It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
EXCELLENT comment
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can. Still a big IF though.
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.
Housing market in Sussex doesn't seem to be too bad. A smallish 3 bedroomed bungalow at the top of my road went on the market at the back end of last week. It sold today for just under half a million. Three other similar bungalows in the immediate area have gone for the same sort of price.
It is lunacy. Property prices in the South East, let alone London have to come down.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
Did none of that occur to you until the walk back from the polling station? jeez
Yes, it did. And I thought it was unlikely. I also thought the Brexiteers would have an obvious plan to announce on Day 1 - move to EEA in the interim, etc, to prevent exactly this kind of mood contagion.
My personal confidence began to falter when they said No, we haven't got a plan, don;t be silly, the government should have had a plan. And then we discovered the government didn't have a plan either.
They all just fucking disappeared for five days, on both sides. The only one who manned up was Mark Carney.
It is in danger of turning into a total catastrophe.
Oddly enough the Irish papers today headline how well the BoE and the Treasury (cough, Osborne) are managing the disruption and are calming the markets with a coherent stability plan. You can say it's eye of the hurricane stuff but they can only manage what's in front of them. Only once we have an answer to "where next" will we see whether this is good policy or eye of the storm.
Had the Government come up with plan it would have either guaranteed that the economy was plunged into a recession, angered the vast majority of those who voted to leave the EU or been instantly laughed out of Brussels. Either way, Leavers – who have bundled up their paradoxes into a big, unsolvable mess and hospital-passed it to the Government – would have placed the blame on the doorstep of Number 10. So, no, of course there isn’t a plan nor can there be one until this country holds a general election and the parties lay out their visions for Brexit.
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
EXCELLENT comment
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can. Still a big IF though.
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.
Housing market in Sussex doesn't seem to be too bad. A smallish 3 bedroomed bungalow at the top of my road went on the market at the back end of last week. It sold today for just under half a million. Three other similar bungalows in the immediate area have gone for the same sort of price.
It is lunacy. Property prices in the South East, let alone London have to come down.
The problemmis for overseas BTL landlords whose rental incomes have just collapsed. If the mortgage lets say is in in Sing dollars then they are totally stuffed. It happened with Poland
How did Theresa May get on with Lib Dem ministers in the Home Office? Innocent face.
Actually Lynne Featherstone has some good things to say about our Theresa (whilst confirming the general picture that she can be quite difficult). Lynne did persuade her to run with the equal marriage bill, after all. And backed her on FGM.
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Is there a reference for property being worth less?
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
Given population growth trends and urbanisation trends it's difficult to see any scenario in which London property prices don't grow in the long term, however, if those turn out to be wrong then there may be some stagnation as landlords begin to cash out on basis of poor rental yields.
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Is there a reference for property being worth less?
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
From the 1970s until the present day is, not coincidentally, the period over which London established itself as the pre-eminent "global city". If it were to lose that distinction, the impact on property prices would be considerable.
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Corbyn: "I now apologise sincerely on behalf of my party for the disastrous decision to go to war in Iraq in March 2003." #chilcot
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
EXCELLENT comment
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can. Still a big IF though.
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.
They are about to discover how important London is to the British economy.
Its not like London generates large amounts of the UKs tax revenue or anything.. "Property sales in London are generating nearly half of all stamp duty revenue raised in England and Wales, according to data that show the impact of last year’s hike in rates for the most valuable homes." https://next.ft.com/content/e814d3f4-3780-11e5-bdbb-35e55cbae175
Your article highlights the fact that Osborne's stamp duty changes had already started to effect the high end housing market and property sales. That and the BTL tax changes was inevitably going to distort the London market, but that is what Osborne and Carney wanted....
My goodness, PB has turned to economic punditry. Somebody lash Sean to his bed to stop him leaping from a high building.
My view is that nobody knows a bloody thing about what is happening. It's just too damned complicated.
It's a scary world and the thundering herd are blundering about based on short term sentiment. If the Italian banks or Grexit III kick off, the pound might rise. Or it might fall because speculators want to see if Carney blinks. We'll likely have a rate cut next week. Let's see what happens then.
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?
It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
I disagree with Sean T and others at the end of the last thread. Blair is not broken by Chilcott. He's handling himself well. I'm not commenting on the arguments or the report but Blair's response.
Yes, it's a masterful response (didn't see the start of it).
I only saw the start, when he was almost in tears - and looked utterly ruined (as everyone agreed)
Had to turn it off because it was simultaneously boring and distressing
Does anyone else recall that scene in the West Wing when Alan Alda defused a scandal, by hosting an eternal press conference, that literally exhausts all interest?
Seems to be Blair's tactic. I don't think it will work, tho. Too much anger out there.
Yup - a 'till they drop' press conference. Age old technique. Bore the journos into submission...
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Corbyn: "I now apologise sincerely on behalf of my party for the disastrous decision to go to war in Iraq in March 2003." #chilcot
Theresa May is being wise. If she is to win - and she very probably is - she needs to command not just most of the Parliamentary party but all of it, given the tiny majority that the Conservatives hold. She will not do that without a mandate from the members as well as from MPs.
She should cut out the jiggery pokery and face whoever those MPs who are unconvinced by her think she should face. She should have the easy beating of either of them.
Commendable and true. If Theresa wins fairly, as it looks as though she will, I will (and I'm sure she'll be thrilled about this) give her a chance. I fear any hopes I have of her not continuing down a relentlessly authoritarian and statis path with be short-lived, but I'll give her a chance.
Whether Osborne gets a top job or his marching orders will be a useful early bellweather.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
Or the city makes a mint from volatile markets and are as happy as can be.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
But the population is bigger and the houaing stock still short
May needs to come clean on her health issues or apologise to the families of our fallen for her disrespect in nodding off during Cameron's statement.Either way she is clearly unfit to be PM.
Actually, are we sure she was asleep. She may have closed her eyes so as to be better able to concentrate on what was being said - another habit of older people, I do it frequently at concerts, the theatre, on trains and so forth.
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?
It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
After the way Cameron play the "renegotiation", it would be a shock to their system....
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
From the 1970s until the present day is, not coincidentally, the period over which London established itself as the pre-eminent "global city". If it were to lose that distinction, the impact on property prices would be considerable.
