politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The skids are under Jeremy. Members should get the chance t
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Belgium 1-1 Britain0
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Poirot 1:1 Land of my Fathers0
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Cmon lads -0
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Corbyn is 8 sets down and refusing to leave the court claiming some kind of victory and planning to go on and on and on.0
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Wales refusing to accept they are out of Europe.0
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It's time for czechia to have an EU referendum Milos Zeman: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-01/czech-president-calls-eu-nato-referendums0
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E.U superstate 1:1Independent country0
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Hard to disagree with that assessment.Indigo said:
Your not serious, Ambrose "Hyperbole" Prichard, the same financial journo that everyone take the piss out of here because he is never knowingly right about anything ?SeanT said:Read Ambrose Evans Pritchard on this. He's very good. He voted LEAVE, reluctantly (like me), and he said before the vote that if Brexit was handled badly it could go spectacularly wrong: absolute catastrophe. And he's a LEAVER.
This is what we risk.0 -
What a game this is - fantastic Wales0
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No chance of all 170 resigning the whip IMOSandpit said:
Quite! They're too far along to spend the next however many years sitting meekly on the back benches, Corbyn and his henchmen will be gunning for the lot of them.foxinsoxuk said:
They are screwed if they chicken out. It is fight now or have their necks wrung.Sandpit said:
You're right that I'm not an expert in CLP Kremlinology, but the dissenters are clearly weakened if they half-challenge the leader and lose the membership vote again.Jobabob said:
You clearly have no grasp of the situation in CLPs. Mass deselections are the stuff of Corbynite/Tory fantasy.Sandpit said:
This is one amazing slow motion car crash. Surely even Watson knows that Jeremy isn't resigning now - why go through everything that happened this week only to step down anyway?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Someone needs to actually make the challenge, but no-one dares be the one who splits the party by triggering the contest that sees Corbyn win again. The sensible wing of the PLP might as well all resign now, they're getting deselected anyway and don't have a spine between the lot of them!
They need to either challenge him formally or resign the whip. A 170-strong SDP could do the vitally important job of holding the government to account, which nobody is doing right now.0 -
No opponent LoveJonathan said:Corbyn is 8 sets down and refusing to leave the court claiming some kind of victory and planning to go on and on and on.
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Surely they're confident of holding their seats on name recognition alone without the need for the "Labour" badge ?bigjohnowls said:
No chance of all 170 resigning the whip IMOSandpit said:
Quite! They're too far along to spend the next however many years sitting meekly on the back benches, Corbyn and his henchmen will be gunning for the lot of them.foxinsoxuk said:
They are screwed if they chicken out. It is fight now or have their necks wrung.Sandpit said:
You're right that I'm not an expert in CLP Kremlinology, but the dissenters are clearly weakened if they half-challenge the leader and lose the membership vote again.Jobabob said:
You clearly have no grasp of the situation in CLPs. Mass deselections are the stuff of Corbynite/Tory fantasy.Sandpit said:
This is one amazing slow motion car crash. Surely even Watson knows that Jeremy isn't resigning now - why go through everything that happened this week only to step down anyway?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Someone needs to actually make the challenge, but no-one dares be the one who splits the party by triggering the contest that sees Corbyn win again. The sensible wing of the PLP might as well all resign now, they're getting deselected anyway and don't have a spine between the lot of them!
They need to either challenge him formally or resign the whip. A 170-strong SDP could do the vitally important job of holding the government to account, which nobody is doing right now.0 -
You poor sod. I suppose the trick might be to switch mindset so that being teetotal becomes a positive good rather than something to be regretted. Good luck with that.JosiasJessop said:
My medication doesn't allow it. Beside the boss thinks that even having a teeny glass of wine isn't a good idea when the problem's with my head (no jokes needed - I've heard them all already).
Today's been slightly stressful; the sort of day when a drink would help me unwind. But I'd better not.
Still, on the bright side all the money I'm saving on alcohol is going into Robert's bank account. He'll be a rich boy if I keep this up until he's 18 .
Anyway it is good to see you posting on here again, and double plus good to engineering getting an audition again amongst all the bedwetting.0 -
LOL I will give you Evens on Tory Perkins as SDP2 if you want!!Pulpstar said:
Surely they're confident of holding their seats on name recognition alone without the need for the "Labour" badge ?bigjohnowls said:
No chance of all 170 resigning the whip IMOSandpit said:
Quite! They're too far along to spend the next however many years sitting meekly on the back benches, Corbyn and his henchmen will be gunning for the lot of them.foxinsoxuk said:
They are screwed if they chicken out. It is fight now or have their necks wrung.Sandpit said:
You're right that I'm not an expert in CLP Kremlinology, but the dissenters are clearly weakened if they half-challenge the leader and lose the membership vote again.Jobabob said:
You clearly have no grasp of the situation in CLPs. Mass deselections are the stuff of Corbynite/Tory fantasy.Sandpit said:
This is one amazing slow motion car crash. Surely even Watson knows that Jeremy isn't resigning now - why go through everything that happened this week only to step down anyway?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Someone needs to actually make the challenge, but no-one dares be the one who splits the party by triggering the contest that sees Corbyn win again. The sensible wing of the PLP might as well all resign now, they're getting deselected anyway and don't have a spine between the lot of them!
