I wonder how many relatively moderate Labour MPs may look at seats they have recently taken off the Lib Dems and conclude that a rosette switch might prove wise where the Lib Dems were still functioning and able to put up a good showing.
There really aren't very many seats in that category though. Cambridge, Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green, that Leicester seat the LDs took in a by election... struggling to think of any others...
Burnley is the 2nd most vulnerable ex LD seat and needs a bit over 4% swing
LDs are in a bad place. Even if they get a 5% swing against the tories they win back only 10 seats on UNS. And they won't get a 5% swing...
Although they did well in Scottish Parliament fptp seats taking Edinburgh West and Fife North east against the dominant SNP.
I wonder how many relatively moderate Labour MPs may look at seats they have recently taken off the Lib Dems and conclude that a rosette switch might prove wise where the Lib Dems were still functioning and able to put up a good showing.
There really aren't very many seats in that category though. Cambridge, Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green, that Leicester seat the LDs took in a by election... struggling to think of any others...
Burnley is the 2nd most vulnerable ex LD seat and needs a bit over 4% swing
LDs are in a bad place. Even if they get a 5% swing against the tories they win back only 10 seats on UNS. And they won't get a 5% swing...
Ah, yes, forgot about Burnley. Rochdale too, for that matter.
I feel for the LibDems, given that they did they right thing for the country in going into Coalition and didn't deserve annihilation. But it's not our fault they spent the previous 20 years fighting most of their battles against Tory opposition. It's only 11 years ago they were trying a decapitation strategy in Maidenhead FFS.
Once the careers of Farron and Lamb are over, their seats must surely be on track to return to their rightful ownership. Hard to see where they can revive, unless they look to build on their local organisation base in places like Liverpool and Sheffield.
The trouble with claiming there was no coup is... you know... that there was! And it was pretty obvious.... widely reported in papers, organized mass-resignation, attempt to keep Corbyn off the ballot etc.
That doesn't make it illegitimate.
You're right it doesn't. But it does make it tricky to argue that it was Corbyn who trashed the big tent...
I wonder how many relatively moderate Labour MPs may look at seats they have recently taken off the Lib Dems and conclude that a rosette switch might prove wise where the Lib Dems were still functioning and able to put up a good showing.
As Chairman of one of the (I think it was 5) constituencies where we refused to stand aside for the sitting labour MP to stand as an SDP candidate don't expect Liberal Democrats to be too enthusiastic to welcome a useless ex Labour MP! -Ours was Ron Brown in Hackney South(George Browns brother)
Lib Dems are not Labour Lite.
The problem was a lot of their voters were - half jumped ship the instant they weren't, and their other issues squeezed the rest.
Probably true that many Labour socialist sympathisers voted and/or joined Lib Dems after the Iraq vote. It did the Lib Dems no good.
It would again be no good for Lib Dems to take current Labour socialist sympathisiers deserting Corbyn.
Lib Dems need to stay liberal and free trade and not be converted to Labour Lite by Labour deserters.
The 'weak opposition' argument is an outright myth. Many of the key figures from the Major administration were still around, having handed over a strong and thriving economy.
Of the six most senior figures in the Major government, two lost their seats, one suffered a serious heart problem within days of the election and had to give up frontline politics, two went to the backbenches and only one - Howard - stayed on for any length of time, leaving the shadow cabinet in 1999 before returning in 2002.
That left Hague, Lilley, Ancram, Gillian Sheppard and er, not many others to try and oppose 419 MPs with a mere 164 MPs.
Is it any wonder so many PFI disasters date from this time? Or that the government's foreign policy under the egregious Robin Cook consisted of lying down to have its belt tickled by the US and the EU? Or that so many diabolically bad laws were passed, ceding the supremacy of parliament to the ECHR? Or that the government pressed on with abolishing GM schools and the NHS internal market which had to be shamefacedly and expensively reintroduced when it was realised that their replacements were a much worse failure? Or that the government became obsessed with fox-hunting?
If you genuinely think strong oppositions don't matter, you don't understand adversarial democratic systems.
Also, the skills required for government are not the same as those required in opposition. It took the best part of the Tories' first term in government to work out that opposition required more than policy debates on the one hand and nit-picking on the other.
Administrative ability counts for very little in opposition (except in the leader, who has a party machine to run), but a person's effectiveness in the media and the Commons becomes far more important.
Is that not an argument for dumping a system, mostly, devised in the 18th century that guarantees we have secretaries of state who by and large are unfit for the duties they hold in relation to good governance. For example, in what universe would it be thought sensible to appoint a small town solicitor, whose only experience of economics was running the office petty cash account, as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Yet we did that (Alistair Darling), and we have made some even more imaginative appointments since.
Never Mind tweaking the electoral system. maybe we should have a rethink about the role of government ministers and a method of appointing them and holding the accountable that actually matches the needs of the 21st century not the 18th.
Probably already mentioned, but an interesting sub-plot from the YouGov Labour poll is that Corbyn is now LEAST popular with London members, and more popular in "provincial England". Despite the stereotype about how he's only popular with the Islington middle-class, while unpopular with "traditional" Labour members.
