Andrew Neil @afneil Moody's downgrades British banks. British bank stocks rise for 2nd day in a row. Does anybody care about ratings agencies these days?
Just been to a school meeting in leafyish north London, about my daughter and her cohort going up to Year 7 etc etc
Lots of very north Londony parents there - architects, journalists, teachers, academics - sort of meeting where a parent uses the word "algorithm" and everyone understands and nods.
i.e. probably 80% Guardian readers and graduates.
So I expected them to be in tears and despair, yet not. They seemed sanguine. When I asked a couple of them about the vote they smiled, a little ruefully, like it was no worse than England losing the footie, then they chatted happily about something else.
Hmm. Is this stoical middle England showing its mettle, and I am an hysterical twit, or are they just completely uninformed, and my idiotic hysteria is still justified?
Intriguing.
I think you've answered your own question here Sean. But good on you for sharing your emotions honestly - too few do!
As this forum clearly shows. The idea that a vote for Leave is a vote for a Red BNP prospectus of zero immigration, unlimited welfare payments and an ultra rich NHS staffed by Harley Street doctors and supermodel nurses is palpable nonsense.
Yes, I'm glad that you recognise that. Just had a conversation with my leaver sister about the EEA, she seems happy with the compromise. She voted because of immigration but recognises that the economic hit would be too large to leave the single market.
I'm disgusted by ethnic minorities voting Leave purley on immigration - shows a complete lack of awareness and the focus of the Leave campaign - turkeys votng for Xmas comes to mind.
My parents voted Leave which they now regret. They voted early by post, if they had voted on 23rd June they would have voted Remain.
Racist attacks are on the increase as the bigots are now emboldened by the Leave vote. Speaking to my cousin who lives in Huddersfield today and he has witnessed a significant increase in racist language. Even where I live in the London bubble, I am a little nervous understandably.
About one third of BME voters supported Brexit. There's nothing at all irrational about that.
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky FTSE 250 (better gauge of domestic economy than 100) now back above Feb lows. But in $ terms lowest since mid-2013 10:45 AM - 29 Jun 2016
OK so let us take numbers expressed in Sterling £ for a mainly domestic list of companies and if they do not present the picture we want, we convert them into US$ to make them present the picture we want..... What is next? Expressing UK shares in terms of the Bolivar, if that makes it look bad for Brexit?
It's all a bit complicated for you is it? Why not start banging on about immigration then? Or how ugly Sarah Woollaston is?
19.47: On the NEC and nominations: Ken Livingstone announced that he has stood down from the ruling body, as he is currently unable to attend meetings due to being suspended. His standing down means that his position is filled (until the next election this summer) by the person with the most votes from last time who did not get elected.
That person is… Corbynite Darren Williams. This means that when the NEC meet to decide the leadership election rules, there will be one more person to vote in favour of Corbyn being put on the ballot automatically. It is, as one source described it, “a game changer” for the fine balance of the committee.
Andrew Neil @afneil Moody's downgrades British banks. British bank stocks rise for 2nd day in a row. Does anybody care about ratings agencies these days?
Remember that Moodys and Fitch both downgraded the UK back in 2013. They're still suffering from the CDS hangover.
If we're going to be 'out and into the world', what matters is our trade performance, our current account, our borrowing costs and the exchange rate. It's back to the 60s.
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
Just back from attending the Norfolk Show, highlight of our social calendar here in the countryside. I asked 89 people amongst the 'Great and the Good" the 'forced choice" of who would they support Boris or Theresa. Astonishingly 87 expressed a preference for Theresa. When I told the second Boris-supporter who the first one was, what changed her mind. There was a 50/50 mix of inners and outers.
Yesterday in my Council Group, with a majority of Brexiters, only one opted for Boris.
On this show , Boris cannot even start thinking of taking the provinces for granted and has a real mountain to climb to make progress in the sticks.
Bunnco Your Man on the Spot
Worrying. I thought being a Remain supporter would be a handicap with Con members.
Yeah, exciting week, but let's not make it a drama that it isn't.
The people have spoken, the EU will be left. Following this a trade deal will be reached which the people will either accept or reject.
Your last line is ambiguous to me - are you in the camp the deal needs voting on, or the people will accept or reject it through a GE vote after the fact?
Referendum seems best option, but not to revisit last week
Deal needs to be voted on but it's a binary choice, leave with deal or leave with nothing. It's leave either way, there's no going back on that.
