but he seemed to think it possible. I am more inclined to believe JackWs demographic analysis.

I also note that Hillary did particularly well in the Primaries in the Southern states that have been Republican for years, apart from under that other Clinton.

The Black and Hispanic voters here are not going to vote Trump and the rednecks and hillbillies are not too keen on philandering Yankees. I suspect that the way that Hillary stands by her man plays well to this audience. Hillary will do well here and take some states.

Are u in the south, I always thought Hillary was unpopular with conservative Americans even though she beat Bernie easily in those states that could because he is seen as a socialist.

Could this poll be true, I see both of them have the same unfavorable ratings

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-in-georgia/

I lived in Georgia for 5 years in the Seventies, but have not been there recently.

Hillary is not as popular in the South as Bill was, but these states are not in the bag for Trump. Cruz would have nailed on the old Confederacy. Trump is a New York Yankee, and not religious. Even the white men in the South are not his demographic.

===BETTING POST===

The results of the UN Security Council straw poll on next DG are in.

Although no candidate gets unanimous support (permanent members get a veto), the most support (and the least opposition) goes to Antonio Guterres, and second is Vuk Jeremic. Attempts to unite seem to have gone backwards. Guterres has the explicit backing of France.

Both favourites are men, 3.60 on the next DG being a man (with PaddyPower) is value.

foxinsoxuk said:

I lived in Georgia for 5 years in the Seventies, but have not been there recently.

Hillary is not as popular in the South as Bill was, but these states are not in the bag for Trump. Cruz would have nailed on the old Confederacy. Trump is a New York Yankee, and not religious. Even the white men in the South are not his demographic.

African americans voting for Hillary in the primaries doesn't equate to Trump being seen as a New York Yankee.

Trump's biggest (and only so far) demographic are male rednecks.

foxinsoxuk said:

nunu said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nunu said:

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

Do u know if Rodcrosby made a prediction on who would win Trump or Clinton ?

Rod was mostly tweeting episodes of Trumps speeches with Wagnerian music, in a US version of The Triumph of the Will. I do not think that he made a formal prediction, but he seemed to think it possible. I am more inclined to believe JackWs demographic analysis.

I also note that Hillary did particularly well in the Primaries in the Southern states that have been Republican for years, apart from under that other Clinton.

The Black and Hispanic voters here are not going to vote Trump and the rednecks and hillbillies are not too keen on philandering Yankees. I suspect that the way that Hillary stands by her man plays well to this audience. Hillary will do well here and take some states.

Are u in the south, I always thought Hillary was unpopular with conservative Americans even though she beat Bernie easily in those states that could because he is seen as a socialist.

Could this poll be true, I see both of them have the same unfavorable ratings

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-in-georgia/

I lived in Georgia for 5 years in the Seventies, but have not been there recently.

Hillary is not as popular in the South as Bill was, but these states are not in the bag for Trump. Cruz would have nailed on the old Confederacy. Trump is a New York Yankee, and not religious. Even the white men in the South are not his demographic.

Can I ask which state u live in at the moment?

nunu said:

Speedy said:

Hey this is new, Trump is planning to do TV ads:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/640160?unlock=POGH92SV7TMTY79I

"The Trump cam­paign’s me­dia buy­er, Stra­tegic Me­dia Ser­vices, re­ques­ted TV ad rates in 17 states Thursday, ac­cord­ing to two sources with know­ledge of the move. The states on the list are: Ari­zona, Col­or­ado, Flor­ida, Geor­gia, In­di­ana, Iowa, Maine, Min­nesota, Michigan, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Nevada, North Car­o­lina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vir­gin­ia, and Wis­con­sin."

And Trump seems to have hired an internal pollster too.
It's the first time that Trump has a semblance of a campaign going.

Now only if they could house train him in into avoiding gaffes and traps.

Why is he buying ads in safe red states? Interesting.

Since he has now an internal pollster, the above list is obviously the ones his pollster thinks they are in danger and the ones he thinks they have a chance.

So Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Missouri stick out as places Trump's own pollster thinks they might lose.

nunu said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I lived in Georgia for 5 years in the Seventies, but have not been there recently.

Hillary is not as popular in the South as Bill was, but these states are not in the bag for Trump. Cruz would have nailed on the old Confederacy. Trump is a New York Yankee, and not religious. Even the white men in the South are not his demographic.

Can I ask which state u live in at the moment?

Leicestershire

Opening ceremony from Rio just started on BBC1

I wonder which way this person voted in the referendum?