That squares with my anecdotal experience: in my Northern CLP, Corbyn is still very popular, people feel that they've finally got their party back. That is not so much about him being left-wing, but just the idea that there's finally a Labour leader who's "for the people" rather than another career politician just interested in scratching the backs of the other rich sods down in London. The PLP "moderates" have a lot of work to do to shake off that perception.
Very interesting. Maybe the Londoners are more upset about the EU vote while the Northerners don't care as much?
I wonder how many relatively moderate Labour MPs may look at seats they have recently taken off the Lib Dems and conclude that a rosette switch might prove wise where the Lib Dems were still functioning and able to put up a good showing.
There really aren't very many seats in that category though. Cambridge, Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green, that Leicester seat the LDs took in a by election... struggling to think of any others...
Burnley is the 2nd most vulnerable ex LD seat and needs a bit over 4% swing
LDs are in a bad place. Even if they get a 5% swing against the tories they win back only 10 seats on UNS. And they won't get a 5% swing...
Ah, yes, forgot about Burnley. Rochdale too, for that matter.
I feel for the LibDems, given that they did they right thing for the country in going into Coalition and didn't deserve annihilation. But it's not our fault they spent the previous 20 years fighting most of their battles against Tory opposition. It's only 11 years ago they were trying a decapitation strategy in Maidenhead FFS.
Once the careers of Farron and Lamb are over, their seats must surely be on track to return to their rightful ownership. Hard to see where they can revive, unless they look to build on their local organisation base in places like Liverpool and Sheffield.
The Lib Dems are in terminal decline in Liverpool, I think (their decline goes back to before they went into Coalition). They were mainly powered there by the Protestant working-class who couldn't bear to vote for the "papist" Labour Party. But that generation of Protestants who cared about such things is rapidly dying off.
I wonder how many relatively moderate Labour MPs may look at seats they have recently taken off the Lib Dems and conclude that a rosette switch might prove wise where the Lib Dems were still functioning and able to put up a good showing.
Hornsey & Wood Green is the 'first' and most obvious one that is likely to switch back I think. PPCs are being selected already though, so the Labour rebels will have to get their skates on.
Huppert will be taking back Cambridge from the trots.
Edit: Just seen the Lab majority in Hornsey - blimey !
Anyway Cambridge will be heading back at the least
Hornsey could swing heavily again, target high number of graduates.
I wonder how many relatively moderate Labour MPs may look at seats they have recently taken off the Lib Dems and conclude that a rosette switch might prove wise where the Lib Dems were still functioning and able to put up a good showing.
There really aren't very many seats in that category though. Cambridge, Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green, that Leicester seat the LDs took in a by election... struggling to think of any others...
Burnley is the 2nd most vulnerable ex LD seat and needs a bit over 4% swing
LDs are in a bad place. Even if they get a 5% swing against the tories they win back only 10 seats on UNS. And they won't get a 5% swing...
Ah, yes, forgot about Burnley. Rochdale too, for that matter.
I feel for the LibDems, given that they did they right thing for the country in going into Coalition and didn't deserve annihilation. But it's not our fault they spent the previous 20 years fighting most of their battles against Tory opposition. It's only 11 years ago they were trying a decapitation strategy in Maidenhead FFS.
Once the careers of Farron and Lamb are over, their seats must surely be on track to return to their rightful ownership. Hard to see where they can revive, unless they look to build on their local organisation base in places like Liverpool and Sheffield.
As a Burnley lad and former resident, I'd say Burnley is pretty safe for Labour now. If it went anywhere, it would be to a revitalised north/WWC-oriented UKIP not the Lib Dems, although I can't see that realistically.
The 'weak opposition' argument is an outright myth. Many of the key figures from the Major administration were still around, having handed over a strong and thriving economy.
Of the six most senior figures in the Major government, two lost their seats, one suffered a serious heart problem within days of the election and had to give up frontline politics, two went to the backbenches and only one - Howard - stayed on for any length of time, leaving the shadow cabinet in 1999 before returning in 2002.
That left Hague, Lilley, Ancram, Gillian Sheppard and er, not many others to try and oppose 419 MPs with a mere 164 MPs.
Is it any wonder so many PFI disasters date from this time? Or that the government's foreign policy under the egregious Robin Cook consisted of lying down to have its belt tickled by the US and the EU? Or that so many diabolically bad laws were passed, ceding the supremacy of parliament to the ECHR? Or that the government pressed on with abolishing GM schools and the NHS internal market which had to be shamefacedly and expensively reintroduced when it was realised that their replacements were a much worse failure? Or that the government became obsessed with fox-hunting?
If you genuinely think strong oppositions don't matter, you don't understand adversarial democratic systems.
Also, the skills required for government are not the same as those required in opposition. It took the best part of the Tories' first term in government to work out that opposition required more than policy debates on the one hand and nit-picking on the other.
Administrative ability counts for very little in opposition (except in the leader, who has a party machine to run), but a person's effectiveness in the media and the Commons becomes far more important.
Is that not an argument for dumping a system, mostly, devised in the 18th century that guarantees we have secretaries of state who by and large are unfit for the duties they hold in relation to good governance. For example, in what universe would it be thought sensible to appoint a small town solicitor, whose only experience of economics was running the office petty cash account, as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Yet we did that (Alistair Darling), and we have made some even more imaginative appointments since.
