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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Lead

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,220
    AndyJS said:

    Racist? How can Europeans be racist towards other Europeans?
    The article mentions "racist" once - here (And it is a quote from Nigel Farage)

    The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, added: ‘There’s some pretty nasty stuff going on.
    'The general narrative at home is about racist abuse on the streets of Britain, but some of the stuff we’re seeing from Brussels Eurocrats is horrific.’

    No mention of it in the article, and though this is unpleasant it is not 'racism'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,811
    Sandpit said:

    LOL, they're going to throw out their only MP. He'll probably rejoin the Tories under Gove or May anyway.
    If he rejoined on Monday, would he get to vote in the MPs ballot of the leadership election?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    I think Sean might be almost unique on PB in that he has managed to earn the contempt of both sides of the argument.
    I find it useful - makes me feel practically solid and unyielding.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Given that the EU must now realise that Article 50 leaves them open to being held hostage by any members state at any time, we have now created an urgent need to reform the Lisbon Treaty itself. Why not take advantage of it to secure terms on which we could stay full members?

    Sarkozy is peddling the new treaty line. Can't remember where I saw it. Something around five years before foreign workers would be eligible for benefits. I'll see if I can dig it up again.

    The only mechanism that would make me change my mind would be a new treaty that formally enshrines a two bloc Europe. But that's not going to happen, so Brexit it is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,220
    @SeanT Have you considered joining... ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    Sandpit said:

    LOL, they're going to throw out their only MP. He'll probably rejoin the Tories under Gove or May anyway.
    leaving the LibDems as the only party in England not rocked by infighting and division?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is there any reason now why Douglas Carswell couldn't return to the Conservatives fairly soon? He left largely because of his dislike of David Cameron, but he's no longer going to be relevant in a couple of months' time. The other reason, leaving the EU, is something that all leadership candidates are working towards and Douglas Carswell isn't conspicuously anti-immigration so he should be able to toe whatever party line the Conservatives come up with.
  • JackW said:

    Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt announces complete ban on prescription sleeping pills as the NHS will now put Michael Gove's launch speech on-line .... once he's finished next Tuesday week ....

    Has he said anything about falconer resigning yet?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,783
    ROFL

    says the bloke from the country that voted twice.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I am watching occasional Wimbledon coverage on BBC World News, and notice that the correspondent, somebody Watson (?) wears a mike that looks like a fly fishing lure on alternate lapels every day. The main feature seems to be the always threatening clouds behind him and how everyone looks cold and miserable.

    I remember the days in the early 70s when I would pay my 50p during the first week and wander round all the outside courts.
  • SeanT said:

    That poll is irrelevant now, but similar polling may not be irrelevant in the future. If we're in deep recession by Xmas, and polling shows REMAIN 65/LEAVE 35, and we still haven't triggered A50 (and May and Gove say they won't trigger til 2017) - then it's very hard to guess whether PM May WOULD squeeze the trigger.
    Yes, because opinion polls are so precision accurate these days they will have no choice.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    JackW said:

    I think Miss Jones from "Rising Damp"

    No doubt @Pulpstar has already backed her
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Is there any reason now why Douglas Carswell couldn't return to the Conservatives fairly soon?

    Would he fight another by-election?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    I know they're posturing, and I don't think there's any appetite to cancel, but what is he on about. Brexit hasn't even legally been declared, our referendums are not binding so it technically could be cancelled and certainly delayed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,841

    Is there any reason now why Douglas Carswell couldn't return to the Conservatives fairly soon? He left largely because of his dislike of David Cameron, but he's no longer going to be relevant in a couple of months' time. The other reason, leaving the EU, is something that all leadership candidates are working towards and Douglas Carswell isn't conspicuously anti-immigration so he should be able to toe whatever party line the Conservatives come up with.

    Depends whether the new leadership would want him back. He's rather outspoken and a bit of a loose cannon.

    On the other hand, maybe we'll see him forming part of the Brexit government. Stranger things have happened...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    Would he fight another by-election?
    Haven't the people of Clacton suffered enough?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Tim_B said:

    Agree with those, plus its and it's, and disinterested vs uninterested.

    Oh, and the way here they almost always spell capitOl with an O, even if they shouldn't.

