Cameron's finest hour was undoubtedly forming the coalition government then running it smoothly for 5 years - no mean feat. He's been sloppy, slapdash & lazy since winning the majority - three adjectives no one has ever applied to May......
The irony is that Cameron's majority on the back of LibDem gains ensured that the referendum went ahead whereas a continuing Coalition would have blocked it and he'd still be PM et al.
Funny old lark this politics business.
Only the SNP voted against the European Union Referendum Act 2015. Passed by 544 votes to 53!
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.
They won't vote CDU.
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.
Tamils in Kingston & Surbiton vote Con or Libdem.
Hmm. even more racist stereo-typing!
Which is what I was trying to highlight about surbiton's post.
Ethnic minorities disproportionately vote Labour - this is not news. However, a combination of David Cameron and the emergence of UKIP have made the Tories a much more attractive proposition.
I think that's probably all true. I hope it continues under May and that a left wing alternative to the Labour Party which might be a natural home for large parts of the BME demographic emerges in due course.
Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?
Plenty of clowns on here I imagine
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?
Because the Commission who overlooked their illegal antics are also in charge of the EU response because they set the air quality standards. The German government also seems to be giving them protection because they know all the German car makers have been at it, as proved by the new UK tests.
All car manufacturers would be using the same OEM suppliers, and those OEM suppliers had to know what was going on.
Do you have figures for the overlap between OEM suppliers and manufacturers?
I thought this was all about software, anyway. Where do OEM suppliers fit into that?
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?
The only actual quote from a US trade official there is one saying we will have to wait and see. And you misquoted him, no doubt accidently.
I don't much like your implication. I never claimed to quote from a particular article and my summary of the situation matches what was reported in the article.
You weren't supposed to like it. The FT article you linked to when pressed about your tenacious assertion didn't really support it, did it?
Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?
Plenty of clowns on here I imagine
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?
They are. Figures like $15 bn and upwards are floating around for the provision they have made for settling lawsuits.
Three EU countries lobbied for the tests to be made less rigorous
Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?
Plenty of clowns on here I imagine
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?
Because their customers couldn't give a flying f8ck.
Not really. It's the Commission that are holding back national responses as they want an EU wide settlement.
Maybe so, but their customers still couldn't give a f8ck.
"The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants."
Do not underestimate the importance of doing just that. A large number of civil servants, especially at the FCO, have just had the rug of their world pulled out from beneath them and will be struggling to cope with the new requirements. Those same civil servants will be doing a lot of the detail and writing the position papers.
To get a good deal for the UK those civil servants will need close guidance and support.
They need, in general, to be removed from the process entirely until the implementation stage.
I don't think it is possible to exclude civil servants from government business. Someone has to do the preparatory work and write the position papers for a minister.
Of course it is. You set up your own unit with your own experts to do the prep work. Actually, if we want this to happen, such a move is probably essential. The civil service are working for the other side.
I'll stick up for the Civil servants here. The SCS and perhaps the GC6s might be obstructive.
The administrative grades will do the necessary. Despite all the brickbats, we have many very fine civil servants. That said, from my own experience, the quality range in the civil service is huge. The smartest people I've ever worked with were at Cheltenham. Sadly, so were the dimmest.
Gingrich was proving to be too dangerously liberal, Trump needs someone who will join his campaign to stoke up racial tension, promise economic pie in the sky and stop the wrong people from voting.
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
Gingrich was proving to be too dangerously liberal, Trump needs someone who will join his campaign to stoke up racial tension, promise economic pie in the sky and stop the wrong people from voting.
It feels like there is a lot less star power in this Cabinet compared to the last one. Getting rid of the Cameroons in totality may be short sighted with such a small majority to defend. Some may seek to leave the house, and in 2020 it will make the gains against the Lib Dems tough to defend.
You have to be kidding. I wonder what planet you live on , what stars are you talking about, seek help.
Gingrich was proving to be too dangerously liberal, Trump needs someone who will join his campaign to stoke up racial tension, promise economic pie in the sky and stop the wrong people from voting.
Donald Trump has joined the Labour party ?
Tom Watson would try anything in his efforts to stop Corbyn winning again.