Never Mind tweaking the electoral system. maybe we should have a rethink about the role of government ministers and a method of appointing them and holding the accountable that actually matches the needs of the 21st century not the 18th.
Be fair though Mr Llama, they were pretty much unfit for those duties in the eighteenth century as well. Look at the great success of the Marquis of Carmarthen as Secretary for Foreign Affairs.
You are right that the economy is key. Too often the Left have focused on how to spend the proceeds of the economy rather than on how to make the economy work effectively. The pre-1989 view of how to manage the economy: nationalization / some form of planning/command economy etc failed and nothing has really developed to replace it. Until the left can find a view on how the economy should work it will be left bereft. Or it can accept that the right has won on the economy and focus all its efforts on redistribution of the wealth thereby created.
There are two issues with this:-
1. Redistribution/high taxation may have damaging effects on the economy i.e. the very things the left want to focus on may cause them to mess up the economy. 2. The Left have been very reluctant to focus on value for money when spending - and that has led people to mistrust them even if they think their heart is in the right place. People may not like high taxation but will put up with it if the money raised is spent sensibly on worthwhile matters. But they will not do so if the money is wasted.
So if Labour is not going to challenge how the economy works then it really needs to do a 180 degree turn on spending and become very much concerned with what it gets for its spending rather than - as now - seeing lots of spending as a good regardless of the outcome. I don't see that happening at the moment but it is something that an intelligent Labourite might want to think about. The concept of value for money should not simply be conceded to the right, as Labour has too often done.
A Moroccan man has just stabbed an eight year old girl, her two sisters and their mother at a French Alps holiday resort. He wasn't happy with the way they were dressed.
Nuts.
I expect that the offender was not a radical methodist.
A Moroccan man has just stabbed an eight year old girl, her two sisters and their mother at a French Alps holiday resort. He wasn't happy with the way they were dressed.
Nuts.
These random attacks by individual Islamists are going to do more damage to community relations and cause more grief for individual Muslims than the big attacks by some AQ mastermind.
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
The trouble with claiming there was no coup is... you know... that there was! And it was pretty obvious.... widely reported in papers, organized mass-resignation, attempt to keep Corbyn off the ballot etc.
That doesn't make it illegitimate.
You're right it doesn't. But it does make it tricky to argue that it was Corbyn who trashed the big tent...
The trouble with claiming there was no coup is... you know... that there was! And it was pretty obvious.... widely reported in papers, organized mass-resignation, attempt to keep Corbyn off the ballot etc.
Indeed - Corbyn's sacking of Hilary Benn was a subsequent factor of an organised coup already in place, not the prelude to a mass protest by the PLP.
Yes, when Donald Brind writes "They all tried to make a go of the Corbyn project but ended up resigning after Corbyn sacked Hilary Benn in the middle of the night" - I am sure that Corbyn supporters will have quite a different view on this sequence of events! There's nothing wrong with being fiercely loyal to Labour and opposing Corbyn being its leader. But I think sometimes a view to the bigger picture is needed than "Corbyn sacked Hilary Benn in the middle of the night"... I mean, what preceded that, and why did Corbyn do it? Were the resignees fully committed to the Big Tent right up to the moment that Benn was sacked, then all of a sudden this mysterious and unprompted sacking changed their minds?
Some people may think that, but I think there will be a lot of grassroots Labour members who take a rather dimmer view of it all.
I take a dim view of Hilary Benn and some of his fellow travellers kicking it off when they did. They should have waited longer.
I take a much dimmer view that once this had mushroomed so far that the situation was irretrievable, and over 80% of the PLP had supported a no confidence motion, Corbyn chose to split the party rather than work to allow it to come back together.
I see the IMF has cut the UK's growth forecast so we're going to be doing almost as badly as Germany. Remain were right. This is a disaster.
Growth based on importing cheap labour so that GDP goes up while GDP per head remains the same isn't real growth. And that is all that anywhere in Europe has done (at best) for the past 8 years..
Probably already mentioned, but an interesting sub-plot from the YouGov Labour poll is that Corbyn is now LEAST popular with London members, and more popular in "provincial England". Despite the stereotype about how he's only popular with the Islington middle-class, while unpopular with "traditional" Labour members.
That squares with my anecdotal experience: in my Northern CLP, Corbyn is still very popular, people feel that they've finally got their party back. That is not so much about him being left-wing, but just the idea that there's finally a Labour leader who's "for the people" rather than another career politician just interested in scratching the backs of the other rich sods down in London. The PLP "moderates" have a lot of work to do to shake off that perception.
What does "moderate" mean when you use it here? Is it just anyone opposed to Corbyn being leader, or are you referring to political views?
The Labour membership is very focused on London and south east so you'd expect there to be a wider range of opinions.
A Moroccan man has just stabbed an eight year old girl, her two sisters and their mother at a French Alps holiday resort. He wasn't happy with the way they were dressed.
Nuts.
I expect that the offender was not a radical methodist.
