politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more fr
Comments
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Residential property roughly works on 10 year cycles-with an often bigger fall on the 20th yearScott_P said:@IGcom: #Equity markets tumble as fears over UK #housingmarket mount https://t.co/3grRYuoPcV
last high was 2006/07 depending on where you are.
Although as interest rates probably wont rise this may not be such a big fall.0 -
''What a dreadful thought — that the Conservative Party might actually be led by someone with socially conservative views. ''
And what a prize for conservative members. Putting into Downing Street a conservative as opposed to a Blairite in a dress.0 -
Murray has a tough match coming up against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - if he comes through that, he can still go toe-to-toe with Federer. Shaping up to be a great few days.Sunil_Prasannan said:
His Wimbledon title to lose, I reckon.MarqueeMark said:Masterful performance by Federer to come back to win in 5 sets.
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I'm sitting completely tight - got as safe as I could earlier in the year. Brexit thrashing around will last for weeks if not months, unless something exciting happens in Asia.foxinsoxuk said:
I dumped my shares in housebuilders PDQ. Stiil in a cash position, but going bargain hunting soon.OldKingCole said:
The day OF the referendum my IFA rang to tell me to tell him to take all our money OUT of property pdq.Ishmael_X said:
Not just property funds, they are just where it shows up first. Other types of fund don't have to suspend withdrawals.IanB2 said:
All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
If you want an anecdote I pulled out of p2p lending on Monday to put the money somewhere the govt guarantees it.
Its an ill wind that blows no good, but I wouldn't touch property at the moment.
Best to read the foreign press at the moment, there's less emotion about it all.0 -
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.0 -
@Sean_FSean_F said:
Gove is the least suitable of the three candidates.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.
How do Tory Party rules work re: a challenge to a (new) leader? Similar system to Labour? Is the leader guaranteed a place on the ballot?0 -
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.foxinsoxuk said:
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.0 -
It's interesting. Or would be, if we weren't all living through it.SeanT said:
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can.TOPPING said:
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
Still a big IF though.
No one disputes our economy needs to be rebalanced away from high personal borrowing and an inflated property market, and towards more sustainable consumption and lower household debt.
Such was the case in 2010, and 2015. As we saw then, however, the CotE did not have the cojones to effect such a rebalance (much to the disgust of @Alanbrooke for example). It was felt, and I agree with the thinking, that it would have been and would be too much of a shock to rebase our house price index, say 30% lower.
Leave out the super-prime Russki No.1 Hyde Park, etc and high property prices, the feelgood factor and the actual increased equity (and borrowing on it) has fuelled much of the consumption boom these past decade(s).
Now we are in the position whereby an exogenous shock is threatening to carry out just such a rebalance.
What the govt does then will of course be critical. Perhaps under the guise of Brexit they tut but let it all happen, knowing that it is better for the economy in the medium term. More likely of course they will panic like Corporal Jones.
Not trigger A50? It will be on the table for sure.0 -
The tennis is on the other side, why don't you just turn over?PlatoSaid said:
He's still talking on Sky... I've made/eaten a late lunch, changed a litter tray, watched another tv show...Moses_ said:
MaybeGIN1138 said:I think these extraordinary past couple of weeks are kind of like the final "death throes" of the whole Blair era.
Brexit and Chilcot, painful and jarring as they are, will allow us to finally move on from the 1994-2016 era.
Hopefully, from the ruins, will emerge a new, vibrant, kinder (and hopefully far less cynical) politics.
I remember all the labour supporters going on and on and on for years about the sinking of the Belgrano. Now this today makes that situation look utterly minuscule in comparison.
Some of the Teflon has come away from Tone this afternoon.
I really don't want to hear any more excuses/self-justification/handwaving from him.0 -
15% of MPs (51 currently) write a letter to the chair of the 1922 committee to trigger a vote of confidence among Conservative MPs. If the leader loses that vote on a simple majority, he or she is is forced to resign and may NOT stand in the subsequent election for the new leaderJobabob said:
@Sean_FSean_F said:
Gove is the least suitable of the three candidates.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.
How do Tory Party rules work re: a challenge to a (new) leader? Similar system to Labour? Is the leader guaranteed a place on the ballot?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/snpc-01366-2-1.pdf <<Tory leadership elections rule book.0 -
Gone overseas.John_M said:
I'm sitting completely tight - got as safe as I could earlier in the year. Brexit thrashing around will last for weeks if not months, unless something exciting happens in Asia.foxinsoxuk said:
I dumped my shares in housebuilders PDQ. Stiil in a cash position, but going bargain hunting soon.OldKingCole said:
The day OF the referendum my IFA rang to tell me to tell him to take all our money OUT of property pdq.Ishmael_X said:
Not just property funds, they are just where it shows up first. Other types of fund don't have to suspend withdrawals.IanB2 said:
All true, but the fact remains that they have been hit by an unexpectedly large number of sellers. Which must tell us something, if just the human capacity for panic in the face of uncertainty. And why just property funds being sold?RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
If you want an anecdote I pulled out of p2p lending on Monday to put the money somewhere the govt guarantees it.