Anecdote (3): At the event I attended today, there was a speaker from the European Commission. The chair of the session dryly said "Welcome to the UK!".
If JC gives Mcdonnell the nod, do you think corbyn's support transfers straight across?
Basically, how much of Corbyn's vote is personal rather than ideological?
I don't think the bulk of the PLP would want McDonnell on the ballot (because he would probably win), but would be OK with Lewis or Catwoman.
Maybe by Friday, they would accept McDonnell.
I'm stil holding out hope for Clive Lewis. It seems the only way out of this insane mess.
My perspective, strengthened from having read Owen Jones' latest article on Medium: JC's team, and most of his supporters, aren't dedicated to Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party into the next election. Rather, they (and I include myself in this) are determined that there be no return to the spin-driven politics of 2000s New Labour, and complete inability in 2010 and 2015 to offer a meaningful alternative to neoliberal ideology that had demonstrably failed.
Even among many fervent Momentum types, I think there's a recognition that JC has certain inadequacies as a campaigning leader. It is, after all, widely known that he only stood last summer because he was talked into taking his turn as the 'left candidate'.
But JC is the leader. He, and only he, can take that incumbent's place on the ballot paper. If he resigns, all is lost.
Unless, one of JC's loyal allies can be nominated, so that the contest cannot be stitched up to freeze out the anti-austerity, anti-war left. Once that candidate's nomination is irrevocably in place, I see no reason why JC cannot then resign and instruct his supporters to back the continuity candidate. Essentially, bringing forward the plan described by Owen Jones from 2018.
Nothing has changed except the frontman, but the MPs who have resigned in this hare-brained coup can serve under the new leader where serving under a renewed Corbyn leadership would be untenable.
McDonnell is perhaps the obvious choice, but he has a lot of the same broad-appeal-limiting baggage as Corbyn. Clive Lewis ticks a lot of boxes: prior tour of duty in Afghanistan, media savvy, lots of youth appeal, grew up on a council estate. I've seen others flag him up on here, I'm struggling to see a down-side.
But, it would require much of the PLP to put their egos to one side and respect JC's mandate from the members, so it probably won't happen.
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
19.47: On the NEC and nominations: Ken Livingstone announced that he has stood down from the ruling body, as he is currently unable to attend meetings due to being suspended. His standing down means that his position is filled (until the next election this summer) by the person with the most votes from last time who did not get elected.
That person is… Corbynite Darren Williams. This means that when the NEC meet to decide the leadership election rules, there will be one more person to vote in favour of Corbyn being put on the ballot automatically. It is, as one source described it, “a game changer” for the fine balance of the committee.
And Ken's last act in the Labour Party is to destroy it.... Well done that man...
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
Would you prefer it to be in the hands of the Momentum yoof?
And as I wrote earlier it will be the biggest political kamikazi jump since Cameron's. The Eagle will turn out to be a prize pigeon. 1. No charisma. 2. Weak voice. 3. Faltering manner in debate.
Now if she were only like Nicola.................................!
Unless, one of JC's loyal allies can be nominated, so that the contest cannot be stitched up to freeze out the anti-austerity, anti-war left. Once that candidate's nomination is irrevocably in place, I see no reason why JC cannot then resign and instruct his supporters to back the continuity candidate. Essentially, bringing forward the plan described by Owen Jones from 2018.
Very interesting - if Angela gets the 50, presumably someone else can also challenge if they can get 50 too? Clive Lewis does seem the obvious choice and he has the considerable advantage of carrying my money, albeit at a what is now a poor 33/1.
If JC gives Mcdonnell the nod, do you think corbyn's support transfers straight across?
Basically, how much of Corbyn's vote is personal rather than ideological?
I don't think the bulk of the PLP would want McDonnell on the ballot (because he would probably win), but would be OK with Lewis or Catwoman.
Maybe by Friday, they would accept McDonnell.
I'm stil holding out hope for Clive Lewis. It seems the only way out of this insane mess.
My perspective, strengthened from having read Owen Jones' latest article on Medium: JC's team, and most of his supporters, aren't dedicated to Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party into the next election. Rather, they (and I include myself in this) are determined that there be no return to the spin-driven politics of 2000s New Labour, and complete inability in 2010 and 2015 to offer a meaningful alternative to neoliberal ideology that had demonstrably failed.
Even among many fervent Momentum types, I think there's a recognition that JC has certain inadequacies as a campaigning leader. It is, after all, widely known that he only stood last summer because he was talked into taking his turn as the 'left candidate'.
