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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more fr

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  • Jobabob said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    May needs to come clean on her health issues or apologise to the families of our fallen for her disrespect in nodding off during Cameron's statement.Either way she is clearly unfit to be PM.

    That's a pretty low comment.
    Driven by the same ideological purity as those who harass Labour women MPs that oppose Corbyn. The similarities between Leadsom and Corbyn are becoming more and more difficult to ignore.
    Indeed. Two sides of the same coin.
    No one is defined by those who post about them on the internet.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Cathy Newman's piece on the Tory race gives Leadsom a much better chance than the odds.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    rcs1000 said:

    Pauly said:

    Can we have a ban on Crabb jokes involving the word sideways or the STD?

    there was an vaguely innocent time when STD meant subscriber trunk dialling.
    And strictly speaking, crabs are not an STD either.
    Is that what you told your wife?
    That's what she told me anyway...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Saw some of Blair's statement today, and agree he's a fantastic actor. Shame he's a wretched politician.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    PlatoSaid said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think these extraordinary past couple of weeks are kind of like the final "death throes" of the whole Blair era.

    Brexit and Chilcot, painful and jarring as they are, will allow us to finally move on from the 1994-2016 era.

    Hopefully, from the ruins, will emerge a new, vibrant, kinder (and hopefully far less cynical) politics.

    He's still talking - I've watched Jeremy Kyle, read several Times articles, caught up with PB, fed the cat...
    Pah, I've developed a six pack while he was wittering on.
    Enveloped a six pack is probably nearer the truth. It also has the benefit of relieving the tedium.
  • May needs to come clean on her health issues or apologise to the families of our fallen for her disrespect in nodding off during Cameron's statement.Either way she is clearly unfit to be PM.

    Members of the House falling asleep after luncheon is not exactly unknown, so hardly a dreadful offence. Besides, Theresa May is not exactly in the first bloom of youth and many of us richer in years rather like a little nap in the early afternoon.

    Actually, are we sure she was asleep. She may have closed her eyes so as to be better able to concentrate on what was being said - another habit of older people, I do it frequently at concerts, the theatre, on trains and so forth.
    Yes and I always found that people made allowances for this sort of thing in the middle of complex negotiations and were happy to provide breaks and time outs to accommodate where necessary.
  • HenryGMansonHenryGManson Posts: 149
    Tennis update on earlier tip: Raonic beats QUERREY 3-1 in sets. First 2 sets from Raonic were exemplarary.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Yet another aspect of politics where new ground is being broken:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/750688219264606208

    I do think the Doctors have overplayed their hand on this one. If they don't like it we'll just get more in from Euro... oh wait !

    Their bargaining position is alot stronger post Brexit !
    27% rise in junior doctor applications in Scotland this year. And that was back in May. Next year might see another big jump.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. Manson, I regret not backing that. AH well, these things happen.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Saw some of Blair's statement today, and agree he's a fantastic actor. Shame he's a wretched politician.

    And a war criminal. The son of a bitch.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    F1: Sauber pull out of an in-season test at Silverstone to save cash:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36725692

    Not a good look for a team, but better than running completely out of money.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited July 2016
    Here's the smell of the blood still. All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:
    I wouldn't expect any open-ended property fund to do anything but close the doors. There's about £35billion in the sector iirc.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    surbiton said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Saw some of Blair's statement today, and agree he's a fantastic actor. Shame he's a wretched politician.

    And a war criminal. The son of a bitch.
    There is no basis for calling Blair a war criminal, though. Unless we are using those words in a sense completely divorced from their meaning under international law.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jilltreanor: Henderson "temporarily suspended" all trading in its £3.9bn property fund "to safeguard the interests of all investors". That's the fourth
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:
    Pension funds ? Who will suffer the most ? How did most of them vote in Brexit ref ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Federer/Cilic 2 sets all
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Mr. Manson, I regret not backing that. AH well, these things happen.

    He tipped the loser I think
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    edited July 2016
    Federer wins the fourth set - goes to the decider in the fifth!

