politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s first PMQs: She’s going be a challenge for either Cor
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UKIP unchanged since the general election though however that would be the biggest Tory and Labour gap since the 1987 general election, so maybe May is the new Thatcher and whether Labour pick Corbyn or Smith it does not make a real difference, they are just choosing between Foot and Kinnock!John_M said:
May hurting UKIP more than Labour is the simple takeaway.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7557520256783073320 -
I was a Labour GE2015 voter, but they didn't ask METheScreamingEagles said:How 2015 Lab GE voters are splitting
76% still Labour voters
8% now voting Tory
9% now voting Lib Dem
5% now voting UKIP
3% now voting other0 -
How big a shift must that be in London and Scotland?! Subsample heaven indeed for some.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7557520256783073320 -
Me too.peter_from_putney said:Interesting that Mrs. May's folder of supposedly readily accessible information, which no PM ever seems to actually refer to, appeared to be a tiny fraction the thickness of the one used by her predecessor.
Might I correct her on one all too commonly mispronounced word ...... children are brought up not bought up. A horrid mistake she uttered twice within a few seconds ..... aargh!
Yes, she won today, but was far too deliberately Thatcherite for my liking.
And Tories only buy children for cooking.0 -
Well you know that rule that Polly Toynbee is always wrong.....
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/755741928487084032?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
How many Don't knows before that?TheScreamingEagles said:How 2015 Lab GE voters are splitting
76% still Labour voters
8% now voting Tory
9% now voting Lib Dem
5% now voting UKIP
3% now voting other0 -
Especially with Yougov, changes sound nonsense.Artist said:I don't remember UKIP being at 20% to be honest.
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Don't be silly. Do you think chimneys clean themselves?PlatoSaid said:
Me too.peter_from_putney said:Interesting that Mrs. May's folder of supposedly readily accessible information, which no PM ever seems to actually refer to, appeared to be a tiny fraction the thickness of the one used by her predecessor.
Might I correct her on one all too commonly mispronounced word ...... children are brought up not bought up. A horrid mistake she uttered twice within a few seconds ..... aargh!
Yes, she won today, but was far too deliberately Thatcherite for my liking.
And Tories only buy children for cooking.0 -
Not so sure about that for the LDs - it's been a high mark for them for awhile, but they have been as high as 9 in the past year. And Kipper support will be very ephemeral.SeanT said:
Bloody hellScott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+10)
LAB: 29% (-4)
UKIP: 12% (-8)
LDEM: 9% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-)
(via YouGov / 17-18/07)
Chgs. from April
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.0 -
Miss Plato, surely cooking and slavery?0
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Junior Masterchef?PlatoSaid said:
Me too.peter_from_putney said:Interesting that Mrs. May's folder of supposedly readily accessible information, which no PM ever seems to actually refer to, appeared to be a tiny fraction the thickness of the one used by her predecessor.
Might I correct her on one all too commonly mispronounced word ...... children are brought up not bought up. A horrid mistake she uttered twice within a few seconds ..... aargh!
Yes, she won today, but was far too deliberately Thatcherite for my liking.
And Tories only buy children for cooking.0 -
TMIGIPM0
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@Mike_Fabricant: The Conservative benches were all shell-shocked by the devastating, crisp, fine-tuned attack at #PMQs earlier. #KeepCorbynasLeader!0
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Yup. But if ALL the subsamples are pointing the same way, there's a trend.kle4 said:
How big a shift must that be in London and Scotland?! Subsample heaven indeed for some.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7557520256783073320 -
Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems' 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.0
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Yup.valleyboy said:Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
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While I don't believe that for a second, it might stop the "oh, but he's doing OK in the polls" nonsense.ToryJim said:
One swallow doesn't make a summer....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Theresa May is God is PM?Casino_Royale said:TMIGIPM
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By the time there is another GE it won't really matter, if he can manage to get to be leader in the meantime. Unless there is a GE prior to declaring article 50, which doesn't seem on the cards, it will be at the least well advanced before another GE, at which point Smith's wish to prevent it won't necessarily be an issue - he can make a play for the 48% now, say he would have prevented it if he had the opportunity, but like most people once we are out, he's probably not going to campaign on rejoining, which is a whole other kettle of fish.John_M said:
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
ttps://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
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@DPJHodges: Some people think 2017 election would be good way officially getting rid of Corbyn. But I'm not sure Labour could survive it.0
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No they were at 11% in a recent pollpeter_from_putney said:Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.
