Ed Conway @EdConwaySky FTSE 250 (better gauge of domestic economy than 100) now back above Feb lows. But in $ terms lowest since mid-2013 10:45 AM - 29 Jun 2016
OK so let us take numbers expressed in Sterling £ for a mainly domestic list of companies and if they do not present the picture we want, we convert them into US$ to make them present the picture we want..... What is next? Expressing UK shares in terms of the Bolivar, if that makes it look bad for Brexit?
Perhaps someone can dressed up as the ghost of Tony Benn and come to Jez tonight and tell him to leave. Where do we find someone who looks and sounds like Tony Benn? Has to be worth a shot.
Emily Benn looks nothing like him. Hilary Benn won't be allowed in his office.
Just a point about this Corbyn "mandate" thing. It appears that he appears to be the only leader in Labour party history who thinks the fact of his "democratic" election excuses him from the normal rules of politics. Perhaps Ed Miliband should point out that he was never rejected by the members and reverse his post-election resignation?
The fact is that insisting that he defend his position "come what may" in a leadership election reduces the chances of Labour finding the best replacement. Because the election would be all about him, and not about the Labour party's future. Also a candidate best placed to beat him might not be the best potential Leader of the Opposition. It also has the problem (although perhaps not so much here given how little support he has) that there is no scope for loyalists to back the leader and then emerge as alternatives once it is clear that the leader has lost the support of the electorate (unlike, for example, the Conservative rules when challenging a leader - see for example John Major in 1990). Personally i'm astonished quite how badly designed the Labour leadership contest rules are!
For those who are genuinely interested in the economy, as opposed to simply wanting to score Internet Points, we won't be able to see the overseas trade statistics post Brexit decision until September. However, we will get the BoP tomorrow. Let's see how healthy we really are.
LOL. You can tell the doom merchants are getting more and more desperate. They were all so delighted when the markets crashed on Friday but now they are recovering they ate thrashing around for some way to carry on their narrative of disaster. Pretty sick really.
The biggest one day fall in the pound was 30% in 1949. That's rather more than what we've seen since Thursday, so please stop saying it's the biggest drop ever.
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
Yay for the new Enlightened Economic Commonwealth.
The EEC.
Ha ha. But seriously, great to see other countries around the world reacting positively and seeing the opportunity where it exists. A well organised government should have a load of trade deals ready to go on the day we officially leave the EU.
In the meantime the new PM should appoint a Secretaty of State for Trade, charter him a plane (made by Airbus, painted in BA colours) and send him around the world with a load of CEOs on board, showing everyone that Britian is open again for business.
How to cope with all these predictions of Doom? That is the question some folk may wonder. What they really need is a BS detector as recommended by the Clash in Garageland.
"Back in the garage with my bullshit detector Carbon monoxide making sure it's deffective People ringing up making offers for my life I just want to stay in the garage all night" http://tinyurl.com/zfcmj6n
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
As this forum clearly shows. The idea that a vote for Leave is a vote for a Red BNP prospectus of zero immigration, unlimited welfare payments and an ultra rich NHS staffed by Harley Street doctors and supermodel nurses is palpable nonsense.
Yes, I'm glad that you recognise that. Just had a conversation with my leaver sister about the EEA, she seems happy with the compromise. She voted because of immigration but recognises that the economic hit would be too large to leave the single market.
I thought that the Labour Party had Harman rules which meant that they had to have both sexes recognised as leader and deputy leader. Does this mean that any challenger to Corbyn has to be a women?
Yes, but Watson had the op and lost his cojones so that was ok.
The biggest one day fall in the pound was 30% in 1949. That's rather more than what we've seen since Thursday, so please stop saying it's the biggest drop ever.
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
Yes because they cannot impose new rules on us just as we cannot impose new rules on them.
As this forum clearly shows. The idea that a vote for Leave is a vote for a Red BNP prospectus of zero immigration, unlimited welfare payments and an ultra rich NHS staffed by Harley Street doctors and supermodel nurses is palpable nonsense.
