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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leadsom leads in new CONHome survey of party members

ConHome has published the results of a new survey of CON members. This is NOT a proper poll but CONHome can point to how close their member survey was in 2005 getting Cameron’s victory margin almost dead on.

Read the full story here

tlg86

First like Andrea.

madasafish

If Leadsom wins, mountain to climb in 2020.

AndyJS

madasafish said:

If Leadsom wins, mountain to climb in 2020.

If Labour find someone electable.

Tim_B

Chris Evans gone as Top Gear host!!!!!

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36707266


so good I had to post it twice...

kle4

As long as she doesn't mess up, she could well win this among members. She is supposed to be competent and professional - she seemed pretty robotic to me, but there you go - and she is a true Leaver, which I think counts for more than perhaps it should, looking past her inexperience (and never mind she changed her mind, many have done).

May is only going to get weaker, she's got years of experience but consequently years more baggage. Leadsom could flop as people see more of her, or she could end up sweeping past her.

RobD

QTWTAIN?

Paul_Bedfordshire

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

Richard_Nabavi

ConHome 2016 is not ConHome 2005.

Still, anything which shifts the odds away from May is good news for punters.

AlastairMeeks

madasafish said:

If Leadsom wins, mountain to climb in 2020.

If Andrea Leadsom wins, UKIP will have engineered a slow motion coup d'état having won precisely one seat at the last general election.

Paul_Bedfordshire

chestnut said:

SeanT said:

There's no denying these are ominous signs. Property underpins the UK economy.

Brrr.

We may yet see a reversal of the vote. Or May (if she wins) has to come out and say it's EEA at the minimum, with the Single Market, so very little will change economically - to calm things.

Watch London where nearly 40% of residents are born abroad.

Many BTL landlords are dependent on a never ending flow of migrant workers to give them their yield.

A combination of the Benefits Cap, the BTL tax regime and now this are squeezing them.

The average home in London is now trading at nearly £500k -four times the level of most of the country.

The rest of the country won't feel this anywhere near as much, but London...

Being a BTL landlord and a fanatical remainer seem to go together in my anecdotal experience. For the sake of my kids a house price crash of 50%+ can't come soon enough.

ThomasNashe

AndyJS said:

madasafish said:

If Leadsom wins, mountain to climb in 2020.

If Labour find someone electable.

It really is getting to the stage of 'could the last one out switch off the lights'.

Paul_Bedfordshire

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

Not good. Really not good

https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568

If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?

Could just be jitters.

*buys tinned food*

Who needs money or food when you've taken back control.

Feel the sovereignty.

There is no way to square this circle. People really really don't want uncontrolled immigration. They really DO want to take back control of the borders. How do you do that without crashing the economy?

Answers on an e-postcard to Number 10

Controlled dosent necessarily mean a big cut in immigration, just that we set the rules so that, say the whole population of Greece can't turn up overnight, or if Germany gave all the Syrian refugees there German passports, half the population of Syria can't turn up here overnight.

Hotels thrive on people staying for short and long terms, however they wouldn't last long if they were not allowed to limit the number of guests to the number of beds available and had to accomodate anyone who turned up.....

chrisoxon

I messaged ConHome to ask them to run an AV style poll to look at how support for each of the figures might swing following each round of elimination.

Sadly we didn't get that, however I'd say this looks VERY promising for Leadsom. She should be able to count on all of Fox's support which takes her up to 43%, meaning she'd only need 60% of the Gove backers to fall in behind her.

She also has the advantage of being a relatively unknown quantity, who has the potential to win over more people as they get to see more of her. Of course, it could also go the other way if she underperforms!

RobD

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

Would the exit proceedings begin as soon as the EU receives the PM's notification, or would they wait to hear an outcome of such a trial?

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Miss JGP, it's the name of a first book in the A Song of Ice and Fire fantasy series, and the name of the TV show based on the series.

It's a very grimdark (lots of sex and explicit violence), low-magic, high budget, really rather good series.

Scrapheap_as_was

A thread on this bollocks poll? People betting on Leadsom wanting to trade out will be delighted.

Paul_Bedfordshire

RobD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

Would the exit proceedings begin as soon as the EU receives the PM's notification, or would they wait to hear an outcome of such a trial?

For the sake of the Queens Peace, I dearly hope the former.

