politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Lead

Sandpit said:

dr_spyn said:

Farrage playing silly buggers again.

Meeting on Monday to expel Carswell.

LOL, they're going to throw out their only MP. He'll probably rejoin the Tories under Gove or May anyway.

If he rejoined on Monday, would he get to vote in the MPs ballot of the leadership election?

williamglenn said:

Given that the EU must now realise that Article 50 leaves them open to being held hostage by any members state at any time, we have now created an urgent need to reform the Lisbon Treaty itself. Why not take advantage of it to secure terms on which we could stay full members?

Sarkozy is peddling the new treaty line. Can't remember where I saw it. Something around five years before foreign workers would be eligible for benefits. I'll see if I can dig it up again.

The only mechanism that would make me change my mind would be a new treaty that formally enshrines a two bloc Europe. But that's not going to happen, so Brexit it is.

Sandpit said:

dr_spyn said:

Farrage playing silly buggers again.

Meeting on Monday to expel Carswell.

LOL, they're going to throw out their only MP. He'll probably rejoin the Tories under Gove or May anyway.

leaving the LibDems as the only party in England not rocked by infighting and division?

JackW said:

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt announces complete ban on prescription sleeping pills as the NHS will now put Michael Gove's launch speech on-line .... once he's finished next Tuesday week ....

Has he said anything about falconer resigning yet?

I am watching occasional Wimbledon coverage on BBC World News, and notice that the correspondent, somebody Watson (?) wears a mike that looks like a fly fishing lure on alternate lapels every day. The main feature seems to be the always threatening clouds behind him and how everyone looks cold and miserable.

I remember the days in the early 70s when I would pay my 50p during the first week and wander round all the outside courts.

JackW said:

Jobabob said:

Jones? Who?

I think Miss Jones from "Rising Damp"

No doubt @Pulpstar has already backed her

YellowSubmarine said:

Brexit cannot be cancelled or delayed, says François Hollande

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/01/brexit-cannot-be-cancelled-or-delayed-says-francois-hollande?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

I know they're posturing, and I don't think there's any appetite to cancel, but what is he on about. Brexit hasn't even legally been declared, our referendums are not binding so it technically could be cancelled and certainly delayed.

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is there any reason now why Douglas Carswell couldn't return to the Conservatives fairly soon?

Would he fight another by-election?

Haven't the people of Clacton suffered enough?

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Appalling racist attacks on British People, officials and even MEPs on the streets and bars of Brussels, Eurostar and even in EU and EU parliament buldings.

Apparently this has been going on at a low level for years but has got far worse in the last week.

Funnily enough I dont see SJWs foaming all over social media about it though.

http://dailym.ai/297p85j

Racist? How can Europeans be racist towards other Europeans?

The article mentions "racist" once - here (And it is a quote from Nigel Farage)

The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, added: ‘There’s some pretty nasty stuff going on.
'The general narrative at home is about racist abuse on the streets of Britain, but some of the stuff we’re seeing from Brussels Eurocrats is horrific.’

No mention of it in the article, and though this is unpleasant it is not 'racism'.

More evidence, were any needed, that Farage is an effing idiot

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Is there any reason now why Douglas Carswell couldn't return to the Conservatives fairly soon?

Would he fight another by-election?

No, it's quite clear he has the mandate of his constituents. Not sure there is appetite in Clacton for another by-election. Of course he'd face UKIP at the next GE...

(I expect he'd win easily - Carswell that is)

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

The eagle is flying out on Betfair

At this rate David Miliband might end up the favourite!

Owen Smith now ahead of David Miliband in the betting.

The Eagle is drifting.

What are the numbers Pulps? Can't get BF at work.

Eagle 4.6 / 5.9
Bananaman 8 / 9.6
Smith 4.3 / 7.6
Benn 13.5 / 14
Jarvis 13.5 / 17
McDonnell 14.5 / 16.5
Lewis 28 / 38

I still think Jezza more than likely wins this contest. Bettors should then consider.


Would the Betfair market be settled if SDP 2 somehow managed to retain the Labour name?

If Corbyn Labour as is most likely retains the name Lewis would be great value

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

JackW said:

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt announces complete ban on prescription sleeping pills as the NHS will now put Michael Gove's launch speech on-line .... once he's finished next Tuesday week ....

Has he said anything about Falconer resigning yet?

I assumed you were too shrewd to be taken in by malicious gossip on an internet forum Paul

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

JackW said:

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt announces complete ban on prescription sleeping pills as the NHS will now put Michael Gove's launch speech on-line .... once he's finished next Tuesday week ....

