politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The skids are under Jeremy. Members should get the chance t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The skids are under Jeremy. Members should get the chance to put him out of his misery.
Don Brind argues against the Labour leader stepping down in favour of a unity candidate.Jeremy Corbyn must be ousted by the members if Labour’s credibility with the voters is to have any chance of being rescued. The idea of him standing down in favour of a unity candidate is understandable – but wrong.
Comments
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But will the PLP put up a candidate against him?0
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Second, and thanks Don!0
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Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
Mr. Abroad, because it was meant to happen yesterday, and didn't.0
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Stunts like this might not help Corbyn's position.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/7489244052506787840 -
Interesting to see the report on Hackney North, I hadn't heard about that0
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Mr. W, one hopes May deploys her massive support tactically to nobble Gove in the first round. Otherwise, Fox is done for out of the gate.0
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As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
FPT
Outstanding indeed - For a moving tribute, it's up there with the poppies at the Tower.Scott_P said:
It is outstanding. I have been retweeting all dayJonathan said:This is simply brilliant. Gives me goosebumps.
https://becausewearehere.co.uk/wearehere/0 -
I basically agree with Don Brind but there is one big negative of a contested election that must be thought about: it takes a lot of time.
The Conservatives are well-advanced on their own leadership battle. Labour risk being caught with their pants down if a new Conservative leader immediately decides to test her authority with the electorate to get a new mandate.0 -
Stop Trump !0
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I'm not sure it matters. But I think May simply wants to put the distance between her and the rest.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, one hopes May deploys her massive support tactically to nobble Gove in the first round. Otherwise, Fox is done for out of the gate.
May's opponents are scrabbling about to be a distant second and from then not embarrass themselves as the voting continues.
Depending on May's lead in the later rounds they may decide to call it quits before the members get to vote.0 -
She is reading your emails as you type.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
Someone in Labour needs to be watching how the blue team do it. Process well under way with five candidates (and one conspicuous by his absence) and voting starts on Tuesday.
Labour are all talking about a challenge, but all we've seen is a pile of resignations, a meaningless vote of confidence and a load of muttering about how someone should challenge him. Oh, and non-MP David Miliband at 8/1, what the...0 -
Isn't the reason Corbyn is hanging on and will continue to hang on is that it is 'for the good of the socialist revolution' so to speak?
And he is doing his version of blood, toil, tears and sweat.0 -
Agreed - see my post at 6.12JackW said:
I'm not sure it matters. But I think May simply wants to put the distance between her and the rest.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, one hopes May deploys her massive support tactically to nobble Gove in the first round. Otherwise, Fox is done for out of the gate.
May's opponents are scrabbling about to be a distant second and from then not embarrass themselves as the voting continues.
Depending on May's lead in the later rounds they may decide to call it quits before the members get to vote.0 -
That was Angela Eagle. She may be under pressure to make way for someone else. No - I don't know who, but I doubt many in the PLP think she's their best shot.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Abroad, because it was meant to happen yesterday, and didn't.
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There have been votes against Corbyn in a number of London CLPs. Another was in the St Pancras & Holborn one, right next door to Islington North.kle4 said:Interesting to see the report on Hackney North, I hadn't heard about that
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I thought I read yesterday that 40 odd of Bojo’s supporters moved to Gove when he announced he was standing? – must have got the wrong of the stick?JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
I can say I definitely do not want COEdr_spyn said:
She is reading your emails as you type.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
That is absolutely brilliant. Very well done indeed to whoever (very quietly) organised it.SimonStClare said:FPT
Outstanding indeed - For a moving tribute, it's up there with the poppies at the Tower.Scott_P said:
It is outstanding. I have been retweeting all dayJonathan said:This is simply brilliant. Gives me goosebumps.
https://becausewearehere.co.uk/wearehere/
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Yes. Excellent analysis by Don which may change my view that Labour are better off trying to smoke him out. One thing is certain - Alastair is right - this cannot be allowed to drag on. Call the challenge Tuesday, then align with Tories and declare on 9 Sep.AlastairMeeks said:I basically agree with Don Brind but there is one big negative of a contested election that must be thought about: it takes a lot of time.