Its an ill wind that blows no good, but I wouldn't touch property at the moment.
Best to read the foreign press at the moment, there's less emotion about it all.0 -
I am coming round to that view as well. If she comes second but is very far behind May (e.g. 100+) then Leadsom may be best to say that she has insufficient MP support and that she does not want a Corbyn situation developing etc. Members can then engage with those MPs that are listed as May supporters, particularly in the light of the coming boundary changes and selections.... UKIP supporters and members may be very wise to join the Conservative party and help engage in the process.Sean_F said:
Gove is the least suitable of the three candidates.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.
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The 'UKIP' candidate?taffys said:''What a dreadful thought — that the Conservative Party might actually be led by someone with socially conservative views. ''
And what a prize for conservative members. Putting into Downing Street a conservative as opposed to a Blairite in a dress.0 -
The last time we had significant falls they were stabilised by emergency measures like near zero interest rates and subsequent props like Help to Buy which are still there.RepublicanTory said:
Residential property roughly works on 10 year cycles-with an often bigger fall on the 20th yearScott_P said:@IGcom: #Equity markets tumble as fears over UK #housingmarket mount https://t.co/3grRYuoPcV
last high was 2006/07 depending on where you are.
Although as interest rates probably wont rise this may not be such a big fall.
This time the government will have no ammunition to protect the market and it will need to find a level supported by real incomes in the domestic economy. It's a long way down from here.0 -
Mr. T, if we don't leave the EU after the referendum, it may be springtime (again) for UKIP, especially if they have a new leader who can harness people's anger/disillusionment without suffering from Farage's baggage.0
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It is. Elections aren't won with outdated ideas which is why Cameron was so (relatively) succesful for the Tories.AndyJS said:
What a dreadful thought — that the Conservative Party might actually be led by someone with socially conservative views.foxinsoxuk said:
Leadsom looks to be "socially conservative" enough to be able to pick up kipper votes.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.0 -
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....0 -
End Balls on CNBC now. Why would anyone take him seriously? Poor Americans.0
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Top spin on both channels then.Jobabob said:
The tennis is on the other side, why don't you just turn over?PlatoSaid said:
He's still talking on Sky... I've made/eaten a late lunch, changed a litter tray, watched another tv show...Moses_ said:
MaybeGIN1138 said:I think these extraordinary past couple of weeks are kind of like the final "death throes" of the whole Blair era.
Brexit and Chilcot, painful and jarring as they are, will allow us to finally move on from the 1994-2016 era.
Hopefully, from the ruins, will emerge a new, vibrant, kinder (and hopefully far less cynical) politics.
I remember all the labour supporters going on and on and on for years about the sinking of the Belgrano. Now this today makes that situation look utterly minuscule in comparison.
Some of the Teflon has come away from Tone this afternoon.
I really don't want to hear any more excuses/self-justification/handwaving from him.0 -
The parliamentary party has factions. If the membership vote in Leadsom she will have to balance those factions, but if she is popular that will give her a strong hand.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I am coming round to that view as well. If she comes second but is very far behind May (e.g. 100+) then Leadsom may be best to say that she has insufficient MP support and that she does not want a Corbyn situation developing etc. Members can then engage with those MPs that are listed as May supporters, particularly in the light of the coming boundary changes and selections.... UKIP supporters and members may be very wise to join the Conservative party and help engage in the process.Sean_F said:
Gove is the least suitable of the three candidates.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.
As the new Leave PM she should get a poll boost (Con numbers are not terribly good, despite Labour being weak) that should help her. And most of the Con MPs represent seats that voted Leave.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
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Negative rates ?williamglenn said:
The last time we had significant falls they were stabilised by emergency measures like near zero interest rates and subsequent props like Help to Buy which are still there.RepublicanTory said:
Residential property roughly works on 10 year cycles-with an often bigger fall on the 20th yearScott_P said:@IGcom: #Equity markets tumble as fears over UK #housingmarket mount https://t.co/3grRYuoPcV
last high was 2006/07 depending on where you are.
Although as interest rates probably wont rise this may not be such a big fall.
This time the government will have no ammunition to protect the market and it will need to find a level supported by real incomes in the domestic economy. It's a long way down from here.0 -
Italian banks are in trouble because the European Central Bank has said one of them must dispose of over euro 10 billion of loans which are in default.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
The suspicion is that Italian banks have not made sufficient provisions and sale of loans will mean they have to make greater provisions. Some italian banks don't have enough equity to survive the extra losses and can't raise more equity.
The EU is not allowing the italian government to pour cash into the banks because under new rules they should instead be falling back on market loans and converting them to equity. This would make it difficult for italian banks to raise new loans on the market.