The trouble with claiming there was no coup is... you know... that there was! And it was pretty obvious.... widely reported in papers, organized mass-resignation, attempt to keep Corbyn off the ballot etc.
That doesn't make it illegitimate.
You're right it doesn't. But it does make it tricky to argue that it was Corbyn who trashed the big tent...
Not if he did it first.
Oh great.
One of our two main political parties arguing about who did the nasty thing first.
I thought three year olds weren't allowed the vote because of their emotional immaturity and lack of cognitive development. Clearly there must be some other reason.
Be fair though Mr Llama, they were pretty much unfit for those duties in the eighteenth century as well. Look at the great success of the Marquis of Carmarthen as Secretary for Foreign Affairs.
My dearest doctor, I don't mind haggling about how successful individual politicians were two hundred plus years ago, and such conversations can keep the likes of you and I amused for years. However, we are actually living in the 21st Century and I feel we deserve a political system fit for the time. What we have ain't.
Of the six most senior figures in the Major government, two lost their seats, one suffered a serious heart problem within days of the election and had to give up frontline politics, two went to the backbenches and only one - Howard - stayed on for any length of time, leaving the shadow cabinet in 1999 before returning in 2002.
That left Hague, Lilley, Ancram, Gillian Sheppard and er, not many others to try and oppose 419 MPs with a mere 164 MPs.
Is it any wonder so many PFI disasters date from this time? Or that the government's foreign policy under the egregious Robin Cook consisted of lying down to have its belt tickled by the US and the EU? Or that so many diabolically bad laws were passed, ceding the supremacy of parliament to the ECHR? Or that the government pressed on with abolishing GM schools and the NHS internal market which had to be shamefacedly and expensively reintroduced when it was realised that their replacements were a much worse failure? Or that the government became obsessed with fox-hunting?
If you genuinely think strong oppositions don't matter, you don't understand adversarial democratic systems.
Also, the skills required for government are not the same as those required in opposition. It took the best part of the Tories' first term in government to work out that opposition required more than policy debates on the one hand and nit-picking on the other.
Administrative ability counts for very little in opposition (except in the leader, who has a party machine to run), but a person's effectiveness in the media and the Commons becomes far more important.
Is that not an argument for dumping a system, mostly, devised in the 18th century that guarantees we have secretaries of state who by and large are unfit for the duties they hold in relation to good governance. For example, in what universe would it be thought sensible to appoint a small town solicitor, whose only experience of economics was running the office petty cash account, as Chancellor of the Exchequer? Yet we did that (Alistair Darling), and we have made some even more imaginative appointments since.
Never Mind tweaking the electoral system. maybe we should have a rethink about the role of government ministers and a method of appointing them and holding the accountable that actually matches the needs of the 21st century not the 18th.
You have a suggestion?
Ministers have a civil service to support them and an opposition, backbenchers and select committees (and ministerial colleagues) to hold them to account. If they're not up to it, they'll get found out.
Darling might have had little direct experience of economics but he'd had 10 years' experience of running government departments, which is at least as relevant.
Balls. Some of us have a big red against Ms Eagle.
Can I say to the bookies it was a palpable error on my part and I meant to lay her sister ?
She ought to be ahead, the other guy is a magic money tree devotee
But she makes Corby look charismatic!?
Corbyn cannot win a GE, neither can Eagle.. its a question of least worst and that's Eagle.. Cant stand her shrill voice personally, but at least she isn't bonkers like Corbyn
I see the IMF has cut the UK's growth forecast so we're going to be doing almost as badly as Germany. Remain were right. This is a disaster.
Growth based on importing cheap labour so that GDP goes up while GDP per head remains the same isn't real growth. And that is all that anywhere in Europe has done (at best) for the past 8 years..
I was attempting sarcasm. Christ its hot. From the report, we'll be growing more than Germany, France and Italy (poor Italy).
However, I completely agree with you. Since 2010 we achieved economic growth by stealing Eastern Europe's workforce.
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
Have I missed anything?
I don't think so, Labour may come up with more bizarre contortions yet though
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
Have I missed anything?
Hopefully you have missed a few more unbelievable twists and turns that will drop in before the bit where Corbyn finally gets re-elected. Otherwise we'll be entitled to a refund, surely?
I see the IMF has cut the UK's growth forecast so we're going to be doing almost as badly as Germany. Remain were right. This is a disaster.
Growth based on importing cheap labour so that GDP goes up while GDP per head remains the same isn't real growth. And that is all that anywhere in Europe has done (at best) for the past 8 years..
And in any case can someone please provide me with a link the last time the IMF were right. Thanx.
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
Have I missed anything?
No. But I feel that a free owl should be included somewhere in all that. For light relief.
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
Balls. Some of us have a big red against Ms Eagle.
Can I say to the bookies it was a palpable error on my part and I meant to lay her sister ?
She ought to be ahead, the other guy is a magic money tree devotee
But she makes Corby look charismatic!?
Corbyn cannot win a GE, neither can Eagle.. its a question of least worst and that's Eagle.. Cant stand her shrill voice personally, but at least she isn't bonkers like Corbyn
But that's the trouble with Eagle in a nutshell - she isn't even best at being the worst.
Balls. Some of us have a big red against Ms Eagle.