    Another irritating thing, on the BBC World Service I notice in particular, is that when asked a question, the responder will frequently start the reply with the word "So, ..."
    James Boswell uses disinterested "wrong" in the Life of Johnson, and what's good enough for him...

    And while I'm at it I never saw what was wrong with split infinitives, or degrees of uniqueness.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    The article mentions "racist" once - here (And it is a quote from Nigel Farage)

    The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, added: ‘There’s some pretty nasty stuff going on.
    'The general narrative at home is about racist abuse on the streets of Britain, but some of the stuff we’re seeing from Brussels Eurocrats is horrific.’

    No mention of it in the article, and though this is unpleasant it is not 'racism'.
    More evidence, were any needed, that Farage is an effing idiot
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    IanB2 said:

    leaving the LibDems as the only party in England not rocked by infighting and division?
    Have you read LibDemVoice recently? They're just not getting the column inches....for anything.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    This is news, is it not?
    Kippers have been lambasting Carswell on Twitter all day for his comments about the campaign... basically he bitched that UKIP were not trying to sell the Libertarian free-trade answer to the world, can't think why he felt they would be doing that, UKIP hasn't been Libertarian for years.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @YellowSubmarine

    'Brexit cannot be cancelled or delayed, says François Hollande'


    That's great coming from a politician that's currently supported by 12% of French voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,220
    Scott_P said:

    Would he fight another by-election?
    No, it's quite clear he has the mandate of his constituents. Not sure there is appetite in Clacton for another by-election. Of course he'd face UKIP at the next GE...

    (I expect he'd win easily - Carswell that is)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    GIN1138 said:

    Depends whether the new leadership would want him back. He's rather outspoken and a bit of a loose cannon.

    On the other hand, maybe we'll see him forming part of the Brexit government. Stranger things have happened...
    He's not a loose cannon. He's absolutely consistent: Carswell says what Carswell wants. It's his inability to bend to the central party's twists and turns that causes problems.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Pulpstar said:

    Eagle 4.6 / 5.9
    Bananaman 8 / 9.6
    Smith 4.3 / 7.6
    Benn 13.5 / 14
    Jarvis 13.5 / 17
    McDonnell 14.5 / 16.5
    Lewis 28 / 38
    I still think Jezza more than likely wins this contest. Bettors should then consider.


    Would the Betfair market be settled if SDP 2 somehow managed to retain the Labour name?

    If Corbyn Labour as is most likely retains the name Lewis would be great value
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,791

    Is there any reason now why Douglas Carswell couldn't return to the Conservatives fairly soon? He left largely because of his dislike of David Cameron, but he's no longer going to be relevant in a couple of months' time. The other reason, leaving the EU, is something that all leadership candidates are working towards and Douglas Carswell isn't conspicuously anti-immigration so he should be able to toe whatever party line the Conservatives come up with.

    Why would you wish that on the Conservatives?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Has he said anything about Falconer resigning yet?
    I assumed you were too shrewd to be taken in by malicious gossip on an internet forum Paul
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    a mike that looks like a fly fishing lure on alternate lapels every day.

    It's a WindJammer
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Has he said anything about falconer resigning yet?
    No yet .... rumours abound that particular gem is being left for the final passages at the end of the summer recess.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,791
    RobC said:

    http://reaction.life/britain-will-regret-brexit-eu-reforms/

    This is about as gloomy as it gets. Brexiteers care to comment?

    Yes. Stop reading crappy tea-leaf reading hack blogs, then posting them here.
  • John_M said:

    Thanks Plato. I'm reading around a lot to see what the Europeans are thinking. Otherwise I start getting really hostile when I hear Hollande sabre rattling just for domestic consumption. I'm trying to stay in love with Europe :).
    I liked this quote:

    "The sociologist Werner Sombart is attributed as having said the English are a small-minded people who would place a higher value on money than freedom, whereas the Germans, on the other hand, are a "heroic people" who have retained their idealism. That is also sure to be among the certainties that the Brexit vote has dismantled."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is why Hollande is bitching

    @AgnesCPoirier: French President: "a decision was taken. Can't be postponed or cancelled." We're in a hurry: Le Pen is at the door. https://t.co/DjGqdVtTGK

    Elections in France next year
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Gove now just 7 to finish last in the first round. I still think Fox likeliest, but it's a hefty fall from 21.
  • Given that the EU must now realise that Article 50 leaves them open to being held hostage by any member state at any time, we have now created an urgent need to reform the Lisbon Treaty itself. Why not take advantage of it to secure terms on which we could stay full members?

