politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s new government, we’re nearly there

First like Owen Smith?

Took all my restraint to not describe this as the most pleb government in history

Where are we with regards to the maximum size of the Cabinet?

With 2 new departments and only 1 being abolished, surely that limit has been exceeded...

It feels like there is a lot less star power in this Cabinet compared to the last one. Getting rid of the Cameroons in totality may be short sighted with such a small majority to defend. Some may seek to leave the house, and in 2020 it will make the gains against the Lib Dems tough to defend.

Ooh, Karen Bradley is a fellow mathematics almunus from Imperial College. Good to see some actual maths skills in the government.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Took all my restraint to not describe this as the most pleb government in history

One based more on talent than parents wallets?

Johnson, Rudd, Fallon, Hunt and Evans the privately educated members.

May ties with Macmillan for sackings.

Toms said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tour de France more of a farce than the labour leadership battle...

But I get the impression that the Froome disaster wasn't self administered.
Unlike Labour (so far).

https://twitter.com/cycling_podcast/status/753610361304145920

Arf

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Took all my restraint to not describe this as the most pleb government in history

Hurrah !

Res publica pleborum

vox populi audiendum est

sine Borisem Etonia delenda est

isn't sine followed by the ablative not accusative?

Scotland? If it's not Mundell, it's going to be interesting. Apart from nice offices, I believe, it isn't the most rewarding job. Mundell is a nice enough man, but you suspect he is happier checking in on his constituency and turning up to vote rather than be responsible for other people's policies.

AndyJS said:

Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z

They have no idea do they - we are going out

JohnO said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Took all my restraint to not describe this as the most pleb government in history

Hurrah !

Res publica pleborum

vox populi audiendum est

sine Borisem Etonia delenda est

isn't sine followed by the ablative not accusative?

you are in all likelihood correct, but TSE doesnt know that :-)

FPT:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

The_Apocalypse said:

MP_SE said:

I wish Priti got Chief Whip.

Some of you Tories are a bit weird to say the least.

@GIN1138 Has there ever been a match up of two more unlikeable people?

@numbertwelve Yeah, IDS could go there. I doubt he'll be Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

"You Tories"

How about "you Labour"? You have a weird leadership problem

Right now I don't think I can really be a part of the Labour party. It's for Corbynites only these days, sadly.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Took all my restraint to not describe this as the most pleb government in history

Are you going to eff off and join the Sheffield Hallam LibDems?

not_on_fire said:

Ooh, Karen Bradley is a fellow mathematics almunus from Imperial College. Good to see some actual maths skills in the government.

Biochemistry, 1997 for me

Alanbrooke said:

JohnO said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Took all my restraint to not describe this as the most pleb government in history

Hurrah !

Res publica pleborum

vox populi audiendum est

sine Borisem Etonia delenda est

isn't sine followed by the ablative not accusative?

you are in all likelihood correct, but TSE doesnt know that :-)

Considering I've got a thread header for this weekend, delayed from last weekend, which includes 'delenda est' in the headline, I do know.

I might have to start channelling some Catullus 16 now

Scott_P said:

@twlldun: DEFRA? Send Leadsom to deal with angry farmers complaining about their subsidies being cut?

Troll level: master.

Repeat after me:

"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"

Some interesting choices and perhaps some questionable ones as well. She has the power and the right to choose who she wants and she is clearly stamping her authority in line with her vision for the future. Have to see how it plays out.

The Boris/Fox/Davis triumvirate for me has potential disaster written all over it. They will have to work together on some pats of the negotiations you would think and all three of them might have a different vision for a post UK brexit. On the one hand May might think Brexit is your mess deal with it and if any of those right wing backbenchers kick up a fuss she can just say well I gave your lot the power to sort it out. But on the other hand if it doesn't work out she could still take damage from it, people will question her judgement.

Apart from the Boris decision Hunt remaining in post is probably the most surprising to me. I've been largely supportive of Hunt during the industrial action with the Junior Doctors and now feel it's time to impose the contract. But May could have taken the easy option and delivered a fresh start in replacing him but didn't. I have no doubt the doctors will not take this decision well but they have their own political agenda and nothing may please them.

Osborne? He could come back at some point from this but he will have to want to remain an MP. I would imagine some financial institutions will be looking at his political future with interest. Maybe he will decide he is done with Politics.

Some really big beasts and talented people on the backbenches, I can't imagine Cameron/Osborne/Gove sitting together lol

Watching the TdF, what a nightmare - why no crowd barriers at the top of the stage? That minute Froome had to wait for his team must have felt like an hour.

Scott_P said:

@twlldun: DEFRA? Send Leadsom to deal with angry farmers complaining about their subsidies being cut?

Troll level: master.

People who tweet this kind of shite are morons who know nothing of UK agricultural policies pre-EEC.

