politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB-UKIP race is on: Which party will split first?

Scott_P said:

@PeterMannionMP: Paul Nuttall doesn't run; Suzanne Evans gets barred; Steven Woolfe can't get form in on time; Diane James has freak lawnmower accident #ukip

Freak lawnmower accident?

Philip_Thompson said:

Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

Obviously they are a Party ...

Now what name could they go for ...

I understand Faragist Little Englanders is available...

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

Obviously they are a Party ...

Now what name could they go for ...

When May agrees to continue free movement with controls to get some access to the single market that will be the time for an anti immigration party and the British Nationalists is as good a name as any

Wow you are beyond parody ...

https://twitter.com/TheOncoming/status/760799137407307778

Didn't Farage unresign last time because "the NEC begged him to"?

Could he unresign this time just to abolish the NEC?

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

Obviously they are a Party ...

Now what name could they go for ...

When May agrees to continue free movement with controls to get some access to the single market that will be the time for an anti immigration party and the British Nationalists is as good a name as any

Why not just add the word Socialist on the end. British national socialist party. Has a nice ring to it, plus if they are going to try and appeal to traditional Labour voters then saying they are socialist is a must.

Yes, covers all bases

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

Obviously they are a Party ...

Now what name could they go for ...

When May agrees to continue free movement with controls to get some access to the single market that will be the time for an anti immigration party and the British Nationalists is as good a name as any

Wow you are beyond parody ...

Well they do not need to repeat the name exactly but they are aiming for the same consumers

Ok. Can comment now. Have stopped laughing.

Almost.

The SNP do Opposition better than Labour.
The Conservatives do new leaders better than Labour.
And the UKIP do stupid better than Labour.

Labour really are in trouble.

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

Where is HYUFD today to tell us how this is good news for UKIP who will sweep to power in 2020 because of this ?

Did you miss is heroic performance the other night that Steven Woolfe hadn't filled in his nomination paper for Manchester Police Commissioner incorrectly?

Woolfe claims his conviction for drink driving his scooter was spent but regardless things have moved on

AIUI one cannot have a spent conviction when standing for PCC posts. Wasn’t there someone in the West Country (IIRC) who had to withdraw as a PCC candidate because he’d been convicted of something or other minor 30 years before?

Yes well as I said things have moved on, Woolfe is not going to be leading UKIP but most probably a Faragist successor

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

@PeterMannionMP: Paul Nuttall doesn't run; Suzanne Evans gets barred; Steven Woolfe can't get form in on time; Diane James has freak lawnmower accident #ukip

Freak lawnmower accident?

Lawns are all about border control mind. Get that wrong and I doubt you'll go far in UKIP.

Which will split first? UKIP. Labour won't split (a handful of MPs leaving will not be a split).

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

Where is HYUFD today to tell us how this is good news for UKIP who will sweep to power in 2020 because of this ?

Did you miss is heroic performance the other night that Steven Woolfe hadn't filled in his nomination paper for Manchester Police Commissioner incorrectly?

Woolfe claims his conviction for drink driving his scooter was spent but regardless things have moved on

No he didn't say it was spent, the form doesn't ask about spent or unspent convictions, but any convictions that might attract an inprisonable sentence

Woolfe said he believed at the time his conviction was spent even if that belief was wrong in terms of what the form required but as I said below he will not be a candidate for UKIP leader now anyway

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ToryJim said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

Not sure why they'd do that.

Entryism.

That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom

The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules

I know, but I'm worried about the next Tory leadership contest, which, if we're lucky wont happen until 2025 ish but our decent rules didn't stop IDS becoming leader

IDS won because of what he wasn't. He wasn't a headbanger europhile like Ken. You know that. Now that we're heading out of the EU I find it hard to believe the Leadbangers will get a look in.

For now at least it looks like they may as well declare Theresa May PM for life anyway

Give it 6 months and I doubt it will seem that is still the case.

Oh well, on the bright side the UKIP Parliamentary Party can't split.......might defect en masse tho.....

Haven't we had enough excitement for one Summer - after BREXIT and the LEADSOMITES the spotlight had shifted to that cavalcade of wit & beauty that is the PLP - now this - how is one supposed to keep up?

SimonStClare said:

Haiku

Woolfe howling
Farage barking
mad

Nine syllables seem to have split from your Haiku...

felix said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

Obviously they are a Party ...

Now what name could they go for ...

