Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
if May does win with a Leadsom fight off,what chances of leadsom becoming the Chancellor of the Exchequer ? All women top team.
Only Theresa May can answer that. It's certainly something being discussed amongst members and MPs, and it obviously would have some advantages in terms of political balance. I can't claim any particular insight, but FWIW my expectation is that Theresa would think that she's not experienced enough.
Leadsom was 2/1 fav with ladbrokes to be next CoE when i last looked this aft.
Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
Don't see why Leadsome would drop out with those numbers.
if May does win with a Leadsom fight off,what chances of leadsom becoming the Chancellor of the Exchequer ? All women top team.
Only Theresa May can answer that. It's certainly something being discussed amongst members and MPs, and it obviously would have some advantages in terms of political balance. I can't claim any particular insight, but FWIW my expectation is that Theresa would think that she's not experienced enough.
Hammond is the dull, boring, safe pair of hands we need at chancellor.
Have I missed some news item or other? Gove's price has moved out from 13 to a no-hoper 20 with Betfair over the past 3 hours for no apparent reason that I can see.
More people have found out that he is a nasty piece of work. As a Labour supporter, I would like him to win but I want a compromise through EEA/FoM.
Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
Don't see why Leadsome would drop out with those numbers.
Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
Why on earth would Leadsom drop out in that scenario? She's probably already guaranteed to get at least 40% with the membership and with a good campaign might get even closer.
Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
Why on earth would Leadsom drop out in that scenario? She's probably already guaranteed to get at least 40% with the membership and with a good campaign might get even closer.
Indeed, Leadsom must be the true Brexiter choice, with or without Gove.
if May does win with a Leadsom fight off,what chances of leadsom becoming the Chancellor of the Exchequer ? All women top team.
Only Theresa May can answer that. It's certainly something being discussed amongst members and MPs, and it obviously would have some advantages in terms of political balance. I can't claim any particular insight, but FWIW my expectation is that Theresa would think that she's not experienced enough.
Hammond is the dull, boring, safe pair of hands we need at chancellor.
7/1 ladbrokes
I very much hope we can do better than that. and I certainly don't like those odds, but then what do I know?
Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
Don't see why Leadsome would drop out with those numbers.
"Jam today"? May could offer her No.11 on condition she drops out.
But just for the sake of argument, say Leadsome comes second, a long way behind May, and then drops out, Gove is in third place, and the person in fourth place also drops out, so it's only May and Gove left in. Surely Gove won't take it to the party?
I think there could be a new prime minister by Wednesday.
Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
Don't see why Leadsome would drop out with those numbers.
For the good of the nation?
But surely she does not see that the Remainer winning is good for the nation.
Say the result of the first ballot is something like this:
May 190 Leadsom 70 Gove 30 Crabb 20 Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
Don't see why Leadsome would drop out with those numbers.
For the good of the nation?
But surely she does not see that the Remainer winning is good for the nation.
The story of the last week is not that Gove knifed Johnson but that both knifed the country and has left it to others to clear up their mess.
That is why, in a funny sort of way, I want Gove to win !
Good news is that eliminating the deficit is no longer the Conservatives' aim. Such a hypocritical party !
Of course, in the meantime, they borrowed more than all the Labour governments put together.
I was very sceptical of remains' project fear - because I thought if something was potentially so bad then why would any sane government ask the question. Once I reached that point, I knew no matter the outcome they'd f*cked up. Brexit a convienient scapegoat for everything both brexit and non brexit related !
if May does win with a Leadsom fight off,what chances of leadsom becoming the Chancellor of the Exchequer ? All women top team.
Only Theresa May can answer that. It's certainly something being discussed amongst members and MPs, and it obviously would have some advantages in terms of political balance. I can't claim any particular insight, but FWIW my expectation is that Theresa would think that she's not experienced enough.
Hammond is the dull, boring, safe pair of hands we need at chancellor.
7/1 ladbrokes
I very much hope we can do better than that. and I certainly don't like those odds, but then what do I know?
*** Shrugs ***
I'm on at 14s from ages back. I can see him being chancellor for either Leadsome or May to be perfectly honest. 7s perhaps not so attractive though.
I agree our heroes don't have to be saints but reading the accounts of the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1920 and also his actions in the Middle Eats and Russia I have to say Churchill does fall a long way short of someone to be admired.