-----

Ofsted head refers to Isle of Wight as 'poor, white ghetto'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/ofsted-isle-of-wight-chairman-david-hoare-inbred-poor-white-ghetto-comment-a7173381.html

HYUFD said:

Opening ceremony from Rio just started on BBC1

Has anyone got killed yet ?
(I have very low expectations from those olympics)

Goodnight.

runnymede said:

I wonder which way this person voted in the referendum?


-----

Ofsted head refers to Isle of Wight as 'poor, white ghetto'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/ofsted-isle-of-wight-chairman-david-hoare-inbred-poor-white-ghetto-comment-a7173381.html

An Ofsted employee. Need I say more.

Hmmm Trump is calling Hillary unhinged.

Kettle = Black.

runnymede said:

I wonder which way this person voted in the referendum?


-----

Ofsted head refers to Isle of Wight as 'poor, white ghetto'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/ofsted-isle-of-wight-chairman-david-hoare-inbred-poor-white-ghetto-comment-a7173381.html

Quite a few Caulkheads and Overners agree with him going by the responses here:

http://onthewight.com/2016/08/05/ofsted-chairman-says-isle-of-wight-inbred-poor-white-ghetto/

MyBurningEars said:

FPT

david_herdson said:

EPG said:

david_herdson said:

Only just seen Alistair's article. He's right. Those who caused Brexit should pay. How about the sneering, overbearing, self-defining metropolitan elite, whose contempt for much of the country and its citizens prompted the rebellion against the proclaimed masters?

You think LEAVE voters are irresponsible children who just react to stimulus and have no responsibility for their actions? It's a view.

Not at all. But if you patronise people for long enough, denigrate them as xenophobes, racists, stupid and the rest, don't be surprised if they don't take kindly to it. Remain ran a dreadful campaign packed full of establishment scaremongering with nothing to inspire on the others side. It's true that the EU is hardly an ideal institution to generate inspiration but it is possible to campaign above the level of banana directive and it wasn't done. Consequently, the voters decided that they'd had enough and went for the one positive message in the game.

Lovely little ding-dong here!

Again I point to the TUC "Why Britain Voted Leave" polling.

Observe slide 12: "Accusations of racism hurt the Remain campaign more than the Leave campaign".

Were people concerned that "a leave vote would put me on the same side as racists?" 17% of all voters were very concerned, and 32% were either very or somewhat concerned. Among the referendum-swinging group of "soft" leavers (those who voted leave but had considered voting Remain), 15% were very concerned and 27% either very or somewhat concerned.

Were people concerned that "the Remain campaign dismiss legitimate concerns about immigration?" Among all-voters, 30% were very concerned and 53% very or somewhat concerned about this. Among the vital soft leavers, this rose to 36% very concerned and 73% (!!) very or somewhat concerned.

The stats are backing you on this one, David.

I don't think that's what the dispute was about.

The dispute was about whether LEAVE voters are responsible for their own actions, or if they are just responding to stimuli dictated by their betters. I think the latter is a crass, politico-type over-interpretation. Voters vote for all sorts of reasons but the vote is freely chosen; there is no clever political strategist orchestrating matters in the ballot box. More to the point, people here keep saying the vote was about "control" not immigration, so why do people say it is also about a third reason that didn't show up anywhere in the polls, i.e. the evil "metropolitans"!

"Take control" in the actually-existing Britain implies handing over more power to the hated London rootless cosmopolitans...

nunu said:

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

Do u know if Rodcrosby made a prediction on who would win Trump or Clinton ?

If memory serves, he declined to predict both EU2016 (insufficient data) and POTUS2016 (the modellers disagree). For 2015 Rod used a model by two academics, Lebo and Norpoth. Norpoth has a good track record and he's done a similar model for 2016, and it's strong Trump. Problem is, other modellers with a good track record (Moody's Analytics, 13 Keys) are strong Clinton.

Sonia Guajajara, head of The Association of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil, tells the Guardian she is unimpressed by the interpretation of history earlier in the show:
“The images are beautiful but they hide the reality,” she said. “That the Amazon is threatened with extinction from logging and fires and the growing demand from soy and beef. So much from demand for what people eat in other countries. We are not folkloric we are real and we are the only ones who can protect the forest.”

Is there a way to shut off the commentary on the Opening ceremony whils

viewcode said:

nunu said:

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

Do u know if Rodcrosby made a prediction on who would win Trump or Clinton ?

If memory serves, he declined to predict both EU2016 (insufficient data) and POTUS2016 (the modellers disagree). For 2015 Rod used a model by two academics, Lebo and Norpoth. Norpoth has a good track record and he's done a similar model for 2016, and it's strong Trump. Problem is, other modellers with a good track record (Moody's Analytics, 13 Keys) are strong Clinton.