Jonathan

Whatever infected the Labour Party is rubbing off on the Tories.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Scrapheap_as_was said:

A thread on this bollocks poll? People betting on Leadsom wanting to trade out will be delighted.

If you had to think up seven threads a day (with little sermons) for years on end you would do the same with relish.

AlastairMeeks

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

Let's kill all the lawyers.

They're a form of expert, after all.

CarlottaVance

Leadsom is the UKIP candidate and Leadsomites kippers-manque......

Paul_Bedfordshire

AlastairMeeks said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

Let's kill all the lawyers.

They're a form of expert, after all.

Don't jest about such things. I have no desire to experience a rerun of 1642-1651 (or 1916-1923 in Ireland) or anything anywhere near that path.

nunu

I would like to see how those who won it for Leave voted in the 1980's then stopped. Willing to wager they voted for Thatcher rather more than Tue Labour opposite, even though these are working class people in Labour heartlands. 1983 Falklands war victory could be a good reason to vote Tory as they are very patriotic.

JohnO

I do think ConHome needs to absolutely clear that this survey's results are based on actual party members. As Max noted on the previous thread anyone can respond to their surveys: membership is not a requirement. However, if they only count those who tick the box as belonging to the party, then the findings have a (marginally) enhanced credibility bearing in mind those who frequent the site.

MaxPB

Meh UKIPhome.

It's probably a good result for May considering the audience.

Scrapheap_as_was

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

A thread on this bollocks poll? People betting on Leadsom wanting to trade out will be delighted.

If you had to think up seven threads a day (with little sermons) for years on end you would do the same with relish.

You are quite right... but I thought it was a punishment to be sent to UKIPhome on here?

kle4

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. /

There is no danger of that. The Commons doesn't have the support necessary to work up the guts to ask for a second referendum to at least try to get democratic backing for reversing the first democratic mandate, let alone to ignore the vote completely.

SimonStClare

Will we get the same picture from YouGov? - I very much doubt it.

Am I right in thinking the last YouGov Con leadership poll included Boris?

Paul_Bedfordshire

JohnO said:

I do think ConHome needs to absolutely clear that this survey's results are based on actual party members. As Max noted on the previous thread anyone can respond to their surveys: membership is not a requirement. However, if they only count those who tick the box as belonging to the party, then the findings have a (marginally) enhanced credibility bearing in mind those who frequent the site.

How do they verify that they actually are members?

CarlottaVance

Scrapheap_as_was said:

A thread on this bollocks poll? People betting on Leadsom wanting to trade out will be delighted.

Any party stupid enough to elect IDS is stupid enough to elect Leadsom.

Who is IDS supporting?

Thrak

As the unelectable left blunder on, the unelectable right decide they want to have some of the of the same impotent fun as well.

The country is crying out for a centrist, steadying force. If these two parties don't give us one then the vacuum will be soon filled by a new party.

MaxPB

SimonStClare said:

Will we get the same picture from YouGov? - I very much doubt it.

Am I right in thinking the last YouGov Con leadership poll included Boris?

Yes it's the one that made the leave backers panic because May was well ahead of Boris.

JohnO

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

JohnO said:

I do think ConHome needs to absolutely clear that this survey's results are based on actual party members. As Max noted on the previous thread anyone can respond to their surveys: membership is not a requirement. However, if they only count those who tick the box as belonging to the party, then the findings have a (marginally) enhanced credibility bearing in mind those who frequent the site.

How do they verify that they actually are members?

They can't of course, but then neither can any other pollster.

AlastairMeeks

Part of me actively wants Andrea Leadsom to win, if only to see the reactions of all those worldly-wise EEA Leavers to such a result.

Paul_Bedfordshire

CarlottaVance said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

A thread on this bollocks poll? People betting on Leadsom wanting to trade out will be delighted.

Any party stupid enough to elect IDS is stupid enough to elect Leadsom.

Who is IDS supporting?

Theresa May is not Ken Clarke. If it was Leadsome v Clarke, I would join and vote for Leadsome.

(in answer to your question I believe IDS is supporting Andrea)

chestnut

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

chestnut said:

SeanT said:

There's no denying these are ominous signs. Property underpins the UK economy.

Brrr.

We may yet see a reversal of the vote. Or May (if she wins) has to come out and say it's EEA at the minimum, with the Single Market, so very little will change economically - to calm things.