They need to either challenge him formally or resign the whip. A 170-strong SDP could do the vitally important job of holding the government to account, which nobody is doing right now.0 -
I think that LDs exposed last year how thin personal votes are. It is mostly MPs vanity that keeps the myth going.Pulpstar said:
Surely they're confident of holding their seats on name recognition alone without the need for the "Labour" badge ?bigjohnowls said:
No chance of all 170 resigning the whip IMOSandpit said:
Quite! They're too far along to spend the next however many years sitting meekly on the back benches, Corbyn and his henchmen will be gunning for the lot of them.foxinsoxuk said:
They are screwed if they chicken out. It is fight now or have their necks wrung.Sandpit said:
You're right that I'm not an expert in CLP Kremlinology, but the dissenters are clearly weakened if they half-challenge the leader and lose the membership vote again.Jobabob said:
You clearly have no grasp of the situation in CLPs. Mass deselections are the stuff of Corbynite/Tory fantasy.Sandpit said:
This is one amazing slow motion car crash. Surely even Watson knows that Jeremy isn't resigning now - why go through everything that happened this week only to step down anyway?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Someone needs to actually make the challenge, but no-one dares be the one who splits the party by triggering the contest that sees Corbyn win again. The sensible wing of the PLP might as well all resign now, they're getting deselected anyway and don't have a spine between the lot of them!
They need to either challenge him formally or resign the whip. A 170-strong SDP could do the vitally important job of holding the government to account, which nobody is doing right now.0 -
@Luckyguy1983
'I think we'll take advice on what is and isn't an economic fiasco by a Labour supporter with a pinch of salt shall we?'
LOL
The hysteria is a sight to behold.0 -
@LuckyGuy
Counterfactual
June 23, 2016.
Close to midnight it becomes clear that the UK has voted Yes 52-48 to enter the European superstate, the United States of Europe. The decision is a major shock. No had been widely expected to win.
June 24, 2016.
Economists warn of the UK making a "grave mistake". Markets plunge.
July 24, 2016.
There is a market crisis, Sterling has plummeted, house prices have crashed. Millions face negative equity. Unemployment is forecast to spike.
October 24, 2016.
Polling widely shows the public mood has changed. Some 70% now support staying out of the European superstate.
November 24, 2016.
The time has come for the government to invoke Article 51, which triggers an unstoppable two-year path to entering the United States of Europe. PM May is hesitant. Federalists cry foul. "To fail to enter the superstate now is denying the clear will of the people. Any true democrat will trigger Article 51 now."
@LuckyGuy – what would you do?
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I would like to see NEC put a time limit on this.
If the chicken coup cannot find a candidate next week its awarded as a W/O to Jezza!!!0 -
YES. I KNOW. But they are where they are. It was an act of unmitigated stupidity but it's water under the bridge.TheScreamingEagles said:
We would never have ensured Corbyn was on last year's ballot.Jobabob said:
Bravo.Pulpstar said:
Ask Ma Beckett.TheScreamingEagles said:
We had a candidate who could win, but had huge doubts about him.Jonathan said:
There is nothing good or admirable in the Tory election. Nothing you would wish to emulate.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Tories have given them a very public lesson on how to perform a ruthless defenestration.kle4 said:
Bottlers. They took it to the brink and he did not blink, if they step back now they are declaring themselves beaten and should leave the party or serve Corbyn loyally from now.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
When will Labour learn?
Labour goes out of their way to put him on the ballot, the Tories make sure he doesn't even get that close.
Also at least the Labour party haven't subjected the country to a daft referendum.
I would have expected @TheScreamingEagles and others on here who purport to understand politics to have a rudimentary grasp of Labour Party leadership rules. Yes, the rules are insane and need to be changed to the far superior Tory system yet nevertheless those are the rules and the PLP is bound by them unless and until someone sensible can get in there and change them.
Perhaps the master strategists @TheScreamingEagles @Sandpit and @Jason could share with us what they would have done differently?
