Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of bre

1234568»

Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    edited June 2016
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:



    You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?

    If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
    Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?

    :wink:

    Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
    *Could* not *would*

    Big difference.

    We're in control.
    So the EU formulates a law with only our initial input, but one that we care about enough to want to adopt. We have no say in the latter or, crucially, voting rounds.

    And then it comes out, and we want to adopt it, but Norway vetoes its inclusion into the EEA Agreement. So we cut and paste (your words) the law formulated in a different country with minimal UK input onto our statute books.

    Doesn't sound too control-y to me.
    You are daft sometimes.

    If we don't like the EU version but we want something similar then we draft our own version and pass it as a national regulation.

    Capiche?
    Charles, this is to participate in the single market. The market with standardised regulations. That kettle spouts must be at least 20mm wide. And you are saying that if we don't like that bit we can amend our law to say that kettle spouts must be a minimum of 18mm wide and then we can sell kettles into the single market?

    Yes I am daft sometimes but I seem to be being matched stride for stride on here by many others at other times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    *This is fucking awful week to write threads more than 30 mins an advance or to auto schedule threads*

    If you want sedate politics move to, erm, Germany? Japan?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    kle4 said:

    It's over for May then - she's the favourite now I guess, and we know what that means.

    She's not – Boris is still the marginal favourite (2.25 vs 2.75)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    Looks like Boris needs to lend his MPs to candidates who aren't Mrs May

    Does Boris have that many?
    Boris seems to think so. 100 already for the first round.

    With the quasi-AV system, he'll probably get 140ish they say by the final round.

    You only need 111 to make the final round, so he could loan maybe 20 to another candidate to stop Mrs May making the ballot
    Boris has a lot of potential to do a David Davis and go backwards from the first round.
    I said to Mike that Boris will do a Portillo. Win the first round then not put on many other voters in the next rounds
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:



    You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?

    If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
    Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?

    :wink:

    Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
    *Could* not *would*

    Big difference.

    We're in control.
    So the EU formulates a law with only our initial input, but one that we care about enough to want to adopt. We have no say in the latter or, crucially, voting rounds.

    And then it comes out, and we want to adopt it, but Norway vetoes its inclusion into the EEA Agreement. So we cut and paste (your words) the law formulated in a different country with minimal UK input onto our statute books.

    Doesn't sound too control-y to me.
    You are daft sometimes.

    If we don't like the EU version but we want something similar then we draft our own version and pass it as a national regulation.

    Capiche?
    No, Charles I don't think that would be acceptable, it would have to be government by fax if there was an EFTA veto. The regulations have to be identical in nature to the EU ones in order to be recognised, they can't be a more favourable approximation.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    The thing is Theresa still has to make the Final 2 - and that might not be easy - especially if Boris has spare votes.

    However, presumably she should get a lot of the establishment vote - some of whom may not declare - eg the likes of Cameron, Osborne etc.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,286
    I'm off to bed but I'd like to reserve 'FIrst, like Theresa' on the new thread.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016

    Fishing said:

    Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.

    I don't agree.

    Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
    As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company I have watched the continual downsizing of UK industry over many years. I set up my company with the election of Blair as I figured Labour would support industry. This was a massive mistake which cost my marriage and almost everything I owned. I survived just and now I am thriving internationally.

    The Tories don't really understand industry but do less damage than Labour is my general opinion. The last 5 years have been pretty good and my turnover is growing at 10% plus per year.

    The UK is poorly set to operate as a standalone country. For example we have one active implantable company which is tiny and maybe only one manufacturer of cardiac catheters. Our economy is highly skewed to a few businesses that rely on international trade. Tearing up our biggest existing trade agreement without new ones in place seems to me suicide.

    It will take years to rebuild our industry and will require us to attract talent from across the world. My recent hires include graduates from Greece, Bulgaria and Estonia. Personally I prefer to hire Europeans than from the rest of the world. While wages are low here we suffer from expensive energy, expensive money and property taxes that are probably the highest in Europe. The result is a lack of incentives to buy machinery which uses energy, space and require loans. I cannot see leaving the EU helping this transition as we lose access to good talent that we need.

    |The country has had too many conviction politicians and too little attention to detail. I recently joined the Scottish Tories because of Ruth and I will vote for Theresa along with most of the other Tories I know up here.

