might be a stupid question, but are the bets still on?? or do they become void if Leadsome pulls out?
I've laid the May/Leadsom forecast, if that was to become void it would be a bit of a bonus - but I suspect that betfair market will stand as May/Leadsom.
Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
I'm not a fan of political coronations, but surely May should become PM in the next few days.
Presumably the 1922 Committee will need a little time to confirm that everyone is happy with that, but, yes, she should be PM by tomorrow evening. Perhaps by this evening.
Very satisfactory, from the point of view of the Nabavi claret fund..
Theresa May must surely have had prior knowledge of Ledsom withdrawal before making her speech.
May putting the knife into Leadsom and her right wing supporters with her socialist policies.
The black arts side won.
Let that be a warning to all who challenge the Conservative establishment, especially the Labour party. Conservatives out to kill Labour like they killed Liberal Democrats.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
I think Leadsome means well but junior minister or a low-ranked cabinet post is about as high as she should rise. She just doesn't have "it" to be a high-flier in politics. This complaining about abuse - questioning a sexed up CV, non-release of tax forms and reporting comments she made in an interview are not abuse. She seems terribly thin skinned and I wonder how much she actually wanted to job in the first place.
If the Leavers had been able to unite behind Boris then we would be looking at a very different story.
Theresa May must surely have had prior knowledge of Ledsom withdrawal before making her speech.
May putting the knife into Leadsom and her right wing supporters with her socialist policies.
The black arts side won.
Let that be a warning to all who challenge the Conservative establishment, especially the Labour party. Conservatives out to kill Labour like they killed Liberal Democrats.
A mass switch to UKIP in the north and the Shires could see Lab and Con destroyed very shortly.
Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
I'm not a fan of political coronations, but surely May should become PM in the next few days.
Presumably the 1922 Committee will need a little time to confirm that everyone is happy with that, but, yes, she should be PM by tomorrow evening. Perhaps by this evening.
Very satisfactory, from the point of view of the Nabavi claret fund..
Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
Gove seems like the sort of man who has enough self regard to believe he could still win.
Also it depends if there is a strategic reason why a delay in getting a new PM is important. Is a delay useful in allowing negotiating lines to be drawn up and informally sounded out in Europe?
Exactly the above. I'm sure one reason for the leadership change was to give 3 months negotiating window....
3 months of Gove vs May would be great fun to watch...
Mr. Pioneers, that's plausible, but the timing of Article 50 may prevent it happening.
Mr. Evershed, it's remarkable to think there were serious questions being asked in 2007 about whether the Conservatives would survive if Brown called and won a snap election.
Leaps? On a graph with four decimal places? GTFO Bloomberg.
Mind you Sterling fell another cent in just two hours earlier this morning. Temporary blips are the new straws to clutch at.
It's not even a blip. Ordinarily, I let journalism and reportage wash over me. However, as I'm very engaged at the moment, its really highlighted how the media have a narrative and just twist, elide and cherrypick facts to suit themselves. They've always done it, of course.
Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
I'm not a fan of political coronations, but surely May should become PM in the next few days.
Presumably the 1922 Committee will need a little time to confirm that everyone is happy with that, but, yes, she should be PM by tomorrow evening. Perhaps by this evening.
Very satisfactory, from the point of view of the Nabavi claret fund..
Surely no other candidate will agree to go forward. They'd look ridiculous.
Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
I'm not a fan of political coronations, but surely May should become PM in the next few days.
Presumably the 1922 Committee will need a little time to confirm that everyone is happy with that, but, yes, she should be PM by tomorrow evening. Perhaps by this evening.
Very satisfactory, from the point of view of the Nabavi claret fund..
Surely no other candidate will agree to go forward. They'd look ridiculous.
Not least as they have acknowledged they are not the right man for the job. Boris's "my friends, I have concluded that person is not me" statement would come back to haunt him if he somehow forced himself onto the shortlist; didn't Gove say something similar on coming 3rd last week?
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
If there's no membership contest - I'll be very pissed off.
I stopped voting for New Labour - I don't want it again run by someone equally keen on snooping.
Since the PB post on next Chancellor betting,the site recommendation is Grayling who is still 8-1.My thoughts were that "Boring Phil" could be May's first choice,stability and all that.Hammond has been backed from 7-1 to 7-2 joint fav with Ms Leadsom.He's still the bet.Boring at this time is good and Phil could bore for England.
The 1922 Committee did their job - and one of the two candidates said no thanks. End of.
May becomes PM as soon as it's seemly for the handover to take place in conjunction with HM Queen diary. I would have thought the Conservatives would want to arrange the proceedings with some dignity.
Maybe someone could step out the shadows and scupper the establishment one last time?
I'm quite happy to be Theresa May's opponent.
Might be the route to finally to get that peerage.
You'd get into trouble:
"I know the contest should not be about shoes, but it's true that her taste in shoes is nowhere near as great as mine. I think the ability to pick really good shoes means I am better placed to see the country through the troubles it may face in the future."