It's the equivalent of the Tories nominating/electing a Monday Clubber0 -
Life in academia not as dull as it might seem.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2016/07/01/naked-don-a-cambridge-academics-protest-against-brexit/0 -
Wales still 25-1 to win the euros (bet fair) At 1-1 that looks like a good trading bet to me whilst Belgium are on 7-1
DYOR!0 -
Small but significant move to Leadsom on Betfair.0
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If you're going to challenge, you have to be prepared to see it through.Jobabob said:
Again, I ask what you would have done differently...?*Sandpit said:
You're right that I'm not an expert in CLP Kremlinology, but the dissenters are clearly weakened if they half-challenge the leader and lose the membership vote again.Jobabob said:
You clearly have no grasp of the situation in CLPs. Mass deselections are the stuff of Corbynite/Tory fantasy.Sandpit said:
This is one amazing slow motion car crash. Surely even Watson knows that Jeremy isn't resigning now - why go through everything that happened this week only to step down anyway?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Someone needs to actually make the challenge, but no-one dares be the one who splits the party by triggering the contest that sees Corbyn win again. The sensible wing of the PLP might as well all resign now, they're getting deselected anyway and don't have a spine between the lot of them!
*I accept that the rules are stupid, and Labour should change to the Tory system, which is far superior, but nevertheless that is the game they are in, for now.
3/4 of the PLP have told him to resign, he hasn't, so they've all shrugged their shoulders and done nothing more, hoping that the leadership will just forget about it and carry on.
What's been said can't be unsaid, those 172 MPs need to either challenge Corbyn formally or resign the party whip.0 -
Rolls eyes.TCPoliticalBetting said:Life in academia not as dull as it might seem.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2016/07/01/naked-don-a-cambridge-academics-protest-against-brexit/
Only at Cambridge.
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Er no, they will challenge if forced to, but hope he shows the common decency to stand down first. There is simply no constitutional precedent for his staying – indeed that was never written into the rules as it was assumed that no leader would ever stay on in the face of such a huge Commons rebellion.Sandpit said:
If you're going to challenge, you have to be prepared to see it through. 3/4 of the PLP have told him to resign, he hasn't, so they've all shrugged their shoulders and done nothing more, hoping that the leadership will forget about it.Jobabob said:
Again, I ask what you would have done differently...?*Sandpit said:
You're right that I'm not an expert in CLP Kremlinology, but the dissenters are clearly weakened if they half-challenge the leader and lose the membership vote again.Jobabob said:
You clearly have no grasp of the situation in CLPs. Mass deselections are the stuff of Corbynite/Tory fantasy.Sandpit said:
This is one amazing slow motion car crash. Surely even Watson knows that Jeremy isn't resigning now - why go through everything that happened this week only to step down anyway?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Someone needs to actually make the challenge, but no-one dares be the one who splits the party by triggering the contest that sees Corbyn win again. The sensible wing of the PLP might as well all resign now, they're getting deselected anyway and don't have a spine between the lot of them!
*I accept that the rules are stupid, and Labour should change to the Tory system, which is far superior, but nevertheless that is the game they are in, for now.0 -
Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .0 -
Odd move on Betfair, Benn matched at 95.0
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Yeah, but they've won.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .0 -
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .0 -
@bigjohnowls
'If the chicken coup cannot find a candidate next week its awarded as a W/O to Jezza!!!'
Spot on, what a pathetic bunch of cowardly wankers..
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Which is where he should be!Pulpstar said:Odd move on Betfair, Benn matched at 95.
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0
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Are you suggesting UKIP are defecating over the political landscape ....MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Sh*t ....
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This is why I *love* Cambridge.Mortimer said:
Rolls eyes.TCPoliticalBetting said:Life in academia not as dull as it might seem.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2016/07/01/naked-don-a-cambridge-academics-protest-against-brexit/
Only at Cambridge.
I particularly like:Ms Bateman, a lecturer has researched the development of the European economy, sat at the two-hour meeting without anyone mentioning her nudity they just went on with a normal meeting about tripos and marking.
There was a naked cycle ride in Cambridge a few weeks ago. (NSFW)
Nigel Knight, director of studies at Churchill College and the chair of the meeting, glanced at her and then said to his secretary: “I think we need some cups for the coffee” and everyone else just stared straight ahead.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/video-2-from-cambridge-naked-bike-ride-2016/story-29417112-detail/story.html0 -
Ha! Absolutely brilliant.TCPoliticalBetting said:Good as ever.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt//0 -
Well when we talk about the party of one. Lib Dems =MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
1 MEP
1 Welsh Assembly
1 London Assembly
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Yes but Sean is unique in that he got buyer's remorse before he actually bought anything.Jobabob said:
Er well yes, he has got buyer's remorse, which I think he has admitted numerous times, but at least he has the cojones to admit it.JosiasJessop said:
If the economy crashes, then it will be because the remain 'experts' were correct that that was what the leave campaigns would lead to. As you say, perversely an economic crash *will* reduce immigration.SeanT said:There's no point in crashing the economy so you can say Told you so, even more
Besides, moving to EEA is very definitely LEAVING, and will itself require quite a wrench. We will have no more MEPs, no more Commissioners, no more UK eurocrats, none of that. The 50-70% of UK law which is at present EU-derived will go down to 10%.