    The Eu is part of the reason we have expensive energy. (Renewable energy directive.)

    https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy

    --------

    "Tearing up our biggest existing trade agreement without new ones in place seems to me suicide."

    There is a two year negotiating period before the agreement ends. And there appears to be a queue forming of non-EU nations keen on trading with the UK.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Fishing said:

    Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.

    I don't agree.

    Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
    As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company

    We should talk some day :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    MikeL said:

    The thing is Theresa still has to make the Final 2 - and that might not be easy - especially if Boris has spare votes.

    However, presumably she should get a lot of the establishment vote - some of whom may not declare - eg the likes of Cameron, Osborne etc.

    Who says Boris has spare votes though?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    What do we need to do to shift Corbyn ? Use Balefire ? Antimatter weapons?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
    Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.

    This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.

    UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Now Richard Nabavi resorting to stock picking to try support his narrative about Brexit being disastrous. Oh dear.

    One of the most stupid comments ever made on PB, and that's in a crowded field.

    Before the referendum, I did say that some stocks (those whose revenues were predominantly from the US and elsewhere) would benefit in the short-term from Brexit, and others (those focused on the UK domestic economy) wouldn't. Of course I take no special credit for this statement of the bleedin' obvious, but it seems that the bleedin' obvious isn't obvious enough for some to understand.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,111
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    On Crabb...there was an interview with him on the radio when he was talking about his christian values.

    Why are Christian, bible, thumper, loony roonies so obsessed particularly by sex, gays and porn and drugs. He managed to bring up all three in the interview.

    You cannot have a Christian nut job, whose obsessed by sex and gay men, porn, drugs getting anywhere near power. You just cannot.

    He won't get anywhere near winning. What he's doing is raising his profile. Always happens in these elections
    How does that theory work with Liam Fox? Last time I confronted anything like Dr Fox, I was scraping it off my shoe which happens all too often in Italy. Anti social Italians and their dogs......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2016
    55% for May v 37% for Boris amongst Tory members is a crushing May victory, there is a danger for Boris now he may not even make the final round let alone win it, Leadsom or Fox could replace him as the Leave candidate
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    New thread was there. Then it wasn't!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:



    You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?

    If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
    Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?

    :wink:

    Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
    *Could* not *would*

    Big difference.

    We're in control.
    I really don't think EEA is going to happen for Britain. No-one will be able to tell us what to do without asking first. But that's the EEA's way of working.

    So when Merkel says no cherry-picking on the single market and no negotiation prior to the Article 50 countdown, she is either holding out for Article 50 NEVER to be triggered and Britain's EU membership to continue by default, or it's a locked down trade deal.

    No, my understanding is that the Germans want us to accept a deal that maintains all four freedoms or not have a deal. The EEA is a ready made solution that can work for us in the short to medium term, possibly even the long term. I think even the Frogs are on board given their stance on Calais and Sturgeon. No one wants to piss the other side off, which is why I wish someone would lock Nigel Farage up in a basement for a few months.
    The problem is that the EEA entails the UK taking whatever has been decided in Brussels and implementing it in law. No discussions. Charles on this forum (quite reasonably) doubted that. EEA is a typical Euro Fudge, or a "pretend and extend" measure. Everyone can sign up to it in the UK and on the Continent in principle. But as it gets close to becoming reality, Merkel or a successor with a similar outlook would see that "no cherry picking" rule could never be enforced by the EEA. Indeed it's an invitation to cherry pick. As they are clever people, they almost certainly know this already
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    What do we need to do to shift Corbyn ? Use Balefire ? Antimatter weapons?

    Turn Diane Abbott into a Mata Hari
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 654
    Charles said:

    Fishing said:

    Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.

    I don't agree.

    Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
    As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company

    We should talk some day :)
    Would be delighted. You can reach me at Andersen Caledonia / Jonathan
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Fishing said:

    Though it was the Thatcher years that accelerated the already existing trend of deindustrialisation.

    I don't agree.

