politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It would be a mistake for May to become leader & PM without

AndyJS said:

Does he mean if she's elected without a membership vote?

Probably. But he still gets to vote for someone else.

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

Like I said,Tory civil war.

Impossible. Only Remainers are acting stupidly and undemocratically...

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I'm still goggling at the inflation and base rate statistics for the 80s. How on earth did we all survive? It's very hard not to come over all Four Yorkshiremen. I'm strangely chuffed with myself for making it through such a hellish decade.

Hmm, so Leadsome's views on leaving the EU have changed in the last three years? Well, my own views on the matter have also shifted in that time, so I cannot condemn her for that, but will it hurt her? I'm uncertain.

Discussing with some Leavers more die hard than myself, and much more fixated on immigration - stop it completely and send those here back was the general position - there are definitely plenty on the lookout for brexit traitors. Gove was mud in their eyes - mud if he was lucky - and presumed to be secretly a remainer the whole time planted by Cameron, but they were sure the only way to really leave and leave the right way would be for a Leaver to be leader. So either Leadsome as the strongest Leaver in the race gets a pass for potential brexit treachery, or I guess they'll be hoping Fox gets it.

Who is the senior Tory most likely to deliver on a non-EU points system? Probably Gove, but if May has an ounce of sense she'll not give him a cabinet job - maybe a policy chief behind the scenes (and which he'd be great for). Maude?

kle4 said:

What are his official grounds then? I presume he didn't just admit he wants to vote for someone else.

It's the story on the front of the Times.

Scott_P said:

Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

Unsurprisingly, cash makes himself the centre of a story. He really needs to be forced to compete in a marginal seat to wake him up to the realities of life.

John_M said:

oxfordsimon said:

Corbyn appears to be using the Mirror to claim he is offering a peace plan with Labour.

Doesn't sound like he really means it:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-offer-rebellious-mps-8335768

Yes, it's throwing them a token bone or two but otherwise come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. Didn't feel armistice-y at all.

It won't work. It is not his policy platform or the decision-making process that concerns the majority of the Labout party. It is the man himself.

Has May not already said she would appoint a Minister for Brexit, who would be a senior Leaver?

That should keep everyone happy.

A Brexiteer puts the boot in in Brussels, and when it all goes tits up the Remainers say I told you so.

kle4 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

Like I said,Tory civil war.

For a couple of days there I thought they might actually avoid one, that I'd have to take back my mockery of those who said in the event of Leave at least all would be hunky dory. But no. The arch brexiteers will be as difficult as ever, causing trouble is what they do, and we'll have to see what the arch remainers do if May doesn't get it.

I don't think the Tory civil war will be bloody or long lasting. The Brexiters have won, they just don't seem to have realised it yet. We'll leave. We'll get a non-EU points system and a benefits crackdown. We'll get non-EU trade deals with the Anglosphere at the front of the queue. In 6 months to a year's time we'll be laughing and wondering why there was such a fuss. And possibly watching which mega relief as the Euro starts to go under.

SeanT said:

As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

Pfffffffffff.

She was funny.

Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

Don't worry. Our trashed reputation and s recession will bring the number right down. Maybe we'll be back to pre EU brain drains.Genius.

SeanT said:

KentRising said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get it down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

I think it might come to that.

I think the first, more realistic target would be 200,000 net - still down significantly on 350,000+.

That leaves space for the 100,000 Highly Skilled visas at the current rate, and 100,000 for others. It will be a slow old reversal of 15 years of mass immigration....

Oh, and counting people in would handy.

Patrick said:

kle4 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

Like I said,Tory civil war.

For a couple of days there I thought they might actually avoid one, that I'd have to take back my mockery of those who said in the event of Leave at least all would be hunky dory. But no. The arch brexiteers will be as difficult as ever, causing trouble is what they do, and we'll have to see what the arch remainers do if May doesn't get it.

I don't think the Tory civil war will be bloody or long lasting.

The first perhaps not, the latter I'm not so sure about. At the least it will be persistently annoying for the new PM since they suffer the same problem as Cameron in that very small rebellions can cause big problems, unless they risk a GE.

Danny565 said:

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

Seems the only way to break the deadlock - a candidate suitable to Corbynistas needs to go to the membership or Corbyn won't step down, and he needs to trust they will indeed nominate such a person.

Scott_P said:

Has May not already said she would appoint a Minister for Brexit, who would be a senior Leaver?

That should keep everyone happy.

A Brexiteer puts the boot in in Brussels, and when it all goes tits up the Remainers say I told you so.