We'll be out of the CFP and CAP. Our contributions will likely fall. The ECJ's power over us will be hugely reduced.
As for immigration, as I keep saying, it's going to fall quite drastically anyway - particularly from the EU. There won't be lots of spare jobs for Romanians and Poles, unemployment is going to rise. Without a doubt. We may see net EMIGRATION for a year or two, which will take the issue entirely off the table.
This was one of the reasons I eventually and somewhat reluctantly voted remain: I believed that a full-leave would have severe consequences in the short and medium terms, whilst any fudge would be seen as an utter sell-out by most of the noisy people who've been campaigning for years (excluding a few people like Richard Tyndall). When EEA/EFTA left the table, as a small-c conservative I could not vote leave.
Then there are the monetary issues: I can see many leave voters not wanting a single pound to go to 'European' organisations such as EEA / EFTA, especially after the way payments to the EU became an issue in the campaign.
I'm sorry you've got buyer's regret. But that's no reason to sell-out the people who won.
In any case, wantonly destroying our economy because we are unwilling to compromise with the sensible wing (yes, I mean SeanT!) of the Leave bloc is downright idiotic, and destructively irresponsible. We are where we are, ergo we must go for EEA and make the best of this fucking fiasco.0 -
How long would you give him to do the decent thing? Watching this from afar it's clear that he has no intention of standing down and the rules are such that he can't be forced out against his will.Jobabob said:
Er no, they will challenge if forced to, but hope he shows the common decency to stand down first. There is simply no constitutional precedent for his staying – indeed that was never written into the rules as it was assumed that no leader would ever stay on in the face of such a huge Commons rebellion.Sandpit said:
If you're going to challenge, you have to be prepared to see it through. 3/4 of the PLP have told him to resign, he hasn't, so they've all shrugged their shoulders and done nothing more, hoping that the leadership will forget about it.Jobabob said:
Again, I ask what you would have done differently...?*Sandpit said:
You're right that I'm not an expert in CLP Kremlinology, but the dissenters are clearly weakened if they half-challenge the leader and lose the membership vote again.Jobabob said:
You clearly have no grasp of the situation in CLPs. Mass deselections are the stuff of Corbynite/Tory fantasy.Sandpit said:
This is one amazing slow motion car crash. Surely even Watson knows that Jeremy isn't resigning now - why go through everything that happened this week only to step down anyway?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
Someone needs to actually make the challenge, but no-one dares be the one who splits the party by triggering the contest that sees Corbyn win again. The sensible wing of the PLP might as well all resign now, they're getting deselected anyway and don't have a spine between the lot of them!
*I accept that the rules are stupid, and Labour should change to the Tory system, which is far superior, but nevertheless that is the game they are in, for now.
Will Tom and Seamus visit him tomorrow, leaving a bottle of whisky and a revolver on his desk?0 -
Fellani on for Begium - they must be in a panic0
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Brilliant! Lenin's quote about a decade's worth of politics in a week springs to mind, was it really only 181 hours ago that the PM announced his resignation?TCPoliticalBetting said:Good as ever.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt//0 -
I have a bad feeling a Welsh red card us coming0
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Am I the only one who thinks Corbyn would win another leadership contest? He was far better in the last contest than everyone else and his opponents were all of a much higher calibre than Angela Eagle.0
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Ordered by Juncker !!corporeal said:I have a bad feeling a Welsh red card us coming
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I think Liechtenstein is cut slack on freedom of residence because there literally isn't any space for them. It's tiny anyway and most of what little there is consists of mountains. Habitable land is the size of the postage stamps they try to flog you.rcs1000 said:
Ah, but it's a bit more complex. Leichenstein uses the points system for residence. But you are allowed to (and many people do) live across the border and work in Leichtenstein.Richard_Tyndall said:By the way, having been away working for the last few weeks so limited in my time to do research, I never bothered chasing up about the stuff people have been saying about being able to permanently control migration whilst remaining in the EEA. I have always assumed that this simply involved Article 112 of the EEA Treaty but having actually bothered to go and find out about it now I see it does not.
Liechtenstein has a permanent opt out from freedom of movement in a specific amendment to the EEA treaty which allows it to operate a points quota system for immigration.
Personally I don't see any way that we would be able to get a similar amendment but I do at least now see what the advocates have been talking about.