Watch London where nearly 40% of residents are born abroad.

Many BTL landlords are dependent on a never ending flow of migrant workers to give them their yield.

A combination of the Benefits Cap, the BTL tax regime and now this are squeezing them.

The average home in London is now trading at nearly £500k -four times the level of most of the country.

The rest of the country won't feel this anywhere near as much, but London...

Being a BTL landlord and a fanatical remainer seem to go together in my anecdotal experience. For the sake of my kids a house price crash of 50%+ can't come soon enough.

Back in 2010, a lot of BTL landlords were making a killing out of the welfare system in London due to unlimited housing benefit.

The introduction of welfare caps meant they had to find a different client base and they went for the migrant load, opting to convert houses into multiple bedsits.

Now that stream might be cut off how are they going to get away with asking £1500 a month to live in a dump like Tottenham, Edmonton or Manor Park?

They will panic.

Paul_Bedfordshire

chestnut said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

chestnut said:

SeanT said:

There's no denying these are ominous signs. Property underpins the UK economy.

Brrr.

We may yet see a reversal of the vote. Or May (if she wins) has to come out and say it's EEA at the minimum, with the Single Market, so very little will change economically - to calm things.

Watch London where nearly 40% of residents are born abroad.

Many BTL landlords are dependent on a never ending flow of migrant workers to give them their yield.

A combination of the Benefits Cap, the BTL tax regime and now this are squeezing them.

The average home in London is now trading at nearly £500k -four times the level of most of the country.

The rest of the country won't feel this anywhere near as much, but London...

Being a BTL landlord and a fanatical remainer seem to go together in my anecdotal experience. For the sake of my kids a house price crash of 50%+ can't come soon enough.

Back in 2010, a lot of BTL landlords were making a killing out of the welfare system in London due to unlimited housing benefit.

The introduction of welfare caps meant they had to find a different client base and they went for the migrant load, opting to convert houses into multiple bedsits.

Now that stream might be cut off how are they going to get away with asking £1500 a month to live in a dump like Tottenham, Edmonton or Manor Park?

They will panic.

Good

HYUFD

JohnO said:

I do think ConHome needs to absolutely clear that this survey's results are based on actual party members. As Max noted on the previous thread anyone can respond to their surveys: membership is not a requirement. However, if they only count those who tick the box as belonging to the party, then the findings have a (marginally) enhanced credibility bearing in mind those who frequent the site.

Yes the previous conhone survey had May ahead, this may be Kipper infiltrators ramping Leadsom we shall see

fitalass

"ConHome has published the results of a new survey of CON members. This is NOT a proper poll but CONHome can point to how close their member survey was in 2005 getting Cameron’s victory margin almost dead on."

I used to regularly take part in those early Conhom polls as well as posting on the site in the run up to the last Conservative leadership contest. But I haven't posted or taken part in one of their surveys in years now, I suspect that their regular readership has changed quite a lot and will include a lot of wishful Ukippers which is bound to skew this poll.

MP_SE

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

ThomasNashe

And the good news just keeps on coming ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36701273

IanB2

The site isn't known as UKIPhome without reason.

kle4

John_N4 said:

AnneJGP said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cheers for the answers.

Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.

Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez?

What is Game of Thrones? I mean, is it a series with an overall theme, or a game show type thing, or what?

It's a TV fiction series from the US, largely filmed in Britain, based on books by G R R Martin which have a reading age about six years lower than the works of J R R Tolkien but are compared to them by the kind of commentators I have no hesitation in calling mental retards. The TV series is structured around the depiction of instances of extreme violence, humiliation, incest, etc., desensitising its audience to acts such as mutilation, decapitation, cutting off a man's penis, murdering a pregnant woman by repeatedly stabbing her in the belly, etc., all shown in prime time and directed at a teenage and pre-teen audience; and most of the leading actresses in it made their careers in pornography. If ever there was a case not for censorship but for an outright government ban...

Matters of taste and quality will of course differ, but much of this is absolute bollocks, particularly the bit about the actresses.

The truth is it is a very well produced TV show based on the works of G R R Martin, which are fantasy novels with dark and brutal elements (which lesser copiers mistake as the whole point), and which has a very large cast and intricate plots and has received praise for its depth, acting and unpredictability, but has also faced criticism for over the top or gratuitous violence and sex (though I must say the past season had far less of the 'sexposition' - a term for where exposition of information was done with someone naked in the scene, presumably to make it more interesting - than the early seasons). And of course many people do not like fantasy stories or medieval setting stories, of which it is both.