    Between 1973 and 1979, manufacturing as a percentage of UK GDP declined by 2.7 percentage points, or about 0.4%/year. Between 1979 and 1990, it declined by 5.4 percentage points, or about the same rate (assuming mineral oil processing held steady between those years). Very slightly faster, but you'd need a microscope to see the difference in the stats. See https://catalogue.pearsoned.co.uk/assets/hip/gb/hip_gb_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0273736906.pdf table 1.2.
    As owner and MD of a successful medical technology company I have watched the continual downsizing of UK industry over many years. I set up my company with the election of Blair as I figured Labour would support industry. This was a massive mistake which cost my marriage and almost everything I owned. I survived just and now I am thriving internationally.

    The Tories don't really understand industry but do less damage than Labour is my general opinion. The last 5 years have been pretty good and my turnover is growing at 10% plus per year.

    The UK is poorly set to operate as a standalone country. For example we have one active implantable company which is tiny and maybe only one manufacturer of cardiac catheters. Our economy is highly skewed to a few businesses that rely on international trade. Tearing up our biggest existing trade agreement without new ones in place seems to me suicide.

    It will take years to rebuild our industry and will require us to attract talent from across the world. My recent hires include graduates from Greece, Bulgaria and Estonia. Personally I prefer to hire Europeans than from the rest of the world. While wages are low here we suffer from expensive energy, expensive money and property taxes that are probably the highest in Europe. The result is a lack of incentives to buy machinery which uses energy, space and require loans. I cannot see leaving the EU helping this transition as we lose access to good talent that we need.

    |The country has had too many conviction politicians and too little attention to detail. I recently joined the Scottish Tories because of Ruth and I will vote for Theresa along with most of the other Tories I know up here.

    Top post. Nice to see you posting again.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
    If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!

    The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
    We can if we voted!
    Yes. It's one of those things where I just don't know how to fix the problem, as I don't understand it. I get not caring about politics, or politicians, of widespread apathy, but even that as an excuse only extends so far. I know 60 year olds who've never voted, voted in the referendum, but insist they won't ever vote again as they won't vote for a politicians, why can't the young be like that at least? More of them at any rate - honestly, I'm not even 30 and
    the young demographic are turning me into an old grouch.

    Or that might be spending time on PB surrounded by octogenarians :)
    At this point i'd say compulsory voting is the only option if you wanted to increase youth voting (or voting levels generally). Seems to work OK in Australia, I don't see why it couldn't apply here. I think voting should be viewed as a duty, like jury duty, so you need to have an opt-out reason not to vote (you can always spoil your ballot if you want to protest) or you pay a fine.

    Other than that, if the youth didn't vote in this, nothing (including corbyn) will bring them out en masse.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:



    You say we can't impose [EU] legislation on EFTA states and vice versa and that is good. But is the corollary of that that if it is vetoed from being incorporated into the EEA Agreement by another EEA/EFTA state, we can unilaterally adopt it. What would be the mechanism by which we could do that?

    If nothing else worked, presumably Parliament could copy paste the regulation into a law and pass that.
    Presumably Brussels could fax over the legislation and we would simply adopt that?

    :wink:

    Max made it sound as though there was something more formal than that.
    *Could* not *would*

    Big difference.

    We're in control.
    So the EU formulates a law with only our initial input, but one that we care about enough to want to adopt. We have no say in the latter or, crucially, voting rounds.

    And then it comes out, and we want to adopt it, but Norway vetoes its inclusion into the EEA Agreement. So we cut and paste (your words) the law formulated in a different country with minimal UK input onto our statute books.

    Doesn't sound too control-y to me.
    You are daft sometimes.

    If we don't like the EU version but we want something similar then we draft our own version and pass it as a national regulation.

    Capiche?
    Charles, this is to participate in the single market. The market with standardised regulations. That kettle spouts must be at least 20mm wide. And you are saying that if we don't like that bit we can amend our law to say that kettle spouts must be a minimum of 18mm wide and then we can sell kettles into the single market?

    Yes I am daft sometimes but I seem to be being matched stride for stride on here by many others at other times.
    If EU spouts must be at least 20mm wide and UK ones must be at least 18mm wide, then any UK manufacturer wanting to sell into the Single Market can choose to manufacture to European standards (as EU kettles would be compliant with UK regulations).

    Any kettle manufacturer who doesn't want to sell to the EU can make 18mm wide spouts.