    (Brilliant tie-break: Federer won a challenge to Hawkeye by a blade of grass! Cilic double-faulted)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Federer is a genius. Two sets all.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    edited July 2016

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.

    In May's case, given she's a Diabetic, there has to be a question mark as to how well she's able to do the job long term, though I think her Diabetes is very well controlled (you never hear stories about her having to go to hospital, etc.)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm hearing that Blair has been going on so long, Charlie Falconer has resigned in protest.

    The straw that broke the camel's back Sean.
    Tear up your next Labour leader betslips,

    Simba has confirmed he will run for leadership of the Labour party. He didn't vote for the Iraq war and reckons his chances are "better than 50-50" against Eagle.
    I suspect once people have found the relevant sections and look into what funds were allocated and what equipment was NOT provided for (especially around the areas of IED's and the lightweight transport) he might start to feel some heat himself
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Federer gets back to two sets all against Cilic after saving several match points.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Scott_P said:

    @jilltreanor: Henderson "temporarily suspended" all trading in its £3.9bn property fund "to safeguard the interests of all investors". That's the fourth

    Anyone owning investment property directly will be likely to get it on the market now to beat the rush to the exits. In an illiquid market it's best to panic first.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    Federer gets back to two sets all against Cilic after saving several match points.

    Huzzah!!
  • Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    Chuka lived the high life, so what? Everyone knows that anyway. He was a DJ in Manchester in the nineties for crying out loud. I can't understand why anyone should give a hen's toss what he does in his private life. I suspect he is over-worrying about this.

    Depends if what he did was legal.
    Perhaps it involved goats?
    Can't be worse than pigs. And other substances? Isn't there a certain very senior member of the front bench whose eyes are regularly glazed and pointing in different directions?
    ???
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I get that Djokavic is probably a better player than Federer if comparing like-for-like but this kind of stuff is why I consider Federer the best tennis player I have ever seen,
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Scott_P said:

    @jilltreanor: Henderson "temporarily suspended" all trading in its £3.9bn property fund "to safeguard the interests of all investors". That's the fourth

    Anyone owning investment property directly will be likely to get it on the market now to beat the rush to the exits. In an illiquid market it's best to panic first.
    All those funds have a cash/liquid buffer to handle day-to-day churn. However, they have a fiduciary duty not to let outflows force a fire-sale of their assets. They're a terrible product for anyone who doesn't have an appetite for the long-term.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    Half the people on this thread are older than she is.. let alone the site owner :-)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Alistair said:

    I get that Djokavic is probably a better player than Federer if comparing like-for-like but this kind of stuff is why I consider Federer the best tennis player I have ever seen,

    Best match of Wimbledon so far, for me.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SeanT said:
    February saw the biggest outflows from these funds since 2008, so this has been largely baked in since then.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.

    In May's case, given she's a Diabetic, there has to be a question mark as to how well she's able to do the job long term, though I think her Diabetes is very well controlled (you never hear stories about her having to go to hospital, etc.)
    I am a diabetic and I consider myself reasonably healthy. My father was a diabetic and he died at the age of 90. It is how you look after yourself that matters.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    Half the people on this thread are older than she is.. let alone the site owner :-)
    Is he too old to run PB?...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Alistair said:

    I get that Djokavic is probably a better player than Federer if comparing like-for-like but this kind of stuff is why I consider Federer the best tennis player I have ever seen,

    Fred Perry was rather good.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,871
    Blair's statement / Q&A in summary:

    Blair: "Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia"
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Will Hill offering some very attractively priced money here:

    @sharpeangle: Will George Osborne be Chancellor on January 1, 2017? 4/7 No; 5/4 Yes. #OsborneMustGo
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    GIN1138 said:

    I think these extraordinary past couple of weeks are kind of like the final "death throes" of the whole Blair era.

    Brexit and Chilcot, painful and jarring as they are, will allow us to finally move on from the 1994-2016 era.

    Hopefully, from the ruins, will emerge a new, vibrant, kinder (and hopefully far less cynical) politics.

    Maybe

    I remember all the labour supporters going on and on and on for years about the sinking of the Belgrano. Now this today makes that situation look utterly minuscule in comparison.

