politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more fr
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I know of two in the 1940s but no prior cousins for at least 5 generations. They had 5 children all healthy. Two won scholarships to grammar schools, (1 made head girl). 1 refused to do the entrance exam! The other 2 were of average intelligence. I always wonder if being children of cousins tilted the intelligence factor.NickPalmer said:
I know two white English-born people who have married cousins. It's not illegal though I think they did look into the genetic issues - apparently a 2% higher risk - before (in one case) having kids. There are a host of legal things which you can do which may increase the risk of childbirth more, like having a child when you're 35 (increases the risk near four times). Would you ban them all, or only the ones you feel aren't sufficiently British? How about a ban on mad authors?SeanT said:
Perhaps unsurprisingly, I don't give a monkey's. Ban cousin marriages, bad mad mullahs, ban sharia law, ban the burqa. Those that like these stupid unBritish things can go and enjoy them in Pakistan or Bangladesh.
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I can't recall where I read it - but one psephologist analysis of the vote was 2.8m DNV did. And almost all of them chose Brexit.nunu said:
More like wwc can't be fucked to do polls, they get calls a thousand times a day about ppi and an accident that wasn't your fault, and tons of junk emails a day they ain't got time for that.MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
The samples are shit. Only loud lefties can be bothered to do polls no matter their demographics.
They were discounted by pollsters or not counted at all. It shows how a junk sample is very misleading.0 -
I'm amazed people are taking polls seriously.
If a company got one poll correct, the question has to be asked whether it was a false positive.
After the referendum and GE 2015, polls have to be taken with the same seriousness that we used to take subsamples. Still, they'e grist for the mill on here.
As an aside, is it 'grist to the mill' or 'grist for the mill'. I thought the latter, but the web seems to go for either.0 -
The Easter Rising was pretty shambolic, but in the end it worked out better for its cause than its instigators could ever have hoped for.PlatoSaid said:
Has there ever been such an incompetent coup attempt?old_labour said:
They will be blaming Jeremy for the Iraq war because he did not oppose it hard enough.AndyJS said:Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
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A million extra voters on GE2015 turned out to vote Leave – bet they weren’t on the books.PlatoSaid said:
I can't recall where I read it - but one psephologist analysis of the vote was 2.8m DNV did. And almost all of them chose Brexit.nunu said:
More like wwc can't be fucked to do polls, they get calls a thousand times a day about ppi and an accident that wasn't your fault, and tons of junk emails a day they ain't got time for that.MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
The samples are shit. Only loud lefties can be bothered to do polls no matter their demographics.
They were discounted by pollsters or not counted at all. It shows how a junk sample is very misleading.0 -
No. So many people think they voted labour at the last election that the samples show Labour won a majority. When ofcourse they didn't. People forget/lie about how they voted.Jobabob said:MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
Except that the poll asked the sample how they voted and matched it to that (in fact the sample is marginally more pro-Leave than the actual result)MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
Interesting?
Buy if u want another referundum, be my guest we started from 20 points behind last time and won by 4 points, this time.........0 -
She has already clearly said she won't invoke Article 50 this year.kle4 said:
It is for just that reason I am convinced May will not be able to wait until next year, even if she secretly wanted to do so. When she will declare article 50 will come up again and again, and she will need to continually justify during the leadership campaign why she thinks we need to wait, and why until 2017 as I believe she had previously indicated. In order to reassure the more strident leavers, and given she will need to lay our at least the bare bones of her brexit strategy in the leadership campaign, she will need to pull the trigger before then, as what needs a longer delay if we know in general what we are aiming for.SeanT said:
The difference between this and other referendums is that we have ANOTHER date with destiny. The day we pull the trigger on Article 50.Brom said:
Not really interesting, more meaningless. Everyone knew when the vote was and that was the date that mattered. Time to move on.Jobabob said:
Yup. But this sample is based on actual votes in the referendum. In fact the sample is marginally more pro-leave than the actual result!RobD said:
Didn't polls also show remain would win?Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
*innocent face*
Interesting.
If the trend in that Welsh poll continues (and today's economic news will shunt it that way) then we could see polls showing REMAIN 60/40 next year. As the economy goes swiftly down the toilet.