It's too early to say what the impact of Thursday's vote will be.
This forum is very representative of people who work in the City, and who view City interests as paramount. The mass of the population may think differently.
Yay for the new Enlightened Economic Commonwealth.
The EEC.
Ha ha. But seriously, great to see other countries around the world reacting positively and seeing the opportunity where it exists. A well organised government should have a load of trade deals ready to go on the day we officially leave the EU.
In the meantime the new PM should appoint a Secretaty of State for Trade, charter him a plane (made by Airbus, painted in BA colours) and send him around the world with a load of CEOs on board, showing everyone that Britian is open again for business.
Agree with that. David Davis? Give him a big patriotic role without being in the way...
I thought that the Labour Party had Harman rules which meant that they had to have both sexes recognised as leader and deputy leader.
Does this mean that any challenger to Corbyn has to be a women?
Ooh, that might be a really good point. It was mentioned last time that it was allowed to have two men only because they were elected simultaneously.
Maybe the rules are different for a challenge, as opposed to a vacancy, but it's worth a look at the rule book. Alternatively if a man wins then Watson could resign in favour of an all-wimmin list for Deputy?
Boris will walk it. Who do I bet on for Labour Leader. All in all, going v well this Brexit idea. Osborne gone - check Corbyn gone - check Economic meltdown overblown - check (by the way Mr Meeks, those downgrade thingys really because they affect gilt rates and thus or fantastical national debt. Gilts prices are at all time highs. That was not going to be the case in 2009 so was a lot more worrying then. May come to haunt us in the future, but then again, we ratings can go up as well as down from A-). Junker on his way - Check
Only genuinely very sad bit is the outbreak of racism which I really hope calms down in due course.
Yay for the new Enlightened Economic Commonwealth.
The EEC.
Ha ha. But seriously, great to see other countries around the world reacting positively and seeing the opportunity where it exists. A well organised government should have a load of trade deals ready to go on the day we officially leave the EU.
In the meantime the new PM should appoint a Secretaty of State for Trade, charter him a plane (made by Airbus, painted in BA colours) and send him around the world with a load of CEOs on board, showing everyone that Britian is open again for business.
Agree with that. David Davis? Give him a big patriotic role without being in the way...
Davis would be good, yes.
Ironically, so would Boris - his persona works well abroad as it did in London. Not sure what his missus would think of the idea of him being away for a week or two at a time though!
Please Can anyone putting in a link check the length. Long links really screw up iPads and phones and make reading impossible. Any links can be shortened here
As this forum clearly shows. The idea that a vote for Leave is a vote for a Red BNP prospectus of zero immigration, unlimited welfare payments and an ultra rich NHS staffed by Harley Street doctors and supermodel nurses is palpable nonsense.
Yes, I'm glad that you recognise that. Just had a conversation with my leaver sister about the EEA, she seems happy with the compromise. She voted because of immigration but recognises that the economic hit would be too large to leave the single market.
I'm disgusted by ethnic minorities voting Leave purley on immigration - shows a complete lack of awareness and the focus of the Leave campaign - turkeys votng for Xmas comes to mind.
My parents voted Leave which they now regret. They voted early by post, if they had voted on 23rd June they would have voted Remain.
Racist attacks are on the increase as the bigots are now emboldened by the Leave vote. Speaking to my cousin who lives in Huddersfield today and he has witnessed a significant increase in racist language. Even where I live in the London bubble, I am a little nervous understandably.
As this forum clearly shows. The idea that a vote for Leave is a vote for a Red BNP prospectus of zero immigration, unlimited welfare payments and an ultra rich NHS staffed by Harley Street doctors and supermodel nurses is palpable nonsense.
Yes, I'm glad that you recognise that. Just had a conversation with my leaver sister about the EEA, she seems happy with the compromise. She voted because of immigration but recognises that the economic hit would be too large to leave the single market.
I'm disgusted by ethnic minorities voting Leave purley on immigration - shows a complete lack of awareness and the focus of the Leave campaign - turkeys votng for Xmas comes to mind.
