politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Leadsom now or wait for the race to evolve
On May 25h while perusing the Betfair next CON leader odds I saw that Andrea Leadson was available at 90 and immediately took the few pounds that was available that price. It then slipped down to 65, 55 46 nd 44 and I took that as well. My next bet on Leadsom was at 9.31am, just after Cameron had resigned, when I got 65.
Comments
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Cash/trade out.
Edit and First like TM4PM0 -
Second like May.0
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Point of order Mike, result is now the 9th of September, when you're on your holibops0
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Bleugh0
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Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
I think she's still value at 6.6. I'd be selling her at 4.00
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Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?0
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MPs seem to like coronations, but do they go down well with the public? Particularly for a PM who is coming to power without a general election.
I guess current circumstances give more support for a swift resolution, and they'd quite like to be in a position to point and laugh at the Labour party.0 -
I suspect the Tory party may quickly come to the conclusion that 9 September is too long to wait....a lot of work to be getting on with....TheScreamingEagles said:Point of order Mike, result is now the 9th of September, when you're on your holibops
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Cf the Tory leadership contest of 2001Jonathan said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
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Things are moving fast: I would take half the profit and see if the rest will ride a little further. The risk of losing the lot through another bombshell is too big.0
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No idea, I've played this market very poorly.0
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Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.
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I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)
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0
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Great bets Mike, always good to spot the runners before the race starts.
I'd probably cash out, things could move very quickly on Tuesday, although she's unlikely to come last so could well tighten further if the race continues.0 -
From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education0 -
I was sure May was on 81 declared MPs earlier on the ConHome list - down to 79 now.
Leadsome was second but now 3rd with 14, one ahead of Gove but 5 behind Crabbe.
I still feel a multiple-withdrawl stitch-up coming on next week. "For the sake of the country..." It is why it would make sense for May not to "lend" any of her support to any other candidates. In that well-worn phrase from Neil Kinnock "grind the bastards into the dust". We've seen how wrong things can go when people lend their support to say Jeremy Corbyn. Look - and learn.
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But is it a guaranteed £100 now or £500 if she wins? (Scale according to your bet).
Profit or a gamble? May be best to weight for the results of the first vote, if we are sure Leadsom will survive that and if the Cash Out offers are still available (mine seem to switch on and off)0 -
The new voting intention poll once again is overstating the left to get off their skinny vegan arses and actually vote.
37% Tory, 27% Labour is where we are at.0 -
Well, the precedent is Gordon Brown...William_H said:MPs seem to like coronations, but do they go down well with the public? Particularly for a PM who is coming to power without a general election.
I guess current circumstances give more support for a swift resolution, and they'd quite like to be in a position to point and laugh at the Labour party.0 -
I think Mike should cash out to make provision for the first edition of Volume 1 of extracts and highlights from the first week of Michael Gove's speech - entitled
Backstabbing Bastard's Bonhomie Bravado0 -
Just did a minor cash-out on my Tory bets. My bet from 3 years ago on May has come up trumps (all good things come to those who wait etc etc). Now totally green with still a big pay day on May if she goes all the way.
Thank you Boris!!0 -
That is my gut feeling as well.nunu said:The new voting intention poll once again is overstating the left to get off their skinny vegan arses and actually vote.
37% Tory, 27% Labour is where we are at.
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So what? We're all heading for BREXIT.taffys said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.0 -
and she's not really a Remainer. She just made a political calculation, like Boris did.CarlottaVance said:
So what? We're all heading for BREXIT.taffys said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.
She's a smart operator. During the campaign she went out of her way to propose leaving the ECJ, to keep the leavers onside. After the campaign she proposed to stay in the ECJ, to reach out to the remainers. And she has got remarkably little stick for her flexibility.0 -
At this stage, it looks like the Tories will have their second female Prime Minister before Labour even get to having elected a woman to the party leadership role.
Do you think the fact of May or Leadsom's election/coronation will have any impact on the outcome of the Labour party leadership struggle?0 -
Welcome back, Comrade! Us PB Labourites have more to unite us than divide us.SouthamObserver said:
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
To be fair very few of us were expecting a leadership contest in June 2016.Pulpstar said:No idea, I've played this market very poorly.
