Julia Hartley Brewer Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.
There's another point to be made there:
We might well end up with a female Conservative leader We might end up with a female Labour leader (e.g. Eagles) We might end up with a female UKIP leader (Evans / James) We have a female Green leader We have a female SNP leader We have a female Scottish Conservative leader We have a female Scottish Labour leader We have a female PC leader
In which case Farron might end up with a rather odd USP - the only male leader of a major UK party!
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
Maybe May v Crabb.
That might be a provocation too far.
Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.
Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
Delete seem, and Replace with is.
I'm still surprised how many tories view Cameron. He couldn't beat Brown on his own, scraped through against Miliband (my word those two were dreadful) and committed the most ridiculous political suicide in history.
Apart from that he was outstanding.
The Tories won their majority in 2015 on the back of Camerons personal ratings which were far in advance of those of the Conservative Party. Shame some of his own party were too dumb and disloyal to remember that. Probably going to work out ok for the Lib Dems though in 2020.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
Maybe May v Crabb.
That might be a provocation too far.
Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.
Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
Delete seem, and Replace with is.
Cameron could not even win a referendum with the four biggest parliamentary parties, big business, trade unions, the BBC, most of the broadsheets and the civil service on his side. His biggest political achievement is a majority of 12 against Ed Miliband.
Completely dishonest use of statistics there. He won 99 more seats than Ed Miliband and that is with boundaries in Labour's favour.
It's only be including Scotland and Northern Ireland (not Ed) that it is just 12.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
Julia Hartley Brewer Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.
There's another point to be made there:
We might well end up with a female Conservative leader We might end up with a female Labour leader (e.g. Eagles) We might end up with a female UKIP leader (Evans / James) We have a female Green leader We have a female SNP leader We have a female Scottish Conservative leader We have a female Scottish Labour leader We have a female PC leader
In which case Farron might end up with a rather odd USP - the only male leader of a major UK party!
Let history judge...his political career has certainly ended in spectacular failure, no point arguing against that. But will he be vindicated in the years ahead? I think he will.
How can Dave be vindicated on Brexit ?
If it is a success then he was on the wrong side of the argument. If it is a failure, well it was his decision to hold the referendum.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
Maybe May v Crabb.
That might be a provocation too far.
Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.
Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
Which is why so many of us are shaking their heads at how he committed political suicide over the referendum.
"Little Englanders"
His political epitaph in my book.
Indeed, Miss P. Before 2010 I was a massive fan of Cameron, as my posts on here at the time will testify. In office though he proved a huge disappointment as his real character was gradually revealed. I think his victory in the last GE was not so much down to him as Alex Salmond, that poster of of Milliband in his top pocket was pure genius.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
@HouseofCommons: Two Urgent Qs: 1. Legal status of EU nationals residing in the UK 2. Govt surplus target & corporation tax No statements. Details to follow
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
Maybe May v Crabb.
That might be a provocation too far.
Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.
Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
Delete seem, and Replace with is.
Cameron could not even win a referendum with the four biggest parliamentary parties, big business, trade unions, the BBC, most of the broadsheets and the civil service on his side. His biggest political achievement is a majority of 12 against Ed Miliband.
Completely dishonest use of statistics there. He won 99 more seats than Ed Miliband and that is with boundaries in Labour's favour.
It's only be including Scotland and Northern Ireland (not Ed) that it is just 12.
Ed Miliband and various oddjob nationalists. The point stands.
Angela Eagle is climbing Mount Pathetic. She must be near the summit now. Issue your goddamned challenge woman.
Starting to see some more thoughtful analysis of the construction PMIs.
On Cameron: I think he's done a fantastic job for the Conservatives. He'll never please some sections of the party, but we should be grateful to him for putting together the coalition. You only have to look at Europe for examples of how much worse it could have been - but we're often ungrateful for disasters avoided.
On reflection, part of my antipathy and determination to vote Leave was caused by the shock of his tone and demeanour when he finalised the EU offer with Tusk.
Given that I've always admired his sure-footedness when talking to the public (c.f. his Cameron Direct speeches), I'm still at a loss to understand how and why he failed to recognise and correct his mistakes.
@STJamesl: Blairite George Howarth to replace Dennis skinner - who has back Corbyn - on Labour's nec which could decide whether JC needs nominations
That is big news which has major betting implications. As I said earlier in the week - the Labour leader and Article 50 markets are fools markets because there are simply too many balls up in the air currently.
Julia Hartley Brewer Can someone in the LibDems please mount a leadership challenge against @timfarron. I'm worried that he's feeling a bit left out of the fun.
There's another point to be made there:
We might well end up with a female Conservative leader We might end up with a female Labour leader (e.g. Eagles) We might end up with a female UKIP leader (Evans / James) We have a female Green leader We have a female SNP leader We have a female Scottish Conservative leader We have a female Scottish Labour leader We have a female PC leader
In which case Farron might end up with a rather odd USP - the only male leader of a major UK party!
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
Mmmmh, I'm sure she was very understanding of her husband's "friend". What is it with politicians and sex scandals? Most are ugly and dull, go through life without a sniff and find themselves in a position where they might get a chance to drop their trousers and don't really mind who its with.
Let history judge...his political career has certainly ended in spectacular failure, no point arguing against that. But will he be vindicated in the years ahead? I think he will.
How can Dave be vindicated on Brexit ?
If it is a success then he was on the wrong side of the argument. If it is a failure, well it was his decision to hold the referendum.
Genuinely curious.
I think it's possible to have one's cake and eat it on this one. My hunch is that Brexit will not prove successful (however you measure the timescale) but the decision to let the people decide the issue is also one that is eminently defensible.
If Andrea Leadsom is the answer, you're asking the wrong fu*king question.
How about the question: "Since the Home Secretary can't be bothered to appear in either of the TV debates ahead of the referendum, who else could take part?"
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
Maybe May v Crabb.
That might be a provocation too far.
Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.
Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
Delete seem, and Replace with is.