In that scenario brexiters would say they were hamstrung by a Leader and cabinet who weren't true to the cause. We're already hearing people worried that will happen, either preventing Brexit entirely or limiting it from what the most extreme want it to be.

oxfordsimon said:

Danny565 said:

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.

Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.

kle4 said:

oxfordsimon said:

Danny565 said:

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.

Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.

Ed Miliband. Trust me on this.

dr_spyn said:

Is it let me condemn Blair for Iraq?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/749368292838629376

Or just trying to play for time?

Of course it is. And it will fail.

If Labour can't get rid of him and quickly, there won't be a Labour Party to save. There will be Momentum and some new grouping of Labour realists.

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

Pfffffffffff.

She was funny.

Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.

At times the Royle Family was painfully close to home.

wasd said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

Pfffffffffff.

She was funny.

Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.

At times the Royle Family was painfully close to home.

Absolutely. I have a cousin who thinks making beans on toast is cooking.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/749344312903790592

kle4 said:

oxfordsimon said:

Danny565 said:

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.

Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.

They should look to appoint a Howard figure. Someone to calm things and allow a new generation to develop. Proper succession planning - just the sort of thing that the Blair/Brown years failed to achieve.

I know Alan Johnson keeps saying he doesn't want the job - but as a caretaker leader until 2020, he could steady things and allow Jarvis and others to come through

KentRising said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.

Here's an odd idea.

Train our own people?

That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.

Danny565 said:

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

because they are absolutely guaranteed to keep their word once he does...

AlastairMeeks said:

kle4 said:

oxfordsimon said:

Danny565 said:

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.

Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.

Ed Miliband. Trust me on this.

He's not even in the BF list, unless I am missing something. I can't even bet on this idea.

BenedictWhite said:

KentRising said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.

Here's an odd idea.

Train our own people?

That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.

Yeah, I'm with you on that, but that's for the longer term. That requires a massive cultural change in our society, so that more people want to become nurses etc than aspiring to work in nail bars.

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

Pfffffffffff.

She was funny.

Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.

Caroline Ahern was sublime. Mrs merkel and the Royle Family- I am one of those saddos that can remember the script. I sometimes try and go through all the characters names in the Royles at night to help with my insomnia.

Quite what Jim and the Royle Family would have made of Brexit? I'm sure that was in Caroline Ahern's head, and she would have been as uncompromising and funny as ever.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.

When was the last time any government put in genuine policies to curb immigration (explicitly to reduce numbers, not just give more control like the points system), I don't think it's ever happened?

deleted

Andrea Leadsom interview: Thatcher, God, and why I should be Prime Minister

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/02/andrea-leadsom-interview-thatcher-god-and-why-i-should-be-prime/

BenedictWhite said:

Here's an odd idea.

Train our own people?

That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.

A good idea.

But one that is unworkable when the education system in England is in tatters. Government has abandoned any influence óver Higher Education, it cannot dictate to Universities what courses to teach.

The learning being taught today, to provide the skills for the future is instead decided by a market place where 18 years olds are the consumers trying to make very complicate decisions with very limited information,.

Moreover, the cost of that decision is not real to them as it is provided by a guaranteed loan and not their own hard earned cash.

KentRising said:

BenedictWhite said:

KentRising said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree.

If non-EU immigration is running at

Here's an odd idea.

Train our own people?

That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.

Yeah, I'm with you on that, but that's for the longer term. That requires a massive cultural change in our society, so that more people want to become nurses etc than aspiring to work in nail bars.

There are plenty of applicants for both Medical and Nursing schools, though calibre varies. Mostly the problem is the number of training places and retention. The removal of NHS bursaries and imposition of tuition fees for nurses is not going to help. Both nurses and doctors have terrible retention figures. Barely half are working in the NHS 2 years post qualification.

I have checked with the GMC, EEA qualifications are automatically recognised, so if we go that route our Greek doctors and Portuguese nurses can keep coming if we stay in the EEA.

I cannot help but wonder (along with many Leavers) what the point was though!

volcanopete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/749355459983867904

Wow, that table makes the odds-on bet from Ladbrokes that May and Leadsom would be the winning duo look decidedly dodgy.
Those of a nervous disposition, including yours truly, might like to cover their position by also having a piece of May & Gove at 5/1.
DYOR.

foxinsoxuk said:

BenedictWhite said:

KentRising said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.

Here's an odd idea.

Train our own people?

That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.

Reinstating passport checks at departure is the bare minimum. It is impossible to identify overstayers without.

Exactly. Nor is it possible to guarantee that wanted criminals are leaving either. This failure is the home secretaries fault... What's her name?

tyson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

Pfffffffffff.

She was funny.

Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.