There have been far darker and more twisted shows.

JohnO

IanB2 said:

The site isn't known as UKIPhome without reason.

And this site isn't far behind these days

Fenster

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

Sean_F

I don't know how good the poll is, but the result doesn't seem implausible.

I don't know why Leadsom attracts such ire. She's plainly a mainstream Conservative.

nunu

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

Why do Tories dislike Mak so much?

John_N4

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

The rabid and superficial style of Tom Harris's piece matches its mistaken content. He doesn't understand the argument he's opposing. The will of parliament is expressed in the European Communities Act 1972. Invoking Article 50 would negate that Act. Barrack-room lawyers can argue the toss about the difference between repealing a statute and making it into a dead letter, but they can't seriously deny that Article 50 negates the effect of the Act that took Britain into the EU. The point is that the royal prerogative cannot undo the will of parliament. Mishcon de Reya are wholly right, and the courts will agree.

paulyork64

Andy clinically good

kle4

nunu said:

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

Why do Tories dislike Mak so much?

I believe he is supposed to have said he was a die hard eurosceptic to get elected, then voted Remain, it is presumed as a career move.

ThomasNashe

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

As far as I understand it, apart from being thick, indecisive and inexperienced there isn't that much against her.

RobD

nunu said:

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

Why do Tories dislike Mak so much?

I think because he changed his position on Europe.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. N4, I didn't buy the fifth series right away because I felt the fourth was too close to making the violence a fetish. I don't mind grim stuff, but that doesn't mean it can't be taken to excess.

Of course, those who prefer a more tasteful fantasy (whilst still with a dash of grimness) should buy Bane of Souls and Journey to Altmortis, by me:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/

Ishmael_X

ThomasNashe said:

And the good news just keeps on coming ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36701273

Post Brexit non est propter Brexit, and anyway these data are almost entirely (80%) pre-Brexit. i'm sure there is plenty of lovely bad news in the pipeline, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Sean_F

kle4 said:

John_N4 said:

AnneJGP said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cheers for the answers.

Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.

Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez?

What is Game of Thrones? I mean, is it a series with an overall theme, or a game show type thing, or what?

It's a TV fiction series from the US, largely filmed in Britain, based on books by G R R Martin which have a reading age about six years lower than the works of J R R Tolkien but are compared to them by the kind of commentators I have no hesitation in calling mental retards. The TV series is structured around the depiction of instances of extreme violence, humiliation, incest, etc., desensitising its audience to acts such as mutilation, decapitation, cutting off a man's penis, murdering a pregnant woman by repeatedly stabbing her in the belly, etc., all shown in prime time and directed at a teenage and pre-teen audience; and most of the leading actresses in it made their careers in pornography. If ever there was a case not for censorship but for an outright government ban...

Matters of taste and quality will of course differ, but much of this is absolute bollocks, particularly the bit about the actresses.

The truth is it is a very well produced TV show based on the works of G R R Martin, which are fantasy novels with dark and brutal elements (which lesser copiers mistake as the whole point), and which has a very large cast and intricate plots and has received praise for its depth, acting and unpredictability, but has also faced criticism for over the top or gratuitous violence and sex (though I must say the past season had far less of the 'sexposition' - a term for where exposition of information was done with someone naked in the scene, presumably to make it more interesting - than the early seasons). And of course many people do not like fantasy stories or medieval setting stories, of which it is both.

There have been far darker and more twisted shows.

I like the Show, but it is brutal. Every bit of humanity is stripped from most characters (that humanity does exist in the books), leaving a conflict between mostly evil people, which is gripping, well-produced, and well-acted, but it is a show that really does glorify cruelty by now.

Moses_

Someone from ITV news reads PB. I said about Peston the other day

"get a tie and a shave you scruffy little git you are on national telly"

Lo and behold he's reporting on the 6.30 news tonight with a tie on and a clean shave. Wonder how long it will last?

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. N4, I didn't buy the fifth series right away because I felt the fourth was too close to making the violence a fetish. I don't mind grim stuff, but that doesn't mean it can't be taken to excess.