God that is quite worrying.

Me_ said:

nunu said:

Sonia Guajajara, head of The Association of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil, tells the Guardian she is unimpressed by the interpretation of history earlier in the show:
“The images are beautiful but they hide the reality,” she said. “That the Amazon is threatened with extinction from logging and fires and the growing demand from soy and beef. So much from demand for what people eat in other countries. We are not folkloric we are real and we are the only ones who can protect the forest.”

Did someone expect us to show our problems in an Olympic opening? You got be kidding me.

Danny Boyle showed Britain's dark past as he sees it during ours.

And now Fun with Flags!

Boos for the Argies!

Greg Sargent's blog in the Washington Post: "If Trump quits, GOP will have very tough time replacing him":

"Balloting deadlines in key states might make replacing his name with another candidate’s name on the ballot into a massive logistical nightmare."

"For instance, in order for Republicans to replace Trump’s name in Ohio — which is all but certainly a must-win state for the GOP — Trump might have to quit and be replaced by the RNC within the next five days. That’s right — five days."

"Might" is then explained: Ohio law doesn't say a candidate can be replaced after that time, but it doesn't say they can't either.

The gist: the longer it takes to happen, the more litigation, in more states.

And it's not even clear that the RNC can sack him.

Still, Kasich is at 410 at Betfair, from 700 a few hours ago.

Y0kel said:

POTUS

I mentioned the other night that the GOP's effort to sink their own nominee were cranking into life.

Trump's own links with the Kremlin, not just Russia in general, should come out at some point. There is substance there and it will hurt.

One wonders why they didn't come out with it in the primaries.......

GB just entered the stadium led by Andy Murray

nunu said:

Y0kel said:

POTUS

I mentioned the other night that the GOP's effort to sink their own nominee were cranking into life.

Trump's own links with the Kremlin, not just Russia in general, should come out at some point. There is substance there and it will hurt.

Pretty sure wikileaks is saving a spectacular on Trump for October.

Assange prefers Trump to Hillary so it maybe her he is saving stuff on

Dromedary said:

Greg Sargent's blog in the Washington Post: "If Trump quits, GOP will have very tough time replacing him":

"Balloting deadlines in key states might make replacing his name with another candidate’s name on the ballot into a massive logistical nightmare."

"For instance, in order for Republicans to replace Trump’s name in Ohio — which is all but certainly a must-win state for the GOP — Trump might have to quit and be replaced by the RNC within the next five days. That’s right — five days."

"Might" is then explained: Ohio law doesn't say a candidate can be replaced after that time, but it doesn't say they can't either.

The gist: the longer it takes to happen, the more litigation, in more states.

And it's not even clear that the RNC can sack him.

Still, Kasich is at 410 at Betfair, from 700 a few hours ago.

Why Kasich ?

The VP nominee Pence would be the most logical replacement.

Even Cruz has a better claim on the nomination than Kasich. (Cruz was 2nd & Kasich was 3rd.)

HYUFD said:

GB just entered the stadium led by Andy Murray

Just think, he could have been leading the Scottish team.

IanB2 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

runnymede said:

I wonder which way this person voted in the referendum?


-----

Ofsted head refers to Isle of Wight as 'poor, white ghetto'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/ofsted-isle-of-wight-chairman-david-hoare-inbred-poor-white-ghetto-comment-a7173381.html

Quite a few Caulkheads and Overners agree with him going by the responses here:

http://onthewight.com/2016/08/05/ofsted-chairman-says-isle-of-wight-inbred-poor-white-ghetto/

The author could do with some education herself judging from this in the article:

"The Isle of Wight is one of England’s most underperforming areas for education, and was last year named as one of 16 local authorities where less than 60 per cent of children have below average attainment levels."

LOL!

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Some rowing and cycling today, at 12.30pm and 1.30pm respectively.

I guess the Olympics goes some way to alleviating the boredom from the lack of F1 in August!
Cricket could be good too, if our batsmen can stay in for the day. That's a very big IF.

Mr. W, morris dancers can't to be the lean, muscular, Adonis-like superheroes we are by lounging about, you know.

Mr. Sandpit, aye, although I also need to get some work done. Four races in five weekends didn't necessarily enhance productivity.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, morris dancers can't to be the lean, muscular, Adonis-like superheroes we are by lounging about, you know.