Other than he got the gig on a false prospectus and went against his party and the country to deliver the hugest political screw-up since someone ate an apple. Apart from that he's class.
Let history judge...his political career has certainly ended in spectacular failure, no point arguing against that. But will he be vindicated in the years ahead? I think he will.
In the meantime I cannot resist the schadenfreude of observing how those glorious victors of June 23rd, Gove, Johnson and now increasingly Leadsom have well and truly f***ed themselves in the space of a single week.
It's been commendably therapeutic: I am almost a semi-happy bunny again. Vote Theresa.
Same here. June 24th a date which will live in infamy, but since then, I've had a good chuckle, especially at Boris. Boris destroyed the dream he had (leadership) in pursuit of the one he didn't (Brexit).
That it led to Nadine Dorries shedding tears for a posh Old Etonian Bullingdon boy was the cherry on the parfait.
Angela Eagle is climbing Mount Pathetic. She must be near the summit now. Issue your goddamned challenge woman.
Starting to see some more thoughtful analysis of the construction PMIs.
On Cameron: I think he's done a fantastic job for the Conservatives. He'll never please some sections of the party, but we should be grateful to him for putting together the coalition. You only have to look at Europe for examples of how much worse it could have been - but we're often ungrateful for disasters avoided.
On reflection, part of my antipathy and determination to vote Leave was caused by the shock of his tone and demeanour when he finalised the EU offer with Tusk.
Given that I've always admired his sure-footedness when talking to the public (c.f. his Cameron Direct speeches), I'm still at a loss to understand how and why he failed to recognise and correct his mistakes.
I think the book about this will be fascinating - he nuked himself again and again. The most memorable Ouch Moment was being compared to Neville Chamberlain. That was a megaton hit, and it clearly hurt.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority) MG 75 (+40 tactical) AL 70
Why would Fox back May?
I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
Yeah what was that all about - was the insinuation that he and Werrity were more than, erm, friends?
Surely May will want to face Crabb in final show down?
I agree - Leadsom is only gaining traction as the most palatable Brexiter. If May goes up against another Remain supporter it cancels her biggest weakness.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.
The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.
Only if you believe an advisory referendum trumps our 800 year old, democratically elected parliament
It should. What's the point of a referendum otherwise?
What's the point of representative democracy if we overrule it with referendums?
We didn't overrule it. We only had a referendum because our democratically elected Parliament chose to have a referendum.
Whether a referendum should trump Parliamentary sovereignty is neither here nor there. It doesn't and that was made clear when it was held as an advisory referendum. Now whether it is politically a good idea for MPs to overturn the wishes of the people is a separate question.
You seem to be a staunch supporter of Parliamentary sovereignty (as am I).
I can't remember which way everyone who posts on PB.com voted. However, I since remaining in the EU would have meant further erosion of this sovereignty, then you must be a Leaver. (or maybe you did not vote?)
Parliament is sovereign within the eu, simply because we are capable of leaving at any time. Our parliament willingly goes along with EU laws because they judge EU membership to be in the greater interest of the U.K., even if an individual law works against our interest.
A very nice sentiment - and one that I agree with. However, it wasn't the point that I was making!
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
Rather to my surprise, Liam Fox has actually been rather good recently, making sensible contributions both before and after the referendum, and avoiding the personal smears and attacks. A role for him on the Brexit negotiation team might be a good move.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
Maybe May v Crabb.
That might be a provocation too far.
Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.
Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
Which is why so many of us are shaking their heads at how he committed political suicide over the referendum.
"Little Englanders"
His political epitaph in my book.
Active Tories didn't like him much before the EU ref, since he went all liberal on them, obviously enjoyed the coalition, and was lining himself up to defend the EU. Now his epitaph is poor either way, since if Brexit goes well, he was wrong, and if it goes wrong, it was his fault for risking it.
Mr. Sykes, some weeks ago PB collectively (presumably starting with Mr. Patrick, hence the name) come up with the idea of a party most of us would like, which was a pro-civil liberties but fiscally conservative party, amongst other things, entitled the Patrick Party.
Ah, I see.
I'd like to think that party was the Tory Party - I have always been, and probably always will be, of the "one nation Tory" mindset.
Rather to my surprise, Liam Fox has actually been rather good recently, making sensible contributions both before and after the referendum, and avoiding the personal smears and attacks. A role for him on the Brexit negotiation team might be a good move.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority) MG 75 (+40 tactical) AL 70
Why would Fox back May?
I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
Yeah what was that all about - was the insinuation that he and Werrity were more than, erm, friends?
Surely May will want to face Crabb in final show down?
I agree - Leadsom is only gaining traction as the most palatable Brexiter. If May goes up against another Remain supporter it cancels her biggest weakness.
Leadsom could beat May in the final members vote. I'm green all over, so ok, but win big if May. Best if May makes sure she's up against Crabb in final.
Actually my main feeling towards Dave is still anger. I feel he let me down and/or he deceived me. I used to be a big fan. I thought the coalition was a necessary thing to eject Gordo. Ozzy seemed to start in the right vane. I liked him alot. But we slowly seem to have given up on the deficit and to have abandoned structural reform (apart from schools). Dave morphed (or always was) an establishment stooge. He actually likes the EU. He clearly doesn't feel instinctively hostile to the lack of democracy and ever expanding desire for control. He lost me at that point but not in an angry way. The anger stems from the Remain campaign. The 'little Englander', the getting a foreign president to come and threaten me, etc, etc. I want a PM whose natural instinct is to put the UK first. Basically Dave revealed a mindset that I can never support.
Let history judge...his political career has certainly ended in spectacular failure, no point arguing against that. But will he be vindicated in the years ahead? I think he will.
How can Dave be vindicated on Brexit ?
If it is a success then he was on the wrong side of the argument. If it is a failure, well it was his decision to hold the referendum.
Genuinely curious.
I think it's possible to have one's cake and eat it on this one. My hunch is that Brexit will not prove successful (however you measure the timescale) but the decision to let the people decide the issue is also one that is eminently defensible.