It was an issue with the fourth and fifth books as well, but I think that's because it feels like the darkest point in the series - the latest series was far less fetishy about it, with a couple of bits standing out in my mind which were more effective as a result.

TCPoliticalBetting

JohnO said:

IanB2 said:

The site isn't known as UKIPhome without reason.

And this site isn't far behind these days

JohnO perhaps the site should get friendlier?
http://www.besnuggled.co.uk/BeSnuggled-Terms-and-FAQ

John_N4

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

If she wins, which is unlikely, and then invokes Article 50, she will have her decision struck down by the courts.

RobD

John_N4 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

The rabid and superficial style of Tom Harris's piece matches its mistaken content. He doesn't understand the argument he's opposing. The will of parliament is expressed in the European Communities Act 1972. Invoking Article 50 would negate that Act. Barrack-room lawyers can argue the toss about the difference between repealing a statute and making it into a dead letter, but they can't seriously deny that Article 50 negates the effect of the Act that took Britain into the EU. The point is that the royal prerogative cannot undo the will of parliament. Mishcon de Reya are wholly right, and the courts will agree.

Part 1 Section 2 (2) suggests that HM can by Order in Council exercise any right enjoyed by the UK in the treaties:

"(2) Subject to Schedule 2 to this Act, at any time after its passing Her Majesty may by Order in Council, and any designated Minister or department may by regulations, make provision-
(a) for the purpose of implementing any Community obligation of the United Kingdom, or enabling any such obligation to be implemented, or of enabling any rights enjoyed or to be enjoyed by the United Kingdom under or by virtue of the Treaties to be exercised ; "

Does that mean Article 50 can be 'authorised' by Order in Council?

Fenster

John_N4 said:

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

If she wins, which is unlikely, and then invokes Article 50, she will have her decision struck down by the courts.

I've just been reading her Wiki page. Sounds like a typical Tory MP to me.

OGH gets a mention. A proper bit of celebrity name-dropping on the author's part ☺

ydoethur

Kyrgios looking slightly less like tennis' answer to Michael Gove that game. Needs about 18 more like it though.

John_M

kle4 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. N4, I didn't buy the fifth series right away because I felt the fourth was too close to making the violence a fetish. I don't mind grim stuff, but that doesn't mean it can't be taken to excess.

It was an issue with the fourth and fifth books as well, but I think that's because it feels like the darkest point in the series - the latest series was far less fetishy about it, with a couple of bits standing out in my mind which were more effective as a result.

The final two episodes of series six were outstanding television. The opening sequence to the finale was haunting.

As for Martin's work being sub-Tolkien, can't agree. The first three books knock the socks off LoTR for depth and realism. Sadly, the quality has declined thereafter. The TV series has now outpaced the books, generally to its detriment. Still worthwhile though.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, thanks for that spoiler-free but nevertheless very useful comment. I think I'll hang fire, then perhaps get a full box set. If I have any money.

Mr. F, I do bang on about it, but Sean McGlynn's By Sword and Fire (which examines morality in the Middle Ages (mostly warfare)) is really very good, and proved incredibly useful for my trilogy when deciding how harsh, wise, merciful and brutal to be.

One of my beta readers (who tends to be immensely critical) actually singled out a short section on morality in the first book as being particularly good.

CarlottaVance

ThomasNashe said:

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

As far as I understand it, apart from being thick, indecisive and inexperienced there isn't that much against her.

And a banker with an off-shore trust and a BTL landlord.....

Joking apart, Leadsom may yet prove an effective minister, and possibly one day Prime Minister - but not, remotely, yet.

tlg86

I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

Pulpstar

Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

Or did I mishear the news today ?

kle4

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

John_N4 said:

AnneJGP said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cheers for the answers.

Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.

Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez?

What is Game of Thrones? I mean, is it a series with an overall theme, or a game show type thing, or what?

It's a TV fiction series from the US, largely filmed in Britain, based on books by G R R Martin which have a reading age about six years lower than the works of J R R Tolkien but are compared to them by the kind of commentators I have no hesitation in calling mental retards. The TV series is structured around the depiction of instances of extreme violence, humiliation, incest, etc., desensitising its audience to acts such as mutilation, decapitation, cutting off a man's penis, murdering a pregnant woman by repeatedly stabbing her in the belly, etc., all shown in prime time and directed at a teenage and pre-teen audience; and most of the leading actresses in it made their careers in pornography. If ever there was a case not for censorship but for an outright government ban...