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.
Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?
Plenty of clowns on here I imagine
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?
They are. Figures like $15 bn and upwards are floating around for the provision they have made for settling lawsuits.
That's only in the US though, in the EU they are flat refusing to pay anything.
Gingrich was proving to be too dangerously liberal, Trump needs someone who will join his campaign to stoke up racial tension, promise economic pie in the sky and stop the wrong people from voting.
Donald Trump has joined the Labour party ?
Tom Watson would try anything in his efforts to stop Corbyn winning again.
Mr. M, it would be slightly perverse if Sturgeon claimed WTO terms with the EU were unacceptable whilst explicitly accepting them for Scottish-UK [ex-Scotland] trade...
Mr. 2013, the Remain campaign should've won easily. A better deal, a better campaign would've won it 60/40 at a canter.
I think it was more a problem of timing. If it were held before 2015 Remain would have won easily.
Well according to the polls (yes I know), support for the EU was linked with the popularity of the government that was supporting the EU.
Leave had large leads historically but for brief moments associated with GE campaigns when governments made any promises imaginable to boost their popularity, and honeymoon periods for new governments.
Since 2010 that was a short period from the summer of 2014 till the winter of 2015/16.
Mr. M, it would be slightly perverse if Sturgeon claimed WTO terms with the EU were unacceptable whilst explicitly accepting them for Scottish-UK [ex-Scotland] trade...
We are going to have to accept that if there is a Sindy II ref, economic arguments are not necessarily going to resonate. Project Fear III is not the right approach.
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.
It is coming to a country near you soon, Hamiltonace will be crying in his cornflakes
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.
It is coming to a country near you soon, Hamiltonace will be crying in his cornflakes
You have my best wishes. Will be sorry to see Scotland go, of course.
Scotland? If it's not Mundell, it's going to be interesting. Apart from nice offices, I believe, it isn't the most rewarding job. Mundell is a nice enough man, but you suspect he is happier checking in on his constituency and turning up to vote rather than be responsible for other people's policies.
Is there any reason why Ruth shouldn't represent Scotland's interests in the Cabinet?
She'd need to be accountable to the House of Commons, but that can be structured by having frequent select committees and a junior to answer questions in the house
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.
It seems that the WTO solution is the most likely end point. The issue that May faces is that this solution is probably not supported by most people in the UK. I spent some time working in Korea which operated mostly on a WTO basis with the world.
The country is quite insular and 95% of people drive Korean made cars. The manufacturing and technology base are strong but service and retail are not. It would be quite a transition for the UK.
Am drinking one of my finest reds to celebrate. No department has ever been such a waste of time as the DECC on the climate change part.
Why isn't the mainstream media talking about record amounts of snow in Australia, snow in July in 3 US states, snow in the Alps in July, deaths due to the cold in Peru and record cold temperatures in many parts of South America, and cooling going on in the world's oceans. Wouldn't be related to the lack of sun spots would it?!
It feels like there is a lot less star power in this Cabinet compared to the last one. Getting rid of the Cameroons in totality may be short sighted with such a small majority to defend. Some may seek to leave the house, and in 2020 it will make the gains against the Lib Dems tough to defend.
You have to be kidding. I wonder what planet you live on , what stars are you talking about, seek help.
MaxPB may perceive Nicky Morgan or Matt Hancock or Oliver Letwin as stars.
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?
The only actual quote from a US trade official there is one saying we will have to wait and see. And you misquoted him, no doubt accidently.
I don't much like your implication. I never claimed to quote from a particular article and my summary of the situation matches what was reported in the article.
You weren't supposed to like it. The FT article you linked to when pressed about your tenacious assertion didn't really support it, did it?
You implied I deliberately misquoted an article when I did no such thing. I object to you defaming me. That's all.
The SNP have been blindsided by Brexit as the country begins to see the impact a Scexit would have. On the other hand it solidifies their position as the only major sane party in Scotland.
Well, yet another fascinating day with the completion of the May administration. As I'm not a Conservative, I'll leave the internal party machinations to others.
