Judging by May's rhetoric I'd bet on a GE this year.
May has said no general election.
She could use the line that she was only voted for by MPs and therefore wants a mandate from the public. With Labour in the state it's in there really isn't a better time for her.
Depends on what Labour do. If Corbyn is kept off the ballot, all bets are off.
May could then be facing Yvette/Chuka/Jarvis, which she won't fancy anything like as much.
Do you seriously expect the Labour party to take a decision that gives it even a remote chance of not losing a bucketful of seats at the next general election? Seriously? :-D
Leadsom showing a far greater understanding of parliamentary democracy than Corbyn. Admitted her level of PCP support is not enough for stable government. Credit to her for that.
Judging by May's rhetoric I'd bet on a GE this year.
May has said no general election.
She could use the line that she was only voted for by MPs and therefore wants a mandate from the public. With Labour in the state it's in there really isn't a better time for her.
Depends on what Labour do. If Corbyn is kept off the ballot, all bets are off.
May could then be facing Yvette/Chuka/Jarvis, which she won't fancy anything like as much.
Do you seriously expect the Labour party to take a decision that gives it even a remote chance of not losing a bucketful of seats at the next general election? Seriously? :-D
"Boeing will make the UK its European base for training, maintenance and repair for its defence aircraft."
We should have gone with the P-8 years ago.
Question: does any European country other than the UK operate Boeing defence aircraft? The exception I can think of is Italy which has the maintenance contract on its 767 airtankers.
I don't think the Germans do, but ISTR the French (of all people) use Boeing tankers and AWACS. The navy also use the Hawkeye (they needed to alter their carrier to operate it safely), though that's not a Being product.
This does not look like a cake walk premiership for Mrs May. She will start out with 100+ of her MPs not wanting her there and another group within her supporters, watching her carefully for what she does on Brexit and this "drift to the centre". Added to that are the rabid spreaders of poison, which Boles and Soubry rank amongst the worst (rank being the smell involved). If those folk feature in the new Govt, Mrs May will hardly be encouraging unity.
All the more reason for an election: 1. She has no working majority 2. Her party are divided 3. She has no mandate for Brexit, or from party members 4. Labour are even more divided
So call a September election, win a landslide, become the New Thatcher
Or don't, have a fractious never ending battle with Brexit/Boris fans demanding more faster that makes John Major's premiership look like a day at The Oval
Good to see David Herdson's prediction coming true before the comments on it were closed, thus restoring cosmic yin-yang balance after the Eagle Has Floundered one.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
Really can't see an election any time soon.
We need certainty and purpose now to sort out Brexit. Not weeks of further uncertainty whilst we fight an election campaign.
How can anyone predict how UKIP will fare? They in effect gave the Tories a majority (against all expectations) by monstering Labour in the marginals the Tories retained/won. Can May be so sure a 2016 GE will repeat that feat, and not harm Tory hopes. Plus GE2015 was about Miliband/Sturgeon vs Competent Dave - that no longer applies, and whilst of course Labour is currently encumbered by Jezza, he will have shored up Labour's appeal to Labour-inclined voters who didn't come out in 2015. All my leftie-inclined friends (and spouse...!) love Jez to bits even if they didn't vote Labour in 2015.
No GE until Brexit sorted at the very least, I suspect...
Think about this scenario:
1. May becomes PM 2. She works over the summer to agree Heads of Terms. 3. That includes full single market membership with a couple of small changes on free movement. 4. Corbyn still there and Labour not split. 5. Draw up a manifesto which includes lowering net migration to less than 200,000 in the short term and to "sustainable levels" in the long term while pledging to prioritise highly skilled migrants. Pledge to serve Article 50 as soon as the election is won. 6. Go to the country with Labour hopelessly split, but Momentum unable to deselect sitting MPs. 7. May wins a landslide and ~100 seat majority.
If you were the PM, would you not be tempted by that.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
If there's no membership contest - I'll be very pissed off.
I stopped voting for New Labour - I don't want it again run by someone equally keen on snooping.
Yay - a triple bonus - sensible PM choice, IDS AND Plato totally pissed off. Result!
This does not look like a cake walk premiership for Mrs May. She will start out with 100+ of her MPs not wanting her there and another group within her supporters, watching her carefully for what she does on Brexit and this "drift to the centre". Added to that are the rabid spreaders of poison, which Boles and Soubry rank amongst the worst (rank being the smell involved). If those folk feature in the new Govt, Mrs May will hardly be encouraging unity.
It's odd isn't that you avoid mentioning Duncan-Smith et al in relation to your penultimate sentence. It's almost as if you're not being entirely impartial.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
Really can't see an election any time soon.