Matters of tastted shows.

I like the Show, but it is brutal. Every bit of humanity is stripped from most characters (that humanity does exist in the books), leaving a conflict between mostly evil people, which is gripping, well-produced, and well-acted, but it is a show that really does glorify cruelty by now.

I felt similarly, particularly with the latest books and the last series of the show, but I don't anymore - I think the first shoots of light, of healing, were being introduced, and while some are still so broken by the experience they cannot truly be whole again, that some are making it through still mostly decent is I think encouraging.

I've often said I dislike a lot of modern fantasy as it's too bloody grim and depressing for its own good, with characters too dark, reprehensible and hopeless to be interesting to follow, but GoT, while skirting that line at times and those following in its wake being partly responsible, I feel is well written enough to avoid it. There's just enough levity, humanity and, now, even hope. And I'm pleased to see a bit of a resurgence of more optimistic, fun fantasy in recent years.

But that's enough GoT - fact is, it is very well produced (even if people think it well produced garbage) and even if one hates it, it's not some socially destroying evil. It'd just be a poor show.

chrisoxon

RobD said:

nunu said:

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

Why do Tories dislike Mak so much?

I think because he changed his position on Europe.

Mak has always been an acquired taste. Those who bizarrely acquired the taste are the only ones disappointed in his stance on the EU, many thought he was an arse from the outset.

Lord knows how he got selected for Havant!

Paul_Bedfordshire

John_N4 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

The rabid and superficial style of Tom Harris's piece matches its mistaken content. He doesn't understand the argument he's opposing. The will of parliament is expressed in the European Communities Act 1972. Invoking Article 50 would negate that Act. Barrack-room lawyers can argue the toss about the difference between repealing a statute and making it into a dead letter, but they can't seriously deny that Article 50 negates the effect of the Act that took Britain into the EU. The point is that the royal prerogative cannot undo the will of parliament. Mishcon de Reya are wholly right, and the courts will agree.

I am going to take the view Do Not Feed for the sake of my blood pressure.

nunu

kle4 said:

nunu said:

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

Why do Tories dislike Mak so much?

I believe he is supposed to have said he was a die hard eurosceptic to get elected, then voted Remain, it is presumed as a career move.

Should be deselected then.

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

The site isn't known as UKIPhome without reason.

May led in the last conhome poll, this may be Kippers influencing the result

Paul_Bedfordshire

Pulpstar said:

Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

Or did I mishear the news today ?

Shows she has her head screwed on when it comes to Negotiations

AnneJGP

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Miss JGP, it's the name of a first book in the A Song of Ice and Fire fantasy series, and the name of the TV show based on the series.

It's a very grimdark (lots of sex and explicit violence), low-magic, high budget, really rather good series.

@Morris_Dancer , @John_N4 , @kle4

Many thanks for your various points of view.

If I had a TV, safe to say it's something I wouldn't wish to watch.

Bob__Sykes

Really don't have a problem, substantively, with the legal challenge being brought by Mischons for their clients. It's not a "challenge to Brexit" or attempt to overturn the referendum, it raises a very interesting point of law that is foxing some leading legal lights. Even I don't know the right answer. :-)

It will go up to the Supreme Court, and pretty quickly, and I shouldn't be surprised if they rule that the PM has the absolute executive right to trigger Art 50 and it doesn't need an Act of Parliament.

My concern is that if this is dealt with too quickly, it might scupper one of our reasons for procrastination we could deploy in Brussels if the PM tries to argue that constitutionally it is not the PM's executive right and it will need proper consideration by parliament and will only pass if "there is a plan" and a vision of what we're negotiating for - if the Supreme Court answers it as a I expect, then that particular fox would be shot. And we might need to crack on with Brexit. Which may not be what Mischons' clients actually want...