It's likely the new Government will enjoy the traditional "let's give them a chance" attitude. This is a greater upheaval than 1990 which was primarily about one individual and the illusion we have a "new" Government will aid May in changing the style and tone if not necessarily the direction.
As a LEAVE voter three weeks ago and determined to see both the end of Single Market and the consequential Freedom of Movement, the early tune up of the new Government encourages. There is much hard work to be done and compromises will need to be made but we start, it seems, with a will to explore options more varied and outward-looking than had hitherto seemed likely.
Boris's role as jester to the world seems obvious - the FCO has been a largely meaningless post for years and neither Hague nor Hammond did anything to enhance that. Boris could be the one to revolutionise how we see the world and how the world sees us (and the recent devaluation won't hinder).
The "weak link" at the top table looks to be Rudd - I know she shone in a tv debate but the Home Office isn't a straightforward task and sometimes the Minister is forced to argue an unpopular case against the current flow of opinion.
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.
The SNP have been blindsided by Brexit as the country begins to see the impact a Scexit would have. On the other hand it solidifies their position as the only major sane party in Scotland.
May has really surprised me - a massive recasting of government and a massive power shift away from the Cameroons. Surely they can't be happy?
They are a dwindling band of yesterdays men.....and Cameron will be personally loyal - so I doubt they'll get up to much mischief. Quite a skilful redeployment of the talents - if you BREXIT you own it.....
Can we have a pact not to use "if you Brexit you own it"?
It was mildly amusing the first 50 or so times (not just you) but I've now heard it a 1,000 times or more...
Looking forward to seeing how ITV4 cover the chaos on Ventoux today. Feel sorry for the commissaires - think they did the right thing by awarding Froome the same time as his other GC contenders but it really was a can of worms either way. Oh dear!
The SNP have been blindsided by Brexit as the country begins to see the impact a Scexit would have. On the other hand it solidifies their position as the only major sane party in Scotland.
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
Any hot tips for Hungary the weekend after next @Morris_Dancer? I wish Mercedes would bring someone in better than Rosberg to challenge Lewis such as Alonso - obviously never going to happen but Rosberg has got a real inferiority complex as Austria showed which historically has been his best track relative to Lewis.
Lewis can get away with his jetset lifestyle and still know that he is just better than Rosberg. I'd like to see him really challenged against Alonso or Verstappen where he couldn't get away with such liberties. Here's hoping!
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.
There are hardly any former public schoolboys in the cabinet except the dangerous one who has been appointed straight to Foreign Secretary without any experience in government, in shadowing government, or in foreign affairs. A truly amazingly bad pick, of a kind that has been avoided for 150 years. London may have a population of 9 million, but it's still just a city and its mayor is only a mayor.
If Boris doesn't renounce his US citizenship right now, what's his reason?
Regarding Mike Pence as Donald Trump's running mate, it was looking like him or Newt Gingrich, but the reporting of the leak is odd. This piece in the Guardian is a mishmash of clips. Trump is a highly intelligent man who will choose a running mate who can be played on the board in a very simple and easy to explain orientation to amplify the ticket's message. Unfortunately Ben Jacobs and Alan Yuhas haven't worked out what that will be if he chooses Pence.
More pollsters seem to be offering a Gary Johnson (Libertarian) option than a Jill Stein (Green) one, for some reason. Stein won't be on the ballot in all states, but she could still be a major factor and some polls suggest that she will win votes from a significant proportion of registered Democrats who voted for Bernie Sanders in the primaries. She may well win a bigger share of the popular vote than Johnson - probably bigger than Ralph Nader won on a Green ticket in 2000, especially if Rupert Murdoch helps out his favoured candidate Donald Trump by giving her some airspace.
Percentages of the popular vote for the Libertarian and Green candidates in the last four elections:
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.
Oh JackW you're showing your true colours as an apologist for the establishment. I thought that you were better than to cover up the financial fraud, theft and money laundering on 'that road'?
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.
I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be right
Scotland? If it's not Mundell, it's going to be interesting. Apart from nice offices, I believe, it isn't the most rewarding job. Mundell is a nice enough man, but you suspect he is happier checking in on his constituency and turning up to vote rather than be responsible for other people's policies.
