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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    Strikes me determining if parliament or the government itself has the power to enact Brexit is a rather vital question, whatever the motivations. Leave isn't getting stopped now, and if legally parliament must consent, then that is what shall happen.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    edited July 2016
    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,795
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

    So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?
    Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.
    We're going to be very full if EU citizens stay and Brits get repatriated......
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    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    Tell that to UK citizens living in the EU. Never mind the negotiations look at my virtue signalling.....
    Oh dear. I am agreeing with Carlotta lol
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited July 2016
    Tim_B said:

    Chris Evans gone as Top Gear host!!!!!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36707266


    so good I had to post it twice...

    Nigel Farage candidate for new Top Gear presenter?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,021
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

    I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

    As far as I understand it, apart from being thick, indecisive and inexperienced there isn't that much against her.
    Yeah - she does seem thick. Managing Director of a major financial operation in her mid thirties.

    Stupid fucking comment.
    It was simply a synthesis of what many of those who've worked with her appear to be saying today.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Looks like suicide bombers have attacked a mosque in the holy city of Medinah in Saudi.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

    So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?
    Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.
    We're going to be very full if EU citizens stay and Brits get repatriated......
    No more full than a few years down the line if we'd stayed in. Anyway, this isn't an issue. No way will rich British pensioners be kicked out of Europe.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. F, that's true, particularly as it's a later medieval world with centralised authority.

    There are issues about how accurate to make fantasy based on medieval history, though. Certain things should be avoided if possible (shouting 'fire' when using bows) but others are sometimes more malleable.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    As did the Moggster.

    He, and Leadsom, are therefore weakening the position of the Brits currently living in the EU.

    A funny first move by a supposedly pro-Brit anti-foreigner candidate.

    Or perhaps just naïve.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

    So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?
    Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.
    We're going to be very full if EU citizens stay and Brits get repatriated......
    It's like half time and we've all changed ends. I thought the Remain argument was that there's loads of room in the UK, come on in, World? I mean, Farage was completely wrong to have a poster saying 'Breaking Point', huh? Brits-wise, there's only about three years worth of immigration out in EU-land.

    Mostly tongue in cheek :).
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MP_SE said:

    chrisoxon said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    MP_SE said:

    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
    Text from Tory MP in 1922:
    "Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

    Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.
    Why do Tories dislike Mak so much?
    I think because he changed his position on Europe.
    Mak has always been an acquired taste. Those who bizarrely acquired the taste are the only ones disappointed in his stance on the EU, many thought he was an arse from the outset.

    Lord knows how he got selected for Havant!
    Google Alan Mak CV. Makes for entertaining reading.

    Not content with annoying his constituency association, he has also managed to annoy fellow MPs:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/backbench-plot-deprives-alan-mak-of-his-favourite-spot-at-pmqs/
    Hmmm seems like a lot of people are looking for reasons not to like him. Seen it before with other Tory ethnic minorities in the party. Tbh.

    Also he was selected in an open primary so has more of a mandate than most Tories in safe seats, he changed his mind on Europe but so have other MP's the criticism has been there since he was selected and it is subtle racism. Deny it or not.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,795

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

    So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?
    Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.
    Oh yes we should retaliate. This is realpolitik, not a time for fluffy emotionalism.
    I think it's only now dawning on some LEAVErs that ending free movement might have "consequences" not all of them simple or easy.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    Rubbish. Shows inexperience in these sorts of negotiations to me.

    I want someone prepared to be utterly ruthless in defending Britains interests in the UK and this suggests that May 'gets it'
    You don't normally win negotiations by being confrontational.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    Rubbish. Shows inexperience in these sorts of negotiations to me.

    I want someone prepared to be utterly ruthless in defending Britains interests in the UK and this suggests that May 'gets it'
    You don't normally win negotiations by being confrontational.
    Completely agree with you. I don't get the sense that we're carrying the room though ;).
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    Shown bad judgement actually there will be a huge rise in migrants from the E.U if this was government policy. And we don't know if Brits will have reciprocal arrangements.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    If the SNP votes down the result of a Brexit referendum it sets a precedent for the UK parliament to vote down the result of any Scotland independence referendum.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    Rubbish. Shows inexperience in these sorts of negotiations to me.

    I want someone prepared to be utterly ruthless in defending Britains interests in the UK and this suggests that May 'gets it'
    You don't normally win negotiations by being confrontational.
    Or win at poker playing with all your cards face up.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

    So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?
    Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.
    Oh yes we should retaliate. This is realpolitik, not a time for fluffy emotionalism.
    I think it's only now dawning on some LEAVErs that ending free movement might have "consequences" not all of them simple or easy.
    If the consequence was that my government were going to start being giant cocks, well no, I hadn't fully appreciated that. Give yourself one Internet point.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,795

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    Rubbish. Shows inexperience in these sorts of negotiations to me.