Exactly right. London's swings through time have been remarkable. London's peak population, until a few months time, I believe, was in 1939. It suffered greatly during wartime and wasn't a popular place to live immediately post-war. There was a recovery during the swinging 60s but by the 1970s central London was depopulating and the trend was to move out to the Home Counties as soon as you had enough money to afford the commuting. At some point in the 1990s this went into reverse and London's boom was accelerated by the global attention of 2012. When I first came to London in the 1980s somewhere like Hackney was a sink borough with horrendous socio-economic indicators and a loony left council. Today Hackney is full of middle class gentrifiers and younger hipsters on the edge of tech city - and the Borough just chalked up the authority with the UK's maximum Remain vote. Such trends may continue, or just as possibly go into reverse, if the Chinese and Russian big money disappears along with all the young Eastern Europeans who currently keep the city running.
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Is there a reference for property being worth less?
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
It's very hard to see the population of the UK generally, or London specifically, falling in the next 10-20 years. But, it's not even a 40 year timescale. London property prices have been rising since the 1800s.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.
Cry me a river.
Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.
Wel Corbyns speech finally shoots the Labour Party fox.
For years the left wing labour supporters have blamed the Tories and everyone else for the war because they voted for it. That vote has now been exposed to have been given in good faith but based on inaccuracies and mistakes by the then Labour government.From now on this war is owned entirely by Tony, the PLP and the Labour party in general .
Well done Labour ....you not only oversaw the great crash of 2008 you also oversaw the greatest failure in foreign policy for 60 years ( the LOTO own words)
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
Coming back to the EU ref i have just got the turnout figures per ward for the London Borough of Sutton. The remarkable thing is the 86% return of postals. St Helier ward and Wandle Valley normally turnout nearer 35%
London Borough of Sutton Referendum on th UK membership of the European Union - 23 June 2016 Ward Polling Station Electorate Postal Voters Total Electorate Total Votes Cast Polling Station Turnout Worcester Park 7,111 1,537 8,648 5327 74.91% Nonsuch 6,540 1,505 8,045 5068 77.49% Stonecot 6,702 1,459 8,161 5012 74.78% Cheam 6,221 1,838 8,059 4760 76.52% Sutton North 6,033 1,336 7,369 4411 73.11% Sutton West 6,107 1,557 7,664 4582 75.03% Sutton Central 6,247 1,323 7,570 4320 69.15% Sutton South 5,237 1,645 6,882 3624 69.20% Belmont 5,885 1,639 7,524 4391 74.61% St Helier 6,521 1,306 7,827 4117 63.13% Wandle Valley 6,676 1,170 7,846 4398 65.88% The Wrythe 6,228 1,435 7,663 4480 71.93% Carshalton Central 6,318 1,430 7,748 4948 78.32% Carshalton South & Clockhouse 6,178 1,532 7,710 4844 78.41% Wallington North 6,678 1,407 8,085 5001 74.89% Wallington South 6,329 1,447 7,776 4559 72.03% Beddington North 6,345 1,437 7,782 4639 73.11% Beddington South 6,504 1,417 7,921 4555 70.03% Postal Votes 0 26,420 23,594 89.30% Total Electorate 113,860 26,420 140,280 106,630 76.01%
Yes on the night IDS was saying in Essex some wwc council estates that have turnout of 30-40% in GE were seeing turnout of 80%. Dunno if on the day or postal.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
But the population is bigger and the houaing stock still short
errr which is why prices will inevitably rise even if they have a brief dip............. But point i would make is that London's market has less owners as a %, than the rest of the UK. It is therefore less affected by temporary dips although the chattering classes that meet SeanT at dinner may be aghast and depressed and easily pannicked.
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?
It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
After the way Cameron play the "renegotiation", it would be a shock to their system....
In a renegotiation such as this, they have to realise that if they shaft us we will take them down with us - or they WILL shaft us.
Basically the negotiation equivalent of the nuclear MAD deterrent.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.
Cry me a river.
Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.
Brexit gets better and better.
That's if your kids haven't been forced to emigrate, because the economy is a wasteland.
Given population growth trends and urbanisation trends it's difficult to see any scenario in which London property prices don't grow in the long term, however, if those turn out to be wrong then there may be some stagnation as landlords begin to cash out on basis of poor rental yields.
To my mind, the biggest negative for the Prime London property market is the age curve of owners. In places like St John's Wood (Hello Charles!), the vast majority of properties are owned by people in the 55 to 65 age group, who bought their homes 20 years ago for one fifth of the current price.
Those people's biggest asset is their home and these markets are very thin. I want to put this in context for a second: in the whole of London around 1,500 houses sold for more than £2m last year. Probably only 3% of the homes in St John's Wood transacted. If that were to move to 5-6%, it would flood the market; especially if that happens at the same time that the investment banks willingness to put up expat investment bankers in homes for £15,000/month diminishes.
Prime London was over-priced before. It has needed a correction. I am not convinced that foreigner speculators will step into the gap; history suggests they prefer to buy assets that "always go up".
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
But the population is bigger and the houaing stock still short
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
Mr Glenn, after 2008 the last time property prices moved down, I remember reading that they would have to drop by about 40% to return to the long term trend. They didn't, HMG stepped in to keep the bubble going. Osborne has done the same over the past few years. This is the economics of the mad house.
Any asset bubble has to burst and the long it is kept in being, especially by HMG getting involved, the worse the resultant crash will be. House prices are now so totally out of kilter when compared to earnings they have become pernicious. Economically and socially they are unsustainable.
In 1983 I married and we bought a three bedroomed house in Rustington, West Sussex, on my income alone and I was on a bit above median income at the time. It wasn't a fantastic house but it was nice enough, you could raise a family in it. That is now totally impossible for a young couple today. Take for example the youngish couple I posted about the other week - paying £1500 a month rent but don't earn enough to get a mortgage to buy, at least not in West Sussex.
So if property prices do crash 50% or more, you will find me cheering. I'll will, on paper, be hugely out of pocket but youngsters will be better placed and the country will be better for that.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
Honestly, I don't care who they pick. I'd like a Labour party with some actual practical policies and a coherent approach. At the moment, it's like looking at a series of T-shirt slogans, all just hanging on a rack any old how.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.