    Some of the Teflon has come away from Tone this afternoon.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Saw some of Blair's statement today, and agree he's a fantastic actor. Shame he's a wretched politician.

    And a war criminal. The son of a bitch.
    There is no basis for calling Blair a war criminal, though. Unless we are using those words in a sense completely divorced from their meaning under international law.
    Stop being an apologist.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    taffys said:

    Cathy Newman's piece on the Tory race gives Leadsom a much better chance than the odds.

    Her piece is based upon the premise that Brits like to support the underdog. Whilst this is very much the case in the likes of sport, I am not convinced that it is compatible with the Tories' desire to hold power.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    GIN1138 said:

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.
    After the two fortysomething PMs we've had in the recent past, someone of 60 is probably a better fit for a tough next few years. Someone bringing a couple of decades' experience on the front benches is what we need now, rather than another Young Turk.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.

    In May's case, given she's a Diabetic, there has to be a question mark as to how well she's able to do the job long term, though I think her Diabetes is very well controlled (you never hear stories about her having to go to hospital, etc.)
    I am a diabetic and I consider myself reasonably healthy. My father was a diabetic and he died at the age of 90. It is how you look after yourself that matters.
    As long as she keeps her marbles, it's hardly an issue. Ronnie managed pretty well.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Saw some of Blair's statement today, and agree he's a fantastic actor. Shame he's a wretched politician.

    And a war criminal. The son of a bitch.
    There is no basis for calling Blair a war criminal, though. Unless we are using those words in a sense completely divorced from their meaning under international law.
    Stop being an apologist.
    I think you have to like someone to be an apologist, no?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2016
    SeanT said:

    The fall in £ may be the one thing that saves London property. It's going to look extremely attractive to speculators, at some point, as sterling slides

    These funds are in commercial property, though. Very sensitive to the UK domestic economy.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    surbiton said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Saw some of Blair's statement today, and agree he's a fantastic actor. Shame he's a wretched politician.

    And a war criminal. The son of a bitch.
    There is no basis for calling Blair a war criminal, though. Unless we are using those words in a sense completely divorced from their meaning under international law.
    It's being used in the context of "we don't like him and don't like what he did". Was Saddam Hussein a war criminal? Yes. Blair, no. That's as good as it gets for him and his inner council though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it amplifies or even perpetuates small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW said:

    Alistair said:

    I get that Djokavic is probably a better player than Federer if comparing like-for-like but this kind of stuff is why I consider Federer the best tennis player I have ever seen,

    Fred Perry was rather good.
    Only those aged 104 and over like JackW have the benefit of seeing Fred Perry play.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Moses_ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think these extraordinary past couple of weeks are kind of like the final "death throes" of the whole Blair era.

    Brexit and Chilcot, painful and jarring as they are, will allow us to finally move on from the 1994-2016 era.

    Hopefully, from the ruins, will emerge a new, vibrant, kinder (and hopefully far less cynical) politics.

    Maybe

    I remember all the labour supporters going on and on and on for years about the sinking of the Belgrano. Now this today makes that situation look utterly minuscule in comparison.

    Some of the Teflon has come away from Tone this afternoon.
    He's still talking on Sky... I've made/eaten a late lunch, changed a litter tray, watched another tv show...

    I really don't want to hear any more excuses/self-justification/handwaving from him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    Will Hill offering some very attractively priced money here:

    @sharpeangle: Will George Osborne be Chancellor on January 1, 2017? 4/7 No; 5/4 Yes. #OsborneMustGo

    WHERE :O ?

    Can't find it :/
  • MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    SeanT said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    SeanT said:
    February saw the biggest outflows from these funds since 2008, so this has been largely baked in since then.
    The fall in £ may be the one thing that saves London property. It's going to look extremely attractive to speculators, at some point, as sterling slides
    If you think the £ will recover - and I wouldn't be surprised, once May is installed and starts to take charge - then you go for a liquid asset, not property. Particularly if there is selling pressure if people relocate away from Uk/London and BTLs start to exit the market.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    UK PM is a much harder gig than POTUS. PM is a hands on executive role plus a member of parliament. Whereas POTUS is more of a chairman of the board role - busy when there are fires to fight. Hence to my mind at least it is more important to have a young PM with the energy that the role demands, particularly in today's fast flowing media world when newspapers are running to keep up.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Sandpit said:


    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it magnifies small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.

