politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Farage quits and this time he says it’s for real
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Good luck with that ...... I can feel a yawn coming on.kle4 said:0 -
I think Woolfe is the outstanding candidate and the one Labour would fear most. A lot of the attacks would be blunted because of his race and his Northern working class roots and he's also a calm, rational speaker. I'd be disappointed if they chose Nuttall, and Evans though a strong politician will be less effective with a female Tory PM.0
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What was the problem with The Guardian for such folk?peter_from_putney said:
Good luck with that ...... I can feel a yawn coming on.kle4 said:0 -
Nuttall has the accent, but it needs a lot more than that. He would have to sound credible on a bigger state and he has been opposed to one for his entire political life.MaxPB said:
Well Farage specifically said that their future lies in taking votes off Labour. Surely that means he hopes someone like Nuttall will win and the likes of Carsewell will be ejected and the likes od Richard Tyndall will leave of their own volition allowing them to become a socially conservative, economically statist party that can appeal to the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave as well as most of their own voters and some Tories who aren't on board for the modernisation plan started by Dave and George and probably TBC by Theresa.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.eek said:
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.AlastairMeeks said:To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
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We wouldn't be entertaining a referendum if he hadn't lied and dog whistled so disgracefully in the campaign. Okay, he's not the only one, so I'll go for 'one of the people who broke Britain'.CarlottaVance said:
No he won't.Thrak said:Richard_Tyndall said:
No the man who helped save it. I wasn't a big Farage fan (as I am sure I made obvious on here over the last few years) and never voted for him as party leader but he undoubtedly was responsible for carrying the torch for Euroscepticism over the years and it is in great part due to him that we finally get to leave the EU.Thrak said:The man who broke Britain.
He definitely should have stood down after the last election (or rather stayed stood down) and I think he was a divisive character in the Eurosceptic movement but it would be churlish not to admit the huge part he played in achieving something historic and great for Britain.
Yet, after all that, when Scotland goes he will still be the man who broke Britain.
It will be the electorates of the UK and Scotland which mat do that.
Only they have the power.0 -
That ashcroft poll was v close to GE2015 with a slight uptick for UKIP. Hardly sursprising given the hot political topic of the year. Plenty for UKIP still to fight for, particularly if brexit-light is on the cards.0
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That showed in spades how Machiavellian it all is.RobD said:
It was mentioned on here that that happened to Davis in '05.tlg86 said:
I certainly won't be upset if May gets the job, but it would be amusing if May ends up with many fewer MPs than have declared for her.Sandpit said:
Nope, it's a series of secret ballots. Quite a few of her 'supporters' are probably those looking for a good job on the basis that she's the favourite.rottenborough said:May has 110 according to Crick. Is that the winning post as in guaranteed to go into next round? Assuming they all actually vote for her.
The electorate is 330 though, so 110 guarantees someone will be in the top two of that particular ballot.0 -
Sadly I don't think it is quite like the AV/Quasi-AV systems Labour and the Tories useTissue_Price said:Anyhow, amongst all the betting, does anyone know the rules for the UKIP leadership election?
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Farage in the Speccie:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/nigel-farage-ive-resigned-ukip-leader/
I hope the rumours about his health are unfounded - tho he doesn't look a young 52....(if I'd had to guess I'd put him late-50s)0 -
You mean like what happens if Farage changes his mind in six weeks' time and decides to stay on after all ..... that sort of thing?Tissue_Price said:Anyhow, amongst all the betting, does anyone know the rules for the UKIP leadership election?
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I guess so. He now will face a challenge unless he resigns. The media seem to think that he will cling on until Wednesday in order to be able to call Blair a war criminal in Parliament. We'll see if he dares do it outside the safe zone of Commons (from where no legal action on defamation can result). Blair taking Corbyn to court would top the last week of political madness off nicely.Pulpstar said:Is Eagle running meant to be some sort of threat to Corbyn ?