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=861220 -
1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.0 -
I agree with that EFTA/EEA will do least damage in the short term. My concern is that most of the same vocal people who have been complaining about the EU and immigrants for the last couple of decades will not be silenced by the fudge. They'll be joined by people who rightly believe the 'establishment' has lied to them and not followed what the voters' voted for.Jobabob said:
Er well yes, he has got buyer's remorse, which I think he has admitted numerous times, but at least he has the cojones to admit it.JosiasJessop said:
If the economy crashes, then it will be because the remain 'experts' were correct that that was what the leave campaigns would lead to. As you say, perversely an economic crash *will* reduce immigration.SeanT said:There's no point in crashing the economy so you can say Told you so, even more
Besides, moving to EEA is very definitely LEAVING, and will itself require quite a wrench. We will have no more MEPs, no more Commissioners, no more UK eurocrats, none of that. The 50-70% of UK law which is at present EU-derived will go down to 10%.
We'll be out of the CFP and CAP. Our contributions will likely fall. The ECJ's power over us will be hugely reduced.
As for immigration, as I keep saying, it's going to fall quite drastically anyway - particularly from the EU. There won't be lots of spare jobs for Romanians and Poles, unemployment is going to rise. Without a doubt. We may see net EMIGRATION for a year or two, which will take the issue entirely off the table.
This was one of the reasons I eventually and somewhat reluctantly voted remain: I believed that a full-leave would have severe consequences in the short and medium terms, whilst any fudge would be seen as an utter sell-out by most of the noisy people who've been campaigning for years (excluding a few people like Richard Tyndall). When EEA/EFTA left the table, as a small-c conservative I could not vote leave.
Then there are the monetary issues: I can see many leave voters not wanting a single pound to go to 'European' organisations such as EEA / EFTA, especially after the way payments to the EU became an issue in the campaign.
I'm sorry you've got buyer's regret. But that's no reason to sell-out the people who won.
In any case, wantonly destroying our economy because we are unwilling to compromise with the sensible wing (yes, I mean SeanT!) of the Leave bloc is downright idiotic, and destructively irresponsible. We are where we are, ergo we must go for EEA and make the best of this fucking fiasco.
In the meantime, immigrants will continue to be blamed for everything.
EFTA/EEA might be making the worst of a bad job. But it'll be storing up trouble in the medium- and long-term. It might even be disastrous.
The sensible wing of the leavers are not the people to worry about.0 -
Corbyn 2016 is much diminished compared to Corbyn 2015.CopperSulphate said:Am I the only one who thinks Corbyn would win another leadership contest? He was far better in the last contest than everyone else and his opponents were all of a much higher calibre than Angela Eagle.
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For anoraks: Lambeth ward breakdowns.
https://moderngov.lambeth.gov.uk/documents/s82579/EUREFResultsforLambeth.pdf?platform=hootsuite
Western Isles:
http://www.cne-siar.gov.uk/electionoffice/eureferendum/results/Count breakdown by ward.pdf0 -
Brexiteers 2 Brussels 1!!0
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Wales Yesssssssss0
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2-1 Wales! 0
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WALES WALES WALES!0
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That was very well taken. Up the Brexiteers!0
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Fantastic from Wales.0
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Really? No one gave him a chance last time and his opponents seem to be far far worse now. I mean Angela Eagle.SandyRentool said:
Corbyn 2016 is much diminished compared to Corbyn 2015.CopperSulphate said:Am I the only one who thinks Corbyn would win another leadership contest? He was far better in the last contest than everyone else and his opponents were all of a much higher calibre than Angela Eagle.
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I have a horrible feeling we might end up with tactical voting from May supporters to ensure Gove makes it through instead of Leadsom.SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.0 -
1) Leadsome actually believes in "proper" Brexit ?SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.
2) "Put up or shut up" as an ex PM once said.0 -
Apols if previously posted.
The Times: "The far-right Freedom Party earned a second chance to win the Austrian presidency yesterday after the country’s highest court overturned the recent election result due to counting irregularities.
Judges accepted an appeal by the anti-immigrant party claiming that rules were broken over the handling of nearly 78,000 votes, in a contest where the winning margin was a mere 30,863 out of almost 4.5 million votes cast."0 -
Then let's make the supply side reforms to cut the knees from immigration. Let's fix the benefits system and improve the life chances of our young people by improving our schools, colleges and universities.JosiasJessop said:
I agree with that EFTA/EEA will do least damage in the short term. My concern is that most of the same vocal people who have been complaining about the EU and immigrants for the last couple of decades will not be silenced by the fudge. They'll be joined by people who rightly believe the 'establishment' has lied to them and not followed what the voters' voted for.
In the meantime, immigrants will continue to be blamed for everything.
EFTA/EEA might be making the worst of a bad job. But it'll be storing up trouble in the medium- and long-term. It might even be disastrous.
The sensible wing of the leavers are not the people to worry about.