David_Evershed

RobD said:

John_N4 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

This legal challenge to the Royal Prerogative bvy hundreds of apparently secretive people is rather worrying (or at least it will be if they win and the commons defies the will of the people. Full blown revolutions have been caused by less:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/id-rather-fight-ten-more-eu-referendums-than-let-a-bunch-of-lawy/

The rabid and superficial style of Tom Harris's piece matches its mistaken content. He doesn't understand the argument he's opposing. The will of parliament is expressed in the European Communities Act 1972. Invoking Article 50 would negate that Act. Barrack-room lawyers can argue the toss about the difference between repealing a statute and making it into a dead letter, but they can't seriously deny that Article 50 negates the effect of the Act that took Britain into the EU. The point is that the royal prerogative cannot undo the will of parliament. Mishcon de Reya are wholly right, and the courts will agree.

Part 1 Section 2 (2) suggests that HM can by Order in Council exercise any right enjoyed by the UK in the treaties:

"(2) Subject to Schedule 2 to this Act, at any time after its passing Her Majesty may by Order in Council, and any designated Minister or department may by regulations, make provision-
(a) for the purpose of implementing any Community obligation of the United Kingdom, or enabling any such obligation to be implemented, or of enabling any rights enjoyed or to be enjoyed by the United Kingdom under or by virtue of the Treaties to be exercised ; "

Does that mean Article 50 can be 'authorised' by Order in Council?

The EU Commission will accept any letter from the new PM saying they are invoking Article 50. It is the EU's Article 50 not the UK's Article 50.

If the EU agrees we are leaving, the UK can not make a unilateral decision that the EU is wrong.

A case where EU law trumps UK law.

RobD

John_N4 said:

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

If she wins, which is unlikely, and then invokes Article 50, she will have her decision struck down by the courts.

By the time that happens the EU will have already accepted our letter and negotiations would be well underway.

HYUFD

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

David Davis endorsed May today having previously backed Boris

Pulpstar

Re GoT

Season 6 Episodes 9 and 10 may well be two of the greatest pieces of cinematography in any TV series, anywhere, ever.

They are STUNNING.

AndyJS

Murray completely outclassing Kyrgios.

John_M

Pulpstar said:

Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

Or did I mishear the news today ?

I had a rant about it on the previous thread. I think the consensus was that I was being naive. I stand by my position, but then I'm an English chauvinist . No more ranting though.

MP_SE

chrisoxon said:

RobD said:

nunu said:

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Text from Tory MP in 1922:
"Lots of arse lickers, toadies and sycophants who all think they'll be Under Secretary for Widgets

Major league toadie Alan Mak is backing May. I imagine she is the toadies candidate of choice.

Why do Tories dislike Mak so much?

I think because he changed his position on Europe.

Mak has always been an acquired taste. Those who bizarrely acquired the taste are the only ones disappointed in his stance on the EU, many thought he was an arse from the outset.

Lord knows how he got selected for Havant!

Google Alan Mak CV. Makes for entertaining reading.

Not content with annoying his constituency association, he has also managed to annoy fellow MPs:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/backbench-plot-deprives-alan-mak-of-his-favourite-spot-at-pmqs/

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

Or did I mishear the news today ?

Now, now. No winding up the Remainers.

HYUFD

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

She is backed by Bill Cash, IDS and Norman Tebbit and UKIP. If she won the Kippers would infiltrate the Tories as much as Momentum have infiltrated Labour under Corbyn. Farage could be found a safe seat and a Cabinet post. The LDs meanwhile could see the swiftest recovery since Lazarus!

David_Evershed

Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

CarlottaVance

tlg86 said:

I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?

Morris_Dancer

Miss JGP, fair enough

Although not my cup of tea, there are sites and Twitter accounts dedicated to slightly gentler fiction (I think they're called clean reads) for those not enamoured with the current trend for grimdark fantasy.

Unsure of their view on teenage girls destroying seemingly omnipotent dystopian regimes, though...

RobD

Pulpstar said:

Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

Or did I mishear the news today ?

Yeah, I think it is wrong of them not to say something along the lines of "we will negotiate for the continued rights of both UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK". It's unthinkable that we'd actually be deporting people at the end of all this...

Pulpstar

Game of Thrones is the only TV series I've bothered to watch in the last 7 years...

Paul_Bedfordshire

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

Or did I mishear the news today ?

Yeah, I think it is wrong of them not to say something along the lines of "we will negotiate for the continued rights of both UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK". It's unthinkable that we'd actually be deporting people at the end of all this...

Not if the EU states dont give guarantees that UK citizens in their countries wont be deported or discriminated against.

