You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?
If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?
Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
*Could* not *would*
Big difference.
We're in control.
So the EU formulates a law with only our initial input, but one that we care about enough to want to adopt. We have no say in the latter or, crucially, voting rounds.
And then it comes out, and we want to adopt it, but Norway vetoes its inclusion into the EEA Agreement. So we cut and paste (your words) the law formulated in a different country with minimal UK input onto our statute books.
Doesn't sound too control-y to me.
You are daft sometimes.
If we don't like the EU version but we want something similar then we draft our own version and pass it as a national regulation.
Capiche?
Charles, this is to participate in the single market. The market with standardised regulations. That kettle spouts must be at least 20mm wide. And you are saying that if we don't like that bit we can amend our law to say that kettle spouts must be a minimum of 18mm wide and then we can sell kettles into the single market?
Yes I am daft sometimes but I seem to be being matched stride for stride on here by many others at other times.
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?
If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?
Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
*Could* not *would*
Big difference.
We're in control.
So the EU formulates a law with only our initial input, but one that we care about enough to want to adopt. We have no say in the latter or, crucially, voting rounds.
And then it comes out, and we want to adopt it, but Norway vetoes its inclusion into the EEA Agreement. So we cut and paste (your words) the law formulated in a different country with minimal UK input onto our statute books.
Doesn't sound too control-y to me.
You are daft sometimes.
If we don't like the EU version but we want something similar then we draft our own version and pass it as a national regulation.
Capiche?
No, Charles I don't think that would be acceptable, it would have to be government by fax if there was an EFTA veto. The regulations have to be identical in nature to the EU ones in order to be recognised, they can't be a more favourable approximation.
Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.
I don't agree.
Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company I have watched the continual downsizing of UK industry over many years. I set up my company with the election of Blair as I figured Labour would support industry. This was a massive mistake which cost my marriage and almost everything I owned. I survived just and now I am thriving internationally.
The Tories don't really understand industry but do less damage than Labour is my general opinion. The last 5 years have been pretty good and my turnover is growing at 10% plus per year.
The UK is poorly set to operate as a standalone country. For example we have one active implantable company which is tiny and maybe only one manufacturer of cardiac catheters. Our economy is highly skewed to a few businesses that rely on international trade. Tearing up our biggest existing trade agreement without new ones in place seems to me suicide.
It will take years to rebuild our industry and will require us to attract talent from across the world. My recent hires include graduates from Greece, Bulgaria and Estonia. Personally I prefer to hire Europeans than from the rest of the world. While wages are low here we suffer from expensive energy, expensive money and property taxes that are probably the highest in Europe. The result is a lack of incentives to buy machinery which uses energy, space and require loans. I cannot see leaving the EU helping this transition as we lose access to good talent that we need.
|The country has had too many conviction politicians and too little attention to detail. I recently joined the Scottish Tories because of Ruth and I will vote for Theresa along with most of the other Tories I know up here.
The Eu is part of the reason we have expensive energy. (Renewable energy directive.)
"Tearing up our biggest existing trade agreement without new ones in place seems to me suicide."
There is a two year negotiating period before the agreement ends. And there appears to be a queue forming of non-EU nations keen on trading with the UK.
Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.
I don't agree.
Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.
This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.
UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
Now Richard Nabavi resorting to stock picking to try support his narrative about Brexit being disastrous. Oh dear.
One of the most stupid comments ever made on PB, and that's in a crowded field.
Before the referendum, I did say that some stocks (those whose revenues were predominantly from the US and elsewhere) would benefit in the short-term from Brexit, and others (those focused on the UK domestic economy) wouldn't. Of course I take no special credit for this statement of the bleedin' obvious, but it seems that the bleedin' obvious isn't obvious enough for some to understand.
On Crabb...there was an interview with him on the radio when he was talking about his christian values.
Why are Christian, bible, thumper, loony roonies so obsessed particularly by sex, gays and porn and drugs. He managed to bring up all three in the interview.
You cannot have a Christian nut job, whose obsessed by sex and gay men, porn, drugs getting anywhere near power. You just cannot.
He won't get anywhere near winning. What he's doing is raising his profile. Always happens in these elections
How does that theory work with Liam Fox? Last time I confronted anything like Dr Fox, I was scraping it off my shoe which happens all too often in Italy. Anti social Italians and their dogs......
55% for May v 37% for Boris amongst Tory members is a crushing May victory, there is a danger for Boris now he may not even make the final round let alone win it, Leadsom or Fox could replace him as the Leave candidate
You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?
If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?
Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
*Could* not *would*
Big difference.
We're in control.
I really don't think EEA is going to happen for Britain. No-one will be able to tell us what to do without asking first. But that's the EEA's way of working.
So when Merkel says no cherry-picking on the single market and no negotiation prior to the Article 50 countdown, she is either holding out for Article 50 NEVER to be triggered and Britain's EU membership to continue by default, or it's a locked down trade deal.