    No, that's not right. Max is being over-dogmatic. As long as investors understand what the products are - and they damned well should do - they are a useful component as a small part (usually no more than 5% is recommended) of a long-term portfolio.
  • Scott_P said:

    @jilltreanor: Henderson "temporarily suspended" all trading in its £3.9bn property fund "to safeguard the interests of all investors". That's the fourth

    Anyone owning investment property directly will be likely to get it on the market now to beat the rush to the exits. In an illiquid market it's best to panic first.
    If it is an investment property you should be looking to hold it for the Long term. in which case now is definitely NOT the time to sell.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    Just 3 years younger than Blair who became PM 19 years ago.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
    All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    SeanT said:

    The fall in £ may be the one thing that saves London property. It's going to look extremely attractive to speculators, at some point, as sterling slides

    These funds are in commercial property, though. Very sensitive to the UK domestic economy.
    Which will also be open to foreign investment with a falling £. It's cheap now to invest in Britain then ride out the uncertainty.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Hill offering some very attractively priced money here:

    @sharpeangle: Will George Osborne be Chancellor on January 1, 2017? 4/7 No; 5/4 Yes. #OsborneMustGo

    WHERE :O ?

    Can't find it :/
    Just saw it on Twitter. Keep refreshing or ring in I guess.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited July 2016
    ''Her piece is based upon the premise that Brits like to support the underdog. Whilst this is very much the case in the likes of sport, I am not convinced that it is compatible with the Tories' desire to hold power. ''

    Its also based on the premise Leadsom is a keeper of the Thatcherite flame, and May called them the nasty party.

    Some of these people have long memories.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,072
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.
    After the two fortysomething PMs we've had in the recent past, someone of 60 is probably a better fit for a tough next few years. Someone bringing a couple of decades' experience on the front benches is what we need now, rather than another Young Turk.
    Seems to me the next few years are going to be so tough politically that it's quite likely another leader may be needed to take the Conservatives into the 2020 GE.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    UK PM is a much harder gig than POTUS. PM is a hands on executive role plus a member of parliament. Whereas POTUS is more of a chairman of the board role - busy when there are fires to fight. Hence to my mind at least it is more important to have a young PM with the energy that the role demands, particularly in today's fast flowing media world when newspapers are running to keep up.

    On the other hand the UK PM has a lot more scope to shape the way the executive operates to suit their capabilities. Brown effectively appointed Mandelson to act as the de facto PM towards the end while he took on the chairman role.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
    All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?
    As you say, panic. Some investors don't pay enough attention to the composition of their portfolios.

    There might be lots of selling going on elsewhere, it's just not reported until you get these kind of events, which attract the attention of even the doziest financial journalist.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    Cathy Newman's piece on the Tory race gives Leadsom a much better chance than the odds.

    If we assume that the Con membership voted Leave (Tim Montgomerie suggests 80:20) she should get a friendly hearing. And Ms May doesn't have a stella record.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.
    After the two fortysomething PMs we've had in the recent past, someone of 60 is probably a better fit for a tough next few years. Someone bringing a couple of decades' experience on the front benches is what we need now, rather than another Young Turk.
    In general I would add that someone of 60 is more likely to have the wisdom and confidence to be able to delegate effectively. Although with May that isn't entirely clear.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Sandpit said:


    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it magnifies small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.

    No, that's not right. Max is being over-dogmatic. As long as investors understand what the products are - and they damned well should do - they are a useful component as a small part (usually no more than 5% is recommended) of a long-term portfolio.
    So all these people panicking and leaving had <5% of their portfolio invested in the funds? Right...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    edited July 2016
    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.