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.0 -
I truly don't get this trend for thrusting rookies into the leadership. What happened to proving yourself on the front bench before getting the top job?
I really don't get it. It's bizarre.
I especially don't get some supposed ideological purity trumping proven ability within the Tory party, which - if aspires to anything good - is the triumph over what works over untested ideas.
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I've laid Osborne and Boris on your advice so hopefully you did too.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair very few of us were expecting a leadership contest in June 2016.Pulpstar said:No idea, I've played this market very poorly.
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.0 -
As Tissue Price said yesterday, you could start a bonfire with all my betting slips on this race.0
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Congrats, SO. The UK needs a functioning and credible opposition. We need some reverse rats to right the sinking ship. I, for one, would prefer the opposition to be to the left of the Tories, not to their right.SouthamObserver said:
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
Out of interest, how do those of you who make lots of bet keep track - do you have a spreadsheet or something?TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair very few of us were expecting a leadership contest in June 2016.Pulpstar said:No idea, I've played this market very poorly.
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.0 -
We'll see about that!SandyRentool said:
Welcome back, Comrade! Us PB Labourites have more to unite us than divide us.SouthamObserver said:
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
"No time for a novice"Jonathan said:I truly don't get this trend for thrusting rookies into the leadership. What happened to proving yourself on the front bench before getting the top job?
I really don't get it. It's bizarre.
I especially don't get some supposed ideological purity trumping proven ability within the Tory party, which - if aspires to anything good - is the triumph over what works over untested ideas.0 -
Precisely. It really is as simple as that.Jonathan said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
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Still denying physical reality with regard to climate change, I see. Didn't you rather absurdly claim a couple of days ago that UK greenhouse emissions per capita are now less than they were in pre-industrial times?MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education0 -
I have. But I'm whistfully remembering that I've been betting on this market since 2006.MaxPB said:
I've laid Osborne and Boris on your advice so hopefully you did too.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair very few of us were expecting a leadership contest in June 2016.Pulpstar said:No idea, I've played this market very poorly.
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.
That period in the summer/Autumn of 2007 was very profitable too.0 -
Brexit has won. Remainers and leavers are a dying breed. May is being backed by Grayling, remember he was one of the few who backed Leave without even waiting for the PM's renegotiation.taffys said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.0 -
Get rid of Corbyn or its 10 more years of opposition from 2020.SandyRentool said:
Welcome back, Comrade! Us PB Labourites have more to unite us than divide us.SouthamObserver said:
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
Sorry, I completely forgot, give me a bit of time.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Still denying physical reality with regard to climate change, I see. Didn't you rather absurdly claim a couple of days ago that UK greenhouse emissions per capita are now less than they were in pre-industrial times?MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education0 -
Can Theresa May please kill one or two of the unnecessary government departments?
Kill DfiD and move a (small) part of its remaining functionality to FCO for disaster relief - we really don't need the foreign virtue signalling as much as we need to save the money wasted on it.
Kill Energy altogether.
And finally get after the quangos with some vigour.
Theresa, Dave was a lousy metrosexual gimp with not a reforming bone in his body. You don't need to ape that. Go with the people.0 -
Yes I have a spreadsheet, is to stop me from getting Betfair only focus, occasionally I see a red against someone on Betfair and think I might have to green that up, then remember that I've already got it covered with a bet at say Ladbrokestlg86 said:
Out of interest, how do those of you who make lots of bet keep track - do you have a spreadsheet or something?TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair very few of us were expecting a leadership contest in June 2016.Pulpstar said:No idea, I've played this market very poorly.
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.0 -
IanB2 said:
and she's not really a Remainer. She just made a political calculation, like Boris did.CarlottaVance said:
So what? We're all heading for BREXIT.taffys said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.
She's a smart operator. During the campaign she went out of her way to propose leaving the ECJ, to keep the leavers onside. After the campaign she proposed to stay in the ECJ, to reach out to the remainers. And she has got remarkably little stick for her flexibility.
I am getting confused. ECJ or ECHR? I had thought she was talking about the latter.