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That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
Changes from April?? Have they selected Labour's most favourable poll from the last 12 months for comparison, then? Surely that was not the last YouGov GE VI poll.kle4 said:
Not so sure about that for the LDs - it's been a high mark for them for awhile, but they have been as high as 9 in the past year. And Kipper support will be very ephemeral.SeanT said:
Bloody hellScott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+10)
LAB: 29% (-4)
UKIP: 12% (-8)
LDEM: 9% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-)
(via YouGov / 17-18/07)
Chgs. from April
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.0 -
I totally agree also - generally speaking, hectoring women are not vote winners.PlatoSaid said:
Yup.valleyboy said:Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
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We can but hopeParistonda said:
Perhaps the last century was just an anomaly and by 2021 it'll be Tories vs Liberals/Whigs once more!SeanT said:
Bloody hellScott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+10)
LAB: 29% (-4)
UKIP: 12% (-8)
LDEM: 9% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-)
(via YouGov / 17-18/07)
Chgs. from April
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.0 -
You can only close mines and steelworks once. I'm sure lazy people will peddle the Thatcher idea, but it really doesn't suit the times. We're three times as wealthy as we were in the late 70s.valleyboy said:Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
If May doesn't go after the boomers, I shall be incredibly disappointed.0 -
Just seen the Lab retention figure with don't knows: 58%
42% - that's nearly 4m 2015 voters - will not commit to Labour.
Corbyn loses Labour 4 million voters. The Lib Dem/UKIP offset is only about 600k.
Labour would poll 20-25% in an election if that were true.
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If it is maintained, yes possibly. Frankly I'm susprised the gap with Lab is not higher in the South, although apparently Corbyn is actually more popular among the county Lab members.FF43 said:
Yup. But if ALL the subsamples are pointing the same way, there's a trend.kle4 said:
How big a shift must that be in London and Scotland?! Subsample heaven indeed for some.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7557520256783073320 -
I signed up to the Saving Labour site and had done the psychological contortions needed to pay £3 to save fully functioning democracy in the UK but... It was the coup instigators who were told hiked the fee to £25 and retroactively disenfranchised new full members. Apart from reminding me of everything that's kept me out of the Labour Party all my life where is the strategy ? Why attempt to mobilise centrists to join AND make it bloody difficult at the same time ? I'll keep my £25 and wait for SDP2 if that's their attitude.0
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Sky - man in winter coat 'with wires hanging down from it' arrested in Brussels.0
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At the moment May is Merkel in personality, Thatcher in dominance and a combination of the two in policyvalleyboy said:Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
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When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That Scottish sub sample could give the Conservatives 15-20. Yeah I don't believe it either. Although I would expect them to pick up seats in Scotland at the moment but 2-3 max.david_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
Geekily loving the new, expanded, detail of YouGov's target weightings on pages 3 & 4:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7r7q7dltth/InternalResults_160720_VI.pdf0 -
The Tories came within a few hundred votes of getting a second seat in Scotland in 2015, which would have been hilarious.david_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
htts://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berwickshire,_Roxburgh_and_Selkirk_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Last Yougov VI poll was AprilPro_Rata said:
Changes from April?? Have they selected Labour's most favourable poll from the last 12 months for comparison, then? Surely that was not the last YouGov GE VI poll.kle4 said:
Not so sure about that for the LDs - it's been a high mark for them for awhile, but they have been as high as 9 in the past year. And Kipper support will be very ephemeral.SeanT said:
Bloody hellScott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+10)
LAB: 29% (-4)
UKIP: 12% (-8)
LDEM: 9% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-)
(via YouGov / 17-18/07)
Chgs. from April
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3fpd29osgc/YG trackers-Voting Intention-160428.pdf
And the change figures given are correct0 -
It would be quite incredible if UKIP VI didn't drop after the vote to Leave the EU, the resignation of Farage and the destruction of the Cameroons. Their goal has been achieved, I would think they have a lot less to be fired up aboutbrokenwheel said:
Especially with Yougov, changes sound nonsense.Artist said:I don't remember UKIP being at 20% to be honest.