Which then leaves him as a loser on the biggest issue to affect the country in decades. So pulp is right, like Blair before him, one big misjudgement fills all the space on his tombstone.
Rather to my surprise, Liam Fox has actually been rather good recently, making sensible contributions both before and after the referendum, and avoiding the personal smears and attacks. A role for him on the Brexit negotiation team might be a good move.
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
UKIP could rebrand themselves as The Nutty Boys, but that would be Complete Madness.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
Maybe May v Crabb.
That might be a provocation too far.
Have they learned nothing from Labour? Try to mess around and you my get a nasty surprise.
If they decide not to offer Leadsom to the membership, that will indicate that they have, in fact, learned their lesson well.
If Theresa May cannot beat Leadsom, then maybe Cameron needs to do a Farage and un-resign.
Cameron does seem head and shoulders above all of the candidates.
Delete seem, and Replace with is.
Other than he got the gig on a false prospectus and went against his party and the country to deliver the hugest political screw-up since someone ate an apple. Apart from that he's class.
Let history judge...his political career has certainly ended in spectacular failure, no point arguing against that. But will he be vindicated in the years ahead? I think he will.
In the meantime I cannot resist the schadenfreude of observing how those glorious victors of June 23rd, Gove, Johnson and now increasingly Leadsom have well and truly f***ed themselves in the space of a single week.
It's been commendably therapeutic: I am almost a semi-happy bunny again. Vote Theresa.
Same here. June 24th a date which will live in infamy, but since then, I've had a good chuckle, especially at Boris. Boris destroyed the dream he had (leadership) in pursuit of the one he didn't (Brexit).
That it led to Nadine Dorries shedding tears for a posh Old Etonian Bullingdon boy was the cherry on the parfait.
Ha. The Nadine "look" to Nadhim Zahawi next to her was on a par with Mrs Duffy's "look" when confronted with what Gordo had just said about her.
Actually my main feeling towards Dave is still anger. I feel he let me down and/or he deceived me. I used to be a big fan. I thought the coalition was a necessary thing to eject Gordo. Ozzy seemed to start in the right vane. I liked him alot. But we slowly seem to have given up on the deficit and to have abandoned structural reform (apart from schools). Dave morphed (or always was) an establishment stooge. He actually likes the EU. He clearly doesn't feel instinctively hostile to the lack of democracy and ever expanding desire for control. He lost me at that point but not in an angry way. The anger stems from the Remain campaign. The 'little Englander', the getting a foreign president to come and threaten me, etc, etc. I want a PM whose natural instinct is to put the UK first. Basically Dave revealed a mindset that I can never support.
The most pertinent long-run point in there may be about the deficit. The Tories have spent five years telling us of their long-term economic plan, how essential it is to remove the deficit, and ridiculing any alternative view. Yet the only time we've seen Osbo recently, he junked it all.
Rather to my surprise, Liam Fox has actually been rather good recently, making sensible contributions both before and after the referendum, and avoiding the personal smears and attacks. A role for him on the Brexit negotiation team might be a good move.
He also hasn't sold the pass on residency rights - unlike some of the leading amateurs from LEAVE:
With divisions emerging on how Tory leadership hopefuls would handle the issue of EU migrants living in the UK if free movement is curtailed, Liam Fox called for "mutuality" between these people and Britons living overseas in the EU.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority) MG 75 (+40 tactical) AL 70
Why would Fox back May?
I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
Yeah what was that all about - was the insinuation that he and Werrity were more than, erm, friends?
Surely May will want to face Crabb in final show down?
I agree - Leadsom is only gaining traction as the most palatable Brexiter. If May goes up against another Remain supporter it cancels her biggest weakness.
But could cause another decade of Tory infighting over Europe. It may lead to the dam finally bursting.
May needs to be in a head to head with a Brexiter. And then win convincingly.
Mr. Sykes, some weeks ago PB collectively (presumably starting with Mr. Patrick, hence the name) come up with the idea of a party most of us would like, which was a pro-civil liberties but fiscally conservative party, amongst other things, entitled the Patrick Party.
Ah, I see.
I'd like to think that party was the Tory Party - I have always been, and probably always will be, of the "one nation Tory" mindset.
A party which was fiscally conservative and socially liberal and pro immigration might win Kensington and Chelsea, Putney, Westminster, Richmond Upon Thames, Tunbridge Wells and a few seats in Surrey but it would get trounced everywhere else
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
UKIP could rebrand themselves as The Nutty Boys, but that would be Complete Madness.
[ps: is there a way to stop this hideous nesting of multiple posts, short of chopping out loads of text manually (which whenever I do it seems to go wrong and leave my comment and quote all in the same text)?]
Leadsom could beat May in the final members vote. I'm green all over, so ok, but win big if May. Best if May makes sure she's up against Crabb in final.
If it's May v Crabb in the final two there will be trouble. The membership will probably vote for May whoever she's up against, but they won't like being railroaded into voting for a Remainer.
What I like most about the Conservative leadership election is that the two leading candidates are both women and they have got there on merit, not on a "elect me because I'm a woman" platform.
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
UKIP could rebrand themselves as The Nutty Boys, but that would be Complete Madness.
Let history judge...his political career has certainly ended in spectacular failure, no point arguing against that. But will he be vindicated in the years ahead? I think he will.
How can Dave be vindicated on Brexit ?
If it is a success then he was on the wrong side of the argument. If it is a failure, well it was his decision to hold the referendum.
Genuinely curious.
I think the Remain faction - Cameron's faction essentially - will be the ones to sort out the new order eventually, either by embracing the new dawn, compromising with the more cautious Leavers, or, less likely, reasserting the status quo. Whether that counts as vindication is debatable.