Is there any reason why Ruth shouldn't represent Scotland's interests in the Cabinet?
She'd need to be accountable to the House of Commons, but that can be structured by having frequent select committees and a junior to answer questions in the house
Good idea. Would also keep her busy - less time for her Roy 'Chubby' Brown tribute act.
Oh JackW you're showing your true colours as an apologist for the establishment. I thought that you were better than to cover up the financial fraud, theft and money laundering on 'that road'?
Hunchman mate we have been over this many times before. No one on here wants to cover up anything. But neither do they want to see this site lost because you can't understand the basic rules of libel.
As has already been suggested if you are that concerned about this then set up your own site and put all your claims on there. We will happily come and read it and see what you have to say and you are putting all the risk on yourself rather than hiding behind a pseudonym and expecting Mike to take all the heat. It is not the actions of a gentleman.
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.
I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be right
Good. I'll look forward to you posting it in 2020 even - it will already be noticeably cooler by then.
Oh JackW you're showing your true colours as an apologist for the establishment. I thought that you were better than to cover up the financial fraud, theft and money laundering on 'that road'?
Naming an individual as you have done without evidence or proof is libel.
'Parliament's chummy back-slapping farewell for David Cameron is Westminster at its worst
..Because "the House uniting to pay tribute" is actually everything that's wrong with politics, everything that makes people hate their rulers and makes them vote to kick them as hard as possible, or not vote at all because they're all the same, a cosy club of smug so-and-sos who look after their own and sod the rest of us.'
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.
Sindy II, is a benefit, not a risk. We are in the process of clearing away lots of EU, clutter, why hang on to some more we can well do without?
There are hardly any former public schoolboys in the cabinet except the dangerous one who has been appointed straight to Foreign Secretary without any experience in government, in shadowing government, or in foreign affairs. A truly amazingly bad pick, of a kind that has been avoided for 150 years. London may have a population of 9 million, but it's still just a city and its mayor is only a mayor.
If Boris doesn't renounce his US citizenship right now, what's his reason?
Watching his voxpop outside the FO just now, two things struck me:
1) he remains a clown - didn't even know the name of the French Foreign Sec; and 2) his mannerisms - pauses, repititions, etc - are troublingly similar to Eddie Izzard's.
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.
I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be right
Good. I'll look forward to you posting it in 2020 even - it will already be noticeably cooler by then.
Hunchman. Listen very carefully:
The moon flies at noon, while the fish sleep in Dover.
The moon flies at noon, while the fish sleep in Dover.
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.
It's his job to clearout the diplomats that have gone native and consider themselves European above all else. We need diplomats who truly put the national interest first and that should include avoiding anything that relinquishes our new found Independence. A good pick.
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.
Would be okay if there wasn't a dangerous situation to resolve.
Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.
I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be right
I think we all noticed that he's not willing to put his money where his mouth is.
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.
Would be okay if there wasn't a dangerous situation to resolve.
'Parliament's chummy back-slapping farewell for David Cameron is Westminster at its worst
..Because "the House uniting to pay tribute" is actually everything that's wrong with politics, everything that makes people hate their rulers and makes them vote to kick them as hard as possible, or not vote at all because they're all the same, a cosy club of smug so-and-sos who look after their own and sod the rest of us.'
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
But she does have as the first line(s) of defence three people she can sack, to distance herself from the situation (and remind people it was not of her making).
And she is meanwhile less vulnerable to leavers (other than possibly Farage) attacking her for not implementing Brexit in the 'right' way.
Off Topic: Trump's VP pick, never heard of him before, Mike Pence. He's gone for an old white guy - so played it safe.
Does this take pressure off of Clinton to pick a minority VP candidate? I think with Bernie's endorsement she has no need for Warren as VP so I don't expect an uberprogessive type. Are there any other suitable female candidates? Trump's weakness seems to be his misogyny, if Clinton can draw enough women away, to go with the nailed on black and latino votes, she won't need to worry about losing the WWC vote. And I think the WWC will break very heavily for Trump, more so than we expect (Brexit is a good indicator of that).