Has he said anything about falconer resigning yet?

No yet .... rumours abound that particular gem is being left for the final passages at the end of the summer recess.

John_M said:

PlatoSaid said:

@John_M That Spiegel article is superb

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-is-merkel-to-blame-a-1100303.html#js-article-comments-box-pager

"Along with the outrage over the election result, there's a conspicuous lack of desire to address the root reasons for the election victory. Like the fact that one of the world's oldest democracies may have lost faith in the European institutions because democracy is something its people hold near and dear. It's a thought that is immediately banished. Instead we hear about how reckless David Cameron was in calling for a referendum. The argument, put forth in numerous versions, holds that you cannot hold a popular referendum on something as complicated as EU membership.

It's astonishing how many commentators have parroted that line, seemingly unconscious of what it says about their own understanding of democracy. What it really means is this: Elections can only be good if the results correspond with the desires of the educated. Or as Micky Beisenherz, a columnist for the German weekly Stern, put it: "Democracy is great thing. The only dumb thing about it is that stupid are allowed to participate."

Thanks Plato. I'm reading around a lot to see what the Europeans are thinking. Otherwise I start getting really hostile when I hear Hollande sabre rattling just for domestic consumption. I'm trying to stay in love with Europe .

I liked this quote:

"The sociologist Werner Sombart is attributed as having said the English are a small-minded people who would place a higher value on money than freedom, whereas the Germans, on the other hand, are a "heroic people" who have retained their idealism. That is also sure to be among the certainties that the Brexit vote has dismantled."

Gove now just 7 to finish last in the first round. I still think Fox likeliest, but it's a hefty fall from 21.

@John_M

'leaving the LibDems as the only party in England not rocked by infighting and division?

Have you read LibDemVoice recently? They're just not getting the column inches....for anything.'

Half a dozen people talking among themselves, some days there are more threads than comments.

Ishmael_X said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

MyBurningEars said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.

Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist

Oh, by Britain's wealth you meant bricks and mortar.

London will be the most effected and the market is well up in recent years. It can afford a small decrease.

TheWhiteRabbit, London will be the most "effected", really?? For a gentleman of your level of overeducation

I had a DoS at Cambridge who looked like a little bit of her died inside every time she saw one of two mistakes: effected/affected and practice/practise. She had tolerant disdain of any other slip. But those two brought out a deadened look in her eyes that I can only describe as "whatever is the world coming to - I want to get off, preferably 50 years ago."

My big bugbear is the inquiry/enquiry one.

Then, for UK vs US English, it is the use of 'momentarily'. "The plane will be landing momentarily" "Well, I hope it lands long enough for me to get off."

Agree with those, plus its and it's, and disinterested vs uninterested.

Oh, and the way here they almost always spell capitOl with an O, even if they shouldn't.

Another irritating thing, on the BBC World Service I notice in particular, is that when asked a question, the responder will frequently start the reply with the word "So, ..."

James Boswell uses disinterested "wrong" in the Life of Johnson, and what's good enough for him...

And while I'm at it I never saw what was wrong with split infinitives, or degrees of uniqueness.

Unique is my least favourite word.

Virtually every investment proposition I get shown is "uniquely positioned" or some such bullsh1t. Makes me want to barf.

If Carswell joins the Tories now, does he get a vote in the MPs' ballots?

Scott_P said:

This is why Hollande is bitching

@AgnesCPoirier: French President: "a decision was taken. Can't be postponed or cancelled." We're in a hurry: Le Pen is at the door. https://t.co/DjGqdVtTGK

Elections in France next year

What is the optimum date to sign Article 50 in order to bugger Hollande’s chances..?

John_M said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

dr_spyn said:

Farrage playing silly buggers again.

Meeting on Monday to expel Carswell.

LOL, they're going to throw out their only MP. He'll probably rejoin the Tories under Gove or May anyway.

leaving the LibDems as the only party in England not rocked by infighting and division?

Have you read LibDemVoice recently? They're just not getting the column inches....for anything.

Lib Dem membership is about to reach its highest figure this century . 2003 was previous high

We cannot know exactly why people voted the way they did. We can make assumptions but cannot know for sure. And we don't know what things people might accept as the cost for something else. As such , our MPs have to determine what they think the majority want. Out of EU but free movement might be the closest compromise. Disliked by both sides, but they can punish them at the next election.

