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  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AndyJS said:

    Does he mean if she's elected without a membership vote?

    Probably. But he still gets to vote for someone else.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dr_spyn said:
    Muller (Bayern Munich) missed one too.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,062

    Scott_P said:

    Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

    Like I said,Tory civil war.
    Impossible. Only Remainers are acting stupidly and undemocratically...
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,999
    Patrick said:

    Maybe May should appoint a B'Stard or a Tebbit as Home Sec and give them a firm brief to get the job done. I wonder who that is. And I also want her to give a big role to Hannan.

    Would Hannan accept a Lordship? Does Cameron get a resignation honours list?
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    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Corbyn appears to be using the Mirror to claim he is offering a peace plan with Labour.

    Doesn't sound like he really means it:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-offer-rebellious-mps-8335768
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    I'm still goggling at the inflation and base rate statistics for the 80s. How on earth did we all survive? It's very hard not to come over all Four Yorkshiremen. I'm strangely chuffed with myself for making it through such a hellish decade.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,999
    Making Howard home secretary again would be a huge fillip to the right who might feel aggrieved after a May coronation.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Hmm, so Leadsome's views on leaving the EU have changed in the last three years? Well, my own views on the matter have also shifted in that time, so I cannot condemn her for that, but will it hurt her? I'm uncertain.

    Discussing with some Leavers more die hard than myself, and much more fixated on immigration - stop it completely and send those here back was the general position - there are definitely plenty on the lookout for brexit traitors. Gove was mud in their eyes - mud if he was lucky - and presumed to be secretly a remainer the whole time planted by Cameron, but they were sure the only way to really leave and leave the right way would be for a Leaver to be leader. So either Leadsome as the strongest Leaver in the race gets a pass for potential brexit treachery, or I guess they'll be hoping Fox gets it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    What are the grounds?

    He wants to vote for someone else...
    What are his official grounds then? I presume he didn't just admit he wants to vote for someone else.
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    Who is the senior Tory most likely to deliver on a non-EU points system? Probably Gove, but if May has an ounce of sense she'll not give him a cabinet job - maybe a policy chief behind the scenes (and which he'd be great for). Maude?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Corbyn appears to be using the Mirror to claim he is offering a peace plan with Labour.

    Doesn't sound like he really means it:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-offer-rebellious-mps-8335768

    Yes, it's throwing them a token bone or two but otherwise come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. Didn't feel armistice-y at all.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    What are his official grounds then? I presume he didn't just admit he wants to vote for someone else.

    It's the story on the front of the Times.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301

    Scott_P said:

    Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

    Like I said,Tory civil war.
    For a couple of days there I thought they might actually avoid one, that I'd have to take back my mockery of those who said in the event of Leave at least all would be hunky dory. But no. The arch brexiteers will be as difficult as ever, causing trouble is what they do, and we'll have to see what the arch remainers do if May doesn't get it.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Scott_P said:

    Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

    Unsurprisingly, cash makes himself the centre of a story. He really needs to be forced to compete in a marginal seat to wake him up to the realities of life.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    edited July 2016
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

    The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    John_M said:

    Corbyn appears to be using the Mirror to claim he is offering a peace plan with Labour.

    Doesn't sound like he really means it:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-offer-rebellious-mps-8335768

    Yes, it's throwing them a token bone or two but otherwise come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. Didn't feel armistice-y at all.
    It won't work. It is not his policy platform or the decision-making process that concerns the majority of the Labout party. It is the man himself.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,488
    Patrick said:

    Maybe May should appoint a B'Stard or a Tebbit as Home Sec and give them a firm brief to get the job done. I wonder who that is. And I also want her to give a big role to Hannan.

    Yep. What we need is someone super-keen to show just how shit the previous Home Secretary was at doing the job.

    Oh.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Has May not already said she would appoint a Minister for Brexit, who would be a senior Leaver?

    That should keep everyone happy.