Boris Johnson's article in the Telegraph is interesting for flagging up the intellectual bankruptcy of his campaign. He complains about the other side offering a binary choice while unable to explain how Leave could be made to work. He now leaves it to them to sort things out. He, along with Michael Gove, were supposed to be intellectual heavyweights against Cameron's empty thinking. Nigel Farage is at least consistent and focused, but has never been near power.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority) MG 75 (+40 tactical) AL 70
Why would Fox back May?
I think he would like to return to the Cabinet.
I like Fox on the telly, but his Werrity screw up holes him below the water. Some fairly harmless portfolio for him.
Yeah what was that all about - was the insinuation that he and Werrity were more than, erm, friends?
Surely May will want to face Crabb in final show down?
I agree - Leadsom is only gaining traction as the most palatable Brexiter. If May goes up against another Remain supporter it cancels her biggest weakness.
But could cause another decade of Tory infighting over Europe. It may lead to the dam finally bursting.
May needs to be in a head to head with a Brexiter. And then win convincingly.
But in running a leadership campaign she has to think about how to win in the short term not the long term good. A lot can happen in a head to head 5 week campaign, and with the majority of members backing Brexit, why take the risk?
Rather to my surprise, Liam Fox has actually been rather good recently, making sensible contributions both before and after the referendum, and avoiding the personal smears and attacks. A role for him on the Brexit negotiation team might be a good move.
Yes, Fox being surprisingly sensible. I thought Leadsom had a good war as well, but so far her leadership bid has been quite grubby. If she loses May will want to stamp her authority and send Leadsom to do penance in DfID or some other non-entity department. Instead of coming out and disowning all of the UKIP/Leave.EU backing she seems to be turning a blind eye or even encouraging it by not denying whether Farage would be given a role in her potential government.
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
Yes he probably is - I recall seeing him on question time and he seemed to perform well on TV as well which never hurts. He'll need to backtrack on those NHS privatisation statements but I don't think that will hold him back much.
If UKIP do become more explicitly labour-targeting, it leaves an opening for the tories to become more centre ground without losing the old traditional tory/kipper votes on the right flank. Would expect Theresa to tack further left, much more in the mould of Merkel than Thatcher. Labour could be seriously screwed, losing votes up north to kippers, no sign of a comeback in Scotland, a resurgent and explicitly pro-eu lib dem party taking youth votes (more so if Corbyn is deposed), and the tories solidifying their grasp on centrist voters.
Mr. Sykes, some weeks ago PB collectively (presumably starting with Mr. Patrick, hence the name) come up with the idea of a party most of us would like, which was a pro-civil liberties but fiscally conservative party, amongst other things, entitled the Patrick Party.
Ah, I see.
I'd like to think that party was the Tory Party - I have always been, and probably always will be, of the "one nation Tory" mindset.
A party which was fiscally conservative and socially liberal and pro immigration might win Kensington and Chelsea, Putney, Westminster, Richmond Upon Thames, Tunbridge Wells and a few seats in Surrey but it would get trounced everywhere else
What I like most about the Conservative leadership election is that the two leading candidates are both women and they have got there on merit, not on a "elect me because I'm a woman" platform.
We picked over this last night. Civil service drafting is objectively terrible to anyone with commercial experience. Officials don't like ministers who ask awkward questions or demand more evidence and so forth. Officials like house-trained ministers. It is known.
She might have been terrible, but the reasons presented don't necessarily support that thesis.
What I like most about the Conservative leadership election is that the two leading candidates are both women and they have got there on merit, not on a "elect me because I'm a woman" platform.
Well said. AWS seem to have backfired all over Labour.
I see Vicky Pryce is back on Sky - why? How many other ex-jailbirds do they invite on unless its to talk about prison reform?
@STJamesl: Blairite George Howarth to replace Dennis skinner - who has back Corbyn - on Labour's nec which could decide whether JC needs nominations
That is big news which has major betting implications. As I said earlier in the week - the Labour leader and Article 50 markets are fools markets because there are simply too many balls up in the air currently.
Bar David Miliband (just lay him) the sheer movement on the labour leader market means its been incredibly easy to trade into a decent position....
The idea that Angela Eagle is a 5/2 chance of winning the leadership tells you how many fools there are in that market..
Actually my main feeling towards Dave is still anger. I feel he let me down and/or he deceived me. I used to be a big fan. I thought the coalition was a necessary thing to eject Gordo. Ozzy seemed to start in the right vane. I liked him alot. But we slowly seem to have given up on the deficit and to have abandoned structural reform (apart from schools). Dave morphed (or always was) an establishment stooge. He actually likes the EU. He clearly doesn't feel instinctively hostile to the lack of democracy and ever expanding desire for control. He lost me at that point but not in an angry way. The anger stems from the Remain campaign. The 'little Englander', the getting a foreign president to come and threaten me, etc, etc. I want a PM whose natural instinct is to put the UK first. Basically Dave revealed a mindset that I can never support.
The most pertinent long-run point in there may be about the deficit. The Tories have spent five years telling us of their long-term economic plan, how essential it is to remove the deficit, and ridiculing any alternative view. Yet the only time we've seen Osbo recently, he junked it all.
I think that it's the main reason why I would like to see a GE after things settle down. One of the main reasons the Tories were elected last year was on the basis of fiscal control and 'finishing the job' started by the coalition. If this aspect is gone then so, in my opinion, is the mandate for the current Tory government. Of course, I accept the argument that circumstances have changed but so has policy - and that should be a matter for the electorate.
Mr. Sykes, some weeks ago PB collectively (presumably starting with Mr. Patrick, hence the name) come up with the idea of a party most of us would like, which was a pro-civil liberties but fiscally conservative party, amongst other things, entitled the Patrick Party.
Ah, I see.
I'd like to think that party was the Tory Party - I have always been, and probably always will be, of the "one nation Tory" mindset.
A party which was fiscally conservative and socially liberal and pro immigration might win Kensington and Chelsea, Putney, Westminster, Richmond Upon Thames, Tunbridge Wells and a few seats in Surrey but it would get trounced everywhere else
Which is why Boris won the mayoralty - he was all of those things until February.
