I think Woolfe is the outstanding candidate and the one Labour would fear most. A lot of the attacks would be blunted because of his race and his Northern working class roots and he's also a calm, rational speaker. I'd be disappointed if they chose Nuttall, and Evans though a strong politician will be less effective with a female Tory PM.
To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.
Well Farage specifically said that their future lies in taking votes off Labour. Surely that means he hopes someone like Nuttall will win and the likes of Carsewell will be ejected and the likes od Richard Tyndall will leave of their own volition allowing them to become a socially conservative, economically statist party that can appeal to the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave as well as most of their own voters and some Tories who aren't on board for the modernisation plan started by Dave and George and probably TBC by Theresa.
Nuttall has the accent, but it needs a lot more than that. He would have to sound credible on a bigger state and he has been opposed to one for his entire political life.
No the man who helped save it. I wasn't a big Farage fan (as I am sure I made obvious on here over the last few years) and never voted for him as party leader but he undoubtedly was responsible for carrying the torch for Euroscepticism over the years and it is in great part due to him that we finally get to leave the EU.
He definitely should have stood down after the last election (or rather stayed stood down) and I think he was a divisive character in the Eurosceptic movement but it would be churlish not to admit the huge part he played in achieving something historic and great for Britain.
Yet, after all that, when Scotland goes he will still be the man who broke Britain.
No he won't.
It will be the electorates of the UK and Scotland which mat do that.
Only they have the power.
We wouldn't be entertaining a referendum if he hadn't lied and dog whistled so disgracefully in the campaign. Okay, he's not the only one, so I'll go for 'one of the people who broke Britain'.
That ashcroft poll was v close to GE2015 with a slight uptick for UKIP. Hardly sursprising given the hot political topic of the year. Plenty for UKIP still to fight for, particularly if brexit-light is on the cards.
May has 110 according to Crick. Is that the winning post as in guaranteed to go into next round? Assuming they all actually vote for her.
Nope, it's a series of secret ballots. Quite a few of her 'supporters' are probably those looking for a good job on the basis that she's the favourite.
The electorate is 330 though, so 110 guarantees someone will be in the top two of that particular ballot.
I certainly won't be upset if May gets the job, but it would be amusing if May ends up with many fewer MPs than have declared for her.
It was mentioned on here that that happened to Davis in '05.
That showed in spades how Machiavellian it all is.
Is Eagle running meant to be some sort of threat to Corbyn ?
I guess so. He now will face a challenge unless he resigns. The media seem to think that he will cling on until Wednesday in order to be able to call Blair a war criminal in Parliament. We'll see if he dares do it outside the safe zone of Commons (from where no legal action on defamation can result). Blair taking Corbyn to court would top the last week of political madness off nicely.
To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.
Well Farage specifically said that their future lies in taking votes off Labour. Surely that means he hopes someone like Nuttall will win and the likes of Carsewell will be ejected and the likes od Richard Tyndall will leave of their own volition allowing them to become a socially conservative, economically statist party that can appeal to the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave as well as most of their own voters and some Tories who aren't on board for the modernisation plan started by Dave and George and probably TBC by Theresa.
Nuttall has the accent, but it needs a lot more than that. He would have to sound credible on a bigger state and he has been opposed to one for his entire political life.
I honestly don't know what Nuttall stands for and given that I'm unashamedly an anorak surely it means he would be a blank state to the rest of the country.
The other issue facing UKIP is financing. If the Tories deliver article 50 and we leave, UKIP's big backers won't want to pile in on a party that is in favour of a big state and they have no chance of getting union funding.
As much as I can't stand the guy, he's a counter-example to the "all political careers end in failure" trope. He won his fight, he won't be the one to take the blame if it all goes to hell (that'll be brexit tories), he's the kind of person who will make a comfortable enough living through speeches, columns, and talking head segments. His reputation could only go downhill from here so makes sense to get out now.
I don't think this was his choice.
He gave an interview to LBC the other day that led to speculation that Mr Carswell was going to be kicked out of UKIP on Monday. Today. It looks like he lost a power struggle.
That's a good point. Wasn't the Short Money worth several million, going to be lost if they kicked Carswell out?
I got the impression that UKIP membership was mostly right wing tories, with a smattering of libertarians. Are they the sort of people who would back a canddate that appealed to labourites? I can't see it at the moment, I suppose Nuttall would be the one who tried to square that circle though.
I got the impression that UKIP membership was mostly right wing tories, with a smattering of libertarians. Are they the sort of people who would back a canddate that appealed to labourites? I can't see it at the moment, I suppose Nuttall would be the one who tried to square that circle though.
It's a good point. How representative of UKIP voters is the UKIP membership?
To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.
I agree. The party will now initially lose a lot of people like me who saw it as a vehicle for getting out of the EU but were opposed to its social conservatism and stand on immigration.
I am sure it will gain new voters from ex-Labour WWC types and of course it is right they have a voice but it is not the party for me. I would have left even without Farage quitting so this doesn't really change anything for me.
As an aside I buy the idea he is not a well man. His body has taken a lot of punishment over the years both accidental and self inflicted. I hope it isn't the case but I wonder if he has found he is rather more ill than hitherto thought.