My parents voted Leave which they now regret. They voted early by post, if they had voted on 23rd June they would have voted Remain.
Racist attacks are on the increase as the bigots are now emboldened by the Leave vote. Speaking to my cousin who lives in Huddersfield today and he has witnessed a significant increase in racist language. Even where I live in the London bubble, I am a little nervous understandably.
Reports of racist attacks are on the increase - there is a difference.
LOL. You can tell the doom merchants are getting more and more desperate. They were all so delighted when the markets crashed on Friday but now they are recovering they ate thrashing around for some way to carry on their narrative of disaster. Pretty sick really.
Profit taking. The downward pressure will come in waves as the bad news hits. The pound has a long way to fall yet. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before the BofE looks at radical solutions like helicopter money.
" Special relationship will stay strong despite EU votes result.
Hillary Clinton has insisted that Americas special relationship with Britain will remain despite vote to leave EU. The presidential hopeful reconfirmed "The common interests and values " of the two nations is a corner stone of American foreign policy.
On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.
But how can this be? We're surely headed for ruin. SeanT said so..::
It's too early to say one way or another. My antidote to the dire reporting in the UK is to read the foreign press. They're far less partisan.
Interestingly, some are already moving on to worry about NLexit, which would be far more of a test for the EZ. Can't see that happening myself.
EU says kettles must have boiling temperature of 99-100C. We manufacture kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 98.9C. Norway manufactures kettles with maximum boiling temperature of 99.1C.
EEA agreement or no EEA agreement?
No agreement.
So it is indeed us vs Norway (and ofc Liechtenstein and Iceland).
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
Yes because they cannot impose new rules on us just as we cannot impose new rules on them.
Sounds great to me.
Norway and Liechtenstein and Iceland each have a veto over our single market access.
I don't see why there would be a general election this year.
The referendum gave the government a policy goal. Mr Cameron had to be replaced, but once the new PM is in place the government has a task to accomplish. A general election would just be an unnecessary distraction.
Have you noticed the size of the current majority? How many bills have faced difficulties so far? Do you really think any legislation produced by a stridently brexit led party will be just waved through?
As this forum clearly shows. The idea that a vote for Leave is a vote for a Red BNP prospectus of zero immigration, unlimited welfare payments and an ultra rich NHS staffed by Harley Street doctors and supermodel nurses is palpable nonsense.
Yes, I'm glad that you recognise that. Just had a conversation with my leaver sister about the EEA, she seems happy with the compromise. She voted because of immigration but recognises that the economic hit would be too large to leave the single market.
I'm disgusted by ethnic minorities voting Leave purley on immigration - shows a complete lack of awareness and the focus of the Leave campaign - turkeys votng for Xmas comes to mind.
My parents voted Leave which they now regret. They voted early by post, if they had voted on 23rd June they would have voted Remain.
Racist attacks are on the increase as the bigots are now emboldened by the Leave vote. Speaking to my cousin who lives in Huddersfield today and he has witnessed a significant increase in racist language. Even where I live in the London bubble, I am a little nervous understandably.
Reports of racist attacks are on the increase - there is a difference.
"The National Police Chiefs’ Council told the Guardian that 85 incidents had been reported, compared to 54 during the earlier period. “It’s no coincidence this has come off the back of the EU vote,” a police source claimed.
However, all of the perceived crimes were reported on the “Stop Hate Crime” website, rather than in a station or to an officer.
It takes just minutes to report a “hate crime” online, all from the comfort of one’s armchair. It raises questions therefore over the massive social media push and how responsible online activists are for the “surge”. It is entirely possible that a percentage of reports are politically motivated."
On a Euro denominated basis, judged by stock markets which now seems to be every doom merchants favourite measure, Britain has had one of the better weeks of any European country.
But how can this be? We're surely headed for ruin. SeanT said so..::
It's too early to say one way or another. My antidote to the dire reporting in the UK is to read the foreign press. They're far less partisan.
Interestingly, some are already moving on to worry about NLexit, which would be far more of a test for the EZ. Can't see that happening myself.