    I want someone prepared to be utterly ruthless in defending Britains interests in the UK and this suggests that May 'gets it'
    You don't normally win negotiations by being confrontational.
    Nor do well by making concessions before you've got to the table.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2016
    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    If Leadsom wins can the last person leaving Britain please turn off the light.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    Pulpstar said:

    Re GoT

    Season 6 Episodes 9 and 10 may well be two of the greatest pieces of cinematography in any TV series, anywhere, ever.

    They are STUNNING.

    Episode 10 at least. The coup in Kings Landing is up there with the Baptism/Execution scene at the end of The Godfather.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @Paristonda

    SNP would vote against as Sturgeon won't want to lose credibility. There are probably 30+ Europhile Tories, Damian Green, Geo Osborne (!), David Cameron (!), Clare Perry etc etc
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008

    RobD said:

    John_N4 said:

    This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

    The rabid and superficial style of Tom Harris's piece matches its mistaken content. He doesn't understand the argument he's opposing. The will of parliament is expressed in the European Communities Act 1972. Invoking Article 50 would negate that Act. Barrack-room lawyers can argue the toss about the difference between repealing a statute and making it into a dead letter, but they can't seriously deny that Article 50 negates the effect of the Act that took Britain into the EU. The point is that the royal prerogative cannot undo the will of parliament. Mishcon de Reya are wholly right, and the courts will agree.
    Part 1 Section 2 (2) suggests that HM can by Order in Council exercise any right enjoyed by the UK in the treaties:

    "(2) Subject to Schedule 2 to this Act, at any time after its passing Her Majesty may by Order in Council, and any designated Minister or department may by regulations, make provision-
    (a) for the purpose of implementing any Community obligation of the United Kingdom, or enabling any such obligation to be implemented, or of enabling any rights enjoyed or to be enjoyed by the United Kingdom under or by virtue of the Treaties to be exercised ; "

    Does that mean Article 50 can be 'authorised' by Order in Council?
    The EU Commission will accept any letter from the new PM saying they are invoking Article 50. It is the EU's Article 50 not the UK's Article 50.

    If the EU agrees we are leaving, the UK can not make a unilateral decision that the EU is wrong.

    A case where EU law trumps UK law.

    Article 50 says

    "1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. ..."

    It doesn't say the PM but the State in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    The constitutional requirements are the issue.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    I'd love Leadsom to be Tory leader. But as a British citizen the thought of her as PM is terrifying.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209
    John_M said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

    So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?
    Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.
    Oh yes we should retaliate. This is realpolitik, not a time for fluffy emotionalism.
    I think it's only now dawning on some LEAVErs that ending free movement might have "consequences" not all of them simple or easy.
    If the consequence was that my government were going to start being giant cocks, well no, I hadn't fully appreciated that. Give yourself one Internet point.
    And notice it's the Remain politicians that are doing it. Like I said earlier on this thread, it's as though the Remainers don't realise they lost. They think they are still playing the make Leave look horrible game. The only problem is, they are the ones proposing doing the horrible things.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Standard Life suspends trading in UK property fund"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708844
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    TOPPING said:

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    As did the Moggster.

    He, and Leadsom, are therefore weakening the position of the Brits currently living in the EU.

    A funny first move by a supposedly pro-Brit anti-foreigner candidate.

    Or perhaps just naïve.
    Or perhaps Leadsom has greater insight into human behaviour.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Bob, without other consideration, there must be 450-500 Remain MPs in the Commons.

    But voting against the referendum result would be an event perhaps more seismic than the result itself.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Wow, making up an edge case to prove a point? That's almost completely unknown. I'm so surprised to see it happening on PB.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    ...Kendo Clarke... Kris Hopkins...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    nunu said:

    Hmmm seems like a lot of people are looking for reasons not to like him. Seen it before with other Tory ethnic minorities in the party. Tbh.

    Also he was selected in an open primary so has more of a mandate than most Tories in safe seats, he changed his mind on Europe but so have other MP's the criticism has been there since he was selected and it is subtle racism. Deny it or not.

    I've met him. He came sniffing around Wealden looking for a safe seat. A remarkable man in many ways, but, let's put it this way, you are 100% wrong.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    If the SNP votes down the result of a Brexit referendum it sets a precedent for the UK parliament to vote down the result of any Scotland independence referendum.

    Why would the UK Parliament want to do that?

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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited July 2016
    kle4 said:

    John_N4 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cheers for the answers.