Charles said:

Ishmael_X said:

Tim_B said:

MTimT said:

MyBurningEars said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

Re house prices...seanT gets it, but I cannot believe the economic illiteracy of the others. Every recession we have is accompanied by house price falls. Negative equity is not a good thing for the economy. Banks restricting lending is not a good thing for the economy. People worried about their futures is not good for the economy. In fact a house price crash is a terrible thing for the economy.

Brexiters- can you really be this thick , aside from being nihilistic, reactionary and populist

Oh, by Britain's wealth you meant bricks and mortar.

London will be the most effected and the market is well up in recent years. It can afford a small decrease.

TheWhiteRabbit, London will be the most "effected", really?? For a gentleman of your level of overeducation

I had a DoS at Cambridge who looked like a little bit of her died inside every time she saw one of two mistakes: effected/affected and practice/practise. She had tolerant disdain of any other slip. But those two brought out a deadened look in her eyes that I can only describe as "whatever is the world coming to - I want to get off, preferably 50 years ago."

My big bugbear is the inquiry/enquiry one.

Then, for UK vs US English, it is the use of 'momentarily'. "The plane will be landing momentarily" "Well, I hope it lands long enough for me to get off."

Agree with those, plus its and it's, and disinterested vs uninterested.

Oh, and the way here they almost always spell capitOl with an O, even if they shouldn't.

Another irritating thing, on the BBC World Service I notice in particular, is that when asked a question, the responder will frequently start the reply with the word "So, ..."

James Boswell uses disinterested "wrong" in the Life of Johnson, and what's good enough for him...

And while I'm at it I never saw what was wrong with split infinitives, or degrees of uniqueness.

Unique is my least favourite word.

Virtually every investment proposition I get shown is "uniquely positioned" or some such bullsh1t. Makes me want to barf.

While we're on the subject of pet hates. "Exclusive". Every tiny, squalid, sack-of-shit new build round here is always "An exclusive development of..." etc. Had a look at one recently on behalf of my aged Mum. You'd need to decelerate rapidly after entering the front, else you'd break your nose on the back door.

RobC said:

http://reaction.life/britain-will-regret-brexit-eu-reforms/

This is about as gloomy as it gets. Brexiteers care to comment?

Walter Ellis, ignore.

Scott_P said:

This is why Hollande is bitching

@AgnesCPoirier: French President: "a decision was taken. Can't be postponed or cancelled." We're in a hurry: Le Pen is at the door. https://t.co/DjGqdVtTGK

Elections in France next year

That's fine.

All he has to do is to agree to our terms.

Richard_Tyndall said:

We had a referendum to leave the EU. It is only the anti-democrats like FF43 who seem to want to ignore it.

The polls (for what they are worth) both before and after the vote have shown a clear majority in favour of maintaining access to the single market even if it means maintaining freedom of movement. If you want to align yourself with the minority who see immigration as the most important issue feel free. The rest of us will continue to press for what has always been by far the most sensible arrangement which is EFTA/EEA membership.

The problem is that the Vote Leave campaign - the side which won, and which you and other Leavers supported - used immigration as their principal argument. Indeed, not only did they make heavy use of it, they even invented some absolute grade-A solid-gold nonsensical scaremongering about Turkey to embellish it. Perhaps they were lying in the most cynical way imaginable. I'll leave that question to the conscience of those who were happy to go along with their campaign.

AndyJS said:

If Carswell joins the Tories now, does he get a vote in the MPs' ballots?

Normal members had to have joined three months before Cameron resigned (24th March?). Can't see anything in the rule book about qualifying dates for MPs though. Would be an interesting call for the '22 Chairman to have to make.

williamglenn said:

Given that the EU must now realise that Article 50 leaves them open to being held hostage by any member state at any time, we have now created an urgent need to reform the Lisbon Treaty itself. Why not take advantage of it to secure terms on which we could stay full members?

Not sure they'd want that now even if they decided to go full 2 speed EU. But it's only blackmailed by article 50 if they crack and offer new terms. If they don't it's annoying were not declaring buy manageable.

dr_spyn said:

Link to UKIP farce.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/748903761939234816

It's the new reality - to be a proper political party in Britain you have to have an ongoing leadership crisis. Otherwise the media won't report anything you do or say.

Luckyguy1983 said:

RobC said:

http://reaction.life/britain-will-regret-brexit-eu-reforms/

This is about as gloomy as it gets. Brexiteers care to comment?

Yes. Stop reading crappy tea-leaf reading hack blogs, then posting them here.

So he's right then

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tim_B said:

Is Teresa May the lady who used to go to the Commons in leopard skin shoes?

Teresa May is a pornstar. Theresa May, on the other hand, does have an impressive shoe collection.