    A Brexiteer puts the boot in in Brussels, and when it all goes tits up the Remainers say I told you so.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    I fear what will happen if that is simply unattainable. I've increasingly been of the view that regardless of any economic arguments, or whether they is even room for the level of immigration we have, in social terms it is clear a great many people just have had enough. We have too much immigration, not necessarily on any economic terms (though people may argue that is also the case) but because general society thinks there is too much.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

    Like I said,Tory civil war.
    For a couple of days there I thought they might actually avoid one, that I'd have to take back my mockery of those who said in the event of Leave at least all would be hunky dory. But no. The arch brexiteers will be as difficult as ever, causing trouble is what they do, and we'll have to see what the arch remainers do if May doesn't get it.
    I don't think the Tory civil war will be bloody or long lasting. The Brexiters have won, they just don't seem to have realised it yet. We'll leave. We'll get a non-EU points system and a benefits crackdown. We'll get non-EU trade deals with the Anglosphere at the front of the queue. In 6 months to a year's time we'll be laughing and wondering why there was such a fuss. And possibly watching which mega relief as the Euro starts to go under.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Scott_P said:

    Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

    Like I said,Tory civil war.
    Impossible. Only Remainers are acting stupidly and undemocratically...
    Just came to me,no civil war,when the referendum kicked off,wasn't the rumour that Theresa was going to come out for leave ;-)

    Cash should remember May was always a secret leaver ;-)
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,488
    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    But she was born with cancer of the retina. Maybe she had a good innings, considering.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,999

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    Yup - and, like all the best comedy, funny because it was so believable.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,073
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    Don't worry. Our trashed reputation and s recession will bring the number right down. Maybe we'll be back to pre EU brain drains.Genius.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,292
    edited July 2016
    Is it let me condemn Blair for Iraq?
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/749368292838629376

    Or just trying to play for time?
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get it down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.
    I think it might come to that.
    I think the first, more realistic target would be 200,000 net - still down significantly on 350,000+.

    That leaves space for the 100,000 Highly Skilled visas at the current rate, and 100,000 for others. It will be a slow old reversal of 15 years of mass immigration....

    Oh, and counting people in would handy.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Excellent.Nice ante post voucher looks likely to be landed.The trend is always in the long-term market for Tory favourite, lay the 1st 2 in the market,which,I,an others,have been banging on about for years.Laying Osborne and Johnson has yielded a good return-Osborne was 5-4 at one stage.May was always going to be the safe option.Back the 1st 2 in the market in the Supreme,1st race at Cheltenham.Market trends analysis applies just the same.
    Another one that's always interesting at this time of year is back Willie Haggis trained horses blind in July and August.Racehorse trainers are creatures of habit.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Patrick said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bill Cash threatening judicial review if May becomes leader

    Like I said,Tory civil war.
    For a couple of days there I thought they might actually avoid one, that I'd have to take back my mockery of those who said in the event of Leave at least all would be hunky dory. But no. The arch brexiteers will be as difficult as ever, causing trouble is what they do, and we'll have to see what the arch remainers do if May doesn't get it.
    I don't think the Tory civil war will be bloody or long lasting.
    The first perhaps not, the latter I'm not so sure about. At the least it will be persistently annoying for the new PM since they suffer the same problem as Cameron in that very small rebellions can cause big problems, unless they risk a GE.
    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Seems the only way to break the deadlock - a candidate suitable to Corbynistas needs to go to the membership or Corbyn won't step down, and he needs to trust they will indeed nominate such a person.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Scott_P said:

    Has May not already said she would appoint a Minister for Brexit, who would be a senior Leaver?

    That should keep everyone happy.

    A Brexiteer puts the boot in in Brussels, and when it all goes tits up the Remainers say I told you so.

    In that scenario brexiters would say they were hamstrung by a Leader and cabinet who weren't true to the cause. We're already hearing people worried that will happen, either preventing Brexit entirely or limiting it from what the most extreme want it to be.
  • Options
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/02/outrage-as-war-crimes-prosecutors-say-tony-blair-will-not-be-inv/

    Labour is going to have a fun week - even more than usual! Soldiers might be prosecuted but Blair will be spared. If May can find a way to get the CPS to reverse that and get his Toniness and Alastair Campbell in the dock she'd win a 650 seat majority!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,653
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get it down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.
    I think it might come to that.
    You have to remember there is a large difference between gross and net. A lot of Tier 1 people are investment bankers, lawyers, consultants, etc., who are being rotated through London. So, someone who's headed up (say) investment research in New York is told to spend three years sorting out London. Tier 1 visa... three years work... and then home. That's why there are 500,000 visas for non-EU citizens, and 155,000 net coming here.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.
    Ed Miliband. Trust me on this.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,270
    dr_spyn said:

    Is it let me condemn Blair for Iraq?
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/749368292838629376

    Or just trying to play for time?

    Reach out and offer what precisely?