    Ha Ha.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited July 2016
    @John_M

    'leaving the LibDems as the only party in England not rocked by infighting and division?

    Have you read LibDemVoice recently? They're just not getting the column inches....for anything.'

    Half a dozen people talking among themselves, some days there are more threads than comments.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,345
    GIN1138 said:

    Depends whether the new leadership would want him back. He's rather outspoken and a bit of a loose cannon.

    On the other hand, maybe we'll see him forming part of the Brexit government. Stranger things have happened...
    If I were the Conservative Party and he wanted back in, I'd ask him to stay in UKIP a little longer. The longer he stays in, the more damage is done to UKIP. This is a sign of Farage's mania, as Carswell should have been a positive for the party. His talents have been wasted because of Farage's ego.

    And then, once the maximum damage has been caused to UKIP, let him back in. They could call it a penance.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_X said:

    James Boswell uses disinterested "wrong" in the Life of Johnson, and what's good enough for him...

    And while I'm at it I never saw what was wrong with split infinitives, or degrees of uniqueness.
    Unique is my least favourite word.

    Virtually every investment proposition I get shown is "uniquely positioned" or some such bullsh1t. Makes me want to barf.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    You are attributing motives to people, and wrongly assuming that all those who voted Remain did so because they don't mind freedom of movement. Many of them, such as me, will have voted Remain despite the fact that they see that as a disadvantage.

    But we have had a referendum, in which the principal message of the winning side was clear. Personally, I respect it, but it's odd that so many on the winning side now claim they don't.
    We had a referendum to leave the EU. It is only the anti-democrats like FF43 who seem to want to ignore it.

    The polls (for what they are worth) both before and after the vote have shown a clear majority in favour of maintaining access to the single market even if it means maintaining freedom of movement. If you want to align yourself with the minority who see immigration as the most important issue feel free. The rest of us will continue to press for what has always been by far the most sensible arrangement which is EFTA/EEA membership.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Carswell joins the Tories now, does he get a vote in the MPs' ballots?
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    Scott_P said:

    This is why Hollande is bitching

    @AgnesCPoirier: French President: "a decision was taken. Can't be postponed or cancelled." We're in a hurry: Le Pen is at the door. https://t.co/DjGqdVtTGK

    Elections in France next year

    And two months after EU-Turkish talks reopen.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    This is why Hollande is bitching

    @AgnesCPoirier: French President: "a decision was taken. Can't be postponed or cancelled." We're in a hurry: Le Pen is at the door. https://t.co/DjGqdVtTGK

    Elections in France next year

    What is the optimum date to sign Article 50 in order to bugger Hollande’s chances..?
  • Pulpstar said:

    The article mentions "racist" once - here (And it is a quote from Nigel Farage)

    The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, added: ‘There’s some pretty nasty stuff going on.
    'The general narrative at home is about racist abuse on the streets of Britain, but some of the stuff we’re seeing from Brussels Eurocrats is horrific.’

    No mention of it in the article, and though this is unpleasant it is not 'racism'.
    Right. So brits telling EU citizens in the UK to F. Off home or similar is Racist.

    People in brussels doing the same to british people there isnt Racist. Glad we have that sorted.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    dr_spyn said:

    Farrage playing silly buggers again.

    Meeting on Monday to expel Carswell.

    He's been borrowing Gove's knife.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What is the optimum date to sign Article 50 in order to bugger Hollande’s chances..?

    We should have a thread on that :)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    John_M said:

    Have you read LibDemVoice recently? They're just not getting the column inches....for anything.
    Lib Dem membership is about to reach its highest figure this century . 2003 was previous high
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    It seems the Carswell business is as a result of his appearance on QT

    https://twitter.com/UKIPPOOLE/status/748641669839527937
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    We cannot know exactly why people voted the way they did. We can make assumptions but cannot know for sure. And we don't know what things people might accept as the cost for something else. As such , our MPs have to determine what they think the majority want. Out of EU but free movement might be the closest compromise. Disliked by both sides, but they can punish them at the next election.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,880

    We had a referendum to leave the EU. It is only the anti-democrats like FF43 who seem to want to ignore it.

