politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for May ahead of the 2nd round of MP voting –
Comments
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Bollocks. That's my thread for Sunday.MaxPB said:
I had a conversation with someone yesterday evening, he asked whether I think Dave regrets hiring Sir Lynton Crosby for the election and wiping out the Lib Dems. If we hadn't won a majority he would very likely still be PM.TheScreamingEagles said:
God no. This is an article in praise of the Lib Dems.logical_song said:
Is that why TSE wants them destroyed?Pulpstar said:
Tried to stop Brexit, the Iraq war and joined a coalition that provided excellent government from 2010-2015 ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, what have the Lib Dems done?
Guilty as charged !0 -
Scott_P said:
IMF says £ still overvalued.
£ needed to fall to help our export competitiveness and close the trade gap.
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Is that danger money for having to go to France?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm loving Brexit, got a pay rise out of it already.Indigo said:
Possibly evidence. You are starting to sound like a sore loser.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are we listening to experts now?TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
Our exports are mainly price inelastic though...David_Evershed said:Scott_P said:
IMF says £ still overvalued.
£ needed to fall to help our export competitiveness and close the trade gap.0 -
Taking into account the 13% devaluation on Sterling puts the FTSE 100 down about 8%.felix said:
Can you put them up when they take into effect the devaluation in sterling?TCPoliticalBetting said:More terrible facts for Project Fear
Samuel Coates Retweeted
The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
Stocks, past month.
UK: +4.4%
Russia: -2.7%
Poland: -4.6%
Netherlands: -5%
France: -7.4%
Germany: -8%
Spain: -10%
Italy: -13%
Greece: -19%0 -
People whose livelihood depend on housing sales talk up housing sales. I'm shocked.logical_song said:
"While the Brexit result caused some to pull out of transactions and a number of purchasers’ chains to collapse, “the majority” of deals agreed before the referendum are going through, conveyancers say."TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
I know this is dull (it's so much more fun to take an extreme position) but we need to strike a mature balance between "'Everything's great!" and "It's the End of Days".
If I were a Remainer, hearing Leadsom dismiss sterling movements and warbling about 'prosperity not austerity' I'd be weeping tears of frustration, in the same way that Remainers shrieking about depressions and mass unemployment piss me off.
Leave is often mocked for not listening to experts, but I find Remainers equally guilty. Before the referendum there were fourteen publically available economic forecasts that covered all the common scenarios for Brexit (WTO, EEA, FTA+). None of them forecast Armageddon.
The only publicly available summary I've seen post referendum was from S&P. It called Brexit as a drag of 2.2% by 2018. That is, if you assume trend growth of around 2.2% p.a. we're going to grow by 4.4% rather than 6.6%. The IMF report (issued on the 18th June) forecast a technical recession of about -.8% in 2017, and a growth of around 4% to 2018 (iirc).
Our risk is that Brexit unwinds something else, like a rock caroming down a hillside. There are the Italian banks. Deutsche Bank. The Chinese. Then we could be in trouble.0 -
There is a desire, not just among Remoaners, but among certain european players to portray the UK as in some kind of chaos.
Well, they have to, don't they?
If they tell the truth, the euro-plebs might get a bit uppity as well. And that would never do for the project.0 -
Yup. Turns out Brexit is great for working class Northerners like me.Lennon said:
Is that danger money for having to go to France?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm loving Brexit, got a pay rise out of it already.Indigo said:
Possibly evidence. You are starting to sound like a sore loser.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are we listening to experts now?TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
Come now @MaxPB that's just talking down Britain to the end of days.MaxPB said:
Taking into account the 13% devaluation on Sterling puts the FTSE 100 down about 8%.felix said:
Can you put them up when they take into effect the devaluation in sterling?TCPoliticalBetting said:More terrible facts for Project Fear
Samuel Coates Retweeted
The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
Stocks, past month.
UK: +4.4%
Russia: -2.7%
Poland: -4.6%
Netherlands: -5%
France: -7.4%
Germany: -8%
Spain: -10%
Italy: -13%
Greece: -19%0 -
For Jezza, the true faith people can call themselves 'The Labour Party', the Blairites and soft-left can be the 'The Tory Party', the Conservatives can be "The Nazi Party", and Ukip can be "The Untouchable Racist Scum Party.'
As for the LDs? 'The Pinko Trash Party.'0 -
There will be some level of import substitution though and many of our exports are finished manufactured goods which are relatively elastic. Import substitution is also important in in onshoring supply chains.Pulpstar said:
Our exports are mainly price inelastic though...David_Evershed said:Scott_P said:
IMF says £ still overvalued.
£ needed to fall to help our export competitiveness and close the trade gap.0 -
@GdnPolitics: Andrea Leadsom speech verdict: buy shares in Michael Gove https://t.co/TJF6LAwVUp0
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Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
chestnut said:
There is a desire, not just among Remoaners, but among certain european players to portray the UK as in some kind of chaos.
Well, they have to, don't they?
If they tell the truth, the euro-plebs might get a bit uppity as well. And that would never do for the project.
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If we are going to do that we should also take account of the devaluations of the other currencies. The Euro has dropped 3% or so against the USD in the same time frame.MaxPB said:
Taking into account the 13% devaluation on Sterling puts the FTSE 100 down about 8%.felix said:
Can you put them up when they take into effect the devaluation in sterling?TCPoliticalBetting said:More terrible facts for Project Fear
Samuel Coates Retweeted
The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
Stocks, past month.