Then Bev, once of this parish, comes through on the outside and beats both of you ...
I follow her on Twitter in the same way that well-to-do Londoners used to stroll down to Bedlam in the 18th century. Repulsive and fascinating all at the same time.
Judging by May's rhetoric I'd bet on a GE this year.
May has said no general election.
She could use the line that she was only voted for by MPs and therefore wants a mandate from the public. With Labour in the state it's in there really isn't a better time for her.
Judging by May's rhetoric I'd bet on a GE this year.
May has said no general election.
She could use the line that she was only voted for by MPs and therefore wants a mandate from the public. With Labour in the state it's in there really isn't a better time for her.
Only if she does not want to be trusted on her promises....
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
Really can't see an election any time soon.
We need certainty and purpose now to sort out Brexit. Not weeks of further uncertainty whilst we fight an election campaign.
How can anyone predict how UKIP will fare? They in effect gave the Tories a majority (against all expectations) by monstering Labour in the marginals the Tories retained/won. Can May be so sure a 2016 GE will repeat that feat, and not harm Tory hopes. Plus GE2015 was about Miliband/Sturgeon vs Competent Dave - that no longer applies, and whilst of course Labour is currently encumbered by Jezza, he will have shored up Labour's appeal to Labour-inclined voters who didn't come out in 2015. All my leftie-inclined friends (and spouse...!) love Jez to bits even if they didn't vote Labour in 2015.
No GE until Brexit sorted at the very least, I suspect...
I really don't think the public mood is for another General Election right now, things need time to calm down. There'll be one early next year I guess.
Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
I'm not a fan of political coronations, but surely May should become PM in the next few days.
Presumably the 1922 Committee will need a little time to confirm that everyone is happy with that, but, yes, she should be PM by tomorrow evening. Perhaps by this evening.
Very satisfactory, from the point of view of the Nabavi claret fund..
It'd be the Party Board rather than the 1922 - their role in the process is finished now.
Three options:
1. Coronation and be done with it. 2. Ratification single-name ballot of members (was proposed in 2003 before being dismissed). 3. New run-off with a lucky loser (Mike Smithson just backed Gove at 600/1 on this basis, which holds considerable value albeit still very much an outside option).
My feeling is that the mood in the party, and particularly at the top end, is to come together and unite around a new leader. Not only will it be good for government to have that certainty but it contrasts favourably with Labour.
Judging by May's rhetoric I'd bet on a GE this year.
May has said no general election.
She could use the line that she was only voted for by MPs and therefore wants a mandate from the public. With Labour in the state it's in there really isn't a better time for her.
Depends on what Labour do. If Corbyn is kept off the ballot, all bets are off.
May could then be facing Yvette/Chuka/Jarvis, which she won't fancy anything like as much.
I follow her on Twitter in the same way that well-to-do Londoners used to stroll down to Bedlam in the 18th century. Repulsive and fascinating all at the same time.
She's a silly sausage, but I like the banner on her twitter page: "Pedro 2016!"
If we do get a new PM in the next few days, one of the first things they should deal with are the strikes and associated problems on the Southern. It's causing real problems for many commuters, and would be a good sign of future intent.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
Looks about right, but I'd go for a bigger majority than that. Labour will be wiped out in Scotland, remember.
1. Leadsom pulls out 2. May becomes PM straight away 3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership 4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other 4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart 5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
Really can't see an election any time soon.
We need certainty and purpose now to sort out Brexit. Not weeks of further uncertainty whilst we fight an election campaign.
How can anyone predict how UKIP will fare? They in effect gave the Tories a majority (against all expectations) by monstering Labour in the marginals the Tories retained/won. Can May be so sure a 2016 GE will repeat that feat, and not harm Tory hopes. Plus GE2015 was about Miliband/Sturgeon vs Competent Dave - that no longer applies, and whilst of course Labour is currently encumbered by Jezza, he will have shored up Labour's appeal to Labour-inclined voters who didn't come out in 2015. All my leftie-inclined friends (and spouse...!) love Jez to bits even if they didn't vote Labour in 2015.
No GE until Brexit sorted at the very least, I suspect...
Sorting out Brexit (or anything else) is going to be a nightmare with a majority of 12 though. May can win a landslide if she goes to the country soon and I think voters would approve of her seeking her own mandate.
Graham Brady hinting at some sort of contest ahead according to Darren on Sky
Natural justice seems to dictate the members should have a choice. I can see some disgruntled old colonels in the shires going to court if there is nothing for the members to vote on.
"Boeing will make the UK its European base for training, maintenance and repair for its defence aircraft."
We should have gone with the P-8 years ago.
Question: does any European country other than the UK operate Boeing defence aircraft? The exception I can think of is Italy which has the maintenance contract on its 767 airtankers.
This does not look like a cake walk premiership for Mrs May. She will start out with 100+ of her MPs not wanting her there and another group within her supporters, watching her carefully for what she does on Brexit and this "drift to the centre". Added to that are the rabid spreaders of poison, which Boles and Soubry rank amongst the worst (rank being the smell involved). If those folk feature in the new Govt, Mrs May will hardly be encouraging unity.