@STJamesl: Blairite George Howarth to replace Dennis skinner - who has back Corbyn - on Labour's nec which could decide whether JC needs nominations
That is big news which has major betting implications. As I said earlier in the week - the Labour leader and Article 50 markets are fools markets because there are simply too many balls up in the air currently.
Bar David Miliband (just lay him) the sheer movement on the labour leader market means its been incredibly easy to trade into a decent position....
The idea that Angela Eagle is a 5/2 chance of winning the leadership tells you how many fools there are in that market..
@STJamesl: Blairite George Howarth to replace Dennis skinner - who has back Corbyn - on Labour's nec which could decide whether JC needs nominations
That is big news which has major betting implications. As I said earlier in the week - the Labour leader and Article 50 markets are fools markets because there are simply too many balls up in the air currently.
Bar David Miliband (just lay him) the sheer movement on the labour leader market means its been incredibly easy to trade into a decent position....
The idea that Angela Eagle is a 5/2 chance of winning the leadership tells you how many fools there are in that market..
1) There needs to be a new prime minister fast. When Theresa May wins the first round tomorrow, any other candidates who are reluctant to drop out should have their heads knocked together until they change their minds.
2) May should state as follows.
a) It was a failing of the previous government that it did not plan properly for the contingency of a Leave win.
b) Article 50 may only be invoked by the will of Parliament, because it would effectively repeal the European Communities Act 1972 or at least turn that Act into a dead letter, neither of which may be effected except by will of Parliament. To try to invoke it by royal prerogative would therefore be unlawful, and it would also be a breach of the spirit of both the Sewel convention and the Ponsonby rule.
c) This government will over the course of the next few months draw up a plan for leaving the EU. It cannot of course be sure of achieving its aims, because they depend on negotiation with the other 27 states, but it will do its best, and it will develop a clear policy regarding EFTA, EEA and the movement of people.
d) It will then put its plan to the House of Commons.
i) If the house does not support its plan, Britain will not invoke A50 and will stay in the EU.
ii) If the house supports its plan, the government will then call a binding referendum. If the answer is yes, article 50 will be invoked immediately. If the answer is no, Britain will stay in the EU.
e) The government will introduce a motion before the House of Commons RIGHT NOW in favour of this course of action. That motion will also be a confidence motion. If it fails, May will call an immediate general election.
3) May's government is likely to win the support of the Commons. Tory MPs will be scared of losing their seats either to the LibDems or to UKIP.
4) The findings of the latest Ashcroft poll are remarkable: 69% of Leave voters think the vote didn't matter very much; 23% of Remain voters agree. It could be argued that this means they didn't think it would have much effect, but I believe that interpretation would be mistaken and what it really means is that many Leave voters didn't care very much. They thought it was like the Eurovision song contest or something. That would accord with the finding that 70% expected Remain to win. These findings provide a clear case for not invoking A50 without another referendum. If you live in a family of three, and one person really wants X for dinner and the other two don't mind much but would prefer Y, what do you have for dinner?
5) The Chilcot report will be published at 10am on Wednesday. I predict that the withdrawal of the last candidate for the Tory leadership who isn't Theresa May will happen within two hours of that time. She may even call a press conference at 10 or 10.30.
Got it. It seems the preponderance of Boris backers are heading to May. First Ballot will be instructive but suspect TM probably heading towards half the party in R1 and not beyond the bounds of possibility she could breach 200 on final MP vote.
We picked over this last night. Civil service drafting is objectively terrible to anyone with commercial experience. Officials don't like ministers who ask awkward questions or demand more evidence and so forth. Officials like house-trained ministers. It is known.
She might have been terrible, but the reasons presented don't necessarily support that thesis.
I say this as a Theresa supporter.
And the fact that May's behaviour as a minister comes in for related criticism in the pulled telegraph article does make you wonder whether some of these senior men just don't like working for a woman.
Leadsom could beat May in the final members vote. I'm green all over, so ok, but win big if May. Best if May makes sure she's up against Crabb in final.
If it's May v Crabb in the final two there will be trouble. The membership will probably vote for May whoever she's up against, but they won't like being railroaded into voting for a Remainer.
Some of those MPs who have publicly backed them will have trouble from their Associations.
What I like most about the Conservative leadership election is that the two leading candidates are both women and they have got there on merit, not on a "elect me because I'm a woman" platform.
Well said. AWS seem to have backfired all over Labour.
I see Vicky Pryce is back on Sky - why? How many other ex-jailbirds do they invite on unless its to talk about prison reform?
Why not? Nobody ever challenged her credentials as an economist.
I seem to remember seeing plenty of that paragon of your party Aitken after his dose of bird.
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
UKIP could rebrand themselves as The Nutty Boys, but that would be Complete Madness.
Mending broken Britain..........Too big an ask to fix for one PM but has he made strides towards it? Hmmm some will say the underclass has got bigger poverty in the U.K has jumped by 200,000 but this more to do with how it is measured as oddly "poverty" falls during a recession but rises during a recovery, he never took the realisic step of redifining poverty. Oh and hasn't really done anything to make the family stronger though I don't know what he can really do considering it's not really the governments business to encourage one type of family over the other.0/10
Reducing net migration to the tens of thousands...........Lol. 1/10
A big society/devolution of power away from the centre.................A tough one to answer as this means different things to different people, Gove has introduced free schools, devolved power away from local authorities to teachers across thousands of academies, the majority of High schools are now academies and even Labour won't get rid of them now, so a success of sorts increasing the big society which never meant just making charities do the job of the state. The prison reforms is going along the same lines with governers given more powers as well as PCC's and NHS trusts etc a real change and devolution of power away from the centre.Too much power is still in central government thought and many people do not feel they have power which resulted in the hugley split vote in the E.U ref. 6/10. (Well done Gove).