Oh dear, numerous work pc disasters coming up.

Just glad I was on my own device the day I wanted to see if the BBC was trending on a certain bird like social media

Scott_P said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Oh dear, numerous work pc disasters coming up.

Just glad I was on my own device the day I wanted to see if the BBC was trending on a certain bird like social media

And did you find any hard data?

Well it was certainly big.....

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

We had a referendum to leave the EU. It is only the anti-democrats like FF43 who seem to want to ignore it.

The polls (for what they are worth) both before and after the vote have shown a clear majority in favour of maintaining access to the single market even if it means maintaining freedom of movement. If you want to align yourself with the minority who see immigration as the most important issue feel free. The rest of us will continue to press for what has always been by far the most sensible arrangement which is EFTA/EEA membership.

The problem is that the Vote Leave campaign - the side which won, and which you and other Leavers supported - used immigration as their principal argument. Indeed, not only did they make heavy use of it, they even invented some absolute grade-A solid-gold nonsensical scaremongering about Turkey to embellish it. Perhaps they were lying in the most cynical way imaginable. I'll leave that question to the conscience of those who were happy to go along with their campaign.

I've asked before: can anyone show official literature (e.g. leaflets) from either leave campaign that mentioned either EEA or EFTA?

I can't remember any (but that's not saying much).

This is a kind of joint response to you and Mr Nabavi. I didn't take any notice of either of the Leave campaigns. I went on the warpath here when I got the leaflet showing the map of Europe with the accession countries on it, with the veiled threat of '78 million Muslims', which I thought was disgusting. That leaflet didn't mention anything other than 'out of the EU' and 'take back control'.

I've said repeatedly that the scale and pace of mass immigration has caused problems for many people in this country, but it's not something that affects me personally.

I cannot put myself in moral dignity pants because odious people are on 'my' side in a yes/no referendum, nor can I understand people who think that I should.

Scott_P said:

@joncstone: Nigel Farage calls for snap general election to be held under proportional representation https://t.co/GqfNpJVUfB

@carlgardner: Odd that he prefers EU-style elections to the system that's always underpinned British Parliamentary sovereignty. https://t.co/rBzUPweMGv

As he's never won a direct election it's not hard to see why he would prefer a party list.

Mr. Charles, I thought you were going to refer to the abomination of qualifying 'unique' [ie "quite unique"].

RobC said:

http://reaction.life/britain-will-regret-brexit-eu-reforms/

This is about as gloomy as it gets. Brexiteers care to comment?

Yes. Stop reading crappy tea-leaf reading hack blogs, then posting them here.

So he's right then

Oh, you wanted us to read it? Sorry; life is too precious.

Mr. X, report for re-education at once.

John_M said:

...

I've said repeatedly that the scale and pace of mass immigration has caused problems for many people in this country, but it's not something that affects me personally.

I cannot put myself in moral dignity pants because odious people are on 'my' side in a yes/no referendum, nor can I understand people who think that I should.

My point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'odious people'. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being concerned about the excessive scale of EU immigration and the resultant pressure on housing and services; it's a concern I share, and many very fine people I know share.

That isn't the issue, the issue is that people were told, completely unambiguously, that leaving the EU would mean we would no longer be subject to the EU/EEA freedom of movement rules. There's no getting away from this, it wasn't a footnote or an implication or an exaggeration, it was the centrepiece of the campaign. Personally, I think that means that MPs are now obliged to respect that. Quite how they do it I dont know, since there seems to be a belated understanding that the economic hit of doing so is likely to be unacceptable. Well, what a surprise, but, again, it's not as though voters weren't told that.

dr_spyn said:

from the archives.

https://twitter.com/paul1kirby/status/748916457946419200

One of them appears not have aged.

Patrick said:

Can Theresa May please kill one or two of the unnecessary government departments?
Kill DfiD and move a (small) part of its remaining functionality to FCO for disaster relief - we really don't need the foreign virtue signalling as much as we need to save the money wasted on it.
Kill Energy altogether.
And finally get after the quangos with some vigour.

Theresa, Dave was a lousy metrosexual gimp with not a reforming bone in his body. You don't need to ape that. Go with the people.

So this from earlier on.

The aid budget is already significantly disbursed to the various departments. The danger in this is it just becomes a big slush fund but without the degree of scrutiny that being spent by a department entails.

IMO the department of energy should be the department of energy security, and should be merged with the DTI.

Ishmael_X said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Charles, I thought you were going to refer to the abomination of qualifying 'unique' [ie "quite unique"].

Not an abomination. I am unique and so is Mo Farah, but he is very unique while I am only so-so.