    The polls (for what they are worth) both before and after the vote have shown a clear majority in favour of maintaining access to the single market even if it means maintaining freedom of movement. If you want to align yourself with the minority who see immigration as the most important issue feel free. The rest of us will continue to press for what has always been by far the most sensible arrangement which is EFTA/EEA membership.
    I am very democratic, as I explained.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Charles said:

    Unique is my least favourite word.

    Virtually every investment proposition I get shown is "uniquely positioned" or some such bullsh1t. Makes me want to barf.
    While we're on the subject of pet hates. "Exclusive". Every tiny, squalid, sack-of-shit new build round here is always "An exclusive development of..." etc. Had a look at one recently on behalf of my aged Mum. You'd need to decelerate rapidly after entering the front, else you'd break your nose on the back door.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Utter rubbish. Legally it was a nonbinding referendum and nothing has changed.

    That said, the ECJ interprets things in a way that suits it with a view to ever closer union so would probably deploy judicial activism to gerrymander the result.

    We sure are learning who our friends are. Hostility from euro governments and racist attacks by their brussels people, meanwhile us and commonwealth stampeding for trade deals.

    Maybe its about time the MOD sent a couple of trident subs to Zeebrugge and get them to near surface and wave their periscopes around outside the harbour.



    That should smooth the Brexit negotiations nicely.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    RobC said:

    http://reaction.life/britain-will-regret-brexit-eu-reforms/

    This is about as gloomy as it gets. Brexiteers care to comment?

    Walter Ellis, ignore.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited July 2016
    Annoying Farage. Many members have been thrown out for that reason in the past. Many more have left because of him.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    This is why Hollande is bitching

    @AgnesCPoirier: French President: "a decision was taken. Can't be postponed or cancelled." We're in a hurry: Le Pen is at the door. https://t.co/DjGqdVtTGK

    Elections in France next year

    That's fine.

    All he has to do is to agree to our terms.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Annoying Farage. Many members have been thrown out for that reason in the past. Many more have left because of him.
    Apparently he said the following on QT last night (I didn't catch the show)
    "Angry nativism is no way to win elections..."
    Kippers were not impressed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2016

    We had a referendum to leave the EU. It is only the anti-democrats like FF43 who seem to want to ignore it.

    The polls (for what they are worth) both before and after the vote have shown a clear majority in favour of maintaining access to the single market even if it means maintaining freedom of movement. If you want to align yourself with the minority who see immigration as the most important issue feel free. The rest of us will continue to press for what has always been by far the most sensible arrangement which is EFTA/EEA membership.

    The problem is that the Vote Leave campaign - the side which won, and which you and other Leavers supported - used immigration as their principal argument. Indeed, not only did they make heavy use of it, they even invented some absolute grade-A solid-gold nonsensical scaremongering about Turkey to embellish it. Perhaps they were lying in the most cynical way imaginable. I'll leave that question to the conscience of those who were happy to go along with their campaign.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Is Teresa May the lady who used to go to the Commons in leopard skin shoes?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    AndyJS said:

    If Carswell joins the Tories now, does he get a vote in the MPs' ballots?

    Normal members had to have joined three months before Cameron resigned (24th March?). Can't see anything in the rule book about qualifying dates for MPs though. Would be an interesting call for the '22 Chairman to have to make.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Tim_B said:

    Is Teresa May the lady who used to go to the Commons in leopard skin shoes?

    Teresa May is a pornstar. Theresa May, on the other hand, does have an impressive shoe collection.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    Given that the EU must now realise that Article 50 leaves them open to being held hostage by any member state at any time, we have now created an urgent need to reform the Lisbon Treaty itself. Why not take advantage of it to secure terms on which we could stay full members?