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@twlldun: DEFRA? Send Leadsom to deal with angry farmers complaining about their subsidies being cut?

Troll level: master.

Repeat after me:

"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"

Give us a break from this repeated inanity!

A response to the inane ramblings about us losing "EU Money". You REMAINERs only have yourselves to blame!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

not_on_fire said:

Ooh, Karen Bradley is a fellow mathematics almunus from Imperial College. Good to see some actual maths skills in the government.

Biochemistry, 1997 for me

Imperial is a dump. It takes all riff-raff.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I wonder what Cameron's reshuffle would have looked like if the referendum had tilted the other way. Not much like this, I'd guess!

Normally reshuffles are a five dimensional puzzle to not upset the incumbents, reward the loyal, encourage those that haven't had preferment and refresh the line up while staying within the fixed number of posts. Even when moving from opposition ministers mostly take the posts they have been shadowing.

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

not_on_fire said:

Ooh, Karen Bradley is a fellow mathematics almunus from Imperial College. Good to see some actual maths skills in the government.

Biochemistry, 1997 for me

Imperial is a dump. It takes all riff-raff.

No, that's Oxford! (Hat-tip to General Melchett!).

@jameskirkup: Foreigners get Boris. Farmers get Leadsom. Dfid gets Priti. Doctors keep Hunt. Top trolling from Theresa May. #banter

Scott_P said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Repeat after me:

"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"

Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?

It says subsidy, which is the key point...

We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.

JohnO said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Is it truly egalitarian if there are hardly any former public schoolboys and schoolgirls there? You'd think if it was truly egalitarian, based on merit that there would be some. Penalising people for their parents choices is not egalitarian.

Four out of twenty, which is still way more than nationally.

For top grades educationally, I don't think so.

Based solely on pop, about twice what it should be.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

JohnO said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Took all my restraint to not describe this as the most pleb government in history

Hurrah !

Res publica pleborum

vox populi audiendum est

sine Borisem Etonia delenda est

isn't sine followed by the ablative not accusative?

you are in all likelihood correct, but TSE doesnt know that :-)

Considering I've got a thread header for this weekend, delayed from last weekend, which includes 'delenda est' in the headline, I do know.

I might have to start channelling some Catullus 16 now

cur

Sunil_Prasannan said:

We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.

Also not what the post said or was about. Keep digging.

John_M said:

Scott_P said:

@twlldun: DEFRA? Send Leadsom to deal with angry farmers complaining about their subsidies being cut?

Troll level: master.

People who tweet this kind of shite are morons who know nothing of UK agricultural policies pre-EEC.

Were farmers and fishermen not the trade most likely to have voted Leave? Apart from the big agri-businesses with full time administrators, farmers all hate the CAP with a passion.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

It's still 13/14 men and 8 women, by my count.

Ruth for the Scottish Office?!

That would be sensible.Is it constitutional and can you be in the cabinet if you are not a member of (the Westminster) parliament?

This would be a cherry on top...

@jessphillips: Id put a fiver on Anna Soubry or Therese Coffey for Leader of the house

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@twlldun: DEFRA? Send Leadsom to deal with angry farmers complaining about their subsidies being cut?

Troll level: master.

Repeat after me:

"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"

Give us a break from this repeated inanity!

Just as soon as the Europhile morons stop talking about 'EU money'.

Toms said:

Pulpstar said:

Toms said:

AndyJS said:

Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Second brexit

Seriously, and please forgive my ignorance, but is not the Commons the only, final, arbiter in British law? Or did Parliament actually approve the referendum to start with? If it was Cameron's choice, or even that of the Tory party, then sod that.

Act was passed last year:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Referendum_Act_2015

David Mundell remains Secretary of State for Scotland in @theresa_may's new cabinet

Toms said:

Pulpstar said:

Toms said:

AndyJS said:

Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Second brexit

Seriously, and please forgive my ignorance, but is not the Commons the only, final, arbiter in British law? Or did Parliament actually approve the referendum to start with? If it was Cameron's choice, or even that of the Tory party, then sod that.

The referendum was authorised by the EU Referendum Act 2015, passed by Parliament last year.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Referendum_Act_2015

TheWhiteRabbit said:

FF43 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

It's still 13/14 men and 8 women, by my count.

Ruth for the Scottish Office?!

That would be sensible.Is it constitutional and can you be in the cabinet if you are not a member of (the Westminster) parliament?

Not clear. However if Her Majesty appoints, I see no reason why not.

Give Davidson a peerage!

Richard_Tyndall said:

Just as soon as the Europhile morons stop talking about 'EU money'.

There was no mention of "EU money", except by Sunil...

Sandpit said:

John_M said:

Scott_P said:

@twlldun: DEFRA? Send Leadsom to deal with angry farmers complaining about their subsidies being cut?

Troll level: master.

