@MrHarryCole: MP on Leadsom: "she's Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt". Gasps when she replied "with trade envoys" to "how will she negotiate new deal with EU" Q.
She should have said that we've already had offers from NZ for the use of their trade negotiators, and would be seeking similar arrangements with our other allies.
@MrHarryCole: MP on Leadsom: "she's Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt". Gasps when she replied "with trade envoys" to "how will she negotiate new deal with EU" Q.
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?
They might do. Businesses are people too, if that makes sense. If they were purely rational actors, everyone would be based in Singapore (#1 in the World Bank's ease of doing business index).
If you look at the UK compared to likely EU destinations using the same index:
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?
Its about confidence and certainty. Most of the announcements are just bargaining chips like how HSBC has a "review" every three years, they are trying to get the best deal for themselves in the negotiations.
Well, yes, but the End of Days could actually be next Thursday. About tea time.
This is different. I think a lot of REMAINIANS, in their panic, might lend Labour their vote just once. To reverse the referendum
If we're in the EEA by the next election and still in the single market, most people aren't going to care about EU membership. Only the raging federalists will and there aren't many of them. Even someone like Bobajob who is pro-EU is only really in it for the economic benefits and would accept the EEA compromise. The next election will be fought on the basis of jobs, welfare, NHS and defence/foreign policy as always.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.
Won't Labour get crushed in the North if they stand on a pro-Europe platform?
Nope. They would lose some seats. But they would gain lots of marginals in the SE.
And the amount of northern seats they would lose is overstated. Ukip would have to change their entire ethos to reap the big rewards. And don't underestimate the power of FPP.
Unlikely to gain marginals in the south IMO. The areas that voted remain outside of London are rich Tory shires. They will vote Tory unto the end of days.
Well, yes, but the End of Days could actually be next Thursday. About tea time.
This is different. I think a lot of REMAINIANS, in their panic, might lend Labour their vote just once. To reverse the referendum
That would be the idea. Just a shot in the dark, but with the Corbynites in charge of the party, Labour have nothing left to lose.
@MrHarryCole: MP on Leadsom: "she's Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt". Gasps when she replied "with trade envoys" to "how will she negotiate new deal with EU" Q.
She should have said that we've already had offers from NZ for the use of their trade negotiators, and would be seeking similar arrangements with our other allies.
That would certainly have been a better reply imo – I’ll need to see a bit more of her during the hustings to see how quick she is on her feet.
No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.
Absolutely agreed with that, though the chances of getting 200,000 cousin brides in a single year from EU nations is probably quite low!
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Is there a reference for property being worth less?
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
In NE England property prices fell in 2008 and they have yet to recover to any meaningful degree. I expect they will fall further now.
@SamCoatesTimes: Extraordinary text messages emerges from Nick Boles, campaign chief of Michael Gove urging May supporters back him https://t.co/ckAFOnghs9
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.
@SamCoatesTimes: Extraordinary text messages emerges from Nick Boles, campaign chief of Michael Gove urging May supporters back him https://t.co/ckAFOnghs9
This is not the best time to be openly promoting an establishment stitch-up.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.
20 years after Brexit, I think the UK could easily be as prosperous and contented as Switzerland. Probably a happier country, with better integration.
It's just a question of how much shit we have to eat, on the way there. Will we suffer a lost generation, like Ireland?
If it's fully out then it is going to involve a lot of hard years.
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Is there a reference for property being worth less?
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
It's very hard to see the population of the UK generally, or London specifically, falling in the next 10-20 years. But, it's not even a 40 year timescale. London property prices have been rising since the 1800s.
Why not?
I see it as quite a likely consequence of Brexit.
We have a natural increase of about 200,000 a year. The number of deaths will rise from now on, but I couldn't see it exceeding the number of births any time within the next ten years.
We have net immigration of about 300,000 a year. That number will fall after Brexit, I expect, but not to nothing.
Net migration may rise as we could have more 'expats 'returning and fewer people retiring abroad. not great news for the NHS.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
Thanks - I didn't know that. But if they got the goods part even outside of the EEA, why didn't they get the services part?
The view from Germany, at least the politics of Brexit according to my CDU party contact.
Wha
On He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Your German friend talks sense - it's what I've been saying for two weeks.