UK: +4.4%
Russia: -2.7%
Poland: -4.6%
Netherlands: -5%
France: -7.4%
Germany: -8%
Spain: -10%
Italy: -13%
Greece: -19%0 -
@PickardJE: Leadsom ally: "Apparently we might have breached the law by holding an illegal protest in Parliament Square. Shouldn't be a problem though."0
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From the same article:logical_song said:
"While the Brexit result caused some to pull out of transactions and a number of purchasers’ chains to collapse, “the majority” of deals agreed before the referendum are going through, conveyancers say."TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM136925
“Only two out of the six hundred sales that we’re currently processing have fallen apart. That’s lower than we would expect usually.”
As I posted last night a bungalow up the road from me sold yesterday, less than a week after it was put on the market and for only just under the original asking price of £500k. Not much sign of a slump in the property market around here.
As I also posted last night I think that is a bad thing and we need a severe correction in housing prices to bring them back into line with long term trends and peoples earnings.0 -
Well the facts are the facts. I don't like the fall in the stock market much since I took options last year. The company share price isn't looking too hot at the moment!Pulpstar said:
Come now @MaxPB that's just talking down Britain to the end of days.MaxPB said:
Taking into account the 13% devaluation on Sterling puts the FTSE 100 down about 8%.felix said:
Can you put them up when they take into effect the devaluation in sterling?TCPoliticalBetting said:More terrible facts for Project Fear
Samuel Coates Retweeted
The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
Stocks, past month.
UK: +4.4%
Russia: -2.7%
Poland: -4.6%
Netherlands: -5%
France: -7.4%
Germany: -8%
Spain: -10%
Italy: -13%
Greece: -19%0 -
Delendum est, if you regard LD as a singular thing. If you pluralise them you have to give them gender - a sensitive area for LDs. delendi sunt if you think they are predominantly male (as they are), delendae sunt for feminine, delenda sunt for neuter (which they also are, in a sense).TheScreamingEagles said:For my fellow experts in Latin, the classics, and Morris Dancer, is 'Liberal Democrat delenda est' the correct term?
Experts are fine for diagnosis, less so for prognosis.0 -
Dr. Spyn, that's dereliction of duty from Hammond.
In unrelated news, the PLP are doing their damnedest to ensure my wolves, sheep and high students analogy of the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems remains accurate.0 -
Best quote of the campaign:-
"Mr Boles added that Mr Gove would be prepared to spend “two months taking a good thrashing from Theresa if that’s what it takes”.0 -
Yes we should. Though the DAX is slightly less foreign than the FTSE or CAC.Indigo said:
If we are going to do that we should also take account of the devaluations of the other currencies. The Euro has dropped 3% or so against the USD in the same time frame.MaxPB said:
Taking into account the 13% devaluation on Sterling puts the FTSE 100 down about 8%.felix said:
Can you put them up when they take into effect the devaluation in sterling?TCPoliticalBetting said:More terrible facts for Project Fear
Samuel Coates Retweeted
The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
Stocks, past month.
UK: +4.4%
Russia: -2.7%
Poland: -4.6%
Netherlands: -5%
France: -7.4%
Germany: -8%
Spain: -10%
Italy: -13%
Greece: -19%0 -
Thank you.Ishmael_X said:
Delendum est, if you regard LD as a singular thing. If you pluralise them you have to give them gender - a sensitive area for LDs. delendi sunt if you think they are predominantly male (as they are), delendae sunt for feminine, delenda sunt for neuter (which they also are, in a sense).TheScreamingEagles said:For my fellow experts in Latin, the classics, and Morris Dancer, is 'Liberal Democrat delenda est' the correct term?
Experts are fine for diagnosis, less so for prognosis.0 -
In Boris, Gove assailed someone who was almost supernaturally assailable, an inverse Achilles protected only on one heel. Gove's knife would have simply bounced off almost any other candidate in the history of history.Indigo said:
Why not. Ruthlessness is a valuable attribute in a national leader.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I am not sure a "will do someone in" PM is what we need.TGOHF said:Cons should go for Gove - there are 4 years until an election and the opposition is a rabble.
The country needs a "will do" PM with vision who is prepared to be radical - not some dreary technocrat manager or a Kipper with a fake CV.
If that counts to you as ruthlessness, I don't quite see it. Gove is so not some Putin character, fighting his enemies in the same way as he fights bears half naked in the Volga.0 -
And as I wrote my last post, a very timely Tweet.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/750991621777416193/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
This would be the -0.8% one year technical recession that is forecast before returning to growth ? Remind me what happened to GDP/Capita under Gordon Brown's premiership again ?OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
Mr. Eagles, has the price of lime-green trainers and salmon pink striped shirts declined?
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Between TC and Plato it's very difficult to choose - you can imagine them on the Titanic telling people not to panic...glug..glug...glug..OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
Sounds about right.Indigo said:
They were concerned that if they gamed and planned it in detail they might find that the world was actually not going to end, and that after some initial bumps it would be completely manageable... if that leaked out it would be curtains for Project Bollocks, so they threw away responsible national contingency planning for short terms political reasons.dr_spyn said:
Risk of Brexit was there, so Hammond ignores it? Though he also claims that there was a risk that any study would have been leaked.