And for those of us who speak English without a wiffle stick up one's derriere ? ....

vik said:

Dromedary said:

Greg Sargent's blog in the Washington Post: "If Trump quits, GOP will have very tough time replacing him":

"Balloting deadlines in key states might make replacing his name with another candidate’s name on the ballot into a massive logistical nightmare."

"For instance, in order for Republicans to replace Trump’s name in Ohio — which is all but certainly a must-win state for the GOP — Trump might have to quit and be replaced by the RNC within the next five days. That’s right — five days."

"Might" is then explained: Ohio law doesn't say a candidate can be replaced after that time, but it doesn't say they can't either.

The gist: the longer it takes to happen, the more litigation, in more states.

And it's not even clear that the RNC can sack him.

Still, Kasich is at 410 at Betfair, from 700 a few hours ago.

Why Kasich ?

The VP nominee Pence would be the most logical replacement.

Even Cruz has a better claim on the nomination than Kasich. (Cruz was 2nd & Kasich was 3rd.)

And that's another reason it's highly unlikely to happen. It's not just the difficulty and damage in replacing Trump, it's coming to a consensus on who to replace him with.

Freggles said:

Ahem...

Before the vote I was shot down for saying:

"Any opportunities to produce new Nissan models will be given to non-UK plants until a trade deal is ironed out - too much uncertainty. Cue redundancies in Sunderland.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested."

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-in-sunderland-plant-until-brexit-deal-clear-but-boss-reasonably-optimistic-1-8052373

Mr Gosn 'has previous' - from twelve years ago:

Nissan may quit UK over euro
Nissan's president chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, has repeated warnings that its Sunderland plant could lose production of one of its most important cars if Britain remains outside the euro.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2004/jan/07/motoring.theeuro

Sandpit said:

david_herdson said:

vik said:

Dromedary said:

Greg Sargent's blog in the Washington Post: "If Trump quits, GOP will have very tough time replacing him":

"Balloting deadlines in key states might make replacing his name with another candidate’s name on the ballot into a massive logistical nightmare."

"For instance, in order for Republicans to replace Trump’s name in Ohio — which is all but certainly a must-win state for the GOP — Trump might have to quit and be replaced by the RNC within the next five days. That’s right — five days."

"Might" is then explained: Ohio law doesn't say a candidate can be replaced after that time, but it doesn't say they can't either.

The gist: the longer it takes to happen, the more litigation, in more states.

And it's not even clear that the RNC can sack him.

Still, Kasich is at 410 at Betfair, from 700 a few hours ago.

Why Kasich ?

The VP nominee Pence would be the most logical replacement.

Even Cruz has a better claim on the nomination than Kasich. (Cruz was 2nd & Kasich was 3rd.)

And that's another reason it's highly unlikely to happen. It's not just the difficulty and damage in replacing Trump, it's coming to a consensus on who to replace him with.

That's a very good point.

If he quits there'll be no option but to try.
"Told of Mr. Trump’s noncommittal comment, Stuart Stevens, a senior adviser to Mitt Romney in 2012 who has become one of Mr. Trump’s most vocal critics, said that Mr. Trump was “a con man who is shocked his con hasn’t been called” and that he was looking for an emergency exit.

“He has no sense of how to govern,” Mr. Stevens said. “He can’t even put together a campaign.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/08/us/politics/donald-trump-president.html?_r=0

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Song, 'can't put together a campaign' must make the rest of the Republican candidates bloody awful, then.

Sounds fair.

More from that article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/08/us/politics/donald-trump-president.html?_r=0

"On the off chance he actually is planning to back out, what would happen?

Alexander Keyssar, a historian at Harvard who is working on a book about the Electoral College, said the process of succession would depend on “the precise moment at which he said, ‘Nah, never mind.’”

The party representatives who make up the Electoral College would suddenly have real power rather than a rubber stamp. If Mr. Trump bowed out after winning on Nov. 8 but before the electors met in each state to cast their ballots on Dec. 19, then the electors could have the opportunity to vote for another candidate, Professor Keyssar said.

A majority of the 538 electors would be Republicans, but they might not agree on the best alternative candidate. If no one won a majority of the electors, the contest between the top three vote-getters — one of whom would presumably be Mrs. Clinton — would go to the House of Representatives, where each state would be given one vote, while the Senate would select the vice president. House Republicans hold 33 states to the Democrats’ 14, with three evenly split. It is unclear whether the vote would take place before or after newly elected representatives were seated."

.

I'd vote Trump but I would never admit it.

As for Alastair Meeke's thread hahaha

Scott_P said:

@BDStanley: Oh dear. https://t.co/sh6kNA4j5D

Epic and how apt.