Cry me a river.
Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.
Brexit gets better and better.
In a few years time your kids will be thinking of emigrating as there will be no jobs left in this country . They will also be blaming those who voted for Brexit including their father .
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Is there a reference for property being worth less?
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
It's very hard to see the population of the UK generally, or London specifically, falling in the next 10-20 years. But, it's not even a 40 year timescale. London property prices have been rising since the 1800s.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
Or the city makes a mint from volatile markets and are as happy as can be.
ETFS Physical Gold (PHGP) up 2.42% today. Up 40.54% in 6 months. I am glad it made up 30% of my portfolio.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
Honestly, I don't care who they pick. I'd like a Labour party with some actual practical policies and a coherent approach. At the moment, it's like looking at a series of T-shirt slogans, all just hanging on a rack any old how.
Same here. Just cannot see Corbyn being shifted - the momentum has been lost re. The coup and I don't think Corbyn cares about having the crappest shadow cabinet of all time. The party is now a cult.
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.
This is a breeze by comparison.
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.
A far smaller % of the population live in a home that they own in London now than the late 1980s.
So it will disproportionately hammer landlords, many of whom might well lose their main residence if it is not firewalled from their BTL interests.
Cry me a river.
Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.
Brexit gets better and better.
In a few years time your kids will be thinking of emigrating as there will be no jobs left in this country . They will also be blaming those who voted for Brexit including their father .
There will be no jobs until the LibDems are ince again at the heart of government.. Oh and by the way Mark the only Lib Dem borough in london voted by quite a large margin for Brexit. Good governance there then..
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.
EXCELLENT comment
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?
Not just property funds, they are just where it shows up first. Other types of fund don't have to suspend withdrawals.
If you want an anecdote I pulled out of p2p lending on Monday to put the money somewhere the govt guarantees it.
The day OF the referendum my IFA rang to tell me to tell him to take all our money OUT of property pdq.
Quite - hasn't commercial property outlook been on decline for a few months now? Been dreadful down here (large office blocks, high st shops etc) for at least a year....
The view from Germany, at least the politics of Brexit according to my CDU party contact.
What people are underestimating is that for the first time the UK has voted against the consensus according to him. Basically until now the UK has been seen as the single most stable nation in the world, responsible government and an electorate willing to deliver it by the ballot box. We recently shunned Ed Miliband and told Brown to do one as well. When Major became a liability the public looked elsewhere, before that the Tory party deposed Thatcher when she became a bit despotic and Scotland also voted down independence recently. Through a number of different factors including FPTP, stable politics, the unwritten constitution and small c conservatism among the people we've never really delivered the establishment a bloody nose. It has made the UK a safe-haven for investors and migrants in the same way Germany, with its past, never could be.
He thinks that if the UK leaves the single market then the bigger damage will be to our reputation for a "safety-first" approach to life which will put investors off the UK over the long term as the people won't be trusted to hold the line.
On where the blame lies, he puts at the door of Junker, Merkel and Schauble and he thinks that a lot of politicians in Germany feel this way too. He also blames Dave for trying to give the UK special status within the EU on migration when he should have gone out and built a coalition to reform free movement and shift it back to labour terms rather than the individual terms. He feels the EU may be forced into this anyway because Germany is beginning to feel the heat of mass migration within the EU (+600k last year according to him).
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
I asked him what he thought on our next PM. He didn't know Leadsom, but thought we would be mad to pick Gove. He said that other EU leaders will loathe having to deal with him after the "dishonourable" way in which the EU referendum was won. He hopes it is May because she will get a fair hearing and idiots in the commission won't try and block a deal like they would for Gove.
He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Still we've solved the Housing Crisis, the same way the Black Death solved the wages crisis
Point of order, Mr. T, the Black Death caused wages to increase. Attempts by the ruling classes to keep wages down to pre-crisis levels were largely unsuccessful and were a driver behind the social unrest in England during the latter half of the 14th century as well as the final collapse of the feudal system (which was actually a bad thing, in the short term, for the people at the bottom end).
The view from Germany, at least the politics of Brexit according to my CDU party contact.
What people are underestimating is that for the first time the UK has voted against the consensus according to him. Basically until now the UK has been seen as the single most stable nation in the world, responsible government and an electorate willing to deliver it by the ballot box. We recently shunned Ed Miliband and told Brown to do one as well. When Major became a liability the public looked elsewhere, before that the Tory party deposed Thatcher when she became a bit despotic and Scotland also voted down independence recently. Through a number of different factors including FPTP, stable politics, the unwritten constitution and small c conservatism among the people we've never really delivered the establishment a bloody nose. It has made the UK a safe-haven for investors and migrants in the same way Germany, with its past, never could be.
He thinks that if the UK leaves the single market then the bigger damage will be to our reputation for a "safety-first" approach to life which will put investors off the UK over the long term as the people won't be trusted to hold the line.
On where the blame lies, he puts at the door of Junker, Merkel and Schauble and he thinks that a lot of politicians in Germany feel this way too. He also blames Dave for trying to give the UK special status within the EU on migration when he should have gone out and built a coalition to reform free movement and shift it back to labour terms rather than the individual terms. He feels the EU may be forced into this anyway because Germany is beginning to feel the heat of mass migration within the EU (+600k last year according to him).
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
I asked him what he thought on our next PM. He didn't know Leadsom, but thought we would be mad to pick Gove. He said that other EU leaders will loathe having to deal with him after the "dishonourable" way in which the EU referendum was won. He hopes it is May because she will get a fair hearing and idiots in the commission won't try and block a deal like they would for Gove.
He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Thanks Max, that's very interesting and useful. If we're not careful we end up drinking our own bathwater on here, so always nice to get another perspective.
Were you working on how much of the UK economy was directly bound up with the EU, or am I mis-remembering? My back of the fag packet calculation was ~15% of the economy and ~12% of the workforce. Any thoughts?
@MrHarryCole: Leadsom just refused to publish her tax return at 1922 hustings. But claimed MPs "could look at it individually but it is very boring."
What does she not want party members in the shires to see?