When May agrees to continue free movement with controls to get some access to the single market that will be the time for an anti immigration party and the British Nationalists is as good a name as any

ROFL - you truly lack self-awareness.

26% want no free movement and no single market access according to Comres, that provides a base for Farage and Woolfe. Anyway back to work

kle4 said:

felix said:

John_M said:

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_X said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

"Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.

A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.

Lib Dems beware, lest Theresa May's Sauronic eye fall upon thee, to your enduring and utter woe.

A LD split into factions would be...an achievement!

Even the remaining LDs are not a unified force - several LD members on here voted for Leave, for instance.

To be fair, the Liberal Party........ those who didn’t join the LD’s ....... were in favour of Leave. Part of the historic Free Trade policy.

MaxPB said:

On topic. Can someone explain why UKIP are so desperate to distance themselves from Farage/Woolf? Farage made them what they are today and on paper Woolf seems like the ideal candidate foe UKIP. I'm not a big fan of Nigel but no one can deny the effect he has had on British politics, without him we would not have voted to leave the EU. A candidate who can keep that going and dump some of the negatives would probably be quite successful.

To be honest it's best not to bother scratching your head too much about the motivations of some of the characters in the UKIP organisation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

Where is HYUFD today to tell us how this is good news for UKIP who will sweep to power in 2020 because of this ?

Did you miss is heroic performance the other night that Steven Woolfe hadn't filled in his nomination paper for Manchester Police Commissioner incorrectly?

Woolfe claims his conviction for drink driving his scooter was spent but regardless things have moved on

AIUI one cannot have a spent conviction when standing for PCC posts. Wasn’t there someone in the West Country (IIRC) who had to withdraw as a PCC candidate because he’d been convicted of something or other minor 30 years before?

Yup in 2012

The Labour Party candidate due to stand in the Avon and Somerset police commissioner election has stepped down due to a previous criminal conviction.

Bob Ashford, a former Frome councillor, said a crime he committed as a teenager bars him from standing for the post.

The Labour Party received clarification of the ruling from the Home Office and the Electoral Commission

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-19181071

Tsk. Such amateurs!

http://www.ibtimes.co.in/186-indian-members-parliament-have-criminal-cases-including-murder-rape-600584#Odl6ejED1vHt84gr.97

Going by the statistics, the general election of 2014 has seen the highest number of politicians with criminal records being elected to the Indian parliament. As per records, every third newly elected MP in the Indian parliament has a criminal record.

https://twitter.com/JWoodcockMP/status/760814857264455680

kle4 said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ToryJim said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

Not sure why they'd do that.

Entryism.

That's my biggest fear for the Tory party.

They've seen how they can change the Labour party, they might try and topple Theresa May and replace her with the ghastly Andrea Leadsom

The only mechanism to topple May lies with the MPs. Entryism is pretty difficult to pull off in the Conservative party, we have decent rules

Elitism in politics has its place, as a certain someone might say

What the Conservatives need is exitism just now, i.e. of Cameron's chums and the sad little rump of EU-worshippers.

felix said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

I expect Farage will start a new populist anti immigration party which Woolfe will lead and UKIP will be left with Carswell, Neil Hamilton and whichever nonentity they now elect to lead them and wither on the vine

Since the EU is no longer an issue they should just concentrate on being British ...

Sounds like you want them to be rather nationalist, they should put National in their name too ...

Obviously they are a Party ...

Now what name could they go for ...

When May agrees to continue free movement with controls to get some access to the single market that will be the time for an anti immigration party and the British Nationalists is as good a name as any

ROFL - you truly lack self-awareness.

How about the British Nationalist and Empire Loyalists (Channelling the spirit of Enoch Powell) Party ?

welshowl said:

Are we all watching the Life of Brian here? Not only do we have the Judean People's Front and the Popular Front of Judea going on in two significant parties, but many seem to see Jezza like he's some sort of Messiah who can do no wrong, come to change politics forever when it's clear to anyone this side of lucidity he's just a very naughty boy, (or the Black Knight claiming just another flesh wound - to be Pythonesque again).

The world of UK political parties has gone truly bonkers.

"Look, you've got it all wrong! You don't NEED to follow ME, You don't NEED to follow ANYBODY! You've got to think for yourselves! You're ALL individuals!"