  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    dr_spyn said:

    Is it let me condemn Blair for Iraq?
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/749368292838629376

    Or just trying to play for time?

    Of course it is. And it will fail.

    If Labour can't get rid of him and quickly, there won't be a Labour Party to save. There will be Momentum and some new grouping of Labour realists.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,653
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.
  • Options
    wasdwasd Posts: 276

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    At times the Royle Family was painfully close to home.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.
    Ed Miliband. Trust me on this.
    No ulterior motives there, I hope.

    Still, he couldn't be that bad. *recalls Edstone* You know, right now I would welcome that.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,999
    wasd said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    At times the Royle Family was painfully close to home.
    Absolutely. I have a cousin who thinks making beans on toast is cooking.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited July 2016
    RNC statement:-
    'Hillary Clinton has just taken the unprecedented step of becoming the first major party presidential candidate to be interviewed by the FBI as part of a criminal investigation surrounding her reckless conduct. That the FBI wanted her for questioning reinforces her central role in deliberately creating a culture which put her own political ambitions above State Department rules and jeopardized our national security. In over 2,000 emails, Clinton’s decision exposed classified information, including 22 that included top secret intelligence, just so she could skirt transparency laws in order to hide her shady dealings as Secretary of State. When you factor in Clinton directed this server be established to cover up the tangled web of donors, State Department actions and her family foundation, we must ask ourselves if this is the kind of leadership we want in the White House.'
    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/02/republican-national-committee-hillary-clinton-becomes-first-major-party-candidate-to-sit-for-fbi-criminal-interview/
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Isn't Clive Lewis from exactly the same poisonous well that Corbyn comes from? He does the aggressive direct shouty action stuff, classic Momentum mentality.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Mortimer said:

    wasd said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    At times the Royle Family was painfully close to home.
    Absolutely. I have a cousin who thinks making beans on toast is cooking.
    Only if you put Lea and Perrins on it. That's adding ingredients, ergo, Cooking.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Are Tory grandees experts who can be trusted?
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.
    They should look to appoint a Howard figure. Someone to calm things and allow a new generation to develop. Proper succession planning - just the sort of thing that the Blair/Brown years failed to achieve.

    I know Alan Johnson keeps saying he doesn't want the job - but as a caretaker leader until 2020, he could steady things and allow Jarvis and others to come through
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,270
    notme said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Isn't Clive Lewis from exactly the same poisonous well that Corbyn comes from? He does the aggressive direct shouty action stuff, classic Momentum mentality.
    Utterly unelectable as PM in a GE. But, hey, why stop the fun now? Pass the popcorn.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

    The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.
    Here's an odd idea.

    Train our own people?

    That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    notme said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Isn't Clive Lewis from exactly the same poisonous well that Corbyn comes from? He does the aggressive direct shouty action stuff, classic Momentum mentality.
    If you say so.

    But outside of a few MPs, most of the Corbyn opponents, whatever their private thoughts, have been framing their criticism as being of him as a leader being inadequate, and not emphasizing quite as much the unsuitability of his ideas, I presume because they know the membership likes where Corbyn wants to take the party. And if they cannot defeat that feeling, if they are unwilling for obvious reasons to leave the party, then replacing Corbyn with a man who thinks the same things but might be a more credible leader is about the best they can do I guess.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    because they are absolutely guaranteed to keep their word once he does...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,270
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.
    Ed Miliband. Trust me on this.
    No ulterior motives there, I hope.

    Still, he couldn't be that bad. *recalls Edstone* You know, right now I would welcome that.
    Ed Miliband? Well, that would top the weirdest week in British political history off nicely.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,270

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.
    Ed Miliband. Trust me on this.
    He's not even in the BF list, unless I am missing something. I can't even bet on this idea.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    because they are absolutely guaranteed to keep their word once he does...
    The risk for them no doubt. But I don't really see how this mess is benefiting Corbyn and his comrades even if they win out. The parliamentary party can slink away if they cannot beat him, but they clearly aren't going to cooperate anymore either, and replacing them takes time. The movement is not helped by this chaos.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

    The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.
    Here's an odd idea.

    Train our own people?

    That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.
    Yeah, I'm with you on that, but that's for the longer term. That requires a massive cultural change in our society, so that more people want to become nurses etc than aspiring to work in nail bars.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

    The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.
    Here's an odd idea.

    Train our own people?