It seems Yougovs previous polls were wildly out of kilter with other firms re Con share, have they changed something?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?0
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That WAS since the last Yougov in April.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Maybe Corbyn did well afterall.TheScreamingEagles said:Well you know that rule that Polly Toynbee is always wrong.....
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/755741928487084032?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Pensioners:
Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13
Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.0 -
One of them did pretty well in 1979, 1983 and 1987 though.peter_from_putney said:
I totally agree also - generally speaking, hectoring women are not vote winners.PlatoSaid said:
Yup.valleyboy said:Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
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I wondered that too - lots of the change numbers look strange.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
With a 30% headline Labour figure more or less matching GE2015, suggests Labour have also pulled in some support from elsewhere. Greens, non-voters, UKIP?Sunil_Prasannan said:
I was a Labour GE2015 voter, but they didn't ask METheScreamingEagles said:How 2015 Lab GE voters are splitting
76% still Labour voters
8% now voting Tory
9% now voting Lib Dem
5% now voting UKIP
3% now voting other
Polls, eh!0 -
If this is the first since the election why not post changes relative to the election, rather than the last pre-election poll?Pulpstar said:
That WAS since the last Yougov in April.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
yes but her message is different, an economy for everyone not the privliged few.valleyboy said:Just a thought. Whilst agreeing totally that May trampled all over JC, you should be careful in taking this Thatcher comparison too far. There are many many people out there who cringe at the thought of the Iron Lady and would never vote Tory simply because of her time as pm. A Thatcher mk2 may just galvanise the left against the Tories and not JC.
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That rather depends on the line now taken by Corbyn ..... will he (sensibly) declare that the people have now spoken and we must go with the majority decision?John_M said:
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7557520256783073320 -
24% is only 2% higher than what Ruth got not that you should compare two elections.kle4 said:
How big a shift must that be in London and Scotland?! Subsample heaven indeed for some.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7557520256783073320 -
Was only local elections then, doesn't compare to a GE VI pollPhilip_Thompson said:
If this is the first since the election why not post changes relative to the election, rather than the last pre-election poll?Pulpstar said:
That WAS since the last Yougov in April.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That would be logical since there is clear political space between the liberal and conservative view on social issues, and despite its more liberal membership (or at least the middle class bit of it) labour relies on wwc and Muslim votes, neither groups that are known for being particularly liberal, and hence is always going to be a poor champion for liberal social issues.Pulpstar said:
We can but hopeParistonda said:
Perhaps the last century was just an anomaly and by 2021 it'll be Tories vs Liberals/Whigs once more!SeanT said:
Bloody hellScott_P said:@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+10)
LAB: 29% (-4)
UKIP: 12% (-8)
LDEM: 9% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-)
(via YouGov / 17-18/07)
Chgs. from April
Kipppers flocking back to the Tories. Labour in freefall. Despairing lefty Remainians moving to the Lib Dems.
On the economy no-one seems to have a clue anyway.0 -
I think the Lib Dems have an opportunity, but we don't know if it will be realised after them being invisible for so long. Their case goes something like this:peter_from_putney said:Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.