Immigration into the UK is going to plummet, anyway. There won't be any work for young Slovaks.
So take EEA ASAP (saving the City) and talk about reform of Free Movement over time.
The key is to be honest with the people. PM May, if it is her, has to come out and say all this. Be direct. Say "We believe immigration will now swiftly fall, this gives us breathing space to work out a long term solution without destroying the economy".
People feel they've been lied to about migration (and they have). It's one reason they are so angry. Honesty will defuse this.
To misquote the Queen: Give me 3 reasons why immigration will fall if we move to EEA (& stability ensues).
Economic slowdown Perceived hostility towards migrants
Can't think of a third, but those two will be enough to bring net migration down to below 200k, which is probably enough.
No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.
Cousin marriage should simply be illegal. I'm bewildered why it isn't. By law you cannot smoke inside a public building, yet people are allowed to get married in a way guaranteed to increase the number of severely handicapped children.
Prohibit.
Its cultural inint. No culture should be seen to be superior. Two, maybe three years ago the BBC did a programme about this problem. It concluded with a father of a severely disabled child saying, "It was the will of Allah", nothing to do with him marrying his cousin at all.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.
Cry me a river.
Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.
Brexit gets better and better.
That's if your kids haven't been forced to emigrate, because the economy is a wasteland.
If things carry on the way they are my kids WILL be forced to emigrate because they will face the choice of being their employers b**** due to a £500,000 debt for a two bedroom terrace or handing so much of their salary over to rentiers that they would be no worse off it was an economic wasteland.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.
Won't Labour get crushed in the North if they stand on a pro-Europe platform?
Nope. They would lose some seats. But they would gain lots of marginals in the SE.
And the amount of northern seats they would lose is overstated. Ukip would have to change their entire ethos to reap the big rewards. And don't underestimate the power of FPP.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.
Cry me a river.
Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.
Brexit gets better and better.
In a few years time your kids will be thinking of emigrating as there will be no jobs left in this country . They will also be blaming those who voted for Brexit including their father .
If things carry on the way they are (ie pre referendum) my kids WILL be forced to emigrate because they will face the choice of being their employers b**** due to a £500,000 debt for a two bedroom terrace or handing so much of their salary over to rentiers that they would be no worse off it was an economic wasteland.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.
To be honest, though, the City is MIFID II, CRD iv and Solvency II compliant (more so than almost any other European financial sector) - whilst the loss of passporting hurts at the margins, it would take actively protectionist legislation from the EU to block cross-border trading based on equivalence. That's a bit different to not quite agreeing on EEA status.
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?
It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
After the way Cameron play the "renegotiation", it would be a shock to their system....
In a renegotiation such as this, they have to realise that if they shaft us we will take them down with us - or they WILL shaft us.
Basically the negotiation equivalent of the nuclear MAD deterrent.
Yes. In fact we might not even have to make the threat. The EU is also in a perilous economic situation. A badly handled Brexit, that fucks the British economy, will seriously endanger them as well - especially Italy, Greece etc. Confidence could desert all of Europe, not just London
So all sides will, however reluctantly, be forced to work towards a compromise where the City and the UK do alright.
That's my optimistic alter ego talking there.
I think the message to the EU is, when in a greenhouse, it is inadvisable to throw stones.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
They have managed very well , an economy led by the 2nd largest % of foreign residents in the world ( after Australia ) .
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.
20 years after Brexit, I think the UK could easily be as prosperous and contented as Switzerland. Probably a happier country, with better integration.
It's just a question of how much shit we have to eat, on the way there. Will we suffer a lost generation, like Ireland?
If it's fully out then it is going to involve a lot of hard years.
Leaving the Single Market really WOULD be an act of national self harm. Hugely destabilising. And for what? To prevent Europeans coming here, who won't be coming anyway, thanks to the inevitable recession?
No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.
Absolutely agreed with that, though the chances of getting 200,000 cousin brides in a single year from EU nations is probably quite low!
Sorry I thought you were talking about overall migration when you said 200,000. That from the EU is already less than that isn't it.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
After today, they have zero chance.
There never was much hope, but surely the rebels can find one MP to stand against Corbyn?
I thought Corbyn's speech was very good. Well balanced.
