Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Farage quits and this time he says it’s for real

1246

Comments

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: I note that both Gove and May held launches introduced by senior people from opposing side of Brexit debate. Not Leadsom. #ToryLeadership
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Hearing that @Pulpstar's cat is in the bunker with Falconer.

    Rumours that the cat is within a whisker of persuading Charlie to go.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,957

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,397

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,018
    Scott_P said:

    @Morkins: Here are the rules for the UKIP leadership contest. @BBCNewsnight @UKIP https://t.co/IaT4jzncEi

    That AV thread is on ice, pending an explanation of FPTP by TSE!
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Hardly news Nigel standing down, I predicted it on here weeks ago, he's the most influential politician in decades, unbelievable that he's done that without being an MP. Having spent a bit of time with him he must be drained, I'm delighted he can step down having fulfilled 20 years of sheer graft.

    Woolf is my choice, measured, sensible, in many ways the antithesis of Nigel's charismatic shoot from the hip approach. It shouldn't matter but his mixed race will help, as will his Moss Side upbringing. Fascinating to see where the party goes from here.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: UKIP's only MP @DouglasCarswell says @ukip shd not be part of Brexit negotiations
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228

    eek said:

    To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?

    Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.

    Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
    Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...
    Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.

    There is a very big gap in the market. But I am not sure UKIP has the leaders or members with the political inclinations to fill it. Nuttall has a Scouse accent, but has advocated abolishing the NHS. In Labour heartland constituencies one of those things is going to be a lot more important than the other.

    .

    As the Leave promises crumble, UKIP claim the voters have been betrayed once again by the Westminster elite and the only way to truly deliver on Brexit and a post-Brexit utopia is to vote UKIP.

    Do that and I think they can get 50% of the Leave vote, which would be double their 2015 vote. Which I would find deeply depressing, but it seems an obvious strategy for them to take.

    This wouldn't work if the Tories adopt a hardline post-Brexit position by choosing Leadsom, but that seems unlikely at present. If Leadsom wins, then UKIP can just merge into the Conservatives.
    Exactly so, which is the EEA wing of the Brexiteers are storing up so much trouble for themselves (and the party) - The Great Betrayal On Immigration - while expecting we Remainers to see them through to this least worst option should a second referendum on the terms of exit be forthcoming. Some of us may not be so keen in getting them off the hook.

    But this will take 18 months or so, during which UKIP's polling is likely to decline. Cue for Generalissimo Nigel to retake the reins.....
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,239

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    Oppositions don't win elections; Governments lose them. As any vaguely competent student of politics knows.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Someone just took £56 @ 1000.0 on Owen Smith as our next Prime Minister. Bold, or possibly wrong market syndrome.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,957
    If the final two were Leadsom and Fox, I'd be voting Fox, that's how bad I think Andrea Leadsom is.

    Tombstoners and triggering Article 50 on day 1 one of her Premiership says it all.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    To be fair LuckyGuy is a kipper and long may he so remain.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
  • Options
    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.

    Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.

    Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.
    The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.
    Only if you believe an advisory referendum trumps our 800 year old, democratically elected parliament
    It should. What's the point of a referendum otherwise?
    What's the point of representative democracy if we overrule it with referendums?
    We didn't overrule it. We only had a referendum because our democratically elected Parliament chose to have a referendum.
    Whether a referendum should trump Parliamentary sovereignty is neither here nor there. It doesn't and that was made clear when it was held as an advisory referendum. Now whether it is politically a good idea for MPs to overturn the wishes of the people is a separate question.
    You seem to be a staunch supporter of Parliamentary sovereignty (as am I).

    I can't remember which way everyone who posts on PB.com voted. However, I since remaining in the EU would have meant further erosion of this sovereignty, then you must be a Leaver. (or maybe you did not vote?)
    No, Remainer. Sorry to disappoint. I just want the whole thing to be played by the rules.
    So do I. I am sure that you, personally, would accept it it Parliament passed some motion along the lines of "This House accepts the result of the EU referendum as the will of the British People, and that the UK will leave the EU".
    Forgive me for appearing cynical, but I am sure many Remainers will not. They will move on to some other excuse.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    Yes, I think if the May camp can engineer that then they might make it happen. Though there may be howls from Tombstone and the others in pursuit if ideological purity.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Henry Smith MP
    Seriously, have just received email from EU Commission employee located in Brussels demanding as #Crawley MP I vote to cancel UK referendum!
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,511

    RobD said:

    Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.

    Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.

    Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.
    The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.
    Only if you believe an advisory referendum trumps our 800 year old, democratically elected parliament
    It should. What's the point of a referendum otherwise?
    What's the point of representative democracy if we overrule it with referendums?
    To fill in the gaps that are not dealt with by direct democracy. Those gaps amount to more than 99.9% of government's and parliament's business.
    Are you saying Parliament would have been unable to hold a vote on leaving the EU?
    I have absolutely no idea how you've squeezed that interpretation from what I've written.

    To be clear: parliament can take a view on Brexit if it wants to; it just doesn't need to. had the referendum not been held then that would have been the natural forum for debate. But a referendum was held.

    On a related note, on more than one occasion, you've written of Britain's "democratically elected parliament", or other equivalent phrases. From where does parliament draw its authority?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    I dunno, I take the little 'un for a walk to a local park and another politician falls. Last week it was Boris whilst I was at a softplay.

    How much damage has Farage caused by unresigning last year? The referendum was going to happen anyway, and the party's hardly been united since. If Woolf or Evans had taken over last year, they might have been in a much better position to take advantage of both the referendum and the aftermath.

    P'haps.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,822

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.

    Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.
    Or she is just utterly deluded. Where will the billions for NHS come from, as our economy tanks?
    We shall grow the extra billions on a sovereignty tree, don't worry about it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411

    If the final two were Leadsom and Fox, I'd be voting Fox, that's how bad I think Andrea Leadsom is.

    Tombstoners and triggering Article 50 on day 1 one of her Premiership says it all.

    It would be very amusing if the MPs chose Leadsom vs Fox for the run-off.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    To be fair LuckyGuy is a kipper and long may he so remain.
    What a strange way to attract votes
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited July 2016
    Hes gone! Hes gone! I blame JackW's ARSE for this. :sob:
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    James Cleverly MP endorses May - Tom Newton Dunn via Sky News.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,111

    If the final two were Leadsom and Fox, I'd be voting Fox, that's how bad I think Andrea Leadsom is.

    Tombstoners and triggering Article 50 on day 1 one of her Premiership says it all.

    As I've said to friends, there are 5 candidates she isn't even my 5th choice.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    To be fair LuckyGuy is a kipper and long may he so remain.
    What a strange way to attract votes
    If appealing to one voter puts off another 10 voters is it a good idea?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,511

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    He's gone! He's Gone! I blame JackW's ARSE for this. :sob:
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Yes, well, but:

    ... Yvette Cooper ... Corbyn, ... Ed Miliband ...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,982
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: UKIP's only MP @DouglasCarswell says @ukip shd not be part of Brexit negotiations

    One does get the impression he might be about to rejoin the Tories, or at least sit as an independent Conservative in Parliament.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,608
    edited July 2016
    Thrak said:

    Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.

    Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.

    Not as good as Rightmove. These sites have been great in breaking the stranglehold of estate agents though, now one agent is as visible as another.
    Hmmm :-o .

    The Company was created in 2000 as a joint venture between four of the UK's largest property agents: Halifax, Countrywide plc, Royal & Sun Alliance, & Connells under the name Rightmove.co.uk Limited.

    Rightmove makes money from listing estate agents on its website and offering additional advertising products to those agents. The ads are visible to users who search for the area chosen by the estate agent. Individuals selling property privately (i.e. directly without an agent) are prohibited from advertising on the site.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rightmove
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    In office but not in power, hopelessly split and without a leader or a programme (just look at the last Queen's Speech) and seemingly bereft of ideas as to how to tackle the country's many problems. You think the Conservative Party is in a good situation?

    Oh, the membership has halved; now down to about 150,000, and they are going to choose our next PM, FFS.

    If Labour had a sensible Leader the Conservative Party would be on the ropes and doomed.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    To be fair LuckyGuy is a kipper and long may he so remain.
    What a strange way to attract votes
    Not really. In order to win his, or your, vote the Tories would have to have policies which drive away votes like mine. Leadsom as leader taking us out of the single market and not taking action on the causes of immigration (hint; it's not free movement) would most certainly drive me to another party.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Hardly news Nigel standing down, I predicted it on here weeks ago, he's the most influential politician in decades, unbelievable that he's done that without being an MP. Having spent a bit of time with him he must be drained, I'm delighted he can step down having fulfilled 20 years of sheer graft.