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I honestly don't know what Nuttall stands for and given that I'm unashamedly an anorak surely it means he would be a blank state to the rest of the country.SouthamObserver said:
Nuttall has the accent, but it needs a lot more than that. He would have to sound credible on a bigger state and he has been opposed to one for his entire political life.MaxPB said:
Well Farage specifically said that their future lies in taking votes off Labour. Surely that means he hopes someone like Nuttall will win and the likes of Carsewell will be ejected and the likes od Richard Tyndall will leave of their own volition allowing them to become a socially conservative, economically statist party that can appeal to the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave as well as most of their own voters and some Tories who aren't on board for the modernisation plan started by Dave and George and probably TBC by Theresa.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.eek said:
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.AlastairMeeks said:To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
The other issue facing UKIP is financing. If the Tories deliver article 50 and we leave, UKIP's big backers won't want to pile in on a party that is in favour of a big state and they have no chance of getting union funding.0 -
Wasn't that a Maxwell paper that ended up being edited by Brillopad?kle4 said:0 -
That's a good point. Wasn't the Short Money worth several million, going to be lost if they kicked Carswell out?anotherDave said:
I don't think this was his choice.Paristonda said:As much as I can't stand the guy, he's a counter-example to the "all political careers end in failure" trope. He won his fight, he won't be the one to take the blame if it all goes to hell (that'll be brexit tories), he's the kind of person who will make a comfortable enough living through speeches, columns, and talking head segments. His reputation could only go downhill from here so makes sense to get out now.
He gave an interview to LBC the other day that led to speculation that Mr Carswell was going to be kicked out of UKIP on Monday. Today. It looks like he lost a power struggle.0 -
I got the impression that UKIP membership was mostly right wing tories, with a smattering of libertarians. Are they the sort of people who would back a canddate that appealed to labourites? I can't see it at the moment, I suppose Nuttall would be the one who tried to square that circle though.0
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Leadsom launch up shortly ....0
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It's a good point. How representative of UKIP voters is the UKIP membership?Thrak said:I got the impression that UKIP membership was mostly right wing tories, with a smattering of libertarians. Are they the sort of people who would back a canddate that appealed to labourites? I can't see it at the moment, I suppose Nuttall would be the one who tried to square that circle though.
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A good article by Howard Flight on Brexit and the City:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/howard-flight-the-city-can-flourish-after-brexit-and-the-eea-option-is-the-safest-means-of-ensuring-this-happens.html
I suspect he's being a bit optimistic, but he does a good job of teasing out the various issues.0 -
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I agree. The party will now initially lose a lot of people like me who saw it as a vehicle for getting out of the EU but were opposed to its social conservatism and stand on immigration.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.eek said:
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.AlastairMeeks said:To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
I am sure it will gain new voters from ex-Labour WWC types and of course it is right they have a voice but it is not the party for me. I would have left even without Farage quitting so this doesn't really change anything for me.
As an aside I buy the idea he is not a well man. His body has taken a lot of punishment over the years both accidental and self inflicted. I hope it isn't the case but I wonder if he has found he is rather more ill than hitherto thought.0 -
/..the Moon or to Mars?JackW said:Leadsom launch up shortly ....
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Democrat and Republican conventions in about a fortnight time.
Australian elections on as well
Tory leadership battle
UKIP leadership battle
Brexit
Labour in crisis.
All happening...0 -
Oh god .... Julian Brazier standing behind Leadsom .... at least any stripped blazer is AWOL ....
And Peter Lilley too !!0 -
Paul Nuttal vs Stephen Woolfe is an intriguing tussle.
Nuttal is Northern/trade unionist - Woolfe Southern City man. Two very different target audiences.
If Kippers want to eat into Labour, it's surely Nuttal? Woolfe is very sensible on the TV.0 -
Carswell now favourite across the board. 6/4 from 11/4 with Betfair Sportsbook.
I've backed Woolfe at 5/1,0 -
I've always been quite impressed with Flight. Watched him speak at an election hustings many years ago in Pulborough.Richard_Nabavi said:A good article by Howard Flight on Brexit and the City:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/howard-flight-the-city-can-flourish-after-brexit-and-the-eea-option-is-the-safest-means-of-ensuring-this-happens.html
I suspect he's being a bit optimistic, but he does a good job of teasing out the various issues.0 -
Why launch a newspaper to fight the battle already lost; should they not have done this a year ago, to make the positive case for the EU in preparation for the referendum campaign?AlastairMeeks said:
I can't say that I'll be rushing to subscribe, and I'm probably part of their target demographic.kle4 said:0 -
This kind of thing will not play well in Labour heartlands:MaxPB said:
I honestly don't know what Nuttall stands for and given that I'm unashamedly an anorak surely it means he would be a blank state to the rest of the country.SouthamObserver said:
Nuttall has the accent, but it needs a lot more than that. He would have to sound credible on a bigger state and he has been opposed to one for his entire political life.MaxPB said:
Well Farage specifically said that their future lies in taking votes off Labour. Surely that means he hopes someone like Nuttall will win and the likes of Carsewell will be ejected and the likes od Richard Tyndall will leave of their own volition allowing them to become a socially conservative, economically statist party that can appeal to the 37% of Labour voters who voted Leave as well as most of their own voters and some Tories who aren't on board for the modernisation plan started by Dave and George and probably TBC by Theresa.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.eek said:
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.AlastairMeeks said:To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
The other issue facing UKIP is financing. If the Tories deliver article 50 and we leave, UKIP's big backers won't want to pile in on a party that is in favour of a big state and they have no chance of getting union funding.
https://tompride.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/ukip-nhs.png
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Guido.JackW said:Leadsom launch up shortly ....