    That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.
    Reinstating passport checks at departure is the bare minimum. It is impossible to identify overstayers without.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,058

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    Caroline Ahern was sublime. Mrs merkel and the Royle Family- I am one of those saddos that can remember the script. I sometimes try and go through all the characters names in the Royles at night to help with my insomnia.

    Quite what Jim and the Royle Family would have made of Brexit? I'm sure that was in Caroline Ahern's head, and she would have been as uncompromising and funny as ever.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,270

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

    The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.
    Here's an odd idea.

    Train our own people?

    That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.
    It costs money. Big money, to train NHS staff.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,821
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.
    When was the last time any government put in genuine policies to curb immigration (explicitly to reduce numbers, not just give more control like the points system), I don't think it's ever happened?
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get it down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.
    I think it might come to that.
    I think the first, more realistic target would be 200,000 net - still down significantly on 350,000+.

    That leaves space for the 100,000 Highly Skilled visas at the current rate, and 100,000 for others. It will be a slow old reversal of 15 years of mass immigration....

    Oh, and counting people in would handy.
    No point in counting them in if you don't count them out.

    I suspect the Home Office is still writing letters to failed asylum seekers who left years ago.
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited July 2016
    deleted
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,333
    edited July 2016

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Who then? Everyone named is said to be unsuitable.
    Ed Miliband. Trust me on this.
    He's not even in the BF list, unless I am missing something. I can't even bet on this idea.
    You can bet on him with Skybet, Ladbrokes, and Publicity Shy Paddy Power at 100/1.

    Some of us shrewd PBers tipped and backed him at 200/1

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/29/is-this-ed-milibands-route-back-to-the-labour-leadership/

    PS - That was a thread I wrote from inside an 80s nightclub
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Andrea Leadsom interview: Thatcher, God, and why I should be Prime Minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/02/andrea-leadsom-interview-thatcher-god-and-why-i-should-be-prime/
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,999
    Lowlander said:

    There is a new thread.

    Nope, there isnt.
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941


    Here's an odd idea.

    Train our own people?

    That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.

    A good idea.

    But one that is unworkable when the education system in England is in tatters. Government has abandoned any influence óver Higher Education, it cannot dictate to Universities what courses to teach.

    The learning being taught today, to provide the skills for the future is instead decided by a market place where 18 years olds are the consumers trying to make very complicate decisions with very limited information,.

    Moreover, the cost of that decision is not real to them as it is provided by a guaranteed loan and not their own hard earned cash.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.
    Did that happen during the 2008 crash?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree.
    If non-EU immigration is running at
    Here's an odd idea.

    Train our own people?

    That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.
    Yeah, I'm with you on that, but that's for the longer term. That requires a massive cultural change in our society, so that more people want to become nurses etc than aspiring to work in nail bars.
    There are plenty of applicants for both Medical and Nursing schools, though calibre varies. Mostly the problem is the number of training places and retention. The removal of NHS bursaries and imposition of tuition fees for nurses is not going to help. Both nurses and doctors have terrible retention figures. Barely half are working in the NHS 2 years post qualification.

    I have checked with the GMC, EEA qualifications are automatically recognised, so if we go that route our Greek doctors and Portuguese nurses can keep coming if we stay in the EEA.

    I cannot help but wonder (along with many Leavers) what the point was though!
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,058
    Mortimer said:

    wasd said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    At times the Royle Family was painfully close to home.
    Absolutely. I have a cousin who thinks making beans on toast is cooking.
    Isn't it?

    I'd love to see a Brexit Royle family episode. Antony and his mum Barbara going for Remain, but Jim, Denise and Dave being staunch Brexiters. And what about Twiggy, Beverley Macker, Mary and Joseph.

    Caroline Aherne was also married to Peter Hook, legendary bassist of New Order. God, I'm nostalgic for Manchester at this minute.
  • Options
    Wow, that table makes the odds-on bet from Ladbrokes that May and Leadsom would be the winning duo look decidedly dodgy.
    Those of a nervous disposition, including yours truly, might like to cover their position by also having a piece of May & Gove at 5/1.
    DYOR.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,141
    Australia now 67 Lab, 66 Coalition with 12 in doubt !

    Andf the buggers have stopped counting, resumes Tuesday !
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:


    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.

    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    If non-EU immigration is running at 96,000 Tier 1 or Tier 2 Highly Skilled visas alone, I'm not sure how you get total immigration down near 100,000 per year unless you tell British businesses (and the NHS) not to hire people from abroad.