Currently reading Jenkins' excellent one-volume biography of Churchill - unlike Jenkins' autoniography (which is worthy and turgid), he feels able to comment analytically and sometimes witily about him. Apparently he opposed a ban on poison gas in WW1 since he believed it favoured the allies as the prevailing wind was from the west. (Mind you, I'm not sure that we're right to consider one form of killing people as hideous while others are fine.)
He was a great orator and a courageous man at a time when Britain hgappened to need precisely that combination. His judgment was often crap and he was erratic and self-centered and as you say by no means admirable in all his judgments, but right about the one big thing.
'Of course, in the meantime, they borrowed more than all the Labour governments put together.'
After the last Labour government had given us the worst recession for 60 years.
You should say more than that. The last Labour government created recession in 22 out of 24 OECD countries at the same time.
It also bankrupted Lehman Brothers, brought in TARP in the USA, etc., etc., and brought interest rates down all over the world to such low figures that in 8 years since then it has not been increased.
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
'Of course, in the meantime, they borrowed more than all the Labour governments put together.'
After the last Labour government had given us the worst recession for 60 years.
Quite. I don't get the argument, either borrowing is bad (as Surbiton's message implies), or austerity is bad. Make your mind up
Well that's obvious!
Labour borrowing = 'investment' Tory borrowing = 'failure'
Labour cuts = 'good housekeeping' Tory cuts = 'Austerity'
Really!
As long as the trajectory is in the right direction, I am comfortable with running a deficit for a few years longer. I will object if the deficit starts to rise though. Given the change of tack, I think GO should be moved elsewhere, maybe to HO/FO?
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
Experienced in Westminster maybe. What about real world experience?
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
Experienced in Westminster maybe. What about real world experience?
I think the point is it's not an ideal time to learn on the job.....
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
Experienced in Westminster maybe. What about real world experience?
May:
Between 1977 and 1983 May worked at the Bank of England, and from 1985 to 1997 as a financial consultant and senior advisor in International Affairs at the Association for Payment Clearing Services. She served as a councillor for the London Borough of Merton from 1986 to 1994, where she was Chairman of Education (1988–90) and Deputy Group Leader and Housing Spokesman (1992–94). In the 1992 general election May stood unsuccessfully for the seat of North West Durham and subsequently failed to win the 1994 Barking by-election. In the 1997 general election May was elected Conservative MP for Maidenhead.
Leadsome:
Leadsom worked in the financial sector for BZW, Barclays Bank – where she was Financial Institutions Director from 1993 to 1997 – and was Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) between 1997 and 1999. She was Head of Corporate Governance and Senior Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999 to 2009.[3][7]
Prior to becoming an MP in 2010, Leadsom was a Councillor on South Oxfordshire District Council between 2003 and 2007.[3][8] She contested Knowsley South constituency in the 2005 general election[3][8] and was a member of the Conservative A-List.[9]
So May had two decades work experience before entering Parliament (vs Leadsome's two and a bit) and a lot more experience in local politics.......
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
Experienced in Westminster maybe. What about real world experience?
I think the point is it's not an ideal time to learn on the job.....
Whoever gets it will need to learn some things on the job.
OT: my reading is that people are joining Labour (and possibly other parties) as part of a post-Referendum reaction. It does not necessarily mean that they are Corbynites. I doubt he'll get 59.5% again.
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
Experienced in Westminster maybe. What about real world experience?
I think the point is it's not an ideal time to learn on the job.....
Whoever gets it will need to learn some things on the job.
Yes, but the less to learn the better, given the challenges we face, surely?
A centre-right thinktank has predicted Scotland would become “Greece without the sun” if it voted for independence, after Michael Gove hinted he would cut Scottish funding if he becomes prime minister.
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
Experienced in Westminster maybe. What about real world experience?
I think the point is it's not an ideal time to learn on the job.....
Whoever gets it will need to learn some things on the job.
Yes, but the less to learn the better, given the challenges we face, surely?
I'd rather have someone with less experience but more upside potential for these tasks, than a mediocrity with loads of experience.
I don't think May is a mediocrity, but I do think Leadsome has way more upside.
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
Experienced in Westminster maybe. What about real world experience?
I think the point is it's not an ideal time to learn on the job.....
Whoever gets it will need to learn some things on the job.
Yes, but the less to learn the better, given the challenges we face, surely?
I don't think May is a mediocrity, but I do think Leadsome has way more upside.
You may be right - but its too soon to say - if the Tories were in Opposition it would be a different story - but its the next PM we're looking at, and getting that wrong would be long remembered......and punished.
IDS endorses Leadsome, if that helps anyone, one way or the other......