We need certainty and purpose now to sort out Brexit. Not weeks of further uncertainty whilst we fight an election campaign.
How can anyone predict how UKIP will fare? They in effect gave the Tories a majority (against all expectations) by monstering Labour in the marginals the Tories retained/won. Can May be so sure a 2016 GE will repeat that feat, and not harm Tory hopes. Plus GE2015 was about Miliband/Sturgeon vs Competent Dave - that no longer applies, and whilst of course Labour is currently encumbered by Jezza, he will have shored up Labour's appeal to Labour-inclined voters who didn't come out in 2015. All my leftie-inclined friends (and spouse...!) love Jez to bits even if they didn't vote Labour in 2015.
No GE until Brexit sorted at the very least, I suspect...
Think about this scenario:
1. May becomes PM 2. She works over the summer to agree Heads of Terms. 3. That includes full single market membership with a couple of small changes on free movement. 4. Corbyn still there and Labour not split. 5. Draw up a manifesto which includes lowering net migration to less than 200,000 in the short term and to "sustainable levels" in the long term while pledging to prioritise highly skilled migrants. Pledge to serve Article 50 as soon as the election is won. 6. Go to the country with Labour hopelessly split, but Momentum unable to deselect sitting MPs. 7. May wins a landslide and ~100 seat majority.
If you were the PM, would you not be tempted by that.
I suspect the electorate would consider that as playing dirty and vote libdem and UKIP in large numbers if she did that.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
If there's no membership contest - I'll be very pissed off.
I stopped voting for New Labour - I don't want it again run by someone equally keen on snooping.
Yay - a triple bonus - sensible PM choice, IDS AND Plato totally pissed off. Result!
It might coincide with political convenience for May, but I think it would be absolutely right for her to seek a mandate with the British public in the autumn.
This does not look like a cake walk premiership for Mrs May. She will start out with 100+ of her MPs not wanting her there and another group within her supporters, watching her carefully for what she does on Brexit and this "drift to the centre". Added to that are the rabid spreaders of poison, which Boles and Soubry rank amongst the worst (rank being the smell involved). If those folk feature in the new Govt, Mrs May will hardly be encouraging unity.
If we do get a new PM in the next few days, one of the first things they should deal with are the strikes and associated problems on the Southern. It's causing real problems for many commuters, and would be a good sign of future intent.
Not going to happen. I find it amusing that the media are so dumb that they can't see what is going on there - GTR are doing the DfT's dirty work and it's going to happen in the new South Western franchise starting next year.
Yes there was some kind of policy announcement this morning by some junior minister affecting the lives of real people in this country.
This does not look like a cake walk premiership for Mrs May. She will start out with 100+ of her MPs not wanting her there and another group within her supporters, watching her carefully for what she does on Brexit and this "drift to the centre". Added to that are the rabid spreaders of poison, which Boles and Soubry rank amongst the worst (rank being the smell involved). If those folk feature in the new Govt, Mrs May will hardly be encouraging unity.
All the more reason for an election: 1. She has no working majority 2. Her party are divided 3. She has no mandate for Brexit, or from party members 4. Labour are even more divided
So call a September election, win a landslide, become the New Thatcher
Or don't, have a fractious never ending battle with Brexit/Boris fans demanding more faster that makes John Major's premiership look like a day at The Oval
There won't be an election. She'll "govern" for four years with no mandate from anybody. She'll lurch from one disaster to another. Brexit will be kicked into the long grass and the Tories will be thrown out in 2020.
Question is does the 17m who voted LEAVE and are about to have their referendum ignored switch to UKIP when Theresa eventually has to be dragged kicking and screaming to the polls in 2020?
@SamCoatesTimes: Victimhood always key to campaign. Some of her tribe think they have been victims for better part of three decades https://t.co/658gsskX2n
@jameskirkup: @SamCoatesTimes Oh yes. "The same pygmies that brought down Thatcher have destroyed Leadsom." Etc etc.
The grievance machine is up and running. MP on BBC blaming "media positioning"
Graham Brady hinting at some sort of contest ahead according to Darren on Sky
Natural justice seems to dictate the members should have a choice. I can see some disgruntled old colonels in the shires going to court if there is nothing for the members to vote on.
What a mess...
They didn't in 2003. Retired colonels ought to understand the need for discipline, particularly when your opponent is giving you the chance of a lifetime.
It's worth noting - as I did in the header - that ballot papers were not due to go out until mid-August. Part of the reason for such a long delay would have been for precisely this reason; that one candidate may prove unviable under closer scrutiny.
The possibility of a coronation rather than a contest is not a bug in the rules; it's a feature.