At that point I expect Prime Minister May would do the British thing, and extract some ludicrous, craven, face-saving fudge from Brussels, allowing us to revote and STAY.
Leadsome and other Leaver MPs will not permit backsliding. Even if dozens of Tory Leaver MPs are bremorsed into not wanting to leave after all, so so many will not, plenty of remainers will think it is too late even if the economy goes to hell, and the members would not stand for it. Any hint brexiting will not occur and May is done.
And all of this requires getting some more fudge from Brussels, which would be more politically disastrous than any negative impacts from a Brexit - they don't agree on much, many would have liked us to stay, but let us remain now, but they don't want to be blackmailed by other nations voting to leave. (granted they cannot kick us out if we don't actually declare article 50, but for that reason wouldn't offer anything to us before we declare either).0 -
Indeed. Even many avowed eurosceptics want to wait until a solid plan is secured.williamglenn said:
Article 50 can't be constitutionally triggered without a vote in parliament. No PM will win that vote unless they have a watertight plan for what happens next. There aren't enough anti-EU fanatics in parliament to vote for it blind, regardless of the referendum result.kle4 said:Any hint brexiting will not occur and May is done.
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Going to repeat myself. Only about 13% of the economy is concerned with Europe. It's a very important chunk of course. The world still revolves about its axis. It's the effect on the City and overall business/consumer sentiment that bothers me, short term.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Where is this financial meltdown? The commercial property market is just under £1 trillion (2014 est £0.8tn). There is £0.015 trillion where shares are suspended for the 6 entities listed in the Tgraph article.SeanT said:
A fair point (as always)Sean_F said:
I think a rerun of the Referendum would have a similar outcome to the Winchester by-election in 1997. IMHO, the numbers you should watch are for those who want a fresh referendum, currently 2:1 against.SeanT said:
The difference between this and other referendums is that we have ANOTHER date with destiny. The day we pull the trigger on Article 50.Brom said:
Not really interesting, more meaningless. Everyone knew when the vote was and that was the date that mattered. Time to move on.Jobabob said:
Yup. But this sample is based on actual votes in the referendum. In fact the sample is marginally more pro-leave than the actual result!RobD said:
Didn't polls also show remain would win?Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
*innocent face*
Interesting.
If the trend in that Welsh poll continues (and today's economic news will shunt it that way) then we could see polls showing REMAIN 60/40 next year. As the economy goes swiftly down the toilet.
At that point I expect Prime Minister May would do the British thing, and extract some ludicrous, craven, face-saving fudge from Brussels, allowing us to revote and STAY.
But you rather blithely ignore the economic question. If we really are in financial meltdown then that will change the game entirely.
It depends on the severity of the downturn.
What about the £9 trillion in private wealth (most in housing). Is that in some meltdown?
Or what about the FTSE100 where most of the UK share value is?
I met 11 people running SMEs today and none had had a single contract cancelled or delayed and none were worried about Brexit. Also the view from the member of a very large private wealth company is that their investments are up on 6 months ago. But I do not mix with north london chattering classes, these days, so clearly I do not mix in the right circles........0 -
Hence why i said she had previously indicated she would wait until 2017 - the point remains that any hope some people have of brexit not occurring is predicated on delaying the declaration as long as possible, and leavers know that, and she will be pressured into upping that timetable precisely so there is no fear she is trying such a tactic. And if she did try it, she would be challenged and brought down. Which is why she won't. And why she will face enormous pressure to change her tune on when to declare.Jobabob said:
She has already clearly said she won't invoke Article 50 this year.
All but the fringe and the fools have said Brexit is Brexit - even the LD pitch is Brexit will happen - but we were discussing a scenario in which that would change. It is far far easier to imagine a situation wherein May declares earlier than she said she would right now, than a situation she will ever be strong enough to not declare at all, even if she wanted to.0 -
Hopefully she wasn't as creative with her tax return as she was with her CVIanB2 said:First Leadsom promises live on prime TV to publish her tax return. Then she qualifies this by saying only if she gets to the final two. Now she won't publish at all.
First she promises to submit under Article 50 the minute she is elected. Then she says she won't.