    The cat's out of the bag. It will be nigh impossible to get it back in again. That's the wrong expression, but it's late and you know what I mean.
    Here's an odd idea.

    Train our own people?

    That said, those are gross numbers not net. So you would also need to check who has actually left.
    Reinstating passport checks at departure is the bare minimum. It is impossible to identify overstayers without.
    Exactly. Nor is it possible to guarantee that wanted criminals are leaving either. This failure is the home secretaries fault... What's her name?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    because they are absolutely guaranteed to keep their word once he does...
    That is the idea about getting them to say it on the record (making it harder for them to go back on it), rather than just a nod-nod-wink-wink behind the scenes.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    Caroline Ahern was sublime. Mrs merkel and the Royle Family- I am one of those saddos that can remember the script. I sometimes try and go through all the characters names in the Royles at night to help with my insomnia.

    Quite what Jim and the Royle Family would have made of Brexit? I'm sure that was in Caroline Ahern's head, and she would have been as uncompromising and funny as ever.
    Yes very sad to see her go. The Royle family was very well observed. All of the characters were likeable, and not all based upon cheap stereotypes and catchphrases.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Wow, that table makes the odds-on bet from Ladbrokes that May and Leadsom would be the winning duo look decidedly dodgy.
    Those of a nervous disposition, including yours truly, might like to cover their position by also having a piece of May & Gove at 5/1.
    DYOR.
    They appear to be polling the public as opposed to Tory MPs.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2016

    notme said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    Lewis is monumentally unfit to lead a conga let alone a major political party, If Labour wants to self-immolate, it is thinking that someone like him is a viable leader that will hasten their demise.
    Isn't Clive Lewis from exactly the same poisonous well that Corbyn comes from? He does the aggressive direct shouty action stuff, classic Momentum mentality.
    Utterly unelectable as PM in a GE. But, hey, why stop the fun now? Pass the popcorn.
    Whereas those MPs who just threw all their chips in with the "Remain" campaign have shown just how electable they are!
  • Options
    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Danny565 said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Incidentally, my prediction for Labour for the next week: expect a group of about 30 Labour MPs to publicly promise to nominate Clive Lewis for the leadership contest, in exchange for getting Corbyn to quit.

    because they are absolutely guaranteed to keep their word once he does...
    That is the idea about getting them to say it on the record (making it harder for them to go back on it), rather than just a nod-nod-wink-wink behind the scenes.
    Even then, when they still do go back on it anyway - you're left practically powerless to do anything about it.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Why the Eagle is really a Duck.
    'Her proposed challenge threatens to create a chasm between her and party members. The Wallasey vote last week was 40 in favour of Corbyn, none against, and four abstentions. The judgement of Liam Hertzenberg, one of the members, is uncompromising. “I do not think she has the support of the CLP,” he said. “I hope she will be deselected.”'
    https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2016/jul/02/angela-eagle-anger-rises-in-her-wallasey-constituency-corbyn-labour?CMP=share_btn_tw
    2500 comments...
    Massive march today in Liverpool for Corbyn.
  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,670
    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    Caroline Ahern was sublime. Mrs merkel and the Royle Family- I am one of those saddos that can remember the script. I sometimes try and go through all the characters names in the Royles at night to help with my insomnia.

    Quite what Jim and the Royle Family would have made of Brexit? I'm sure that was in Caroline Ahern's head, and she would have been as uncompromising and funny as ever.
    I think you'll find it was Merton - or perhaps you're obsessed with European women at the moment!
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Leadsom's God-bothering ways would make me very, very wary of her.

    All faiths should be kept out of politics as far as I am concerned.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016

    Andrea Leadsom interview: Thatcher, God, and why I should be Prime Minister

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/02/andrea-leadsom-interview-thatcher-god-and-why-i-should-be-prime/

    I'm trying to think of reasons why the establishment seems to be so affronted by the idea of Andrea Leadsom as prime minister. One of the main ones might be a feeling on their part that she hasn't served enough time at the top and is leapfrogging people who've been patiently waiting for their chance like Theresa May. Another reason might be that she's too provincial for their liking, representing a nondescript constituency in Northamptonshire.
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.
    Did that happen during the 2008 crash?
    No but that's because all the european countries went into a recession too. It's the differential that matters.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,099
    edited July 2016
    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Too much alcohol (and ciggies) You need to start taking care of yourself maybe?
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    edited July 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Why the Eagle is really a Duck.
    'Her proposed challenge threatens to create a chasm between her and party members. The Wallasey vote last week was 40 in favour of Corbyn, none against, and four abstentions. The judgement of Liam Hertzenberg, one of the members, is uncompromising. “I do not think she has the support of the CLP,” he said. “I hope she will be deselected.”'
    https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2016/jul/02/angela-eagle-anger-rises-in-her-wallasey-constituency-corbyn-labour?CMP=share_btn_tw
    2500 comments...
    Massive march today in Liverpool for Corbyn.