I would have thought that HMG would have gamed or discussed implications of Brexit occuring, but then planning for an end game does seem rather out of fashion since 2003.0 -
Just think, this time last week Boris was the favourite to be the next Prime Minister.
#AWeekIsALongTimeInPoliticsInnit0 -
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Leadsom is way warmer than May.midwinter said:
She was poor in the second debate too. She was ineffectual and cold which isn't a great combination.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She didn't today. Just walked off with no questions. Very poorManWithThePlan said:
No. Because she knows her stuff when challenged and has excellent communication skills. She can connect with the public very effectively.eek said:
Because she is New and Shiny. Neither of which are a reason to vote for her...ToryJim said:
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.MaxPB said:
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.ToryJim said:
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by XmasMaxPB said:
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.ToryJim said:I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
May is old and tired, which is probably why she made the mistake of saying she woud use EU residents in the UK as a negotiating ploy and not guarantee their continued residence in the UK.
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I'm not expecting either Sunlit Uplands, or the Great Depression over the next few years.HurstLlama said:
From the same article:logical_song said:
"While the Brexit result caused some to pull out of transactions and a number of purchasers’ chains to collapse, “the majority” of deals agreed before the referendum are going through, conveyancers say."TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM136925
“Only two out of the six hundred sales that we’re currently processing have fallen apart. That’s lower than we would expect usually.”
As I posted last night a bungalow up the road from me sold yesterday, less than a week after it was put on the market and for only just under the original asking price of £500k. Not much sign of a slump in the property market around here.
As I also posted last night I think that is a bad thing and we need a severe correction in housing prices to bring them back into line with long term trends and peoples earnings.0 -
"People who put themselves forward as a future prime minister normally have clear ideas of what they want to do. Leadsom had an opportunity to reveal her own ideas today, but the cupboard seemed empty.Scott_P said:@GdnPolitics: Andrea Leadsom speech verdict: buy shares in Michael Gove https://t.co/TJF6LAwVUp
It is not just me saying this. This is from ITV’s Chris Ship."
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
That was *not* as billed a 'major speech on the economy' by @andrealeadsom. More a series of optimistic hopes and soundbites0 -
I see the EC has decided, with impeccable timing, to begin the process of sanctioning Spain and Portugal for breaching EU fiscal rules. Add that to Renzi's comments yesterday and I think we're seeing signs that the PIGS are getting restive.0
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Anthony Eden called an immediate election on his succession 18 months before one was due (before the 4-years tendency became established) and increased the Tory majority from 17 to 60.JackW said:
Since WWII none of the six Prime Ministers who have succeeded in term have opted for a General Election.ManWithThePlan said:If there is no members vote, you need a general election. She has to be elected beyond the MPs in some fashion.
The Conservatives had a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum and abide by the result. There is no requirement for PM May to go to the country.
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Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?0 -
Regardless of the result the failure to do any sort of contingency planning is/was mind bogglingly irresponsible.HurstLlama said:
Sounds about right.Indigo said:
They were concerned that if they gamed and planned it in detail they might find that the world was actually not going to end, and that after some initial bumps it would be completely manageable... if that leaked out it would be curtains for Project Bollocks, so they threw away responsible national contingency planning for short terms political reasons.dr_spyn said:
Risk of Brexit was there, so Hammond ignores it? Though he also claims that there was a risk that any study would have been leaked.
I would have thought that HMG would have gamed or discussed implications of Brexit occuring, but then planning for an end game does seem rather out of fashion since 2003.0 -
Leak it?Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?0 -
Relax, Mr Max. The Stock market always bumps up and down. In the early seventies the main FT index went down to 150. Individual companies may go bust but the market as a whole will always do OK, if you hang on.MaxPB said:
Well the facts are the facts. I don't like the fall in the stock market much since I took options last year. The company share price isn't looking too hot at the moment!Pulpstar said:
Come now @MaxPB that's just talking down Britain to the end of days.MaxPB said:
Taking into account the 13% devaluation on Sterling puts the FTSE 100 down about 8%.felix said:
Can you put them up when they take into effect the devaluation in sterling?TCPoliticalBetting said:More terrible facts for Project Fear
Samuel Coates Retweeted
The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
Stocks, past month.
UK: +4.4%
Russia: -2.7%
Poland: -4.6%
Netherlands: -5%
France: -7.4%
Germany: -8%
Spain: -10%
Italy: -13%
Greece: -19%0 -
Looks like some MPs are having second thoughtslogical_song said:"People who put themselves forward as a future prime minister normally have clear ideas of what they want to do. Leadsom had an opportunity to reveal her own ideas today, but the cupboard seemed empty.
It is not just me saying this. This is from ITV’s Chris Ship."
Chris Ship ✔ @chrisshipitv
That was *not* as billed a 'major speech on the economy' by @andrealeadsom. More a series of optimistic hopes and soundbites
@RuthDavidsonMSP: .@jimwaterson is that Theresa Villiers *actually* clutching her pearls with discomfort at 4 secs from end? I thought that was just a saying.0 -
The Labour party is no longer labour
(UKIP is the party for labour)
The Conservative party is no longer conservative
(with radical policies) and
The Liberal Democrat party is no longer liberal
(supporting protectionist EU).0 -
Finish 2nd and run.Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?0 -
@BuzzFeedUKPol: Andrea Leadsom’s charity is bankrolled by her offshore banker brother-in-law
https://t.co/73y5RyO6iN https://t.co/F3zTFwf0Nv0 -
HA!