More to the point, on the Andrew Marr show she said, after a bit of wibbling, that she would. 'Yes' was her final answer, without qualification.
She's just not very good, that is the truth of the matter.
She just doesn't have the experience of working at this level. Give her a few years in the Cabinet (plus a voice coach - and lose those bloody silly specs) and she may be ready.
@MrHarryCole: Leadsom just refused to publish her tax return at 1922 hustings. But claimed MPs "could look at it individually but it is very boring."
What does she not want party members in the shires to see?
More to the point, on the Andrew Marr show she said, after a bit of wibbling, that she would. 'Yes' was her final answer, without qualification.
She's just not very good, that is the truth of the matter.
Richard – the thought of her and Corbyn leading the two main parties is enough to keep any sensible moderate awake all night, every night. I hope the Tory Party make the right choice. The country deserves much better than that pair.
Is anybody here thinking about the US presidential election market yet?
I'm a mere neophyte, but my thoughts so far are as follows.
* It's unlikely to be like EUref night. Probably the only way it could be is if all the serious polls in the last week give the same side a decent majority in the electoral college, but the exit polls in the swing states where voting closes earliest show it as 50-50. Having better models than the pollsters would then be at a premium, but difficult.
* The big betting question is whether there's likely to be a sizeable swing in the polls before the vote.
* The sizes of the smallest 10 Dem majorities (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota) correlate most with
- the relative size of the black population (negatively) - not finishing high school (negatively) - low income (positively - especially the first quintile)
Obviously the Dem majority is not the same as the Dem vote share, but still, this is interesting. Few black people will vote for Trump, but he would benefit from stoking a white-black polarisation.
Many people on low incomes did finish high school. (Or they are black or Hispanic.) How well placed is this billionaire to get votes from people who are on low incomes? Across the board, he isn't. Where he is excellently placed is to pick up the uneducated white vote, among both those on low incomes and those who aren't. And that demographic overlaps a lot with the white racist vote and with those white people who are amenable to being induced into racism. Who are f***king stupid, basically.
* Trump has so far spent very little, far less than Clinton.
* Trump has used Twitter extremely competently as a major medium for his campaigning, mostly to insult rivals very crudely.
* His lack of open and warm support from many big Rep donors and political figures doesn't serve him too badly. If he wins the Rep nomination, as it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he will, I can't honestly see the National Rifle Association and the usual suspects not backing him.
* There have been a few stories, but Trump hasn't upset the Jewish lobby yet. If he does, we'll know it - the Anti-Defamation League will have his guts for garters. When he and Clinton go to Israel, it's going to be interesting to watch how their meetings with Benjamin Netanyahu get presented and with what soundbites.
* Assuming the Zionists don't squash him, I reckon Trump's chances depend on how well he performs in the TV debates. Television is uneducated people's favourite medium. I can imagine that his score in opinion polls will increase during that time. At his current price of 4.3 he may be a buy.
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?
It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
After the way Cameron play the "renegotiation", it would be a shock to their system....
In a renegotiation such as this, they have to realise that if they shaft us we will take them down with us - or they WILL shaft us.
Basically the negotiation equivalent of the nuclear MAD deterrent.
Yes. In fact we might not even have to make the threat. The EU is also in a perilous economic situation. A badly handled Brexit, that fucks the British economy, will seriously endanger them as well - especially Italy, Greece etc. Confidence could desert all of Europe, not just London
So all sides will, however reluctantly, be forced to work towards a compromise where the City and the UK do alright.
That's my optimistic alter ego talking there.
That is what I am thinking/hoping Sean. The post from MaxPB is very interesting. If he is right, and Juncker is leaving in September, it is likely that May will be able to do a decent deal. That that deal will look and feel very similar to EU membership to most people is barely worth worrying about. Confidence and stability is needed.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
After today, they have zero chance.
There never was much hope, but surely the rebels can find one MP to stand against Corbyn?
I thought Corbyn's speech was very good. Well balanced.
So do I
Shame he's loopy on everything else. I think when Labour replace him they keep him in the cupboard and bring him out every time Labour feck up something else. He would be a very busy person that's for sure.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
After today, they have zero chance.
There never was much hope, but surely the rebels can find one MP to stand against Corbyn?
I thought Corbyn's speech was very good. Well balanced.
Only caught a short clip but managed to follow the text on Sparrow’s G’live – I thought it a measured response all things considered, especially due to the hyped claims of his desire to bandy ‘war criminal’ around.
How did Theresa May get on with Lib Dem ministers in the Home Office? Innocent face.
Actually Lynne Featherstone has some good things to say about our Theresa (whilst confirming the general picture that she can be quite difficult). Lynne did persuade her to run with the equal marriage bill, after all. And backed her on FGM.
Mr. Bob, with the tidings from Italy, this economic malaise could certainly encourage both sides to do a prompt deal, simply due to mutual self-interest.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's the point though, if you want a candidate with no obvious skeletons in the cupboard (in terms of those that detract from your ideological purity in the eyes of the hard left) it helps not to have been around for all that long. He'll be well enough known by the end of the campaign, should he stand.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.
Thanks Max, that's very interesting and useful. If we're not careful we end up drinking our own bathwater on here, so always nice to get another perspective.
Were you working on how much of the UK economy was directly bound up with the EU, or am I mis-remembering? My back of the fag packet calculation was ~15% of the economy and ~12% of the workforce. Any thoughts?
Yes, he always has some interesting observations, I hadn't really thought about the change in the political dynamics too much until he pointed it out.
It is something I'm working on, our old figure was 9.6% of the economy, but I don't think that is correct so I'm reviewing it myself which means days of trawling through tariff data to strip out re-exports. My guess is that we're looking at about 11-12% of GDP, possibly a bit lower.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.
Won't Labour get crushed in the North if they stand on a pro-Europe platform?
If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Is there a reference for property being worth less?
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.
I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.
It's very hard to see the population of the UK generally, or London specifically, falling in the next 10-20 years. But, it's not even a 40 year timescale. London property prices have been rising since the 1800s.
Why not?
I see it as quite a likely consequence of Brexit.
We have a natural increase of about 200,000 a year. The number of deaths will rise from now on, but I couldn't see it exceeding the number of births any time within the next ten years.