How can she ever hope to get away with such slippery a performance?0 -
The response I have had to posting a simple poll that matched its sample to actual voters is somewhat telling: the poll is simply not to be believed. I suspect the response would have been entirely different if the Welsh poll showed the opposite result...Sean_F said:
Actually, the only good comparison would be if the same voters had been asked for their voting intention on the eve of poll. There's a tendency for some voters to claim to have voted for the winner, after the event, when in fact they didn't.Jobabob said:
The sample is matched to actual votes in the referendum - ergo a decisive cohort have changed their minds.....Wulfrun_Phil said:
Was there any poll before the referendum that showed Wales in favour of Brexit? Is Welsh opinion polling on Brexit as error prone as that for the rest of the UK?Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/0 -
To make an alternative species comparison... As many here know, I bred pedigree cats for a long while.Sean_F said:
One-off first cousin marriages are rarely a problem. Successive first cousin marriages most certainly are.SeanT said:
The risk of a birth defect is doubled if you marry your cousin (and that's presuming no history of cousin marriage, which adds to the problem).NickPalmer said:
I know two white English-born people who have married cousins. It's not illegal though I think they did look into the genetic issues - apparently a 2% higher risk - before (in one case) having kids. There are a host of legal things which you can do which may increase the risk of childbirth more, like having a child when you're 35 (increases the risk near four times). Would you ban them all, or only the ones you feel aren't sufficiently British? How about a ban on mad authors?SeanT said:
Perhaps unsurprisingly, I don't give a monkey's. Ban cousin marriages, bad mad mullahs, ban sharia law, ban the burqa. Those that like these stupid unBritish things can go and enjoy them in Pakistan or Bangladesh.
Besides, of course, the intention of the law is to make fundamentalist Muslims not move here, and to make those already here go back to an Islamic society which welcomes their views on gay people, women, democracy, etc.
It was a complete no-no to include any offspring closer than 5 generations in the breeding pool. So that's parents or siblings plus grandparents/great grandparents/great great grandparents/great great great grandparents.
Anything less put offspring at significant risk of inherited genetic disorders, early death et al.
If pedigree cats have stricter breeding rules than humans - that says it all.0 -
With Betfair? I wouldn't assume it would be void at all, based on their rules:Richard_Nabavi said:
Now hang on, you're not looking at the wider picture. I'm on a May/Leadsom final and the bet's void if there's no members' vote.MarqueeMark said:It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
[says a man on May/Gove @ 11.0
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This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request.
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This guy puts the case against backsliding pretty well.
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Bloomberg.PlatoSaid said:
I can't recall where I read it - but one psephologist analysis of the vote was 2.8m DNV did. And almost all of them chose Brexit.nunu said:
More like wwc can't be fucked to do polls, they get calls a thousand times a day about ppi and an accident that wasn't your fault, and tons of junk emails a day they ain't got time for that.MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
The samples are shit. Only loud lefties can be bothered to do polls no matter their demographics.
They were discounted by pollsters or not counted at all. It shows how a junk sample is very misleading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-04/the-2-8-million-non-voters-who-delivered-brexit0 -
It seems the most sensible approach - but how long politically can be allowed for it to be developed is where even people who want that solid plan may disagree.Jobabob said:
Indeed. Even many avowed eurosceptics want to wait until a solid plan is secured.williamglenn said:
Article 50 can't be constitutionally triggered without a vote in parliament. No PM will win that vote unless they have a watertight plan for what happens next. There aren't enough anti-EU fanatics in parliament to vote for it blind, regardless of the referendum result.kle4 said:Any hint brexiting will not occur and May is done.