The Conservatives are well-advanced on their own leadership battle. Labour risk being caught with their pants down if a new Conservative leader immediately decides to test her authority with the electorate to get a new mandate.0 -
Can we learn to spell her name correctly? Theresadr_spyn said:
She is reading your emails as you type.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
She's what 16/17 MPs from being guaranteed a place in the final twoJackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
Corbyn would have been long gone, if indeed ever elected, had he been a Tory. Labour just haven't got the stomach for this kind of stuff. They are all heart and no brain, but 'twas ever thus.Sandpit said:Someone in Labour needs to be watching how the blue team do it. Process well under way with five candidates (and one conspicuous by his absence) and voting starts on Tuesday.
Labour are all talking about a challenge, but all we've seen is a pile of resignations, a meaningless vote of confidence and a load of muttering about how someone should challenge him. Oh, and non-MP David Miliband at 8/1, what the...
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https://twitter.com/NaheemSays/status/748928507674320897
KEEPCorbyn rally in Manchester...
Liverpool's having one tomorrow.0 -
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.0 -
Public declarations don't necessarily mean votes BUT given the number of undeclareds...TheScreamingEagles said:
She's what 16/17 MPs from being guaranteed a place in the final twoJackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
"May" is easierJobabob said:
Can we learn to spell her name correctly? Theresadr_spyn said:
She is reading your emails as you type.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
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@TSE These are public nominations. So absolutely no guarantees about what happens in the privacy of the vote...0
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I take it you like voting for a heartless Party....Jason said:
Corbyn would have been long gone, if indeed ever elected, had he been a Tory. Labour just haven't got the stomach for this kind of stuff. They are all heart and no brain, but 'twas ever thus.Sandpit said:Someone in Labour needs to be watching how the blue team do it. Process well under way with five candidates (and one conspicuous by his absence) and voting starts on Tuesday.
Labour are all talking about a challenge, but all we've seen is a pile of resignations, a meaningless vote of confidence and a load of muttering about how someone should challenge him. Oh, and non-MP David Miliband at 8/1, what the...
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http://www teresamay org uk/
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Yes, I think the only one that scares me is Leadsom, she really does seem like a true to the cause Leaver. If she can ignite that base instinct in the membership she might just win, but hopefully she is just playing for a big role in May's Cabinet.JackW said:
I'm not sure it matters. But I think May simply wants to put the distance between her and the rest.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, one hopes May deploys her massive support tactically to nobble Gove in the first round. Otherwise, Fox is done for out of the gate.
May's opponents are scrabbling about to be a distant second and from then not embarrass themselves as the voting continues.
Depending on May's lead in the later rounds they may decide to call it quits before the members get to vote.0 -
TheWhiteRabbit said:
Public declarations don't necessarily mean votes BUT given the number of undeclareds...TheScreamingEagles said:
She's what 16/17 MPs from being guaranteed a place in the final twoJackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
Very true.AlastairMeeks said:@TSE These are public nominations. So absolutely no guarantees about what happens in the privacy of the vote...
And of course, MPs can switch their voted in the second and subsequent ballots.0 -
Warming up for the October Revolution following the Brexit-triggered economic collapse and rejection of the Tory party by the voters.RodCrosby said:https://twitter.com/NaheemSays/status/748928507674320897
KEEPCorbyn rally in Manchester...
Liverpool's having one tomorrow.0 -
The Tories
He wouldn't have been elected. Had the Tories lost in 2015, it'd have been a Shadow Cabinet-heavy line-up, plus Boris. No space for an outsider from the right-wing fringe.Jason said:
Corbyn would have been long gone, if indeed ever elected, had he been a Tory. Labour just haven't got the stomach for this kind of stuff. They are all heart and no brain, but 'twas ever thus.Sandpit said:Someone in Labour needs to be watching how the blue team do it. Process well under way with five candidates (and one conspicuous by his absence) and voting starts on Tuesday.