Reducing the deficit/rebalancing the economy..........the structual deficit was supposed to be eliminated by now, but the weak eurozone has hampered that effort but progress has been made all be it much slower than hoped. The economy has not rebalanced at all, will it rebalance now the pound has plunged and the eurozone is showing signs of life? We shall see. 5/10
Reforming welfare......................Atos have been a disaster for many people and must be held to account but overall the welfare reforms were needed and well overdue employment is at a record high, universal credit is coming but ofcourse massive changes will have huge bumps (mountains?) in the road, raising the minimum wage and cutting tax credits was right to do although the master stratergist should have got it right in the first place. 7.5/10. Overall I give Cameron 5/10 he knew the things wrong with Britain and talked a good game but HE NEVER FOLLOWED THROUGH. Fustrating.
1) There needs to be a new prime minister fast. When Theresa May wins the first round tomorrow, any other candidates who are reluctant to drop out should have their heads knocked together until they change their minds.
2) May should state as follows.
a) It was a failing of the previous government that it did not plan properly for the contingency of a Leave win.
snip
i) If the house does not support its plan, Britain will not invoke A50 and will stay in the EU.
ii) If the house supports its plan, the government will then call a binding referendum. If the answer is yes, article 50 will be invoked immediately. If the answer is no, Britain will stay in the EU.
e) The government will introduce a motion before the House of Commons RIGHT NOW in favour of this course of action. That motion will also be a confidence motion. If it fails, May will call an immediate general election.
3) May's government is likely to win the support of the Commons. Tory MPs will be scared of losing their seats either to the LibDems or to UKIP.
4) The findings of the latest Ashcroft poll are remarkable: 69% of Leave voters think the vote didn't matter very much; 23% of Remain voters agree. It could be argued that this means they didn't think it would have much effect, but I believe that interpretation would be mistaken and what it really means is that many Leave voters didn't care very much. They thought it was like the Eurovision song contest or something. That would accord with the finding that 70% expected Remain to win. These findings provide a clear case for not invoking A50 without another referendum. If you live in a family of three, and one person really wants X for dinner and the other two don't mind much but would prefer Y, what do you have for dinner?
5) The Chilcot report will be published at 10am on Wednesday. I predict that the withdrawal of the last candidate for the Tory leadership who isn't Theresa May will happen within two hours of that time. She may even call a press conference at 10 or 10.30.
Interesting. Not sure I follow item 5 though? Why? The focus will be all on Blair and Labour leadership mess.
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
Yes he probably is - I recall seeing him on question time and he seemed to perform well on TV as well which never hurts. He'll need to backtrack on those NHS privatisation statements but I don't think that will hold him back much.
If UKIP do become more explicitly labour-targeting, it leaves an opening for the tories to become more centre ground without losing the old traditional tory/kipper votes on the right flank. Would expect Theresa to tack further left, much more in the mould of Merkel than Thatcher. Labour could be seriously screwed, losing votes up north to kippers, no sign of a comeback in Scotland, a resurgent and explicitly pro-eu lib dem party taking youth votes (more so if Corbyn is deposed), and the tories solidifying their grasp on centrist voters.
Steven Woolfe also fits the bill background wise - northern, working class, but has a slightly more impressive professional track record. And he's mixed race.
A woman leading the Tories, someone of mixed race leading UKIP, and a 67 year old middle class white man leading Labour - I'd love that so much, the existential crisis on the left would be wonderful to watch!
If Andrea Leadsom is the answer, you're asking the wrong fu*king question.
By her friends you will know her. Slightly surprised Teresa Gorman hasn't been levered from her grave to complete the set.
If the question was " which minister is going to dis-connect with the public most over her use of off-shore tax havens and trusts to avoid tax during a time of austerity" then it would work
1) There needs to be a new prime minister fast. When Theresa May wins the first round tomorrow, any other candidates who are reluctant to drop out should have their heads knocked together until they change their minds.
2) May should state as follows.
a) It was a failing of the previous government that it did not plan properly for the contingency of a Leave win.
i) If the house does not support its plan, Britain will not invoke A50 and will stay in the EU.
ii) If the house supports its plan, the government will then call a binding referendum. If the answer is yes, article 50 will be invoked immediately. If the answer is no, Britain will stay in the EU.
e) The government will introduce a motion before the House of Commons RIGHT NOW in favour of this course of action. That motion will also be a confidence motion. If it fails, May will call an immediate general election.
3) May's government is likely to win the support of the Commons. Tory MPs will be scared of losing their seats either to the LibDems or to UKIP.
4) The findings of the latest Ashcroft poll are remarkable: 69% of Leave voters think the vote didn't matter very much; 23% of Remain voters agree. It could be argued that this means they didn't think it would have much effect, but I believe that interpretation would be mistaken and what it really means is that many Leave voters didn't care very much. They thought it was like the Eurovision song contest or something. That would accord with the finding that 70% expected Remain to win. These findings provide a clear case for not invoking A50 without another referendum. If you live in a family of three, and one person really wants X for dinner and the other two don't mind much but would prefer Y, what do you have for dinner?
5) The Chilcot report will be published at 10am on Wednesday. I predict that the withdrawal of the last candidate for the Tory leadership who isn't Theresa May will happen within two hours of that time. She may even call a press conference at 10 or 10.30.
4) No it means Leave voters think the country will prosper outside the EU while Remain voters think we face Armaggeddon
Got it. It seems the preponderance of Boris backers are heading to May. First Ballot will be instructive but suspect TM probably heading towards half the party in R1 and not beyond the bounds of possibility she could breach 200 on final MP vote.
I think she'll want some of her supporters to back Crabb enough to pull ahead of Leadsom in the first round so the leave backers coalesce around Gove who will be easy pickings given all of his statements about not being up to the job.
Mr. Sykes, some weeks ago PB collectively (presumably starting with Mr. Patrick, hence the name) come up with the idea of a party most of us would like, which was a pro-civil liberties but fiscally conservative party, amongst other things, entitled the Patrick Party.
Ah, I see.