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My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.0 -
No, this is like burning down the house you share with someone you hate to get them to leave.SimonStClare said:
Don’t think you have to go quite as far back as that, the coup attempt against Brown was dire.old_labour said:
You would have to ask @Morris_Dancer the answer to that question. I am rather hazy on events that happened 2 to 3 thousand years ago.PlatoSaid said:
Has there ever been such an incompetent coup attempt?old_labour said:
They will be blaming Jeremy for the Iraq war because he did not oppose it hard enough.AndyJS said:Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
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Nick's friends are dangerously confusing absolute and relative percentages. According to wikipedia "Cousin marriage" "In April 2002, the Journal of Genetic Counseling released a report which estimated the average risk of birth defects in a child born of first cousins at 1.1–2.0% over an average base risk for non-cousin couples of 3% , or about the same as that of any woman over age 40." An extra 2% on top of a base 3% is actually a 66% increase. I am puzzled the report doesn't distinguish between types of birth defect; there is no reason why the defects caused by paired recessives and those caused by aging in the parents should be the same.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I know of two in the 1940s but no prior cousins for at least 5 generations. They had 5 children all healthy. Two won scholarships to grammar schools, (1 made head girl). 1 refused to do the entrance exam! The other 2 were of average intelligence. I always wonder if being children of cousins tilted the intelligence factor.NickPalmer said:
I know two white English-born people who have married cousins. It's not illegal though I think they did look into the genetic issues - apparently a 2% higher risk - before (in one case) having kids. There are a host of legal things which you can do which may increase the risk of childbirth more, like having a child when you're 35 (increases the risk near four times). Would you ban them all, or only the ones you feel aren't sufficiently British? How about a ban on mad authors?SeanT said:
Perhaps unsurprisingly, I don't give a monkey's. Ban cousin marriages, bad mad mullahs, ban sharia law, ban the burqa. Those that like these stupid unBritish things can go and enjoy them in Pakistan or Bangladesh.0 -
One of the more interesting things on here is just how many posters have a non-Brit partner.MaxPB said:
My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.0 -
If it did, the number actually settling permanently would be substantially higher than the number who had the right to stay permanently for the reason I stated and others.rpjs said:
That's not the point I'm making. I'm talking about only counting as immigrants those who unequivocally have the right to stay permanently, not those that might at some future point acquire that right. The UK doesn't do that.Indigo said:
The Americans have the massive advantage of not having the idiocy of Article 8. In the UK it is far too easy to arrive as a visitor, overstay, find a boy/girlfriend, ideally have a baby, and claim Article 8 for instant permanent right to remain.rpjs said:Only people classed as 'immigrants' are counted as immigrants, as only they can stay permanently in the US. Everyone else has to go home sooner or later.
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Was Jezza prominent in Stop the War in 2004?
https://twitter.com/rossfootball/status/7507453889996677120 -
MaxPB said:
My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.
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That's Vernon Bogdanor, PPE Tutor to David Cameron (and many others).John_M said:This guy puts the case against backsliding pretty well.
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More like a bratty teenager holding a match and shouting they they will burn it down, they really will, and then storming off to their room in a huff. Unless things change and they either leave the house themselves, or follow through.old_labour said:
No, this is like burning down the house you share with someone you hate to get them to leave.SimonStClare said:
Don’t think you have to go quite as far back as that, the coup attempt against Brown was dire.old_labour said:
You would have to ask @Morris_Dancer the answer to that question. I am rather hazy on events that happened 2 to 3 thousand years ago.PlatoSaid said:
Has there ever been such an incompetent coup attempt?old_labour said:
They will be blaming Jeremy for the Iraq war because he did not oppose it hard enough.AndyJS said:Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
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Beyond superb - so Screen JunkiesMP_SE said:Quite amusing video from Leave.EU:
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/750640588639260672
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Is everyone going to watch the best team in the United Kingdom instead of posting until we are in the final. Cmon Wales0
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Usually a safe bet to ignore non-voters. For once, it didn't work.PlatoSaid said:
I can't recall where I read it - but one psephologist analysis of the vote was 2.8m DNV did. And almost all of them chose Brexit.nunu said:
More like wwc can't be fucked to do polls, they get calls a thousand times a day about ppi and an accident that wasn't your fault, and tons of junk emails a day they ain't got time for that.MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
The samples are shit. Only loud lefties can be bothered to do polls no matter their demographics.
They were discounted by pollsters or not counted at all. It shows how a junk sample is very misleading.