@charlotteahenry: This coup is wrong at a time when negotiations are still ongoing?! https://t.co/CxtVyEF74e0 -
I think you were too kind on the LIberal Democrats, they are the party of European Nationalism.David_Evershed said:The Labour party is no longer labour
(UKIP is the party for labour)
The Conservative party is no longer conservative
(with radical policies) and
The Liberal Democrat party is no longer liberal
(supporting protectionist EU).0 -
Yep. After the lesson of the May 15 GE, some of us were ready this time, spreadsheets open, ready to pounce after the two or three results.Pulpstar said:
Ah shame that, at about 2 am Brexit was possibly the biggest 4-5 shot or so there had ever been in the history of betting.blackburn63 said:
Not a penny as I stated at the time, I couldn't be objective.Pulpstar said:
How much did you pile on to Brexit for ?blackburn63 said:
Alastair Meeks, a 48-year-old lawyer, is going with the flow; he plans to put several thousand pounds on Britain staying in the EU. "I got into gambling through politics, rather than into politics through gambling," he said. "I will increase my commitments as we get closer (to the vote)."Pulpstar said:
Hah ! If only they knew...Pauly said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-betting-idUSKCN0YF16BAlastairMeeks said:@rottenborough There is a strand of opinion on pb that gets upset when it is suggested that Leavers are batshit mental. Andrea Leadsom being a serious contender in this leadership election race is all the proof that is needed of the truth of that suggestion.
This article demonstrates your wisdom perfectly:
"Alastair Meeks, a 48-year-old lawyer, is going with the flow; he plans to put several thousand pounds on Britain staying in the EU."
It was all those silly people that cost him.
Love the posed photo of a self satisfied individual sat in a bookies telling us how he'd invested thousands. And now we're all batshit crazy.
It goes on in bookies every afternoon, blokes losing money on short favourites then throwing betting slips around and swearing.
I've put all my Brexit winnings on Theresa at an average Betfair price of 1.91 and hope to nearly double my winnings. Smug or what?0 -
OK. GDP per capita fell due to the global financial meltdown but was still higher than that inherited from the Conservatives, and then it rose again until Osborne flatlined the economy.Indigo said:
This would be the -0.8% one year technical recession that is forecast before returning to growth ? Remind me what happened to GDP/Capita under Gordon Brown's premiership again ?OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
Say 2nd, but then not withdraw? ("On reflection, it is right to give the members the choice etc. etc.")Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?0 -
I've said on here - she's toxicScott_P said:@BuzzFeedUKPol: Andrea Leadsom’s charity is bankrolled by her offshore banker brother-in-law
https://t.co/73y5RyO6iN https://t.co/F3zTFwf0Nv0 -
Buzzfeed have piece on interesting financial arrangements of Andrea Leadsom's charity.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/andrea-leadsoms-charity-is-bankrolled-by-her-offshore-banker?utm_term=.tf5Xrje5La#.kgZw78MAEZ
Pure coincidence that it has just been released.
Perhaps a can of worms has been spilt.0 -
It's hard to do the IFS conclusions justice briefly. They concluded that it would cost the UK between £20-40 billion by 2019 (they plumped for the NIESR models). That means one-two years more 'austerity'. Basically, yes we can do it, but on a purely economic basis, it's not worth it.HurstLlama said:
Sounds about right.Indigo said:
They were concerned that if they gamed and planned it in detail they might find that the world was actually not going to end, and that after some initial bumps it would be completely manageable... if that leaked out it would be curtains for Project Bollocks, so they threw away responsible national contingency planning for short terms political reasons.dr_spyn said:
Risk of Brexit was there, so Hammond ignores it? Though he also claims that there was a risk that any study would have been leaked.
I would have thought that HMG would have gamed or discussed implications of Brexit occuring, but then planning for an end game does seem rather out of fashion since 2003.
Which is fair enough. Both Leave campaigns saw it was funded by a pro-Europe group, screamed in anger and threw the baby out with the bathwater.0 -
I'm sure that it isn't.Slackbladder said:
I'm not sure the labour party is the labour party anymore.....PlatoSaid said:Holy Moly
Momentum
INCREDIBLE NEWS. 200,000 people have joined @UKLabour in 10 days. Join the movement to say #CorbynStays https://t.co/aqDGqwZCL00 -
GDP/capita has been flat since 2007. We just make ourselves look good by importing more people.DecrepitJohnL said:
OK. GDP per capita fell due to the global financial meltdown but was still higher than that inherited from the Conservatives, and then it rose again until Osborne flatlined the economy.Indigo said:
This would be the -0.8% one year technical recession that is forecast before returning to growth ? Remind me what happened to GDP/Capita under Gordon Brown's premiership again ?OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
Mr. P, heard that on Sky. Did make me think back to Milibot's rinse and repeat interview.0
-
One mans older is another mans more experienced. Either way Leadsom and her supporters are a branch of politicians the Tory party would, in many cases, be well rid of. Electorally at least they are a nightmare waiting to happen.David_Evershed said:
Leadsom is way warmer than May.midwinter said:
She was poor in the second debate too. She was ineffectual and cold which isn't a great combination.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She didn't today. Just walked off with no questions. Very poorManWithThePlan said:
No. Because she knows her stuff when challenged and has excellent communication skills. She can connect with the public very effectively.eek said:
Because she is New and Shiny. Neither of which are a reason to vote for her...ToryJim said:
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.MaxPB said:
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.ToryJim said:
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by XmasMaxPB said:
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.ToryJim said:I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
May is old and tired, which is probably why she made the mistake of saying she woud use EU residents in the UK as a negotiating ploy and not guarantee their continued residence in the UK.0 -
Isn't it something to behold the destruction of Andrea Leadsom's case for leader by both pro- and anti-Tory media? And by her colleagues, both former and current.