    Not sure they'd want that now even if they decided to go full 2 speed EU. But it's only blackmailed by article 50 if they crack and offer new terms. If they don't it's annoying were not declaring buy manageable.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,345

    The problem is that the Vote Leave campaign - the side which won, and which you and other Leavers supported - used immigration as their principal argument. Indeed, not only did they make heavy use of it, they even invented some absolute grade-A solid-gold nonsensical scaremongering about Turkey to embellish it. Perhaps they were lying in the most cynical way imaginable. I'll leave that question to the conscience of those who were happy to go along with their campaign.
    I've asked before: can anyone show official literature (e.g. leaflets) from either leave campaign that mentioned either EEA or EFTA?

    I can't remember any (but that's not saying much).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,674
    dr_spyn said:
    It's the new reality - to be a proper political party in Britain you have to have an ongoing leadership crisis. Otherwise the media won't report anything you do or say.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited July 2016

    Teresa May is a pornstar. Theresa May, on the other hand, does have an impressive shoe collection.
    I rather suspect they both do. Guess which T(h)eresa owns these.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398

    Yes. Stop reading crappy tea-leaf reading hack blogs, then posting them here.
    So he's right then
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Indigo said:

    It seems the Carswell business is as a result of his appearance on QT

    https://twitter.com/UKIPPOOLE/status/748641669839527937

    Carswell has form, he can't help it. When he was a Tory MP every TV appearance included a criticism of government policy. I emailed a mild rebuke and was blocked from further comment.

  • Teresa May is a pornstar. Theresa May, on the other hand, does have an impressive shoe collection.
    Oh dear, numerous work pc disasters coming up.

    Just glad I was on my own device the day I wanted to see if the BBC was trending on a certain bird like social media
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Oh dear, numerous work pc disasters coming up.

    Just glad I was on my own device the day I wanted to see if the BBC was trending on a certain bird like social media

    And did you find any hard data?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    AndyJS said:

    If Carswell joins the Tories now, does he get a vote in the MPs' ballots?

    To be eligible to vote in the Tory leadership ballot you have to have been a paid up member for at least 3 months.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @joncstone: Nigel Farage calls for snap general election to be held under proportional representation https://t.co/GqfNpJVUfB

    @carlgardner: Odd that he prefers EU-style elections to the system that's always underpinned British Parliamentary sovereignty. https://t.co/rBzUPweMGv
  • Scott_P said:

    And did you find any hard data?
    Well it was certainly big.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    It's the new reality - to be a proper political party in Britain you have to have an ongoing leadership crisis. Otherwise the media won't report anything you do or say.
    What's going on with the greens I wonder
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    I've asked before: can anyone show official literature (e.g. leaflets) from either leave campaign that mentioned either EEA or EFTA?

    I can't remember any (but that's not saying much).
    This is a kind of joint response to you and Mr Nabavi. I didn't take any notice of either of the Leave campaigns. I went on the warpath here when I got the leaflet showing the map of Europe with the accession countries on it, with the veiled threat of '78 million Muslims', which I thought was disgusting. That leaflet didn't mention anything other than 'out of the EU' and 'take back control'.

    I've said repeatedly that the scale and pace of mass immigration has caused problems for many people in this country, but it's not something that affects me personally.

    I cannot put myself in moral dignity pants because odious people are on 'my' side in a yes/no referendum, nor can I understand people who think that I should.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    kle4 said:

    What's going on with the greens I wonder
    There is a leadership election. Sure to be a blood bath at some point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,811
    Scott_P said:

    @joncstone: Nigel Farage calls for snap general election to be held under proportional representation https://t.co/GqfNpJVUfB

    @carlgardner: Odd that he prefers EU-style elections to the system that's always underpinned British Parliamentary sovereignty. https://t.co/rBzUPweMGv

    As he's never won a direct election it's not hard to see why he would prefer a party list.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    I've asked before: can anyone show official literature (e.g. leaflets) from either leave campaign that mentioned either EEA or EFTA?

    I can't remember any (but that's not saying much).
    Does it matter? The people voted to leave the EU. Anything more than that and they can ask for it in another referendum. The leave campaign isn't the government and the next PM (Theresa) will have had little to do with it. This concern trolling from both you and Richard is tiresome. Only half of the leave vote was motivated by immigration, the rest was for a variety of reasons, two of which were having control over our laws and regaining sovereignty.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Mr. Charles, I thought you were going to refer to the abomination of qualifying 'unique' [ie "quite unique"].
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Mr. kle4, vegicide?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,791
    edited July 2016
    RobC said:

    http://reaction.life/britain-will-regret-brexit-eu-reforms/

    This is about as gloomy as it gets. Brexiteers care to comment?