A lot of people think the Coalition government worked much better than the one that followed. People who voted Remain will particularly think that because of the Brexit disaster (from their POV), but not just Remainers. We can generalise this goodwill to say Lib Dems bring a moderate and competent influence to politics across the board. So it's a just a step for people who might otherwise vote Conservative or Labour to decide we are worth voting for and to switch their votes to us.0 -
The last election only had 329 people involved, 100 % Conservative - not sure what comparing the Yougov to that will tell us...Philip_Thompson said:
If this is the first since the election why not post changes relative to the election, rather than the last pre-election poll?Pulpstar said:
That WAS since the last Yougov in April.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.runnymede said:
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.Casino_Royale said:
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.TheScreamingEagles said:Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.0 -
I've a lot of Kippers in my timeline and they're still red hot on immigration controls/ensuring Brexit is delivered. They're very suspicious sorts when it comes to Tories following through in deed as well as word.MontyHall said:
It would be quite incredible if UKIP VI didn't drop after the vote to Leave the EU, the resignation of Farage and the destruction of the Cameroons. Their goal has been achieved, I would think they have a lot less to be fired up aboutbrokenwheel said:
Especially with Yougov, changes sound nonsense.Artist said:I don't remember UKIP being at 20% to be honest.
Rudd's comment that there wouldn't be an immigration target now has got them going.0 -
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.
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That will do ;-)MaxPB said:
Theresa May is God is PM?Casino_Royale said:TMIGIPM
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The flagging of Betfair every time Leave drifted was handy, although it felt like an implicit troll rather than betting advice.MP_SE said:
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.runnymede said:
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.Casino_Royale said:
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.TheScreamingEagles said:Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.0 -
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
Sky - he hasn't been arrested, he's on his knees with hands on his head.0
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I think the polling industry would be well advised never to credit his predictions again.MP_SE said:
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.runnymede said:
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.Casino_Royale said:
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.TheScreamingEagles said:Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.0 -
If you factor in the SNP at say 4.5% and PC at 0.5% that poll is pretty close to the 2015 result, with Labour a shade down and the LibDems a shade up. But no big shifts really.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You miss my point, and that being made by others, that the comparison used to create the figures was itself awfully out of line with both results and other polling at the time. It appears to have been wilfully chosen to create a narrative.MontyHall said:
It would be quite incredible if UKIP VI didn't drop after the vote to Leave the EU, the resignation of Farage and the destruction of the Cameroons. Their goal has been achieved, I would think they have a lot less to be fired up aboutbrokenwheel said:
Especially with Yougov, changes sound nonsense.Artist said:I don't remember UKIP being at 20% to be honest.
It seems Yougovs previous polls were wildly out of kilter with other firms re Con share, have they changed something?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
How much is real drop and how much is Yougov's bad methodology?0 -
Stephen Kinnock looks remarkably like a young Vlad Putin.0
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Polly has to be right once in a blue moonnunu said:
Maybe Corbyn did well afterall.TheScreamingEagles said:Well you know that rule that Polly Toynbee is always wrong.....
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/755741928487084032?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
UKIP is obviously a party in transition at the moment, plenty of targets for the Woolfe.MontyHall said:
The flagging of Betfair every time Leave drifted was handy, although it felt like an implicit troll rather than betting advice.MP_SE said:
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.runnymede said:
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.Casino_Royale said:
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.TheScreamingEagles said:Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.0 -
What the polls seem to be saying is that Labour will lose heavily to the Tories in the marginals, while keeping most of the core vote seats. Terrible, terrible stuff. The one very small consolation is that UKIP have a hell of a lot of work to do before they are going to mount a serious challenge.0
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@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.0 -
"The majority have no right to do wrong!"peter_from_putney said:
That rather depends on the line now taken by Corbyn ..... will he (sensibly) declare that the people have now spoken and we must go with the majority decision?John_M said:
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
- Eamonn de Valera, in the wake of the June 1922 Irish Free State Election, when his Anti-Treaty wing of Sinn Fein lost to the Pro-Treaty faction and allies.0 -
The last one looked like an outlier. But, there's nothing surprising about this. People on the Right who were pissed off with David Cameron's fake renegotiation have switched back to the Tories.nunu said:
When were the tories at 30% with yougov?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Zero value.IanB2 said:OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?
With the Electoal College he will get no votes. The only effect may be to peel off some of the nuttier Republicans and put Hillary in the White House.0 -
And the Tories have been throwing money at them for six years :-)chestnut said:Pensioners:
Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13
Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.