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Five nephews, two foreign partners. If you look at the early British Empire, the Brits have always been willing to marry out. That's probably why I find the 'Little Englander' epithet so distasteful.MarqueeMark said:
One of the more interesting things on here is just how many posters have a non-Brit partner.MaxPB said:
My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.0 -
Even among my friends, I just went to a wedding in Greece, next year a wedding where the bride is half Iranian, another has a long term partner from Finland and in 2018 there's a probably wedding in Italy for a friend who's gf is Italian. Brexit may be sub-optimal for a lot of us if we leave the single market.MarqueeMark said:
One of the more interesting things on here is just how many posters have a non-Brit partner.MaxPB said:
My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.0 -
Watching!Big_G_NorthWales said:Is everyone going to watch the best team in the United Kingdom instead of posting until we are in the final. Cmon Wales
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Such little imagination - we can do both.Big_G_NorthWales said:Is everyone going to watch the best team in the United Kingdom instead of posting until we are in the final. Cmon Wales
Come on Wales!0 -
Wait for things to get a bit worse, declare a limited state of emergency and then reach for the Civil Contingencies Act 2004John_N4 said:
The royal prerogative can't be used to frustrate the will of parliament, e.g. to turn the 1972 ECA into a dead letter.RoyalBlue said:
Wishful thinking. Article 50 can be triggered; the 1972 European Communities Act requires parliamentary repeal, but it would be silly to refuse if under EU law we were already out.williamglenn said:
Article 50 can't be constitutionally triggered without a vote in parliament. No PM will win that vote unless they have a watertight plan for what happens next. There aren't enough anti-EU fanatics in parliament to vote for it blind, regardless of the referendum result.kle4 said:Any hint brexiting will not occur and May is done.
I am still amazed that parliament passed such an idiotically broad and illiberal law, but there you go. 0 -
This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
Ha! I moved to my wife's country and now live less than two hundred miles from my m-i-l rather than 3,500. Funnily enough though, in many respects I get on better with her than my wife does...MaxPB said:
My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.0 -
I like calling him 'this guy'TheWhiteRabbit said:
That's Vernon Bogdanor, PPE Tutor to David Cameron (and many others).John_M said:This guy puts the case against backsliding pretty well.
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They'd rather grab ankle than break away. Do any have the will?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
Murray being scottish0
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FTFYTheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup Labour Party is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
If Leadsom won, could we see a similar influx of new Tory members to sure up her position in the event that she were challenged?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
And pollsters will have another truck load of new/latent voters to deal with next time. Were they accurate post SIndy?kle4 said:
Usually a safe bet to ignore non-voters. For once, it didn't work.PlatoSaid said:
I can't recall where I read it - but one psephologist analysis of the vote was 2.8m DNV did. And almost all of them chose Brexit.nunu said:
More like wwc can't be fucked to do polls, they get calls a thousand times a day about ppi and an accident that wasn't your fault, and tons of junk emails a day they ain't got time for that.MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
The samples are shit. Only loud lefties can be bothered to do polls no matter their demographics.
They were discounted by pollsters or not counted at all. It shows how a junk sample is very misleading.0 -
Murray losing his cool.0
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Bollocks - Wales game - or Murray fifth set? Aaaaaargh!!!!0
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My CLP surveyed their members and I answered honestly if I were a genuine Labour voter rather than a cuckoo.kle4 said:
They'd rather grab ankle than break away. Do any have the will?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-600000
Be interesting to see what the results are.0 -
TV = Ramshaggers matchMarqueeMark said:Bollocks - Wales game - or Murray fifth set? Aaaaaargh!!!!
iPad = Murray match0 -
Dual head ftw. Murray wobbling a bit though.MarqueeMark said:Bollocks - Wales game - or Murray fifth set? Aaaaaargh!!!!