"At #AndreaLeadsom4Leader launch I spy Lord Bell, former Thatcher advisor, "Are you advising Leadsom?" "Yes.""
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Has Stark_Dawning realised he lost?Richard_Tyndall said:
And there speaks the bilious voice of defeat. I am so glad you lost.Stark_Dawning said:So Farage has gone? Send no flowers. Like Enoch before him, he'll be remembered as a politician who tried to drag bigotry into the mainstream, by feigning compassion for the uneducated and the resentful. Ironically, it was his behaviour during the campaign for the very referendum he'd dedicated his life to secure that left his reputation in tatters.
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Get a grip man ..... sorry, I'll rephrase that.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Leadsom live now0
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Of which party?PlatoSaid said:YouGov'd re Farage and Tory leadership - asked if I was a member.
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Both favourites for leadership in Tory and UKIP races are ex-Wimbledon (Tory) Councillors. Why are the odds?0
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"Alain Juppé, the frontrunner in the race for the French centre-right presidential nomination, has reached out to a post-Brexit Britain, suggesting that restrictions on free movement of people should be up for negotiation "
https://next.ft.com/content/cc4028fa-411f-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d0 -
I meant 'what are the odds?'0
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And Chilcott to come....Pulpstar said:Democrat and Republican conventions in about a fortnight time.
Australian elections on as well
Tory leadership battle
UKIP leadership battle
Brexit
Labour in crisis.
All happening...0 -
That's a good observation - we need to understand the process and electorate for choosing a new leader. They need to decide if the stereotypical old man in a blazer is the right person to win the disaffected WWC vote, which is surely now UKIP's target in 2020.Thrak said:I got the impression that UKIP membership was mostly right wing tories, with a smattering of libertarians. Are they the sort of people who would back a canddate that appealed to labourites? I can't see it at the moment, I suppose Nuttall would be the one who tried to square that circle though.
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LOL Tories. I won't pay £3 again. I'd never get such value for money again.Tissue_Price said:0 -
To seek out new worlds and new civilizations .... To go where no man has gone before ....SquareRoot said:
/..the Moon or to Mars?JackW said:Leadsom launch up shortly ....
Anne Widdecombe !! .......
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I would say Woolfe should be favourite assuming UKIP are going after Labour votes in the North.Suzanne Evans would have walked it a year ago but is too close to Carswell and too flaky in my opinion.The big proviso is whether UKIP will exist in its current form and whether bets will be honoured if not..Follow what Aaron Banks says and you will know what is going on and he flagged up Nigel would not want to lead the new party he is contemplating forming.0
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Dearie, dearie me.Stark_Dawning said:So Farage has gone? Send no flowers. Like Enoch before him, he'll be remembered as a politician who tried to drag bigotry into the mainstream, by feigning compassion for the uneducated and the resentful. Ironically, it was his behaviour during the campaign for the very referendum he'd dedicated his life to secure that left his reputation in tatters.
Nigel's political life has ended in triumph.0 -
@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.0
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I wonder if she has her tax return at the ready for publication, as she foolishly promised Andrew Marr yesterday.JackW said:Leadsom launch up shortly ....
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Assuming we do this whole Brexit thing, what is the point of UKIP existing any more? They will go out of business won't they?0
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Leadsom is definitely pitching for the zealot vote0
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He is a smoker and drinker. The statistics are against him - but he has beaten the odds on leaving the EU.CarlottaVance said:Farage in the Speccie:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/nigel-farage-ive-resigned-ukip-leader/
I hope the rumours about his health are unfounded - tho he doesn't look a young 52....(if I'd had to guess I'd put him late-50s)0 -
Leadsom standing in front of a map of distant islands .... where Gove will become High Commissioner - Tristan Da Cunha or South Georgia ??0
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There's no other reason to vote for her, so that's probably sensible.Scott_P said:Leadsom is definitely pitching for the zealot vote
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On a completely different note, I have been travelling on business for the last few weeks and the computer I had (Apple) and the lack of broadband meant my only fix of politics was a few minutes a day from this wonderful site. I couldn't comment (computer said no). Anyway, I followed the site on referendum night. Alone in a crazy country, with a bodyguard outside the room, no contact with the outside world except PB.com. I just got connected as the Sunderland result came in. The word...'BOOM' was uttered by one of you. As a Leaver, I was almost in tears. Thank you, PB, thank you Mike and TSE and the team, thank you commenters, you have made me very happy. (Will donate, promise).0
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In Gloucestershire two of the three UKIP County Councillors obviously agree as they have joined the Tories.
