politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ paradoxical leadership contest

Freggles said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Telegraph: Vodafone warns it may move its HQ out of the UK. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwgrqppys

Interesting bit at the bottom of the piece regarding data held by Visa that can't be moved out of the EU - is that a statutory obligation?

EU Data Protection Act means that only 'accredited safe havens' outside the EU can be trusted with sensitive personal information.

There is that whole issue with us companies & this.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/riskmap/2015/10/27/the-eu-safe-harbor-agreement-is-dead-heres-what-to-do-about-it/#55142d6f7171

Freggles said:

EU Data Protection Act means that only 'accredited safe havens' outside the EU can be trusted with sensitive personal information.

The Germans are particularly snotty about it.

EDS (before the HP acquisition) had all its UK payroll on systems in Germany, because they couldn't move the German ones and it was cheaper to have 1 than 2

According to the Telegraph, Brexit has caused a possible collapse of the Italian banking system. That was in the print edition, don't know what the latest is.

FrancisUrquhart said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

AndyJS said:

nunu said:

hunchman said:

AndyJS said:

Full break-down of how each ward in B'ham voted:

"The EU referendum created a huge divide in Birmingham – with more than three quarters voting to Remain in some wards and the same ratio voting Leave in others.
The Brexit battle in the city was the most fierce in the UK, with 50.4 per cent of more than 450,000 voters wanting to Leave.
New data reveals how the votes differed wildly in different parts of the city.
In all, 22 of Birmingham’s 40 wards voted to Leave, and 18 wanted to remain."

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/eu-referendum-results-your-area-11536368

Thanks Andy. Maybe I was a bit quick to pour scorn on that BBC Midlands political commentator who was saying 55 to 60% remain at the start of the night, which looks perfectly possible if he was seeing the votes from some of those wards going 75% remain.

Does that show a split amongst Asian vs White wards?

Yes. Pretty high Remain vote in the Asian areas.

Sad.

But in Leicester the Asian vote must have split a lot more evenly.

My impression was of my ethnically vibrant workmates:

Middle class Hindus for Leave.

Muslims for Remain or not voting because of Ramadan.

Afro-Caribbeans for Remain

Filipinos for Leave

Europeans with voting rights for Remain.

It was a mixed picture.

I think the initial simplic analysis is just that. The reasons people voted the way they did appears in some places a bit more complex.

One thing that I thought of why certain areas with high Asian populations might have voted leave. Lots of small business owners & people working in small close knit organisations. The sort of places that EU redtape / regs (and regs blamed on eu) has a much more noticeable affect than working for a massive multi national.

The main sentiment that I got (and reported the anecdata here) was Indian doctors and filipino nurses saying "I had to jump though hoops and take exams to get work here, why shouldn't they?"

They are already finding that those folk who do not like Greeks or Portuguese like Asians even less.

Seriously why are they bothering to challenge Jezza when he is just going to be re-elected by the membership and Unions again?

Encouraging noises in the Telegraph regarding Cameron's talks today. Nice to see the Poles and Czechs putting the boot into Junckers. The Battle of Britain II has begun!

surbiton said:

VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

If the entire Italian banking system really is about to collapse they might want to hold off on that decision for a day or two...

surbiton said:

VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

Might be moving.

You do the Remain cause no good with your hyping of job losses.

Laid £40 of Watto @: 2.45 ^_^

DecrepitJohnL said:

SquareRoot said:

SimonStClare said:

MikeL said:

Could May appoint Cameron to a top Cabinet post - ie Foreign Sec or Chancellor?

Don’t see why not – only problem I foresee, is Cameron’s final departure date. Personally I don't see him hanging around till 2020.

I cannot see that, Cameron wouldn't want if after doing the top job.

Unlikely, perhaps but not unprecedented. Sir Alec Douglas Home was Foreign Secretary after being Prime Minister, and Neville Chamberlain served in Churchill's wartime cabinet.

Great factoid – was the latter decision however, more to do with WW11 than convention?

Maybe the Queen swung it with her "give me 3 good reasons why we should stay in Europe" comment.

AndyJS said:

BBC — at least 28 dead in Turkey. 3 suicide bombers believed to have carried out attack.

Pure suicide commando attack. International terminal. The obvious suspects are IS but they have shown a marked reluctance to claim attacks in Turkey (even though they have attacked before) so it will be interesting to see if there is a claim. They do have a reason now to come out of anonymity if its them.

RodCrosby said:

RodCrosby said:

Watson heading for evens, Eagle >5...

About... turn!

No-one knows, do they?

Jezza has the Unions and the membership and gets on to the ballot because he's leader. How exactly are they getting him out?

One more time before bed:

Guarantee Clive Lewis sufficient nominations to get onto the ballot and Corbyn will resign.

Come on Watson et al, do the deal and we can have a full-on leadership election.

If it is Corbyn v Eagle I don't know if I will bother to vote.

SeanT said:

Consider this: if REMAIN had won Cameron would now be trying to awkwardly explain the "EU army" was not an "EU army" despite it clearly being an "EU army" in the form of an "EU army".

The entire narrative would be "REMAIN lied to us"

The phrase to make you shudder is 'strategic autonomy'. Look at the EU's domestic policies. Look at its track record. Do we really want an EU waving its military willy at Russia? Or trying to fix North Africa or the Middle East. Certain elements of the EU are so jealous of the USA, they want to have their own Vietnam.

AndyJS said:

Maybe the Queen swung it with her "give me 3 good reasons why we should stay in Europe" comment.

Very subtly, I suspect HMQ played her part...

My money would be on Nad if it came to a fight.