But JC is the leader. He, and only he, can take that incumbent's place on the ballot paper. If he resigns, all is lost.
Unless, one of JC's loyal allies can be nominated, so that the contest cannot be stitched up to freeze out the anti-austerity, anti-war left. Once that candidate's nomination is irrevocably in place, I see no reason why JC cannot then resign and instruct his supporters to back the continuity candidate. Essentially, bringing forward the plan described by Owen Jones from 2018.
Nothing has changed except the frontman, but the MPs who have resigned in this hare-brained coup can serve under the new leader where serving under a renewed Corbyn leadership would be untenable.
McDonnell is perhaps the obvious choice, but he has a lot of the same broad-appeal-limiting baggage as Corbyn. Clive Lewis ticks a lot of boxes: prior tour of duty in Afghanistan, media savvy, lots of youth appeal, grew up on a council estate. I've seen others flag him up on here, I'm struggling to see a down-side.
But, it would require much of the PLP to put their egos to one side and respect JC's mandate from the members, so it probably won't happen.
Agreed I mentioned this earlier and would be my best case scenario.
Although of course he is less well known and would not retain all Corbynite vote so I would be scared of ending up with a right winger
Yes, but it's a US technology index, driven by things other than Brexit. In any case it's easy to see that the markets and exchange rates took a hit when the result came through but it's impossible to compare where they are post referendum with where they would be if the result had gone the other way.
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I think Labour is likely doomed now. An incredible collapse. They will become the rump party of London and the metrosexuals, as the Liberals became the legacy party of Celts and non-conformists.
And still NPXMP doesn't see this disaster, staring him in the face.
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I think Labour is likely doomed now. An incredible collapse. They will become the rump party of London and the metrosexuals, as the Liberals became the legacy party of Celts and non-conformists.
And still NPXMP doesn't see this disaster, staring him in the face.
Quite right - read handmouse's post above for a clear insight to how the far left thinks. They just want ideological purity. The future of the party doesn't matter to them.
Just been to a school meeting in leafyish north London, about my daughter and her cohort going up to Year 7 etc etc
Lots of very north Londony parents there - architects, journalists, teachers, academics - sort of meeting where a parent uses the word "algorithm" and everyone understands and nods.
i.e. probably 80% Guardian readers and graduates.
So I expected them to be in tears and despair, yet not. They seemed sanguine. When I asked a couple of them about the vote they smiled, a little ruefully, like it was no worse than England losing the footie, then they chatted happily about something else.
Hmm. Is this stoical middle England showing its mettle, and I am an hysterical twit, or are they just completely uninformed, and my idiotic hysteria is still justified?
Intriguing.
If you're not a stock market pundit or a currency speculator, nothing has, as yet, happened. Just an metric buttload of 'this might happen and 'that might happen'.
My anecdote for the day: my Mum has completed her political journey from being tribal Labour to thinking Daniel Hannan is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Truly, we are living in the Age of Miracles.
Yes, I'd really like to believe they're right and I'm wrong. Trouble is I think I'm right. The bad shit isn't here yet, but it's in the post.
Hmm, I'm not trying to persuade you, just musing about this. There's almost certainly going to be a mild recession (though I can't find the primary figures on that Credit Suisse forecast quoted earlier).
Leaving that aside, there are currently 31.6 million people in work. There were a whole bunch of reports about the number of EU dependent jobs; anywhere from 3 million to 4.4 million. Not all directly dependent necessarily, and the split is arguable. Let's say that up to 12% of the workforce depend on the EU in one way or another. While there might be spillover effects, at least that puts it into perspective.
The biggest factor is going to be confidence (business and consumer). It just comes down to whether people are prepared to carry on spending or investing. It's too early to say.
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I agree with your sentance but think the word Corbyn should be replaced by PLP
I actually think its irrelevant . The die is case and UKIP are going to slaughter them up north as they target the WWC (and WWC none) voters with the following:-
1) If you don't usually vote look what happened when you voted in the referendum, you won - vote UKIP 2) If you did vote look at what happened last time - vote UKIP
That alone is going to be enough to win 50% of the seats in the North East....
Just back from attending the Norfolk Show, highlight of our social calendar here in the countryside. I asked 89 people amongst the 'Great and the Good" the 'forced choice" of who would they support Boris or Theresa. Astonishingly 87 expressed a preference for Theresa. When I told the second Boris-supporter who the first one was, what changed her mind. There was a 50/50 mix of inners and outers.