We have net immigration of about 300,000 a year. That number will fall after Brexit, I expect, but not to nothing.
Is anybody here thinking about the US presidential election market yet?
I'm a mere neophyte, but my thoughts so far are as follows.
* It's unlikely to be like EUref night. Probably the only way it could be is if all the serious polls in the last week give the same side a decent m * His lack of open and warm support from many big Rep donors and political figures doesn't serve him too badly. If he wins the Rep nomination, as it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he will, I can't honestly see the National Rifle Association and the usual suspects not backing him.
* There have been a few stories, but Trump hasn't upset the Jewish lobby yet. If he does, we'll know it - the Anti-Defamation League will have his guts for garters. When he and Clinton go to Israel, it's going to be interesting to watch how their meetings with Benjamin Netanyahu get presented and with what soundbites.
* Assuming the Zionists don't squash him, I reckon Trump's chances depend on how well he performs in the TV debates. Television is uneducated people's favourite medium. I can imagine that his score in opinion polls will increase during that time. At his current price of 4.3 he may be a buy.
Thoughts? As I said, I'm a neophyte...
I might be making too much of a comparison of Brexit but the polls could be down weighting people who don't vote wrongly, as we saw with Brexit the wwwc on the estates turned out for the first time since the 80's. Trump could enthuase them. I don't think Hilary is going to enthuase anyone.
The view from Germany, at least the politics of Brexit according to my CDU party contact.
Wha
On where the blame lies, he puts at the door of Junker, Merkel and Schauble and he thinks that a lot of politicians in Germany feel this way too. He also blames Dave for trying to give the UK special status within the EU on migration when he should have gone out and built a coalition to reform free movement and shift it back to labour terms rather than the individual terms. He feels the EU may be forced into this anyway because Germany is beginning to feel the heat of mass migration within the EU (+600k last year according to him).
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
I asked him what he thought on our next PM. He didn't know Leadsom, but thought we would be mad to pick Gove. He said that other EU leaders will loathe having to deal with him after the "dishonourable" way in which the EU referendum was won. He hopes it is May because she will get a fair hearing and idiots in the commission won't try and block a deal like they would for Gove.
He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Your German friend talks sense - it's what I've been saying for two weeks.
Immigration into the UK is going to plummet, anyway. There won't be any work for young Slovaks.
So take EEA ASAP (saving the City) and talk about reform of Free Movement over time.
The key is to be honest with the people. PM May, if it is her, has to come out and say all this. Be direct. Say "We believe immigration will now swiftly fall, this gives us breathing space to work out a long term solution without destroying the economy".
People feel they've been lied to about migration (and they have). It's one reason they are so angry. Honesty will defuse this.
To misquote the Queen: Give me 3 reasons why immigration will fall if we move to EEA (& stability ensues).
Still we've solved the Housing Crisis, the same way the Black Death solved the wages crisis
Point of order, Mr. T, the Black Death caused wages to increase. Attempts by the ruling classes to keep wages down to pre-crisis levels were largely unsuccessful and were a driver behind the social unrest in England during the latter half of the 14th century as well as the final collapse of the feudal system (which was actually a bad thing, in the short term, for the people at the bottom end).
That's what I meant. A third of the nation died so hourly rates went up.
If our GDP falls by 30% we could see the same population decline, through emigration.
Put the kettle on, Mr. T, it's time for you to have a nice cup of tea and perhaps a scone with clotted cream and jam.
If our entire trade with the EU dried up (no imports or exports) it would affect maybe 15% of the economy (see upthread ). The chances of our economy dropping by 30% is therefore close to zero.
In a few years time your kids will be thinking of emigrating as there will be no jobs left in this country . They will also be blaming those who voted for Brexit including their father .
So what are you claiming Mark? That Brexit must inevitably result in national ruin? That therefore leaving the EU was impossible and we were chained to it regardless of how well/badly it developed in the future?
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
Did none of that occur to you until the walk back from the polling station? jeez
The operative word is 'could'. On that basis, anything could happen. Aliens. Plagues of newts. Gove and Boris setting up home together. Who knows? I think this is Sean's fifth or sixth panic and the referendum is less than a fortnight old .
At least he doesn't come across as hoping the economy crashes because it would prove him right, unlike certain posters I could name.
The view from Germany, at least the politics of Brexit according to my CDU party contact.
Wha
On where the blame lies, he puts at the door of Junker, Merkel and Schauble and he thinks that a lot of politicians in Germany feel this way too. He also blames Dave for trying to give the UK special status within the EU on migration when he should have gone out and built a coalition to reform free movement and shift it back to labour terms rather than the individual terms. He feels the EU may be forced into this anyway because Germany is beginning to feel the heat of mass migration within the EU (+600k last year according to him).
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
I asked him what he thought on our next PM. He didn't know Leadsom, but thought we would be mad to pick Gove. He said that other EU leaders will loathe having to deal with him after the "dishonourable" way in which the EU referendum was won. He hopes it is May because she will get a fair hearing and idiots in the commission won't try and block a deal like they would for Gove.
He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Your German friend talks sense - it's what I've been saying for two weeks.
Immigration into the UK is going to plummet, anyway. There won't be any work for young Slovaks.
So take EEA ASAP (saving the City) and talk about reform of Free Movement over time.
The key is to be honest with the people. PM May, if it is her, has to come out and say all this. Be direct. Say "We believe immigration will now swiftly fall, this gives us breathing space to work out a long term solution without destroying the economy".
People feel they've been lied to about migration (and they have). It's one reason they are so angry. Honesty will defuse this.
To misquote the Queen: Give me 3 reasons why immigration will fall if we move to EEA (& stability ensues).
Economic slowdown Perceived hostility towards migrants
Can't think of a third, but those two will be enough to bring net migration down to below 200k, which is probably enough.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.
I've just Googled Owen Smith. If that's really Labour's best hope then..... Jesus MOFO Christ.
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?
It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
After the way Cameron play the "renegotiation", it would be a shock to their system....
In a renegotiation such as this, they have to realise that if they shaft us we will take them down with us - or they WILL shaft us.
Basically the negotiation equivalent of the nuclear MAD deterrent.