Italian banks could then collapse and the lack of new loans will lead to the collapse of italian business. Italian business will then be unable to pay workers wages.
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I'm amused by the suggestion that Theresa May is somehow a kaftan-wearing hippie with socially-liberal views that will scare off the Tory matrons.
Guys, she IS a Tory matron. That is what they are like. She's 100% aligned with the social views of the membership.0 -
Leadsom seems no more or less socially conservative than May, but she has too many enemies to succeed as leader.AndyJS said:
What a dreadful thought — that the Conservative Party might actually be led by someone with socially conservative views.foxinsoxuk said:
Leadsom looks to be "socially conservative" enough to be able to pick up kipper votes.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
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Brexit was completely unexpected. The markets are still in shock, and that shock is making them look at the whole picture. The Italian banks have 360billion euros worth of 'non-performing loans'. They're really on the edge. The Italian government has no money.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.0 -
Mr Dancer - I think there is zero chance we won't leave. I was on the other side of the debate but I will insist most strongly that we leave and having left there should be no contemplation of returning. The issue is settled.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, if we don't leave the EU after the referendum, it may be springtime (again) for UKIP, especially if they have a new leader who can harness people's anger/disillusionment without suffering from Farage's baggage.
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There is an argument that MPs ought to back Gove for second place because either winner is then credible. Not because they're trying to stitch up a May victory but because they have a responsibility to put two supportable candidates to the membership. 2003 would have been very different if we'd had the choice between Clarke and Portillo.CarlottaVance said:
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....0 -
Mr. Evershed, but apart from that, everything's super?
Incidentally, I read on this site that Italy was just going to ignore the ECB rules on this (which came in, as I read, after Germany et al. had done what the new rules forbid).0 -
William Hill @sharpeangle 52m52 minutes ago
Will George Osborne be Chancellor on January 1, 2017? 4/7 No; 5/4 Yes. #OsborneMustGo
Can anyone else find this market ?0 -
SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.0
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E.U one size fits all strikes again.David_Evershed said:
Italian banks are in trouble because the European Central Bank has said one of them must dispose of over euro 10 billion of loans which are in default.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
The suspicion is that Italian banks have not made sufficient provisions and sale of loans will mean they have to make greater provisions. Some italian banks don't have enough equity to survive the extra losses and can't raise more equity.
The EU is not allowing the italian government to pour cash into the banks because under new rules they should instead be falling back on market loans and converting them to equity. This would make it difficult for italian banks to raise new loans on the market.
Italian banks could then collapse and the lack of new loans will lead to the collapse of italian business. Italian business will then be unable to pay workers wages.0 -
So not linked to Brexit then? Although, the EU being the EU, no doubt the UK will get the blame.....David_Evershed said:
Italian banks are in trouble because the European Central Bank has said one of them must dispose of over euro 10 billion of loans which are in default.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
The suspicion is that Italian banks have not made sufficient provisions and sale of loans will mean they have to make greater provisions. Some italian banks don't have enough equity to survive the extra losses and can't raise more equity.
The EU is not allowing the italian government to pour cash into the banks because under new rules they should instead be falling back on market loans and converting them to equity. This would make it difficult for italian banks to raise new loans on the market.
Italian banks could then collapse and the lack of new loans will lead to the collapse of italian business. Italian business will then be unable to pay workers wages.0 -
She wouldn't face relentless efforts to force her out. The parliamentary party would accept the verdict of the membership.Sean_F said:
Gove is the least suitable of the three candidates.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.0 -
Gove's previous views on the Iraq war should disqualify him alone, particularly on a day like today. Gove has a veneer of credibility concealing the mind of a fanatic.DearPB said:
There is an argument that MPs ought to back Gove for second place because either winner is then credible. Not because they're trying to stitch up a May victory but because they have a responsibility to put two supportable candidates to the membership. 2003 would have been very different if we'd had the choice between Clarke and Portillo.CarlottaVance said:
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....0 -
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.John_M said:
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.foxinsoxuk said:
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.0 -
If Con councillors don't rate Mr Gove (Survation poll), why would Con MPs?DearPB said:
There is an argument that MPs ought to back Gove for second place because either winner is then credible. Not because they're trying to stitch up a May victory but because they have a responsibility to put two supportable candidates to the membership. 2003 would have been very different if we'd had the choice between Clarke and Portillo.CarlottaVance said:
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....0 -
The desire to present binary choices is just another irritating media construct. She's more liberal than Leadsom so therefore she must be liberal etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm amused by the suggestion that Theresa May is somehow a kaftan-wearing hippie with socially-liberal views that will scare off the Tory matrons.
Guys, she IS a Tory matron. That is what they are like. She's 100% aligned with the social views of the membership.0 -
Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm0
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Mr. PB, I think that's a credible argument.
Mr. Jim, I think it highly likely we will leave, but not certain.