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Fox????MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Why, for God's sake, why???0 -
Yeah, I was lucky on this one too. Laid Osborne, Gove and Boris way back. Backed May. All small bets but good odds. I've taken some of the May profit and will now let everything run.rottenborough said:Just did a minor cash-out on my Tory bets. My bet from 3 years ago on May has come up trumps (all good things come to those who wait etc etc). Now totally green with still a big pay day on May if she goes all the way.
Thank you Boris!!
On Labour I haven't a clue, and have various small bets on long shots that look most unlikely to pay off.0 -
May will be singing her September Song0
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Opinium have really inflated Labour and downweighted UKIP as well as finding a Labour sample that was 71% Remain.
The leave/remain split at 10/10 to vote in the GE is 56-44.
That suggests that the voters will not back down. It's Scotland YesSNP 2014/2015.0 -
Max, may I suggest some minor changes? I'd abolish DfID (its functions can go to the FCO, with a reduced budget) so that saves having to find a job for the useless Morgan. Please not Osborne at the HO. His time has come and gone and we should let him begone.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education0 -
He wouldn't be anywhere important!rcs1000 said:
Fox????MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Why, for God's sake, why???0 -
Well done. I've bets on Theresa and Gove still running, but by far the biggest were lays on Osborne and Johnson from a year ago, both at close to evens in the aftermath of the general election.rottenborough said:Just did a minor cash-out on my Tory bets. My bet from 3 years ago on May has come up trumps (all good things come to those who wait etc etc). Now totally green with still a big pay day on May if she goes all the way.
Thank you Boris!!
Can't see past May now, Leadsom is too inexperienced as is Crabb, Fox is, well, Fox so that leaves Gove and May.0 -
Welcome home!SouthamObserver said:
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".0 -
I see, I can imagine keeping a track of such things isn't straightforward.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes I have a spreadsheet, is to stop me from getting Betfair only focus, occasionally I see a red against someone on Betfair and think I might have to green that up, then remember that I've already got it covered with a bet at say Ladbrokestlg86 said:
Out of interest, how do those of you who make lots of bet keep track - do you have a spreadsheet or something?TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair very few of us were expecting a leadership contest in June 2016.Pulpstar said:No idea, I've played this market very poorly.
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.0 -
So the final two in the Tory leadership election will probably be:
- The Home Secretary who has totally failed to bring migration down to the tens of thousands.
- Amber Rudd's bag-carrier.
Is it too late to draft Portillo?0 -
Betfair Market :
Which is sooner :
Falconer Resigns or Gove Speech Ends
£6.2bn matched in the last hour ....0 -
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
May and Gove detest each other. If May wins I'm not sure Gove gets anything at all.0 -
ECHR. It's not a big deal anyway, it's the ECJ and the charter of fundamental rights which we need to get away from.MTimT said:IanB2 said:
and she's not really a Remainer. She just made a political calculation, like Boris did.CarlottaVance said:
So what? We're all heading for BREXIT.taffys said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
May is a remainer. They lost.
She's a smart operator. During the campaign she went out of her way to propose leaving the ECJ, to keep the leavers onside. After the campaign she proposed to stay in the ECJ, to reach out to the remainers. And she has got remarkably little stick for her flexibility.
I am getting confused. ECJ or ECHR? I had thought she was talking about the latter.0 -
Why is the FTSE booming (nearly 6600)
Perhaps we should ask one of the experts who predicted it would be a thousand points lower at least
Then again....0 -
May really should be a shoo-in now, and yet, this is the selectorate who gave us IDS.
I can't rule out Gove or Leadsom getting it, if they are one of the final two.
It would be preferable if the others dropped out, and we had a coronation of May next week - and get on with the slow process of sorting out this bloody mess....0 -
Nice one! Lays on Osborne and Boris came good.Sandpit said:
Well done. I've bets on Theresa and Gove still running, but by far the biggest were lays on Osborne and Johnson from a year ago, both at close to evens in the aftermath of the general election.rottenborough said:Just did a minor cash-out on my Tory bets. My bet from 3 years ago on May has come up trumps (all good things come to those who wait etc etc). Now totally green with still a big pay day on May if she goes all the way.