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Mr. Putney, I think you mean that IDS needs to get a hold of himself.0
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Nice pitch from Leadsom, some specifics, dedicated Cabinet post, blue collar pitch. Very One Nation.
Direct reference to Sunderland. Bigger housing budget, dedicated minister. Prioritise trade deals.
Guaranteed residency for EUers already here.0 -
Mrs IDS must have had one hell of a honeyman from the quiet man .... obviously not a groaner !! ...AlastairMeeks said:
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That's a very succinct summary of where we are and where we need to be. Flight would be a good choice for the Brexit team.Richard_Nabavi said:A good article by Howard Flight on Brexit and the City:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/howard-flight-the-city-can-flourish-after-brexit-and-the-eea-option-is-the-safest-means-of-ensuring-this-happens.html
I suspect he's being a bit optimistic, but he does a good job of teasing out the various issues.0 -
Mr. Dave, welcome to pb.com 0
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BF now have a book on 1st Tory runner out:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1254392720 -
Don't we have a Housing Minister?!PlatoSaid said:Nice pitch from Leadsom, some specifics, dedicated Cabinet post, blue collar pitch. Very One Nation.
Direct reference to Sunderland. Bigger housing budget, dedicated minister. Prioritise trade deals.
Guaranteed residency for EUers already here.-1 -
I took Fox at 1.5ish beforerottenborough said:BF now have a book on 1st Tory runner out:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125439272
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AlastairMeeks said:
If it is positively European, will their first issue be reporting Jean-Claude Juncker's resignation?0 -
Leadsom - "conception to two years old ..."
Youth vote pitch.0 -
Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.0 -
https://twitter.com/CommonsHomeAffs/status/749909400383590400
Which Terminological inexactitudes will Corbyn offer today?0 -
The mere fact she wont be sending home EU nationals shows that she'll capture less of the zealot vote than May. Perhaps she's the best candidate for those who believe when people vote to leave the EU we should actually leave the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's no other reason to vote for her, so that's probably sensible.Scott_P said:Leadsom is definitely pitching for the zealot vote
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It is a good summary and well worth reading for that reason, but, on the other hand, his suggestion that Nigel Farage should be on the negotiating team is barking mad. Putting someone on the team whose entire career has largely comprised of childish insults aimed at the people you are negotiating with is not calculated to smooth over difficult points.Sandpit said:
That's a very succinct summary of where we are and where we need to be. Flight would be a good choice for the Brexit team.Richard_Nabavi said:A good article by Howard Flight on Brexit and the City:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/howard-flight-the-city-can-flourish-after-brexit-and-the-eea-option-is-the-safest-means-of-ensuring-this-happens.html
I suspect he's being a bit optimistic, but he does a good job of teasing out the various issues.0 -
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Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.
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Sam Coates says the Con Leadership vote was pushed back because Mr Cameron wants to go to the G20 meeting as PM.
twitter.com/SkyMurnaghan/status/7495570776479088640 -
Why is Andrea Leadsom launching her campaign in a broom cupboard?0
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Not as good as Rightmove. These sites have been great in breaking the stranglehold of estate agents though, now one agent is as visible as another.David_Evershed said:Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.0 -
Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.David_Evershed said:Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.0 -
And if the EU won't guarantee residency to UK nationals?PlatoSaid said:
Guaranteed residency for EUers already here.
Great start to negotiations!
Amateur hour......
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Did we catch a glimpse of David Davis clapping away .. Not sure.0
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Toby young suggested Gisela Stuart should go for itParistonda said:Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.
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What do our PB legal experts think?David_Evershed said:Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.
Hard to imagine MPs would vote against it, so it just seems like an enormous waste of time and money (since it'd probably be challenged all the way to the supreme court)0 -
Mr. 662, endorsements from Edd the Duck and Gordon the Gopher?0
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Mr. Observer, there are a lot of people who the main parties seem to want to ignore and who are unrepresented at local and national level. That is a gap in the market that UKIP could fill. They would need to change their focus but now their original purpose has been achieved they have to do that or die.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.eek said:
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.AlastairMeeks said:To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
I would like them, or if not them then someone, to become the voice of the working poor, the council estate dwellers, those left behind, the people that Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a big rat's arse for. However, as someone has said up-thread, money will probably be the death of UKIP.0 -
Or she is just utterly deluded. Where will the billions for NHS come from, as our economy tanks?Paristonda said:
Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.
