Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
There are 5 members of the same Parliamentary intake as Leadsom who sit round the Cabinet table. One has to ask why she is languishing as a junior minister. She clearly isn't that stellar a politician so one is forced to wonder what on earth she thinks she's playing at and more especially what those who are plumping for her think they are.
George Osborne didn't get on with her. She used to be on the Treasury Select Committee and pissed him off a few times.
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Sky News doco on A Nation Divided is pretty good. Amazing how many people (particular on the Leave side) think it was a mistake holding the referendum
The polls don't reflect that though. It's almost as if they went out looking for people of that opinion...
There was a poll in the Evening Standard a few days back that said Remain would win "comfortably" if re-run.
But anyway, polls...
A re-run in Battersea ?
No it had it 45% to 40% Remain with 15% 'undecided' ie most of them voted Leave
The commentary from the pollster was that Remain would leave comfortably. You are making whopping assumptions. Anyway, it's a poll. We all know how useful they are...
It was the pollster who was making assumptions, especially given some final polls showed more than 5% leads for Remain when Leave eventually won by 2%
It's inconceivable that we could be a member of the EEA against the wishes of the EU. In any case our treaties with the EU lapse under Article 50. This presumably includes the EEA Treaty, although the article is vaguely worded, in general.
No. We are independent signatories to the EEA agreement. A number of countries have started as EFTA members and moved to being EU members without any change to their status in the EEA Agreement and no amendments.
If you look at the text of, for example, the Association Agreements signed with other countries outside the EEA they state that they are specifically between the EU and those countries. That does not apply in the case of the EEA agreement because it was a treaty between individual states. This allowed for states to move from EFTA to the EU without having to change the treaty. It applies equally in the other direction.
I don't think there have been any countries that were in the EEA as part of EFTA that have moved to the EU, so that wouldn't apply, surely?
Sweden, Finland and Austria. The EEA Agreement came into force in 1994 whilst they all joined the EU from EFTA in 1995 having already joined the EEA as part of EFTA.
If you look at the agreement the EU signs separately from the individual member states as a contracting party in its own right. Each individual state also signs in its own right. EFTA does not.
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
Many Tory constituencies voted Remain too, especially in London and the Home Counties. Overall more Tories voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
Many Tory constituencies voted Remain too, especially in London and the Home Counties. Overall more Tories voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave
Tunbridge Wells was the only council in Kent to vote Remain.
There are 5 members of the same Parliamentary intake as Leadsom who sit round the Cabinet table. One has to ask why she is languishing as a junior minister. She clearly isn't that stellar a politician so one is forced to wonder what on earth she thinks she's playing at and more especially what those who are plumping for her think they are.
George Osborne didn't get on with her. She used to be on the Treasury Select Committee and pissed him off a few times.
Listen...believe me, you cannot put Leadsom as my PM, just because you somehow trust her over Brexit more than May.
There is a strong chance that Brexit will not happen. There are too many hurdles on the horizon....an acceptable agreement to be made (with 27 of our very grumpy neighbours), a HoC vote where both houses are majority led by remainers, a possible GE, a possible second referendum, a business and establishment elite that is horrified at the result and is probably using it's energies at this very minute to work out how it can turn around things, the prospect of splitting the Union....and dealing with a full blown recession when it still feels like we haven't got through the last one.
To get that Article 50 invoked it would take some kind of herculean effort against all the odds.
I don't rate your chances to be honest. But then what do I know? I've got a low IQ.
Senior Tory source just told me ballot papers may not go out til "mid August", much later than 1922 Cttee wanted. But good news for Leadsom
Why is that good news for Leadsom?
More time to built momentum? I guess May would have preferred an earlier contest.
Judging by her performance at the 1922 committee tonight and the many questions over her closeness to leave.eu, her tax affairs, and her inexperience the more exposure she has to the media the more likely Theresa May will be seen as the safe pair of hands
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
Why? I was up in Leave land this weekend. People don't see it as a party political issue (with good reason - families are split, parties are split)
There are 5 members of the same Parliamentary intake as Leadsom who sit round the Cabinet table. One has to ask why she is languishing as a junior minister. She clearly isn't that stellar a politician so one is forced to wonder what on earth she thinks she's playing at and more especially what those who are plumping for her think they are.