Thank you Boris!!
Can't see past May now, Leadsom is too inexperienced as is Crabb, Fox is, well, Fox so that leaves Gove and May.0 -
Do Gove and May get on?not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
Agree on Greening. Would swap Osborne and Grayling? Leadsom for chancellor would be a possibility - she clearly wants it and might swing behind May in return?0 -
F1 - Practice 2 might as well have been cancelled. Huge storm five minutes into the session, rain still coming down sideways so no cars on the track.0
-
Because the £ is down (foreign earnings), it looks like interest rates will now fall rather than rise, and Carney has been down the cashpoint for some funds to prop up the markettaffys said:Why is the FTSE booming (nearly 6600)
Perhaps we should ask one of the experts who predicted it would be a thousand points lower at least
Then again....0 -
Another vote for May...
@politicshome: Tory eurosceptic Bernard Jenkin reveals he is backing Andrea Leadsom to be PM. #wato0 -
It's not luck. We are highly skilled political punters :-)IanB2 said:
Yeah, I was lucky on this one too. Laid Osborne, Gove and Boris way back. Backed May. All small bets but good odds. I've taken some of the May profit and will now let everything run.rottenborough said:Just did a minor cash-out on my Tory bets. My bet from 3 years ago on May has come up trumps (all good things come to those who wait etc etc). Now totally green with still a big pay day on May if she goes all the way.
Thank you Boris!!
On Labour I haven't a clue, and have various small bets on long shots that look most unlikely to pay off.0 -
Because he gives nutters a hard-on.rcs1000 said:
Fox????MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Why, for God's sake, why???0 -
It also gets complicated when two different markets come into/go out of alignment.tlg86 said:
I see, I can imagine keeping a track of such things isn't straightforward.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes I have a spreadsheet, is to stop me from getting Betfair only focus, occasionally I see a red against someone on Betfair and think I might have to green that up, then remember that I've already got it covered with a bet at say Ladbrokestlg86 said:
Out of interest, how do those of you who make lots of bet keep track - do you have a spreadsheet or something?TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair very few of us were expecting a leadership contest in June 2016.Pulpstar said:No idea, I've played this market very poorly.
I've found a bet from 2007 on Dave's successor. Alan Duncan at 16/1.
For example a lot of my bets on this market prior to May 2015 were on next Tory Leader, since then, a lot of my bets have been on next PM.0 -
May we all join in that Peter's and Lee classic ?NickPalmer said:Welcome home!
And for the Labour Party .... Opportunity Knocks .... and friends I mean that most sincerely ....
0 -
I get the impression Mr Osborne just signs anything the civil servants put in front of him, and spends his days day-dreaming about being the Big Cheese.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
No role.0 -
I would very much like to see Gove stay at Justice. What I have seen of his philosophy and what he is doing there strikes me as a long overdue change in the direction of our treatment of criminals. I consider that vital work so far unfinished.not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
0 -
Didn't work too well for Gordo did it? There should be a vote.Bob__Sykes said:May really should be a shoo-in now, and yet, this is the selectorate who gave us IDS.
I can't rule out Gove or Leadsom getting it, if they are one of the final two.
It would be preferable if the others dropped out, and we had a coronation of May next week - and get on with the slow process of sorting out this bloody mess....0 -
Because she tells people what they want to hear?Richard_Nabavi said:
Precisely. It really is as simple as that.Jonathan said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
0 -
I also doubt Gove would thrive in a May government - he hasn't done himself any favors over the past few weeks...Patrick said:Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
May and Gove detest each other. If May wins I'm not sure Gove gets anything at all.0 -
It's because the pound is so low and because FTSE 100 has a lot of international stocks.taffys said:Why is the FTSE booming (nearly 6600)
Perhaps we should ask one of the experts who predicted it would be a thousand points lower at least
Then again....
Also the Bank of England has hinted that we will get more Quantitative Easier (printing money).