Must admit, I half-expected Cameron to remain (as it were), negotiate a terrible new deal with the EU, and then offer us a referendum on those terms or Remaining in the EU.0 -
+1. We have at least two people responsible for posting tweets o'doom already. We don't need another. Banks, property, construction all under pressure. Go and have a look at some mining stocks and make yourself feel better.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
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Current polling is completely coloured by his so called treachery. Give it a couple of weeks and his ratings will recover like the FTSE.anotherDave said:
If Con councillors don't rate Mr Gove (Survation poll), why would Con MPs?DearPB said:
There is an argument that MPs ought to back Gove for second place because either winner is then credible. Not because they're trying to stitch up a May victory but because they have a responsibility to put two supportable candidates to the membership. 2003 would have been very different if we'd had the choice between Clarke and Portillo.CarlottaVance said:
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....0 -
Who could have predicted this? Although I can't see how we can now not leave the EU, the humiliation would be too great and we would never be able to stand up to any future EU proposals.SeanT said:Another fund closes
http://www.cityam.com/244918/columbia-threadneedles-property-fund-becomes-fifth-suspend?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
This is danger of turning into a rout. It could easily spread. It is the End of Days
If this continues we won't Brexit.
"Speaking at the G7 summit in Japan, Osborne said: “If we leave the European Union, there will be an immediate economic shock that will hit financial markets. People will not know what the future looks like.
“In the long term, the country and the people in the country are going to be poorer. That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10% and up to 18%.”.....
Andrea Leadsom, a Conservative minister campaigning for Brexit, who used to work in the Treasury with Osborne, said it was a “an extraordinary claim and I’m amazed that Treasury civil servants would be prepared to make it”.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/eu-referendum-george-osborne-house-prices-brexit0 -
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.SeanT said:
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can.TOPPING said:
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
Still a big IF though.
0 -
6 months lead time isn't really enough, as these investors are about to find out. My problem with these kinds of funds is that they exacerbate booms and busts. It allows people to pile in when times are good thereby amplifying a boom and when prices start to fall they panic and there is a rush for the exit which amplifies the crash. It is one of those innovations we could have done without.matt said:
The risk factors to investment clearly state that they are illiquid and that have concentration risks not covered by their risk weighting. The risk warning I have a in a document on my desk clearly and obviously states that "withdrawals....may be deferred for up to 6 months".Sandpit said:
That doesn't sound like a particularly sensible business model, as it amplifies or even perpetuates small changes in a particular sector. Great when the price is rising, but hideous on the way down. As you say, we need fewer of this sort of financial product around.MaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
They provide a crucial part of funding CRE in the UK. Without them there would be far less recycling of development funds and far less development. As ever, its easy to say "close them down" without thinking about the consequences.0 -
Is there a reference for property being worth less?foxinsoxuk said:
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.John_M said:
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.foxinsoxuk said:
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
0 -
@lindayueh: Make that 6 - 6th UK property funds suspend trading due to #Brexit withdrawals https://t.co/3MLglD7Gzh0
-
In order that Gove comes second and thus stands in the final round against May rather than Leadsom, who might have a better chance of beating May.anotherDave said:
If Con councillors don't rate Mr Gove (Survation poll), why would Con MPs?DearPB said:
There is an argument that MPs ought to back Gove for second place because either winner is then credible. Not because they're trying to stitch up a May victory but because they have a responsibility to put two supportable candidates to the membership. 2003 would have been very different if we'd had the choice between Clarke and Portillo.CarlottaVance said:
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....0 -
GSK.L 1,649.17
GBXPrice increase4.17 (0.25%)
I really should have bought a whole bunch more at 1278.0 -
Exactly. His exchange with Marr on Sunday was literally incredible - Gove trying to explain why dealing with former terrorists was wrong in principle, hence he opposed the Northern Irish peace agreement - Marr says, "but it's surely saved lots of lives", Gove says "never mind, it was wrong in principle". Principles like that we do not need from a PM!williamglenn said:
Gove's previous views on the Iraq war should disqualify him alone, particularly on a day like today. Gove has a veneer of credibility concealing the mind of a fanatic.DearPB said:
There is an argument that MPs ought to back Gove for second place because either winner is then credible. Not because they're trying to stitch up a May victory but because they have a responsibility to put two supportable candidates to the membership. 2003 would have been very different if we'd had the choice between Clarke and Portillo.CarlottaVance said:
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....0 -
I reluctantly agree.ToryJim said:Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm
0 -
Guido has him down as a May supporter. Does a short contest favour May?ToryJim said:Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm
0 -
In addition Deutsche Bank is also problematic http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36723034John_M said:
Brexit was completely unexpected. The markets are still in shock, and that shock is making them look at the whole picture. The Italian banks have 360billion euros worth of 'non-performing loans'. They're really on the edge. The Italian government has no money.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
0 -
Yes it does, but members are well informed about the 3 people.anotherDave said:
Guido has him down as a May supporter. Does a short contest favour May?ToryJim said:Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm
0 -
Latest Tory hustings start at 5:00pm.