If we do get a new PM in the next few days, one of the first things they should deal with are the strikes and associated problems on the Southern. It's causing real problems for many commuters, and would be a good sign of future intent.
Not going to happen. I find it amusing that the media are so dumb that they can't see what is going on there - GTR are doing the DfT's dirty work and it's going to happen in the new South Western franchise starting next year.
I can appreciate members may not be happy, but a full re-run is ridiculous and the only alternative is sticking Gove on the ballot, and he has.. a sixth of blue MPs on his side?
Comments
Mind you if...
Very satisfactory, from the point of view of the Nabavi claret fund..
May putting the knife into Leadsom and her right wing supporters with her socialist policies.
The black arts side won.
Let that be a warning to all who challenge the Conservative establishment, especially the Labour party. Conservatives out to kill Labour like they killed Liberal Democrats.
2. May becomes PM straight away
3. May backed Remain. Hasn't even been endorsed by her membership
4. Labour are divided and attacking each other. The Tories are also divided but about to stop attacking each other
4. May makes a statement about needing a mandate. Calls an early election. Tory party pull together. Labour pull apart
5. May becomes Thatcher with another 144 majority
If the Leavers had been able to unite behind Boris then we would be looking at a very different story.
You called this right.
I called it wrongly.
May: I require a mandate - not from the Conservative membership. But from you, the British public.
Can see it in her speech "coming soon"
3 months of Gove vs May would be great fun to watch...
A dangerous assumption, Scrapheap.
Mr. Evershed, it's remarkable to think there were serious questions being asked in 2007 about whether the Conservatives would survive if Brown called and won a snap election.
Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1)
July 11, 2016
Journalists fleeing the Angela Eagle launch event to get to Leadsom statement - a brutal metaphor for how far they've got to go
I stopped voting for New Labour - I don't want it again run by someone equally keen on snooping.
She came 4th in the Deputy Leadership last year - she has no appeal. And will get slaughtered by Momentum.
May becomes PM as soon as it's seemly for the handover to take place in conjunction with HM Queen diary. I would have thought the Conservatives would want to arrange the proceedings with some dignity.
That's about all I could take before switching over.
"I know the contest should not be about shoes, but it's true that her taste in shoes is nowhere near as great as mine. I think the ability to pick really good shoes means I am better placed to see the country through the troubles it may face in the future."
Then Bev, once of this parish, comes through on the outside and beats both of you ...
Labour really can't catch a break.
Boeing creates 2,000 new jobs in the UK:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36763212
"Boeing will make the UK its European base for training, maintenance and repair for its defence aircraft."
We should have gone with the P-8 years ago.
And if she ever does, she will crash.
Now the BBC are cutting away from her
TBF that's longer than their campaign claims lasted...
We need certainty and purpose now to sort out Brexit. Not weeks of further uncertainty whilst we fight an election campaign.
How can anyone predict how UKIP will fare? They in effect gave the Tories a majority (against all expectations) by monstering Labour in the marginals the Tories retained/won. Can May be so sure a 2016 GE will repeat that feat, and not harm Tory hopes. Plus GE2015 was about Miliband/Sturgeon vs Competent Dave - that no longer applies, and whilst of course Labour is currently encumbered by Jezza, he will have shored up Labour's appeal to Labour-inclined voters who didn't come out in 2015. All my leftie-inclined friends (and spouse...!) love Jez to bits even if they didn't vote Labour in 2015.
No GE until Brexit sorted at the very least, I suspect...
He won't do it, I don't think.
Equals minimal change on Brexit. Continues with free movement of EU citizens and the EU regulations of the single market.
Three options:
1. Coronation and be done with it.
2. Ratification single-name ballot of members (was proposed in 2003 before being dismissed).
3. New run-off with a lucky loser (Mike Smithson just backed Gove at 600/1 on this basis, which holds considerable value albeit still very much an outside option).
My feeling is that the mood in the party, and particularly at the top end, is to come together and unite around a new leader. Not only will it be good for government to have that certainty but it contrasts favourably with Labour.
Getting the noms would be the trickiest bit for him if the NEC stitch up Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/martha_gill/status/752458974587457536
May could then be facing Yvette/Chuka/Jarvis, which she won't fancy anything like as much.
No, its just a sign that Leave are a bunch of quitters who didn't think they would win and are now terrified of the consequences of trying to deliver.
With his running mate being Napoleon Dynamite.
There were 5 candidates at close of nominations.
Ron?
obviously it is within the powers that be to coronate Theresa. The question is whether they will.
She'll regret it if she delays imo.
What a mess...
"Morning everyone"
Top marks to her
If Leadsom withdraws, it should be May's.
I can appreciate members may not be happy, but a full re-run is ridiculous and the only alternative is sticking Gove on the ballot, and he has.. a sixth of blue MPs on his side?