No, my understanding is that the Germans want us to accept a deal that maintains all four freedoms or not have a deal. The EEA is a ready made solution that can work for us in the short to medium term, possibly even the long term. I think even the Frogs are on board given their stance on Calais and Sturgeon. No one wants to piss the other side off, which is why I wish someone would lock Nigel Farage up in a basement for a few months.
The problem is that the EEA entails the UK taking whatever has been decided in Brussels and implementing it in law. No discussions. Charles on this forum (quite reasonably) doubted that. EEA is a typical Euro Fudge, or a "pretend and extend" measure. Everyone can sign up to it in the UK and on the Continent in principle. But as it gets close to becoming reality, Merkel or a successor with a similar outlook would see that "no cherry picking" rule could never be enforced by the EEA. Indeed it's an invitation to cherry pick. As they are clever people, they almost certainly know this already
Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.
I don't agree.
Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company
We should talk some day
Would be delighted. You can reach me at Andersen Caledonia / Jonathan
Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.
I don't agree.
Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company I have watched the continual downsizing of UK industry over many years. I set up my company with the election of Blair as I figured Labour would support industry. This was a massive mistake which cost my marriage and almost everything I owned. I survived just and now I am thriving internationally.
The Tories don't really understand industry but do less damage than Labour is my general opinion. The last 5 years have been pretty good and my turnover is growing at 10% plus per year.
The UK is poorly set to operate as a standalone country. For example we have one active implantable company which is tiny and maybe only one manufacturer of cardiac catheters. Our economy is highly skewed to a few businesses that rely on international trade. Tearing up our biggest existing trade agreement without new ones in place seems to me suicide.
It will take years to rebuild our industry and will require us to attract talent from across the world. My recent hires include graduates from Greece, Bulgaria and Estonia. Personally I prefer to hire Europeans than from the rest of the world. While wages are low here we suffer from expensive energy, expensive money and property taxes that are probably the highest in Europe. The result is a lack of incentives to buy machinery which uses energy, space and require loans. I cannot see leaving the EU helping this transition as we lose access to good talent that we need.
|The country has had too many conviction politicians and too little attention to detail. I recently joined the Scottish Tories because of Ruth and I will vote for Theresa along with most of the other Tories I know up here.
slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
18-24 was 36.4%.
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix
If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!
The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
We can if we voted!
Yes. It's one of those things where I just don't know how to fix the problem, as I don't understand it. I get not caring about politics, or politicians, of widespread apathy, but even that as an excuse only extends so far. I know 60 year olds who've never voted, voted in the referendum, but insist they won't ever vote again as they won't vote for a politicians, why can't the young be like that at least? More of them at any rate - honestly, I'm not even 30 and the young demographic are turning me into an old grouch.
Or that might be spending time on PB surrounded by octogenarians
At this point i'd say compulsory voting is the only option if you wanted to increase youth voting (or voting levels generally). Seems to work OK in Australia, I don't see why it couldn't apply here. I think voting should be viewed as a duty, like jury duty, so you need to have an opt-out reason not to vote (you can always spoil your ballot if you want to protest) or you pay a fine.
Other than that, if the youth didn't vote in this, nothing (including corbyn) will bring them out en masse.
You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?
If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?
Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
*Could* not *would*
Big difference.
We're in control.
So the EU formulates a law with only our initial input, but one that we care about enough to want to adopt. We have no say in the latter or, crucially, voting rounds.
And then it comes out, and we want to adopt it, but Norway vetoes its inclusion into the EEA Agreement. So we cut and paste (your words) the law formulated in a different country with minimal UK input onto our statute books.
Doesn't sound too control-y to me.
You are daft sometimes.
If we don't like the EU version but we want something similar then we draft our own version and pass it as a national regulation.
Capiche?
Charles, this is to participate in the single market. The market with standardised regulations. That kettle spouts must be at least 20mm wide. And you are saying that if we don't like that bit we can amend our law to say that kettle spouts must be a minimum of 18mm wide and then we can sell kettles into the single market?
Yes I am daft sometimes but I seem to be being matched stride for stride on here by many others at other times.
If EU spouts must be at least 20mm wide and UK ones must be at least 18mm wide, then any UK manufacturer wanting to sell into the Single Market can choose to manufacture to European standards (as EU kettles would be compliant with UK regulations).
Any kettle manufacturer who doesn't want to sell to the EU can make 18mm wide spouts.
It's more difficult when UK regulations are stricter than EU regulations, but then our politicians should make a decision and face the consequences
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
I am hoping....for me....getting the best deal for Britain, and keeping us part of Europe is just so much more important than party politics. We have to mitigate the monumental clusterfuck that happened last week.
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.
This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.
UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
If I'd heard May's speech before the referendum, I might very well have changed my mind. It was extremely cogent. I guess Remain thought it was more effective to keep calling me a racist Little Englander.
She made a very interesting point that I've not seen made elsewhere. With Brexit, the free trade faction of the EU won't have the 35% blocking threshold that it has with us as a member.
Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.
The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.
This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.
UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.
UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.
slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
18-24 was 36.4%.
I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix
If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!
The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
We can if we voted! But yes I see what you mean, the meme that the young get screwed over by the old is bollocks, the young are every bit as able to vote as the old, they just don't care (or rather, a small minority care very deeply, visibly, and loudly, hiding the uncaring majority).
Please stick around, we don't have many youngsters on the site. While I'm not precisely sure of the demographic split, it feels pretty middle aged/old.
slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?
The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
We wanted to be involved but obviously had no data so hard to target our voters.
We got some addresses to target in the last week. These looked more like market research targeting than registered/canvassed supporters.
If we had ukip data we might have had an even better vote share, but then again Nigel Garage is toxic for most voters so swings and roundabouts really Also its questionable how good ukips data is as they always fail on the ground game anyway.
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.
This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.
UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.
UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.
If Labour continue to exist that is.
UKIP are clearly a threat to Labour but it would be complacent to deny they are a threat to the Tories too in some parts of the country, especially seaside towns
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.
This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.
UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.
UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.
If Labour continue to exist that is.
UKIP are clearly a threat to Labour but it would be complacent to deny they are a threat to the Tories too in some parts of the country, especially seaside towns
I saw a map of the top 30 places with voters who are 65+ and they are all on the coast. Why is that is that where people go to retire?
We need to execute the odd General or two for treason in my view. If we explain to them that really they should have been shot anyway in any reasonable military arrangement, but that now we've come to our senses and realised our mistake that happily not only will it serve the course of justice, but their deaths will also serve the best interests of HM armed forces then I'm sure they'll happily form an orderly and cheerful line...
Now Richard Nabavi resorting to stock picking to try support his narrative about Brexit being disastrous. Oh dear.
One of the most stupid comments ever made on PB, and that's in a crowded field.
Before the referendum, I did say that some stocks (those whose revenues were predominantly from the US and elsewhere) would benefit in the short-term from Brexit, and others (those focused on the UK domestic economy) wouldn't. Of course I take no special credit for this statement of the bleedin' obvious, but it seems that the bleedin' obvious isn't obvious enough for some to understand.
100% correct - buffoons refusing to accept anything negative is possible.
As someone who voted to leave, I am somewhat dismayed to see the narrative on PB.COM over the last few days. There is, understandably, a great deal of emotion from both sides but we voted to leave the EU and, as far as I know there were 3 reasons:
1) Sovereignty: As soon as A50 is fulfilled, if the governing body do something I don't like, I have a meaningful vote that can contribute to remove them. Also, we can then start to get decisions made by our supreme court rather than the ECJ. If that means, to begin with, we follow existing ECJ interpretation, fine. 2) Immigration: We voted against uncontrolled immigration, there was nothing racist in my vote whatsoever, and we can either implement a points based (Australian) system or we adjust our benefits system so that we are seen as a more desirable place for those people that want to come here to better themselves and contribute to our economy and less of a charity hand out country. 3) Economy: We would like to continue to trade with the rest of the world (including the EU) but appreciate that we would not enjoy (!) the fruits of the EU membership. So, what is the worst, the absolute worst case, of being outside of the EU/EEA/EFTA.
It all comes down to that last question and the answer to that, for me, is what will decide whether I will have buyers remorse (as a Leave voter) or not. For instance, what is the impact of "Passporting" and is it a realistic issue or is it a risk (i.e. theoretical threats to our Financial Services which may or may not come to pass depending on the outcome of negotiations and current infrastructure of the City vs European locations). Finally, what is the impact of Common External Tariffs should we not strike an EEA/EFTA agreement: a. UK accepts CET rates of EU and imposes the same on imports from EU i. Britain exports to the EU based on Common External Tariffs ii. Imports to the EU from other countries coming via UK would continue to attract CET rates but UK doesn’t levy further rates and passes goods and CET on to EU iii. Imports to UK from other countries would no longer attract CET and would therefore be cheaper to UK consumers iv. Exports from UK to EU would now attract CET. How much would this increase export costs.
For me, it is the answer to these last few points regarding CET that should determine our negotiation stance (I may of course be totally wrong). If we went in to a negotiation with the EU stating that we would accept CET rates, how badly would that impact our economy. Personally I have no idea but I am sure someone on this site can inform us.
As this is a betting site, we would be far better educated if we asked, and answered, these questions as opposed to frothing off. I only ever trade in FX and I have clear views (as you will see from my post last Thursday on this site) on where those markets are going.
It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.
That is quite an achievement.
Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.
If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.
I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...