    Woolf is my choice, measured, sensible, in many ways the antithesis of Nigel's charismatic shoot from the hip approach. It shouldn't matter but his mixed race will help, as will his Moss Side upbringing. Fascinating to see where the party goes from here.

    I never noticed he was mixed race - he's much more urbane than Nuttal, the latter feels like a bruiser when he's been on QT.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228
    JackW said:

    James Cleverly MP endorses May - Tom Newton Dunn via Sky News.

    Ah, so is Sir Nicholas Soames

    Nice to see them reconciled:

    " James Cleverly, the newly elected Conservative MP for Braintree, approached Sir Nicholas Soames in a Commons dining room to say he agreed with his appeal for the party to unite after June's EU referendum and to hold off from personal attacks.

    But in an astonishing response, Sir Nicholas reportedly told Mr Cleverly: 'F*** off you c***.

  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,314

    Nigel - never fails to surprise. I feel sure we haven' t heard the last of him.

    If you're first statement is correct then your second cannot be.
    :neutral:
  • Options
    ManWithThePlanManWithThePlan Posts: 103
    edited July 2016
    The latest random criticism of Leadsom is that a friend of an MP's postman's dog's former owner claims she is a secret Southern Baptist. Dear God, the Remainers are in disarray.

    Just be honest. Her side beat your side and you have sour grapes.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    To be fair LuckyGuy is a kipper and long may he so remain.
    What a strange way to attract votes
    If appealing to one voter puts off another 10 voters is it a good idea?
    Hypothetically yes, but deliberately telling people their votes aren't wanted is odd.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    God even Crabb would be better than Cameron returning. If the Tories are looking back to a man who has spent the past 6 months humiliating himself then they're in a worse place than Labour. There are 2 or 3 candidates standing of an ability that Labour would kill to have, if I were a Tory member there is plenty of reason to be optimistic.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Crick Update :

    May 113 .. Leadsom 32 .. Gove 31 .. Crabb 24 .. Fox ??
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    PlatoSaid said:

    Hardly news Nigel standing down, I predicted it on here weeks ago, he's the most influential politician in decades, unbelievable that he's done that without being an MP. Having spent a bit of time with him he must be drained, I'm delighted he can step down having fulfilled 20 years of sheer graft.

    Woolf is my choice, measured, sensible, in many ways the antithesis of Nigel's charismatic shoot from the hip approach. It shouldn't matter but his mixed race will help, as will his Moss Side upbringing. Fascinating to see where the party goes from here.

    I never noticed he was mixed race - he's much more urbane than Nuttal, the latter feels like a bruiser when he's been on QT.
    Yes, Nuttall is good fun and smart but may lack a little gravitas, Woolf ticks every box for me.
  • Options
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    James Cleverly MP endorses May - Tom Newton Dunn via Sky News.

    Ah, so is Sir Nicholas Soames

    Nice to see them reconciled:

    " James Cleverly, the newly elected Conservative MP for Braintree, approached Sir Nicholas Soames in a Commons dining room to say he agreed with his appeal for the party to unite after June's EU referendum and to hold off from personal attacks.

    But in an astonishing response, Sir Nicholas reportedly told Mr Cleverly: 'F*** off you c***.

    Soames seems like a man who wants to embody Theresa May's nasty party.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: UKIP's only MP @DouglasCarswell says @ukip shd not be part of Brexit negotiations

    One does get the impression he might be about to rejoin the Tories, or at least sit as an independent Conservative in Parliament.
    He will be sacked. The only question is when.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The odds are shorter on Boris Johnson being next Prime Minister than Liam Fox. Harsh.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    PlatoSaid said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.

    There's another point to be made there:

    We might well end up with a female Conservative leader
    We might end up with a female Labour leader (e.g. Eagles)
    We might end up with a female UKIP leader (Evans / James)
    We have a female Green leader
    We have a female SNP leader
    We have a female Scottish Conservative leader
    We have a female Scottish Labour leader
    We have a female PC leader

    In which case Farron might end up with a rather odd USP - the only male leader of a major UK party!
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    JackW said:

    James Cleverly MP endorses May - Tom Newton Dunn via Sky News.