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The Conservative system is, unlike Labour's, sensible. She wouldn't be on the ballot. When the Tories knife someone, they stay knifed.williamglenn said:
If Leadsom won, could we see a similar influx of new Tory members to sure up her position in the event that she were challenged?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
What I'm saying is well-attested. Ask any pollster, they'll tell you more people will claim to have supported the winner than did so.Jobabob said:
The response I have had to posting a simple poll that matched its sample to actual voters is somewhat telling: the poll is simply not to be believed. I suspect the response would have been entirely different if the Welsh poll showed the opposite result...Sean_F said:
Actually, the only good comparison would be if the same voters had been asked for their voting intention on the eve of poll. There's a tendency for some voters to claim to have voted for the winner, after the event, when in fact they didn't.Jobabob said:
The sample is matched to actual votes in the referendum - ergo a decisive cohort have changed their minds.....Wulfrun_Phil said:
Was there any poll before the referendum that showed Wales in favour of Brexit? Is Welsh opinion polling on Brexit as error prone as that for the rest of the UK?Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
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Harsh. Two lessons from todayTissue_Price said:
FTFYTheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup Labour Party is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-600000
1) A government needs a strong opposition to keep them honest (cf IDS and Iraq)
2) Andrea Leadsom is a modern day Blair. She was 45 minutes away from being Chief Executive of Barclays.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29Mg6Gfh9CoTheScreamingEagles said:
TV = Ramshaggers matchMarqueeMark said:Bollocks - Wales game - or Murray fifth set? Aaaaaargh!!!!
iPad = Murray match0 -
Interesting. This discussion is classic PB, isn't it?MarkSenior said:
It should be remembered that whilst marrying cousins and having children increases the risk of bad genes being passed on , it also increases the chances of good genes being passed on .NickPalmer said:
I know two white English-born people who have married cousins. It's not illegal though I think they did look into the genetic issues - apparently a 2% higher risk - before (in one case) having kids. There are a host of legal things which you can do which may increase the risk of childbirth more, like having a child when you're 35 (increases the risk near four times). Would you ban them all, or only the ones you feel aren't sufficiently British? How about a ban on mad authors?SeanT said:
Perhaps unsurprisingly, I don't give a monkey's. Ban cousin marriages, bad mad mullahs, ban sharia law, ban the burqa. Those that like these stupid unBritish things can go and enjoy them in Pakistan or Bangladesh.
You can also note the behaviour of 2 closely related species of UK butterflies . The High Brown Fritillary is very averse to mating with close relatives especially siblings . The Dark Green Fritillary behaves in exactly the opposite manner . The High Brown has become extremely endangered as numbers fall it becomes even harder to find an acceptable mate whilst the Dark Green is maintaining numbers well .0 -
Quite. In the middle ages the Church in each parish kept "Blood Books" with sole intention of making sure genetic defects caused by inbreeding did not occur. The population didn't move around much in those days so the blood book was the insurance policy. The consanguinity rules were strictly applied.PlatoSaid said:
To make an alternative species comparison... As many here know, I bred pedigree cats for a long while.Sean_F said:
One-off first cousin marriages are rarely a problem. Successive first cousin marriages most certainly are.SeanT said:
The risk of a birth defect is doubled if you marry your cousin (and that's presuming no history of cousin marriage, which adds to the problem).NickPalmer said:
I know two white English-born people who have married cousins. It's not illegal though I think they did look into the genetic issues - apparently a 2% higher risk - before (in one case) having kids. There are a host of legal things which you can do which may increase the risk of childbirth more, like having a child when you're 35 (increases the risk near four times). Would you ban them all, or only the ones you feel aren't sufficiently British? How about a ban on mad authors?SeanT said:
Perhaps unsurprisingly, I don't give a monkey's. Ban cousin marriages, bad mad mullahs, ban sharia law, ban the burqa. Those that like these stupid unBritish things can go and enjoy them in Pakistan or Bangladesh.
Besides, of course, the intention of the law is to make fundamentalist Muslims not move here, and to make those already here go back to an Islamic society which welcomes their views on gay people, women, democracy, etc.
It was a complete no-no to include any offspring closer than 5 generations in the breeding pool. So that's parents or siblings plus grandparents/great grandparents/great great grandparents/great great great grandparents.
Anything less put offspring at significant risk of inherited genetic disorders, early death et al.
If pedigree cats have stricter breeding rules than humans - that says it all.
Except of course for the monarchy and ruling classes not so much in England but certainly in France, Spain and the Holy Roman Empire. For the very wealthy a papal exemption against the rule could always be obtained. Just look at the results. The number of members of the royal families born with genetic defects was way above the norm. In the 19th century even our own royal family started to be affected.