May coronation by 5:01pm ....
0 -
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.MattW said:
Is there a reference for property being worth less?foxinsoxuk said:
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.John_M said:
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.foxinsoxuk said:
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.0 -
I think the expectation is that there will be a fall in property prices, with London the most affected.MattW said:
Is there a reference for property being worth less?foxinsoxuk said:
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.John_M said:
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.foxinsoxuk said:
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
Harder to call in the provinces of course, there have been some fairly counter-intuitive trends since 2008. I think PB is quite heavily London-biased, so I expect the discussion will be focused on the capital.0 -
I logged into my SIPP expecting to see the same, but because I was mainly in resources and overseas funds, found that everything had suddenly gone up by 10% or more. So now I am worrying about how to protect against everything going into reverse....foxinsoxuk said:
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.John_M said:
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.foxinsoxuk said:
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
Personally I would stay well away from Uk property for the foreseeable.0 -
@Rob_Merrick: Well-received gag in my office: "Andrea Leadsom is the only person trying to convince people that she was a banker"0
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Gold has gone insane - too many SeanT type panickers. Go to Bullionvault.com, click on the Chart option and select GBP. That's my portfolio. :-)Pulpstar said:GSK.L 1,649.17
GBXPrice increase4.17 (0.25%)
I really should have bought a whole bunch more at 1278.0 -
Well, there you go. Andrea knows. It's how she won her Nobel prize for economics.JonathanD said:
Who could have predicted this? Although I can't see how we can now not leave the EU, the humiliation would be too great and we would never be able to stand up to any future EU proposals.SeanT said:Another fund closes
http://www.cityam.com/244918/columbia-threadneedles-property-fund-becomes-fifth-suspend?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
This is danger of turning into a rout. It could easily spread. It is the End of Days
If this continues we won't Brexit.
"Speaking at the G7 summit in Japan, Osborne said: “If we leave the European Union, there will be an immediate economic shock that will hit financial markets. People will not know what the future looks like.
“In the long term, the country and the people in the country are going to be poorer. That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10% and up to 18%.”.....
Andrea Leadsom, a Conservative minister campaigning for Brexit, who used to work in the Treasury with Osborne, said it was a “an extraordinary claim and I’m amazed that Treasury civil servants would be prepared to make it”.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/eu-referendum-george-osborne-house-prices-brexit
0 -
If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?0
-
Did none of that occur to you until the walk back from the polling station? jeezSeanT said:
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.0 -
It's a classic case of dominoes falling. As soon as Standard Life set the, err, standard the others have no choice but to follow suit, open investment in something as illiquid as property was always going to end up this way, it is not a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. Indeed, many people who have used the pre-referendum months to cash out when there was some liquidity available.SeanT said:Another fund closes
http://www.cityam.com/244918/columbia-threadneedles-property-fund-becomes-fifth-suspend?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
This is danger of turning into a rout. It could easily spread. It is the End of Days
If this continues we won't Brexit.0 -
There are now reports of increased drug prices to the NHS due to the fall in the £. Don’t think it’ll take all the £350m yet, though.0
-
Yes it needs to be speeded up, but that is required to remove all the doom sayers that are defending their position of "I told you so". Otherwise these pessimistic REMAINers will bring about a little recession through convincing a few gullible folk that they need to stop spending and investing. That clear out needs to start with the PM and Osborne. They were the future once....SeanT said:
Absolutely right. There is NO point in taking a leisurely ten weeks. Ridiculous. We don't have the bloody time. The City is burnin'ToryJim said:Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm
0 -
Exactly. MPs job is to draw up a shortlist of two - ie the two people most suitable.DearPB said:
There is an argument that MPs ought to back Gove for second place because either winner is then credible. Not because they're trying to stitch up a May victory but because they have a responsibility to put two supportable candidates to the membership. 2003 would have been very different if we'd had the choice between Clarke and Portillo.CarlottaVance said:
Leadsom also carries all of LEAVE's baggage - the weekly questions on "£350million for the NHS" will run & rum.Sean_F said:
I think that Conservative members would be well-advised to support May, on the ground that if Leadsom won, she would face relentless efforts to force her out from the word go.MikeL said:I am afraid everything in the thread header will gain Leadsom votes with Conservative members - many of them, even if only on the quiet, will strongly endorse her views.
Conservative MPs have to go into this with their eyes wide open - if Leadsom is on the ballot she has a very good chance of winning.
30 or 40 May supporters should vote Gove and they should do so quite openly. They should say that MPs responsibility is to put forward a shortlist of two candidates - both of whom they believe are suitable to be leader and PM.
If they believe Gove is more suitable than Leadsom then they must put Gove on the shortlist of two candidates - even if their number 1 choice is May.
May simply won't get asked......and if she is she'll point at Gisela Stuart on the Labour benches....