TheScreamingEagles said:

Toys leaving the pram alert

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

If Ukip split and Labour split, that'd be 6 parties going for the Labour vote? What hope is there that at some point someone in one of those groups might notice that the whole Labour vote is less than the Tory vote?

welshowl said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

welshowl said:

Are we all watching the Life of Brian here? Not only do we have the Judean People's Front and the Popular Front of Judea going on in two significant parties, but many seem to see Jezza like he's some sort of Messiah who can do no wrong, come to change politics forever when it's clear to anyone this side of lucidity he's just a very naughty boy, (or the Black Knight claiming just another flesh wound - to be Pythonesque again).

The world of UK political parties has gone truly bonkers.

"Look, you've got it all wrong! You don't NEED to follow ME, You don't NEED to follow ANYBODY! You've got to think for yourselves! You're ALL individuals!"

I'm not.

Shhhh!

Dadge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Toys leaving the pram alert

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

If Ukip split and Labour split, that'd be 6 parties going for the Labour vote? What hope is there that at some point someone in one of those groups might notice that the whole Labour vote is less than the Tory vote?

"Only the true Messiah denies His divinity!"

kle4 said:

felix said:

John_M said:

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_X said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

"Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.

A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.

Lib Dems beware, lest Theresa May's Sauronic eye fall upon thee, to your enduring and utter woe.

A LD split into factions would be...an achievement!

Even the remaining LDs are not a unified force - several LD members on here voted for Leave, for instance.

I understand that several Conservative and several Labour members also voted in different ways in the referendum. By your definition no party is a unified force.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkSenior said:

Where is HYUFD today to tell us how this is good news for UKIP who will sweep to power in 2020 because of this ?

Did you miss is heroic performance the other night that Steven Woolfe hadn't filled in his nomination paper for Manchester Police Commissioner incorrectly?

Woolfe claims his conviction for drink driving his scooter was spent but regardless things have moved on

No he didn't say it was spent, the form doesn't ask about spent or unspent convictions, but any convictions that might attract an inprisonable sentence

Woolfe said he believed at the time his conviction was spent even if that belief was wrong in terms of what the form required but as I said below he will not be a candidate for UKIP leader now anyway

What seems odd is that he's not been ruled out on grounds of the PCC election issue or his membership - both of which might seem reasonable - but on his form being received late. Now it may be that it was submitted late and if so, that's fair enough but if it was somehow delayed by a slow server or leaves on the superhighway or whatever, then there may well be a case to be made that his exclusion is unfair. It would certainly have been a very helpfully-timed technical issue for those with an interest in blocking him.

Blue_rog said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyway, so much for Mike's hope (and mine) that we'd have a quiet August

I REALLY hope the excitement will continue through September and October as I'll be laid up recovering from foot surgery.

I think it's safe to assume you'll be royally entertained!!

LadyBucket said:

How ironic that after all the predictions that the conservatives would be murdering each other after the EU referendum, that they look to be the most united party. You couldn't make it up - lol!

I have absolutely no sympathy for Steven Woolfe, why on earth did he leave it so late to declare?

AFAIK there were technical problems when he tried earlier, then he was out the day before.

He explained it at some point.

felix said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is this the cue for rightwing kippers to (re)join the Conservative party?

Please god no - they'd try to bring Leadsom back

Farage might want to rejoin the tories,that would be fun.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blue_rog said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyway, so much for Mike's hope (and mine) that we'd have a quiet August

I REALLY hope the excitement will continue through September and October as I'll be laid up recovering from foot surgery.

September, October, and November are going to be so exciting, that's why we need the rest in August.

September = Labour leadership contest, and a potential Labour split if Jez wins

October = The business end of the US Presidential election campaign and Article 50 court case

November = New POTUS elected

December = Hammond's autumn statement and proper speculation on when Article 50 is going to be triggered in 2017

"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here??"

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/760819770040156161

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blue_rog said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyway, so much for Mike's hope (and mine) that we'd have a quiet August

I REALLY hope the excitement will continue through September and October as I'll be laid up recovering from foot surgery.

September, October, and November are going to be so exciting, that's why we need the rest in August.

September = Labour leadership contest, and a potential Labour split if Jez wins

October = The business end of the US Presidential election campaign and Article 50 court case

November = New POTUS elected

December = Hammond's autumn statement and proper speculation on when Article 50 is going to be triggered in 2017

That lot is nothing compared to the phone call I've just had.

Good news?