People who tweet this kind of shite are morons who know nothing of UK agricultural policies pre-EEC.

Were farmers and fishermen not the trade most likely to have voted Leave? Apart from the big agri-businesses with full time administrators, farmers all hate the CAP with a passion.

It's hard to be nuanced even on here, never mind Twitter.

Round here, the small farmers (mainly hill farms) are likely to be happy. The bigger agri-businesses will be quaking in their boots. As a rule of thumb, MNCs and large businesses like the EU. At some arbitrary point (which varies by sector) smaller businesses don't.

Toms said:

RobD said:

Toms said:

Pulpstar said:

Toms said:

AndyJS said:

Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Second brexit

Seriously, and please forgive my ignorance, but is not the Commons the only, final, arbiter in British law? Or did Parliament actually approve the referendum to start with? If it was Cameron's choice, or even that of the Tory party, then sod that.

The AV referendum was binding, this one was not. They parliament did vote to hold a referendum though, so would be stupid to ignore it.

So this referendum was advisory only?

Yes. But that won't change the fact we'll be leaving.

Scott_P said:

John_M said:

The UK has subsidised its farmers since the year dot.

Which is the bit Sunil seems to having some trouble with...

So we won't be losing any money after all? Good.

jonny83 said:

Some interesting choices and perhaps some questionable ones as well. She has the power and the right to choose who she wants and she is clearly stamping her authority in line with her vision for the future. Have to see how it plays out.

The Boris/Fox/Davis triumvirate for me has potential disaster written all over it. They will have to work together on some pats of the negotiations you would think and all three of them might have a different vision for a post UK brexit. On the one hand May might think Brexit is your mess deal with it and if any of those right wing backbenchers kick up a fuss she can just say well I gave your lot the power to sort it out. But on the other hand if it doesn't work out she could still take damage from it, people will question her judgement.

Apart from the Boris decision Hunt remaining in post is probably the most surprising to me. I've been largely supportive of Hunt during the industrial action with the Junior Doctors and now feel it's time to impose the contract. But May could have taken the easy option and delivered a fresh start in replacing him but didn't. I have no doubt the doctors will not take this decision well but they have their own political agenda and nothing may please them.

Osborne? He could come back at some point from this but he will have to want to remain an MP. I would imagine some financial institutions will be looking at his political future with interest. Maybe he will decide he is done with Politics.

Some really big beasts and talented people on the backbenches, I can't imagine Cameron/Osborne/Gove sitting together lol

Yes a good summary. It really does seem to be a case of making people see out the consequences of their decisions (Hunt, The Terrible Trio) which I'm not sure is the best way of optimising the outcome.

I like Rudd as HS she is certainly an effective and capable operator, Fallon stays as attack dog, if you have an opportunity to detoxify Health why not take it? Greening deeply unimpressive at anything...

Politics for me just got a bit more boring as there seem to be a bunch of not-very-interestings now in power.

If this is supposed to be the safe pair of hands, getting on with the job, no flashiness cabinet then I suppose it's mission accomplished. I can't help thinking, however (and with no catiness), that this cabinet is unexceptional in brainpower and ability as well as character.

I will not be watching PM May's first PMQs that's for sure. Perhaps they should screen it at midnight, as a service to all the insomniacs.

@spignal: Jeremy Hunt: when do I get my £350m a week for the NHS then?
Andrea Leadsom: as soon as I tell farmers there won't be any more subsidies

Scott_P said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

So we won't be losing any money after all? Good.

Unless you are a farmer...

All the farmers I spoke to feared Out because they didn't trust the UK govt to maintain or replicate the subsidies. Now, there is a different discussion to be had about the sense or otherwise of subsidies but dear god if I was a farmer now, knowing La Leaden Leadsom was at the controls of DEFRA, I might be scouring the planning and change of use laws very carefully...

Scott_P said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

So we won't be losing any money after all? Good.

Unless you are a farmer...

So we're not losing non-EU money by leaving the EU?

jonny83 said:

Some interesting choices and perhaps some questionable ones as well. She has the power and the right to choose who she wants and she is clearly stamping her authority in line with her vision for the future. Have to see how it plays out.

The Boris/Fox/Davis triumvirate for me has potential disaster written all over it. They will have to work together on some pats of the negotiations you would think and all three of them might have a different vision for a post UK brexit. On the one hand May might think Brexit is your mess deal with it and if any of those right wing backbenchers kick up a fuss she can just say well I gave your lot the power to sort it out. But on the other hand if it doesn't work out she could still take damage from it, people will question her judgement.

[Snipped]

If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.

I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.

What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.

Jonathan said:

If before all of this, someone had suggested that Boris/Fox/Davis were the dream team to lead any important negotiation it would have been considered a joke.

Well, at one point there was a suggestion that it might have been Andrea Leadsom, so, in comparison...