Yes. In fact we might not even have to make the threat. The EU is also in a perilous economic situation. A badly handled Brexit, that fucks the British economy, will seriously endanger them as well - especially Italy, Greece etc. Confidence could desert all of Europe, not just London
So all sides will, however reluctantly, be forced to work towards a compromise where the City and the UK do alright.
That's my optimistic alter ego talking there.
That is what I am thinking/hoping Sean. The post from MaxPB is very interesting. If he is right, and Juncker is leaving in September, it is likely that May will be able to do a decent deal. That that deal will look and feel very similar to EU membership to most people is barely worth worrying about. Confidence and stability is needed.
The post from Max was indeed interesting. However, I shall later this evening be chatting with one of my online correspondents in Germany. I could give him SeanT's views of where we are, or even your own.
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?
It was exactly the right thing to do. No point breaking one of your batsmens bats before sending him out to the wicket.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
After the way Cameron play the "renegotiation", it would be a shock to their system....
In a renegotiation such as this, they have to realise that if they shaft us we will take them down with us - or they WILL shaft us.
Basically the negotiation equivalent of the nuclear MAD deterrent.
Yes. In fact we might not even have to make the threat. The EU is also in a perilous economic situation. A badly handled Brexit, that fucks the British economy, will seriously endanger them as well - especially Italy, Greece etc. Confidence could desert all of Europe, not just London
So all sides will, however reluctantly, be forced to work towards a compromise where the City and the UK do alright.
That's my optimistic alter ego talking there.
That is what I am thinking/hoping Sean. The post from MaxPB is very interesting. If he is right, and Juncker is leaving in September, it is likely that May will be able to do a decent deal. That that deal will look and feel very similar to EU membership to most people is barely worth worrying about. Confidence and stability is needed.
Ahah, there you are. I remembered where I'd seen the figures for the currency floors. It was in the Financial Stability Report earlier in the week.
The 2014 bank stress test assumed a sterling devaluation of 30%, which is $1.05. It also posited a 35% fall in residential property prices and 30% in commercial. There were other constraints (3.75% rise in base rate, 4.5% increase in unemployment), not as directly relevant. All the banks passed in that scenario. I should add that this wasn't a dry run for Brexit. However, it does highlight the BoE's forward thinking.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.
Won't Labour get crushed in the North if they stand on a pro-Europe platform?
Nope. They would lose some seats. But they would gain lots of marginals in the SE.
And the amount of northern seats they would lose is overstated. Ukip would have to change their entire ethos to reap the big rewards. And don't underestimate the power of FPP.
Still we've solved the Housing Crisis, the same way the Black Death solved the wages crisis
Point of order, Mr. T, the Black Death caused wages to increase. Attempts by the ruling classes to keep wages down to pre-crisis levels were largely unsuccessful and were a driver behind the social unrest in England during the latter half of the 14th century as well as the final collapse of the feudal system (which was actually a bad thing, in the short term, for the people at the bottom end).
The Black Death - don't diss it Sean.
A classic example of how restricting the supply of labour can greatly improve the wage bargaining power of those at the bottom of the pile.
Stuart Rose voiced much the same view about the impact of restricting the supply of labour in February 2016 and was henchforth hidden away from public view by the Remain campaign in a futile attempt to put the cat back into the bag.
The view from Germany, at least the politics of Brexit according to my CDU party contact.
Wha
On where the blame lies, he puts at the door of Junker, Merkel and Schauble and he thinks that a lot of politicians in Germany feel this way too. He also blames Dave for trying to give the UK special status within the EU on migration when he should have gone out and built a coalition to reform free movement and shift it back to labour terms rather than the individual terms. He feels the EU may be forced into this anyway because Germany is beginning to feel the heat of mass migration within the EU (+600k last year according to him).
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
I asked him what he thought on our next PM. He didn't know Leadsom, but thought we would be mad to pick Gove. He said that other EU leaders will loathe having to deal with him after the "dishonourable" way in which the EU referendum was won. He hopes it is May because she will get a fair hearing and idiots in the commission won't try and block a deal like they would for Gove.
He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Your German friend talks sense - it's what I've been saying for two weeks.
Immigration into the UK is going to plummet, anyway. There won't be any work for young Slovaks.
So take EEA ASAP (saving the City) and talk about reform of Free Movement over time.
The key is to be honest with the people. PM May, if it is her, has to come out and say all this. Be direct. Say "We believe immigration will now swiftly fall, this gives us breathing space to work out a long term solution without destroying the economy".
People feel they've been lied to about migration (and they have). It's one reason they are so angry. Honesty will defuse this.
To misquote the Queen: Give me 3 reasons why immigration will fall if we move to EEA (& stability ensues).
Economic slowdown Perceived hostility towards migrants
Can't think of a third, but those two will be enough to bring net migration down to below 200k, which is probably enough.
EU economies continuing to recover, so become differentially more attractive to the man on the Bucharest omnibus.
Another depressing, scary thread. Worried about the economy. Really worried. I know Sean is prone to exaggeration but the fear is he could be right this time.
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
Switzerland with a similar finance-heavy economy only has access to the single market for goods, not services.
That's after they voted to not be in the EEA. They drew up the EEA agreement with the EU and were going to be part of it, but the people voted against it.
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?
Still no challenge to Jeremy Corbyn? Maybe Labour MPs have given up trying to get rid of him.
The only way to get rid of him is at a general election. By which time it's probably too late as a huge chunk of labour MPs will have lost their seats.
They're looking down the back of the sofa to find a credible candidate who didn't actually support the Iraq War. They may be some time.
It's going to have to be Owen smith. Else they may as well get on with it and split.
I don't even know who Owen Smith IS, and I spend half my waking hours on a politics website for politics obsessives.
That's how idiotic British politics has become
He is presentable, sane and tenacious. Completely wrong in his beliefs but he would be bad news for the Conservatives.
No he is a leftwinger and the best he can hope is to be a more presentable version of Corbyn. If Labour is ever to return to power it will be under a moderate like Umunna or Jarvis who is also presentable
Indeed. I don't understand the enthusiasm for Smith at all. I would rather him than Eagle, but then I think Eagle is pretty awful as a leader, so damning by very faint praise. Chuka would be the best choice, or else a young, eye-catching outsider like Luciana Berger or Stella Creasy, who would be a massive gamble but who could possibly turn a few heads in marginals with a decent pro-business pro-Europe message.