Only caught a short clip but managed to follow the text on Sparrow’s G’live – I thought it a measured response all things considered, especially due to the hyped claims of his desire to bandy ‘war criminal’ around.
As I said the other day, Corbyn doesn't do personal stuff. Not for IDS. Not for Blair. The leftie view is that you always go for the system that produces disasters (in this case the love of invading people to change their regimes), and don't let yourself be distracted by arguing about individuals.
The problem with that is that the media really only like personal stuff. If Corbyn had shouted "Blair is a war crimnal" he'd have been on every front page. As it is, he'll be on page 7. But he doesn't care.
It's like being against tax avoidance and spending your energies trying to harass Amazon - even if you win the argument and Amazon is ashamed and changes its policies, you've actually made no progress on the underlying problem.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.
20 years after Brexit, I think the UK could easily be as prosperous and contented as Switzerland. Probably a happier country, with better integration.
It's just a question of how much shit we have to eat, on the way there.
Quite so. And will we gag on it, to complete the rather girzzly metaphor. Not certain by any means, and lets work to make it not so.
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?'
France should be hugely attractive for bankers with its 80% tax rate.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
Honestly, I don't care who they pick. I'd like a Labour party with some actual practical policies and a coherent approach. At the moment, it's like looking at a series of T-shirt slogans, all just hanging on a rack any old how.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
Thanks - I didn't know that. But if they got the goods part even outside of the EEA, why didn't they get the services part?
Apparently the people didn't want it as they thought it would mean losing the secrecy of their banking system.
@SamCoatesTimes: Extraordinary text messages emerges from Nick Boles, campaign chief of Michael Gove urging May supporters back him https://t.co/ckAFOnghs9
Disgraceful - this must be it for him. time for Charlie Falconer to stand down.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Fine for you, but to date a lot many still seem to be worried about a stitch up on Brexit if May wins, so it seems prudent to ask the members which type of Brexit they want. Your party though, even if I'd like to hear detailed ideas on both on what type of Brexit deal they are after.
No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.
Absolutely agreed with that, though the chances of getting 200,000 cousin brides in a single year from EU nations is probably quite low!
Sorry I thought you were talking about overall migration when you said 200,000. That from the EU is already less than that isn't it.
Yes, I was. Obviously May is going to have to fix non-EU migration at the same time. I would look at banning family reunions as a starter.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.
20 years after Brexit, I think the UK could easily be as prosperous and contented as Switzerland. Probably a happier country, with better integration.
It's just a question of how much shit we have to eat, on the way there. Will we suffer a lost generation, like Ireland?
If it's fully out then it is going to involve a lot of hard years.
Leaving the Single Market really WOULD be an act of national self harm. Hugely destabilising. And for what? To prevent Europeans coming here, who won't be coming anyway, thanks to the inevitable recession?
I will eat my hat if we leave the single market
I will eat my hat if we keep FoM and the number of people coming here from countries where the minimum wage is less than a pound an hour whilst ours rises to £9 per hour plus benefits actually falls.
I do struggle to understand the number of people, especially the older ones, who will not look wider than their own interest, or that of their "set", in the short term.
The FTSE is the line up top, the ISEQ is at the bottom.
Well, we shouldn't feel good about that. The UK economy is ~12x the size of the Irish and we're about 20% of their exports. We could pull them under quite easily.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
After today, they have zero chance.
There never was much hope, but surely the rebels can find one MP to stand against Corbyn?
I thought Corbyn's speech was very good. Well balanced.
Only caught a short clip but managed to follow the text on Sparrow’s G’live – I thought it a measured response all things considered, especially due to the hyped claims of his desire to bandy ‘war criminal’ around.
As I said the other day, Corbyn doesn't do personal stuff. Not for IDS. Not for Blair. The leftie view is that you always go for the system that produces disasters (in this case the love of invading people to change their regimes), and don't let yourself be distracted by arguing about individuals.
The problem with that is that the media really only like personal stuff. If Corbyn had shouted "Blair is a war crimnal" he'd have been on every front page. As it is, he'll be on page 7. But he doesn't care.
It's like being against tax avoidance and spending your energies trying to harass Amazon - even if you win the argument and Amazon is ashamed and changes its policies, you've actually made no progress on the underlying problem.
Yes I would agree with that.