Yesterday in my Council Group, with a majority of Brexiters, only one opted for Boris.
On this show , Boris cannot even start thinking of taking the provinces for granted and has a real mountain to climb to make progress in the sticks.
Bunnco Your Man on the Spot
Worrying. I thought being a Remain supporter would be a handicap with Con members.
Fingers crossed for Leadsom!
I was at a Shires do the other day. The guest speaker and host both prominent in their way, a picture of each you would find in the dictionary under: "true blue Conservative, couldn't get bluer".
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
Yes because they cannot impose new rules on us just as we cannot impose new rules on them.
Sounds great to me.
Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each have a veto over our single market access.
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I think Labour is likely doomed now. An incredible collapse. They will become the rump party of London and the metrosexuals, as the Liberals became the legacy party of Celts and non-conformists.
And still NPXMP doesn't see this disaster, staring him in the face.
I wouldn't be so certain of that. I appreciate that it looks bad but time remains. We rush to judgement very quickly sometimes.
I do think Nick Palmer (elected, I'd suggest, because of Tony Blair not because of personal virtues) overestimates his own self worth.
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I think Labour is likely doomed now. An incredible collapse. They will become the rump party of London and the metrosexuals, as the Liberals became the legacy party of Celts and non-conformists.
And still NPXMP doesn't see this disaster, staring him in the face.
It's bizarre. Oh well. What can you do.
Form a new party. There is no talking to the eurosceptic far left. They seem determined to destroy the party in the name of ideological purity
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
Yes because they cannot impose new rules on us just as we cannot impose new rules on them.
Sounds great to me.
Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each have a veto over our single market access.
Just back from attending the Norfolk Show, highlight of our social calendar here in the countryside. I asked 89 people amongst the 'Great and the Good" the 'forced choice" of who would they support Boris or Theresa. Astonishingly 87 expressed a preference for Theresa. When I told the second Boris-supporter who the first one was, what changed her mind. There was a 50/50 mix of inners and outers.
Yesterday in my Council Group, with a majority of Brexiters, only one opted for Boris.
On this show , Boris cannot even start thinking of taking the provinces for granted and has a real mountain to climb to make progress in the sticks.
Bunnco Your Man on the Spot
Worrying. I thought being a Remain supporter would be a handicap with Con members.
Fingers crossed for Leadsom!
I was at a Shires do the other day. The guest speaker and host both prominent in their way, a picture of each you would find in the dictionary under: "true blue Conservative, couldn't get bluer".
Speaker for Remain, host for Leave.
Monmouthshire split almost 50:50. Remain just edged it.
We are all being very civilized about the matter; detente has been declared. My dog walking fraternity are just rolling their eyes as Westminster once again fails to get to grips with reality.
I wouldn't be so certain of that. I appreciate that it looks bad but time remains. We rush to judgement very quickly sometimes.
I do think Nick Palmer (elected, I'd suggest, because of Tony Blair not because of personal virtues) overestimates his own self worth.
I think others overestimate my worth, frankly. As I was saying to Southam earlier, why is he so concerned with the opinion of an ex-MP who hasn't been in Parliament for 6 years?
I comment here as a longstanding party member with an interest in what's going on and a mixture of pragmatic background and support for a leftward move. As such I'm probably typical of a certain type of member, but I claim no particular authority and will be perrfectly happy to be seen as just another contributor.
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I agree with your sentance but think the word Corbyn should be replaced by PLP
You are wrong, no one man is more important than the party and the 9 million voters who depend on it.
Didnt say they were. Apportioning the blame on JC is cretinous
Er no. He has been a dismal leader, a far left eurosceptic in a moderate centre-left Europhile party that has helped deliver the biggest victory for the right in a generation with his equivocating and nonexistent campaigning. He is now failing to observe constitutional precedent as Loto despite losing a NCV by 172-40. The guy has a galactic sized ego and will condemn the country to a generation of Tory government, and destroy the party.
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
Yes because they cannot impose new rules on us just as we cannot impose new rules on them.
Sounds great to me.
Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each have a veto over our single market access.
They have a veto over our joining EFTA. Of course they do. They do not have a veto over our remaining part of the EEA as long as we join EFTA.
You do seem to be getting more and more desperate as tim,e goes on here Topping and clutching at more and more straws.