    Curious - he's a fairly committed Leaver.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    To be fair LuckyGuy is a kipper and long may he so remain.
    What a strange way to attract votes
    Not really. In order to win his, or your, vote the Tories would have to have policies which drive away votes like mine. Leadsom as leader taking us out of the single market and not taking action on the causes of immigration (hint; it's not free movement) would most certainly drive me to another party.
    As a free marketeer I'm pro freedom of movement, but welfare systems around the world mean it needs controlling in some ways.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,769

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    edited July 2016

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    Well they just need to ensure that in round 1 Gove is ahead of Leadsom and then to give Crabb enough MPs to beat Leadsom.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228
    edited July 2016

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    Ah, so is Sir Nicholas Soames

    Nice to see them reconciled:

    " James Cleverly, the newly elected Conservative MP for Braintree, approached Sir Nicholas Soames in a Commons dining room to say he agreed with his appeal for the party to unite after June's EU referendum and to hold off from personal attacks.

    But in an astonishing response, Sir Nicholas reportedly told Mr Cleverly: 'F*** off you c***.

    Let the love break out .. :smiley:

  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,523
    Does anyone else think it would be more fun if the results of the first ballot were not revealed? That is, all that would be known is who came last and therefore exited the race?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    James Cleverly MP endorses May - Tom Newton Dunn via Sky News.

    Ah, so is Sir Nicholas Soames

    Nice to see them reconciled:

    " James Cleverly, the newly elected Conservative MP for Braintree, approached Sir Nicholas Soames in a Commons dining room to say he agreed with his appeal for the party to unite after June's EU referendum and to hold off from personal attacks.

    But in an astonishing response, Sir Nicholas reportedly told Mr Cleverly: 'F*** off you c***.

    He obviously shares his grandfather's skill at repartee.
  • Options
    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    What seemed an interesting Tory line-up a few days ago now looks like the usual line-up of (mostly) no-hopers and misfits.

    Crabb sunk by his bizarre previous witterings about curing homosexuals, Leadsom demonstrating that she's another IDS - all the unelectability but with a louder voice, Gove the Tory Boy oddball who has now knifed "the People's PM" (but possibly did us all a favour frankly in doing so); Fox a failed third-rater and perennial leadership contest loser.

    May will walk it for the simple reason she's none of the above. And because she's generally well-liked, vaguely competent, stayed out of the referendum crossfire of lies and scaremongering, and is generally, well, normal.

    Though I suspect many millions of ordinary voters, when asked who they really want in charge up to 2020, would resoundingly say "David Cameron please".

    I think I would, despite his failings and the annoyances he has regularly caused me...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Surely easier to back Crabb into round 3 to ensure that the die hards don't all umite behind Leadsom.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.

    There's another point to be made there:

    We might well end up with a female Conservative leader
    We might end up with a female Labour leader (e.g. Eagles)
    We might end up with a female UKIP leader (Evans / James)
    We have a female Green leader
    We have a female SNP leader
    We have a female Scottish Conservative leader
    We have a female Scottish Labour leader
    We have a female PC leader

    In which case Farron might end up with a rather odd USP - the only male leader of a major UK party!
    And the LDs don't have a female MP to pick either. Perhaps they can find a transgender one and split the difference?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,511

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    Oppositions don't win elections; Governments lose them. As any vaguely competent student of politics knows.
    Nah, that's bollocks. A weak government is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for an opposition to win. The opposition also has to be up to the job. Otherwise the electorate will tend to cling on to nurse for (accurate) fear of worse. That was certainly the case in 1992 and 2005, and arguably so last year too.
  • Options
    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    Cameron could not even win a referendum with the four biggest parliamentary parties, big business, trade unions, the BBC, most of the broadsheets and the civil service on his side. His biggest political achievement is a majority of 12 against Ed Miliband.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited July 2016
    Nuttall on Sky now
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228
    tlg86 said:

    Does anyone else think it would be more fun if the results of the first ballot were not revealed? That is, all that would be known is who came last and therefore exited the race?

    In almost all contests within the party at local levels e.g. council groups, candidate selections,l election of officers etc, the vote numbers are not released.
  • Options
    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    Other than he got the gig on a false prospectus and went against his party and the country to deliver the hugest political screw-up since someone ate an apple. Apart from that he's class.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Why would Fox back May?
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MaxPB said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Surely easier to back Crabb into round 3 to ensure that the die hards don't all umite behind Leadsom.
    Yes, that's possible too, though less subtle. It would need to look like Leadsom had flunked something at that stage.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RoyalBlue said:

    JackW said:

    James Cleverly MP endorses May - Tom Newton Dunn via Sky News.