In the near term immigration will go down anyway, we are being seen as a hostile environment for immigrants and it is likely that economic growth will slow.
We have an opportunity to change this country for the better in the long term. Let's not throw it away by chasing an impossible policy of pulling up the drawbridge.0 -
I have never been prouder to be half-Welsh
. England would have given anything for that kind of finishing. 0 -
I agree about Eagle.CopperSulphate said:
Really? No one gave him a chance last time and his opponents seem to be far far worse now. I mean Angela Eagle.SandyRentool said:
Corbyn 2016 is much diminished compared to Corbyn 2015.CopperSulphate said:Am I the only one who thinks Corbyn would win another leadership contest? He was far better in the last contest than everyone else and his opponents were all of a much higher calibre than Angela Eagle.
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Surely Crabb is the safe choice for tactical voting, seeing as he will clearly fold to May ?AndyJS said:
I have a horrible feeling we might end up with tactical voting from May supporters to ensure Gove makes it through instead of Leadsom.SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.0 -
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.0 -
Yes, Crabb is the safe option. Fox as well since he would get beaten.Pulpstar said:
Surely Crabb is the safe choice for tactical voting, seeing as he will clearly fold to May ?AndyJS said:
I have a horrible feeling we might end up with tactical voting from May supporters to ensure Gove makes it through instead of Leadsom.SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.0 -
Wales have only ever been knocked out of a major international tournament when Pele has scored against them.0
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Mr . T. cheerfully admits he has psychological issues and Bobajob is having hysterics (nothing in any projection from IFS etc. or elsewhere, suggests that the UK economy is likely to be destroyed). Nor, for Mr Tyson's benefit, do I see the fundamental nature of the British people being wrecked.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yes but Sean is unique in that he got buyer's remorse before he actually bought anything.
Might be nice if this site got back to some semblance of normality. A bit more hard-headed, political betting (or even just politics) a bit more classical history, maybe some more engineering and trains, even cats. Whatever, but all this endless hyperbole about how the sky is about to fall if we leave the EU has become tiresome. FFS, when people start quoting AEP, who has been reviled on here for years, as being an authoritative source we have definitely reached the bottom of the barrel.0 -
PM Fox, LOTO Corbyn. Hmm,.MaxPB said:
Yes, Crabb is the safe option. Fox as well since he would get beaten.Pulpstar said:
Surely Crabb is the safe choice for tactical voting, seeing as he will clearly fold to May ?AndyJS said:
I have a horrible feeling we might end up with tactical voting from May supporters to ensure Gove makes it through instead of Leadsom.SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.0 -
Crowd singing "Are you watching Ingerland?"
My dilute Welsh blood is coursing through my veins.0 -
I meant in the final round if it's between May, Gove and Leadsom. May will probably have more than enough support to ensure an easy passage to the final two. It'll be between Gove and Leadsom, with May supporters believing they have a better chance of winning with the membership if they're against Gove. Therefore some of May's supporters vote for Gove in the final round to stop Leadsom.Pulpstar said:
Surely Crabb is the safe choice for tactical voting, seeing as he will clearly fold to May ?AndyJS said:
I have a horrible feeling we might end up with tactical voting from May supporters to ensure Gove makes it through instead of Leadsom.SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.0 -
Hear, hear!HurstLlama said:
Mr . T. cheerfully admits he has psychological issues and Bobajob is having hysterics (nothing in any projection from IFS etc. or elsewhere, suggests that the UK economy is likely to be destroyed). Nor, for Mr Tyson's benefit, do I see the fundamental nature of the British people being wrecked.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yes but Sean is unique in that he got buyer's remorse before he actually bought anything.
Might be nice if this site got back to some semblance of normality. A bit more hard-headed, political betting (or even just politics) a bit more classical history, maybe some more engineering and trains, even cats. Whatever, but all this endless hyperbole about how the sky is about to fall if we leave the EU has become tiresome. FFS, when people start quoting AEP, who has been reviled on here for years, as being an authoritative source we have definitely reached the bottom of the barrel.0 -
If freedom of movement is retained, as I hope it is, Farage will look to capitaliseTykejohnno said:
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.0 -
No politics allowed, this is a welsh football blog until further notice.HurstLlama said:
Mr . T. cheerfully admits he has psychological issues and Bobajob is having hysterics (nothing in any projection from IFS etc. or elsewhere, suggests that the UK economy is likely to be destroyed). Nor, for Mr Tyson's benefit, do I see the fundamental nature of the British people being wrecked.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yes but Sean is unique in that he got buyer's remorse before he actually bought anything.