    It's more difficult when UK regulations are stricter than EU regulations, but then our politicians should make a decision and face the consequences
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Looks like Boris needs to lend his MPs to candidates who aren't Mrs May

    Does Boris have that many?
    Boris seems to think so. 100 already for the first round.

    With the quasi-AV system, he'll probably get 140ish they say by the final round.

    You only need 111 to make the final round, so he could loan maybe 20 to another candidate to stop Mrs May making the ballot
    Boris has a lot of potential to do a David Davis and go backwards from the first round.
    I said to Mike that Boris will do a Portillo. Win the first round then not put on many other voters in the next rounds
    But will probably be vice-versa.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,111
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
    I am hoping....for me....getting the best deal for Britain, and keeping us part of Europe is just so much more important than party politics. We have to mitigate the monumental clusterfuck that happened last week.
  • Wonder if IDS will return to DWP under May?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160

    Wonder if IDS will return to DWP under May?

    Shoot me now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    edited June 2016
    @Charles - what about red labels in EU vs Blue labels in UK?

    But....it will have to wait until the morrow.

    Nite all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
    Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.

    This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.

    UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
    May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Evan Davis destroying Boris' campaign manager here.

    Boris is toast. All his BREXIT promises coming home to haunt.

    He won't win.

    His career might be over if he doesn't win it, do you think? Or hyperbole?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    nunu said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    Some good turnouts in Berkshire.

    Wokingham 80%, W.Berkshire 80%, Bracknell 76%, Reading 72%

    http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/eu-referendum-result-reading-wokingham-11518563

    -----------

    Mr Elliot of the Vote Leave team said they had 30,000 activists, and they wanted to be involved. Not what I saw in my patch, but who knows.

    https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/how-leave-beat-back-a-u-s-consultant-led-effort-to-remain-in-the-eu
    We wanted to be involved but obviously had no data so hard to target our voters.
    We got some addresses to target in the last week. These looked more like market research targeting than registered/canvassed supporters.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    SeanT said:

    Evan Davis destroying Boris' campaign manager here.

    Boris is toast. All his BREXIT promises coming home to haunt.

    He won't win.

    Evan Davis was awful in that interview. Blunt was not much better, but Davis seemed far too invested emotionally...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    SeanT said:

    Evan Davis destroying Boris' campaign manager here.

    Boris is toast. All his BREXIT promises coming home to haunt.

    He won't win.

    Boris claimed there was more chance of him being reincarnated as an olive than becoming PM I believe. Not sure about toast.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Evan Davis destroying Boris' campaign manager here.

    Boris is toast. All his BREXIT promises coming home to haunt.

    He won't win.

    His career might be over if he doesn't win it, do you think? Or hyperbole?
    He'll still get a big ministry, maybe even chancellor, at least until he fucks it up.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Was Evan Davis going to allow Crispin Brunt to get a word in edgeways? Farcical interview.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    O/T but it's unbelievable that daily politics has been shortened this and next week due to Wimbledon. WTF are the BBC thinking??t
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    "This year's top prize at Wimbledon will be £2m or a punnet of strawberries, whichever is worth more in two week's time."

    twitter.com/welchcomms/status/747842426035912705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Evan Davis destroying Boris' campaign manager here.

    Boris is toast. All his BREXIT promises coming home to haunt.

    He won't win.

    His career might be over if he doesn't win it, do you think? Or hyperbole?
    He'll still get a big ministry, maybe even chancellor, at least until he fucks it up.
    Chancellor would be good one. He'd have to clear up his own DIY recession!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    If I'd heard May's speech before the referendum, I might very well have changed my mind. It was extremely cogent. I guess Remain thought it was more effective to keep calling me a racist Little Englander.

    She made a very interesting point that I've not seen made elsewhere. With Brexit, the free trade faction of the EU won't have the 35% blocking threshold that it has with us as a member.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Great insight from the bunker from Nick Watt.

    Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.

    The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Does Boris actually have 100MPs? Guido's website only lists 37.

    Boris' camp say they have over 100 I believe.
    If he has 37 declared already, he probably does.
    111+ takes you straight thought to the final round according to Guido.

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/29/toryleadership-campaign-update/

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Newsnight: "Corbyn is a broken man."

    And Labour is over.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
    Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.

    This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.

    UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
    May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
    As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.

    UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.