    (snip)

    What is Game of Thrones? I mean, is it a series with an overall theme, or a game show type thing, or what?
    (snip)
    If ever there was a case not for censorship but for an outright government ban...
    Matters of taste and quality will of course differ, but much of this is absolute bollocks, particularly the bit about the actresses.
    Here are some names: Jessica Jensen, Samantha Bentley, Maisie Dee, Aeryn Walker, Sahara Knite, Sibel Kekilli. Okay they are not most of the leading actresses, but they're quite a long list to be going on with.

    "very well produced", "fantasy novels with dark and brutal elements (which lesser copiers mistake as the whole point)"

    He has lesser copiers? Do they write on toilet walls or what?

    The "Song of Ice and Fire" books on which this TV trash is based have a reading age of 11, and even so the "book readers" are still condemned as some kind of intellectuals by those who promote the TV series.

    If you want to check what I just wrote, apply the SMOG readability test. Count the number of words of more than 2 syllables in 30 sentences. Martin keeps to about 5. Tolkien uses about 66.

    "a very large cast and intricate plots and has received praise for its depth, acting and unpredictability"

    God almighty! In other words it's a badly written soap opera structured around acts of depravity.

    "And of course many people do not like fantasy stories or medieval setting stories, of which it is both."

    Such use of the notion of a "fantasy" genre that includes works such as this filth along with works of great literary merit such as Tolkien's is marketing. You might as well call Jane Austen "chick lit". It is wrong to regurgitate it, because of a few dragons or whatever.

    As for its mediaeval setting, who cares what costumes are worn when a pregnant woman is shown as being stabbed to death through the belly? I don't care whether she's dressed in 14th century clothes, a Mao suit or a ballet tutu. The author has claimed that he's bringing his audience the truth not just about the middle ages but about human society in general. Ban it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    I don't think anyone during the campaign suggested that the policy be retroactive. For the example you mentioned, he had acquired the lifetime right to live here based on his EU citizenship.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Charlie Evans has resigned.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    I'd love Leadsom to be Tory leader. But as a British citizen the thought of her as PM is terrifying.

    More or less terrifying than Corbyn as PM?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    I'd love Leadsom to be Tory leader. But as a British citizen the thought of her as PM is terrifying.

    Trump would love her though, I could see a Thatcher and Reagan relationship develop between the two if she becomes PM and he wins the presidency
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    John_M said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Wow, making up an edge case to prove a point? That's almost completely unknown. I'm so surprised to see it happening on PB.
    It's not an edge case. Or at least, the Leavers told us the country was being overrun with low-skill EU immigrants forcing down wages. Are you suggesting they were talking absolute bollocks?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. N4, could you amend that post to remove the spoiler? Didn't bother me personally, but others may be unaware. Cheers.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    Jobabob said:

    @Paristonda

    SNP would vote against as Sturgeon won't want to lose credibility. There are probably 30+ Europhile Tories, Damian Green, Geo Osborne (!), David Cameron (!), Clare Perry etc etc

    I expect that Conservatives who voted against Brexit now would lose the Whip.
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    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

    So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?
    Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.
    Oh yes we should retaliate. This is realpolitik, not a time for fluffy emotionalism.
    I think it's only now dawning on some LEAVErs that ending free movement might have "consequences" not all of them simple or easy.
    It will, but it is a price that has to be paid.

    To me its not about the numbers but who has their hand on the Spigot.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited July 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Charlie Evans has resigned.

    Do you mean Chris Falconer.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

    What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

    If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

    Or did I mishear the news today ?

    I doubt it's going to be an issue in any negotations. I think it will be cleared out of the way early on as agreed points before getting onto the tricky stuff. It sounds like electioneering to me
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    RobD said:

    This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

    Would the exit proceedings begin as soon as the EU receives the PM's notification, or would they wait to hear an outcome of such a trial?
    For the sake of the Queens Peace, I dearly hope the former.
    Will it go to the ECJ eventually?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Game of Thrones is the only TV series I've bothered to watch in the last 7 years...

    Orphan Black has its moments.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,627

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    So we have a candidate for the leadership of the Conservative Party together with ministers refusing to rule out what would amount to forced repatriation of foreign nationals whom the UK had previous allowed to settle here. Bargaining chip or not, that is far beyond the pale and May ought to be pilloried for it. It is tempting to draw the parallel with the 1960s and 1970s except that the stance of May would go beyond even the voluntary repatriation advocated by Powell.