More media a good thing I guess. Not sure it'll be the next The National
I can't say that I'll be rushing to subscribe, and I'm probably part of their target demographic.
Why launch a newspaper to fight the battle already lost; should they not have done this a year ago, to make the positive case for the EU in preparation for the referendum campaign?
To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.
Well Farage specifically said that their future lies in taking votes off Labour. Surely that means he hopes someone like Nuttall will win and the likes of Carsewell will be ejected and the likes od Richard Tyndall will leave of their own volition allowing them to become a socially conservative, economically statist party that can appeal to the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave as well as most of their own voters and some Tories who aren't on board for the modernisation plan started by Dave and George and probably TBC by Theresa.
Nuttall has the accent, but it needs a lot more than that. He would have to sound credible on a bigger state and he has been opposed to one for his entire political life.
I honestly don't know what Nuttall stands for and given that I'm unashamedly an anorak surely it means he would be a blank state to the rest of the country.
The other issue facing UKIP is financing. If the Tories deliver article 50 and we leave, UKIP's big backers won't want to pile in on a party that is in favour of a big state and they have no chance of getting union funding.
This kind of thing will not play well in Labour heartlands:
So Farage has gone? Send no flowers. Like Enoch before him, he'll be remembered as a politician who tried to drag bigotry into the mainstream, by feigning compassion for the uneducated and the resentful. Ironically, it was his behaviour during the campaign for the very referendum he'd dedicated his life to secure that left his reputation in tatters.
And there speaks the bilious voice of defeat. I am so glad you lost.
"Alain Juppé, the frontrunner in the race for the French centre-right presidential nomination, has reached out to a post-Brexit Britain, suggesting that restrictions on free movement of people should be up for negotiation "
I got the impression that UKIP membership was mostly right wing tories, with a smattering of libertarians. Are they the sort of people who would back a canddate that appealed to labourites? I can't see it at the moment, I suppose Nuttall would be the one who tried to square that circle though.
That's a good observation - we need to understand the process and electorate for choosing a new leader. They need to decide if the stereotypical old man in a blazer is the right person to win the disaffected WWC vote, which is surely now UKIP's target in 2020.
I would say Woolfe should be favourite assuming UKIP are going after Labour votes in the North.Suzanne Evans would have walked it a year ago but is too close to Carswell and too flaky in my opinion.The big proviso is whether UKIP will exist in its current form and whether bets will be honoured if not..Follow what Aaron Banks says and you will know what is going on and he flagged up Nigel would not want to lead the new party he is contemplating forming.
So Farage has gone? Send no flowers. Like Enoch before him, he'll be remembered as a politician who tried to drag bigotry into the mainstream, by feigning compassion for the uneducated and the resentful. Ironically, it was his behaviour during the campaign for the very referendum he'd dedicated his life to secure that left his reputation in tatters.
Dearie, dearie me. Nigel's political life has ended in triumph.
@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.
On a completely different note, I have been travelling on business for the last few weeks and the computer I had (Apple) and the lack of broadband meant my only fix of politics was a few minutes a day from this wonderful site. I couldn't comment (computer said no). Anyway, I followed the site on referendum night. Alone in a crazy country, with a bodyguard outside the room, no contact with the outside world except PB.com. I just got connected as the Sunderland result came in. The word...'BOOM' was uttered by one of you. As a Leaver, I was almost in tears. Thank you, PB, thank you Mike and TSE and the team, thank you commenters, you have made me very happy. (Will donate, promise).
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Leadsom is definitely pitching for the zealot vote
There's no other reason to vote for her, so that's probably sensible.
The mere fact she wont be sending home EU nationals shows that she'll capture less of the zealot vote than May. Perhaps she's the best candidate for those who believe when people vote to leave the EU we should actually leave the EU.
I suspect he's being a bit optimistic, but he does a good job of teasing out the various issues.
That's a very succinct summary of where we are and where we need to be. Flight would be a good choice for the Brexit team.
It is a good summary and well worth reading for that reason, but, on the other hand, his suggestion that Nigel Farage should be on the negotiating team is barking mad. Putting someone on the team whose entire career has largely comprised of childish insults aimed at the people you are negotiating with is not calculated to smooth over difficult points.
@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.
Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Not as good as Rightmove. These sites have been great in breaking the stranglehold of estate agents though, now one agent is as visible as another.
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
What do our PB legal experts think?
Hard to imagine MPs would vote against it, so it just seems like an enormous waste of time and money (since it'd probably be challenged all the way to the supreme court)
To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.
Mr. Observer, there are a lot of people who the main parties seem to want to ignore and who are unrepresented at local and national level. That is a gap in the market that UKIP could fill. They would need to change their focus but now their original purpose has been achieved they have to do that or die.
I would like them, or if not them then someone, to become the voice of the working poor, the council estate dwellers, those left behind, the people that Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a big rat's arse for. However, as someone has said up-thread, money will probably be the death of UKIP.
@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.
Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.
Or she is just utterly deluded. Where will the billions for NHS come from, as our economy tanks?
@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.
Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.
Or she is just utterly deluded. Where will the billions for NHS come from, as our economy tanks?
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.
The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.
Nuttall does have the NHS issue, but I don't think most of the working class have political views as ideological as wanting a "big state". They certainly support being tough on welfare etc.
Leadsom is definitely pitching for the zealot vote
There's no other reason to vote for her, so that's probably sensible.
Yes, she has to try and win over people who voted Leave but listed immigration as a secondary concern as well as those for whom it was the primary concern.
In my experience if I were to break down the members who voted Leave that I know, around a third voted on the basis of immigration alone, a third voted Leave on the basis of sovereignty but have concerns about immigration and the rest were not concerned with immigration and voted on the basis of sovereignty and control over our laws.
I think that puts her potential vote share at 40-45% of members assuming she can convert every single person who has any kind of concern about immigration to her cause. Gove possibly has the highest cap on his potential vote of the leavers but I'm not sure he will make the final two after Project Brutus.
Carswell has gone down in my estimation for that. I fundamentally disagreed with Farage and believe he has done immense damage to the reputation of the UK. But I suspect he is sincere in his beliefs and he has achieved his objectives. That is quite rare in political careers. It is right that he now bows out.
To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.
Mr. Observer, there are a lot of people who the main parties seem to want to ignore and who are unrepresented at local and national level. That is a gap in the market that UKIP could fill. They would need to change their focus but now their original purpose has been achieved they have to do that or die.
I would like them, or if not them then someone, to become the voice of the working poor, the council estate dwellers, those left behind, the people that Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a big rat's arse for. However, as someone has said up-thread, money will probably be the death of UKIP.
There is a very big gap in the market. But I am not sure UKIP has the leaders or members with the political inclinations to fill it. Nuttall has a Scouse accent, but has advocated abolishing the NHS. In Labour heartland constituencies one of those things is going to be a lot more important than the other.
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.
The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.
Only if you believe an advisory referendum trumps our 800 year old, democratically elected parliament
In Gloucestershire two of the three UKIP County Councillors obviously agree as they have joined the Tories.
Only one has joined the Conservatives , the other has gone Independent . Why the Conservatives should have accepted Alan Preest is a bit of a mystery as they had previously expelled him for theft . .
Comments
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/nigel-farage-ive-resigned-ukip-leader/
I hope the rumours about his health are unfounded - tho he doesn't look a young 52....(if I'd had to guess I'd put him late-50s)
The other issue facing UKIP is financing. If the Tories deliver article 50 and we leave, UKIP's big backers won't want to pile in on a party that is in favour of a big state and they have no chance of getting union funding.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/howard-flight-the-city-can-flourish-after-brexit-and-the-eea-option-is-the-safest-means-of-ensuring-this-happens.html
I suspect he's being a bit optimistic, but he does a good job of teasing out the various issues.
I am sure it will gain new voters from ex-Labour WWC types and of course it is right they have a voice but it is not the party for me. I would have left even without Farage quitting so this doesn't really change anything for me.
As an aside I buy the idea he is not a well man. His body has taken a lot of punishment over the years both accidental and self inflicted. I hope it isn't the case but I wonder if he has found he is rather more ill than hitherto thought.
Australian elections on as well
Tory leadership battle
UKIP leadership battle
Brexit
Labour in crisis.
All happening...
And Peter Lilley too !!
Nuttal is Northern/trade unionist - Woolfe Southern City man. Two very different target audiences.
If Kippers want to eat into Labour, it's surely Nuttal? Woolfe is very sensible on the TV.
I've backed Woolfe at 5/1,
https://tompride.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/ukip-nhs.png
"At #AndreaLeadsom4Leader launch I spy Lord Bell, former Thatcher advisor, "Are you advising Leadsom?" "Yes.""
https://next.ft.com/content/cc4028fa-411f-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d
Anne Widdecombe !! .......
Nigel's political life has ended in triumph.
Direct reference to Sunderland. Bigger housing budget, dedicated minister. Prioritise trade deals.
Guaranteed residency for EUers already here.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125439272
If it is positively European, will their first issue be reporting Jean-Claude Juncker's resignation?
Youth vote pitch.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Which Terminological inexactitudes will Corbyn offer today?
twitter.com/SkyMurnaghan/status/749557077647908864
Great start to negotiations!
Amateur hour......
Hard to imagine MPs would vote against it, so it just seems like an enormous waste of time and money (since it'd probably be challenged all the way to the supreme court)
I would like them, or if not them then someone, to become the voice of the working poor, the council estate dwellers, those left behind, the people that Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a big rat's arse for. However, as someone has said up-thread, money will probably be the death of UKIP.
In my experience if I were to break down the members who voted Leave that I know, around a third voted on the basis of immigration alone, a third voted Leave on the basis of sovereignty but have concerns about immigration and the rest were not concerned with immigration and voted on the basis of sovereignty and control over our laws.
I think that puts her potential vote share at 40-45% of members assuming she can convert every single person who has any kind of concern about immigration to her cause. Gove possibly has the highest cap on his potential vote of the leavers but I'm not sure he will make the final two after Project Brutus.