But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.
This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.
UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.
UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.
If Labour continue to exist that is.
UKIP are clearly a threat to Labour but it would be complacent to deny they are a threat to the Tories too in some parts of the country, especially seaside towns
I saw a map of the top 30 places with voters who are 65+ and they are all on the coast. Why is that is that where people go to retire?
Always has been, the sea air and sea view always popular with the retired
'@tnewtondunn: Excl: EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker plotting to seize control of Brexit negotiations to hit UK with a tough deal; https://t.co/CTNxYh7SGG'
Who else did you expect we would be negotiating with ?
Comments
Yes I am daft sometimes but I seem to be being matched stride for stride on here by many others at other times.
She's not – Boris is still the marginal favourite (2.25 vs 2.75)
However, presumably she should get a lot of the establishment vote - some of whom may not declare - eg the likes of Cameron, Osborne etc.
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy
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"Tearing up our biggest existing trade agreement without new ones in place seems to me suicide."
There is a two year negotiating period before the agreement ends. And there appears to be a queue forming of non-EU nations keen on trading with the UK.
This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.
UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
Before the referendum, I did say that some stocks (those whose revenues were predominantly from the US and elsewhere) would benefit in the short-term from Brexit, and others (those focused on the UK domestic economy) wouldn't. Of course I take no special credit for this statement of the bleedin' obvious, but it seems that the bleedin' obvious isn't obvious enough for some to understand.
Other than that, if the youth didn't vote in this, nothing (including corbyn) will bring them out en masse.
Any kettle manufacturer who doesn't want to sell to the EU can make 18mm wide spouts.
It's more difficult when UK regulations are stricter than EU regulations, but then our politicians should make a decision and face the consequences
But....it will have to wait until the morrow.
Nite all
twitter.com/welchcomms/status/747842426035912705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
She made a very interesting point that I've not seen made elsewhere. With Brexit, the free trade faction of the EU won't have the 35% blocking threshold that it has with us as a member.
Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.
The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/29/toryleadership-campaign-update/
And Labour is over.
UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.
If Labour continue to exist that is.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Also its questionable how good ukips data is as they always fail on the ground game anyway.
We need to execute the odd General or two for treason in my view. If we explain to them that really they should have been shot anyway in any reasonable military arrangement, but that now we've come to our senses and realised our mistake that happily not only will it serve the course of justice, but their deaths will also serve the best interests of HM armed forces then I'm sure they'll happily form an orderly and cheerful line...
Oh?
we voted to leave the EU and, as far as I know there were 3 reasons:
1) Sovereignty: As soon as A50 is fulfilled, if the governing body do something I don't like, I have a meaningful vote that can contribute to remove them. Also, we can then start to get decisions made by our supreme court rather than the ECJ. If that means, to begin with, we follow existing ECJ interpretation, fine.
2) Immigration: We voted against uncontrolled immigration, there was nothing racist in my vote whatsoever, and we can either implement a points based (Australian) system or we adjust our benefits system so that we are seen as a more desirable place for those people that want to come here to better themselves and contribute to our economy and less of a charity hand out country.
3) Economy: We would like to continue to trade with the rest of the world (including the EU) but appreciate that we would not enjoy (!) the fruits of the EU membership. So, what is the worst, the absolute worst case, of being outside of the EU/EEA/EFTA.
It all comes down to that last question and the answer to that, for me, is what will decide whether I will have buyers remorse (as a Leave voter) or not. For instance, what is the impact of "Passporting" and is it a realistic issue or is it a risk (i.e. theoretical threats to our Financial Services which may or may not come to pass depending on the outcome of negotiations and current infrastructure of the City vs European locations).
Finally, what is the impact of Common External Tariffs should we not strike an EEA/EFTA agreement:
a. UK accepts CET rates of EU and imposes the same on imports from EU
i. Britain exports to the EU based on Common External Tariffs
ii. Imports to the EU from other countries coming via UK would continue to attract CET rates but UK doesn’t levy further rates and passes goods and CET on to EU
iii. Imports to UK from other countries would no longer attract CET and would therefore be cheaper to UK consumers
iv. Exports from UK to EU would now attract CET. How much would this increase export costs.
For me, it is the answer to these last few points regarding CET that should determine our negotiation stance (I may of course be totally wrong). If we went in to a negotiation with the EU stating that we would accept CET rates, how badly would that impact our economy. Personally I have no idea but I am sure someone on this site can inform us.
As this is a betting site, we would be far better educated if we asked, and answered, these questions as opposed to frothing off. I only ever trade in FX and I have clear views (as you will see from my post last Thursday on this site) on where those markets are going.
'@tnewtondunn: Excl: EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker plotting to seize control of Brexit negotiations to hit UK with a tough deal; https://t.co/CTNxYh7SGG'
Who else did you expect we would be negotiating with ?