    Curious - he's a fairly committed Leaver.
    Only Leadsom and Fox appear to be unable to reach across and thus their pool of support is much lower. MP's also prefer to support the winner - Theresa May.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,982

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Which is why so many of us are shaking their heads at how he committed political suicide over the referendum.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Why would Fox back May?
    I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Will UKIP rebrand as UKP now?

    And when Scotland goes independent just P.

    I think we can all get behind the Party platform. They speak for everyone.
    The near future dystopian fiction writes itself.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,162
    Mr. Sykes, you can always back the Patrick Party.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sandpit said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Which is why so many of us are shaking their heads at how he committed political suicide over the referendum.
    Perhaps he wasn't very good at his job.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.

    Apart from that he was outstanding.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Why would Fox back May?
    I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
    I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Another vote for May

    @MichaelLCrick: Andrew Bridgen backing Leadsom for Tory leader.
  • Options
    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176

    Mr. Sykes, you can always back the Patrick Party.

    I had a "woosh" moment there - enlighten me...?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Which is why so many of us are shaking their heads at how he committed political suicide over the referendum.
    "Little Englanders"

    His political epitaph in my book.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2016

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.



    I'm not sure why May supporters need to vote tactically. She'll crush A N Other in the member ballot whoever the also run is.

  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,822
    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.

    Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.

    Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.
    The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.
    Only if you believe an advisory referendum trumps our 800 year old, democratically elected parliament
    It should. What's the point of a referendum otherwise?
    What's the point of representative democracy if we overrule it with referendums?
    We didn't overrule it. We only had a referendum because our democratically elected Parliament chose to have a referendum.
    Whether a referendum should trump Parliamentary sovereignty is neither here nor there. It doesn't and that was made clear when it was held as an advisory referendum. Now whether it is politically a good idea for MPs to overturn the wishes of the people is a separate question.
    You seem to be a staunch supporter of Parliamentary sovereignty (as am I).

    I can't remember which way everyone who posts on PB.com voted. However, I since remaining in the EU would have meant further erosion of this sovereignty, then you must be a Leaver. (or maybe you did not vote?)
    Parliament is sovereign within the eu, simply because we are capable of leaving at any time. Our parliament willingly goes along with EU laws because they judge EU membership to be in the greater interest of the U.K., even if an individual law works against our interest.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.

    Apart from that he was outstanding.
    Well, he did give us the vote ;)
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    PlatoSaid said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Why would Fox back May?
    I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
    I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
    Yeah what was that all about - was the insinuation that he and Werrity were more than, erm, friends?
  • Options

    Mr. Sykes, you can always back the Patrick Party.

    The natural choice of all stout fellows.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Aren't the Greenies electing a new leader today? Lucas again?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306

    PlatoSaid said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.

    There's another point to be made there:

    We might well end up with a female Conservative leader
    We might end up with a female Labour leader (e.g. Eagles)
    We might end up with a female UKIP leader (Evans / James)
    We have a female Green leader
    We have a female SNP leader
    We have a female Scottish Conservative leader
    We have a female Scottish Labour leader
    We have a female PC leader

    In which case Farron might end up with a rather odd USP - the only male leader of a major UK party!
    Aren't you forgetting the DUP there!
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    It has to be Nuttal for UKIP if they want to reach the Nothern Labour seats they need to be seen as a genuine alternative for wwc voters rather than just purple Tories.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,982

    MaxPB said:

    What a bunch of losers. True Tombstoners

    @SamCoatesTimes: Leadsom launch: also Stuart Jackson, Owen Paterson, James Morris

    Hmm, I just got a message saying that Leadsom is a God botherer which might explain why the Tombstone lot are falling in line behind her.
    Stewart Jackson and The Tombstone Group are backing her.

    If you want the Tory Party destroyed, then Andrea Leadsom is your candidate.
    On the contrary, the problem with the Tory Party is that instinct flows one way, and power and patronage have flowed the other way since Thatch.

    When they get a leader who is sensible, credible, and aligned with the wider party, it will be the saving of the Tory party. It's Cameron and his backers that have brought it to the brink.
    Well you're talking bollocks on stilts.

    Remember where the Tory Party was when Dave took over. Fewer than 200 MPs.

    Look at us now.

    You must miss the Halycon days of IDS's leadership. That's when we were on the brink.
    Oppositions don't win elections; Governments lose them. As any vaguely competent student of politics knows.
    Nah, that's bollocks. A weak government is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for an opposition to win. The opposition also has to be up to the job. Otherwise the electorate will tend to cling on to nurse for (accurate) fear of worse. That was certainly the case in 1992 and 2005, and arguably so last year too.
    Quite. The Conservatives have an awfully long way to fall before they start losing votes to Corbyn's Labour Party at a General Election.