Labour are all talking about a challenge, but all we've seen is a pile of resignations, a meaningless vote of confidence and a load of muttering about how someone should challenge him. Oh, and non-MP David Miliband at 8/1, what the...
Also worth noting that if Labour had the Tories' rules, Corbyn wouldn't have been elected in the first place (probably Burnham; if not, Cooper), and would without question now be out.0 -
I suspect at least half of those people of being members of the Conservative PartyRodCrosby said:https://twitter.com/NaheemSays/status/748928507674320897
KEEPCorbyn rally in Manchester...
Liverpool's having one tomorrow.0 -
ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/7489265545000099840 -
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.
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Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
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She herself ruled out having an election, which is a bit of a shame as we all love a good election night!Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.0 -
With the declarations at 94 Theresa + 22 Crabb and the likelyhood most of those would go to Theresa it is to be hoped that wise heads in the party put the National interest first and nominate Theresa unopposed so that we can have a cabinet and government in place by the end of this month. Would be well received by the Country and the markets. The nonsense that has been going on needs to be put behind us0
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Going for EEA/EFTA will keep UKIP relevant. One of the main reasons that it's a bad idea.Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
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I think potential Gove supporters are presently withholding support for fear of being seen as an ally of such a traitorous pig dog .... copyright TSESimonStClare said:
I thought I read yesterday that 40 odd of Bojo’s supporters moved to Gove when he announced he was standing? – must have got the wrong of the stick?JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
They may also be extremely concerned at being roped into a Gove event and then miss their summer holidays.0 -
It would be a masterstroke to have an election with Labour in the midst of a leadership contest.Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.0 -
What we're seeing, and have been seeing for some time with NEC nominations, is that the ABC camp is better-organised at CLP meetings. That's not totally surprising, as we know that they have a larger share of longstanding members, and if you're a longstanding member then by definition you have a certain tolerance of branch and CLP meetings which eludes many new members. You may even attend them.
But I'd be wary of extrapolating that to the membership and £3ers as a whole - even the least active member is quite capable of sending back a vote. The YouGov looks about right to me. The missing element is a persuasive challenger (or, so far, any challenger at all). A strong challenger who put up a persuasive platform could well win. But I don't think the membership will buy someone running predominantly on a Dump Jeremy ticket.
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Hear, hear.Big_G_NorthWales said:With the declarations at 94 Theresa + 22 Crabb and the likelyhood most of those would go to Theresa it is to be hoped that wise heads in the party put the National interest first and nominate Theresa unopposed so that we can have a cabinet and government in place by the end of this month. Would be well received by the Country and the markets. The nonsense that has been going on needs to be put behind us
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not in terms of their current UKIP cohort - I make it a 100% loss.RobD said:
Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
[I find your avatar a little disconcerting... might be time to get Ozzy's 'so money supermarket' photo back out on mine to offset it]0 -
A masterstroke of Osborne master strategist proportions?rcs1000 said:
It would be a masterstroke to have an election with Labour in the midst of a leadership contest.Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.0 -
Not particularly, but even if I did, it's a million times more preferable to being brainless.Innocent_Abroad said:
I take it you like voting for a heartless Party....Jason said:
Corbyn would have been long gone, if indeed ever elected, had he been a Tory. Labour just haven't got the stomach for this kind of stuff. They are all heart and no brain, but 'twas ever thus.Sandpit said:Someone in Labour needs to be watching how the blue team do it. Process well under way with five candidates (and one conspicuous by his absence) and voting starts on Tuesday.
Labour are all talking about a challenge, but all we've seen is a pile of resignations, a meaningless vote of confidence and a load of muttering about how someone should challenge him. Oh, and non-MP David Miliband at 8/1, what the...