Do they have a veto over what EU legislation/regulation gets adopted into the EEA agreement?
That is my point.
All EFTA members have a veto over the expansion of the EEA agreement (hence the Norwegian refusal to allow it to include oil and gas legislation)
They also all have a veto over individual directives but no one has yet used it. Instead they have basically ignored legislation they don't agree with whilst warning that if pushed they will veto it. They have done this with both railways and postal directives. The EU has not pushed back so far for fear of provoking the veto.
Yeah, exciting week, but let's not make it a drama that it isn't.
The people have spoken, the EU will be left. Following this a trade deal will be reached which the people will either accept or reject.
Your last line is ambiguous to me - are you in the camp the deal needs voting on, or the people will accept or reject it through a GE vote after the fact?
Referendum seems best option, but not to revisit last week
Deal needs to be voted on but it's a binary choice, leave with deal or leave with nothing. It's leave either way, there's no going back on that.
.
A post that shows just how scared Leave are that the country has changed its mind.........
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I agree with your sentance but think the word Corbyn should be replaced by PLP
You are wrong, no one man is more important than the party and the 9 million voters who depend on it.
Didnt say they were. Apportioning the blame on JC is cretinous
No need to be rude. Responsibility is the price of leadership. This is Corbyns Labour, the blame is his and no-one else's.
Also his insane followers, some of whom are completely vile (not my Corbynite friends, they're just naive simpletons)
At the last rally there was a man with a charming t-shirt on. If you replaced the word Blairites with immigrants he would most likely have ended up in court.
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
isn't it marvellous to have our sovereignty back so that a small group of mainly superannuated OAP's can "take back control" and decide the direction of the country for the next couple of generations. (I'm an OAP so believe me I know how totally out of touch with the modern world most are).
Yeah, exciting week, but let's not make it a drama that it isn't.
The people have spoken, the EU will be left. Following this a trade deal will be reached which the people will either accept or reject.
Your last line is ambiguous to me - are you in the camp the deal needs voting on, or the people will accept or reject it through a GE vote after the fact?
Referendum seems best option, but not to revisit last week
Deal needs to be voted on but it's a binary choice, leave with deal or leave with nothing. It's leave either way, there's no going back on that.
.
A post that shows just how scared Leave are that the country has changed its mind.........
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I think Labour is likely doomed now. An incredible collapse. They will become the rump party of London and the metrosexuals, as the Liberals became the legacy party of Celts and non-conformists.
And still NPXMP doesn't see this disaster, staring him in the face.
It's bizarre. Oh well. What can you do.
The fact you agree with ST is bizzare. Lewis or Burnham would give the PLP a chance of defeating JC IMO
As i have already said i would vote for either of those two to save the party.
Cant think of anyone else though.
AE is surely scraping the barrel a poor4th of 5 in deputy contest 9 months ago FFS beaten by Flint Creasey and TW
@paulwaugh: Rumour that Owen Smith has had change of heart and may run for Labour leadership.
Please please please... Owen Smith £2,763.33
"On 9 January 2016, he voiced an interest in eventually standing for Labour Leadership, saying it would be an "incredible honour and privilege" to do the job." (Wikipedia)
@iainjwatson: Andy Burnham hasn't asked Jeremy Corbyn to resign and isn't at this stage resigning himself
LOL - so just a cosy cup of early evening tea while watching the cricket then? Not a single backbone between the lot of them!
Well if AB could be persuaded to run he would have best chance.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
But would you now vote Anyone But Corbyn?
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.
Because of Corbyns actions, the future is bleak for Labour however it plays out. It will be a miracle if Labour can pull it back.
I think Labour is likely doomed now. An incredible collapse. They will become the rump party of London and the metrosexuals, as the Liberals became the legacy party of Celts and non-conformists.
And still NPXMP doesn't see this disaster, staring him in the face.
It's bizarre. Oh well. What can you do.
The fact you agree with ST is bizzare. Lewis or Burnham would give the PLP a chance of defeating JC IMO
As i have already said i would vote for either of those two to save the party.
Cant think of anyone else though.
AE is surely scraping the barrel a poor4th of 5 in deputy contest 9 months ago FFS beaten by Flint Creasey and TW
The party is dead with Corbyn. Because of that and only because of that literally anyone is better now.
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
isn't it marvellous to have our sovereignty back so that a small group of mainly superannuated OAP's can "take back control" and decide the direction of the country for the next couple of generations. (I'm an OAP so believe me I know how totally out of touch with the modern world most are).