Not all have the same ambition though, so not a 100% fair comparison.
This is true, the point is if she's so talented she ought to be PM with almost zero serious political experience why have others not obviously amazingly talented such as Nicky Morgan got in the Cabinet before her.
Not besties with George and Dave
If her talent was sufficient it wouldn't have retarded her career as much.
What else can she say? "We can't possibly let you in now the UK is leaving"
It was more an observation rather than "teh EU is der evulz'. We need them to go about their business and take the emotion out of Brexit. I think we're getting there. Just need to work on our own countrymen now .
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
Many Tory constituencies voted Remain too, especially in London and the Home Counties. Overall more Tories voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave
Yup. One major reason why I now support a realignment
There are 5 members of the same Parliamentary intake as Leadsom who sit round the Cabinet table. One has to ask why she is languishing as a junior minister. She clearly isn't that stellar a politician so one is forced to wonder what on earth she thinks she's playing at and more especially what those who are plumping for her think they are.
George Osborne didn't get on with her. She used to be on the Treasury Select Committee and pissed him off a few times.
Listen...believe me, you cannot put Leadsom as my PM, just because you somehow trust her over Brexit more than May.
There is a strong chance that Brexit will not happen. There are too many hurdles on the horizon....an acceptable agreement to be made (with 27 of our very grumpy neighbours), a HoC vote where both houses are majority led by remainers, a possible GE, a possible second referendum, a business and establishment elite that is horrified at the result and is probably using it's energies at this very minute to work out how it can turn around things, the prospect of splitting the Union....and dealing with a full blown recession when it still feels like we haven't got through the last one.
To get that Article 50 invoked it would take some kind of herculean effort against all the odds.
I don't rate your chances to be honest. But then what do I know? I've got a low IQ.
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
Many Tory constituencies voted Remain too, especially in London and the Home Counties. Overall more Tories voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave
Tunbridge Wells was the only council in Kent to vote Remain.
In Surrey though Epsom, Mole Valley, Guildford etc voted Remain
There are 5 members of the same Parliamentary intake as Leadsom who sit round the Cabinet table. One has to ask why she is languishing as a junior minister. She clearly isn't that stellar a politician so one is forced to wonder what on earth she thinks she's playing at and more especially what those who are plumping for her think they are.
George Osborne didn't get on with her. She used to be on the Treasury Select Committee and pissed him off a few times.
Listen...believe me, you cannot put Leadsom as my PM, just because you somehow trust her over Brexit more than May.
There is a strong chance that Brexit will not happen. There are too many hurdles on the horizon....an acceptable agreement to be made (with 27 of our very grumpy neighbours), a HoC vote where both houses are majority led by remainers, a possible GE, a possible second referendum, a business and establishment elite that is horrified at the result and is probably using it's energies at this very minute to work out how it can turn around things, the prospect of splitting the Union....and dealing with a full blown recession when it still feels like we haven't got through the last one.
To get that Article 50 invoked it would take some kind of herculean effort against all the odds.
I don't rate your chances to be honest. But then what do I know? I've got a low IQ.
- I'm not backing Leadsom. I'm backing May. - I do, however, think the smearing of Leadsom is a bit unnecessary. She's no right wing fruitcake. - I think May will win the race at a canter. - I am 100% certain Brexit will happen and the UK will leave - I am even more certain that you are more educated abd brighter than I am. I left school at 17.
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
That is remarkable.
And mirrors exactly what I've heard from small businessmen oop-North. Labour is set to lose it's heartlands in Wales and the North, as well as what Remains in the Midlands because it is a pro-European party. And the party wants to ditch the leader because he wasn't sufficiently Pro-EU?
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
Many Tory constituencies voted Remain too, especially in London and the Home Counties. Overall more Tories voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave
I thought Tories were split 57-43% Leave according to yougov.
Except, it is entirely possible that by time of next GE in 2020, the debate will be all about the Tories Brexit Recession, which will have them left struggling with a balance of payments crisis and a massive deficit hole and ten points behind Labour.
It'll all be the Tories fault for screwing up the post-Brexit outcome rather than those who actually voted Leave despite the warnings (many of whom will have conveniently forgotten that fact).