    If Labour continue to exist that is.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    18-24 was 36.4%.
    I find that figure one of the most depressing aspects of the referendum vote.
    It was the biggest surprise of the night for me. I figured the youngsters would be incredibly fired up. As you say, depressing and disappointing. Something else to fix :/
    If they weren't fired up for this, what would fire them up?!

    The young can have no complaints about the outcome.
    We can if we voted! But yes I see what you mean, the meme that the young get screwed over by the old is bollocks, the young are every bit as able to vote as the old, they just don't care (or rather, a small minority care very deeply, visibly, and loudly, hiding the uncaring majority).
    Please stick around, we don't have many youngsters on the site. While I'm not precisely sure of the demographic split, it feels pretty middle aged/old.
    Jack W distorts the average age of course
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Does Boris actually have 100MPs? Guido's website only lists 37.

    Boris' camp say they have over 100 I believe.
    If he has 37 declared already, he probably does.
    111+ takes you straight thought to the final round according to Guido.

    Provided you don't lose them in subsequent rounds, I suppose?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    How seriously will the MPs take the YouGov poll, are they going to ditch Boris ?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016

    nunu said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    Some good turnouts in Berkshire.

    Wokingham 80%, W.Berkshire 80%, Bracknell 76%, Reading 72%

    http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/eu-referendum-result-reading-wokingham-11518563

    -----------

    Mr Elliot of the Vote Leave team said they had 30,000 activists, and they wanted to be involved. Not what I saw in my patch, but who knows.

    https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/how-leave-beat-back-a-u-s-consultant-led-effort-to-remain-in-the-eu
    We wanted to be involved but obviously had no data so hard to target our voters.
    We got some addresses to target in the last week. These looked more like market research targeting than registered/canvassed supporters.
    If we had ukip data we might have had an even better vote share, but then again Nigel Garage is toxic for most voters so swings and roundabouts really
    Also its questionable how good ukips data is as they always fail on the ground game anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
    Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.

    This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.

    UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
    May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
    As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.

    UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.

    If Labour continue to exist that is.
    UKIP are clearly a threat to Labour but it would be complacent to deny they are a threat to the Tories too in some parts of the country, especially seaside towns
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
    Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.

    This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.

    UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
    May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
    As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.

    UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.

    If Labour continue to exist that is.
    UKIP are clearly a threat to Labour but it would be complacent to deny they are a threat to the Tories too in some parts of the country, especially seaside towns
    I saw a map of the top 30 places with voters who are 65+ and they are all on the coast. Why is that is that where people go to retire?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    Following Panorama

    We need to execute the odd General or two for treason in my view. If we explain to them that really they should have been shot anyway in any reasonable military arrangement, but that now we've come to our senses and realised our mistake that happily not only will it serve the course of justice, but their deaths will also serve the best interests of HM armed forces then I'm sure they'll happily form an orderly and cheerful line...

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Wanderer said:

    It's like betting on racing woodlice

    Post of the year! :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Now Richard Nabavi resorting to stock picking to try support his narrative about Brexit being disastrous. Oh dear.

    One of the most stupid comments ever made on PB, and that's in a crowded field.

    Before the referendum, I did say that some stocks (those whose revenues were predominantly from the US and elsewhere) would benefit in the short-term from Brexit, and others (those focused on the UK domestic economy) wouldn't. Of course I take no special credit for this statement of the bleedin' obvious, but it seems that the bleedin' obvious isn't obvious enough for some to understand.
    100% correct - buffoons refusing to accept anything negative is possible.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    murali_s said:

    Is there a betting market on when we invoke "Article 50"?

    Yes

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
    Oct 1 to dec 31st looks value at 3/1. I have put a few quid on.
    That's an absolute snip. Should be odds-on.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Excl: EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker plotting to seize control of Brexit negotiations to hit UK with a tough deal; https://t.co/CTNxYh7SGG

    Well at least there is the possibility that the electorate can vote him out in the next set of elections before he has the chance.....