" Special relationship will stay strong despite EU votes result.
Hillary Clinton has insisted that Americas special relationship with Britain will remain despite vote to leave EU. The presidential hopeful reconfirmed "The common interests and values " of the two nations is a corner stone of American foreign policy.
Oh wait ! ....back of the queue ?
To be fair, they didn't say which queue. I'm sure there is some queue we would happy to be at the end of.
There's a major hit on UK-focused sectors. Companies whose revenues are largely in US dollars have benefited. That's not exactly a vote of confidence in the effect of Brexit on the UK economy.
Wasting your time - the brexiters are still not listening.
LOL. You can tell the doom merchants are getting more and more desperate. They were all so delighted when the markets crashed on Friday but now they are recovering they ate thrashing around for some way to carry on their narrative of disaster. Pretty sick really.
What an idiot, doesn't he realise what the real issues were? He should read PB.
I'm sure it was THE issue for many Leavers. They're just not very well represented on PB, which is strictly for political anoraks.
I have been assured by PB that Leavers the nation over a gagging for a settlement that involves free movement of people as Immigration is not an issue.
Just been to a school meeting in leafyish north London, about my daughter and her cohort going up to Year 7 etc etc
Lots of very north Londony parents there - architects, journalists, teachers, academics - sort of meeting where a parent uses the word "algorithm" and everyone understands and nods.
i.e. probably 80% Guardian readers and graduates.
So I expected them to be in tears and despair, yet not. They seemed sanguine. When I asked a couple of them about the vote they smiled, a little ruefully, like it was no worse than England losing the footie, then they chatted happily about something else.
Hmm. Is this stoical middle England showing its mettle, and I am an hysterical twit, or are they just completely uninformed, and my idiotic hysteria is still justified?
Intriguing.
If you're not a stock market pundit or a currency speculator, nothing has, as yet, happened. Just an metric buttload of 'this might happen and 'that might happen'.
My anecdote for the day: my Mum has completed her political journey from being tribal Labour to thinking Daniel Hannan is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Truly, we are living in the Age of Miracles.
I don't see why there would be a general election this year.
The referendum gave the government a policy goal. Mr Cameron had to be replaced, but once the new PM is in place the government has a task to accomplish. A general election would just be an unnecessary distraction.
Have you noticed the size of the current majority? How many bills have faced difficulties so far? Do you really think any legislation produced by a stridently brexit led party will be just waved through?
I don't much care about anything but the Brexit negotiations. That can certainly be begun without a parliament vote, and the clock runs down from then.
What an idiot, doesn't he realise what the real issues were? He should read PB.
I'm sure it was THE issue for many Leavers. They're just not very well represented on PB, which is strictly for political anoraks.
I have been assured by PB that Leavers the nation over a gagging for a settlement that involves free movement of people as Immigration is not an issue.
I refer the honourable gentleman to my previous statement. We can recurse like this all day.
Just back from attending the Norfolk Show, highlight of our social calendar here in the countryside. I asked 89 people amongst the 'Great and the Good" the 'forced choice" of who would they support Boris or Theresa. Astonishingly 87 expressed a preference for Theresa. When I told the second Boris-supporter who the first one was, what changed her mind. There was a 50/50 mix of inners and outers.
Yesterday in my Council Group, with a majority of Brexiters, only one opted for Boris.
On this show , Boris cannot even start thinking of taking the provinces for granted and has a real mountain to climb to make progress in the sticks.
Just been to a school meeting in leafyish north London, about my daughter and her cohort going up to Year 7 etc etc
Lots of very north Londony parents there - architects, journalists, teachers, academics - sort of meeting where a parent uses the word "algorithm" and everyone understands and nods.
i.e. probably 80% Guardian readers and graduates.
So I expected them to be in tears and despair, yet not. They seemed sanguine. When I asked a couple of them about the vote they smiled, a little ruefully, like it was no worse than England losing the footie, then they chatted happily about something else.
Hmm. Is this stoical middle England showing its mettle, and I am an hysterical twit, or are they just completely uninformed, and my idiotic hysteria is still justified?