Might be nice if this site got back to some semblance of normality. A bit more hard-headed, political betting (or even just politics) a bit more classical history, maybe some more engineering and trains, even cats. Whatever, but all this endless hyperbole about how the sky is about to fall if we leave the EU has become tiresome. FFS, when people start quoting AEP, who has been reviled on here for years, as being an authoritative source we have definitely reached the bottom of the barrel.0 -
102 seats for UKIP?HYUFD said:
If freedom of movement is retained, as I hope it is, Farage will look to capitaliseTykejohnno said:
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.0 -
I'm more Belgium than Welsh, 1/16 Belgium herefoxinsoxuk said:Crowd singing "Are you watching Ingerland?"
My dilute Welsh blood is coursing through my veins.
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Most Welsh blood right now is diluted by alcoholfoxinsoxuk said:Crowd singing "Are you watching Ingerland?"
My dilute Welsh blood is coursing through my veins.0 -
Come to my area of living and see what freedom of movement is bringing,bet you wouldn't live here.HYUFD said:
If freedom of movement is retained, as I hope it is, Farage will look to capitaliseTykejohnno said:
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.0 -
Is that enough for an EU passport?Pulpstar said:
I'm more Belgium than Welsh, 1/16 Belgium herefoxinsoxuk said:Crowd singing "Are you watching Ingerland?"
My dilute Welsh blood is coursing through my veins.0 -
Let them have them. Eventually immigration will come down if we make benefits contributory.SandyRentool said:
102 seats for UKIP?HYUFD said:
If freedom of movement is retained, as I hope it is, Farage will look to capitaliseTykejohnno said:
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.0 -
Yes, we should do all those things. In fact we could have done most of that years ago inside the EU. But we didn't, partly because the solutions are not obvious or easy. Hence the hideous 20%-odd rate of illiteracy and innumeracy which has been constant for many decades. I like your unfounded optimism you can fix these problems easily and quickly.MaxPB said:
Then let's make the supply side reforms to cut the knees from immigration. Let's fix the benefits system and improve the life chances of our young people by improving our schools, colleges and universities.JosiasJessop said:
I agree with that EFTA/EEA will do least damage in the short term. My concern is that most of the same vocal people who have been complaining about the EU and immigrants for the last couple of decades will not be silenced by the fudge. They'll be joined by people who rightly believe the 'establishment' has lied to them and not followed what the voters' voted for.
In the meantime, immigrants will continue to be blamed for everything.
EFTA/EEA might be making the worst of a bad job. But it'll be storing up trouble in the medium- and long-term. It might even be disastrous.
The sensible wing of the leavers are not the people to worry about.
In the near term immigration will go down anyway, we are being seen as a hostile environment for immigrants and it is likely that economic growth will slow.
We have an opportunity to change this country for the better in the long term. Let's not throw it away by chasing an impossible policy of pulling up the drawbridge.
They also take time - education in particular takes decades to work through the system. In the meantime we're up sh*t creek; and that assumes such reforms actually work.
It will also severely damage the tech industry; as you say, the UK's seen as a hostile environment already, and the industry relies on educated immigrants. But that's what we voted for. Leavers were warned.
"we are being seen as a hostile environment for immigrants"
And that sums up my point. Hostile. And the people who are most hostile will only be much more hostile when they rightly feel they've been betrayed.
"Let's not throw it away by chasing an impossible policy of pulling up the drawbridge."
If you think it's an impossible policy, you should have voted remain instead of leave. Because that's what leave were selling.0 -
Great great grandfather, so noSandyRentool said:
Is that enough for an EU passport?Pulpstar said:
I'm more Belgium than Welsh, 1/16 Belgium herefoxinsoxuk said:Crowd singing "Are you watching Ingerland?"
My dilute Welsh blood is coursing through my veins. 0 -
in your dreams only....Pulpstar said:
PM Fox, LOTO Corbyn. Hmm,.MaxPB said:
Yes, Crabb is the safe option. Fox as well since he would get beaten.Pulpstar said:
Surely Crabb is the safe choice for tactical voting, seeing as he will clearly fold to May ?AndyJS said:
I have a horrible feeling we might end up with tactical voting from May supporters to ensure Gove makes it through instead of Leadsom.SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.0 -
1/8 Welsh here; but sufficient!Pulpstar said:
I'm more Belgium than Welsh, 1/16 Belgium herefoxinsoxuk said:Crowd singing "Are you watching Ingerland?"
My dilute Welsh blood is coursing through my veins.0 -
No swearingPulpstar said:
I'm more Belgium than Welsh, 1/16 Belgium herefoxinsoxuk said:Crowd singing "Are you watching Ingerland?"