My thoughts: May will be coronated now, but will call an early election (she can backtrack on earlier statement by saying that she needs a mandate as not voted for by members). Not straight away, but before the end of the year - November time maybe.
She will use the time before November to present an 'ideal' post-brexit option to the public : EEA. She won't trigger Article 50 before the election though.
If she goes for EEA no special treatment, EU less inclined to react hostile to her (so will drop the 'no informal talks' stuff). Article 50 to be invoked after a simple negotiation for off-the-shelf Norway option.
Regardless of UKIP backlash, Labour will be in such a state that she will win a decent majority (no landslide though).
Conservatives can unite around EEA. I think internally they are already doing so.
@RobDotHutton: Steve Baker finds a new source of grievance, blaming May supporters for maneuvering against Leadsom. By allowing her to give interviews.
The irony is, of course, that Labour under a new leader could go into an election promising Remain, if they really wanted to make things interesting - roll the die, if you will. But Corbyn won't.
It might coincide with political convenience for May, but I think it would be absolutely right for her to seek a mandate with the British public in the autumn.
@SamCoatesTimes: Victimhood always key to campaign. Some of her tribe think they have been victims for better part of three decades https://t.co/658gsskX2n
@jameskirkup: @SamCoatesTimes Oh yes. "The same pygmies that brought down Thatcher have destroyed Leadsom." Etc etc.
The grievance machine is up and running. MP on BBC blaming "media positioning"
The MP on BBC who supported her says he doesn't blame the media but blames those who campaigned against her for the way she was portrayed. Well I never.
He also says that carrying on for another 8 weeks or whatever would lead to a more divided and ungovernable country and that Leadsome's minority support among MPs was a problem, yet wanted her to carry on and she would win.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
Really can't see an election any time soon.
We need certainty and purpose now to sort out Brexit. Not weeks of further uncertainty whilst we fight an election campaign.
How can anyone predict how UKIP will fare? They in effect gave the Tories a majority (against all expectations) by monstering Labour in the marginals the Tories retained/won. Can May be so sure a 2016 GE will repeat that feat, and not harm Tory hopes. Plus GE2015 was about Miliband/Sturgeon vs Competent Dave - that no longer applies, and whilst of course Labour is currently encumbered by Jezza, he will have shored up Labour's appeal to Labour-inclined voters who didn't come out in 2015. All my leftie-inclined friends (and spouse...!) love Jez to bits even if they didn't vote Labour in 2015.
No GE until Brexit sorted at the very least, I suspect...
Think about this scenario:
1. May becomes PM 2. She works over the summer to agree Heads of Terms. 3. That includes full single market membership with a couple of small changes on free movement. 4. Corbyn still there and Labour not split. 5. Draw up a manifesto which includes lowering net migration to less than 200,000 in the short term and to "sustainable levels" in the long term while pledging to prioritise highly skilled migrants. Pledge to serve Article 50 as soon as the election is won. 6. Go to the country with Labour hopelessly split, but Momentum unable to deselect sitting MPs. 7. May wins a landslide and ~100 seat majority.
If you were the PM, would you not be tempted by that.
I suspect the electorate would consider that as playing dirty and vote libdem and UKIP in large numbers if she did that.
The Lib Dems will be pledging to take us back in the EU warts and all (Euro, Schengen). UKIP will be pledging to take us out if the single market and crash the economy. Who knows what Labour will do, but with Corbyn in charge it won't matter. The Conservatives will be proposing to take us out of the EU, have some kind of concessions on free movement, running on a cebtrist ticket as outlined by Mrs May just now and on keeping us in the single market to secure the economy and jobs.
If backing the favourite isn’t a very exciting option, more value might be found in Ladbrokes market that Leadsom will withdraw from the race before the end of the month at 7/1
If backing the favourite isn’t a very exciting option, more value might be found in Ladbrokes market that Leadsom will withdraw from the race before the end of the month at 7/1
We shouldn't leap to conclusions (actually, what am I saying? Leap away!) regarding EEA.
There's plenty of fudge 'twixt cup and lip.
As others have pointed out, there are a lot of vetoes to be handled with the EEA route, never mind UK domestic politics. We're not going to let Slovenia stick their oar in here, or Schulz for that matter. Let's see what the grown up countries say first.
Amazing how every single Leaver involved in this sorry mess has fallen on stony ground. An idea without champions is probably a bad idea.
given 2/3 of tory MPs supported remain I suppose its no surprise the last woman standing is a remainer. Even as someone who doesn't vote Tory I'm disappointed there wont be a leadership run off.
Amazing how every single Leaver involved in this sorry mess has fallen on stony ground. An idea without champions is probably a bad idea.
given 2/3 of tory MPs supported remain I suppose its no surprise the last woman standing is a remainer. Even as someone who doesn't vote Tory I'm disappointed there wont be a leadership run off.