    Yes. Stop reading crappy tea-leaf reading hack blogs, then posting them here.

    So he's right then

    Oh, you wanted us to read it? Sorry; life is too precious.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Mr. Charles, I thought you were going to refer to the abomination of qualifying 'unique' [ie "quite unique"].

    Not an abomination. I am unique and so is Mo Farah, but he is very unique while I am only so-so.
  • paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    some movement in ladbrokes next CoE market.

    Gove out to 4's. May out to 8's. Javid in to 5's. Leadsom still 2/1 fav.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Mr. X, report for re-education at once.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2016
    John_M said:

    ...

    I've said repeatedly that the scale and pace of mass immigration has caused problems for many people in this country, but it's not something that affects me personally.

    I cannot put myself in moral dignity pants because odious people are on 'my' side in a yes/no referendum, nor can I understand people who think that I should.

    My point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'odious people'. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being concerned about the excessive scale of EU immigration and the resultant pressure on housing and services; it's a concern I share, and many very fine people I know share.

    That isn't the issue, the issue is that people were told, completely unambiguously, that leaving the EU would mean we would no longer be subject to the EU/EEA freedom of movement rules. There's no getting away from this, it wasn't a footnote or an implication or an exaggeration, it was the centrepiece of the campaign. Personally, I think that means that MPs are now obliged to respect that. Quite how they do it I dont know, since there seems to be a belated understanding that the economic hit of doing so is likely to be unacceptable. Well, what a surprise, but, again, it's not as though voters weren't told that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,351
    Scott_P said:

    @joncstone: Nigel Farage calls for snap general election to be held under proportional representation https://t.co/GqfNpJVUfB

    @carlgardner: Odd that he prefers EU-style elections to the system that's always underpinned British Parliamentary sovereignty. https://t.co/rBzUPweMGv

    Hmmm.. no :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    dr_spyn said:
    One of them appears not have aged.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump coming up at the Western Conservative Summit in Denver, CO
    https://youtu.be/IAJmXWF1TDQ
    Palin warm-up..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,791
    Patrick said:

    Can Theresa May please kill one or two of the unnecessary government departments?
    Kill DfiD and move a (small) part of its remaining functionality to FCO for disaster relief - we really don't need the foreign virtue signalling as much as we need to save the money wasted on it.
    Kill Energy altogether.
    And finally get after the quangos with some vigour.

    Theresa, Dave was a lousy metrosexual gimp with not a reforming bone in his body. You don't need to ape that. Go with the people.

    So this from earlier on.

    The aid budget is already significantly disbursed to the various departments. The danger in this is it just becomes a big slush fund but without the degree of scrutiny that being spent by a department entails.

    IMO the department of energy should be the department of energy security, and should be merged with the DTI.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Ishmael_X said:

    Not an abomination. I am unique and so is Mo Farah, but he is very unique while I am only so-so.
    No.

    Just no.

    He is more distinctive or special than you, but you are both unique.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_X said:

    Not an abomination. I am unique and so is Mo Farah, but he is very unique while I am only so-so.
    You are either unique or you are not unique. It is a binary outcome
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Project Fear still running I see. Now the pollsters have joined in...

    @Andrew_ComRes: I've been picking up tons of anecdotal stories of businesses screeching to a dead stop in wake of #Brexit vote - slowdown is real
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,783

    My point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'odious people'. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being concerned about the excessive scale of EU immigration and the resultant pressure on housing and services; it's a concern I share, and many very fine people I know share.