The contrast with Corbyn's election - in which practically no-one on the Labour side actually took him to task for his former views; any action was restricted to worrying about how they might be presented - is once again absolutely glaring.0 -
Finish 2nd, withdraw, and then in doing so issuing the proviso that if Article 50 is not invoked within 6 months she will either lead or support another's challenge to May's leadership.Lennon said:
Say 2nd, but then not withdraw? ("On reflection, it is right to give the members the choice etc. etc.")Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?0 -
And we make Europe look good (better than terrible, at least) by allowing them to export their (potential) unemployment.John_M said:
GDP/capita has been flat since 2007. We just make ourselves look good by importing more people.DecrepitJohnL said:
OK. GDP per capita fell due to the global financial meltdown but was still higher than that inherited from the Conservatives, and then it rose again until Osborne flatlined the economy.Indigo said:
This would be the -0.8% one year technical recession that is forecast before returning to growth ? Remind me what happened to GDP/Capita under Gordon Brown's premiership again ?OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM1369250 -
And this time last month it was beyond the pale to question the financial arrangements of the PM's family.TheScreamingEagles said:Just think, this time last week Boris was the favourite to be the next Prime Minister.
#AWeekIsALongTimeInPoliticsInnit0 -
I agree, but that was the decision of Cameron and Osborne. As usual they let short term political considerations trump responsible government.Pulpstar said:
Regardless of the result the failure to do any sort of contingency planning is/was mind bogglingly irresponsible.HurstLlama said:
Sounds about right.Indigo said:
They were concerned that if they gamed and planned it in detail they might find that the world was actually not going to end, and that after some initial bumps it would be completely manageable... if that leaked out it would be curtains for Project Bollocks, so they threw away responsible national contingency planning for short terms political reasons.dr_spyn said:
Risk of Brexit was there, so Hammond ignores it? Though he also claims that there was a risk that any study would have been leaked.
I would have thought that HMG would have gamed or discussed implications of Brexit occuring, but then planning for an end game does seem rather out of fashion since 2003.
Yesterday Blair and co got a kicking for failing to plan for what happened after they toppled Saddam, and rightly so. Cameron also had no plan for what would happen in Libya after he helped to topple the government their after his unnecessary war. What stopped him learning the lessons from Iraq?
Why some think that Cameron was a good PM is quite beyond me.0 -
Indeed. We're a ruthless bunch of bastards and proud.Tissue_Price said:Isn't it something to behold the destruction of Andrea Leadsom's case for leader by both pro- and anti-Tory media? And by her colleagues, both former and current.
The contrast with Corbyn's election - in which practically no-one on the Labour side actually took him to task for his former views; any action was restricted to worrying about how they might be presented - is once again absolutely glaring.0 -
Amidst all the anti-Leadsom hysteria it is worth pointing out some May backers have always viewed a recovering Gove as the more dangerous opponent over a long members campaign. Andrea will either prosper or crash under the spotlight. You takes your choices.0
-
I see that, post-Brexit, Tata Steel has had a rethink and decided to maintain its British investments.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-367307590 -
Radical thinking sometimes trumps conventional thinking eg Margaret Thatcher.midwinter said:
One mans older is another mans more experienced. Either way Leadsom and her supporters are a branch of politicians the Tory party would, in many cases, be well rid of. Electorally at least they are a nightmare waiting to happen.David_Evershed said:
Leadsom is way warmer than May.midwinter said:
She was poor in the second debate too. She was ineffectual and cold which isn't a great combination.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She didn't today. Just walked off with no questions. Very poorManWithThePlan said:
No. Because she knows her stuff when challenged and has excellent communication skills. She can connect with the public very effectively.eek said:
Because she is New and Shiny. Neither of which are a reason to vote for her...ToryJim said:
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.MaxPB said:
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.ToryJim said:
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by XmasMaxPB said:
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.ToryJim said:I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
May is old and tired, which is probably why she made the mistake of saying she woud use EU residents in the UK as a negotiating ploy and not guarantee their continued residence in the UK.
Now is the time to think radically and act conservatively.
Vote Leadsom.0 -
It's Northern Ireland for her if she does thatLennon said:
Say 2nd, but then not withdraw? ("On reflection, it is right to give the members the choice etc. etc.")Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?
0 -
LOLScott_P said:@BuzzFeedUKPol: Andrea Leadsom’s charity is bankrolled by her offshore banker brother-in-law
https://t.co/73y5RyO6iN https://t.co/F3zTFwf0Nv
"Nonetheless, they decided to make a very big launch event, that I could only describe as one third professional conference, one third stately home wedding and one third party political broadcast for the blue party.”