Sean_F

John_M said:

kle4 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. N4, I didn't buy the fifth series right away because I felt the fourth was too close to making the violence a fetish. I don't mind grim stuff, but that doesn't mean it can't be taken to excess.

It was an issue with the fourth and fifth books as well, but I think that's because it feels like the darkest point in the series - the latest series was far less fetishy about it, with a couple of bits standing out in my mind which were more effective as a result.

The final two episodes of series six were outstanding television. The opening sequence to the finale was haunting.

As for Martin's work being sub-Tolkien, can't agree. The first three books knock the socks off LoTR for depth and realism. Sadly, the quality has declined thereafter. The TV series has now outpaced the books, generally to its detriment. Still worthwhile though.

Martin has always said Tolkien is the better writer, but they wrote very different things. LOTR and Silmarillion are epics, while ASOIAF is driven by its characters.

Fenster

ThomasNashe said:

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

As far as I understand it, apart from being thick, indecisive and inexperienced there isn't that much against her.

Yeah - she does seem thick. Managing Director of a major financial operation in her mid thirties.

Stupid fucking comment.

RobD

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

Open question to the floor/particularly Theresa May supporters.

What do you make of her implied threat to use EU citizens already working here as pawns in her negotiations ?

If this had come from Andrea Leadsome today would you be taking the same view ?

Or did I mishear the news today ?

Yeah, I think it is wrong of them not to say something along the lines of "we will negotiate for the continued rights of both UK citizens in Europe and EU citizens in the UK". It's unthinkable that we'd actually be deporting people at the end of all this...

Not if the EU states dont give guarantees that UK citizens in their countries wont be deported or discriminated against.

I just can't see it happening...

AndyJS

Fenster said:

Is Leadsom that toxic that posters here are put off by the prospect of her leadership?

I confess to not knowing much about her but she doesn't appear to be a raving mad right-winger?

She's "toxic" because she cooks a Sunday roast, goes to church, and represents a seat in boring Northamptonshire.

CarlottaVance

David_Evershed said:

Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

Tell that to UK citizens living in the EU. Never mind the negotiations look at my virtue signalling.....

tlg86

CarlottaVance said:

tlg86 said:

I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?

Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.

Paul_Bedfordshire

David_Evershed said:

Smart tactical move by Leadsom to say current EU citizens can stay in UK. Shows a human side and good judgement.

May lacks a human side as demonstatred by saying she would use existing EU citzens in UK as a bargaining chip. Lots of established Conservative members will not welcome this threat by May in my view

Rubbish. Shows inexperience in these sorts of negotiations to me.

I want someone prepared to be utterly ruthless in defending Britains interests in the UK and this suggests that May 'gets it'

TCPoliticalBetting

tlg86 said:

I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

It looks as if REMAIN has civil servants and/or SPADs communicating policy lines. The fact that May said "no emergency budget" and Osborne then confirmed the u turn is another example.

Paul_Bedfordshire

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tlg86 said:

I really think May and Hammond have made a mistake with the right to remain issue. It's as though they and other Remainers are still fighting the war and are putting words into the mouths of their opponents. The reality is that their opponent has said categorically that everyone can stay. Perhaps May thinks that the Tory members like the idea of chucking people out of the country and being non committal will work to her advantage. But I really doubt that somehow.

So you'd grant something to EU citizens in the UK that we have no way of knowing will be granted to UK citizens in the EU?

Absolutely. If the EU wants to start cleansing itself of Brits we should not retaliate. I appreciate that many on here will then be in the position to point and laugh at those of us who have questioned the levels of immigration over the last decade. But I'd rather live with those consequences than start deporting people.

Oh yes we should retaliate. This is realpolitik, not a time for fluffy emotionalism.

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, thanks for that spoiler-free but nevertheless very useful comment. I think I'll hang fire, then perhaps get a full box set. If I have any money.

Mr. F, I do bang on about it, but Sean McGlynn's By Sword and Fire (which examines morality in the Middle Ages (mostly warfare)) is really very good, and proved incredibly useful for my trilogy when deciding how harsh, wise, merciful and brutal to be.

One of my beta readers (who tends to be immensely critical) actually singled out a short section on morality in the first book as being particularly good.

The problem with the Show (for me at any rate) is that all that matters is being a badass. Most medieval societies had morals and standards, even if very different from our own. The World depicted in the Show has none; it's an utterly dark and depraved society.