I'd like to think that party was the Tory Party - I have always been, and probably always will be, of the "one nation Tory" mindset.
A party which was fiscally conservative and socially liberal and pro immigration might win Kensington and Chelsea, Putney, Westminster, Richmond Upon Thames, Tunbridge Wells and a few seats in Surrey but it would get trounced everywhere else
Cameron's Tories managed a few more.
Yes but Cameron's Tories promised to control immigration and take a tough line on drugs etc, they were not really libertarian even if relatively liberal in Tory terms
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Parliamentary Party decide to offer the members the choice of May vs Gove, just in case. Theresa must have MPs to spare.
That would be the sensible tactical move but it's a delicate game. She'd need to boost Gove in the first round to avoid (1) it looking obvious as to what's going on, and (2) losing votes from round-to-round, which would make it look as if opinion was moving away from her.
TM 185 (-40 tactical, NB a comfortable majority) MG 75 (+40 tactical) AL 70
Surely easier to back Crabb into round 3 to ensure that the die hards don't all umite behind Leadsom.
But most Crabb supporters will back May.
Crabb dropping out gives them far more votes to play with.
If R3 is May, Crabb and Leadsom, most of Gove will have transferred to Leadsom. To then get Crabb into the Final requires May's total to fall very substantially - so she would no longer be the clear winner. Indeed it may be almost impossible if Leadsom can get close to 110 - which she may very well do with all of Gove's transfers.
1) There needs to be a new prime minister fast. When Theresa May wins the first round tomorrow, any other candidates who are reluctant to drop out should have their heads knocked together until they change their minds.
2) May should state as follows.
a) It was a failing of the previous government that it did not plan properly for the contingency of a Leave win.
i) If the house does not support its plan, Britain will not invoke A50 and will stay in the EU.
ii) If the house supports its plan, the government will then call a binding referendum. If the answer is yes, article 50 will be invoked immediately. If the answer is no, Britain will stay in the EU.
e) The government will introduce a motion before the House of Commons RIGHT NOW in favour of this course of action. That motion will also be a confidence motion. If it fails, May will call an immediate general election.
3) May's government is likely to win the support of the Commons. Tory MPs will be scared of losing their seats either to the LibDems or to UKIP.
4) The findings of the latest Ashcroft poll are remarkable: 69% of Leave voters think the vote didn't matter very much; 23% of Remain voters agree. It could be argued that this means they didn't think it would have much effect, but I believe that interpretation would be mistaken and what it really means is that many Leave voters didn't care very much. They thought it was like the Eurovision song contest or something. That would accord with the finding that 70% expected Remain to win. These findings provide a clear case for not invoking A50 without another referendum. If you live in a family of three, and one person really wants X for dinner and the other two don't mind much but would prefer Y, what do you have for dinner?
5) The Chilcot report will be published at 10am on Wednesday. I predict that the withdrawal of the last candidate for the Tory leadership who isn't Theresa May will happen within two hours of that time. She may even call a press conference at 10 or 10.30.
4) No it means Leave voters think the country will prosper outside the EU while Remain voters think we face Armaggeddon
There will not be another referendum; I think it's plausible that we never invoke Art. 50 but the electorate won't buy another vote.
Given UKIP are now going to focus primarily on an anti immigration, anti free movement, anti EEA platform targeting the white working class and lower middle-class they need someone from that background to appeal to them which maybe why the rather poacher Nigel Farage decided to quit. The northern Paul Nuttall comes from a working class background and is probably their best bet to succeed him as leader
Yes he probably is - I recall seeing him on question time and he seemed to perform well on TV as well which never hurts. He'll need to backtrack on those NHS privatisation statements but I don't think that will hold him back much.
If UKIP do become more explicitly labour-targeting, it leaves an opening for the tories to become more centre ground without losing the old traditional tory/kipper votes on the right flank. Would expect Theresa to tack further left, much more in the mould of Merkel than Thatcher. Labour could be seriously screwed, losing votes up north to kippers, no sign of a comeback in Scotland, a resurgent and explicitly pro-eu lib dem party taking youth votes (more so if Corbyn is deposed), and the tories solidifying their grasp on centrist voters.
Steven Woolfe also fits the bill background wise - northern, working class, but has a slightly more impressive professional track record. And he's mixed race.
A woman leading the Tories, someone of mixed race leading UKIP, and a 67 year old middle class white man leading Labour - I'd love that so much, the existential crisis on the left would be wonderful to watch!
Comments
It's only be including Scotland and Northern Ireland (not Ed) that it is just 12.
If it is a success then he was on the wrong side of the argument.
If it is a failure, well it was his decision to hold the referendum.
Genuinely curious.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36701046
More spin from Miliband.
1. Legal status of EU nationals residing in the UK
2. Govt surplus target & corporation tax
No statements. Details to follow
Angela Eagle is climbing Mount Pathetic. She must be near the summit now. Issue your goddamned challenge woman.
Starting to see some more thoughtful analysis of the construction PMIs.
On Cameron: I think he's done a fantastic job for the Conservatives. He'll never please some sections of the party, but we should be grateful to him for putting together the coalition. You only have to look at Europe for examples of how much worse it could have been - but we're often ungrateful for disasters avoided.
On reflection, part of my antipathy and determination to vote Leave was caused by the shock of his tone and demeanour when he finalised the EU offer with Tusk.
Given that I've always admired his sure-footedness when talking to the public (c.f. his Cameron Direct speeches), I'm still at a loss to understand how and why he failed to recognise and correct his mistakes.
That it led to Nadine Dorries shedding tears for a posh Old Etonian Bullingdon boy was the cherry on the parfait.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiO2dzC5zW8
I'd like to think that party was the Tory Party - I have always been, and probably always will be, of the "one nation Tory" mindset.
(See what I did there?)
With divisions emerging on how Tory leadership hopefuls would handle the issue of EU migrants living in the UK if free movement is curtailed, Liam Fox called for "mutuality" between these people and Britons living overseas in the EU.