0 -
Negotiate a better deal. If she can't do that, well, then....Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?0 -
@MSmithsonPB: Andrea Leadsom could end up being a Tory Jeremy Corbyn but without an allotment0
-
It certainly is, the Labour candidates were all scared of their left-wing.Tissue_Price said:Isn't it something to behold the destruction of Andrea Leadsom's case for leader by both pro- and anti-Tory media? And by her colleagues, both former and current.
The contrast with Corbyn's election - in which practically no-one on the Labour side actually took him to task for his former views; any action was restricted to worrying about how they might be presented - is once again absolutely glaring.0 -
More scaremongering from Project Reality
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/dimon-warns-of-job-losses-as-post-brexit-property-pain-spreads0 -
heir to Blair's methods of government.HurstLlama said:
I agree, but that was the decision of Cameron and Osborne. As usual they let short term political considerations trump responsible government.Pulpstar said:
Regardless of the result the failure to do any sort of contingency planning is/was mind bogglingly irresponsible.HurstLlama said:
Sounds about right.Indigo said:
They were concerned that if they gamed and planned it in detail they might find that the world was actually not going to end, and that after some initial bumps it would be completely manageable... if that leaked out it would be curtains for Project Bollocks, so they threw away responsible national contingency planning for short terms political reasons.dr_spyn said:
Risk of Brexit was there, so Hammond ignores it? Though he also claims that there was a risk that any study would have been leaked.
I would have thought that HMG would have gamed or discussed implications of Brexit occuring, but then planning for an end game does seem rather out of fashion since 2003.
Yesterday Blair and co got a kicking for failing to plan for what happened after they toppled Saddam, and rightly so. Cameron also had no plan for what would happen in Libya after he helped to topple the government their after his unnecessary war. What stopped him learning the lessons from Iraq?
Why some think that Cameron was a good PM is quite beyond me.0 -
And Amazon.MonikerDiCanio said:I see that, post-Brexit, Tata Steel has had a rethink and decided to maintain its British investments.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-367307590 -
John_M said:
GDP/capita has been flat since 2007. We just make ourselves look good by importing more people.DecrepitJohnL said:
OK. GDP per capita fell due to the global financial meltdown but was still higher than that inherited from the Conservatives, and then it rose again until Osborne flatlined the economy.Indigo said:
This would be the -0.8% one year technical recession that is forecast before returning to growth ? Remind me what happened to GDP/Capita under Gordon Brown's premiership again ?OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM136925
The media would do well to report GDP per head rather than GDP.
Increased productivity is the way to increased wealth rather than increased population.
0 -
-
Indeed, this is not a time for 'steady as she goes', but for someone with a vision of where to aim for from here and the skills to chart a viable course. A PhD in keeping your head below the parapet is not a positive indicator ...David_Evershed said:
Radical thinking sometimes trumps conventional thinking eg Margaret Thatcher.midwinter said:
One mans older is another mans more experienced. Either way Leadsom and her supporters are a branch of politicians the Tory party would, in many cases, be well rid of. Electorally at least they are a nightmare waiting to happen.David_Evershed said:
Leadsom is way warmer than May.midwinter said:
She was poor in the second debate too. She was ineffectual and cold which isn't a great combination.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She didn't today. Just walked off with no questions. Very poorManWithThePlan said:
No. Because she knows her stuff when challenged and has excellent communication skills. She can connect with the public very effectively.eek said:
Because she is New and Shiny. Neither of which are a reason to vote for her...ToryJim said:
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.MaxPB said:
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.ToryJim said:
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by XmasMaxPB said:
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.ToryJim said:I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
May is old and tired, which is probably why she made the mistake of saying she woud use EU residents in the UK as a negotiating ploy and not guarantee their continued residence in the UK.
Now is the time to think radically and act conservatively.
Vote Leadsom.0 -
London-banker-centric yet again.not_on_fire said:More scaremongering from Project Reality
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/dimon-warns-of-job-losses-as-post-brexit-property-pain-spreads
There is a nation beyond.0 -
Go for 2nd then deny all knowledge of such a conversation....Animal_pb said:
Negotiate a better deal. If she can't do that, well, then....Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?
If Theresa is playing such games (and she wouldn't be that stupid) you just give Gove the votes...0 -
Love Ruth:
@RuthDavidsonMSP .@jimwaterson is that Theresa Villiers *actually* clutching her pearls with discomfort at 4 secs from end? I thought that was just a saying.
0 -
I'm voting for Gove if I can.MTimT said:
Indeed, this is not a time for 'steady as she goes', but for someone with a vision of where to aim for from here and the skills to chart a viable course. A PhD in keeping your head below the parapet is not a positive indicator ...David_Evershed said:
Radical thinking sometimes trumps conventional thinking eg Margaret Thatcher.midwinter said:
One mans older is another mans more experienced. Either way Leadsom and her supporters are a branch of politicians the Tory party would, in many cases, be well rid of. Electorally at least they are a nightmare waiting to happen.David_Evershed said:
Leadsom is way warmer than May.midwinter said:
She was poor in the second debate too. She was ineffectual and cold which isn't a great combination.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She didn't today. Just walked off with no questions. Very poorManWithThePlan said:
No. Because she knows her stuff when challenged and has excellent communication skills. She can connect with the public very effectively.eek said:
Because she is New and Shiny. Neither of which are a reason to vote for her...ToryJim said:
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.MaxPB said:
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.ToryJim said:
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by XmasMaxPB said:ToryJim said:I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
May is old and tired, which is probably why she made the mistake of saying she woud use EU residents in the UK as a negotiating ploy and not guarantee their continued residence in the UK.