    That isn't the issue, the issue is that people were told, completely unambiguously, that leaving the EU would mean we would no longer be subject to the EU/EEA freedom of movement rules. There's no getting away from this, it wasn't a footnote or an implication or an exaggeration, it was the centrepiece of the campaign. Personally, I think that means that MPs are now obliged to respect that. Quite how they do it I dont know, since there seems to be a belated understanding that the economic hit of doing so is likely to be unacceptable. Well, what a surprise, but, again, it's not as though voters weren't told that.
    Maybe your missing the signal they expect their politicians to look at it again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    There is a leadership election. Sure to be a blood bath at some point.
    Don't the Greens have a leadership election every year at Conference?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    The problem is that the Vote Leave campaign - the side which won, and which you and other Leavers supported - used immigration as their principal argument. Indeed, not only did they make heavy use of it, they even invented some absolute grade-A solid-gold nonsensical scaremongering about Turkey to embellish it. Perhaps they were lying in the most cynical way imaginable. I'll leave that question to the conscience of those who were happy to go along with their campaign.
    The stuff about turkey in particular was nonsense and I for one said so. But the government is for everyone, not just vote leave, so if it comes up with a deal which us leave light many won't like it but it won't be a betrayal. Vote leave said it wasn't for them to plan how Brexit goes. If they want to then they need leadsom to win.

  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Project Fear still running I see. Now the pollsters have joined in...

    @Andrew_ComRes: I've been picking up tons of anecdotal stories of businesses screeching to a dead stop in wake of #Brexit vote - slowdown is real

    Andrew "56% remain" Com Res?

    Maybe his anecdotes will be more accurate.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    My point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'odious people'. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being concerned about the excessive scale of EU immigration and the resultant pressure on housing and services; it's a concern I share, and many very fine people I know share.

    That isn't the issue, the issue is that people were told, completely unambiguously, that leaving the EU would mean we would no longer be subject to the EU/EEA freedom of movement rules. There's no getting away from this, it wasn't a footnote or an implication or an exaggeration, it was the centrepiece of the campaign. Personally, I think that means that MPs are now obliged to respect that. Quite how they do it I dont know, since there seems to be a belated understanding that the economic hit of doing so is likely to be unacceptable. Well, what a surprise, but, again, it's not as though voters weren't told that.
    Ah, I'm sorry I misunderstood the thrust of your argument. Based on personal anecdota, I think several Leavers I know are expecting a reduction in immigration to around 100k or thereabouts. I have no idea how practical that expectation is.

    Most of my family (if they talked about immigration at all) were concerned about the immediate access to benefits/housing for those immigrants without a job, and in-work benefits for those with one. Yes, I know, it doesn't make sense given the UK system.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,220
    Something for everyone here:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6h6 hours ago

    On a second EU referendum:
    Support: 32%
    Oppose: 60%
    (via BMG / 29 - 30 Jun)
    274 retweets 166 likes

    Keiran Pedley Retweeted
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6h6 hours ago

    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 45%
    Leave: 40%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,505
    Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff
    Nothing, but nothing, fills your inbox with furious conspiracy theorists as fast as writing about Jeremy Corbyn. not even writing about UFOs
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited July 2016
    Charles said:

    You are either unique or you are not unique. It is a binary outcome
    No, you are unique. Everything in the universe is, if you include its spatial coordinates in its description (at least at classical scales; this may not be true at the quantum level - I wouldn't know). So if we can't qualify the word it is useless, because it applies equally to everything, and should not be used at all. Which is probably the best solution.

    Edit: as a human being you are unique anyway by virtue of DNA and personal history, so you don't need the spatial location qualification to the argument.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    I shall be in a most awkward position if Leaving ends up poorly, and we don't lower immigration - Remainers will call me a fool, and anti-immigration leavers will see me as a quisling if I'm ok with a deal with FOM. Speaking to some leavers, they were indeed very clear to me that they expected immigration would be cut. Now, there's no reason the government is bound to that, or even the attempt, any more than a manifesto promise (and in fact less so since not all the government supporter VoteLeave), but while it would please many remainers and some fewer leavers, it will anger a lot of people.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,783
    edited July 2016
    MontyHall said:

    Andrew "56% remain" Com Res?

    Maybe his anecdotes will be more accurate.
    I suspect theres a big crunch coming in the market for "experts"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    Scott_P said:

    @joncstone: Nigel Farage calls for snap general election to be held under proportional representation https://t.co/GqfNpJVUfB
    v

    Well it's not a terrible idea in some ways, but one constitutional crisis at a time (in fairness, sorting out our devolution, electoral and other messes in the time period of the article 50 negotiations would probably be a good idea too, but I think that is beyond mortal man)
This discussion has been closed.