Mr. Palmer's 2% extra risk is frankly bollocks. Interbreeding leads to birth defects. Even the BBC agrees.0 -
If Leadsom won, she'd be safe due to the outflow of existing Tory members, without need for new ones....williamglenn said:
If Leadsom won, could we see a similar influx of new Tory members to sure up her position in the event that she were challenged?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
The PM would not ask parliament for A50 without a coherent negotiating strategy. So long as there is such a strategy set out parliament would surely give its assent. The notion that the majority who voted Remain would transform into a blocking majority is wishful thinking by some.Sean_F said:
That's clutching at straws, to be honest.williamglenn said:
Article 50 requires that the withdrawing state make the decision in accordance with its constitutional requirements.RoyalBlue said:
Wishful thinking. Article 50 can be triggered; the 1972 European Communities Act requires parliamentary repeal, but it would be silly to refuse if under EU law we were already out.williamglenn said:
Article 50 can't be constitutionally triggered without a vote in parliament. No PM will win that vote unless they have a watertight plan for what happens next. There aren't enough anti-EU fanatics in parliament to vote for it blind, regardless of the referendum result.kle4 said:Any hint brexiting will not occur and May is done.
An unelected PM acting against the wishes of the majority in parliament on the basis of an advisory referendum with a thin majority would not be good enough. When you add in the interference of the monarch in the days before the vote, it would take us squarely into real constitutional crisis territory.
There is no reason to expect a constitutional crisis or for the Queen to be drawn into controversy.0 -
Nope, under the Tory rules if a leader loses a vote of confidence of MPs they can't stand as leader againwilliamglenn said:
If Leadsom won, could we see a similar influx of new Tory members to sure up her position in the event that she were challenged?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
I think Opinium and TNS did very well. They consistently (in the last few weeks) showed a very close race. Yougov and Survation performed adequately.JosiasJessop said:I'm amazed people are taking polls seriously.
If a company got one poll correct, the question has to be asked whether it was a false positive.
After the referendum and GE 2015, polls have to be taken with the same seriousness that we used to take subsamples. Still, they'e grist for the mill on here.
As an aside, is it 'grist to the mill' or 'grist for the mill'. I thought the latter, but the web seems to go for either.0 -
I've been busy cooking - but I hope people got on Tsonga at 11-1 after the second set....0
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Matt Singh for Bloomberg.PlatoSaid said:
I can't recall where I read it - but one psephologist analysis of the vote was 2.8m DNV did. And almost all of them chose Brexit.nunu said:
More like wwc can't be fucked to do polls, they get calls a thousand times a day about ppi and an accident that wasn't your fault, and tons of junk emails a day they ain't got time for that.MarqueeMark said:
Shy Leavers still being shy.....Jobabob said:Wales shows Regrexit - new poll
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
The samples are shit. Only loud lefties can be bothered to do polls no matter their demographics.
They were discounted by pollsters or not counted at all. It shows how a junk sample is very misleading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-04/the-2-8-million-non-voters-who-delivered-brexit0 -
The biggest issue with the EUref polls was a lack of past data that pollsters could refer to when producing their samples. But if their samples now indicate they have changed their minds, or have not changed them, that would be meaningful information.JosiasJessop said:I'm amazed people are taking polls seriously.
If a company got one poll correct, the question has to be asked whether it was a false positive.
After the referendum and GE 2015, polls have to be taken with the same seriousness that we used to take subsamples. Still, they'e grist for the mill on here.
As an aside, is it 'grist to the mill' or 'grist for the mill'. I thought the latter, but the web seems to go for either.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, under the Tory rules if a leader loses a vote of confidence of MPs they can't stand as leader againwilliamglenn said:
If Leadsom won, could we see a similar influx of new Tory members to sure up her position in the event that she were challenged?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-600000
Yes, we know how to do regicide properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, under the Tory rules if a leader loses a vote of confidence of MPs they can't stand as leader againwilliamglenn said:
If Leadsom won, could we see a similar influx of new Tory members to sure up her position in the event that she were challenged?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
Murray, having had a Scottish spell, refinding his Britishness....0
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I'm going to ask people in my office if they're voting for the next General or whatever election. Better than the pollsters.Sean_F said:
I think Opinium and TNS did very well. They consistently (in the last few weeks) showed a very close race. Yougov and Survation performed adequately.JosiasJessop said:I'm amazed people are taking polls seriously.