Now is the time to think radically and act conservatively.
Vote Leadsom.0 -
Corbyn's saviour speaks again:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-367339790 -
A former colleague at investment firm Invesco Perpetual, Robert Stephens, has said "she didn't manage any teams, large or small and certainly did not manage any funds."Big_G_NorthWales said:
She is hiding from the revelations on her cv and tax affairs. She has got some explaining to do and if she can then fine but at present it looks shiftyDavid_Evershed said:
Leadsom is better answering questions than reading out her speech.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She didn't today. Just walked off with no questions. Very poorManWithThePlan said:
No. Because she knows her stuff when challenged and has excellent communication skills. She can connect with the public very effectively.eek said:
Because she is New and Shiny. Neither of which are a reason to vote for her...ToryJim said:
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.MaxPB said:
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.ToryJim said:
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by XmasMaxPB said:
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.ToryJim said:I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
Perhaps today she did't have the time since she is a minister and an MP with Department and Constituency affairs to run as well as the leadership campaign.
So perhaps she's "just getting on with the job" ?
That was after a friendly MP, Bernard Jenkin, spoke of her history managing "hundreds of people and billions of pounds".
A CV listing the post Financial Institutions Director at Barclays later added the word "deputy".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-367302160 -
Or PM if the members don't take kindly to May trying to avoid them... it's the all or nothing approach I grant you...Tissue_Price said:
It's Northern Ireland for her if she does thatLennon said:
Say 2nd, but then not withdraw? ("On reflection, it is right to give the members the choice etc. etc.")Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?0 -
That takes reporting on price moves to a new low. NB bet365 have just pushed her out from 9/2 to 5/1dr_spyn said: 0 -
My view is that it's just a shit measure all round. It appeals to technocrats and makes very little difference to peoples lives. Love and obsession with those high level measures are partly why I feel our politicians have become disengaged from ordinary people, and partly why all the economic arguments failed to resonate in the referendum campaign.David_Evershed said:John_M said:
GDP/capita has been flat since 2007. We just make ourselves look good by importing more people.DecrepitJohnL said:
OK. GDP per capita fell due to the global financial meltdown but was still higher than that inherited from the Conservatives, and then it rose again until Osborne flatlined the economy.Indigo said:
This would be the -0.8% one year technical recession that is forecast before returning to growth ? Remind me what happened to GDP/Capita under Gordon Brown's premiership again ?OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM136925
The media would do well to report GDP per head rather than GDP.
Increased productivity is the way to increased wealth rather than increased population.
My current preference is for measures around disposable income. People measure prosperity (I assert!) by how much they've left to spend after paying their bills. It means you can't frig it as easily as inflation figures, average wage rises and so forth. It also takes into account some of the beneficial changes like personal allowance increases.0 -
The danger here is that May is getting a free ride.Tissue_Price said:Isn't it something to behold the destruction of Andrea Leadsom's case for leader by both pro- and anti-Tory media? And by her colleagues, both former and current.
The contrast with Corbyn's election - in which practically no-one on the Labour side actually took him to task for his former views; any action was restricted to worrying about how they might be presented - is once again absolutely glaring.0 -
Mr. M., I am not sure what that has to do with the idea of HMG contingency planning is actually a good idea.John_M said:
It's hard to do the IFS conclusions justice briefly. They concluded that it would cost the UK between £20-40 billion by 2019 (they plumped for the NIESR models). That means one-two years more 'austerity'. Basically, yes we can do it, but on a purely economic basis, it's not worth it.HurstLlama said:
Sounds about right.Indigo said:
They were concerned that if they gamed and planned it in detail they might find that the world was actually not going to end, and that after some initial bumps it would be completely manageable... if that leaked out it would be curtains for Project Bollocks, so they threw away responsible national contingency planning for short terms political reasons.dr_spyn said:
Risk of Brexit was there, so Hammond ignores it? Though he also claims that there was a risk that any study would have been leaked.
I would have thought that HMG would have gamed or discussed implications of Brexit occuring, but then planning for an end game does seem rather out of fashion since 2003.
Which is fair enough. Both Leave campaigns saw it was funded by a pro-Europe group, screamed in anger and threw the baby out with the bathwater.
The IFS figures may or may not be valid but they should have been a factor to take into account in the making the contingency plans, not an excuse for not doing any planning.
P.S. £20-40bn by 2019 when government expenditure will be in excess of £2,100bn over the same period? That looks bloody close to a rounding error to me.0 -
Well said.John_M said:
My view is that it's just a shit measure all round. It appeals to technocrats and makes very little difference to peoples lives. Love and obsession with those high level measures are partly why I feel our politicians have become disengaged from ordinary people, and partly why all the economic arguments failed to resonate in the referendum campaign.David_Evershed said:John_M said:
GDP/capita has been flat since 2007. We just make ourselves look good by importing more people.DecrepitJohnL said:
OK. GDP per capita fell due to the global financial meltdown but was still higher than that inherited from the Conservatives, and then it rose again until Osborne flatlined the economy.Indigo said:
This would be the -0.8% one year technical recession that is forecast before returning to growth ? Remind me what happened to GDP/Capita under Gordon Brown's premiership again ?OllyT said:
Your relentlessly upbeat posts are reminding me more and more of Comical Ali as each day passes. Can't wait for the next instalment, they are going to get ever more hilarious as the months pass and we slide into recession.TCPoliticalBetting said:Terrible news for .......Project fear. Please do not show to SeanT as the shock may be too much.