If the young voters can't be arsed to get out and vote they have no right to complain.
I have had to put up with being part of the EU for 43 years because I was too young to vote last time. I hopefully have as much time again on this earth and I am very happy to have been able to vote to Leave.
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
Yes because they cannot impose new rules on us just as we cannot impose new rules on them.
Sounds great to me.
Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each have a veto over our single market access.
They have a veto over our joining EFTA. Of course they do. They do not have a veto over our remaining part of the EEA as long as we join EFTA.
You do seem to be getting more and more desperate as tim,e goes on here Topping and clutching at more and more straws.
Do they have a veto over what EU legislation/regulation gets adopted into the EEA agreement?
That is my point.
All EFTA members have a veto over the expansion of the EEA agreement (hence the Norwegian refusal to allow it to include oil and gas legislation)
They also all have a veto over individual directives but no one has yet used it. Instead they have basically ignored legislation they don't agree with whilst warning that if pushed they will veto it. They have done this with both railways and postal directives. The EU has not pushed back so far for fear of provoking the veto.
Thank you.
So the answer is yes: Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each would have a veto over our access to the single market if we became EEA members.
Oh, but they've never used it. Well d'oh...the UK has never been a part of the EEA before...
Doesn't make your case necessarily any weaker but in this new, post-Project Fear honest debate we're all having about it, you should at least acknowledge that element of the EEA route.
Yeah, exciting week, but let's not make it a drama that it isn't.
The people have spoken, the EU will be left. Following this a trade deal will be reached which the people will either accept or reject.
Your last line is ambiguous to me - are you in the camp the deal needs voting on, or the people will accept or reject it through a GE vote after the fact?
Referendum seems best option, but not to revisit last week
Deal needs to be voted on but it's a binary choice, leave with deal or leave with nothing. It's leave either way, there's no going back on that.
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A post that shows just how scared Leave are that the country has changed its mind.........
Part of me wishes the country would change its mind... but the polling indicates that it hasn't, yet.
We're out, I think, barring some black swan. I am 90% certain it will be into EEA. We just have to ensure France doesn't screw our banks. Which will be hard, but we have cards to play as well - e.g. Eastern Europe and Scandinavia will be much keener to help us than Paris, and all the countries have a say.
I think that's a pragmatic way of looking at it. All I would add is when I said that in April that potential deal flow was down, I was told look at PMIs, everything's fine. I know of a number of deals that were pulled on Friday. It's easy to dismiss these as froth and not the real economy and I'd concede that there's a point there. But these are confidence straws in the wind.
Equally, financial institutions (and I use that in the widest sense of the phrase) are making relocation plans. Perhaps they won't move now but our reputation for stability has been damaged. People can say good riddance, but London's tax receipts are some way above the population. It subsidises the country financially, if not perhaps morally. Choices have consequences.
I've asked on here, which specific regulations hinder competition and flexibility. I get bluster. There are bright people who post here and if they could say, I'd have more confidence about next steps. As it is I don't. To borrow a line from someone wittier than me, we were standing on a cliff top and decided to take a giant pace forward. Let's hope there's a parachute. And that someone's willing to pull the ripcord because base jumping kills....
I think others overestimate my worth, frankly. As I was saying to Southam earlier, why is he so concerned with the opinion of an ex-MP who hasn't been in Parliament for 6 years?
I comment here as a longstanding party member with an interest in what's going on and a mixture of pragmatic background and support for a leftward move. As such I'm probably typical of a certain type of member, but I claim no particular authority and will be perrfectly happy to be seen as just another contributor.
Apologies Nick if I missed an earlier comment of yours from the weeks tens of thousands of other comments but do you wish to see Corbyn resign or remain?
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
isn't it marvellous to have our sovereignty back so that a small group of mainly superannuated OAP's can "take back control" and decide the direction of the country for the next couple of generations. (I'm an OAP so believe me I know how totally out of touch with the modern world most are).
If the young voters can't be arsed to get out and vote they have no right to complain.
I have had to put up with being part of the EU for 43 years because I was too young to vote last time. I hopefully have as much time again on this earth and I am very happy to have been able to vote to Leave.
Despite my views on Brexit I agree - they need to grow up, vote up, or shut up.
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
isn't it marvellous to have our sovereignty back so that a small group of mainly superannuated OAP's can "take back control" and decide the direction of the country for the next couple of generations. (I'm an OAP so believe me I know how totally out of touch with the modern world most are).
superannuated OAPs and Norway and Iceland and Liechtenstein.
