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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton appears to be doing much better in polls conducted with live interviews
Above is the national WH2016 polling for the past ten days. Clinton’s ahead in all but notice the big difference between those surveys which were conducted by live interviewers over the phone and those which used the internet or automated phone calls to get responses.
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http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/08/05/sabatos-crystal-ball-538-election-forecast-disaster-for-trump/
"there is no option on Trump's website to cancel monthly contributions or remove your credit card information: Once you've set up a donation, you may only switch from one valid credit card to another."
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/08/05/donald-trump-really-ripping-small-donors/
Jeremy Diamond ✔ @JDiamond1
Help, I set up a recurring contribution to Trump's campaign & want to cancel it: (cc: @realDonaldTrump)
2:48 AM - 4 Aug 2016 · Florida, USA, United States
Again I point to the TUC "Why Britain Voted Leave" polling.
Observe slide 12: "Accusations of racism hurt the Remain campaign more than the Leave campaign".
Were people concerned that "a leave vote would put me on the same side as racists?" 17% of all voters were very concerned, and 32% were either very or somewhat concerned. Among the referendum-swinging group of "soft" leavers (those who voted leave but had considered voting Remain), 15% were very concerned and 27% either very or somewhat concerned.
Were people concerned that "the Remain campaign dismiss legitimate concerns about immigration?" Among all-voters, 30% were very concerned and 53% very or somewhat concerned about this. Among the vital soft leavers, this rose to 36% very concerned and 73% (!!) very or somewhat concerned.
The stats are backing you on this one, David.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 36
http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf
http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/ringo-starr-reveals-he-voted-for-brexit-i-didn-t-see-the-european-union-going-anywhere-a3312711.html
“The US is my town. America is my town.”
A vote of confidence in Brexit Britain if ever I've heard it...
I would be delighted if I'm wrong about shy Trump supporters and he gets wiped out. Equally, the world has had quite enough of machine politicians, so I would like to see Clinton wiped out too. At the current odds I see no value in betting on either and that's unlikely to change.
However, given how disliked they both are by myself and by the American electorate, the 250/1 punt on Gary Johnson was a head and heart decision.
But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:
http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html
"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"
It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3725155/ISIS-s-French-Director-External-Operations-alleged-mastermind-Paris-attacks-thought-defected-Turkey.html
The 36-year-old said: 'They said he had mental health issues but that was not the boy I knew.
'The news of his mental illness is completely new, we never heard that. Honestly, I think his mental health problems are a scapegoat.'
'I think peer pressure, hanging around with gangs. He wasn't working, he was hanging around with Somalian boys and I think they had possible links to serious ISIS people - not directly, but they see all this stuff and are inspired by it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3725136/Russell-Square-knifeman-stabbed-American-tourist-death-devastated-husband-tried-kill-THREE-times-year.html
Somebody didn't get the memo.
Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.
I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.
It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...
It all stinks
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-georgia-becoming-a-battleground-state/
They have named him now btw. Their internet machine was obviously broken for the past couple of days.
Look he's getting 1-2% of african americans and less than 10% of those under the age of 30 in the opinion polls, that's about what UKIP gets in Britain.
But Trump is running in a 2 way presidential race, not a multiparty parliamentary race, with UKIP numbers he's dead.
"Has anyone else tried Amazon Fresh? It's incredible - they deliver food and booze, groceries and staples - to your door, within a specific HOUR, on the same day as you order.
Their wine selection alone is better than any online supermarket. Prices are super-competitive.
They're gonna slaughter the competition, starting with Ocado."
Well, the old ways are good too. Ten quid will get you from the Bedford market as much fruit, vegetables & eggs as you can carry, in five or six bags.
However your wider point (that people are less willing to admit to a socially unacceptable opinion in a poll and this is a big problem with polls) is pretty uncontroversial at this point.
Back in the real world it pissed a whole bunch of key voters off.
You have a gift for precis which I obviously lack...
In a couple of polls Hillary is approaching that level (although that was Marist who has faulty methodology and I'm not using in my polling averages), so Georgia is definitely going for Hillary.
But there is obviously a great chance that Trump continues to self-destruct all the way till election day, at that point Trump would probably win only W.Virginia and maybe Alabama.
Trump might be hounded by republicans and humiliated through history if he goes on, it's not as if Hillary is a popular or competent person, it's the perception that Trump is insane that's killing him in the polls.
It would all come down to how many small c conservatives would then vote Farage with Gritted Teeth and how many left wingers and momentum types would vote Cherie with gritted teeth and how many would sit on their hands or vote for independent also rans.
That said, Trump only has a chance because the Democrats have put someone unelectable against him.