Won't Labour get crushed in the North if they stand on a pro-Europe platform?
Nope. They would lose some seats. But they would gain lots of marginals in the SE.
And the amount of northern seats they would lose is overstated. Ukip would have to change their entire ethos to reap the big rewards. And don't underestimate the power of FPP.
Unlikely to gain marginals in the south IMO. The areas that voted remain outside of London are rich Tory shires. They will vote Tory unto the end of days.
The view from Germany, at least the politics of Brexit according to my CDU party contact.
Wha
On where the blame lies, he puts at the door of Junker, Merkel and Schauble and he thinks that a lot of politicians in Germany feel this way too. He also blames Dave for trying to give the UK special status within the EU on migration when he should have gone out and built a coalition to reform free movement and shift it back to labour terms rather than the individual terms. He feels the EU may be forced into this anyway because Germany is beginning to feel the heat of mass migration within the EU (+600k last year according to him).
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
I asked him what he thought on our next PM. He didn't know Leadsom, but thought we would be mad to pick Gove. He said that other EU leaders will loathe having to deal with him after the "dishonourable" way in which the EU referendum was won. He hopes it is May because she will get a fair hearing and idiots in the commission won't try and block a deal like they would for Gove.
He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Your German friend talks sense - it's what I've been saying for two weeks.
Immigration into the UK is going to plummet, anyway. There won't be any work for young Slovaks.
So take EEA ASAP (saving the City) and talk about reform of Free Movement over time.
The key is to be honest with the people. PM May, if it is her, has to come out and say all this. Be direct. Say "We believe immigration will now swiftly fall, this gives us breathing space to work out a long term solution without destroying the economy".
People feel they've been lied to about migration (and they have). It's one reason they are so angry. Honesty will defuse this.
To misquote the Queen: Give me 3 reasons why immigration will fall if we move to EEA (& stability ensues).
Economic slowdown Perceived hostility towards migrants
Can't think of a third, but those two will be enough to bring net migration down to below 200k, which is probably enough.
No, Mr. Max I don't think it would be enough in and of itself. It is not just quantity but quality that matters. 300,000 net taxpayers p.a. might be acceptable; 200,000 cousin brides and big issue sellers might not be.
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.
@MrHarryCole: MP on Leadsom: "she's Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt". Gasps when she replied "with trade envoys" to "how will she negotiate new deal with EU" Q.
Comments
It is lunacy. Property prices in the South East, let alone London have to come down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/05/the-paradoxes-at-the-heart-of-the-brexit-campaign-make-planning/
It happened with Poland
Norman Baker, not so much...
My view is that nobody knows a bloody thing about what is happening. It's just too damned complicated.
It's a scary world and the thundering herd are blundering about based on short term sentiment. If the Italian banks or Grexit III kick off, the pound might rise. Or it might fall because speculators want to see if Carney blinks. We'll likely have a rate cut next week. Let's see what happens then.
We can make life very unpleasant for the EU unless they conduct these negotiations to Queensbury rules. They need to realise we are prepared to do that.
How are my Leaver friends to feed the unicorns they’re getting?
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=doPR-6X9h7c
Whether Osborne gets a top job or his marching orders will be a useful early bellweather.
Cry me a river.
Meanwhile in a few years time when my kids grow up they will be able to afford to buy somewhere rather than hand over half of their salary every month to a petit rentier.
Brexit gets better and better.
For years the left wing labour supporters have blamed the Tories and everyone else for the war because they voted for it. That vote has now been exposed to have been given in good faith but based on inaccuracies and mistakes by the then Labour government.From now on this war is owned entirely by Tony, the PLP and the Labour party in general .
Well done Labour ....you not only oversaw the great crash of 2008 you also oversaw the greatest failure in foreign policy for 60 years ( the LOTO own words)
Basically the negotiation equivalent of the nuclear MAD deterrent.
Those people's biggest asset is their home and these markets are very thin. I want to put this in context for a second: in the whole of London around 1,500 houses sold for more than £2m last year. Probably only 3% of the homes in St John's Wood transacted. If that were to move to 5-6%, it would flood the market; especially if that happens at the same time that the investment banks willingness to put up expat investment bankers in homes for £15,000/month diminishes.
Prime London was over-priced before. It has needed a correction. I am not convinced that foreigner speculators will step into the gap; history suggests they prefer to buy assets that "always go up".
Any asset bubble has to burst and the long it is kept in being, especially by HMG getting involved, the worse the resultant crash will be. House prices are now so totally out of kilter when compared to earnings they have become pernicious. Economically and socially they are unsustainable.
In 1983 I married and we bought a three bedroomed house in Rustington, West Sussex, on my income alone and I was on a bit above median income at the time. It wasn't a fantastic house but it was nice enough, you could raise a family in it. That is now totally impossible for a young couple today. Take for example the youngish couple I posted about the other week - paying £1500 a month rent but don't earn enough to get a mortgage to buy, at least not in West Sussex.
So if property prices do crash 50% or more, you will find me cheering. I'll will, on paper, be hugely out of pocket but youngsters will be better placed and the country will be better for that.
@DPJHodges: Labour MP: "Will Jeremy also meet with family of British soldiers killed by the IRA, who he supported".
That went well then
I see it as quite a likely consequence of Brexit.
@MrHarryCole: Leadsom just refused to publish her tax return at 1922 hustings. But claimed MPs "could look at it individually but it is very boring."
What does she not want party members in the shires to see?
Oh and by the way Mark the only Lib Dem borough in london voted by quite a large margin for Brexit.
Good governance there then..
She's just not very good, that is the truth of the matter.
What people are underestimating is that for the first time the UK has voted against the consensus according to him. Basically until now the UK has been seen as the single most stable nation in the world, responsible government and an electorate willing to deliver it by the ballot box. We recently shunned Ed Miliband and told Brown to do one as well. When Major became a liability the public looked elsewhere, before that the Tory party deposed Thatcher when she became a bit despotic and Scotland also voted down independence recently. Through a number of different factors including FPTP, stable politics, the unwritten constitution and small c conservatism among the people we've never really delivered the establishment a bloody nose. It has made the UK a safe-haven for investors and migrants in the same way Germany, with its past, never could be.