    In May's case, given she's a Diabetic, there has to be a question mark as to how well she's able to do the job long term, though I think her Diabetes is very well controlled (you never hear stories about her having to go to hospital, etc.)
    I am a diabetic and I consider myself reasonably healthy. My father was a diabetic and he died at the age of 90. It is how you look after yourself that matters.
    This is true. Control of the condition and taking care of yourself are key.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    SeanT said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    SeanT said:
    February saw the biggest outflows from these funds since 2008, so this has been largely baked in since then.
    The fall in £ may be the one thing that saves London property. It's going to look extremely attractive to speculators, at some point, as sterling slides
    Why would any investor sell London property? It's been a one-way bet since about 1950. Even when it falls, it always recovers and reaches a new peak.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is Tony Blair favourite for the Best Actor BAFTA award ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.

    Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?

    No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.

    In May's case, given she's a Diabetic, there has to be a question mark as to how well she's able to do the job long term, though I think her Diabetes is very well controlled (you never hear stories about her having to go to hospital, etc.)
    I am a diabetic and I consider myself reasonably healthy. My father was a diabetic and he died at the age of 90. It is how you look after yourself that matters.
    This is true. Control of the condition and taking care of yourself are key.
    I can't believe that a PM's schedule makes control easy (little if any routine). But not much worse that the Home Office and it doesn't seem to have affected her role there.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it amplifies or even perpetuates small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.
    The risk factors to investment clearly state that they are illiquid and that have concentration risks not covered by their risk weighting. The risk warning I have a in a document on my desk clearly and obviously states that "withdrawals....may be deferred for up to 6 months".

    They provide a crucial part of funding CRE in the UK. Without them there would be far less recycling of development funds and far less development. As ever, its easy to say "close them down" without thinking about the consequences.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    Sandpit said:


    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it magnifies small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.

    No, that's not right. Max is being over-dogmatic. As long as investors understand what the products are - and they damned well should do - they are a useful component as a small part (usually no more than 5% is recommended) of a long-term portfolio.
    So all these people panicking and leaving had <5% of their portfolio invested in the funds? Right...</p>
    Richard isn't saying that. Property is like Longfellow's poem. When it's good, it's very, very good and when it's bad it's horrid. People get greedy and overexposed, particularly when overall investment returns are subdued.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Scott_P said:

    @jilltreanor: Henderson "temporarily suspended" all trading in its £3.9bn property fund "to safeguard the interests of all investors". That's the fourth

    Anyone owning investment property directly will be likely to get it on the market now to beat the rush to the exits. In an illiquid market it's best to panic first.
    If it is an investment property you should be looking to hold it for the Long term. in which case now is definitely NOT the time to sell.
    It depends on your view of the long term effects of Brexit. If UK property is facing a decade-long downturn you'd need a lot of patience to want to wait it out.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
    All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?
    Not just property funds, they are just where it shows up first. Other types of fund don't have to suspend withdrawals.

    If you want an anecdote I pulled out of p2p lending on Monday to put the money somewhere the govt guarantees it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2016

    Which will also be open to foreign investment with a falling £. It's cheap now to invest in Britain then ride out the uncertainty.

    Yes, but it's cheap for a reason: low business activity means rents fall, voids increase and tenants go bust. If you're an overseas investor it's a completely different market from buying a pad in Chelsea for your own family's use.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455

    Sandpit said:


    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it magnifies small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.

    No, that's not right. Max is being over-dogmatic. As long as investors understand what the products are - and they damned well should do - they are a useful component as a small part (usually no more than 5% is recommended) of a long-term portfolio.
    If it's a genuine long term investment, rather than short term leveraged speculation, then it's obviously a legitimate product - but if they're investing in illiquid assets yet allowing instant withdrawals, they're setting themselves up for a big hit when the asset prices start to fall.

    In fact, they don't even need to start actually falling, just a feeling that they might fall in the near future could be enough to trigger an exodus.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    PlatoSaid said:

    Moses_ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I think these extraordinary past couple of weeks are kind of like the final "death throes" of the whole Blair era.

    Brexit and Chilcot, painful and jarring as they are, will allow us to finally move on from the 1994-2016 era.

    Hopefully, from the ruins, will emerge a new, vibrant, kinder (and hopefully far less cynical) politics.