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
Personally, I think the Boris appointment is not because of some Machiavellian scheme that he'll fuck up and ruin his reputation, but more because him being there allows May to essentially take over the running of foreign affairs herself whenever she feels like it. Boris is notoriously lazy, and thus probably wouldn't object too much to May's team micromanaging everything, as long as it reduced his own workload; on the other hand, if she put a workaholic in the Foreign Office instead, they would probably be much more "territorial" and not let May take over the decision-making.
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
But she does have as the first line(s) of defence three people she can sack, to distance herself from the situation (and remind people it was not of her making).
And she is meanwhile less vulnerable to leavers (other than possibly Farage) attacking her for not implementing Brexit in the 'right' way.
I think it's a simple signal to Tory voters, but you may well be right. I just don't think we should forget that most Tories voted for Brexit.
In terms of Boris, as we've said before, the FCO has been neutered.
European relations will primarily be defined by May (as part of the Council) and Davies (at the working level). Trade is Fox. Boris will be glad handing people and being nice to the Yanks. It's not the job it used to be.
Theresa will be intimately involved in Brexit as well because if Brexit fails the whole government (Mrs May included) will carry the can.
That's not how cabinet Government works.
if the Minister for X screws up, the PM doesn't resign (normally)
No, but as far as the voters are concerned the government survives or falls on the success of Brexit.
It's not going to a matter that Brext can be compartmentalized to Boris, Davis and Fox and everyone else can get on with the actual government. Brexit IS this government.
Or put another way, if your consoling yourself that Theresa isn't really serious about Brexit, that she's going to let Boris screw up and then the whole thing will be forgotten about in a couple of years... Think again.
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
Ms May has committed to taking on Brexit and making it work.
Also, part of the jibes aimed at the leading Leavers is that they are a bit of a rag-tag-and-bobtail, meaning that they were never really coherent group in the way that a government is. All the more credit to them for standing out against the political consensus.
That very ad-hoc group encouraged millions of people to have their say. Now the people have spoken, it is entirely appropriate that the (new) government should pick up the result and make it work.
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
Personally, I think the Boris appointment is not because of some Machiavellian scheme that he'll fuck up and ruin his reputation, but more because him being there allows May to essentially take over the running of foreign affairs herself whenever she feels like it. Boris is notoriously lazy, and thus probably wouldn't object too much to May's team micromanaging everything, as long as it reduced his own workload; on the other hand, if she put a workaholic in the Foreign Office instead, they would probably be much more "territorial" and not let May take over the decision-making.
She is very micro-managing although of course hitherto hasn't had a whole government to micro-manage, just her department.
Will be interesting to see if she has the energy and bandwidth to micro-manage it all now.
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
But she does have as the first line(s) of defence three people she can sack, to distance herself from the situation (and remind people it was not of her making).
And she is meanwhile less vulnerable to leavers (other than possibly Farage) attacking her for not implementing Brexit in the 'right' way.
I think it's a simple signal to (Tory) voters,
I agree with that.
I was a Leave supporter, and I was a little worried that Ms May was going to find a pretext to ignore/overturn the referendum. It's reassuring to see three Leave MPs in key EU roles.
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
Can I have some of what your smoking?
1 All the evidence so far is that its the EU in a hurry 2 The EU is suffering almost as much as the UK right now 3. LDs as largest party - who opened up your strait jacket????
It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.
Sindy II, is a benefit, not a risk. We are in the process of clearing away lots of EU, clutter, why hang on to some more we can well do without?
My preference would be to suggest to the EU that the UK does a cut and paste of the new Canadian deal with something on grandfathering the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK and visa versa for Brits in EU country. If they don't accept that, just fall back on WTO rules, walk away from the EU immediately, then wait a few years until the German's realize that tariffs on their car exports are helping to fund the UK exchequer, to negotiate something even better.
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
Quite. I hate to think of what sort of organisations some of the posters on here work for and I hope none of them are in positions of leadership because they don't seem to understand it.
Leadership 101, Lesson 1: You can delegate authority but not responsibility.