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120
May needs to be in a head to head with a Brexiter. And then win convincingly.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-leadership-contest-andrea-leadsom-named-worst-treasury-minister-ever-a7118461.html
Boris Johnson's article in the Telegraph is interesting for flagging up the intellectual bankruptcy of his campaign. He complains about the other side offering a binary choice while unable to explain how Leave could be made to work. He now leaves it to them to sort things out. He, along with Michael Gove, were supposed to be intellectual heavyweights against Cameron's empty thinking. Nigel Farage is at least consistent and focused, but has never been near power.
If UKIP do become more explicitly labour-targeting, it leaves an opening for the tories to become more centre ground without losing the old traditional tory/kipper votes on the right flank. Would expect Theresa to tack further left, much more in the mould of Merkel than Thatcher. Labour could be seriously screwed, losing votes up north to kippers, no sign of a comeback in Scotland, a resurgent and explicitly pro-eu lib dem party taking youth votes (more so if Corbyn is deposed), and the tories solidifying their grasp on centrist voters.
She might have been terrible, but the reasons presented don't necessarily support that thesis.
I say this as a Theresa supporter.
I see Vicky Pryce is back on Sky - why? How many other ex-jailbirds do they invite on unless its to talk about prison reform?
The idea that Angela Eagle is a 5/2 chance of winning the leadership tells you how many fools there are in that market..
1) There needs to be a new prime minister fast. When Theresa May wins the first round tomorrow, any other candidates who are reluctant to drop out should have their heads knocked together until they change their minds.
2) May should state as follows.
a) It was a failing of the previous government that it did not plan properly for the contingency of a Leave win.
b) Article 50 may only be invoked by the will of Parliament, because it would effectively repeal the European Communities Act 1972 or at least turn that Act into a dead letter, neither of which may be effected except by will of Parliament. To try to invoke it by royal prerogative would therefore be unlawful, and it would also be a breach of the spirit of both the Sewel convention and the Ponsonby rule.
c) This government will over the course of the next few months draw up a plan for leaving the EU. It cannot of course be sure of achieving its aims, because they depend on negotiation with the other 27 states, but it will do its best, and it will develop a clear policy regarding EFTA, EEA and the movement of people.
d) It will then put its plan to the House of Commons.
i) If the house does not support its plan, Britain will not invoke A50 and will stay in the EU.
ii) If the house supports its plan, the government will then call a binding referendum. If the answer is yes, article 50 will be invoked immediately. If the answer is no, Britain will stay in the EU.
e) The government will introduce a motion before the House of Commons RIGHT NOW in favour of this course of action. That motion will also be a confidence motion. If it fails, May will call an immediate general election.
3) May's government is likely to win the support of the Commons. Tory MPs will be scared of losing their seats either to the LibDems or to UKIP.
4) The findings of the latest Ashcroft poll are remarkable: 69% of Leave voters think the vote didn't matter very much; 23% of Remain voters agree. It could be argued that this means they didn't think it would have much effect, but I believe that interpretation would be mistaken and what it really means is that many Leave voters didn't care very much. They thought it was like the Eurovision song contest or something. That would accord with the finding that 70% expected Remain to win. These findings provide a clear case for not invoking A50 without another referendum. If you live in a family of three, and one person really wants X for dinner and the other two don't mind much but would prefer Y, what do you have for dinner?
5) The Chilcot report will be published at 10am on Wednesday. I predict that the withdrawal of the last candidate for the Tory leadership who isn't Theresa May will happen within two hours of that time. She may even call a press conference at 10 or 10.30.
I seem to remember seeing plenty of that paragon of your party Aitken after his dose of bird.
Mending broken Britain..........Too big an ask to fix for one PM but has he made strides towards it? Hmmm some will say the underclass has got bigger poverty in the U.K has jumped by 200,000 but this more to do with how it is measured as oddly "poverty" falls during a recession but rises during a recovery, he never took the realisic step of redifining poverty. Oh and hasn't really done anything to make the family stronger though I don't know what he can really do considering it's not really the governments business to encourage one type of family over the other.0/10
Reducing net migration to the tens of thousands...........Lol. 1/10
A big society/devolution of power away from the centre.................A tough one to answer as this means different things to different people, Gove has introduced free schools, devolved power away from local authorities to teachers across thousands of academies, the majority of High schools are now academies and even Labour won't get rid of them now, so a success of sorts increasing the big society which never meant just making charities do the job of the state. The prison reforms is going along the same lines with governers given more powers as well as PCC's and NHS trusts etc a real change and devolution of power away from the centre.Too much power is still in central government thought and many people do not feel they have power which resulted in the hugley split vote in the E.U ref. 6/10. (Well done Gove).
Reducing the deficit/rebalancing the economy..........the structual deficit was supposed to be eliminated by now, but the weak eurozone has hampered that effort but progress has been made all be it much slower than hoped. The economy has not rebalanced at all, will it rebalance now the pound has plunged and the eurozone is showing signs of life? We shall see. 5/10
Reforming welfare......................Atos have been a disaster for many people and must be held to account but overall the welfare reforms were needed and well overdue employment is at a record high, universal credit is coming but ofcourse massive changes will have huge bumps (mountains?) in the road, raising the minimum wage and cutting tax credits was right to do although the master stratergist should have got it right in the first place. 7.5/10.
Overall I give Cameron 5/10 he knew the things wrong with Britain and talked a good game but HE NEVER FOLLOWED THROUGH. Fustrating.
A woman leading the Tories, someone of mixed race leading UKIP, and a 67 year old middle class white man leading Labour - I'd love that so much, the existential crisis on the left would be wonderful to watch!
Crabb dropping out gives them far more votes to play with.
If R3 is May, Crabb and Leadsom, most of Gove will have transferred to Leadsom. To then get Crabb into the Final requires May's total to fall very substantially - so she would no longer be the clear winner. Indeed it may be almost impossible if Leadsom can get close to 110 - which she may very well do with all of Gove's transfers.