    Maybe

    I remember all the labour supporters going on and on and on for years about the sinking of the Belgrano. Now this today makes that situation look utterly minuscule in comparison.

    Some of the Teflon has come away from Tone this afternoon.
    He's still talking on Sky... I've made/eaten a late lunch, changed a litter tray, watched another tv show...

    I really don't want to hear any more excuses/self-justification/handwaving from him.
    There's a simple solution. It's an off button.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IGcom: #Equity markets tumble as fears over UK #housingmarket mount https://t.co/3grRYuoPcV
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Sandpit said:

    If it's a genuine long term investment, rather than short term leveraged speculation, then it's obviously a legitimate product - but if they're investing in illiquid assets yet allowing instant withdrawals, they're setting themselves up for a big hit when the asset prices start to fall.

    In fact, they don't even need to start actually falling, just a feeling that they might fall in the near future could be enough to trigger an exodus.

    Yes, but that is made clear in the prospectus and any even remotely competent financial adviser will warn you of that. No-one should be putting money in a property fund which they might need to get out quickly. That doesn't mean the funds don't have a place.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:


    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it magnifies small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.

    No, that's not right. Max is being over-dogmatic. As long as investors understand what the products are - and they damned well should do - they are a useful component as a small part (usually no more than 5% is recommended) of a long-term portfolio.
    So all these people panicking and leaving had <5% of their portfolio invested in the funds? Right...</p>
    Richard isn't saying that. Property is like Longfellow's poem. When it's good, it's very, very good and when it's bad it's horrid. People get greedy and overexposed.
    Betting on politics can be like that!
  • IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
    All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?
    As posted earlier by someone else-outflows have been high for a while for some funds.
    Even if we had voted Remain many people felt the commercial London market was very much at or around a cyclical high.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    taffys said:

    Cathy Newman's piece on the Tory race gives Leadsom a much better chance than the odds.

    Grasping at straws!

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.

    Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.

    30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.

    If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
    yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.

    :wink:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    MikeL said:

    I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.

    Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.

    30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.

    If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.

    Gove is the least suitable of the three candidates.

    I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    Ishmael_X said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
    All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?
    Not just property funds, they are just where it shows up first. Other types of fund don't have to suspend withdrawals.

    If you want an anecdote I pulled out of p2p lending on Monday to put the money somewhere the govt guarantees it.
    The day OF the referendum my IFA rang to tell me to tell him to take all our money OUT of property pdq.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it magnifies small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.

    No, that's not right. Max is being over-dogmatic. As long as investors understand what the products are - and they damned well should do - they are a useful component as a small part (usually no more than 5% is recommended) of a long-term portfolio.
    If it's a genuine long term investment, rather than short term leveraged speculation, then it's obviously a legitimate product - but if they're investing in illiquid assets yet allowing instant withdrawals, they're setting themselves up for a big hit when the asset prices start to fall.

    In fact, they don't even need to start actually falling, just a feeling that they might fall in the near future could be enough to trigger an exodus.
    The whole point of property investment is that you ride out short-term downturns for long-term gain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Federer serving for the match
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).

    The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeL said:

    I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.

    Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.

    30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.

    If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.

    Leadsom looks to be "socially conservative" enough to be able to pick up kipper votes.
  • Scott_P said:

    @jilltreanor: Henderson "temporarily suspended" all trading in its £3.9bn property fund "to safeguard the interests of all investors". That's the fourth

    Anyone owning investment property directly will be likely to get it on the market now to beat the rush to the exits. In an illiquid market it's best to panic first.
    If it is an investment property you should be looking to hold it for the Long term. in which case now is definitely NOT the time to sell.
    It depends on your view of the long term effects of Brexit. If UK property is facing a decade-long downturn you'd need a lot of patience to want to wait it out.
    Fair point but if you believe that Uk is headed for a decade long down turn as a result of Brexit then you should have offloaded your investment before the vote as clearly the risk/reward profile would not have been good enough bearing in mind how close the vote was going to be.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Masterful performance by Federer to come back to win in 5 sets.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016

    MikeL said:

    I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.

    Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.

    30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.

    If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.