Can I say to the bookies it was a palpable error on my part and I meant to lay her sister ?
There is such a dirty pun could be made on that!
Fortunately I don't have a dirty mind.
Are you still at a naked red with Angela ?
You know, I would have lost nothing by going without that image in my head. I'm really regretting that other comment. Does anyone have any mind bleach?
A Moroccan man has just stabbed an eight year old girl, her two sisters and their mother at a French Alps holiday resort. He wasn't happy with the way they were dressed.
Nuts.
These random attacks by individual Islamists are going to do more damage to community relations and cause more grief for individual Muslims than the big attacks by some AQ mastermind.
Sean T won't be the only one.
This is what I fear. I'll be fine tho I can go to Dubai etc other Muslims not so much....
The trouble with claiming there was no coup is... you know... that there was! And it was pretty obvious.... widely reported in papers, organized mass-resignation, attempt to keep Corbyn off the ballot etc.
Indeed - Corbyn's sacking of Hilary Benn was a subsequent factor of an organised coup already in place, not the prelude to a mass protest by the PLP.
Yes, when Donald Brind writes "They all tried to make a go of the Corbyn project but ended up resigning after Corbyn sacked Hilary Benn in the middle of the night" - I am sure that Corbyn supporters will have quite a different view on this sequence of events! There's nothing wrong with being fiercely loyal to Labour and opposing Corbyn being its leader. But I think sometimes a view to the bigger picture is needed than "Corbyn sacked Hilary Benn in the middle of the night"... I mean, what preceded that, and why did Corbyn do it? Were the resignees fully committed to the Big Tent right up to the moment that Benn was sacked, then all of a sudden this mysterious and unprompted sacking changed their minds?
Some people may think that, but I think there will be a lot of grassroots Labour members who take a rather dimmer view of it all.
There is literally nothing that will convince Corbynistas he should not be in leading the Labour party. he can devise policy on the hoof and stand in the Commons and speak out against agreed Labour policy, and they will forgive him that. He is the Great Leader. But anyone reasonable reading the accounts given by Greenwood and Debbonaire about their interactions with Corbyn as shadow ministers (Don links to them) would surely conclude that he is not capable of leadership.
Corbyn cannot win a GE, neither can Eagle.. its a question of least worst and that's Eagle.. Cant stand her shrill voice personally, but at least she isn't bonkers like Corbyn
Corbyn isn't bonkers. Or hard left. Or half the things people say he is. But the list of things he isn't also includes a leader and collegiate and competent. Its Corbyn's supporters who are bonkers.
I don't think Eagle would do the job half as well as Owen Smith - she is of a generation tainted by the touch of Blair. So if she becomes the "unity" candidate it gets all that much harder.
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
Have I missed anything?
Actually you missed out this:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 20m20 minutes ago If what I hear is true and Labour has already signed up >50,000 registered supporters that's some £1.25m for party coffers.
Aka: because the "moderates" insisted on a ridiculously high £25 fee for registration this time, that means that Corbyn will have a huge warchest to buttress his position in future, if he gets re-elected.
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
Have I missed anything?
Actually you missed out this:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 20m20 minutes ago If what I hear is true and Labour has already signed up >50,000 registered supporters that's some £1.25m for party coffers.
Aka: because the "moderates" insisted on a ridiculously high £25 fee for registration this time, that means that Corbyn will have a huge warchest to buttress his position in future, if he gets re-elected.
Wonder what the Corbyn/non Corbyn split is on those ?
Social media indicated strongish Corbyn - but who knows.
Ministers have a civil service to support them and an opposition, backbenchers and select committees (and ministerial colleagues) to hold them to account. If they're not up to it, they'll get found out.
Darling might have had little direct experience of economics but he'd had 10 years' experience of running government departments, which is at least as relevant.
Mr. Herdson, I'll be brief, not least because Herself is due home any moment and that will cut my posting time short. So I'll skip the arguments, especially over the so called checks and balances that you mention, but which, in my experience, often do not actually work, and cut to the chase.
A directly elected PM, who can appoint whoever he/she wants to a cabinet/ministerial post, all of who are answerable to parliament (via the bar of the houses) and the Crown.
So, in summary, when we all thought that nothing on this earth could be devised to make Labour's situation worse, it looks as though the 'moderates' might have found a way: resign on mass from the Shadow cabinet and hold a motion in which a large majority of MPs express no confidence in the leader in the hope of dislodging him, fail to dislodge him leaving the PLP at war with the party, spend weeks dithering about it whilst the Conservative Party chooses a new leader and unites in double-quick time, finally decide they need a unity candidate to challenge Corbyn, squabble over who the unity candidate should be eventually putting forward two unity candidates both of whom are duffers, in the meantime transparently try to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, ignominiously fail to rig the rules so Corbyn can't stand, end up with a bizarre mess on who is qualified to vote in the contest, fail to bring the unions with them - all this working towards the grand finale of Corbyn being re-selected and the party even more disunited and chaotic than it was to start with.
Have I missed anything?
Actually you missed out this:
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 20m20 minutes ago If what I hear is true and Labour has already signed up >50,000 registered supporters that's some £1.25m for party coffers.