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    nunu said:

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    Shown bad judgement actually there will be a huge rise in migrants from the E.U if this was government policy. And we don't know if Brits will have reciprocal arrangements.
    Not if you set a date such as from 23 June or 1st August etc.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    John_M said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Wow, making up an edge case to prove a point? That's almost completely unknown. I'm so surprised to see it happening on PB.
    It's not an edge case. Or at least, the Leavers told us the country was being overrun with low-skill EU immigrants forcing down wages. Are you suggesting they were talking absolute bollocks?
    Richard - the referendum is over. I didn't vote to leave, you didn't vote to leave. But we are where we are.

    Again - do you think it acceptable for current EU migrants working and living here to be used as political pawns in May's game ?
    I certainly haven't heard the Spanish come out with anything like this - bringing it up now is both inhumane and poor tactically.
    Do you not think we need just a dash of goodwill when we're negotiating with other EU countries ?
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    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    tlg86 said:

    I'd love Leadsom to be Tory leader. But as a British citizen the thought of her as PM is terrifying.

    More or less terrifying than Corbyn as PM?

    As destructive. And you wouldn't want either near the Brexit negotiations.

    Can't believe the Tories would be so stupid.

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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Mr. Bob, without other consideration, there must be 450-500 Remain MPs in the Commons.

    But voting against the referendum result would be an event perhaps more seismic than the result itself.

    Let's do it. We have an avowed Marxist who wants to overthrow capitalism as Loto despite a rebellion of 80% of MPs. The public have just voted to leave the EU on the back of 2.8 million votes from people who never vote. People are seriously discussing a woman no-one had ever heard of two weeks ago for PM despite the fact she would invoke Article 50 without having a plan in place to protect our place in the single market, thus willingly wrecking the UK economy. Charlie Falconer has resigned.

    I'm mean really, things can't get any weirder.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Sean_F said:

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    Jobabob said:

    @Paristonda

    SNP would vote against as Sturgeon won't want to lose credibility. There are probably 30+ Europhile Tories, Damian Green, Geo Osborne (!), David Cameron (!), Clare Perry etc etc

    I expect that Conservatives who voted against Brexit now would lose the Whip.
    If it was an EEA type solution from May I can imagine the threat of losing the whip being enough to keep them in line. But if it's a completely out option, with a leader preferred amongst members not MPs, would the europhile's still vote it through? Labour MPs may be useless at rebellions but the Tories generally have a better knack for it!
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2016

    Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

    May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

    I don't think that's a tactical move. EU migrants in the UK need to be reassured that they aren't going to be deported en masse.

    Government ministers should have been saying this every day since the referendum result came in, and probably during the referendum campaign too.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    John_N4 said:

    kle4 said:

    John_N4 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cheers for the answers.

    (snip)

    What is Game of Thrones? I mean, is it a series with an overall theme, or a game show type thing, or what?
    (snip)
    If ever there was a case not for censorship but for an outright government ban...
    Matters of taste and quality will of course differ, but much of this is absolute bollocks, particularly the bit about the actresses.
    Here are some names: Jessica Jensen, Samantha Bentley, Maisie Dee, Aeryn Walker, Sahara Knite, Sibel Kekilli. Okay they are not most of the leading actresses, but they're quite a long list to be going on with.

    "very well produced", "fantasy novels with dark and brutal elements (which lesser copiers mistake as the whole point)"

    He has lesser copiers? Do they write on toilet walls or what?

    The "Song of Ice and Fire" books on which this TV trash is based have a reading age of 11, and even so the "book readers" are still condemned as some kind of intellectuals by those who promote the TV series.

    If you want to check what I just wrote, apply the SMOG readability test. Count the number of words of more than 2 syllables in 30 sentences. Martin keeps to about 5. Tolkien uses about 66.

    "a very large cast and intricate plots and has received praise for its depth, acting and unpredictability"

    God almighty! In other words it's a badly written soap opera structured around acts of depravity.

    "And of course many people do not like fantasy stories or medieval setting stories, of which it is both."

    Such use of the notion of a "fantasy" genre that includes works such as this filth along with works of great literary merit such as Tolkien's is marketing. You might as well call Jane Austen "chick lit". It is wrong to regurgitate it, because of a few dragons or whatever.

    As for its mediaeval setting, who cares what costumes are worn when a pregnant woman is shown as being stabbed to death through the belly? I don't care whether she's dressed in 14th century clothes, a Mao suit or a ballet tutu. The author has claimed that he's bringing his audience the truth not just about the middle ages but about human society in general. Ban it.
    The books have received enormous critical acclaim. Martin is not a hack who got lucky, like Harold Robbins, or Erica James, or Sidney Sheldon. He's won loads of literary awards.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Bob, of course they can.

    A few centuries ago there were two Popes.