Intriguing.
Now that we are where we are, full fat EEA (ie plus free movement) is a bit like the Labour Party getting in at a GE. We'll all be poorer, the economy will tank, unions will grow more powerful etc, but not the end of the world.
(I'm sure Labour voters think the same in reciprocal terms about a Cons govt.)
LOL. You can tell the doom merchants are getting more and more desperate. They were all so delighted when the markets crashed on Friday but now they are recovering they ate thrashing around for some way to carry on their narrative of disaster. Pretty sick really.
But don't for a second think that they actively want the country to fail. If you think the ramping of disaster was over done, wait till you see the angry denials.
Comments
(She's blown it by not doing so a day or so ago)
I've edited my original post. Too eager to report my "scoop".
FTSE 250 (better gauge of domestic economy than 100) now back above Feb lows. But in $ terms lowest since mid-2013 10:45 AM - 29 Jun 2016
OK so let us take numbers expressed in Sterling £ for a mainly domestic list of companies and if they do not present the picture we want, we convert them into US$ to make them present the picture we want..... What is next? Expressing UK shares in terms of the Bolivar, if that makes it look bad for Brexit?
I see the Mirror is trying to paint him as the David Brent of politics. Are they frit?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/4-most-cringe-moments-stephen-8311655
Clinton 42% Trump 40%
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06292016_Utwkv93x.pdf
Charlie Falconer?
The fact is that insisting that he defend his position "come what may" in a leadership election reduces the chances of Labour finding the best replacement. Because the election would be all about him, and not about the Labour party's future. Also a candidate best placed to beat him might not be the best potential Leader of the Opposition. It also has the problem (although perhaps not so much here given how little support he has) that there is no scope for loyalists to back the leader and then emerge as alternatives once it is clear that the leader has lost the support of the electorate (unlike, for example, the Conservative rules when challenging a leader - see for example John Major in 1990). Personally i'm astonished quite how badly designed the Labour leadership contest rules are!
Locusts are kicking up a hell of a fuss apparently because they have been placed at the back of the queue
Does this mean that any challenger to Corbyn has to be a women?
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/justine-greening-and-mike-penning-back-theresa-mays-bid-for-tory-leadership-a3283721.html
This is an improvement?
(I suppose Iceland might give us the sympathy vote for the next four years.)
In the meantime the new PM should appoint a Secretaty of State for Trade, charter him a plane (made by Airbus, painted in BA colours) and send him around the world with a load of CEOs on board, showing everyone that Britian is open again for business.
"Back in the garage with my bullshit detector
Carbon monoxide making sure it's deffective
People ringing up making offers for my life
I just want to stay in the garage all night"
http://tinyurl.com/zfcmj6n
It is now day 6 since the fateful vote and already the market has recovered and the £ is recovering some of it's former bloom.
The Labour party may change, it may even split but wont disintegrate.
A New leader and PM will be chosen by the Tories in the next few weeks.
UKIP may at last win a few seats if there is an early election.
And we will carry on. The real change and danger comes from the EU itself: beware the ides of March.
That would help my book enormously
Ok ...Well maybe end of days Monday
Sounds great to me.
This forum is very representative of people who work in the City, and who view City interests as paramount. The mass of the population may think differently.
Maybe the rules are different for a challenge, as opposed to a vacancy, but it's worth a look at the rule book. Alternatively if a man wins then Watson could resign in favour of an all-wimmin list for Deputy?
Unless they are hubby of the Deputy leader and have a verified working parachute. ( allegedly)
I was talking to a Norwegian and a Dutch national living in Norway this morning (Does that count as a focus group?). Anyway, key points they made:
- Norway thought they had a referendum on in the EU or stay out of the EU - it was actually a referendum on EU or EEA (Did we???)
- EEA is the worst of both worlds; they are on the receiving end of 90% of the crap from the EU and have to pay, but have no influence.