"Britain’s housing market is “back to business as usual”, according to mortgage brokers, conveyancers, estate agents – and buyers and sellers."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/business-as-usual-as-housing-and-mortgage-markets-crank-back-to/?WT.mc_id=e_DM136925&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Pfi_New_Mon_2016_07_06&utm_campaign=DM136925
The media would do well to report GDP per head rather than GDP.
Increased productivity is the way to increased wealth rather than increased population.
My current preference is for measures around disposable income. People measure prosperity (I assert!) by how much they've left to spend after paying their bills. It means you can't frig it as easily as inflation figures, average wage rises and so forth. It also takes into account some of the beneficial changes like personal allowance increases.0 -
@BBCNormanS: I was never a fund manger - @andrealeadsom on her CV0
-
Clearly bet365 are the Jon Snow of political betting. They know nothing.Tissue_Price said:
That takes reporting on price moves to a new low. NB bet365 have just pushed her out from 9/2 to 5/1dr_spyn said:0 -
I agree she wouldn't though I expect the MPs to. Gove to finish 2nd looks a bet.eek said:
Go for 2nd then deny all knowledge of such a conversation....Animal_pb said:
Negotiate a better deal. If she can't do that, well, then....Tissue_Price said:Thought experiment:
Theresa May calls Andrea Leadsom into her office and gives her the choice of finishing 2nd today and gracefully withdrawing, or finishing 3rd.
What does Andrea do?
If Theresa is playing such games (and she wouldn't be that stupid) you just give Gove the votes...0 -
Mr Dimon said that they "could... if ... might ...likely would not ....."not_on_fire said:More scaremongering from Project Reality
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/dimon-warns-of-job-losses-as-post-brexit-property-pain-spreads
fly a kite.... if we see flying pink elephants .....
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I am British and buy things in £.MaxPB said:
Taking into account the 13% devaluation on Sterling puts the FTSE 100 down about 8%.felix said:
Can you put them up when they take into effect the devaluation in sterling?TCPoliticalBetting said:More terrible facts for Project Fear
Samuel Coates Retweeted
The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
Stocks, past month.
UK: +4.4%
Russia: -2.7%
Poland: -4.6%
Netherlands: -5%
France: -7.4%
Germany: -8%
Spain: -10%
Italy: -13%
Greece: -19%
If I sell shares I will get £ back
The value in £ has gone up.
Sure some imported goods I might want to spend my £ on may soon go up in price, but many are not imported, and crucially the main expenditure I have is a mortgage. Which is in £, and is fixed.
So OK, converting the FTSE into another currency is not completely irrelevant, but it is more important that it has gone up in £.
I will mark you down as "Remain/hysterical"
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I agree but Andrea doesn't do thinking. Her presentation this morning was vacuous and absolutely not Prime Ministerial. If she wins she will be overwhelmed within six monthsDavid_Evershed said:
Radical thinking sometimes trumps conventional thinking eg Margaret Thatcher.midwinter said:
One mans older is another mans more experienced. Either way Leadsom and her supporters are a branch of politicians the Tory party would, in many cases, be well rid of. Electorally at least they are a nightmare waiting to happen.David_Evershed said:
Leadsom is way warmer than May.midwinter said:
She was poor in the second debate too. She was ineffectual and cold which isn't a great combination.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She didn't today. Just walked off with no questions. Very poorManWithThePlan said:
No. Because she knows her stuff when challenged and has excellent communication skills. She can connect with the public very effectively.eek said:
Because she is New and Shiny. Neither of which are a reason to vote for her...ToryJim said:
Trouble is the most enthusiastic support is from the CWF/YBF/Mark Clarke Style libertarian moron youth wing.MaxPB said:
Agreed. I think her association with outside forces (Banks, UKIP, Farage, Leave.EU etc...) and not having any backing from remain supporters is going to make her easy to box assuming a May victory.ToryJim said:
Oh no doubt but the likes of Villiers and Mordaunt will not prosper. Plus the thing with the Brexit ministry is that Andrea will probably rub up the EU negotiators so badly she'll be sacked by XmasMaxPB said:
Well I think Leadsom is going to be made Minister for Brexit after this showing. Gove will get off easy.ToryJim said:I suspect that when May is installed as PM some of the useless idiots supporting Leadweight will find their careers permanently retarded.
What's scary is that I'm beginning to come around to the idea of Gove as PM such is my dislike of Leadsom. She represents the God-bothering, gay-bashing, Tombstone group wing of the party. I can't wait for them all to die in the next 10 years.
May is old and tired, which is probably why she made the mistake of saying she woud use EU residents in the UK as a negotiating ploy and not guarantee their continued residence in the UK.
Now is the time to think radically and act conservatively.
Vote Leadsom.0