Edit: absolutely no offence to OAPs of any stripe..
So the future of the UK for the next couple of generations is in the hands of the Tory membership in Little-Snoring-in-the-Marsh average age 70+. What could possibly go wrong?
Would you prefer it to be in the hands of the Momentum yoof?
I was responding to Alistair's point re the Tory leadership election:-
"The winner is likely to be setting policy that will set the course of the nation for two generations, so this had better be well thought-through."
My point is that I find it supremely ironic given all the recent guff about sovereignty and "taking back control" that the decision will ultimately be taken by, what, 150,000 wealth Tory OAPs.
So the answer is yes: Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each would have a veto over our access to the single market if we are EEA members.
Oh, but they've never used it. Well d'oh...the UK has never been a part of the EEA before...
Doesn't make your case necessarily any weaker but in this new, post-Project Fear honest debate we're all having about it, you should at least acknowledge that element of the EEA route.
Um. No. They would have a veto over us joining EFTA. That is it. Unless you feel we should be able to force our way in?
And we are currently part of the EEA. So long as we join EFTA upon t]leaving the EU that will remain the case.
My preference is for EFTA/EEA. If we don't get it then we will have to sort out a separate FTA. It is rather too late for you to worry about it now as it doesn't change the fact that we have voted to leave the EU and whether or not we become a member of EFTA will not change that basic - rather glorious - fact.
Comments
Moody's downgrades British banks. British bank stocks rise for 2nd day in a row. Does anybody care about ratings agencies these days?
That person is… Corbynite Darren Williams. This means that when the NEC meet to decide the leadership election rules, there will be one more person to vote in favour of Corbyn being put on the ballot automatically. It is, as one source described it, “a game changer” for the fine balance of the committee.
I would likely desert him if AB was the other candidate
If we're going to be 'out and into the world', what matters is our trade performance, our current account, our borrowing costs and the exchange rate. It's back to the 60s.
That's really interesting.
Fingers crossed for Leadsom!
The Nasdaq is up, even in dollar terms..........
Referendum seems best option, but not to revisit last week
Deal needs to be voted on but it's a binary choice, leave with deal or leave with nothing. It's leave either way, there's no going back on that.
.
My perspective, strengthened from having read Owen Jones' latest article on Medium: JC's team, and most of his supporters, aren't dedicated to Jeremy Corbyn leading the Labour party into the next election. Rather, they (and I include myself in this) are determined that there be no return to the spin-driven politics of 2000s New Labour, and complete inability in 2010 and 2015 to offer a meaningful alternative to neoliberal ideology that had demonstrably failed.
Even among many fervent Momentum types, I think there's a recognition that JC has certain inadequacies as a campaigning leader. It is, after all, widely known that he only stood last summer because he was talked into taking his turn as the 'left candidate'.
But JC is the leader. He, and only he, can take that incumbent's place on the ballot paper. If he resigns, all is lost.
Unless, one of JC's loyal allies can be nominated, so that the contest cannot be stitched up to freeze out the anti-austerity, anti-war left. Once that candidate's nomination is irrevocably in place, I see no reason why JC cannot then resign and instruct his supporters to back the continuity candidate. Essentially, bringing forward the plan described by Owen Jones from 2018.
Nothing has changed except the frontman, but the MPs who have resigned in this hare-brained coup can serve under the new leader where serving under a renewed Corbyn leadership would be untenable.
McDonnell is perhaps the obvious choice, but he has a lot of the same broad-appeal-limiting baggage as Corbyn. Clive Lewis ticks a lot of boxes: prior tour of duty in Afghanistan, media savvy, lots of youth appeal, grew up on a council estate. I've seen others flag him up on here, I'm struggling to see a down-side.
But, it would require much of the PLP to put their egos to one side and respect JC's mandate from the members, so it probably won't happen.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/petition-calls-angela-eagle-resign-11539135
5,000 now signed a petition against her.
1. No charisma.
2. Weak voice.
3. Faltering manner in debate.
Now if she were only like Nicola.................................!
You are wrong, no one man is more important than the party and the 9 million voters who depend on it.
Labour's record isn't that great on this issue is it for elected leaders...
Although of course he is less well known and would not retain all Corbynite vote so I would be scared of ending up with a right winger
In any case it's easy to see that the markets and exchange rates took a hit when the result came through but it's impossible to compare where they are post referendum with where they would be if the result had gone the other way.