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Austria rerun too.0
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Well it would be an interesting first few days for a new PM otherwise!anotherDave said:Sam Coates says the Con Leadership vote was pushed back because Mr Cameron wants to go to the G20 meeting as PM.
twitter.com/SkyMurnaghan/status/7495570776479088640 -
@Morkins: Here are the rules for the UKIP leadership contest. @BBCNewsnight @UKIP https://t.co/IaT4jzncEi0
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She is talking 'Vapid bilge'.rottenborough said:
Or she is just utterly deluded. Where will the billions for NHS come from, as our economy tanks?Paristonda said:
Sounds more like Leadsom is throwing her hat into the ring for UKIP leader.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: Leadsom: result is final, must be respected, and I will respect it. UK will leave EU, freedom of movement will end, billions more for NHS.
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Scotland?DaveDave said:Anyway, I followed the site on referendum night. Alone in a crazy country, with a bodyguard outside the room....
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The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.not_on_fire said:
Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.David_Evershed said:Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.0 -
Leadsom references Bill Cash .... 0
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Nuttall does have the NHS issue, but I don't think most of the working class have political views as ideological as wanting a "big state". They certainly support being tough on welfare etc.0
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Twice in six months.. you do spoil usTheScreamingEagles said:
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Yes, she has to try and win over people who voted Leave but listed immigration as a secondary concern as well as those for whom it was the primary concern.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's no other reason to vote for her, so that's probably sensible.Scott_P said:Leadsom is definitely pitching for the zealot vote
In my experience if I were to break down the members who voted Leave that I know, around a third voted on the basis of immigration alone, a third voted Leave on the basis of sovereignty but have concerns about immigration and the rest were not concerned with immigration and voted on the basis of sovereignty and control over our laws.
I think that puts her potential vote share at 40-45% of members assuming she can convert every single person who has any kind of concern about immigration to her cause. Gove possibly has the highest cap on his potential vote of the leavers but I'm not sure he will make the final two after Project Brutus.0 -
Carswell has gone down in my estimation for that. I fundamentally disagreed with Farage and believe he has done immense damage to the reputation of the UK. But I suspect he is sincere in his beliefs and he has achieved his objectives. That is quite rare in political careers. It is right that he now bows out.Sandpit said:0 -
She's dealing with tomatoes very well. Big laugh in the room.0
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There is a very big gap in the market. But I am not sure UKIP has the leaders or members with the political inclinations to fill it. Nuttall has a Scouse accent, but has advocated abolishing the NHS. In Labour heartland constituencies one of those things is going to be a lot more important than the other.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Observer, there are a lot of people who the main parties seem to want to ignore and who are unrepresented at local and national level. That is a gap in the market that UKIP could fill. They would need to change their focus but now their original purpose has been achieved they have to do that or die.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm. Not sure how that works to be honest. Without us being in the EU what does UKIP stand for? It could shift sharply left on economics, while remaining socially conservative and even more anti-immigration, but which leadership candidate could do that credibly? If immigration does fall now, the anti-immigration rhetoric will need to get ever louder to be heard. Should that happen it would be tricky to keep UKIP in the mainstream.eek said:
Don't worry with Farage gone UKIP are perfectly positioned to do an SNP to Labour in the Midlands and the North...TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't say that. That's a truly depressing thought.AlastairMeeks said:To join the Conservative party under Andrea Leadsom's leadership?
Should be remembered Farage vowed to destroy the Tory party a few years ago.
I would like them, or if not them then someone, to become the voice of the working poor, the council estate dwellers, those left behind, the people that Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a big rat's arse for. However, as someone has said up-thread, money will probably be the death of UKIP.
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Only if you believe an advisory referendum trumps our 800 year old, democratically elected parliamentRobD said:
The only reason they are doing this is in the hopes that MP would vote against article 50 being invoked. That is pretty anti-democratic since there was just a vote on whether we should leave or not.not_on_fire said:
Anti-democratic? Surely it's Taking Back Control for our sovereign Parliament.David_Evershed said:Guido pointing out that the Zoopla on line estate agent is one of the companies behind the attempt to frustrate Brexit by seeking any triggering of Article 50 has to be voted on by MPs - and presumably opposed by the Remainers.
Zoopla against the people and democracy. Not a great business idea.0 -
Only one has joined the Conservatives , the other has gone Independent . Why the Conservatives should have accepted Alan Preest is a bit of a mystery as they had previously expelled him for theft . .madmacs said:In Gloucestershire two of the three UKIP County Councillors obviously agree as they have joined the Tories.
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