Caroline Ahern was sublime. Mrs merkel and the Royle Family- I am one of those saddos that can remember the script. I sometimes try and go through all the characters names in the Royles at night to help with my insomnia.

Quite what Jim and the Royle Family would have made of Brexit? I'm sure that was in Caroline Ahern's head, and she would have been as uncompromising and funny as ever.

Yes very sad to see her go. The Royle family was very well observed. All of the characters were likeable, and not all based upon cheap stereotypes and catchphrases.

rottenborough said:

notme said:

oxfordsimon said:

Danny565 said:

Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.

Isn't Clive Lewis from exactly the same poisonous well that Corbyn comes from? He does the aggressive direct shouty action stuff, classic Momentum mentality.

Utterly unelectable as PM in a GE. But, hey, why stop the fun now? Pass the popcorn.

Whereas those MPs who just threw all their chips in with the "Remain" campaign have shown just how electable they are!

Leadsom's God-bothering ways would make me very, very wary of her.

All faiths should be kept out of politics as far as I am concerned.

BenedictWhite said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.

Did that happen during the 2008 crash?

No but that's because all the european countries went into a recession too. It's the differential that matters.

RodCrosby said:

Why the Eagle is really a Duck.
'Her proposed challenge threatens to create a chasm between her and party members. The Wallasey vote last week was 40 in favour of Corbyn, none against, and four abstentions. The judgement of Liam Hertzenberg, one of the members, is uncompromising. “I do not think she has the support of the CLP,” he said. “I hope she will be deselected.”'
https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2016/jul/02/angela-eagle-anger-rises-in-her-wallasey-constituency-corbyn-labour?CMP=share_btn_tw
2500 comments...
Massive march today in Liverpool for Corbyn.

Momentum won't be stopped like someone as weak as Eagle.

Labour can't survive if Momentum is allowed to continue to exert influence over the Party.

Either a purge of Soviet-scale has to take place or a split will happen.

All this talk of net migration seems to be forgetting the "net" bit. Even if a fall in immigration was achieved (which I don't think it can) net migration could still increase due to an even bigger fall in emigration. Unless we are going to have soviet style exit controls we are never going to have full control of the net migration numbers.

Tissue_Price said:

peter_from_putney said:

volcanopete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/749355459983867904

Wow, that table makes the odds-on bet from Ladbrokes that May and Leadsom would be the winning duo look decidedly dodgy.
Those of a nervous disposition, including yours truly, might like to cover their position by also having a piece of May & Gove at 5/1.
DYOR.

They appear to be polling the public as opposed to Tory MPs.

The public barely know who Andrea Leadsome is. Tory MPs will know her very well.

not_on_fire said:

All this talk of net migration seems to be forgetting the "net" bit. Even if a fall in immigration was achieved (which I don't think it can) net migration could still increase due to an even bigger fall in emigration. Unless we are going to have soviet style exit controls we are never going to have full control of the net migration numbers.

We could refuse to let people back in if they've been contaminated by spending time abroad.

Pauly said:

BenedictWhite said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

BenedictWhite said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.

I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

EEA, probably.

But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.

We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.

Did that happen during the 2008 crash?

No but that's because all the european countries went into a recession too. It's the differential that matters.

Oh right. Unemployment low in the EU at the moment?

rcs1000 said:

BenedictWhite said:

rcs1000 said:

We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.

Did that happen during the 2008 crash?

I think the best (potential) comparison for the UK is Spain during the Eurozone crisis. In the decade to 2008, Spain was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Employment went from 13m to almost 21m. But it was an economy based on (a) debt, (b) a massive current account deficit, (c) a housing boom, and (d) an influx of immigrants.

Now, we are shielded somewhat due to having a floating exchange rate (although Spain has a stronger manufacturing economy than we do, and we have much worse government and personal debt than Spain did), but when the housing market turned down, and unemployment started to rise, net migration when from a very big positive number to a large negative one.

That is actually one of the big problems with the way the EU and free movement works.

People leaving on mass probably made everything worse, leading to a vast over supply of housing.

AlastairMeeks said:

It's reassuring to find out that Andrea Leadsom has been so cynical. It's the first thing I've heard about her that gives me comfort.

"And then I looked at the EU more closely, and I reached the conclusion that Britain would be stronger, safer, better off outside the grip of an institution which acted so bureaucratically and inflexibly."

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

Pfffffffffff.

She was funny.

Too much alcohol (and ciggies) You need to start taking care of yourself maybe?

Didn't stop Winston Churchill.

The majority of us are reliant on the genetic makeup bestowed on us by our families. Despite, all the warnings and 5 a day, and a thimble of wine, your family genes decide pretty much how long you'll live and how you'll die.