There is no direct advantage in one person racking up huge numbers of MPs votes - because MPs are not selecting the winner. They are selecting the shortlist of two.
So their job is to make the shortlist as strong as possible. If they believe May + Gove is a stronger shortlist than May + Leadsom then they must vote to get a shortlist of May + Gove.0 -
-
The operative word is 'could'. On that basis, anything could happen. Aliens. Plagues of newts. Gove and Boris setting up home together. Who knows? I think this is Sean's fifth or sixth panic and the referendum is less than a fortnight oldIanB2 said:
Did none of that occur to you until the walk back from the polling station? jeezSeanT said:
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
. 0 -
The funds involved saw this coming, and started messing about with bid/offer prices accordingly, back in May. Truly fascinating: http://citywire.co.uk/money/property-funds-hit-investors-with-share-price-mark-downs/a9081030
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I wouldn't envy any prominent Brexit campaigner found to have been cashing out before the vote.MaxPB said:Indeed, many people who have used the pre-referendum months to cash out when there was some liquidity available.
0 -
A lot of these stocks were already insolvent, the Italian banks for example are zombies on borrowed time and money. What Brexit has done has exposed the crap already there and bought forward the day of reckoning.SeanT said:
I can say this with some authority as everyone seems to be a market expert now. Ffs.0 -
It will blow over soon enough. Anticipating this reactionr is precisely why the banks are flush with liquidity and Ozzy has said we can return to surplus a bit later if need be. Sure - Brexit implies a major re-adjustment. Good. Some sectors are doing brilliantly as a result. Some will suffer. We made the right decision. Otherwise the unaccountable EU Project is a prison.SeanT said:
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.0 -
@mrjamesob: People who warned that bad things would happen are now being blamed for bad things happening by people who ignored the warnings. #sourgrapesTCPoliticalBetting said:Yes it needs to be speeded up, but that is required to remove all the doom sayers that are defending their position of "I told you so". Otherwise these pessimistic REMAINers will bring about a little recession
0 -
London's housing market can uniquely benefit from foreign money attracted in following a 20% decline in sterling. There may be a little short term delay in that happening whilst things settle down with a new PM. But I have held London property since the mid 1980s.SeanT said:
They are about to discover how important London is to the British economy.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.SeanT said:
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can.TOPPING said:
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
Still a big IF though.
0 -
Absolutely wrong. The whole country needs to slow down and do things more calmly. Sod the City.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. There is NO point in taking a leisurely ten weeks. Ridiculous. We don't have the bloody time. The City is burnin'ToryJim said:Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm
0 -
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.SeanT said:
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
This is a breeze by comparison.
0 -
Mr. M, there'll also be a London bias amongst politicians and the media when it comes to such things.0
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Not reports - it's happening. New batches of generic and brand name drugs imported from abroad will all be more expensive now.OldKingCole said:There are now reports of increased drug prices to the NHS due to the fall in the £. Don’t think it’ll take all the £350m yet, though.
0 -
If she has the discipline to control Type I effectively, that will help her not be a micromanaging all-hours control freak PM :-)GIN1138 said:
This is true. Control of the condition and taking care of yourself are key.surbiton said:
I am a diabetic and I consider myself reasonably healthy. My father was a diabetic and he died at the age of 90. It is how you look after yourself that matters.GIN1138 said:
No. 60 is the new 50. Actually I would say around 55-65 is the idea age for someone to be PM as they have lot's of life experience but are still young enough to be physically up to the job.David_Evershed said:May born 1956, seven years before Leadsom.
Is sixty too old to be PM nowadays?
In May's case, given she's a Diabetic, there has to be a question mark as to how well she's able to do the job long term, though I think her Diabetes is very well controlled (you never hear stories about her having to go to hospital, etc.)
Which will be a good thing.0 -
We broke the eggs, you make the omelette...SeanT said:
Yes, it did. And I thought it was unlikely. I also thought the Brexiteers would have an obvious plan to announce on Day 1 - move to EEA in the interim, etc, to prevent exactly this kind of mood contagion.IanB2 said:
Did none of that occur to you until the walk back from the polling station? jeezSeanT said:
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
My personal confidence began to falter when they said No, we haven't got a plan, don;t be silly, the government should have had a plan. And then we discovered the government didn't have a plan either.
They all just fucking disappeared for five days, on both sides. The only one who manned up was Mark Carney.
It is in danger of turning into a total catastrophe.0 -
Unless they are mining stocks then they are doing quite nicely, most seem to be putting on well over 10% today.SeanT said:
Absolutely right. There is NO point in taking a leisurely ten weeks. Ridiculous. We don't have the bloody time. The City is burnin'ToryJim said:Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm
0 -
SeanT said:
Another fund closes
http://www.cityam.com/244918/columbia-threadneedles-property-fund-becomes-fifth-suspend?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
This is danger of turning into a rout. It could easily spread. It is the End of Days
If this continues we won't Brexit.