Aka: because the "moderates" insisted on a ridiculously high £25 fee for registration this time, that means that Corbyn will have a huge warchest to buttress his position in future, if he gets re-elected.
The cost of running a leadership election with that many members is not insignificant.
Ministers have a civil service to support them and an opposition, backbenchers and select committees (and ministerial colleagues) to hold them to account. If they're not up to it, they'll get found out.
Darling might have had little direct experience of economics but he'd had 10 years' experience of running government departments, which is at least as relevant.
Mr. Herdson, I'll be brief, not least because Herself is due home any moment and that will cut my posting time short. So I'll skip the arguments, especially over the so called checks and balances that you mention, but which, in my experience, often do not actually work, and cut to the chase.
A directly elected PM, who can appoint whoever he/she wants to a cabinet/ministerial post, all of who are answerable to parliament (via the bar of the houses) and the Crown.
So the US constitution with a couple of tweaks then?
Corbyn cannot win a GE, neither can Eagle.. its a question of least worst and that's Eagle.. Cant stand her shrill voice personally, but at least she isn't bonkers like Corbyn
Corbyn isn't bonkers. Or hard left. Or half the things people say he is. But the list of things he isn't also includes a leader and collegiate and competent. Its Corbyn's supporters who are bonkers.
I don't think Eagle would do the job half as well as Owen Smith - she is of a generation tainted by the touch of Blair. So if she becomes the "unity" candidate it gets all that much harder.
Agree with this. Smith is the only one with any chance, and that is a small one.
What will be interesting will be to see the ways in which the Corbynistas justify not voting for him. I guess it will be Trident.
Labour's problem is that it has moved too far from patriotic socialism, focussing on improving the lot of the British working classes, and promoting its values through the British state overseas to one obsessed by identity politics and internationalism, barely even acknowledging the British state has value.
This is a function of both class (Labour really now is a middle class party) and the fact patriotism is viewed in left-wing circles to be decidedly non-U.
But it doesn't have to be this way. The loudest cheers Churchill got for his defiant speeches in the Commons in May 1940 came from the Labour benches, and our nuclear weapons programme was launched by Labour.
Labour need to get comfortable with Britain and get genuinely passionate about its traditional white working class base, culturally and socially as well as economically, and not just focus on the next identity battle - currently looking like its Transgenderism.
Corbyn cannot win a GE, neither can Eagle.. its a question of least worst and that's Eagle.. Cant stand her shrill voice personally, but at least she isn't bonkers like Corbyn
Corbyn isn't bonkers. Or hard left. Or half the things people say he is. But the list of things he isn't also includes a leader and collegiate and competent. Its Corbyn's supporters who are bonkers.
I don't think Eagle would do the job half as well as Owen Smith - she is of a generation tainted by the touch of Blair. So if she becomes the "unity" candidate it gets all that much harder.
Agree with this. Smith is the only one with any chance, and that is a small one.
What will be interesting will be to see the ways in which the Corbynistas justify not voting for him. I guess it will be Trident.
Look at the way Smith has been unpicked over the past couple of days - he won't last the course. His sums don't add up. His background isn't quite what he presents it to be. And he has absolutely no profile.
If that is what it takes to have a chance, Labour really is fecked.
Who would have thought that when we had all the "Gord is great" and "Gord9000" comments that we'd have Corbyn as leader of the Labour party
Who'd have thought during the pomp of the Cameroonian pom-pom girls & boys that we'd be out of the EU, have May as pm and Dave playing Angry Birds on the back benches.
Corbyn cannot win a GE, neither can Eagle.. its a question of least worst and that's Eagle.. Cant stand her shrill voice personally, but at least she isn't bonkers like Corbyn
Corbyn isn't bonkers. Or hard left. Or half the things people say he is. But the list of things he isn't also includes a leader and collegiate and competent. Its Corbyn's supporters who are bonkers.
I don't think Eagle would do the job half as well as Owen Smith - she is of a generation tainted by the touch of Blair. So if she becomes the "unity" candidate it gets all that much harder.
Agree with this. Smith is the only one with any chance, and that is a small one.
What will be interesting will be to see the ways in which the Corbynistas justify not voting for him. I guess it will be Trident.
I guess I might be seen as a corbynista but will probably vote for smith if he continues to talk about actual policy in his current vein.
Trident is obviously an issue for a number of people; it's not unreasonable to regard it as important but probably it's only salient to 20-25pc of Corbyn supporters. For many of the others I think Smith's rather variable backstory on (for example) NHS privatisation is likely to make it hard to take his newfound lefty zeal as convincing as Jezza's. If he performs well and Corbyn performs badly it may still be enough.
At what point will we conceive of Erdogan as the Islamist Hitler?
Having someone like that in charge of a country with a rational economy, a modern military, and a large stockpile of NATO nuclear weapons on his territory is more terrifying than anything else happening in the world at the moment.
A Moroccan man has just stabbed an eight year old girl, her two sisters and their mother at a French Alps holiday resort. He wasn't happy with the way they were dressed.
Nuts.
These random attacks by individual Islamists are going to do more damage to community relations and cause more grief for individual Muslims than the big attacks by some AQ mastermind.
