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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

ConHome has published the results of a new survey of CON members. This is NOT a proper poll but CONHome can point to how close their member survey was in 2005 getting Cameron’s victory margin almost dead on.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36707266
so good I had to post it twice...
May is only going to get weaker, she's got years of experience but consequently years more baggage. Leadsom could flop as people see more of her, or she could end up sweeping past her.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/
Still, anything which shifts the odds away from May is good news for punters.
Hotels thrive on people staying for short and long terms, however they wouldn't last long if they were not allowed to limit the number of guests to the number of beds available and had to accomodate anyone who turned up.....
Sadly we didn't get that, however I'd say this looks VERY promising for Leadsom. She should be able to count on all of Fox's support which takes her up to 43%, meaning she'd only need 60% of the Gove backers to fall in behind her.
She also has the advantage of being a relatively unknown quantity, who has the potential to win over more people as they get to see more of her. Of course, it could also go the other way if she underperforms!
It's a very grimdark (lots of sex and explicit violence), low-magic, high budget, really rather good series.
They're a form of expert, after all.
It's probably a good result for May considering the audience.
Am I right in thinking the last YouGov Con leadership poll included Boris?
Who is IDS supporting?
The country is crying out for a centrist, steadying force. If these two parties don't give us one then the vacuum will be soon filled by a new party.
(in answer to your question I believe IDS is supporting Andrea)
The introduction of welfare caps meant they had to find a different client base and they went for the migrant load, opting to convert houses into multiple bedsits.
Now that stream might be cut off how are they going to get away with asking £1500 a month to live in a dump like Tottenham, Edmonton or Manor Park?
They will panic.
I used to regularly take part in those early Conhom polls as well as posting on the site in the run up to the last Conservative leadership contest. But I haven't posted or taken part in one of their surveys in years now, I suspect that their regular readership has changed quite a lot and will include a lot of wishful Ukippers which is bound to skew this poll.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36701273
The truth is it is a very well produced TV show based on the works of G R R Martin, which are fantasy novels with dark and brutal elements (which lesser copiers mistake as the whole point), and which has a very large cast and intricate plots and has received praise for its depth, acting and unpredictability, but has also faced criticism for over the top or gratuitous violence and sex (though I must say the past season had far less of the 'sexposition' - a term for where exposition of information was done with someone naked in the scene, presumably to make it more interesting - than the early seasons). And of course many people do not like fantasy stories or medieval setting stories, of which it is both.
There have been far darker and more twisted shows.
I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?
I don't know why Leadsom attracts such ire. She's plainly a mainstream Conservative.
Of course, those who prefer a more tasteful fantasy (whilst still with a dash of grimness) should buy Bane of Souls and Journey to Altmortis, by me:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/
"get a tie and a shave you scruffy little git you are on national telly"
Lo and behold he's reporting on the 6.30 news tonight with a tie on and a clean shave. Wonder how long it will last?
http://www.besnuggled.co.uk/BeSnuggled-Terms-and-FAQ
"(2) Subject to Schedule 2 to this Act, at any time after its passing Her Majesty may by Order in Council, and any designated Minister or department may by regulations, make provision-
(a) for the purpose of implementing any Community obligation of the United Kingdom, or enabling any such obligation to be implemented, or of enabling any rights enjoyed or to be enjoyed by the United Kingdom under or by virtue of the Treaties to be exercised ; "
Does that mean Article 50 can be 'authorised' by Order in Council?
OGH gets a mention. A proper bit of celebrity name-dropping on the author's part ☺
As for Martin's work being sub-Tolkien, can't agree. The first three books knock the socks off LoTR for depth and realism. Sadly, the quality has declined thereafter. The TV series has now outpaced the books, generally to its detriment. Still worthwhile though.
Mr. F, I do bang on about it, but Sean McGlynn's By Sword and Fire (which examines morality in the Middle Ages (mostly warfare)) is really very good, and proved incredibly useful for my trilogy when deciding how harsh, wise, merciful and brutal to be.
One of my beta readers (who tends to be immensely critical) actually singled out a short section on morality in the first book as being particularly good.
Joking apart, Leadsom may yet prove an effective minister, and possibly one day Prime Minister - but not, remotely, yet.
What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?
If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?
Or did I mishear the news today ?
I've often said I dislike a lot of modern fantasy as it's too bloody grim and depressing for its own good, with characters too dark, reprehensible and hopeless to be interesting to follow, but GoT, while skirting that line at times and those following in its wake being partly responsible, I feel is well written enough to avoid it. There's just enough levity, humanity and, now, even hope. And I'm pleased to see a bit of a resurgence of more optimistic, fun fantasy in recent years.
But that's enough GoT - fact is, it is very well produced (even if people think it well produced garbage) and even if one hates it, it's not some socially destroying evil. It'd just be a poor show.
Lord knows how he got selected for Havant!
It will go up to the Supreme Court, and pretty quickly, and I shouldn't be surprised if they rule that the PM has the absolute executive right to trigger Art 50 and it doesn't need an Act of Parliament.
My concern is that if this is dealt with too quickly, it might scupper one of our reasons for procrastination we could deploy in Brussels if the PM tries to argue that constitutionally it is not the PM's executive right and it will need proper consideration by parliament and will only pass if "there is a plan" and a vision of what we're negotiating for - if the Supreme Court answers it as a I expect, then that particular fox would be shot. And we might need to crack on with Brexit. Which may not be what Mischons' clients actually want...
Many thanks for your various points of view.
If I had a TV, safe to say it's something I wouldn't wish to watch.
If the EU agrees we are leaving, the UK can not make a unilateral decision that the EU is wrong.
A case where EU law trumps UK law.
Season 6 Episodes 9 and 10 may well be two of the greatest pieces of cinematography in any TV series, anywhere, ever.
They are STUNNING.
Not content with annoying his constituency association, he has also managed to annoy fellow MPs:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/backbench-plot-deprives-alan-mak-of-his-favourite-spot-at-pmqs/
May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view
Although not my cup of tea, there are sites and Twitter accounts dedicated to slightly gentler fiction (I think they're called clean reads) for those not enamoured with the current trend for grimdark fantasy.
Unsure of their view on teenage girls destroying seemingly omnipotent dystopian regimes, though...
Stupid fucking comment.
I want someone prepared to be utterly ruthless in defending Britains interests in the UK and this suggests that May 'gets it'