    Leadsom looks to be "socially conservative" enough to be able to pick up kipper votes.
    What a dreadful thought — that the Conservative Party might actually be led by someone with socially conservative views.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it magnifies small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.

    No, that's not right. Max is being over-dogmatic. As long as investors understand what the products are - and they damned well should do - they are a useful component as a small part (usually no more than 5% is recommended) of a long-term portfolio.
    If it's a genuine long term investment, rather than short term leveraged speculation, then it's obviously a legitimate product - but if they're investing in illiquid assets yet allowing instant withdrawals, they're setting themselves up for a big hit when the asset prices start to fall.

    In fact, they don't even need to start actually falling, just a feeling that they might fall in the near future could be enough to trigger an exodus.
    The whole point of property investment is that you ride out short-term downturns for long-term gain.
    For the average person the whole point of property is that it is the only way they have to invest with leverage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    Sandpit said:

    If it's a genuine long term investment, rather than short term leveraged speculation, then it's obviously a legitimate product - but if they're investing in illiquid assets yet allowing instant withdrawals, they're setting themselves up for a big hit when the asset prices start to fall.

    In fact, they don't even need to start actually falling, just a feeling that they might fall in the near future could be enough to trigger an exodus.

    Yes, but that is made clear in the prospectus and any even remotely competent financial adviser will warn you of that. No-one should be putting money in a property fund which they might need to get out quickly. That doesn't mean the funds don't have a place.
    I'm on the phone to Will Hills trying to sell Osbornes !

    I accept that my property investments (Debt not equity) related are probably going to be somewhat stodgy for the forseeable future, though https://savingstream.co.uk?a=11425248 better to be in the resi/debt side over the commercial/equity right now I think...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Federer wins fifth set after losing first two sets and being three match points down to Cilic.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    Masterful performance by Federer to come back to win in 5 sets.

    His Wimbledon title to lose, I reckon.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Ishmael_X said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:
    It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
    EXCELLENT comment

    First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA

    (disclosure -i work in the property sector)
    All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?
    Not just property funds, they are just where it shows up first. Other types of fund don't have to suspend withdrawals.

    If you want an anecdote I pulled out of p2p lending on Monday to put the money somewhere the govt guarantees it.
    The day OF the referendum my IFA rang to tell me to tell him to take all our money OUT of property pdq.
    I dumped my shares in housebuilders PDQ. Stiil in a cash position, but going bargain hunting soon.

    Its an ill wind that blows no good, but I wouldn't touch property at the moment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    edited July 2016

    Sandpit said:

    If it's a genuine long term investment, rather than short term leveraged speculation, then it's obviously a legitimate product - but if they're investing in illiquid assets yet allowing instant withdrawals, they're setting themselves up for a big hit when the asset prices start to fall.

    In fact, they don't even need to start actually falling, just a feeling that they might fall in the near future could be enough to trigger an exodus.

    Yes, but that is made clear in the prospectus and any even remotely competent financial adviser will warn you of that. No-one should be putting money in a property fund which they might need to get out quickly. That doesn't mean the funds don't have a place.
    Yes, that makes sense, providing they're sold properly and the risks pointed out before committing.

    I have memories of the Dubai property market in '05-'08, where residential off-plan prices were rising 10% a quarter and banks were lending with a 10% deposit. People were borrowing money from anywhere to invest, double your money every three months! Of course by September '08 they were at unsustainable London or NY prices and corrected in some cases 50% down from the peak. A lot of people had got very greedy, ending up holding expensive unfinished or delayed apartments when the financial music stopped playing.

    Of course, eight years later the absolute prices are now higher than the previous 2008 peak, so anyone who could afford to stay in has done okay and most have still done well. Property is a good long term investment, provided you never have to sell it in a hurry.

    Regulations here are much tighter here now, in terms of loan to value lending criteria, use of escrow for off-plan developments, regulation on estate agents and stamp duty increases.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeL said:

    I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.

    I think The Sun has gone out of their way to put a bad spin on things. The Baby P quote came from the end of a post about marriage.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    I don't see anything controversial in that. I don't know the origin of their adoption one.
This discussion has been closed.