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No. The Tories just have much better rules.Jason said:
Corbyn would have been long gone, if indeed ever elected, had he been a Tory. Labour just haven't got the stomach for this kind of stuff. They are all heart and no brain, but 'twas ever thus.Sandpit said:Someone in Labour needs to be watching how the blue team do it. Process well under way with five candidates (and one conspicuous by his absence) and voting starts on Tuesday.
Labour are all talking about a challenge, but all we've seen is a pile of resignations, a meaningless vote of confidence and a load of muttering about how someone should challenge him. Oh, and non-MP David Miliband at 8/1, what the...0 -
Heh.. I was thinking in proportion of the 100 MPs predicted, only a 1% loss on the target figureScrapheap_as_was said:
not in terms of their current UKIP cohort - I make it a 100% loss.RobD said:
Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984 0 -
I walked past them earlier, they have some very catchy tunes.rcs1000 said:
I suspect at least half of those people of being members of the Conservative PartyRodCrosby said:https://twitter.com/NaheemSays/status/748928507674320897
KEEPCorbyn rally in Manchester...
Liverpool's having one tomorrow.
Ruined my plans to have dinner in Piccadilly Gardens.0 -
And well over half yet to declare a preference.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's what 16/17 MPs from being guaranteed a place in the final twoJackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
I fully agree that we need a contested leadership election. However I think that ought to include a candidate from the left other than Corbyn. Same (or similar) policy platform but a different (and better) front (wo)man.
Put them in the mix with a candidate from the soft left, the centre and the right of the party - the best each strand has to offer - and we can have a contest based on policy, safe in the knowledge that all of the candidates have the leadership qualities needed to take them to No. 10.
I can but hope.0 -
How long before PM May faces a leadership challenge from a Leaver over an EEA " Betrayal " ?0
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It was this, or her shoes...Scrapheap_as_was said:
not in terms of their current UKIP cohort - I make it a 100% loss.RobD said:
Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
[I find your avatar a little disconcerting... might be time to get Ozzy's 'so money supermarket' photo back out on mine to offset it]
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Yes the skids are under Carswell and about time. Nothing has pleased him about UKIP since the day he joined. So continuously has he attempted to undermine UKIP policies, that I wonder why he joined in the first place.RobD said:
Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
And will @Scrapheap stop using my name in vain.-1 -
I had friends round for dinner on Wednesday night. They're both longstanding Labour members; she's a senior civil servant, and he's in publishing. They both voted for Corbyn. They both now believe that - while they continue to like him - he would be a disaster electorally. And they're right. Neither will vote for him again.NickPalmer said:What we're seeing, and have been seeing for some time with NEC nominations, is that the ABC camp is better-organised at CLP meetings. That's not totally surprising, as we know that they have a larger share of longstanding members, and if you're a longstanding member then by definition you have a certain tolerance of branch and CLP meetings which eludes many new members. You may even attend them.
But I'd be wary of extrapolating that to the membership and £3ers as a whole - even the least active member is quite capable of sending back a vote. The YouGov looks about right to me. The missing element is a persuasive challenger (or, so far, any challenger at all). A strong challenger who put up a persuasive platform could well win. But I don't think the membership will buy someone running predominantly on a Dump Jeremy ticket.0 -
I'm not sure. I think she'd win but the voters are very fickle right now.Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.0 -
NickPalmer said:
What we're seeing, and have been seeing for some time with NEC nominations, is that the ABC camp is better-organised at CLP meetings. That's not totally surprising, as we know that they have a larger share of longstanding members, and if you're a longstanding member then by definition you have a certain tolerance of branch and CLP meetings which eludes many new members. You may even attend them.
But I'd be wary of extrapolating that to the membership and £3ers as a whole - even the least active member is quite capable of sending back a vote. The YouGov looks about right to me. The missing element is a persuasive challenger (or, so far, any challenger at all). A strong challenger who put up a persuasive platform could well win. But I don't think the membership will buy someone running predominantly on a Dump Jeremy ticket.