What are your thoughts about his apologising for the entire PLP when outside the chamber?
@SamCoatesTimes: Extraordinary text messages emerges from Nick Boles, campaign chief of Michael Gove urging May supporters back him https://t.co/ckAFOnghs9
Disgraceful - this must be it for him. time for Charlie Falconer to stand down.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Now hang on, you're not looking at the wider picture. I'm on a May/Leadsom final and the bet's void if there's no members' vote.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Tut tut.
You've read too many SeanT posts
No. I've just had enough of Gove being a student-politico-twat.... More than enough.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
If Leadsom felt she was in with little chance in a membership ballot now, then a better option would be to withdraw should she get to the final ballot, with one proviso. Namely, that if Article 50 had not been invoked within 6 months she would launch a renewed leadership challenge to May. The Conservative membership might be taken in by May now, but would be better able to judge six months hence whether she has lived up to her promises. It would put a lot of pressure on May to deliver in the meantime.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Tut tut.
You've read too many SeanT posts
No. I've just had enough of Gove being a student-politico-twat.... More than enough.
There's just 24hrs to go. Then the membership decides. Act in haste, repent at leisure.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
If Leadsom felt she was in with little chance in a membership ballot now, then a better option would be to withdraw should she get to the final ballot, with one proviso. Namely, that if Article 50 had not been invoked within 6 months she would launch a renewed leadership challenge to May. The Conservative membership might be taken in by May now, but would be better able to judge six months hence whether she has lived up to her promises. It would put a lot of pressure on May to deliver in the meantime.
Philip Rucker Trump says he raised $26 million for camp & $25 mill for RNC/Trump Victory Fund in June. Not Clinton level, but huge improvement from May.
No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.
Absolutely agreed with that, though the chances of getting 200,000 cousin brides in a single year from EU nations is probably quite low!
Sorry I thought you were talking about overall migration when you said 200,000. That from the EU is already less than that isn't it.
Yes, I was. Obviously May is going to have to fix non-EU migration at the same time. I would look at banning family reunions as a starter.
Me too, Mr. Max. Those families in Africa clubbing together to pay the people traffickers to get their boy into the UK may not be doing it for wholly altruistic reasons.
Of course we also need to reform our benefits system to one based on a contributory principle. However, that was tried in the early 1980s and the courts threw it out.
The FTSE is the line up top, the ISEQ is at the bottom.
Your link doesn't work. But I would point out that very few of the big businesses in Ireland are quoted on the Irish stock exchange - they are either the subsidiaries of multinationals, or are private.
Putting out a statement was probably necessary, but pointless. If Gove gets in the final two everyone will assume it was done.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Tut tut.
You've read too many SeanT posts
No. I've just had enough of Gove being a student-politico-twat.... More than enough.
There's just 24hrs to go. Then the membership decides. Act in haste, repent at leisure.
The membership will overwhelmingly back May. It really isn't a contest.
It's so bloody obvious May is going to win this, stop dicking about and let's have a Prime Minister tomorrow night. I don't give a shit that I don't get to vote. Just do it and move on to the next phase of Brexit - whatever that is.
Now hang on, you're not looking at the wider picture. I'm on a May/Leadsom final and the bet's void if there's no members' vote.
In addition to that I've hedged off with Leadsom next out.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
And how has Switzerland got on since then? An economic wasteland? I don't think so. Financial collapse? Nope a year or so back I was reading how they were taking measures to hold the value of their currency down.
Yes, but they also signed a very wide ranging bilateral free trade deal with the EU a few years later while their financial services market is different to ours and has been built on the basis of being a tax haven and specifically not being in the EU. Ours is quite the opposite.
The Swiss financial services industry exists almost solely to offer private wealth management services to high net worths globally.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
TBH, a male/female vote-off would be just as tedious polyfilla column inches.
Political journalists churn out too much lazy trite vapid bilge.
Blair is in deep shit. His performance today was meaningless.
Wowsers. He didn't share? Words fail.
Mind-boggling. He really did take us to war on a lie. He lied to his own Cabinet, in effect. As well as everyone else in the country.
The Attorney General's opinion about the war's legality was based on Blair assuring him that Saddam had made further material breaches of the UN resolution. Chilcott couldn't find any evidence of those further breaches. I don't see how that can be anything other than taking us to war on a lie.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
Arf – whomever is in the final ballot, the media will find an angle to big it up.