They know their client vote.
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At least the Labour Party may now be able to settle its debts before it dies.0
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LOL, as much chance of them getting 6 as me being a Dutchmandavid_herdson said:
That Scotland figure should give the Tories several seats. I don't particularly believe it - big MoEs for unweighted subsamples - but John Major's Conservatives won 11 seats with 25.5% of the Scottish vote in 1992. The big SNP share makes that unrealistic now but 24% ought to deliver half a dozen.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/755752025678307332
Also, would be fascinating to see the breakdown for 'the north'. Take out Newcastle, S Yorks, Burnhamshire and so on (and Hagueshire on the other side), and I'd guess that it would look very healthy for the Blues across the W Yorks / Lancs marginals.0 -
If he'd actually accepted what his polling was saying, he'd have been okay. But, he very much wanted a big win for Remain, so made assumptions that weren't well-founded.Casino_Royale said:
I think the polling industry would be well advised never to credit his predictions again.MP_SE said:
I will never forget the squeals of delight every time Andrew Copper talked up the private polling for Remain.runnymede said:
Well the behaviour of several site regulars over the last couple of months has been fairly unedifying.Casino_Royale said:
Your personal nastiness to Andrea Leadsom has been one of the most unedifying features of this site over recent weeks. I read some of your comments whilst on holiday and I was, frankly, shocked.TheScreamingEagles said:Well done to all those Tory MPs and the black ops on Andrea Leadsom.
Leadsom would have been in tears at PMQs
Thankfully, Theresa May doesn't share your spite.
Still, as they managed to call the referendum completely wrongly despite their smug self-satisfaction we can be cheerful.
Thankfully the days of Dave's chumocracy are over.0 -
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.0 -
One of the main problems for the LibDems is that they lost so many of their seats in the West Country, where the demographics seem likely to shift ever more in the Tories' favour over the coming years, in terms of relative wealth and age profile.FF43 said:
I think the Lib Dems have an opportunity, but we don't know if it will be realised after them being invisible for so long. Their case goes something like this:peter_from_putney said:Two Taxi Tim Farron must be encouraged by the LibDems 9% level of support in this latest poll .... surely just about their highest score since last year's G.E.
A lot of people think the Coalition government worked much better than the one that followed. People who voted Remain will particularly think that because of the Brexit disaster (from their POV), but not just Remainers. We can generalise this goodwill to say Lib Dems bring a moderate and competent influence to politics across the board. So it's a just a step for people who might otherwise vote Conservative or Labour to decide we are worth voting for and to switch their votes to us.0 -
I see old people!chestnut said:Pensioners:
Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13
Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.0 -
He is a halfwit and called himself North British, he is no real Scotsman.JonnyJimmy said:
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
He is on the ballot in every state. I have backed him at any rate as I'd rather not be in a Johnson sized hole when he gets included in the presidential debates. There is a value, albeit slight.foxinsoxuk said:
Zero value.IanB2 said:OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?
With the Electoal College he will get no votes. The only effect may be to peel off some of the nuttier Republicans and put Hillary in the White House.0 -
The value, surely, is that if he did make the debates (and the republican lady thought his poll ratings were almost at the threshold) his odds would surely come in from 270/1 and therefore there is value in backing at 270. I thought there was value at 400 and my first bet is already in the green.foxinsoxuk said:
Zero value.IanB2 said:OT interesting to hear the head woman of a Republicans UK on R4 just now saying she will be backing Gary Johnson and thinks he might have a chance. I see his odds on Betfair are coming in rapidly (400 on Sunday now 270). If this trend gathers pace - particularly if he makes the debates, which I gather is a possibility - then this bet must still represent good value?