You must know Corbyn cannot ever win a GE, nor can anyone whom he nominates to follow him.
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it would also put mensch and that cock richards back in their box which would be a twitter bonus...rcs1000 said:
Hear, hear.Big_G_NorthWales said:With the declarations at 94 Theresa + 22 Crabb and the likelyhood most of those would go to Theresa it is to be hoped that wise heads in the party put the National interest first and nominate Theresa unopposed so that we can have a cabinet and government in place by the end of this month. Would be well received by the Country and the markets. The nonsense that has been going on needs to be put behind us
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As TM has said a Brexiteer will be the chief negotiator that will not happenYellowSubmarine said:How long before PM May faces a leadership challenge from a Leaver over an EEA " Betrayal " ?
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Is this one of their catchy tunes.TheScreamingEagles said:
I walked past them earlier, they have some very catchy tunes.rcs1000 said:
I suspect at least half of those people of being members of the Conservative PartyRodCrosby said:https://twitter.com/NaheemSays/status/748928507674320897
KEEPCorbyn rally in Manchester...
Liverpool's having one tomorrow.
Ruined my plans to have dinner in Piccadilly Gardens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgmMYsjCCJ00 -
Agreed. Time to stop this nonsense.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
Only if the Conservatives came out with an increased majority. Want to gamble on that? Not gamble money, mind, the country.rcs1000 said:
It would be a masterstroke to have an election with Labour in the midst of a leadership contest.Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.0 -
Another possible reason for a quick election - do it before the people realise (The Tsipras strategy), But I sense little appetite for that.YellowSubmarine said:How long before PM May faces a leadership challenge from a Leaver over an EEA " Betrayal " ?
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Wrong - you should have seen the Corbynista journalist headbanger on This Week last night... they are not of this world. Turns out Thatcher caused the Brexit vote too.SquareRoot said:NickPalmer said:What we're seeing, and have been seeing for some time with NEC nominations, is that the ABC camp is better-organised at CLP meetings. That's not totally surprising, as we know that they have a larger share of longstanding members, and if you're a longstanding member then by definition you have a certain tolerance of branch and CLP meetings which eludes many new members. You may even attend them.
But I'd be wary of extrapolating that to the membership and £3ers as a whole - even the least active member is quite capable of sending back a vote. The YouGov looks about right to me. The missing element is a persuasive challenger (or, so far, any challenger at all). A strong challenger who put up a persuasive platform could well win. But I don't think the membership will buy someone running predominantly on a Dump Jeremy ticket.
You must know Corbyn cannot ever win a GE, nor can anyone whom he nominates to follow him.0 -
So the Corbynistas are bone idle entryists who don't even turn up to meetings. Thanks for confirming that Nick!NickPalmer said:What we're seeing, and have been seeing for some time with NEC nominations, is that the ABC camp is better-organised at CLP meetings. That's not totally surprising, as we know that they have a larger share of longstanding members, and if you're a longstanding member then by definition you have a certain tolerance of branch and CLP meetings which eludes many new members. You may even attend them.
But I'd be wary of extrapolating that to the membership and £3ers as a whole - even the least active member is quite capable of sending back a vote. The YouGov looks about right to me. The missing element is a persuasive challenger (or, so far, any challenger at all). A strong challenger who put up a persuasive platform could well win. But I don't think the membership will buy someone running predominantly on a Dump Jeremy ticket.0 -
I dont see the situation is the same. Cameron made it quite clear before the election that he would not see out this parliament.felix said:
I'm not sure. I think she'd win but the voters are very fickle right now.Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.0 -
Gerald Howarthrcs1000 said:
There are at least seven idiots in the Conservative Party.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
On 20 May 2013, whilst debating the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Bill, Howarth warned of "the aggressive homosexual community who see this as but a stepping stone to something even further." Howarth failed to clarify what the something further would be.