    And then there were three Popes.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    I would prefer the immigrants we have here as well, but we could end up with both unless a proper settlement is reached.....of course I am over egging it for drama.
    Essentially what I expect to happen is current residents stay as they are, new entrants have different entry requirements but at the moment there is technically no plan.
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    Sean_F said:

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    Jobabob said:

    @Paristonda

    SNP would vote against as Sturgeon won't want to lose credibility. There are probably 30+ Europhile Tories, Damian Green, Geo Osborne (!), David Cameron (!), Clare Perry etc etc

    I expect that Conservatives who voted against Brexit now would lose the Whip.
    If it was an EEA type solution from May I can imagine the threat of losing the whip being enough to keep them in line. But if it's a completely out option, with a leader preferred amongst members not MPs, would the europhile's still vote it through? Labour MPs may be useless at rebellions but the Tories generally have a better knack for it!
    There would be a lot of Labour MPs nervously looking at their seats who would either abstain or vote to send the Article 50 letter.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    Mr. Bob, of course they can.

    A few centuries ago there were two Popes.

    And then there were three Popes.

    And in the future there will be Space Pope (aka Crocodylus Pontifex) :D
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard - the referendum is over. I didn't vote to leave, you didn't vote to leave. But we are where we are.

    Again - do you think it acceptable for current EU migrants working and living here to be used as political pawns in May's game ?
    I certainly haven't heard the Spanish come out with anything like this - bringing it up now is both inhumane and poor tactically.
    Do you not think we need just a dash of goodwill when we're negotiating with other EU countries ?

    Of course we need lots of goodwill, and a sensible negotiation. Phil Hammond and Theresa May would be perfect for that.

    This is an entirely synthetic row. They are just stating the obvious. And of course EU leaders have made the same point in reverse.
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    Mr. Bob, of course they can.

    A few centuries ago there were two Popes.

    And then there were three Popes.

    There are two Popes at the moment.
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited July 2016
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquiured a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
    And this shows that she has a bit of backbone when it comes to negotiating.

    Dont for a minute think it would come to that, but the other side needs to know that if necessary you are prepared to metaphorically sink the French fleet at Mers el Kebir, otherwise we would get walked all over.
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    In some ways this poll is bad news for Leadsom as it makes it more likely some of May's supporters will vote tactically for Gove
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited July 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, without other consideration, there must be 450-500 Remain MPs in the Commons.

    But voting against the referendum result would be an event perhaps more seismic than the result itself.

    Let's do it. We have an avowed Marxist who wants to overthrow capitalism as Loto despite a rebellion of 80% of MPs. The public have just voted to leave the EU on the back of 2.8 million votes from people who never vote. People are seriously discussing a woman no-one had ever heard of two weeks ago for PM despite the fact she would invoke Article 50 without having a plan in place to protect our place in the single market, thus willingly wrecking the UK economy. Charlie Falconer has resigned.

    I'm mean really, things can't get any weirder.
    If Falconer really has resigned that is clearly a disaster for the country.

    But the fact people have not previously heard of Leadsom is surely a comment about them rather than Leadsom?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,476
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

    What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

    If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

    Or did I mishear the news today ?

    I doubt it's going to be an issue in any negotations. I think it will be cleared out of the way early on as agreed points before getting onto the tricky stuff. It sounds like electioneering to me
    That post-Brexit residency status is an issue up for negotiation isn't electioneering or politicking or using people as pawns/bargaining chips, it is a simple statement of fact. Unless the EU and UK agree a deal regarding status ( which I'm sure they will) then their status will change. It's a direct and foreseeable consequence of voting Leave so it is pretty galling to see Leave politicians queuing up to bash someone else for the consequences of their advocacy.
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    Unimpressed by Andrea's launch speech which despite being very short, she evidently had to read. She clearly doesn't possess Dave's talent for committing speeches, even very long ones, to memory. Consequently she didn't come across very well by comparison.

    ***Thinks*** We'll only miss him when he's gone ...... too true .
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I hereby rename her

    ANDREA LEADMOST
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Theresa May. Andrea Won't.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Sean_F said:

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    Jobabob said:

    @Paristonda

    SNP would vote against as Sturgeon won't want to lose credibility. There are probably 30+ Europhile Tories, Damian Green, Geo Osborne (!), David Cameron (!), Clare Perry etc etc

    I expect that Conservatives who voted against Brexit now would lose the Whip.
    If it was an EEA type solution from May I can imagine the threat of losing the whip being enough to keep them in line. But if it's a completely out option, with a leader preferred amongst members not MPs, would the europhile's still vote it through? Labour MPs may be useless at rebellions but the Tories generally have a better knack for it!
    My view is they would vote for EEA but not CO.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,795
    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates.
    1. There are around 1.2 million British born people living in another EU country, according to figures provided by the UN. Around 800,000 will be workers and their dependants. This is much less than the estimated 3.3 million people born in another EU country who now live in the UK, of which 2.1 million are working.