While I personally think it a bit soon for much Bremorse, I actually respect someone standing up now and detailing their position in that way, since they're likely to face anger from both sides.
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.
Yeah, I've never quite understood why the UK counts students as immigrants. Here in the US, aliens admitted as residents (as a opposed to visitors) are firmly divided into two categories, 'immigrant' and 'non-immigrant'. 'Immigrants' are people with permanent residence (Green Cards). 'Non-immigrants' are everyone else: those on any sort of visa that doesn't grant permanent residence.
Whilst 'non-immigrants' might or might not be able to change between different temporary statuses such as student, press, guest-worker, treaty trader etc they do not get permanent residency unless they qualify for it, and that's not easy to get. Typically you need to marry a local or be sponsored by an employer as an extremely high-skilled / "essential" worker, and even then many permanent residents have to serve a two-year "conditional" period before being granted true permanent residence.
Only people classed as 'immigrants' are counted as immigrants, as only they can stay permanently in the US. Everyone else has to go home sooner or later.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
Just goes to show you don't need mandatory all-women shortlists.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
TBH, a male/female vote-off would be just as tedious polyfilla column inches.
Political journalists churn out too much lazy trite vapid bilge.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
Just goes to show you don't need mandatory all-women shortlists.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
Just goes to show you don't need mandatory all-women shortlists.
AWS seems to have added nothing to Labour bar a temporary smug factor.
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?'
France should be hugely attractive for bankers with its 80% tax rate.
France income tax is very similar to the UK (they got rid of the supertax):
5.2. French Income Tax Rates Income Share Tax Rate Between €9,701 - €26,791 14% Between €26,792 - €71,826 30% Between €71,827 - €152,108 41% Above €151,108 45%
Also, your allowances stack according to how many people are in your family. If you have a wife and two kids, you need to earn more than EUR600,000 before you get to 45%, against just GBP100,000 in the UK.
For lordy's sake calm down dear. I have always been a remainer to the core but running around like Corporal Jones really doesn't do anyone any good. I am sure you realise there's plenty of people out there using brexit as an excuse for bad news that was already in the pipeline.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
TBH, a male/female vote-off would be just as tedious polyfilla column inches.
Political journalists churn out too much lazy trite vapid bilge.
@SeanT To paraphrase that Bremorse article: "I'm now feeling guilty about having voted Leave, which makes me a good person, so no one can keep harping on about the subject I feel guilty about."
You've got to admit, that's an absolutely awesome line in every way and on every level!
It is a good line - and to be quite frank, even in saying it it didn't sound all that much like Clarke thought it a criticism, at least not a big one, and it sets up that response well.
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?'
France should be hugely attractive for bankers with its 80% tax rate.
France income tax is very similar to the UK (they got rid of the supertax):
5.2. French Income Tax Rates Income Share Tax Rate Between €9,701 - €26,791 14% Between €26,792 - €71,826 30% Between €71,827 - €152,108 41% Above €151,108 45%
Also, your allowances stack according to how many people are in your family. If you have a wife and two kids, you need to earn more than EUR600,000 before you get to 45%, against just GBP100,000 in the UK.
It's an incredibly family friendly tax system.
Is that assuming only one earner? Otherwise that is extremely generous!
@MrHarryCole: Leadsom just refused to publish her tax return at 1922 hustings. But claimed MPs "could look at it individually but it is very boring."
What does she not want party members in the shires to see?
More to the point, on the Andrew Marr show she said, after a bit of wibbling, that she would. 'Yes' was her final answer, without qualification. She's just not very good, that is the truth of the matter.
Is that "not very good" why she was better than all the 6 REMAINers that were put up at the 3v3 debates? But WTF do I know eh? 130/1 on Andrea in March... before she stepped forward and took a bigger role in the LEAVE campaign. I actually favour Mrs May as PM, just to see if (for once) the establishment have got it right. But all this endless bitching and whining about Andrea from people who cannot accept they were forecasting the wrong referendum result. Some went on and on about how 60%+ REMAIN was nailed on. On 24 April 2016 4:08PM Mr Meeks you recommended "Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago..."