    Momentum won't be stopped like someone as weak as Eagle.

    Labour can't survive if Momentum is allowed to continue to exert influence over the Party.

    Either a purge of Soviet-scale has to take place or a split will happen.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,653
    edited July 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.

    Did that happen during the 2008 crash?
    I think the best (potential) comparison for the UK is Spain during the Eurozone crisis. In the decade to 2008, Spain was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Employment went from 13m to almost 21m. But it was an economy based on (a) debt, (b) a massive current account deficit, (c) a housing boom, and (d) an influx of immigrants.

    Now, we are shielded somewhat due to having a floating exchange rate (although Spain has a stronger manufacturing economy than we do, and we have much worse government and personal debt than Spain did), but when the housing market turned down, and unemployment started to rise, net migration when from a very big positive number to a large negative one.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,362
    All this talk of net migration seems to be forgetting the "net" bit. Even if a fall in immigration was achieved (which I don't think it can) net migration could still increase due to an even bigger fall in emigration. Unless we are going to have soviet style exit controls we are never going to have full control of the net migration numbers.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    YouGov polled.me tonight on the political crisis and voting intentions. Guessing it's for Monday
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,141

    Wow, that table makes the odds-on bet from Ladbrokes that May and Leadsom would be the winning duo look decidedly dodgy.
    Those of a nervous disposition, including yours truly, might like to cover their position by also having a piece of May & Gove at 5/1.
    DYOR.
    They appear to be polling the public as opposed to Tory MPs.
    The public barely know who Andrea Leadsome is. Tory MPs will know her very well.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    TudorRose said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    Caroline Ahern was sublime. Mrs merkel and the Royle Family- I am one of those saddos that can remember the script. I sometimes try and go through all the characters names in the Royles at night to help with my insomnia.

    Quite what Jim and the Royle Family would have made of Brexit? I'm sure that was in Caroline Ahern's head, and she would have been as uncompromising and funny as ever.
    I think you'll find it was Merton - or perhaps you're obsessed with European women at the moment!
    The constant presence of European politics is getting everywhere - I've been replaying Dragon age Inquisition and came across a giant warhammer weapon called Merkel's Fist. I hope the real one is less destructive on us.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,653

    All this talk of net migration seems to be forgetting the "net" bit. Even if a fall in immigration was achieved (which I don't think it can) net migration could still increase due to an even bigger fall in emigration. Unless we are going to have soviet style exit controls we are never going to have full control of the net migration numbers.

    We could refuse to let people back in if they've been contaminated by spending time abroad.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,301
    Pulpstar said:

    Australia now 67 Lab, 66 Coalition with 12 in doubt !

    Andf the buggers have stopped counting, resumes Tuesday !

    You what? What kind of election is that?! I know our politics is a basket case right now, but you don't stop counting an election for the weekend!
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Pauly said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    May might go for EEA but a points system for non-EU immigration (fewer muzzies more Indain doctors, etc) and a serious crackdown on EU benefits whilst allowing them legally to come (but they'll do so in far fewer numbers). We'll have left and the numbers will fall.

    Of the 531 000 non-EU visas last year only 96 000 were for Tier 1 and 2 highly skilled migrants. Table 3: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016#immigration-to-the-uk

    May was pretty pisspoor at reducing the immigration that she could control.

    We need to end virtually all non-EU immigration, apart from Tier 1 and Tier 2. End chain migration apart from very eligible spouses, immediate kids. But, most of all, take bloody students out of the stats, they mislead.

    I think the first thing we need to do is actually count them in (and record passport numbers and detail) and count them out. The statistics are just statistics.