The fund has not closed but suspended people leaving because it takes a long while to sell property and raise the cash to repay investors.
You can still invest in property funds if you wish.
0 -
I think there is a fair chance of the UK economy entering a goldilocks zone where Sterling is still weak, but confidence returns once the PM lays out the plans for the nation which more than likely involve us staying in the single market and re-entering EFTA in order to do that. We would have a depreciated currency, confidence and bargain hunters galore.TCPoliticalBetting said:
London's housing market can uniquely benefit from foreign money attracted in following a 20% decline in sterling. There may be a little short term delay in that happening whilst things settle down with a new PM. But I have held London property since the mid 1980s.SeanT said:
They are about to discover how important London is to the British economy.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.SeanT said:
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can.TOPPING said:
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
Still a big IF though.0 -
I expect the price of drugs to the WNWC will go up also go up also .OldKingCole said:There are now reports of increased drug prices to the NHS due to the fall in the £. Don’t think it’ll take all the £350m yet, though.
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I don't mean to be rude, but just because something has gone up for 40 years doesn't mean it'll continue to go up.Sean_F said:
Property is never going to be worth less, except perhaps in the very short term. You'd laugh if I showed you the copy title deeds I possess, showing London values in the 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. You have to be very incompetent, or very unlucky, not to profit from London property.MattW said:
Is there a reference for property being worth less?foxinsoxuk said:
So do I, my UK equities, cash and now it seems my property are now worth substantially less than 2 weeks ago. I have a secure job and income so can take the hit, but I am not the only one who will be cutting consumer spending.John_M said:
That's a fair, if technical, point. I invest in sterling, so don't tend to look at it from that perspective.foxinsoxuk said:
If you price our equities in Forex, the drops are bigger in the UK. The devaluation of Sterling masks the drops.taffys said:If you look at equity falls, they are far steeper in continental Europe than the UK or the US (dow nearly neutral now ).
The big problem is Italy's banks - apparently they are getting close to total meltdown because of Brexit, though I'm not sure why.
I reckon that the markets will take about six months to bottom out, property a bit longer.
All I have seen is a liquidity issue with property funds, which is them acting to protect all their customers.
If we have a period where the population is declining (which is entirely possible) then property prices could easily slide.
Don't forget, German property prices dropped nearly every year for almost 30 years from the early 1980s.0 -
Coming back to the EU ref i have just got the turnout figures per ward for the London Borough of Sutton.
The remarkable thing is the 86% return of postals.
St Helier ward and Wandle Valley normally turnout nearer 35%
London Borough of Sutton
Referendum on th UK membership of the European Union - 23 June 2016
Ward
Polling Station Electorate
Postal Voters
Total Electorate
Total Votes Cast
Polling Station Turnout
Worcester Park 7,111 1,537 8,648 5327 74.91%
Nonsuch 6,540 1,505 8,045 5068 77.49%
Stonecot 6,702 1,459 8,161 5012 74.78%
Cheam 6,221 1,838 8,059 4760 76.52%
Sutton North 6,033 1,336 7,369 4411 73.11%
Sutton West 6,107 1,557 7,664 4582 75.03%
Sutton Central 6,247 1,323 7,570 4320 69.15%
Sutton South 5,237 1,645 6,882 3624 69.20%
Belmont 5,885 1,639 7,524 4391 74.61%
St Helier 6,521 1,306 7,827 4117 63.13%
Wandle Valley 6,676 1,170 7,846 4398 65.88%
The Wrythe 6,228 1,435 7,663 4480 71.93%
Carshalton Central 6,318 1,430 7,748 4948 78.32%
Carshalton South & Clockhouse 6,178 1,532 7,710 4844 78.41%
Wallington North 6,678 1,407 8,085 5001 74.89%
Wallington South 6,329 1,447 7,776 4559 72.03%
Beddington North 6,345 1,437 7,782 4639 73.11%
Beddington South 6,504 1,417 7,921 4555 70.03%
Postal Votes 0 26,420 23,594 89.30%
Total Electorate 113,860 26,420 140,280 106,630 76.01%0 -
I actually think that where we are headed now (falling property prices, falling pound (with consequent higher share prices, inflation and interest rates) will be very good news for pension funds.
Except those fully indexed to RPI or heavily invested in risky property funds.
US and China have been trying to devalue viz a viz each other for years and we have managed a 10-15% devaluation at a stroke. Yellen must be green with envy0 -
Probably offset by the cheaper cost to borrow.SouthamObserver said:
Not reports - it's happening. New batches of generic and brand name drugs imported from abroad will all be more expensive now.OldKingCole said:There are now reports of increased drug prices to the NHS due to the fall in the £. Don’t think it’ll take all the £350m yet, though.
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Its not like London generates large amounts of the UKs tax revenue or anything..SeanT said:
They are about to discover how important London is to the British economy.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.SeanT said:
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can.TOPPING said:
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
Still a big IF though.