"The one consequence of QE we can rely on, recent history shows, is rising stock markets. "
https://wealth.barclays.com/en_gb/smartinvestor/market-review/what-does-quantitative-easing-mean-for-investors.html
This is not a good thing.0 -
Gove was very nice about Mrs May in questions after his speech today. I'm sure they will find senior Cabinet positions for each other. May promised a Cabinet position for Brexit, that would suit Gove well. Alternatively merge Home and Justice back together and have Gove run that, continuing his really good work with his current brief.IanB2 said:
Do Gove and May get on?not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
Agree on Greening. Would swap Osborne and Grayling? Leadsom for chancellor would be a possibility - she clearly wants it and might swing behind May in return?0 -
-
Minister for Brexit - Priti?not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".0 -
0
-
Nothing to do with the hinted at rate cut making more risky investments more attractive?taffys said:Why is the FTSE booming (nearly 6600)
Perhaps we should ask one of the experts who predicted it would be a thousand points lower at least
Then again....
See the decline in £ at the same time...0 -
Her first major decision I guess. Better to give the treacherous sod something difficult to keep him busy or leave him plotting on the back benches?CarlottaVance said:
I also doubt Gove would thrive in a May government - he hasn't done himself any favors over the past few weeks...Patrick said:Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
May and Gove detest each other. If May wins I'm not sure Gove gets anything at all.0 -
I'm not sure, Gove seems to do his best work in the first six months, then he loses interest.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would very much like to see Gove stay at Justice. What I have seen of his philosophy and what he is doing there strikes me as a long overdue change in the direction of our treatment of criminals. I consider that vital work so far unfinished.not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
0 -
Shame said home is on fire at the moment, but I am sure we can sort it out. :-0NickPalmer said:
Welcome home!SouthamObserver said:
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
Gove and May dislike each other. Mainly caused by Gove attacking her inside govt and in cabinet, usually to support Osborne.Sandpit said:
Gove was very nice about Mrs May in questions after his speech today. I'm sure they will find senior Cabinet positions for each other. May promised a Cabinet position for Brexit, that would suit Gove well.IanB2 said:
Do Gove and May get on?not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
Agree on Greening. Would swap Osborne and Grayling? Leadsom for chancellor would be a possibility - she clearly wants it and might swing behind May in return?
0 -
I spotted the typo: it should be 'shoe-in'Bob__Sykes said:May really should be a shoo-in now, and yet, this is the selectorate who gave us IDS.
I can't rule out Gove or Leadsom getting it, if they are one of the final two.
It would be preferable if the others dropped out, and we had a coronation of May next week - and get on with the slow process of sorting out this bloody mess....0 -
Did you go to the BBA roundtable a couple of days ago about Brexit. Much less glum than I thought it would be.matt said:
Because she tells people what they want to hear?Richard_Nabavi said:
Precisely. It really is as simple as that.Jonathan said:Why take a punt on unknown Leadsom when you have proven May ready to go?
0 -
After the speech. In the speech he took a dig at her for keeping a low profile during the referendum.Sandpit said:
Gove was very nice about Mrs May in questions after his speech today. I'm sure they will find senior Cabinet positions for each other. May promised a Cabinet position for Brexit, that would suit Gove well. Alternatively merge Home and Justice back together and have Gove run that, continuing his really good work with his current brief.IanB2 said:
Do Gove and May get on?not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
Agree on Greening. Would swap Osborne and Grayling? Leadsom for chancellor would be a possibility - she clearly wants it and might swing behind May in return?
twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/748821995895349248
0 -
I'm shocked.Scott_P said:Another vote for May...
@politicshome: Tory eurosceptic Bernard Jenkin reveals he is backing Andrea Leadsom to be PM. #wato0 -
IDS.SandyRentool said:
Minister for Brexit - Priti?not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
0 -
Indeed. Keep your bags packed, Southam, who knows where home might be in a few months time...Jonathan said:
Shame said home is on fire at the moment, but I am sure we can sort it out. :-0NickPalmer said:
Welcome home!SouthamObserver said:
I don't know about that! But I have to say it does feel rather good. Like coming home. Even if it is to a highly dysfunctional family. You still love it in the end, however hard you try not to.Jonathan said:
Brilliant Stuff. That rarest of things, some good news for Labour.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I have decided to stop sniping from the sidelines. I have just rejoined the Labour party. I feel a little bit emotional.NickPalmer said:Tyson, Southam - agreed, all hatchets buried. Our own little broad church!