TheScreamingEagles said:

TSE @TSEofPB

Interesting from Arron Banks via @katyballs

No doubt if he won Labour would use 'Keep the Woolfe from the poor' at some point.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blue_rog said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyway, so much for Mike's hope (and mine) that we'd have a quiet August

I REALLY hope the excitement will continue through September and October as I'll be laid up recovering from foot surgery.

September, October, and November are going to be so exciting, that's why we need the rest in August.

September = Labour leadership contest, and a potential Labour split if Jez wins

October = The business end of the US Presidential election campaign and Article 50 court case

November = New POTUS elected

December = Hammond's autumn statement and proper speculation on when Article 50 is going to be triggered in 2017

That lot is nothing compared to the phone call I've just had.

Good news?

Vanilla !

PlatoSaid said:

SimonStClare said:

Haiku

Woolfe howling
Farage barking
mad

/pedant

Isn't a haiku 5/7/5 syllables?

Fractious victory
Forgotten while lurks outside
A Woolfe at the door

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blue_rog said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyway, so much for Mike's hope (and mine) that we'd have a quiet August

I REALLY hope the excitement will continue through September and October as I'll be laid up recovering from foot surgery.

September, October, and November are going to be so exciting, that's why we need the rest in August.

September = Labour leadership contest, and a potential Labour split if Jez wins

October = The business end of the US Presidential election campaign and Article 50 court case

November = New POTUS elected

December = Hammond's autumn statement and proper speculation on when Article 50 is going to be triggered in 2017

January = Trump's inaugural speech? (OK. probably not - but can you imagine?)

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Again reinforcing how right the Electoral Commission was to choose Vote Leave rather than the plaything of an oddball.

It's appropriate that Vote Leave's official Twitter account has been silent since June 23rd while still having a banner saying 'We send the EU £350m a week. Let's fund our NHS instead."

Believe in Britain!

Be LEAVE!

logical_song said:

kle4 said:

logical_song said:

kle4 said:

felix said:

John_M said:

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_X said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

"Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.

A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.

Lib Dems beware, lest Theresa May's Sauronic eye fall upon thee, to your enduring and utter woe.

A LD split into factions would be...an achievement!

Even the remaining LDs are not a unified force - several LD members on here voted for Leave, for instance.

I understand that several Conservative and several Labour members also voted in different ways in the referendum. By your definition no party is a unified force.

Er, yes, obviously. I was making the point that just because the LDs are small does not mean they cannot split, or that it would be difficult to split into its factions. Even small parties are coalitions of opinions, therefore potentially open to split.

Probably only UKIP and the LibDems have a totally united Parliamentary Party.

Even UKIP regularly gets Parliamentary rebellions.

ThreeQuidder said:

logical_song said:

kle4 said:

logical_song said:

kle4 said:

felix said:

John_M said:

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_X said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/760799585879154688

With UKIP there isn't the "OMG but the brand is so valuable" objection to starting a new party - rather the reverse.

"Brexit" would be a snappy enough name for a political party.

A split in UKIP would add to May's joys immensely.

Lib Dems beware, lest Theresa May's Sauronic eye fall upon thee, to your enduring and utter woe.

A LD split into factions would be...an achievement!

Even the remaining LDs are not a unified force - several LD members on here voted for Leave, for instance.

I understand that several Conservative and several Labour members also voted in different ways in the referendum. By your definition no party is a unified force.

Er, yes, obviously. I was making the point that just because the LDs are small does not mean they cannot split, or that it would be difficult to split into its factions. Even small parties are coalitions of opinions, therefore potentially open to split.

Probably only UKIP and the LibDems have a totally united Parliamentary Party.

And the SNP, who are forbidden to disagree with the Leader.

What about the DUP, PC, Greens and I'm sure a couple of other equivalents.

TheScreamingEagles said:

WHAT!

You can't name the cat Cromwell, that's an insult to Her Majesty.

Cabinet office 'set to appoint cat called Cromwell as Chief Mouser'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/03/cabinet-office-set-to-appoint-cat-called-cromwell-as-chief-mouse/

What's happened to Larry?

SimonStClare said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Again reinforcing how right the Electoral Commission was to choose Vote Leave rather than the plaything of an oddball.

It's appropriate that Vote Leave's official Twitter account has been silent since June 23rd while still having a banner saying 'We send the EU £350m a week. Let's fund our NHS instead."

Believe in Britain!

Be LEAVE!

time to put that one to bed methinks...

Article 50 hasn't been triggered...