    http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806
    I am confused by this thread. Any deal with the EU requires the agreement of the EU, which formally requires Article 50 to be executed first. Even if the UK took informal soundings the actual negotiation and confirmation of the deal takes place afterwards. The new PM can get Parliament to agree any negotiating strategy she wishes. She can even put it to a referendum, but it's only an initial negotiating position that will disappear on first contact with the enemy.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Sean_F said:

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    Jobabob said:

    @Paristonda

    SNP would vote against as Sturgeon won't want to lose credibility. There are probably 30+ Europhile Tories, Damian Green, Geo Osborne (!), David Cameron (!), Clare Perry etc etc

    I expect that Conservatives who voted against Brexit now would lose the Whip.
    If it was an EEA type solution from May I can imagine the threat of losing the whip being enough to keep them in line. But if it's a completely out option, with a leader preferred amongst members not MPs, would the europhile's still vote it through? Labour MPs may be useless at rebellions but the Tories generally have a better knack for it!
    It's not in the gift of the House of Commons.

    The outcome is the result of negotiation with the EU. Given the end of free movement, if the EU says no deal other than World Trade tariffs then the HoC can not vote for EFTA.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
    And this shows that she has a bit of backbone when it comes to negotiating.
    Paris and Frankfurt will be delighted that City workers from the EU are having their status put in question by the presumptive UK PM.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    This is the first holistic survey of the UK & EU outlook over the next couple of years, or at least, the first I've seen.

    https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1668576&SctArtId=393248&from=CM&nsl_code=LIME&sourceObjectId=9706178&sourceRevId=1&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20260704-14:55:10

    Could be right, could be wrong. Worth skimming at least.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Unimpressed by Andrea's launch speech which despite being very short, she evidently had to read. She clearly doesn't possess Dave's talent for committing speeches, even very long ones, to memory. Consequently she didn't come across very well by comparison.

    ***Thinks*** We'll only miss him when he's gone ...... too true .

    Boris is the best speech maker but he is not a candidate.
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    In some ways this poll is bad news for Leadsom as it makes it more likely some of May's supporters will vote tactically for Gove

    Did you also think LEAVE would lose?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    edited July 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Wow, making up an edge case to prove a point? That's almost completely unknown. I'm so surprised to see it happening on PB.
    It's not an edge case. Or at least, the Leavers told us the country was being overrun with low-skill EU immigrants forcing down wages. Are you suggesting they were talking absolute bollocks?
    Richard - the referendum is over. I didn't vote to leave, you didn't vote to leave. But we are where we are.

    Again - do you think it acceptable for current EU migrants working and living here to be used as political pawns in May's game ?
    I certainly haven't heard the Spanish come out with anything like this - bringing it up now is both inhumane and poor tactically.
    Do you not think we need just a dash of goodwill when we're negotiating with other EU countries ?

    Pulps- is that your cat? He looks very much like our Tyson, who is now buried in the garden of a very, very famous Tory. Honest. Sadly, he met his end at the hands of a cyclist in Oxford.

    I think your cat would make an excellent leader of the Labour party, but in the interim, teach him (or her) to be wary of roads.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    Tick Tock for Tony Blair and senior British military commanders.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    Sean_F said:

    Surely there is no hope of Leadsom getting her true believer plans through the house? I can't comment on the poll, perhaps we need to see a few more, trend is the friend etc.

    How many genuine Tory europhile MPs are there? Ones that have long been on the record about their pro-euness, like Soubry or Clarke? If it's more than 30 they could cause real trouble to any brexit plans anyway (12 to knock out con majority, 7 to cover labour leavers, 8 to cover DUP).

    Could depend on if the SNP abstain or not (they may do if it helps their independence cause, but I think they would probably still vote against)

    Jobabob said:

    @Paristonda

    SNP would vote against as Sturgeon won't want to lose credibility. There are probably 30+ Europhile Tories, Damian Green, Geo Osborne (!), David Cameron (!), Clare Perry etc etc

    I expect that Conservatives who voted against Brexit now would lose the Whip.
    If it was an EEA type solution from May I can imagine the threat of losing the whip being enough to keep them in line. But if it's a completely out option, with a leader preferred amongst members not MPs, would the europhile's still vote it through? Labour MPs may be useless at rebellions but the Tories generally have a better knack for it!
    It's not in the gift of the House of Commons.