Jeremy Corbyn has shown admirable toughness and resilience this week and he is the man the country needs at this time of Chilcot.Maybe that's what it's all about.If there's an election for Labour leader,bring it on but why not go further as Jeremy himself has suggested,and bring in annual elections of Leader as a rule.Labour MPs need to use the agreed procedures,not bully-boy tactics.As for these "polls",where is the evidence this isn't just "push-polling"?Why don't they publish these outliers and why don't they own up to who might be paying for them?The PLP has been fed manure.
Comments
May 190
Leadsom 70
Gove 30
Crabb 20
Fox 20
I'm not interested enough to have worked out feasible figures, but the idea is that May wins with a clear majority of all votes cast, and Gove achieves no higher than a weak third place. That seems to me to be what will happen.
Then say Leadsom, Crabb and Fox all drop out. Perhaps they even all tell their supporters to unite around May.
Will Gove really take the view that "the battle is just beginning" and insist on a ballot among the membership?
A picnic against Brexit.
And we wonder why Leave won....
Preferably, we forget to send the Art.50 letter !
That is why, in a funny sort of way, I want Gove to win !
Good news is that eliminating the deficit is no longer the Conservatives' aim. Such a hypocritical party !
Of course, in the meantime, they borrowed more than all the Labour governments put together.
*** Shrugs ***
But just for the sake of argument, say Leadsome comes second, a long way behind May, and then drops out, Gove is in third place, and the person in fourth place also drops out, so it's only May and Gove left in. Surely Gove won't take it to the party?
I think there could be a new prime minister by Wednesday.
'Of course, in the meantime, they borrowed more than all the Labour governments put together.'
After the last Labour government had given us the worst recession for 60 years.
He was a great orator and a courageous man at a time when Britain hgappened to need precisely that combination. His judgment was often crap and he was erratic and self-centered and as you say by no means admirable in all his judgments, but right about the one big thing.
It also bankrupted Lehman Brothers, brought in TARP in the USA, etc., etc., and brought interest rates down all over the world to such low figures that in 8 years since then it has not been increased.
Very powerful government indeed, you moron !
May: 19
Leadsome: 6
Years on Front Bench:
May: 17
Leadsome: 1
Age:
May: 59
Leadsome: 53
I don't doubt that Leadsome is a good candidate - and may be an effective successor to May - but as we're looking for a PM as well as leader of the Conservative Party, May is clearly the more experienced candidate.
'Quite. I don't get the argument, either borrowing is bad (as Surbiton's message implies), or austerity is bad. Make your mind up '
Surbiton always manages to contradict himself without realising it.
Translated Labour borrowing good Tory bad,Labour austerity good Tory bad.
Borrowing would have been even higher if Labour had won in 2010 with Brown's refusal to make any cuts.
Labour borrowing = 'investment'
Tory borrowing = 'failure'
Labour cuts = 'good housekeeping'
Tory cuts = 'Austerity'
Really!
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/y/12/Politics.html
Yes - 6.2
No - 1.17
May has explicitly ruled out a GE - in terms clear enough I don't think she could backtrack.
Has Leadsom said anything? (And Gove?)
Between 1977 and 1983 May worked at the Bank of England, and from 1985 to 1997 as a financial consultant and senior advisor in International Affairs at the Association for Payment Clearing Services. She served as a councillor for the London Borough of Merton from 1986 to 1994, where she was Chairman of Education (1988–90) and Deputy Group Leader and Housing Spokesman (1992–94). In the 1992 general election May stood unsuccessfully for the seat of North West Durham and subsequently failed to win the 1994 Barking by-election. In the 1997 general election May was elected Conservative MP for Maidenhead.
Leadsome:
Leadsom worked in the financial sector for BZW, Barclays Bank – where she was Financial Institutions Director from 1993 to 1997 – and was Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) between 1997 and 1999. She was Head of Corporate Governance and Senior Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999 to 2009.[3][7]
Prior to becoming an MP in 2010, Leadsom was a Councillor on South Oxfordshire District Council between 2003 and 2007.[3][8] She contested Knowsley South constituency in the 2005 general election[3][8] and was a member of the Conservative A-List.[9]
So May had two decades work experience before entering Parliament (vs Leadsome's two and a bit) and a lot more experience in local politics.......
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/02/scotland-risks-becoming-greece-without-sun-thinktank-gove
Well, that'll help see the Union through a sticky patch......
I don't think May is a mediocrity, but I do think Leadsome has way more upside.
IDS endorses Leadsome, if that helps anyone, one way or the other......