If a company got one poll correct, the question has to be asked whether it was a false positive.
After the referendum and GE 2015, polls have to be taken with the same seriousness that we used to take subsamples. Still, they'e grist for the mill on here.
As an aside, is it 'grist to the mill' or 'grist for the mill'. I thought the latter, but the web seems to go for either.0 -
Portugal need to come to the net more frequently and Tsonga desperately needs a goal. Confusing watching two things at once.0
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My wife's Ukranian, I get on fantastically with the in-laws as they speak almost no English and I speak almost no Ukranian or Russianrpjs said:
Ha! I moved to my wife's country and now live less than two hundred miles from my m-i-l rather than 3,500. Funnily enough though, in many respects I get on better with her than my wife does...MaxPB said:
My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.
Going to see them next week!0 -
Keiran Pedley
From recent YouGov on Labour members. 90% voted Remain. Labour members aren't even representative of Labour voters https://t.co/LYC8surYnk0 -
Doesn't look like it. Not a single spine left in the PLP.kle4 said:
They'd rather grab ankle than break away. Do any have the will?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-6000000 -
Sounds like my mate and his new Greek in-laws.Sandpit said:
My wife's Ukranian, I get on fantastically with the in-laws as they speak almost no English and I speak almost no Ukranian or Russianrpjs said:
Ha! I moved to my wife's country and now live less than two hundred miles from my m-i-l rather than 3,500. Funnily enough though, in many respects I get on better with her than my wife does...MaxPB said:
My gf is from Switzerland, one of the reasons I'd be happy for the government to ensure no more family reunions is so my prospective mother in law has no chance of coming to the UK.rpjs said:
I hope neither you nor any of your family ever fall in love with someone from another country then.
Going to see them next week!0 -
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
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Watching the value of banking shares plunge had me thinking
Would any PM, be it a Brexiter or Remainer, trigger article 50 if they were in a position that they had just had to bailout the banking system again?
Would they not have to 'wait for the economy to stablise' before pulling the trigger?0 -
We both know that isn't how the tories work; if Leadsom won before you could say "flexible principles" we would have Nabavi and TSE on here telling us that she was the "near perfect" leader.MarqueeMark said:
If Leadsom won, she'd be safe due to the outflow of existing Tory members, without need for new ones....williamglenn said:
If Leadsom won, could we see a similar influx of new Tory members to sure up her position in the event that she were challenged?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-600000 0 -
Another Scottish performance.Alanbrooke said:Murray being scottish
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Murray's on court behaviour has been getting worse for some time. He's turning into a real Drama Queen.0
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I agree - but the said she would - and it begs the obvious questions - nothing to do with bullying at all. She needs to grow up - no 10 is not the place to do it.AndyJS said:
Tax returns are an entirely private affair. I don't think anyone should be bullied into publishing them.IanB2 said:First Leadsom promises live on prime TV to publish her tax return. Then she qualifies this by saying only if she gets to the final two. Now she won't publish at all.
First she promises to submit under Article 50 the minute she is elected. Then she says she won't.
How can she ever hope to get away with such slippery a performance?0 -
Honest would have been not to respond at all.PlatoSaid said:
My CLP surveyed their members and I answered honestly if I were a genuine Labour voter rather than a cuckoo.kle4 said:
They'd rather grab ankle than break away. Do any have the will?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-600000
Be interesting to see what the results are.0 -
Hear hear. For fucks sake, if you want to turn this country around stop playing silly entryist games and try and honestly win the argument.matt said:
Honest would have been not to respond at all.PlatoSaid said:
My CLP surveyed their members and I answered honestly if I were a genuine Labour voter rather than a cuckoo.kle4 said:
They'd rather grab ankle than break away. Do any have the will?TheScreamingEagles said:This means the coup is dead ?
@stephenkb: I have been ringing round CLPs and the most negative picture for Corbyn would put it at 80-20 new joiners for him.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-600000
Be interesting to see what the results are.0