    May is responsible for not knowing or controlling non EU migration. There is no reason to believe she will do better as PM.
    The political climate is now totally changed. I think this will happen whoever gets to be PM.
    I agree. This has been a seismic and necessary shock to the body politic. My guess (or my hope) is that we will end up with a Brexit lite that doesn't do that much damage to the country, economically, and does restore some significant sovereignty.

    EEA, probably.

    But everyone is now aware - very aware - that endless immigration is simply unsustainable. Next time it won't be a lost referendum, it will be civil strife. The UK government HAS to get it down to 100,000 a year, or so.
    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.
    Did that happen during the 2008 crash?
    No but that's because all the european countries went into a recession too. It's the differential that matters.
    Oh right. Unemployment low in the EU at the moment?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,141
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Australia now 67 Lab, 66 Coalition with 12 in doubt !

    Andf the buggers have stopped counting, resumes Tuesday !

    You what? What kind of election is that?! I know our politics is a basket case right now, but you don't stop counting an election for the weekend!
    I'm on Labour + 12.5 at shit odds, never ever betting on Australian elections again tbh.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.

    Did that happen during the 2008 crash?
    I think the best (potential) comparison for the UK is Spain during the Eurozone crisis. In the decade to 2008, Spain was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Employment went from 13m to almost 21m. But it was an economy based on (a) debt, (b) a massive current account deficit, (c) a housing boom, and (d) an influx of immigrants.

    Now, we are shielded somewhat due to having a floating exchange rate (although Spain has a stronger manufacturing economy than we do, and we have much worse government and personal debt than Spain did), but when the housing market turned down, and unemployment started to rise, net migration when from a very big positive number to a large negative one.
    That is actually one of the big problems with the way the EU and free movement works.

    People leaving on mass probably made everything worse, leading to a vast over supply of housing.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,058
    TudorRose said:

    tyson said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Not just funny, genuinely original. The Royle Family was entirely new.
    Caroline Ahern was sublime. Mrs merkel and the Royle Family- I am one of those saddos that can remember the script. I sometimes try and go through all the characters names in the Royles at night to help with my insomnia.

    Quite what Jim and the Royle Family would have made of Brexit? I'm sure that was in Caroline Ahern's head, and she would have been as uncompromising and funny as ever.
    I think you'll find it was Merton - or perhaps you're obsessed with European women at the moment!
    That is a freudian slip if ever I had one.

    I'm a bit gutted by Italy's defeat.....so it can happen

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,141

    It's reassuring to find out that Andrea Leadsom has been so cynical. It's the first thing I've heard about her that gives me comfort.

    "And then I looked at the EU more closely, and I reached the conclusion that Britain would be stronger, safer, better off outside the grip of an institution which acted so bureaucratically and inflexibly."
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Leadsom's God-bothering ways would make me very, very wary of her.

    All faiths should be kept out of politics as far as I am concerned.

    How do you stop people's beliefs affecting their actions? Religious faith is just another belief.

    Coming at it from a different angle, are you suggesting that muslims should be barred from running for office? Along with Christians, Hindu, Jews, Taoists and so forth.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,058
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    As an aside, Caroline Aherne? Really? 52? That's my age.

    Pfffffffffff.

    She was funny.

    Too much alcohol (and ciggies) You need to start taking care of yourself maybe?
    Didn't stop Winston Churchill.

    The majority of us are reliant on the genetic makeup bestowed on us by our families. Despite, all the warnings and 5 a day, and a thimble of wine, your family genes decide pretty much how long you'll live and how you'll die.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,653

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We could easily have negative net immigration in a recessionary scenario.

    Did that happen during the 2008 crash?
    I think the best (potential) comparison for the UK is Spain during the Eurozone crisis. In the decade to 2008, Spain was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Employment went from 13m to almost 21m. But it was an economy based on (a) debt, (b) a massive current account deficit, (c) a housing boom, and (d) an influx of immigrants.

    Now, we are shielded somewhat due to having a floating exchange rate (although Spain has a stronger manufacturing economy than we do, and we have much worse government and personal debt than Spain did), but when the housing market turned down, and unemployment started to rise, net migration when from a very big positive number to a large negative one.
    That is actually one of the big problems with the way the EU and free movement works.

    People leaving on mass probably made everything worse, leading to a vast over supply of housing.
    Ultimately, hideously unbalanced economies must balance. Whether it's China with their excessive capital investment, Spain 2008 or the UK in 2016, balance will be reached.

    The question is merely the degree of pain - and who experiences it - that comes with the rebalancing.
This discussion has been closed.