Equivalent of Labour making Cherie Blair the party leader.
Why should the considered opinion of any single person (in this case one who is rather intelligent and sane) spur one to irrational behaviour? I expect it has to do with our sad class structure. Anyone who is confident of his own worth can listen and judge.
But I agree, Trump will see it through to November.
Hillary has learned over multiple elections to avoid the public and the press as much as possible, in order to avoid gaffes and control things by remote without exposing herself. Risky in a primary, as Jeb! found, but a sound GE strategy.
Trump is going right into the Lions Den without any control and they are eating him alive.
Trump has talked so much out of control in public we now question his sanity.
Since we are not sure Trump is a sane person there is a very high chance the debates are going to be a disaster.
Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to defend himself from Hillary and the Moderators without making a fool of himself ?
Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to articulate his policies in a popular way ?
Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to attack Hillary effectively ?
Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to not attack anyone but Hillary ?
I don't necessarily condone this sort of politicking but the trick for the radical right politician is to lure your opponent into denouncing you as a liar or a racist or something else that would be unequivocally damaging if people they thought it were the case. Leave/Farage played this game very well in the EU vote. The £350m a week claim was a classic and the criticisms of the Remain side simply made them look as though they thought giving away £180m a week was absolutely fine. The poster was a riskier move, and perhaps it did lose leave votes (we'll never know, of course), but Farage knows the game. Whether or not him and his team went for an image that would goad the know-it alls into wetting themselves over the similarities to a Nazi poster I don't know. But once again, the criticisms of the Remain side could have given the impression that they didn't want to debate the substantive issue (the potential for refugees to get EU passports and therefore have a right to move to Britain). Instead, they did what comes naturally to them and branded Farage and the rest of the Leave side as racists.
With the soldier's parents, however, I can't see how this helps Trump. Sure, there will be some who will defend Trump through anything, but I don't think he's done himself any favours and has the impression of not being in control. Clinton's line about Trump being riled by a Tweet is very clever. Maybe Trump can pull it back, but I think it's unlikely that he can win.
Obviously there are a lot of differences in the US electoral make up (the big afro american vote for a start)
But the democrats putting up the dreaded Hillary Clinton against him means to my mind it is his to lose. The tricky thing for him now is he is representing a party not just himself as he was in the primaries so there are plenty on his own side with more "liberal" views he now has to take account of and who will try and undermine him like the wets undermined IDS at every opportunity if their egos are not stroked.
Trump: "I wonder if the Russians can find those 30,000 missing emails?"
The democrats turn it into: "Trump is in league with the Russians"
That wasn't difficult to anticipate.
Or this trick by the democrats:
"Lets have sympathetic people attack Trump on TV, Trump may take the bait and attack them"
And sure enough Trump took the bait.
But why did Trump go on the offensive against people who endorsed him ?
That's a mystery, perhaps he is insane.
The democrats know how to provoke Trump into destroying himself.
They had protesters with pocket constitutions in their hand at Trump rallies, conservatives love the constitution, so when Trump kicked them out it is seen as though Trump hates the constitution and conservatives.
Trump needs to watch some Star Trek about how to handle the Borg, he needs to change his tactics and weaponry.
Or he needs to learn martial arts, because the democrats use political martial arts against him.
In reality Hillary appears to be building a commanding lead and Trump imploding in chaos. A Hillary landslide is far more likely than a Trump win.
It's far too early to write Trump off because of a few campaign gaffes.
Trump was very good for a republican audience that distrusts the media and it's political leaders, and is hungry for red meat and an alpha male after 30 years of green salads and bland.
But a national audience is the reverse, the average republican voter is a male age 60 living in a small town or village, the average american voter is female age 40 living in small cities.
One is WWE, the other is The View:
http://abc.go.com/shows/the-view
Trump must win the audience of the above TV show.
I also note that Hillary did particularly well in the Primaries in the Southern states that have been Republican for years, apart from under that other Clinton.
The Black and Hispanic voters here are not going to vote Trump and the rednecks and hillbillies are not too keen on philandering Yankees. I suspect that the way that Hillary stands by her man plays well to this audience. Hillary will do well here and take some states.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/convention_bounces.php
It was only when Reagan convincingly won the first debate with great one liners like 'are you better off today than you were 4 years ago' that he took a clear poll lead. Indeed he moved from a 3 point deficit to a 3 point advantage after the debates. Trump, like Reagan, is also great at one liners and if he can portray himself as the strongman outsider America needs and tie Hillary to the establishment and more of the same anything is possible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8YxFc_1b_0
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110674/Presidential-Debates-Rarely-GameChangers.aspx
Robert in the Daily Express explaining why he thinks the Royal family killed Diana.