    I'm not in favour of it, but if PM May calls a snap election it will probably end in either a 100 majority or with 50 UKIP MPs.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Julia Hartley Brewer
    Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.

    There's another point to be made there:

    We might well end up with a female Conservative leader
    We might end up with a female Labour leader (e.g. Eagles)
    We might end up with a female UKIP leader (Evans / James)
    We have a female Green leader
    We have a female SNP leader
    We have a female Scottish Conservative leader
    We have a female Scottish Labour leader
    We have a female PC leader

    In which case Farron might end up with a rather odd USP - the only male leader of a major UK party!
    Aren't you forgetting the DUP there!
    Indeed. ;)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,420

    PlatoSaid said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Why would Fox back May?
    I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
    I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
    Yeah what was that all about - was the insinuation that he and Werrity were more than, erm, friends?
    Surely May will want to face Crabb in final show down?
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.

    Apart from that he was outstanding.
    You seem to forget his many accomplishments whilst in office such as, well, er ... gay marriage and ....
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    RobD said:

    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.

    Apart from that he was outstanding.
    Well, he did give us the vote ;)
    For which I'm eternally grateful. The deluded fool thought he could sell sand to the Arabs because he surrounded himself with nodding dogs.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JackW said:

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.



    I'm not sure why May supporters need to vote tactically. She'll crush A N Other in the member ballot whoever the also run is.

    I agree. The idea was proffered in the spirit of "you can't be too careful". As our friends from the red team are all too aware.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited July 2016
    How many Cornerstone Groupers voted Remain? Crabb must've been one of very few.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
    That's what spreadsheets are for.

    Assuming 330 vote (might not be true)

    Rnd 1

    TM 145 (-30 tactical)
    MG 65 (+30 tactical)
    AL 55
    SC 45
    LF 20

    Fox out, he backs May

    Rnd 2

    TM 150 (-35 tactical)
    MG 71 (+35 tactical)
    AL 63
    SC 46

    Crabb out, he backs May too

    Rnd 3

    TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority)
    MG 75 (+40 tactical)
    AL 70
    Why would Fox back May?
    I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
    I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
    Yeah what was that all about - was the insinuation that he and Werrity were more than, erm, friends?
    That seemed to be the nudge-winking. Fox handled the whole thing really badly and IIRC changed his explanation more than once.
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    If Andrea Leadsom is the answer, you're asking the wrong fu*king question.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,239

    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.

    Apart from that he was outstanding.
    You seem to forget his many accomplishments whilst in office such as, well, er ... gay marriage and ....
    Quite. The man wouldn't stand head and shoulders over a bottle of Head and Shoulders.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,162
    Mr. Sykes, some weeks ago PB collectively (presumably starting with Mr. Patrick, hence the name) come up with the idea of a party most of us would like, which was a pro-civil liberties but fiscally conservative party, amongst other things, entitled the Patrick Party.
  • Options
    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.

    Apart from that he was outstanding.
    You seem to forget his many accomplishments whilst in office such as, well, er ... gay marriage and ....
    That's harsh, he also achieved his pledge to reduce immigration to tens of thousands.........
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,228
    edited July 2016
    Patrick said:

    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    Other than he got the gig on a false prospectus and went against his party and the country to deliver the hugest political screw-up since someone ate an apple. Apart from that he's class.
    Let history judge...his political career has certainly ended in spectacular failure, no point arguing against that. But will he be vindicated in the years ahead? I think he will.

    In the meantime I cannot resist the schadenfreude of observing how those glorious victors of June 23rd, Gove, Johnson and now increasingly Leadsom have well and truly f***ed themselves in the space of a single week.

    It's been commendably therapeutic: I am almost a semi-happy bunny again. Vote Theresa.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    JohnO said:

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.

    Maybe May v Crabb.
    That might be a provocation too far.
    Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
    If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
    If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.

    Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
    Delete seem, and Replace with is.
    I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.

    Apart from that he was outstanding.
    You seem to forget his many accomplishments whilst in office such as, well, er ... gay marriage and ....
    That's harsh, he also achieved his pledge to reduce immigration to tens of thousands.........
    And brought peace and prosperity to Libya.
This discussion has been closed.