Comments
I thought this was all about software, anyway. Where do OEM suppliers fit into that?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/24/uk-france-and-germany-lobbied-for-flawed-car-emissions-tests-documents-reveal?CMP=twt_gu
The administrative grades will do the necessary. Despite all the brickbats, we have many very fine civil servants. That said, from my own experience, the quality range in the civil service is huge. The smartest people I've ever worked with were at Cheltenham. Sadly, so were the dimmest.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
Mr. Glenn, possibly. But the migrant crisis had died down a little so it may've made things harder.
The next release is on 25th August.
But meh @ 1.1
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.
Leave had large leads historically but for brief moments associated with GE campaigns when governments made any promises imaginable to boost their popularity, and honeymoon periods for new governments.
Since 2010 that was a short period from the summer of 2014 till the winter of 2015/16.
She'd need to be accountable to the House of Commons, but that can be structured by having frequent select committees and a junior to answer questions in the house
It seems that the WTO solution is the most likely end point. The issue that May faces is that this solution is probably not supported by most people in the UK. I spent some time working in Korea which operated mostly on a WTO basis with the world.
The country is quite insular and 95% of people drive Korean made cars. The manufacturing and technology base are strong but service and retail are not. It would be quite a transition for the UK.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_-OxwNEFj4
Am drinking one of my finest reds to celebrate. No department has ever been such a waste of time as the DECC on the climate change part.
Why isn't the mainstream media talking about record amounts of snow in Australia, snow in July in 3 US states, snow in the Alps in July, deaths due to the cold in Peru and record cold temperatures in many parts of South America, and cooling going on in the world's oceans. Wouldn't be related to the lack of sun spots would it?!
You implied I deliberately misquoted an article when I did no such thing. I object to you defaming me. That's all.
Well, yet another fascinating day with the completion of the May administration. As I'm not a Conservative, I'll leave the internal party machinations to others.
It's likely the new Government will enjoy the traditional "let's give them a chance" attitude. This is a greater upheaval than 1990 which was primarily about one individual and the illusion we have a "new" Government will aid May in changing the style and tone if not necessarily the direction.
As a LEAVE voter three weeks ago and determined to see both the end of Single Market and the consequential Freedom of Movement, the early tune up of the new Government encourages. There is much hard work to be done and compromises will need to be made but we start, it seems, with a will to explore options more varied and outward-looking than had hitherto seemed likely.
Boris's role as jester to the world seems obvious - the FCO has been a largely meaningless post for years and neither Hague nor Hammond did anything to enhance that. Boris could be the one to revolutionise how we see the world and how the world sees us (and the recent devaluation won't hinder).
The "weak link" at the top table looks to be Rudd - I know she shone in a tv debate but the Home Office isn't a straightforward task and sometimes the Minister is forced to argue an unpopular case against the current flow of opinion.
Interesting planet you are on.
It was mildly amusing the first 50 or so times (not just you) but I've now heard it a 1,000 times or more...
Lewis can get away with his jetset lifestyle and still know that he is just better than Rosberg. I'd like to see him really challenged against Alonso or Verstappen where he couldn't get away with such liberties. Here's hoping!
Mr. Hunchman, it'll be interesting to see how things go.
The circumstances were unusual, but it is a sort of precedent.
If Boris doesn't renounce his US citizenship right now, what's his reason?
Regarding Mike Pence as Donald Trump's running mate, it was looking like him or Newt Gingrich, but the reporting of the leak is odd. This piece in the Guardian is a mishmash of clips. Trump is a highly intelligent man who will choose a running mate who can be played on the board in a very simple and easy to explain orientation to amplify the ticket's message. Unfortunately Ben Jacobs and Alan Yuhas haven't worked out what that will be if he chooses Pence.
More pollsters seem to be offering a Gary Johnson (Libertarian) option than a Jill Stein (Green) one, for some reason. Stein won't be on the ballot in all states, but she could still be a major factor and some polls suggest that she will win votes from a significant proportion of registered Democrats who voted for Bernie Sanders in the primaries. She may well win a bigger share of the popular vote than Johnson - probably bigger than Ralph Nader won on a Green ticket in 2000, especially if Rupert Murdoch helps out his favoured candidate Donald Trump by giving her some airspace.