    The outcome is the result of negotiation with the EU. Given the end of free movement, if the EU says no deal other than World Trade tariffs then the HoC can not vote for EFTA.
    It is not up to the EU whether we join EFTA. It is up to the EFTA members. Since you are referring specifically to EFTA then bear in mind the EU has absolutely no say whatsoever over the makeup of EFTA.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,795

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
    And this shows that she has a bit of backbone when it comes to negotiating.
    Paris and Frankfurt will be delighted that City workers from the EU are having their status put in question by the presumptive UK PM.
    Their status was put in question by the vote to LEAVE.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Bedforshire, that's true, but one's largely retired and they aren't in conflict with one another.
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    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
    And this shows that she has a bit of backbone when it comes to negotiating.
    Paris and Frankfurt will be delighted that City workers from the EU are having their status put in question by the presumptive UK PM.
    Why couldn't the UK just grant visas for financial workers?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    PLP are meeting. Sounds like Kinnock has moved MPs to tears.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,445
    edited July 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    John_M said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Wow, making up an edge case to prove a point? That's almost completely unknown. I'm so surprised to see it happening on PB.
    It's not an edge case. Or at least, the Leavers told us the country was being overrun with low-skill EU immigrants forcing down wages. Are you suggesting they were talking absolute bollocks?
    Richard - the referendum is over. I didn't vote to leave, you didn't vote to leave. But we are where we are.

    Again - do you think it acceptable for current EU migrants working and living here to be used as political pawns in May's game ?
    I certainly haven't heard the Spanish come out with anything like this - bringing it up now is both inhumane and poor tactically.
    Do you not think we need just a dash of goodwill when we're negotiating with other EU countries ?
    While in all likelihood this will be sorted sharpish, as has been mentioned, the issue could also be the first taste of "real life" that a post-EU UK will face. Of course we all assume that everyone will be all touchy feely about our departure and that we can have more or less the same deal we had but with fewer foreigners.

    But this is real politik and geopolitical reality. Nations negotiate to gain advantage. Although we might all want a group hug, what guarantee is there that France or Spain will agree to the existing circumstances? Because we hope or want them to? Much will be gained by hard-nosed negotiation and if I was a Brit living abroad in the EU I would be spitting feathers at being told that the UK had gone solo on allowing EU citizens to stay in the UK with absolutely zip in return.

    An indication of how much growing up Brexiteers have to do is that on DP today, the Moggster said that as from June 23rd, ie two weeks ago, or very soon if not then, no EU citizen should have the right to remain in the UK. What do you suppose the leaders of EU27 would do or think or implement if Moggster's man, or Leadsom if she thinks the same, became PM in a matter of weeks?

    This shit just got real.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Unimpressed by Andrea's launch speech which despite being very short, she evidently had to read. She clearly doesn't possess Dave's talent for committing speeches, even very long ones, to memory. Consequently she didn't come across very well by comparison.

    ***Thinks*** We'll only miss him when he's gone ...... too true .

    I'm baffled that you would give a fig about such trivia.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
    And this shows that she has a bit of backbone when it comes to negotiating.
    Paris and Frankfurt will be delighted that City workers from the EU are having their status put in question by the presumptive UK PM.
    Their status was put in question by the vote to LEAVE.
    It was only the REMAIN camp that suggested repatriation of EU citizens if LEAVE won. The LEAVE camp always said there would be no repatriation. Leadsom and Gove sticking with that statement.

    Remainer May is threatening repatriation. The moment she lost the chance to be PM.
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    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Richard, I don't find you in the least pompous - in fact you are one of the most modest, polite and courteous posters on PB.com, a fact that I feel sure would be fully endorsed by Mike Smithson as well as by political adversaries such as Nick Palmer.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 1h1 hour ago
    Bob Conquest: The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any organization is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies.

    What will UKIP do under this theory?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
    And this shows that she has a bit of backbone when it comes to negotiating.
    Paris and Frankfurt will be delighted that City workers from the EU are having their status put in question by the presumptive UK PM.
    54

    Fifty fking four

    that's the number of asylum seekers all German DAX companies have employed since the crisis

    dont give me crap about the great employment opportunities in the EU they dont exist

    more likely UK companies will employ more German asylum seekers by the end of the year.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    John_N4 said:

    kle4 said:

    John_N4 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cheers for the answers.

    (snip)

    What is Game of Thrones? I mean, is it a series with an overall theme, or a game show type thing, or what?
    (snip)
    If ever there was a case not for censorship but for an outright government ban...
    Matters of taste and quality will of course differ, but much of this is absolute bollocks, particularly the bit about the actresses.
    Here are some names: Jessica Jensen, Samantha Bentley, Maisie Dee, Aeryn Walker, Sahara Knite, Sibel Kekilli. Okay they are not most of the leading actresses, but they're quite a long list to be going on with.