- They did concede that Norway has the ability to negotiate its own trade deals with the rest of the world (I'm not sure how many they have got)
- They felt we should decide what we want to do ASAP - delaying has no upside (Not sure I agree there)
- Dutch guy didn't anticipate a Nexit referendum.
Osborne gone - check
Corbyn gone - check
Economic meltdown overblown - check (by the way Mr Meeks, those downgrade thingys really because they affect gilt rates and thus or fantastical national debt. Gilts prices are at all time highs. That was not going to be the case in 2009 so was a lot more worrying then. May come to haunt us in the future, but then again, we ratings can go up as well as down from A-).
Junker on his way - Check
Only genuinely very sad bit is the outbreak of racism which I really hope calms down in due course.
TW would maybe have a 25% chance
Labour member of the House of Lords this evening described the current situation as a 'crisis'.
- No, not in the Labour Party; in the country over Brexit.
Unfortunately no juicier off the cuff remarks. Free wine and nibbles, however.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 42
http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2016/6/29/florida_decides_polls_presidential_race.html#results
New Hampshire - ARG
Clinton 47 .. Trump 42
http://tinyurl.com/zc8snbf
http://www.cityam.com/240684/the-norway-option-is-far-from-just-paying-into-the-eu-without-having-a-say
Clinton 40 .. Trump 35
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/29/yougoveconomist-poll-june-24-27-2016/
Ironically, so would Boris - his persona works well abroad as it did in London. Not sure what his missus would think of the idea of him being away for a week or two at a time though!
Basically, how much of Corbyn's vote is personal rather than ideological?
Can anyone putting in a link check the length. Long links really screw up iPads and phones and make reading impossible.
Any links can be shortened here
http://tinyurl.com/
My parents voted Leave which they now regret. They voted early by post, if they had voted on 23rd June they would have voted Remain.
Racist attacks are on the increase as the bigots are now emboldened by the Leave vote. Speaking to my cousin who lives in Huddersfield today and he has witnessed a significant increase in racist language. Even where I live in the London bubble, I am a little nervous understandably.
It will be interesting to see how long it takes before the BofE looks at radical solutions like helicopter money.
It was all a giant bluff!
What f***ing eejits...
Let the deselections begin.
Maybe by Friday, they would accept McDonnell.
" Special relationship will stay strong despite EU votes result.
Hillary Clinton has insisted that Americas special relationship with Britain will remain despite vote to leave EU. The presidential hopeful reconfirmed
"The common interests and values " of the two nations is a corner stone of American foreign policy.
Oh wait ! ....back of the queue ?
I understand JM will not stand even if given nod by JC
These people are completely hopeless
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/leave-donor-plans-new-party-to-replace-ukip-without-farage?CMP=share_btn_tw
What an idiot, doesn't he realise what the real issues were? He should read PB.
http://www.dw.com/en/
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931
Interesting post by @SandyRentool
Well Joe Root's out so that makes it go from 1 down to 4 down in one ball.
However, all of the perceived crimes were reported on the “Stop Hate Crime” website, rather than in a station or to an officer.
It takes just minutes to report a “hate crime” online, all from the comfort of one’s armchair. It raises questions therefore over the massive social media push and how responsible online activists are for the “surge”. It is entirely possible that a percentage of reports are politically motivated."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/29/exposed-pro-eu-activists-media-generated-hate-crime-epidemic-brexit/
In contrast, Luciana put her party before her personal aspirations.
To be fair, they didn't say which queue. I'm sure there is some queue we would happy to be at the end of.
Are you sat down
I would vote for him this time to save the party
My anecdote for the day: my Mum has completed her political journey from being tribal Labour to thinking Daniel Hannan is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Truly, we are living in the Age of Miracles.
Yesterday in my Council Group, with a majority of Brexiters, only one opted for Boris.
On this show , Boris cannot even start thinking of taking the provinces for granted and has a real mountain to climb to make progress in the sticks.
Bunnco Your Man on the Spot
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(I'm sure Labour voters think the same in reciprocal terms about a Cons govt.)
I have reached Anyone Decent territory, regardless of left-right position - but I don't rate Eagle as Decent.