While I personally think it a bit soon for much Bremorse, I actually respect someone standing up now and detailing their position in that way, since they're likely to face anger from both sides.
I liked the Hague article on Monday. People might be happy now, remorseful in 2017, happy in 2019 and so on.
Personally, while it's not remorse, I can't feel pleased when the referendum has clearly caused others so much distress.
I vividly remember conceding that Remain had won on the 20th June and then sitting in my study gobsmacked in wee small hours of the 24th and thinking..."Fuck, this is really going to upset the apple cart. What have we done!"
That was partly selfish. Every cloud, every drop of rain, every sparrow that falls will be laid at the Brexit door, from now until eternity. Remain would have been so much more peaceful.
Is anybody here thinking about the US presidential election market yet?
I'm a mere neophyte, but my thoughts so far are as follows.
* It's unlikely to be like EUref night. Probably the only way it could be is if all the serious polls in the last week give the same side a decent majority in the electoral college, but the exit polls in the swing states where voting closes earliest show it as 50-50. Having better models than the pollsters would then be at a premium, but difficult.
* The big betting question is whether there's likely to be a sizeable swing in the polls before the vote.
* The sizes of the smallest 10 Dem majorities (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota) correlate most with
- the relative size of the black population (negatively) - not finishing high school (negatively) - low income (positively - especially the first quintile)
Obviously the Dem majority is not the same as the Dem vote share, but still, this is interesting. Few black people will vote for Trump, but he would benefit from stoking a white-black polarisation.
Many people on low incomes did finish high school. (Or they are black or Hispanic.) How well placed is this billionaire to get votes from people who are on low incomes? Across the board, he isn't. Where he is excellently placed is to pick up the uneducated white vote, among both those on low incomes and those who aren't. And that demographic overlaps a lot with the white racist vote and with those white people who are amenable to being induced into racism. Who are f***king stupid, basically.
* Trump has so far spent very little, far less than Clinton.
* Trump has used Twitter extremely competently as a major medium for his campaigning, mostly to insult rivals very crudely.
* His lack of open and warm support from many big Rep donors and political figures doesn't serve him too badly. If he wins the Rep nomination, as it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he will, I can't honestly see the National Rifle Association and the usual suspects not backing him.
* There have been a few stories, but Trump hasn't upset the Jewish lobby yet. If he does, we'll know it - the Anti-Defamation League will have his guts for garters. When he and Clinton go to Israel, it's going to be interesting to watch how their meetings with Benjamin Netanyahu get presented and with what soundbites.
* Assuming the Zionists don't squash him, I reckon Trump's chances depend on how well he performs in the TV debates. Television is uneducated people's favourite medium. I can imagine that his score in opinion polls will increase during that time. At his current price of 4.3 he may be a buy.
Thoughts? As I said, I'm a neophyte...
Is it a tradition for presidential candidates to go to israel? And if so, why?
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
TBH, a male/female vote-off would be just as tedious polyfilla column inches.
Political journalists churn out too much lazy trite vapid bilge.
Not as much as the vapid bilge posted on here.
But you aren't paid for it. Unless you're a Mossad agent.
Philip Rucker Trump says he raised $26 million for camp & $25 mill for RNC/Trump Victory Fund in June. Not Clinton level, but huge improvement from May.
He's doing well with what he's spending using Twitter. I wonder how much TV he needs prior to the TV debates?
@MrHarryCole: Leadsom just refused to publish her tax return at 1922 hustings. But claimed MPs "could look at it individually but it is very boring."
What does she not want party members in the shires to see?
More to the point, on the Andrew Marr show she said, after a bit of wibbling, that she would. 'Yes' was her final answer, without qualification. She's just not very good, that is the truth of the matter.
Is that "not very good" why she was better than all the 6 REMAINers that were put up at the ITV 3v3 debates? But WTF do I know eh? 130/1 on Andrea in March... before she stepped forward into the front of the LEAVE campaign. I actually favour Mrs May as PM, just to see if (for once) the establishment have got it right.
The only problem I have with a May/Leadsom final is we'll be drowned in commentariat articles about how the 'sisterhood' are showing the way, women uber alles etc.
TBH, a male/female vote-off would be just as tedious polyfilla column inches.
Political journalists churn out too much lazy trite vapid bilge.