Sean T won't be the only one.
This is what I fear. I'll be fine tho I can go to Dubai etc other Muslims not so much....
At what point will we conceive of Erdogan as the Islamist Hitler?
Having someone like that in charge of a country with a rational economy, a modern military, and a large stockpile of NATO nuclear weapons on his territory is more terrifying than anything else happening in the world at the moment.
Erdogan is still something of a moderate, there are plenty more extreme than him.
Corbyn cannot win a GE, neither can Eagle.. its a question of least worst and that's Eagle.. Cant stand her shrill voice personally, but at least she isn't bonkers like Corbyn
Corbyn isn't bonkers. Or hard left. Or half the things people say he is. But the list of things he isn't also includes a leader and collegiate and competent. Its Corbyn's supporters who are bonkers.
I don't think Eagle would do the job half as well as Owen Smith - she is of a generation tainted by the touch of Blair. So if she becomes the "unity" candidate it gets all that much harder.
Agree with this. Smith is the only one with any chance, and that is a small one.
What will be interesting will be to see the ways in which the Corbynistas justify not voting for him. I guess it will be Trident.
Any chance of what though? Winning a GE? Or ousting Corbyn? Not the same thing; and only one has to be the priority right now.
Le Monde is running an extraordinary editorial at the moment warning about the risk of democracy leading to parties trying to outbid each other on dealing with terrorism. Instead they propose to 'listen to the experts' and hold a commission to look at the organisation of the security services. The French establishment is dangerously out of touch.
The trouble with claiming there was no coup is... you know... that there was! And it was pretty obvious.... widely reported in papers, organized mass-resignation, attempt to keep Corbyn off the ballot etc.
That doesn't make it illegitimate.
You're right it doesn't. But it does make it tricky to argue that it was Corbyn who trashed the big tent...
Not if he did it first.
If he did what first?
My understanding is that Corbyn heard Benn was organizing a coup/plot/movement against him. They spoke and Benn admitted this and said he had lost faith in him. Corbyn fired Benn. Then half the shadow cabinet resigned.
In what world is that Jeremy Corbyn abandoning the big tent? Should he have said- well I understand that you have no confidence in me- but I'd really rather like you to stay!? Benn has said on tv he understands why he was fired.
I'm not saying they're wrong to trigger a leadership election. I'm not saying I would vote for Corbyn again. But to suggest that Corbyn has instigated this leadership election?
At what point will we conceive of Erdogan as the Islamist Hitler?
Having someone like that in charge of a country with a rational economy, a modern military, and a large stockpile of NATO nuclear weapons on his territory is more terrifying than anything else happening in the world at the moment.
The kindest interpretation I could think of regarding Vote Leaves infamous leaflet was that it illustrated that the EU's expansion plans would give it a border with Iraq and Syria (if you recall, both those countries were included on the map).
We now have a real risk of having a version of them on our doorstep with armed forces equal in size to the rest of NATO's European forces put together. Never mind Putin. This is a massive issue.
'Vote for me, I'm northern and have tits' 'Didn't work for Prescott.'
How many MPs would take Prescott over Corbyn right now?
Or Ed. Hunners.
Ed Miliband exclusive in the Sunil on Sunday:
"This leadership battle is wrong when negotiations are underway, the PLP and Corbyn have acted in a reckless and provocative manner, and both sides need to set aside the rhetoric and get around the negotiating table to stop this happening again."
Comments
Ah, yes, forgot about Burnley. Rochdale too, for that matter.
I feel for the LibDems, given that they did they right thing for the country in going into Coalition and didn't deserve annihilation. But it's not our fault they spent the previous 20 years fighting most of their battles against Tory opposition. It's only 11 years ago they were trying a decapitation strategy in Maidenhead FFS.
Once the careers of Farron and Lamb are over, their seats must surely be on track to return to their rightful ownership. Hard to see where they can revive, unless they look to build on their local organisation base in places like Liverpool and Sheffield.
But it does make it tricky to argue that it was Corbyn who trashed the big tent...
It would again be no good for Lib Dems to take current Labour socialist sympathisiers deserting Corbyn.
Lib Dems need to stay liberal and free trade and not be converted to Labour Lite by Labour deserters.
Never Mind tweaking the electoral system. maybe we should have a rethink about the role of government ministers and a method of appointing them and holding the accountable that actually matches the needs of the 21st century not the 18th.
It amazes me how people can live in a country, and yet be so alien to its culture.
Interesting.
Can I say to the bookies it was a palpable error on my part and I meant to lay her sister ?
You are right that the economy is key. Too often the Left have focused on how to spend the proceeds of the economy rather than on how to make the economy work effectively. The pre-1989 view of how to manage the economy: nationalization / some form of planning/command economy etc failed and nothing has really developed to replace it. Until the left can find a view on how the economy should work it will be left bereft. Or it can accept that the right has won on the economy and focus all its efforts on redistribution of the wealth thereby created.
There are two issues with this:-
1. Redistribution/high taxation may have damaging effects on the economy i.e. the very things the left want to focus on may cause them to mess up the economy.