Percentages of the popular vote for the Libertarian and Green candidates in the last four elections:
..............Lib...............Grn
2000 0.36% 2.74%
2004 0.32% 0.10%
2008 0.40% 0.12%
2012 0.99% 0.36%
hunchman @7.03 !!!!!!!!
Also, when did Charlie Falconer resign?
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.
Blimey. The new cabinet has highest % of state educated ministers since Atlee in 1945, says the Sutton Trust
As has already been suggested if you are that concerned about this then set up your own site and put all your claims on there. We will happily come and read it and see what you have to say and you are putting all the risk on yourself rather than hiding behind a pseudonym and expecting Mike to take all the heat. It is not the actions of a gentleman.
'Parliament's chummy back-slapping farewell for David Cameron is Westminster at its worst
..Because "the House uniting to pay tribute" is actually everything that's wrong with politics, everything that makes people hate their rulers and makes them vote to kick them as hard as possible, or not vote at all because they're all the same, a cosy club of smug so-and-sos who look after their own and sod the rest of us.'
http://tinyurl.com/zeuns3v
1) he remains a clown - didn't even know the name of the French Foreign Sec; and
2) his mannerisms - pauses, repititions, etc - are troublingly similar to Eddie Izzard's.
The moon flies at noon, while the fish sleep in Dover.
The moon flies at noon, while the fish sleep in Dover.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/steven-woolfe-i-am-proof-the-british-dream-is-real-and-thats-why/
Clinton 48 .. Trump 41
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/MIGravisPoll.pdf
Iowa - Gravis
Clinton 42 .. Trump 40
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/IOGravispoll.pdf
if the Minister for X screws up, the PM doesn't resign (normally)
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
And she is meanwhile less vulnerable to leavers (other than possibly Farage) attacking her for not implementing Brexit in the 'right' way.
Does this take pressure off of Clinton to pick a minority VP candidate? I think with Bernie's endorsement she has no need for Warren as VP so I don't expect an uberprogessive type. Are there any other suitable female candidates? Trump's weakness seems to be his misogyny, if Clinton can draw enough women away, to go with the nailed on black and latino votes, she won't need to worry about losing the WWC vote. And I think the WWC will break very heavily for Trump, more so than we expect (Brexit is a good indicator of that).
Clinton 43 .. Trump 41
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/COGravispoll.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/14/labour-right-shambles-jeremy-corbyn-questions-answer
Summary, Corbyn is shite; but the 'moderates' still have a hell of a lot of work to do to prove they would be any better.
In terms of Boris, as we've said before, the FCO has been neutered.
European relations will primarily be defined by May (as part of the Council) and Davies (at the working level). Trade is Fox. Boris will be glad handing people and being nice to the Yanks. It's not the job it used to be.
It's not going to a matter that Brext can be compartmentalized to Boris, Davis and Fox and everyone else can get on with the actual government. Brexit IS this government.
Or put another way, if your consoling yourself that Theresa isn't really serious about Brexit, that she's going to let Boris screw up and then the whole thing will be forgotten about in a couple of years... Think again.
Also, part of the jibes aimed at the leading Leavers is that they are a bit of a rag-tag-and-bobtail, meaning that they were never really coherent group in the way that a government is. All the more credit to them for standing out against the political consensus.
That very ad-hoc group encouraged millions of people to have their say. Now the people have spoken, it is entirely appropriate that the (new) government should pick up the result and make it work.
Will be interesting to see if she has the energy and bandwidth to micro-manage it all now.
Seems unlikely but is an unknown.
I was a Leave supporter, and I was a little worried that Ms May was going to find a pretext to ignore/overturn the referendum. It's reassuring to see three Leave MPs in key EU roles.
1 All the evidence so far is that its the EU in a hurry
2 The EU is suffering almost as much as the UK right now
3. LDs as largest party - who opened up your strait jacket????
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/poorer-than-their-parents-a-new-perspective-on-income-inequality
Leadership 101, Lesson 1: You can delegate authority but not responsibility.
However presently my broad projection is a Clinton win in the Electoral College 341/197
http://www.270towin.com/