With the Electoal College he will get no votes. The only effect may be to peel off some of the nuttier Republicans and put Hillary in the White House.0 -
Unfortunately, I've decided to sit this one out (I was a 2015 £3-er).PlatoSaid said:
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.0 -
You are three quid short of a pound.ThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
Especially as it always used to be assumed that the more left wing MPs were in the safer seats, isolated from the swings of the electorate?SouthamObserver said:What the polls seem to be saying is that Labour will lose heavily to the Tories in the marginals, while keeping most of the core vote seats. Terrible, terrible stuff. The one very small consolation is that UKIP have a hell of a lot of work to do before they are going to mount a serious challenge.
0 -
What is that likely to mean, voting wise?PlatoSaid said:
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.0 -
If I thought my £25 vote would make any difference to the end result it would be a worthwhile investment for the £500+ windfall I would get... As the electorate has been rigged in a way that I suspect makes things far more Corbynite than the NEC and PLP realise I'll keep my money...YellowSubmarine said:I signed up to the Saving Labour site and had done the psychological contortions needed to pay £3 to save fully functioning democracy in the UK but... It was the coup instigators who were told hiked the fee to £25 and retroactively disenfranchised new full members. Apart from reminding me of everything that's kept me out of the Labour Party all my life where is the strategy ? Why attempt to mobilise centrists to join AND make it bloody difficult at the same time ? I'll keep my £25 and wait for SDP2 if that's their attitude.
Labour as party that aims for Parliament and power is dead... The sooner the PLP realise that and act upon it the more likely they are to survive the next election...0 -
I think BT are having problems again0
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Hard not to see Corbyn's price on Betfair as valueTissue_Price said:At least the Labour Party may now be able to settle its debts before it dies.
0 -
Listening back to PMQ.
Corbyn attacking Matron for the falling proportion of younger people buying their houses between 1998 and 2016 ie two thirds government by his own party, and turning querulous when it was pointed out.
Dear God, that man is a gormless oaf.0 -
ah I see only SNP are true Scots?malcolmg said:
He is a halfwit and called himself North British, he is no real Scotsman.JonnyJimmy said:
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
indeed and Labour knows theirs.SouthamObserver said:
And the Tories have been throwing money at them for six years :-)chestnut said:Pensioners:
Tory 58 Labour 15 UKIP 13
Old folk - the children of Beveridge - have written Labour off.
They know their client vote.0 -
If Corbyn is on the ballot, he wins.peter_from_putney said:
What is that likely to mean, voting wise?PlatoSaid said:
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.
If next week's legal challenge suceeds then Labour is into even deeper legal problems and could be looking at lawsuits from people who have just paid £25, as well as Corbyn himself who was not required to collect any nominations.0 -
It's either a moment of surprise revolution, or incredible blindness - Labour membership has never been more popular in modern times, and either they really are more reflective of the wider public than we think, or might prove appealing to it more than we think, or it is a party making itself unelectable in a really extreme way by total choice.PlatoSaid said:
Holy Hell.Tissue_Price said:@STJamesl
Am hearing that by close of play around 150k people will have become registered supporters in the Labour leadership contest
Blimey, they should have made it £100 a pop.
That's stunning if true.0 -
Crumbs, when did a party ever shift 10 points either way between polls? Admittedly a gap since April and the April one looks a bit dodgy if the Tories were at 30% and UKIP 20%!
But blimey, this doesn't half look good for May - and she's hardly started yet!0 -
That's right, 'proper Scots' must be SNP, as our SNP posters have consistently told us.nunu said:
ah I see only SNP are true Scots?malcolmg said:
He is a halfwit and called himself North British, he is no real Scotsman.JonnyJimmy said:
I don't think Malc considers Brown to be a true ScotsmanThreeQuidder said:
Because of Gordon Brown.malcolmg said:If you are talking about borrowing , why is England borrowing £100B a year you halfwit.
Just in case you've forgotten him, he's Scottish.0 -
It just needs to go down well with the selectorate at present. Unless he is leader it matters not.John_M said:
Owen Smith doesn't want Brexit. That's going to go down well in Northern areas.TheScreamingEagles said:Sub samples alert, but even in LONDON the Tories are ahead
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7557520256783073320 -
I just can't see Owen Smith being the type to inspire 150,000 sign ups. Not even 50,000.0