Leaving that aside, there are currently 31.6 million people in work. There were a whole bunch of reports about the number of EU dependent jobs; anywhere from 3 million to 4.4 million. Not all directly dependent necessarily, and the split is arguable. Let's say that up to 12% of the workforce depend on the EU in one way or another. While there might be spillover effects, at least that puts it into perspective.
The biggest factor is going to be confidence (business and consumer). It just comes down to whether people are prepared to carry on spending or investing. It's too early to say.
1) If you don't usually vote look what happened when you voted in the referendum, you won - vote UKIP
2) If you did vote look at what happened last time - vote UKIP
That alone is going to be enough to win 50% of the seats in the North East....
Speaker for Remain, host for Leave.
You do seem to be getting more and more desperate as tim,e goes on here Topping and clutching at more and more straws.
I do think Nick Palmer (elected, I'd suggest, because of Tony Blair not because of personal virtues) overestimates his own self worth.
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/748230939403239424
That is my point.
We are all being very civilized about the matter; detente has been declared. My dog walking fraternity are just rolling their eyes as Westminster once again fails to get to grips with reality.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/29/labour-mp-emails-utter-disgrace-mcdonnell/
I comment here as a longstanding party member with an interest in what's going on and a mixture of pragmatic background and support for a leftward move. As such I'm probably typical of a certain type of member, but I claim no particular authority and will be perrfectly happy to be seen as just another contributor.
Please please please... Owen Smith £2,763.33
They also all have a veto over individual directives but no one has yet used it. Instead they have basically ignored legislation they don't agree with whilst warning that if pushed they will veto it. They have done this with both railways and postal directives. The EU has not pushed back so far for fear of provoking the veto.
He's doing massive damage to the party now, but I think the myth about his decency and humility is beginning to wear thin.
As i have already said i would vote for either of those two to save the party.
Cant think of anyone else though.
AE is surely scraping the barrel a poor4th of 5 in deputy contest 9 months ago FFS beaten by Flint Creasey and TW
I have had to put up with being part of the EU for 43 years because I was too young to vote last time. I hopefully have as much time again on this earth and I am very happy to have been able to vote to Leave.
So the answer is yes: Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each would have a veto over our access to the single market if we became EEA members.
Oh, but they've never used it. Well d'oh...the UK has never been a part of the EEA before...
Doesn't make your case necessarily any weaker but in this new, post-Project Fear honest debate we're all having about it, you should at least acknowledge that element of the EEA route.
May I just point out that I didn't vote for him the first time?
I particularly liked clause (2). EEA could just be a waystation for us.
I think that's a pragmatic way of looking at it. All I would add is when I said that in April that potential deal flow was down, I was told look at PMIs, everything's fine. I know of a number of deals that were pulled on Friday. It's easy to dismiss these as froth and not the real economy and I'd concede that there's a point there. But these are confidence straws in the wind.
Equally, financial institutions (and I use that in the widest sense of the phrase) are making relocation plans. Perhaps they won't move now but our reputation for stability has been damaged. People can say good riddance, but London's tax receipts are some way above the population. It subsidises the country financially, if not perhaps morally. Choices have consequences.
I've asked on here, which specific regulations hinder competition and flexibility. I get bluster. There are bright people who post here and if they could say, I'd have more confidence about next steps. As it is I don't. To borrow a line from someone wittier than me, we were standing on a cliff top and decided to take a giant pace forward. Let's hope there's a parachute. And that someone's willing to pull the ripcord because base jumping kills....
Edit: absolutely no offence to OAPs of any stripe..
I was responding to Alistair's point re the Tory leadership election:-
"The winner is likely to be setting policy that will set the course of the nation for two generations, so this had better be well thought-through."
My point is that I find it supremely ironic given all the recent guff about sovereignty and "taking back control" that the decision will ultimately be taken by, what, 150,000 wealth Tory OAPs.
So when it all goes tits up they still get the blame, and she can swoop in and sign the deal they should have done all along.
Liking it so far...
And we are currently part of the EEA. So long as we join EFTA upon t]leaving the EU that will remain the case.
My preference is for EFTA/EEA. If we don't get it then we will have to sort out a separate FTA. It is rather too late for you to worry about it now as it doesn't change the fact that we have voted to leave the EU and whether or not we become a member of EFTA will not change that basic - rather glorious - fact.