My dilute Welsh blood is coursing through my veins.0 -
Guido says 111 votes gets you straight to the final.AndyJS said:
I meant in the final round if it's between May, Gove and Leadsom. May will probably have more than enough support to ensure an easy passage to the final two. It'll be between Gove and Leadsom, with May supporters believing they have a better chance of winning with the membership if they're against Gove. Therefore some of May's supporters vote for Gove in the final round to stop Leadsom.Pulpstar said:
Surely Crabb is the safe choice for tactical voting, seeing as he will clearly fold to May ?AndyJS said:
I have a horrible feeling we might end up with tactical voting from May supporters to ensure Gove makes it through instead of Leadsom.SandyRentool said:1. Why are Mayites afraid of a run off against Leadsom?
2. What the feck is going on with the PLP? Surely they can make a deal with a Corbynite on the ballot and we can get on with the ballot.
Can those 111 MPs keep voting for the rest of the contest? If its a secret ballot it should be possible.
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Call me old fashioned and naive, but in the current atmosphere I reckon that May will want to win without creating any cause of future complaints from potential critics.
And anyway I think they will still remember 2001 when IDS used his supporters to 'fix' the final two and came within a whisker of cocking it up. I wonder also if he wishes that he had done more to demonstrate the extent of his parliamentary support - hiding it for short term purposes made it easier for his critics a couple of years later...0 -
Great piece by Mr Brind. Thanks for you analysis - all very sensible, and even as a Tory, I hope Labour follow you advise successfully and effectively.0
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Should be 2-2. How did he miss that???0
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King on for Robson-Kanu please (or Ramsey!)0
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If Theresa May does indeed become Tory Leader and Prime Minister as appears likely, do PBers agree with me that this is likely to improve the chances of a woman succeeding Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader?
Just a few short days ago HenryG's pick, Lisa Nandy, was quoted at short single digit odds to win this prize, but has since drifted out to 30 with Betfair - is she perhaps worth another look at these odds?0 -
Fellani misses a sitter - some things never change0
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Well the City which is the heart of the UK economy depends on freedom of movement, so it will have to be retained somehowTykejohnno said:
Come to my area of living and see what freedom of movement is bringing,bet you wouldn't live here.HYUFD said:
If freedom of movement is retained, as I hope it is, Farage will look to capitaliseTykejohnno said:
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.0 -
Skilled professionals are not going to be blocked by a points based immigration system.HYUFD said:
Well the City which is the heart of the UK economy depends on freedom of movement, so it will have to be retained somehowTykejohnno said:
Come to my area of living and see what freedom of movement is bringing,bet you wouldn't live here.HYUFD said:
If freedom of movement is retained, as I hope it is, Farage will look to capitaliseTykejohnno said:
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.
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No, leave was leaving the EU. Nothing more than that. If you want to read into their guff about immigration and money for the NHS that's up to you. As I said earlier, the question asked whether we should leave the EU, not whether we should restrict migration. If those who want that are upset they can continue to campaign for it and get a new referendum on ending free movement.JosiasJessop said:Yes, we should do all those things. In fact we could have done most of that years ago inside the EU. But we didn't, partly because the solutions are not obvious or easy. Hence the hideous 20%-odd rate of illiteracy and innumeracy which has been constant for many decades. I like your unfounded optimism you can fix these problems easily and quickly.
They also take time - education in particular takes decades to work through the system. In the meantime we're up sh*t creek; and that assumes such reforms actually work.
It will also severely damage the tech industry; as you say, the UK's seen as a hostile environment already, and the industry relies on educated immigrants. But that's what we voted for. Leavers were warned.
"we are being seen as a hostile environment for immigrants"
And that sums up my point. Hostile. And the people who are most hostile will only be much more hostile when they rightly feel they've been betrayed.
"Let's not throw it away by chasing an impossible policy of pulling up the drawbridge."
If you think it's an impossible policy, you should have voted remain instead of leave. Because that's what leave were selling.
If it went to a vote, I'm confident that at least 60% would support keeping free movement and the single market. Remember only half of leave voters named immigration as their priority.0 -
They would need to sweep most of Essex and Kent, Lincolnshire and much of East Anglia, a significant part of the south west and working class industrial towns in the north and midlands to get that total, difficult under FPTP but not impossible. Even 102 MPs though would not be enough to block freedom of movementSandyRentool said:
102 seats for UKIP?HYUFD said:
If freedom of movement is retained, as I hope it is, Farage will look to capitaliseTykejohnno said:
Only a matter of time before Farage joins the Tories ;-)Richard_Tyndall said:
The natural end to a party that has achieved its aims. As I said before the referendum for me and many other members UKIP ceases to have any purpose once it has achieved its goal of our withdrawal from the EU.MarkSenior said:Meanwhile UKIP meltdown continues .
One councillor on East Sussex CC defects to Conservatives
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Conservatives ( interesting that they have taken him back as they previously kicked him out when charged with theft )
One councillor on both Glos CC and Forest Of Dean DC defects to Independent .
Come on Wales.0