Robert Goodwill
In 2000 whilst working as a Conservative MEP, Goodwill sparked controversy when he was quoted as saying "I fly from Leeds/Bradford to Brussels and we get a set fee of around £500, but if I buy a cheaper ticket, economy class for about £160 and £250, I can pocket the difference and, as a capitalist, also as a British Conservative, I see it as a challenge to buy cheap tickets and make some profit on the system"
David Nuttall
In 2013 Nuttall was one of four MPs who camped outside Parliament in a move to facilitate parliamentary debate on what they called an “Alternative Queen’s Speech”—an attempt to show what a future Conservative government might deliver. Some 42 policies were listed including reintroduction of the death penalty and conscription, privatizing the BBC, banning the burka in public places and preparation to leave the European Union.
Then again openly gay Iain Stewart was shortlisted by Stonewall for MP of the year in 2012, and he is a fox supporter..0 -
I don't follow. How does a Brexiter in charge of negotiating the " Betrayal " stop those psychologically disposed to feeling betrayed feeling betrayed when they have been " Betrayed " ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
As TM has said a Brexiteer will be the chief negotiator that will not happenYellowSubmarine said:How long before PM May faces a leadership challenge from a Leaver over an EEA " Betrayal " ?
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He's clearly schilling for Juncker.MikeK said:
Yes the skids are under Carswell and about time. Nothing has pleased him about UKIP since the day he joined. So continuously has he attempted to undermine UKIP policies, that I wonder why he joined in the first place.RobD said:
Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
And will @Scrapheap stop using my name in vain.0 -
That's looking like very wishful thinking right now. You're completely right of course, but until someone in the PLP gets off their arse and starts collecting signatures, it ain't gonna happen!SandyRentool said:I fully agree that we need a contested leadership election. However I think that ought to include a candidate from the left other than Corbyn. Same (or similar) policy platform but a different (and better) front (wo)man.
Put them in the mix with a candidate from the soft left, the centre and the right of the party - the best each strand has to offer - and we can have a contest based on policy, safe in the knowledge that all of the candidates have the leadership qualities needed to take them to No. 10.
I can but hope.0 -
Well I pass on that oneYellowSubmarine said:
I don't follow. How does a Brexiter in charge of negotiating the " Betrayal " stop those psychologically disposed to feeling betrayed feeling betrayed when they have been " Betrayed " ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
As TM has said a Brexiteer will be the chief negotiator that will not happenYellowSubmarine said:How long before PM May faces a leadership challenge from a Leaver over an EEA " Betrayal " ?
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About 10 years.YellowSubmarine said:How long before PM May faces a leadership challenge from a Leaver over an EEA " Betrayal " ?
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Have you spoken to your Dad, he rang me earlier.rcs1000 said:
He's clearly schilling for Juncker.MikeK said:
Yes the skids are under Carswell and about time. Nothing has pleased him about UKIP since the day he joined. So continuously has he attempted to undermine UKIP policies, that I wonder why he joined in the first place.RobD said:
Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
And will @Scrapheap stop using my name in vain.
Wordpress issues.0 -
There is enough getout of free movement in EEA/ EFTA rules to keep most people happy.williamglenn said:
Going for EEA/EFTA will keep UKIP relevant. One of the main reasons that it's a bad idea.Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
And if in a few years once we are out and have RoW trade deals, if it becomes a nuisance we can reconsider EFTA/EEA again.0 -
Winning elections is so 1997 - and look where that ended up.SquareRoot said:NickPalmer said:What we're seeing, and have been seeing for some time with NEC nominations, is that the ABC camp is better-organised at CLP meetings. That's not totally surprising, as we know that they have a larger share of longstanding members, and if you're a longstanding member then by definition you have a certain tolerance of branch and CLP meetings which eludes many new members. You may even attend them.
But I'd be wary of extrapolating that to the membership and £3ers as a whole - even the least active member is quite capable of sending back a vote. The YouGov looks about right to me. The missing element is a persuasive challenger (or, so far, any challenger at all). A strong challenger who put up a persuasive platform could well win. But I don't think the membership will buy someone running predominantly on a Dump Jeremy ticket.