2. The Left have been very reluctant to focus on value for money when spending - and that has led people to mistrust them even if they think their heart is in the right place. People may not like high taxation but will put up with it if the money raised is spent sensibly on worthwhile matters. But they will not do so if the money is wasted.
So if Labour is not going to challenge how the economy works then it really needs to do a 180 degree turn on spending and become very much concerned with what it gets for its spending rather than - as now - seeing lots of spending as a good regardless of the outcome. I don't see that happening at the moment but it is something that an intelligent Labourite might want to think about. The concept of value for money should not simply be conceded to the right, as Labour has too often done.
Sean T won't be the only one.
Have I missed anything?
The Treasury would punish an underspent department at the next SR. That's one thing I would change in a heartbeat.
I take a much dimmer view that once this had mushroomed so far that the situation was irretrievable, and over 80% of the PLP had supported a no confidence motion, Corbyn chose to split the party rather than work to allow it to come back together.
If that 'works' in France, it may be repeated here and elsewhere.
Let's hope Eagle beats off Smith. As it were.
The Labour membership is very focused on London and south east so you'd expect there to be a wider range of opinions.
One of our two main political parties arguing about who did the nasty thing first.
I thought three year olds weren't allowed the vote because of their emotional immaturity and lack of cognitive development. Clearly there must be some other reason.
Ministers have a civil service to support them and an opposition, backbenchers and select committees (and ministerial colleagues) to hold them to account. If they're not up to it, they'll get found out.
Darling might have had little direct experience of economics but he'd had 10 years' experience of running government departments, which is at least as relevant.
However, I completely agree with you. Since 2010 we achieved economic growth by stealing Eastern Europe's workforce.
Labour MP on leadership nominations: "High turnout. Owen in front."
I don't think Eagle would do the job half as well as Owen Smith - she is of a generation tainted by the touch of Blair. So if she becomes the "unity" candidate it gets all that much harder.
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 20m20 minutes ago
If what I hear is true and Labour has already signed up >50,000 registered supporters that's some £1.25m for party coffers.
Aka: because the "moderates" insisted on a ridiculously high £25 fee for registration this time, that means that Corbyn will have a huge warchest to buttress his position in future, if he gets re-elected.
Angela Eagle really isn't one of them.
With anything?
Heck I'm even green on David Miliband (although that's more needs must)..
Social media indicated strongish Corbyn - but who knows.
A directly elected PM, who can appoint whoever he/she wants to a cabinet/ministerial post, all of who are answerable to parliament (via the bar of the houses) and the Crown.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-36832095
Or is it a clever way to continue being talked about?
https://twitter.com/petermannionmp/status/755177972227768320
What will be interesting will be to see the ways in which the Corbynistas justify not voting for him. I guess it will be Trident.
This is a function of both class (Labour really now is a middle class party) and the fact patriotism is viewed in left-wing circles to be decidedly non-U.
But it doesn't have to be this way. The loudest cheers Churchill got for his defiant speeches in the Commons in May 1940 came from the Labour benches, and our nuclear weapons programme was launched by Labour.
Labour need to get comfortable with Britain and get genuinely passionate about its traditional white working class base, culturally and socially as well as economically, and not just focus on the next identity battle - currently looking like its Transgenderism.
If that is what it takes to have a chance, Labour really is fecked.
'Vote for me, I'm northern and have tits'
'Didn't work for Prescott.'
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/755403349579669504
Week is a long time etc.
Edited extra bit: it's = the bad consequences.
Hunners.
"The Screaming Eagles" sounds like an oblique reference to Angela and Maria!
Trident is obviously an issue for a number of people; it's not unreasonable to regard it as important but probably it's only salient to 20-25pc of Corbyn supporters. For many of the others I think Smith's rather variable backstory on (for example) NHS privatisation is likely to make it hard to take his newfound lefty zeal as convincing as Jezza's. If he performs well and Corbyn performs badly it may still be enough.
Having someone like that in charge of a country with a rational economy, a modern military, and a large stockpile of NATO nuclear weapons on his territory is more terrifying than anything else happening in the world at the moment.
Surely that's worse than mixing up the Milibands!
Does Turkey have nuclear weapons on its territory?
He's still youngish.
My understanding is that Corbyn heard Benn was organizing a coup/plot/movement against him. They spoke and Benn admitted this and said he had lost faith in him. Corbyn fired Benn.
Then half the shadow cabinet resigned.
In what world is that Jeremy Corbyn abandoning the big tent? Should he have said- well I understand that you have no confidence in me- but I'd really rather like you to stay!? Benn has said on tv he understands why he was fired.
I'm not saying they're wrong to trigger a leadership election. I'm not saying I would vote for Corbyn again. But to suggest that Corbyn has instigated this leadership election?
Maybe I've misunderstood...
We now have a real risk of having a version of them on our doorstep with armed forces equal in size to the rest of NATO's European forces put together. Never mind Putin. This is a massive issue.
"This leadership battle is wrong when negotiations are underway, the PLP and Corbyn have acted in a reckless and provocative manner, and both sides need to set aside the rhetoric and get around the negotiating table to stop this happening again."
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-h-bombs-in-turkey
Wherein lies the danger - the French might vote for Le Pen?