All the more reason why the obvious call for her is a general election. BTW I'm not arguing this for party political gain.
Because if May does what I think she'll do, Labour are fucking fucked.
Never underestimate the ruthlessness of the Tory party in government.
I'm sure the idea of having a new PM whilst various people in Labour are talking about legal actions re: their own leadership crisis must be attractive right now.
Comments
If she had started that way, she wouldn't be in this position
https://www.periscope.tv/SamCoatesTimes/1RDxlwzXVpkJL
Edit - and logic 'can't do it without MPs' support' would apply even more so to Gove.
IDS face a picture.....
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/752458673851658240
Letter to Graham Brady.
Well done.
And congratulations to our new PM, Theresa May. I wish her well. I think she will do well.
Labour - this is how you sort out leadership issues. The Tories are (the IDS saga aside) rather good at this.
Are you listening Jeremy?
It's called Fox News because it does.
The Italians also have several US aircraft.
I think!
Marquee Mark 7:51AM
I'm hoping that God might yet have a quiet word with Mother Superior - and gets her to stand down.
If He is a merciful God, it would spare us all two months more of this.
Labour on the other hand are still fighting the dogged Big John Owls-Danny65 tendency.
1. She has no working majority
2. Her party are divided
3. She has no mandate for Brexit, or from party members
4. Labour are even more divided
So call a September election, win a landslide, become the New Thatcher
Or don't, have a fractious never ending battle with Brexit/Boris fans demanding more faster that makes John Major's premiership look like a day at The Oval
1. May becomes PM
2. She works over the summer to agree Heads of Terms.
3. That includes full single market membership with a couple of small changes on free movement.
4. Corbyn still there and Labour not split.
5. Draw up a manifesto which includes lowering net migration to less than 200,000 in the short term and to "sustainable levels" in the long term while pledging to prioritise highly skilled migrants. Pledge to serve Article 50 as soon as the election is won.
6. Go to the country with Labour hopelessly split, but Momentum unable to deselect sitting MPs.
7. May wins a landslide and ~100 seat majority.
If you were the PM, would you not be tempted by that.
Leadership elections:
Tories: This is how you do it.
Labour: This is how you don't do it.
Your man Corbyn could learn from her.
I doubt he will.
A bit unfitting, but hey ho...
Best ignored.
Question is does the 17m who voted LEAVE and are about to have their referendum ignored switch to UKIP when Theresa eventually has to be dragged kicking and screaming to the polls in 2020?
@jameskirkup: @SamCoatesTimes Oh yes. "The same pygmies that brought down Thatcher have destroyed Leadsom." Etc etc.
The grievance machine is up and running. MP on BBC blaming "media positioning"
It's worth noting - as I did in the header - that ballot papers were not due to go out until mid-August. Part of the reason for such a long delay would have been for precisely this reason; that one candidate may prove unviable under closer scrutiny.
The possibility of a coronation rather than a contest is not a bug in the rules; it's a feature.
She will use the time before November to present an 'ideal' post-brexit option to the public : EEA. She won't trigger Article 50 before the election though.
If she goes for EEA no special treatment, EU less inclined to react hostile to her (so will drop the 'no informal talks' stuff). Article 50 to be invoked after a simple negotiation for off-the-shelf Norway option.
Regardless of UKIP backlash, Labour will be in such a state that she will win a decent majority (no landslide though).
Conservatives can unite around EEA. I think internally they are already doing so.
There is a perfectly good word to use. Crowned.
Labour on the other hand..
He also says that carrying on for another 8 weeks or whatever would lead to a more divided and ungovernable country and that Leadsome's minority support among MPs was a problem, yet wanted her to carry on and she would win.
True keepers of the flame and all that...
The Tories could score over 40% IMO.
UKIP could make leaps and bounds against Labour, and the Lib Dems, if Corbyn's still there, may make a rapid comeback.
Dangerous days for the reds.
Absolutely tremendous tipping, David.
There's plenty of fudge 'twixt cup and lip.
As others have pointed out, there are a lot of vetoes to be handled with the EEA route, never mind UK domestic politics. We're not going to let Slovenia stick their oar in here, or Schulz for that matter. Let's see what the grown up countries say first.
We still don't know what happened between Boris and Gove but we know there's obviously a lot more to it than we've been told...
Because if May does what I think she'll do, Labour are fucking fucked.
I'm sure the idea of having a new PM whilst various people in Labour are talking about legal actions re: their own leadership crisis must be attractive right now.
Tories on 45% in opinion polls this year, anyone?