"Property sales in London are generating nearly half of all stamp duty revenue raised in England and Wales, according to data that show the impact of last year’s hike in rates for the most valuable homes."
https://next.ft.com/content/e814d3f4-3780-11e5-bdbb-35e55cbae1750 -
No worries. The NHS will receive £350m every weekOldKingCole said:There are now reports of increased drug prices to the NHS due to the fall in the £. Don’t think it’ll take all the £350m yet, though.
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Never mind the remainers, its the frit leavers we need to watch. Sean "Jeremiah" T of this parishTCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes it needs to be speeded up, but that is required to remove all the doom sayers that are defending their position of "I told you so". Otherwise these pessimistic REMAINers will bring about a little recession through convincing a few gullible folk that they need to stop spending and investing. That clear out needs to start with the PM and Osborne. They were the future once....SeanT said:
Absolutely right. There is NO point in taking a leisurely ten weeks. Ridiculous. We don't have the bloody time. The City is burnin'ToryJim said:Grant Shapps is calling for the leadership contest to be shortened to 3 weeks. Hmm
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If you are referring to the worry she has created for EU citizens living here, yes it is a monumental blunder - but did it come out of Letwin's team of EU experts? This is a classic example of why the current establishment are so bad at policy thinking. Does any one seriously think that Letwin is not away with the fairies?John_N4 said:If this is what Theresa is like when she tries to kill rumours off, what's she like when she spreads them?
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And a golden age for tourists to the UK too. Already seeing the Chinese piling in.MaxPB said:
I think there is a fair chance of the UK economy entering a goldilocks zone where Sterling is still weak, but confidence returns once the PM lays out the plans for the nation which more than likely involve us staying in the single market and re-entering EFTA in order to do that. We would have a depreciated currency, confidence and bargain hunters galore.TCPoliticalBetting said:
London's housing market can uniquely benefit from foreign money attracted in following a 20% decline in sterling. There may be a little short term delay in that happening whilst things settle down with a new PM. But I have held London property since the mid 1980s.SeanT said:
They are about to discover how important London is to the British economy.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I spoke to my favourite mortgage advisor (45+) and they said that the housing market in Hampshire is fine and they are up more than 25% on the volume of business they did 2 years ago. They are about to expand their staff.SeanT said:
IF the housing market collapses then all bets are off. It will change public opinion overnight. Will Theresa trigger A50 as the economy tanks? I don't see how she can.TOPPING said:
yes but it's all fine when confidence is high and the property market is buoyant.RepublicanTory said:
EXCELLENT commentMaxPB said:
It's a stupid business model, they want people to invest in an illiquid asset while saying they can provide liquid funds for people who want out. Hopefully these funds all close.SeanT said:Another property fund suspended.
http://www.cityam.com/244894/henderson-becomes-fourth-firm-close-commercial-property
Hmpf.
First sensible comment on the subject that I have heard in the past few days. The average business correspondent seems to know the square roof of FA
(disclosure -i work in the property sector)
Still a big IF though.0 -
How did Theresa May get on with Lib Dem ministers in the Home Office? Innocent face.0
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Didn't Cameron specifically order the Caninet Secretary not to prepare? Or is that more project fear guff?IanB2 said:
We broke the eggs, you make the omelette...SeanT said:
Yes, it did. And I thought it was unlikely. I also thought the Brexiteers would have an obvious plan to announce on Day 1 - move to EEA in the interim, etc, to prevent exactly this kind of mood contagion.IanB2 said:
Did none of that occur to you until the walk back from the polling station? jeezSeanT said:
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
My personal confidence began to falter when they said No, we haven't got a plan, don;t be silly, the government should have had a plan. And then we discovered the government didn't have a plan either.
They all just fucking disappeared for five days, on both sides. The only one who manned up was Mark Carney.
It is in danger of turning into a total catastrophe.0 -
And the late 80s boom was nothing in comparison to the situation in London today.Sean_F said:
1990-93 was the perfect storm for London property. I bought a flat for £79,000 in 1990, which was valued at about £33,000 by 1993. But, I just let it out and sold when the market recovered. And, that was by no means unusual. But, by 1992-93, outstanding buying opportunities had opened up.SeanT said:
Dude there are times when I am all Mister PanickyPants, winner of Most Bipolar Man in Britain award, eight years running, and there are times when I am calmly pointing at the facts.Patrick said:SeanT: Have a beer. Have a blowjob. Keep calm and carry on.
And the facts, right now, are fucking worrying. This COULD be the perfect storm for the British economy, as confidence collapses, investment stops, property slumps, the City has a heart attack, tax take nosedives, the deficit becomes unaffordable, and so forth.
This is a breeze by comparison.
This bubble is bigger, and the bust could be bigger too, supported (or not as the case may be) by worsening fundamentals, an exodus of talent and capital, political and constitutional chaos and a currency crisis.0
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