You must know Corbyn cannot ever win a GE, nor can anyone whom he nominates to follow him.0 -
Blimey = we've been on opposite sides throughout the Brexit saga, and yet now are agreeing and coalescing around a May PM asap.... the power of the Tory party to be at each others throats and then come together... impressive.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Agreed. Time to stop this nonsense.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
Going all a bit Plato with that last bit. People are allowed to quote others otherwise what's the point of the forum?MikeK said:
Yes the skids are under Carswell and about time. Nothing has pleased him about UKIP since the day he joined. So continuously has he attempted to undermine UKIP policies, that I wonder why he joined in the first place.RobD said:
Actually, a relatively small % hit, given the *ahem* ambitious target...Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
And will @Scrapheap stop using my name in vain.0 -
And we were worried the Tory party was split forever!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Blimey = we've been on opposite sides throughout the Brexit saga, and yet now are agreeing and coalescing around a May PM asap.... the power of the Tory party to be at each others throats and then come together... impressive.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Agreed. Time to stop this nonsense.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
PM May must put the national interest first and not indulge in yet another bout of unnecessary uncertainty. The government has the mandate from the people. Let them get on with it.Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts.
Further since WWII all PM's taking office during a term have not called a general election - Eden, Macmillan, Home, Callaghan, Major, Brown and shortly May.0 -
Tory ballot timescale: 1st ballot Tuesday drops one candidate, then Thursday another and we're down to 3 a week from now. So by Tuesday 12th at the latest we will have the two names for the members - earlier if someone drops out during the race.
So, why are there eight weeks for that stage, surely it would be possible to do it in four?
Election postal votes go out about three weeks before, even to overseas voters like me. I'd have no problem getting my vote back in the same timescale, so does anyone know why it's taking so long?
I don't want to see a coronation (see Gordon Brown for why) but taking two months when there's plenty of stuff for the new PM to be doing, seems somewhat self indulgent by the party.0 -
Yes. I voted Corbyn but am open to voting for someone else.NickPalmer said:What we're seeing, and have been seeing for some time with NEC nominations, is that the ABC camp is better-organised at CLP meetings. That's not totally surprising, as we know that they have a larger share of longstanding members, and if you're a longstanding member then by definition you have a certain tolerance of branch and CLP meetings which eludes many new members. You may even attend them.
But I'd be wary of extrapolating that to the membership and £3ers as a whole - even the least active member is quite capable of sending back a vote. The YouGov looks about right to me. The missing element is a persuasive challenger (or, so far, any challenger at all). A strong challenger who put up a persuasive platform could well win. But I don't think the membership will buy someone running predominantly on a Dump Jeremy ticket.
Am I being too optimistic in hoping for candidates to suggest what their plan for brexit is?
I want to know where they stand on single market and immigration- I can't see how we can win without a clear position on those issues... at least Gove has a plan!0 -
If Corbyn runs in a membership ballot yougov shows he would still win, even with a reduced majority and secure his mandate until the next general election. The only viable alternative is McDonnell if Corbyn stands down0
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It is not an a la carte menu !Paul_Bedfordshire said:
There is enough getout of free movement in EEA/ EFTA rules to keep most people happy.williamglenn said:
Going for EEA/EFTA will keep UKIP relevant. One of the main reasons that it's a bad idea.Scrapheap_as_was said:ooer.... Mike K's 100+ UKIP MPs could be about to have a large % hit to that target...