JennyFreeman said:

p.s. Trump will win

Which part of his policy platform attracts you?

Freggles said:

Ahem...

Before the vote I was shot down for saying:

"Any opportunities to produce new Nissan models will be given to non-UK plants until a trade deal is ironed out - too much uncertainty. Cue redundancies in Sunderland.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested."

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-in-sunderland-plant-until-brexit-deal-clear-but-boss-reasonably-optimistic-1-8052373

This is why we need an outline agreement asap. The longer uncertainty lasts, the more damage there will be.

If there were significant redundancies at the Sunderland plant, things could get quite ugly up there. It is also worth remembering that the automobile industry - because components go from country to country - would be the business most negatively impacted by a WTO outcome.

CarlottaVance said:

Freggles said:

Ahem...

Before the vote I was shot down for saying:

"Any opportunities to produce new Nissan models will be given to non-UK plants until a trade deal is ironed out - too much uncertainty. Cue redundancies in Sunderland.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested."

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-in-sunderland-plant-until-brexit-deal-clear-but-boss-reasonably-optimistic-1-8052373

Mr Gosn 'has previous' - from twelve years ago:

Nissan may quit UK over euro
Nissan's president chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, has repeated warnings that its Sunderland plant could lose production of one of its most important cars if Britain remains outside the euro.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2004/jan/07/motoring.theeuro

Leaving behind a £2bn investment, and choosing to prioritise investment in other Nissan plants are two totally different things.

rcs1000 said:

Freggles said:

Ahem...

Before the vote I was shot down for saying:

"Any opportunities to produce new Nissan models will be given to non-UK plants until a trade deal is ironed out - too much uncertainty. Cue redundancies in Sunderland.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested."

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-in-sunderland-plant-until-brexit-deal-clear-but-boss-reasonably-optimistic-1-8052373

This is why we need an outline agreement asap. The longer uncertainty lasts, the more damage there will be.

If there were significant redundancies at the Sunderland plant, things could get quite ugly up there. It is also worth remembering that the automobile industry - because components go from country to country - would be the business most negatively impacted by a WTO outcome.

Yes.

But then everybody's plants get stopped so I cant see that happening.

malcolmg said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

GB just entered the stadium led by Andy Murray

Just think, he could have been leading the Scottish team.

Its a crying shame

Morning Malc.

Seems to be a turnip-free zone on here just lately - Excluding Anti-Franks thread header last night.

Have all the rich PB'ers gone on holiday?

JennyFreeman said:

I'd vote Trump but I would never admit it.

You just did.

The cheapest rental areas in the country as a proportion of pay:

Copeland 62% L
Derby 57% L
Fylde 57% L
Barrow 61% L
N Lincolnshire 66% L
Selby 59% L
Darlington 56% L
Hartlepool 70% L
Amber Valley 60% L
West Lindsey 62% L

and the most expensive:

Kensington 69% R
Westminster 69% R
City 75% R
Camden 75% R
Islington 75% R
Hackney 79% R
Tower Hamlets 68% R
Hammersmith 70% R
Lambeth 79% R
Southwark 73% R

Also:

‘ ◾The most expensive places to rent a room in the South East are large parts of Surrey, Oxfordshire and Tunbridge Wells in Kent

◾Renting a one bedroom property in the South East would be impossible within recommended limits everywhere except Medway, Hastings, Rother, Gosport, Dover, Shepway, Thanet and the Isle of Wight ‘

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36794222

I’m tempted to say that it shows how stupid Remainers are but perhaps it illustrates that different people have different priorities in life.

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Freggles said:

Ahem...

Before the vote I was shot down for saying:

"Any opportunities to produce new Nissan models will be given to non-UK plants until a trade deal is ironed out - too much uncertainty. Cue redundancies in Sunderland.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested."

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/nissan-halts-investment-in-sunderland-plant-until-brexit-deal-clear-but-boss-reasonably-optimistic-1-8052373

Mr Gosn 'has previous' - from twelve years ago:

Nissan may quit UK over euro
Nissan's president chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, has repeated warnings that its Sunderland plant could lose production of one of its most important cars if Britain remains outside the euro.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2004/jan/07/motoring.theeuro

Leaving behind a £2bn investment, and choosing to prioritise investment in other Nissan plants are two totally different things.

Being, shall we say, 'unreliable' over the future of Nissan investment in the UK may be the same things......

rcs1000 said:

Thanks for the Discontented article.

The other articles on the site are also very good.