He thinks that if the UK leaves the single market then the bigger damage will be to our reputation for a "safety-first" approach to life which will put investors off the UK over the long term as the people won't be trusted to hold the line.
On where the blame lies, he puts at the door of Junker, Merkel and Schauble and he thinks that a lot of politicians in Germany feel this way too. He also blames Dave for trying to give the UK special status within the EU on migration when he should have gone out and built a coalition to reform free movement and shift it back to labour terms rather than the individual terms. He feels the EU may be forced into this anyway because Germany is beginning to feel the heat of mass migration within the EU (+600k last year according to him).
Finally, he believes the EEA offer is already on the table and that we should take it and just wait it out on free movement. The referendum result has automatically made us less of a destination for migrants.
I asked him what he thought on our next PM. He didn't know Leadsom, but thought we would be mad to pick Gove. He said that other EU leaders will loathe having to deal with him after the "dishonourable" way in which the EU referendum was won. He hopes it is May because she will get a fair hearing and idiots in the commission won't try and block a deal like they would for Gove.
He also thinks that Junker is on his way out, the timing will be lined up for when we get our new PM.
Assuming you're not tax dodging, the worst is presumably significant outside income.
In most cases you should just own it. Unless your key investment is Sports Direct or something.
Were you working on how much of the UK economy was directly bound up with the EU, or am I mis-remembering? My back of the fag packet calculation was ~15% of the economy and ~12% of the workforce. Any thoughts?
I'm a mere neophyte, but my thoughts so far are as follows.
* It's unlikely to be like EUref night. Probably the only way it could be is if all the serious polls in the last week give the same side a decent majority in the electoral college, but the exit polls in the swing states where voting closes earliest show it as 50-50. Having better models than the pollsters would then be at a premium, but difficult.
* The big betting question is whether there's likely to be a sizeable swing in the polls before the vote.
* The sizes of the smallest 10 Dem majorities (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota) correlate most with
- the relative size of the black population (negatively)
- not finishing high school (negatively)
- low income (positively - especially the first quintile)
Obviously the Dem majority is not the same as the Dem vote share, but still, this is interesting. Few black people will vote for Trump, but he would benefit from stoking a white-black polarisation.
Many people on low incomes did finish high school. (Or they are black or Hispanic.) How well placed is this billionaire to get votes from people who are on low incomes? Across the board, he isn't. Where he is excellently placed is to pick up the uneducated white vote, among both those on low incomes and those who aren't. And that demographic overlaps a lot with the white racist vote and with those white people who are amenable to being induced into racism. Who are f***king stupid, basically.
* Trump has so far spent very little, far less than Clinton.
* Trump has used Twitter extremely competently as a major medium for his campaigning, mostly to insult rivals very crudely.
* His lack of open and warm support from many big Rep donors and political figures doesn't serve him too badly. If he wins the Rep nomination, as it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he will, I can't honestly see the National Rifle Association and the usual suspects not backing him.
* There have been a few stories, but Trump hasn't upset the Jewish lobby yet. If he does, we'll know it - the Anti-Defamation League will have his guts for garters. When he and Clinton go to Israel, it's going to be interesting to watch how their meetings with Benjamin Netanyahu get presented and with what soundbites.
* Assuming the Zionists don't squash him, I reckon Trump's chances depend on how well he performs in the TV debates. Television is uneducated people's favourite medium. I can imagine that his score in opinion polls will increase during that time. At his current price of 4.3 he may be a buy.
Thoughts? As I said, I'm a neophyte...
https://twitter.com/simplysimontfa/status/750727483008376832
Shame he's loopy on everything else. I think when Labour replace him they keep him in the cupboard and bring him out every time Labour feck up something else.
He would be a very busy person that's for sure.
Mr. Llama, that's true, although I suspect most people offered a 50% pay rise with a 33% chance of death in the next year would decline.
It is something I'm working on, our old figure was 9.6% of the economy, but I don't think that is correct so I'm reviewing it myself which means days of trawling through tariff data to strip out re-exports. My guess is that we're looking at about 11-12% of GDP, possibly a bit lower.
His apologising on behalf of the party outside the chamber when he can't even command the authority of his own MPs was beyond the pale.
We have net immigration of about 300,000 a year. That number will fall after Brexit, I expect, but not to nothing.
To misquote the Queen: Give me 3 reasons why immigration will fall if we move to EEA (& stability ensues).
If our entire trade with the EU dried up (no imports or exports) it would affect maybe 15% of the economy (see upthread ). The chances of our economy dropping by 30% is therefore close to zero.
Have some tea.
Perceived hostility towards migrants
Can't think of a third, but those two will be enough to bring net migration down to below 200k, which is probably enough.
The 2014 bank stress test assumed a sterling devaluation of 30%, which is $1.05. It also posited a 35% fall in residential property prices and 30% in commercial. There were other constraints (3.75% rise in base rate, 4.5% increase in unemployment), not as directly relevant. All the banks passed in that scenario. I should add that this wasn't a dry run for Brexit. However, it does highlight the BoE's forward thinking.
Nope. They would lose some seats. But they would gain lots of marginals in the SE.
And the amount of northern seats they would lose is overstated. Ukip would have to change their entire ethos to reap the big rewards. And don't underestimate the power of FPP.
A classic example of how restricting the supply of labour can greatly improve the wage bargaining power of those at the bottom of the pile.
Stuart Rose voiced much the same view about the impact of restricting the supply of labour in February 2016 and was henchforth hidden away from public view by the Remain campaign in a futile attempt to put the cat back into the bag.
Tonight I will be mostly drinking rum.
UK commercial property wants a sell off, almost certainly leading to lower prices for occupiers; sterling has fallen leading to lower labour costs in currency comparative terms for UK employees of multinationals and Osborne is promising to take corporation tax down to 15% or below?
Cheaper property, lower wage bills and less in tax?
And businesses are going to leave in search of dearer property, higher bills and higher taxes somewhere else?
Personally I would split out genuine students from the immigration figures and "temporary workers". Then we might get some sense into the discussions.