You are either unique or you are not unique. It is a binary outcome

Richard_Nabavi said:

John_M said:

...

I've said repeatedly that the scale and pace of mass immigration has caused problems for many people in this country, but it's not something that affects me personally.

I cannot put myself in moral dignity pants because odious people are on 'my' side in a yes/no referendum, nor can I understand people who think that I should.

My point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'odious people'. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being concerned about the excessive scale of EU immigration and the resultant pressure on housing and services; it's a concern I share, and many very fine people I know share.

That isn't the issue, the issue is that people were told, completely unambiguously, that leaving the EU would mean we would no longer be subject to the EU/EEA freedom of movement rules. There's no getting away from this, it wasn't a footnote or an implication or an exaggeration, it was the centrepiece of the campaign. Personally, I think that means that MPs are now obliged to respect that. Quite how they do it I dont know, since there seems to be a belated understanding that the economic hit of doing so is likely to be unacceptable. Well, what a surprise, but, again, it's not as though voters weren't told that.

Maybe your missing the signal they expect their politicians to look at it again.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

We had a referendum to leave the EU. It is only the anti-democrats like FF43 who seem to want to ignore it.

The polls (for what they are worth) both before and after the vote have shown a clear majority in favour of maintaining access to the single market even if it means maintaining freedom of movement. If you want to align yourself with the minority who see immigration as the most important issue feel free. The rest of us will continue to press for what has always been by far the most sensible arrangement which is EFTA/EEA membership.

The problem is that the Vote Leave campaign - the side which won, and which you and other Leavers supported - used immigration as their principal argument. Indeed, not only did they make heavy use of it, they even invented some absolute grade-A solid-gold nonsensical scaremongering about Turkey to embellish it. Perhaps they were lying in the most cynical way imaginable. I'll leave that question to the conscience of those who were happy to go along with their campaign.

The stuff about turkey in particular was nonsense and I for one said so. But the government is for everyone, not just vote leave, so if it comes up with a deal which us leave light many won't like it but it won't be a betrayal. Vote leave said it wasn't for them to plan how Brexit goes. If they want to then they need leadsom to win.

Richard_Nabavi said:

John_M said:

...

I've said repeatedly that the scale and pace of mass immigration has caused problems for many people in this country, but it's not something that affects me personally.

I cannot put myself in moral dignity pants because odious people are on 'my' side in a yes/no referendum, nor can I understand people who think that I should.

My point has nothing whatsoever to do with 'odious people'. There's absolutely nothing wrong with being concerned about the excessive scale of EU immigration and the resultant pressure on housing and services; it's a concern I share, and many very fine people I know share.

That isn't the issue, the issue is that people were told, completely unambiguously, that leaving the EU would mean we would no longer be subject to the EU/EEA freedom of movement rules. There's no getting away from this, it wasn't a footnote or an implication or an exaggeration, it was the centrepiece of the campaign. Personally, I think that means that MPs are now obliged to respect that. Quite how they do it I dont know, since there seems to be a belated understanding that the economic hit of doing so is likely to be unacceptable. Well, what a surprise, but, again, it's not as though voters weren't told that.

Ah, I'm sorry I misunderstood the thrust of your argument. Based on personal anecdota, I think several Leavers I know are expecting a reduction in immigration to around 100k or thereabouts. I have no idea how practical that expectation is.

Most of my family (if they talked about immigration at all) were concerned about the immediate access to benefits/housing for those immigrants without a job, and in-work benefits for those with one. Yes, I know, it doesn't make sense given the UK system.

Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff
Nothing, but nothing, fills your inbox with furious conspiracy theorists as fast as writing about Jeremy Corbyn. not even writing about UFOs

I shall be in a most awkward position if Leaving ends up poorly, and we don't lower immigration - Remainers will call me a fool, and anti-immigration leavers will see me as a quisling if I'm ok with a deal with FOM. Speaking to some leavers, they were indeed very clear to me that they expected immigration would be cut. Now, there's no reason the government is bound to that, or even the attempt, any more than a manifesto promise (and in fact less so since not all the government supporter VoteLeave), but while it would please many remainers and some fewer leavers, it will anger a lot of people.

Scott_P said:

@joncstone: Nigel Farage calls for snap general election to be held under proportional representation https://t.co/GqfNpJVUfB
v

Well it's not a terrible idea in some ways, but one constitutional crisis at a time (in fairness, sorting out our devolution, electoral and other messes in the time period of the article 50 negotiations would probably be a good idea too, but I think that is beyond mortal man)