What's that about rats jumping onto sinking ships? :-)0 -
It would be an interesting ending to this four act opera for Gove to pull out of the members' ballot and take a position under May thereby allowing her to win six weeks sooner than planned.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Gove and May dislike each other. Mainly caused by Gove attacking her inside govt and in cabinet, usually to support Osborne.Sandpit said:
Gove was very nice about Mrs May in questions after his speech today. I'm sure they will find senior Cabinet positions for each other. May promised a Cabinet position for Brexit, that would suit Gove well.IanB2 said:
Do Gove and May get on?not_on_fire said:
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".MaxPB said:[...]
Agree on Greening. Would swap Osborne and Grayling? Leadsom for chancellor would be a possibility - she clearly wants it and might swing behind May in return?0 -
I guess that Gove going on for so long, and covering so many points, he is trying to show that Gove Is A Many Splendored Thing
0 -
Actually I'd have thought Greg Hands (currently First Sec to Treasury) would be an option for Chancellor. I'm sure he's done his master's bidding for Remain, but relatively untainted, and at least knows the ropes pretty damn well.0
-
Now it looks like Osborne has done the dirty on Gove and sent his deputies to May. Gove = fucked.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Gove and May dislike each other. Mainly caused by Gove attacking her inside govt and in cabinet, usually to support Osborne.Sandpit said:
Gove was very nice about Mrs May in questions after his speech today. I'm sure they will find senior Cabinet positions for each other. May promised a Cabinet position for Brexit, that would suit Gove well.IanB2 said:
Do Gove and May get on?not_on_fire said:
You must be joking about Hunt - after taking on and losing to the junior docs he will surely be moved.MaxPB said:From a few days ago with edits:
I've been thinking about what a Theresa May Cabinet could look like, this is what I've come up with, it is a WIP and I'm only listing the significant portfolios:
PM - May
Justice/Lord Chancellor - Gove, also First Secretary of State/DPM
Chancellor - Hammond.
Home Sec - Osborne people know I'm not his greatest fan, but I think he could do well in the Home Office, it would be nice to have someone who is vaguely in favour of civil liberties in there as well. Additionally he recognises the economic gains that highly skilled migrants provide so wouldn't bang on about it too much.
Foreign Sec - Grayling, he is an instinctive outer, and will be up for the task of extricating us from the EU and getting the best diplomatic settlement possible he.
Defence - Fallon, keep the whole MoD as is, I've heard many, many good things about him/his team, from civil servants, a few friends who serve and defence contractors who like his unflappability.
Education - Greening, give her a bigger role, she has learned her lesson at DfID I think.
BIS - Leadsom, she had the best campaign IMO, sharp as they come, she can get Cabinet experience and her smarts will be needed to get the best out of British industry, we also need someone who won't be taken for a fool like Javid has been recently over the Tata/Corus pension liabilities.
Energy - Truss, really it's anyone but Rudd. I would also move the climate change remit to environment.
Environment and CC - Fox, a good sop to the right as he can go to all of the climate change rubbish and swear at the virtue signalling liberals.
Transport - McLoughlin, he seems to be doing a decent job, seems friendly to LHR3 as well.
DWP - Crabb, no need for a change.
Health - Hunt, again, no need for a change.
DfID - Morgan, gets her out of Education
Surely Gove will be "Minister for Brexit".
Agree on Greening. Would swap Osborne and Grayling? Leadsom for chancellor would be a possibility - she clearly wants it and might swing behind May in return?0 -
I think you'll find he doesn't want it. No more playing with trains.SandyRentool said:So the final two in the Tory leadership election will probably be:
- The Home Secretary who has totally failed to bring migration down to the tens of thousands.
- Amber Rudd's bag-carrier.
Is it too late to draft Portillo?0 -
If Austria does vote in the far right for president, who is the bigger headache for the EU, the UK or Austria?0
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