Critical for anyone languishing in the hopes of a second referendum
a) The turnout in Eng and Wales could still rise, so new turnout might be more leavers not just remainers. b) Nationalists in both NI and Scotland seeing their chance to make this an opportunity to split from the UK, will be even less inclined to turnout for Remain.
Though if Scotland and NI both voted Leave that would kill the independence argument,
They were quite significantly for Remain - they'd only have to not turnout a little more to counteract any remain surge elsewhere, if it even existed, without falling to Leave themselves.
But as you say, at present only a LD majority would get us back in, and even that wouldn't be certain.
NI in particular could vote leave if DUP voters all turned out and SF supporters no longer did for Remain but indeed no new referendum would take place short of a LD victory, that is why Farron is marketing himself as the voice of the 48%, however he will only add a few points onto the LD poll rating at best, he won't get anywhere near that total
No - I'm sure he believes rejoining would be best, but it's also about the only move he can make and getting even a small portion of those 48 to stick with the LDs would be an improvement. They've tried to pitch for the pro-EU vote before and the vote wasn't there to be pitched for, but grabbing attention now, while there is still some emotional pro-eu voices wandering where they should go, is a reasonable move.
Indeed and LD voters overwhelmingly voted Remain so they have nothing to lose unlike Labour if it did the same
Liberal 70-30 Labour 63-37
I think. Not that much in it?
Hanratty estimates 70% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. That's potentially calamitous.
Many Tory constituencies voted Remain too, especially in London and the Home Counties. Overall more Tories voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave
I thought Tories were split 57-43% Leave according to yougov.
Still more Tory Remain voters than the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave
the fernch must be getting desperate, they are now claiming that a french worker on the national minimum wage is cheaper than a comparable polish worker.
Comments
http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-brexit-wont-stop-eu-expansion/a-19377700
@JGForsyth: Word is that Leadsom said that she would not trigger Article 50 immediately
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 14m
Senior Tory source just told me ballot papers may not go out til "mid August", much later than 1922 Cttee wanted. But good news for Leadsom
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/#more-14746
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.101193124
If you look at the agreement the EU signs separately from the individual member states as a contracting party in its own right. Each individual state also signs in its own right. EFTA does not.
https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/750075524077281280
In final round, May beats Leadsom by 32 points.
May 63%
Leadsom 31% https://t.co/txR2opHGPR
There is a strong chance that Brexit will not happen. There are too many hurdles on the horizon....an acceptable agreement to be made (with 27 of our very grumpy neighbours), a HoC vote where both houses are majority led by remainers, a possible GE, a possible second referendum, a business and establishment elite that is horrified at the result and is probably using it's energies at this very minute to work out how it can turn around things, the prospect of splitting the Union....and dealing with a full blown recession when it still feels like we haven't got through the last one.
To get that Article 50 invoked it would take some kind of herculean effort against all the odds.
I don't rate your chances to be honest. But then what do I know? I've got a low IQ.
May wins in EVERY category sometimes by 50+ points https://t.co/FbvH8nMwJn
15m15s into the programme below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-1HEQ8z3jo
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
- I do, however, think the smearing of Leadsom is a bit unnecessary. She's no right wing fruitcake.
- I think May will win the race at a canter.
- I am 100% certain Brexit will happen and the UK will leave
- I am even more certain that you are more educated abd brighter than I am. I left school at 17.
And mirrors exactly what I've heard from small businessmen oop-North. Labour is set to lose it's heartlands in Wales and the North, as well as what Remains in the Midlands because it is a pro-European party. And the party wants to ditch the leader because he wasn't sufficiently Pro-EU?
It'll all be the Tories fault for screwing up the post-Brexit outcome rather than those who actually voted Leave despite the warnings (many of whom will have conveniently forgotten that fact).
Looks like the border controls are working, only 5000 asylum seekers reached Germany in June.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/neue-zahlen-es-kommen-kaum-noch-fluechtlinge-nach-deutschland-14324712.html
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/2016/07/05/97002-20160705FILWWW00011-un-smicard-francais-moins-cher-qu-un-polonais.php
They forget the fench guy will spend his time striking and smoking Gauloises, while the Polish guy will actually work