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/748926554500009984
And if in a few years once we are out and have RoW trade deals, if it becomes a nuisance we can reconsider EFTA/EEA again.0 -
I think you've replied to the wrong comment herePaul_Bedfordshire said:
I dont see the situation is the same. Cameron made it quite clear before the election that he would not see out this parliament.felix said:
I'm not sure. I think she'd win but the voters are very fickle right now.Jason said:
If the Tories do give her the crown unopposed, she MUST call an election immediately, and not make the mistake Brown did. This would surely condemn Labour to their biggest ever electoral defeat.JackW said:
If May had a serious challenger I say no.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
But presently it's like a 10,000 metre race with May a lap ahead and the others elbowing each off the track and looking suspiciously at Gove as he reaches for his ancestral skean dhu stuffed down his shorts. 0 -
You are assuming no change during the campaign.HYUFD said:If Corbyn runs in a membership ballot yougov shows he would still win, even with a reduced majority and secure his mandate until the next general election. The only viable alternative is McDonnell if Corbyn stands down
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One example of a possible change came in a poll of members of the Unite union carried out over the past three days. While the union still officially backs Corbyn – its general secretary, Len McCluskey, has said rebel MPs are betraying the party – the poll found that almost half of members believe Corbyn should step down immediately.
Of all Unite members polled, 49% said this should happen, with even 48% of those who said they voted Labour in 2015 agreeing. If there was a new leadership election, 44% of the Labour backers would oppose Corbyn, against 43% who would support him, the survey found.
The poll has a relatively low sample of 775, but makes for difficult reading for the Corbyn camp. Of Labour voters, 61% think Corbyn is doing badly in the job, and only 20% of them think he will ever become prime minister.0 -
Snooper's Charter init.dr_spyn said:
She is reading your emails as you type.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 70 -
I think most of us have the sense to realise that at a time like this you need someone with a good cabinet record, no skeletons and an ability to negoitiate (no skeletons helps here).RobD said:
And we were worried the Tory party was split forever!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Blimey = we've been on opposite sides throughout the Brexit saga, and yet now are agreeing and coalescing around a May PM asap.... the power of the Tory party to be at each others throats and then come together... impressive.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Agreed. Time to stop this nonsense.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As posted earlier it is time for the party to elect Teresa unopposed and get on running the Country.JackW said:Sky News - Nominations Numbers
May 94 .. Crabb 22 .. Gove 18 .. Leadsom 18 .. Fox 7
And she is about as pro EU as corbyn anyway.
Also we have to join EFTA, anything else would be too far too fast and risk the economy which would play into the hands of socialist remainer doom mongers.
And as I said above, there are freedom of movement getouts in EFTA and if it is still a big problem in a few years when we are out of the EU, have RoW trade deals etc, we can look at it again.0 -
Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
I'm starting to think he might lose on a ballot. I wonder if the bunker are too? Cooper vs May would be good. Let's hope the membership come around.DanSmith said:One example of a possible change came in a poll of members of the Unite union carried out over the past three days. While the union still officially backs Corbyn – its general secretary, Len McCluskey, has said rebel MPs are betraying the party – the poll found that almost half of members believe Corbyn should step down immediately.
Of all Unite members polled, 49% said this should happen, with even 48% of those who said they voted Labour in 2015 agreeing. If there was a new leadership election, 44% of the Labour backers would oppose Corbyn, against 43% who would support him, the survey found.
The poll has a relatively low sample of 775, but makes for difficult reading for the Corbyn camp. Of Labour voters, 61% think Corbyn is doing badly in the job, and only 20% of them think he will ever become prime minister.0 -
Gove's Campaign Launch today:
He stressed he “did not want” to be Prime Minister, adding: “Whatever charisma is I don’t have it, whatever glamour may be I don’t think anyone could ever associate me with it.”
What a mess! - I'll give him two days, maximum, before he quits. His political career is over however you look at it, a complete self-destruct job.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw
OoohTheScreamingEagles said:Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, is urging colleagues to step back from the brink in challenging Jeremy Corbyn, warning that a leadership election in which the incumbent stands again could cause untold damage to the party.
Watson is seeking to organise a meeting with Corbyn’s closest advisers to try to agree a negotiated settlement that would see the Labour leader step down voluntarily, thus avoiding an acrimonious and drawn-out battle.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/tom-watson-calls-on-labour-mps-to-prevent-leadership-contest?CMP=share_btn_tw0