I'm honestly of the view that, so long as it is democratically, done, there is nothing inherently wrong with the country changing its mind. But what is genuine proof of that, as it certainly isn't opinion polls alone, and if we Remained and then a new EU proposal came out, what do you know, Brexit is more popular again.
Comments
If you look at the UK compared to likely EU destinations using the same index:
UK: 6th
Eire: 17th
France: 27th
Netherlands: 28th
Belgium: 43rd
Germany: 15th
Italy (ha ha ha) 44th
We're pretty business friendly. But some companies will want to be based in an EU country proper.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1400650/wikipedia-questions-arise-for-leadsom-as-she-faces-increasing-pressure-from-theresa-may-to-release-her-tax-return/
Either way it does not bode well for her.
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_577d0176e4b0c9460801ceb2?edition=uk&rksjcnabjzwvims4i
The problem with that is that the media really only like personal stuff. If Corbyn had shouted "Blair is a war crimnal" he'd have been on every front page. As it is, he'll be on page 7. But he doesn't care.
It's like being against tax avoidance and spending your energies trying to harass Amazon - even if you win the argument and Amazon is ashamed and changes its policies, you've actually made no progress on the underlying problem.
'Have I misunderstood this?
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?'
France should be hugely attractive for bankers with its 80% tax rate.
The FTSE is the line up top, the ISEQ is at the bottom.
You've read too many SeanT posts
I do struggle to understand the number of people, especially the older ones, who will not look wider than their own interest, or that of their "set", in the short term.
What are your thoughts about his apologising for the entire PLP when outside the chamber?
9. In my view (as an ex government lawyer, 2003-5): had the qualified advice been shared at the time, UK would not have gone to war.
Never gonna happen.
Falconer is going nowhere.
Trump says he raised $26 million for camp & $25 mill for RNC/Trump Victory Fund in June. Not Clinton level, but huge improvement from May.
Of course we also need to reform our benefits system to one based on a contributory principle. However, that was tried in the early 1980s and the courts threw it out.
See http://www.ise.ie/Market-Data-Announcements/Indices/ISEQ-20-Constituents/ for the full list (there are just 20!) of the Irish benchmark.
If Leadsom goes through, she must run !
Now, will he face justice?
Political journalists churn out too much lazy trite vapid bilge.
Whilst 'non-immigrants' might or might not be able to change between different temporary statuses such as student, press, guest-worker, treaty trader etc they do not get permanent residency unless they qualify for it, and that's not easy to get. Typically you need to marry a local or be sponsored by an employer as an extremely high-skilled / "essential" worker, and even then many permanent residents have to serve a two-year "conditional" period before being granted true permanent residence.
Only people classed as 'immigrants' are counted as immigrants, as only they can stay permanently in the US. Everyone else has to go home sooner or later.
Recruitment on -isms is a crap idea.
It's an incredibly family friendly tax system.
But WTF do I know eh? 130/1 on Andrea in March... before she stepped forward and took a bigger role in the LEAVE campaign.
I actually favour Mrs May as PM, just to see if (for once) the establishment have got it right. But all this endless bitching and whining about Andrea from people who cannot accept they were forecasting the wrong referendum result. Some went on and on about how 60%+ REMAIN was nailed on.
On 24 April 2016 4:08PM Mr Meeks you recommended "Post the referendum, and assuming a reasonably decisive Remain win (which is looking an increasingly safe assumption - you did get on the 60%-65% band at 9/1 a few days ago..."
Personally, while it's not remorse, I can't feel pleased when the referendum has clearly caused others so much distress.
I vividly remember conceding that Remain had won on the 20th June and then sitting in my study gobsmacked in wee small hours of the 24th and thinking..."Fuck, this is really going to upset the apple cart. What have we done!"
That was partly selfish. Every cloud, every drop of rain, every sparrow that falls will be laid at the Brexit door, from now until eternity. Remain would have been so much more peaceful.
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-07-05/poll-shows-welsh-voters-now-support-eu-membership/
*innocent face*
Interesting.
I'm honestly of the view that, so long as it is democratically, done, there is nothing inherently wrong with the country changing its mind. But what is genuine proof of that, as it certainly isn't opinion polls alone, and if we Remained and then a new EU proposal came out, what do you know, Brexit is more popular again.