    "very well produced", "fantasy novels with dark and brutal elements (which lesser copiers mistake as the whole point)"

    He has lesser copiers? Do they write on toilet walls or what?

    The "Song of Ice and Fire" books on which this TV trash is based have a reading age of 11, and even so the "book readers" are still condemned as some kind of intellectuals by those who promote the TV series.

    If you want to check what I just wrote, apply the SMOG readability test. Count the number of words of more than 2 syllables in 30 sentences. Martin keeps to about 5. Tolkien uses about 66.

    .
    That is not a "bigger is better" test. I just did the exercise on the first thirty (superb) sentences of Cormac McCarthy's (classic) "The Road" and got 8. Does that mean Tolkien is over 8 times as good a writer as McCarthy? If you think literary merit is judged by word counts, I would steer clear of literary criticism altogether.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    PLP are meeting. Sounds like Kinnock has moved MPs to tears.

    He reminded them Corbyn is leader!

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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    So, to be clear, those people (mainly hard-core Leavers) criticising Theresa May and Philip Hammond for making the sensible point that the residence status of EU citizens will depend on the outcome of the outcome of the negotiation are saying that a Romanian who has been here four months and is now working in a hand car-wash has acquired a lifetime right to live here? And that that should remain true even if our EU friends don't extend the same courtesy to Brits living in their countries? Have I got this interpretation of 'getting control of our borders' correct?

    Considering most Brits abroad are idle oldies who are tight arses, and have a range of chronic conditions- shut the gates. Give me the Romanian car washer any day, any time, any place.

    Leadsom has got it right on this one.

    Nabavi- as much as I don't do personal comments here, you never fail to be extremely pompous.
    Proof, if indeed proof is necessary that May has got this one right
    Actually I am rooting for May. She is being too clever by half on this one I'm afraid.

    Considering the Tory leadership contest is about my PM (apart from Renzi- a very good chap here)- my choice would be Theresa hands down. She might lack some charisma, but I have always rated her extremely highly.
    And this shows that she has a bit of backbone when it comes to negotiating.
    Paris and Frankfurt will be delighted that City workers from the EU are having their status put in question by the presumptive UK PM.
    Why couldn't the UK just grant visas for financial workers?
    There are loads of options,but currently the UK has not settle on a negotiating position so committing to one aspect limits future wiggle room.
    I speak as someone who is in a long term relationship with an EU citizen in this country, I am not worried as no one would be stupid enough to throw out current residents...apart from Farage.
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    In some ways this poll is bad news for Leadsom as it makes it more likely some of May's supporters will vote tactically for Gove

    Did you also think LEAVE would lose?
    No I bet on leave. My point is May might have enough MPs to choose her opponent.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008
    FF43 said:

    I am confused by this thread. Any deal with the EU requires the agreement of the EU, which formally requires Article 50 to be executed first. Even if the UK took informal soundings the actual negotiation and confirmation of the deal takes place afterwards. The new PM can get Parliament to agree any negotiating strategy she wishes. She can even put it to a referendum, but it's only an initial negotiating position that will disappear on first contact with the enemy.

    I suspect that the UK negotiating team under May will agree heads of agreement on the main elements with the 27 heads of government (bypassing the Commission) before triggering Article 50. After triggering, the rest is just(!) all the fine detail and legalese that lawyers love.

    Under Leadsom however, she will trigger Article 50 immediately and give away all her leverage. I assume she doesn't care what deal we do with the EU. Trade with the rest of the world will make up the shortfall.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited July 2016

    nunu said:

    Hmmm seems like a lot of people are looking for reasons not to like him. Seen it before with other Tory ethnic minorities in the party. Tbh.

    Also he was selected in an open primary so has more of a mandate than most Tories in safe seats, he changed his mind on Europe but so have other MP's the criticism has been there since he was selected and it is subtle racism. Deny it or not.

    I've met him. He came sniffing around Wealden looking for a safe seat. A remarkable man in many ways, but, let's put it this way, you are 100% wrong.
    OK happy to retract what I said then on Mak specifically.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,627
    If this report is correct, May could have done herself some damage amongst Conservative MPs:

    "May’s stance found almost no support among her fellow Conservative MPs in the Commons, with those criticising the position including Bill Cash, Sarah Wollaston and Crispin Blunt."

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/government-refuses-guarantee-eu-citizens-living-in-uk-can-stay

    Also, if any MP concerned with minding their back is thinking of switching support now that the Con Home poll has shown that May is far from the nailed on winner, she has given them an honourable excuse for doing so.
This discussion has been closed.