    Oh?
  • As someone who voted to leave, I am somewhat dismayed to see the narrative on PB.COM over the last few days. There is, understandably, a great deal of emotion from both sides but
    we voted to leave the EU and, as far as I know there were 3 reasons:

    1) Sovereignty: As soon as A50 is fulfilled, if the governing body do something I don't like, I have a meaningful vote that can contribute to remove them. Also, we can then start to get decisions made by our supreme court rather than the ECJ. If that means, to begin with, we follow existing ECJ interpretation, fine.
    2) Immigration: We voted against uncontrolled immigration, there was nothing racist in my vote whatsoever, and we can either implement a points based (Australian) system or we adjust our benefits system so that we are seen as a more desirable place for those people that want to come here to better themselves and contribute to our economy and less of a charity hand out country.
    3) Economy: We would like to continue to trade with the rest of the world (including the EU) but appreciate that we would not enjoy (!) the fruits of the EU membership. So, what is the worst, the absolute worst case, of being outside of the EU/EEA/EFTA.

    It all comes down to that last question and the answer to that, for me, is what will decide whether I will have buyers remorse (as a Leave voter) or not. For instance, what is the impact of "Passporting" and is it a realistic issue or is it a risk (i.e. theoretical threats to our Financial Services which may or may not come to pass depending on the outcome of negotiations and current infrastructure of the City vs European locations).
    Finally, what is the impact of Common External Tariffs should we not strike an EEA/EFTA agreement:
    a. UK accepts CET rates of EU and imposes the same on imports from EU
    i. Britain exports to the EU based on Common External Tariffs
    ii. Imports to the EU from other countries coming via UK would continue to attract CET rates but UK doesn’t levy further rates and passes goods and CET on to EU
    iii. Imports to UK from other countries would no longer attract CET and would therefore be cheaper to UK consumers
    iv. Exports from UK to EU would now attract CET. How much would this increase export costs.

    For me, it is the answer to these last few points regarding CET that should determine our negotiation stance (I may of course be totally wrong). If we went in to a negotiation with the EU stating that we would accept CET rates, how badly would that impact our economy. Personally I have no idea but I am sure someone on this site can inform us.

    As this is a betting site, we would be far better educated if we asked, and answered, these questions as opposed to frothing off. I only ever trade in FX and I have clear views (as you will see from my post last Thursday on this site) on where those markets are going.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It occurs to me that Cameron has with three referendums stuffed both opposition parties. Libdems with AV. Lab north of border with Indyref and now Lab south of border with Euref.

    That is quite an achievement.

    Hopefully now Boris will see sense and Theresa May will be PM by Friday.

    If she is really ruthless she could then call a snap election right in the middle of Labours leader Fratricide.

    I agree with you...the politics are quite outstanding for Tory prospects...

    But, in terms of everything else, Brexit is pure evil, nihilistic, and horrible and will do our country great harm. But, heh, the Tories did well out of it so that is alright then.
    I think if May gets in she can do an EEA deal acceptable to most of the country and crisis is averted
    Despite all the talk of a terrible Tory split caused by the EU issue over the past months and years, I all along knew it would turn out like this.

    This is the ultimate victory of the Conservative party, at least in England & Wales. An established majority, the definitive broad tent governing party, of a sovereign great power.

    UKIP are also transformed into a WWC party of the Midlands/East/North... much more a threat to Labour than the Tories.
    May will certainly win the next election comfortably beating Corbyn, McDonnell, Eagle, Benn or whoever Labour put up. However an EEA/EFTA deal will annoy some lower middle class Tories in Essex and the Kent coast and parts of the Midlands too as much as the Labour WWC so UKIP could make gains from both parties. After a third Tory victory if Labour is led by an electable leader like Umunna or David Miliband things could start to be competitive again
    As a Tory member I will be voting for May, even though I'm a solid Leaver.

    UKIP types would prefer Boris, but frankly they're not important, and much more a problem for Labour.

    If Labour continue to exist that is.
    UKIP are clearly a threat to Labour but it would be complacent to deny they are a threat to the Tories too in some parts of the country, especially seaside towns
    I saw a map of the top 30 places with voters who are 65+ and they are all on the coast. Why is that is that where people go to retire?
    Always has been, the sea air and sea view always popular with the retired
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P


    '@tnewtondunn: Excl: EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker plotting to seize control of Brexit negotiations to hit UK with a tough deal; https://t.co/CTNxYh7SGG'

    Who else did you expect we would be negotiating with ?
This discussion has been closed.