Nadine Dorries @NadineDorriesMP
I saw Anna Soubry leave the bar before she went outside. She was inebriated, not emotional. https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747902049262571520 …

"Vote of confidence in Jeremy Corbyn" petition reaches 225,000 signatures:

https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/a-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn-after-brexit?source=twitter-share-button

City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

John_M said:

surbiton said:

VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

That's not the actual story. I know we've all got axes to grind, but we deserve better. Like a lot of things, it's conditional on the UK's final agreement with the EU.

Vodaphone thinking about leaving
VISA thinking about leaving
Morgan Stanley not leaving
Bloomberg not leaving
People 'freezing' big investment

In other words - companies considering their options when a country makes a big political and economic change.

Hardly fighting for places on the last boat to get away from broken racist Britain.

The narrative will come unstuck because no sensible company will actually be prepared to DO any of this stuff on the basis of this flimsy hand-flapping episode.

SeanT said:

"Seamus, I'm Not Sure This Is A Good Idea" would make a brilliant song for The Smiths. If they reformed.

"Stop me if you think that I've sacked this one before"

SandyRentool said:

One more time before bed:

Guarantee Clive Lewis sufficient nominations to get onto the ballot and Corbyn will resign.

Come on Watson et al, do the deal and we can have a full-on leadership election.

If it is Corbyn v Eagle I don't know if I will bother to vote.

QFT

TCPoliticalBetting said:

My money would be on Nad if it came to a fight.

Nadine Dorries @NadineDorriesMP
I saw Anna Soubry leave the bar before she went outside. She was inebriated, not emotional. https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747902049262571520 …

I thought Miss Soubry said on Question Time on Sunday that it's time to "move on" from the debate?

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

It's a race between Khan and Sturgeon as to who can declare London and Scotland independent the quickest.

Sturgeon has some historical precedent on her side, and a big head start on Khan.

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

I hope Boris is reading

With free movement?

RodCrosby said:

Watson heading for evens, Eagle >5...

Gah, after I exited at a loss

Luckyguy1983 said:

John_M said:

surbiton said:

VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

That's not the actual story. I know we've all got axes to grind, but we deserve better. Like a lot of things, it's conditional on the UK's final agreement with the EU.

Vodaphone thinking about leaving
VISA thinking about leaving
Morgan Stanley not leaving
Bloomberg not leaving
People 'freezing' big investment

In other words - companies considering their options when a country makes a big political and economic change.

Hardly fighting for places on the last boat to get away from broken racist Britain.

The narrative will come unstuck because no sensible company will actually be prepared to DO any of this stuff on the basis of this flimsy hand-flapping episode.

You really think that some of these multinational companies won't move jobs out if it suits their business objectives to do so. Blindingly naïve.

AndyJS said:

MikeL said:

Big move - Leadsom just matched at 7.

Good, I'm on her at 16/1.

16/1? Pah is that all. Some PBers are on at 90/1

AndyJS said:

"Vote of confidence in Jeremy Corbyn" petition reaches 225,000 signatures:

https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/a-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn-after-brexit?source=twitter-share-button

Any from Vatican city or the British Antarctic Territory?

IanB2 said:

AndyJS said:

"Vote of confidence in Jeremy Corbyn" petition reaches 225,000 signatures:

https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/a-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn-after-brexit?source=twitter-share-button

Surely the Tories can do better than that?

I wonder how many are based in the Vatican?

Luckyguy1983 said:

John_M said:

surbiton said:

VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

That's not the actual story. I know we've all got axes to grind, but we deserve better. Like a lot of things, it's conditional on the UK's final agreement with the EU.

Vodaphone thinking about leaving
VISA thinking about leaving
Morgan Stanley not leaving
Bloomberg not leaving
People 'freezing' big investment

In other words - companies considering their options when a country makes a big political and economic change.

Hardly fighting for places on the last boat to get away from broken racist Britain.

The narrative will come unstuck because no sensible company will actually be prepared to DO any of this stuff on the basis of this flimsy hand-flapping episode.

I'd rather have a balanced narrative. It's bound to have an impact, as businesses don't like uncertainty. Post exit, there may be legal, regulatory or even commercial reasons why a company might need to relocate some, or all, of their operations to EU states.

Brexit will have Brexit related unemployment. Markets will be volatile. Based on the IMF report, we're highly likely to have a shallow recession (-.8%) next year. And so on. There has been a measurable increase in unacceptable racist and intimidatory behaviour. People are still upset and worried. There's no point in being in denial over it.

PB has been very unpleasant for at least the last fortnight. I thought we were doing very well today. I'm just appealing for a bit more civility and a bit less one-eyed posting. Except if I'm doing it, when it's naturally ok .

handandmouse said:

SandyRentool said:

One more time before bed:

Guarantee Clive Lewis sufficient nominations to get onto the ballot and Corbyn will resign.

Come on Watson et al, do the deal and we can have a full-on leadership election.

If it is Corbyn v Eagle I don't know if I will bother to vote.

QFT

Quantum Field Theory? Eh?

DanSmith said:

Pulpstar said:

Both on a drift now !

If both are drifting, suggests Corbyn resigning and a proper leadership contest taking place is increasing in probability.

People just guessing to be honest.

GIN1138 said:

Seriously why are they bothering to challenge Jezza when he is just going to be re-elected by the membership and Unions again?

In the hope he sees the damage this fight will bring and backs down. They're calling his bluff it seems. They had better hope it is a bluff.

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The main sentiment that I got (and reported the anecdata here) was Indian doctors and filipino nurses saying "I had to jump though hoops and take exams to get work here, why shouldn't they?"

They are already finding that those folk who do not like Greeks or Portuguese like Asians even less.

Are there actually any more than a small percentage of sick people who give a stuff about where their physicians, surgeons, nurses come from? Aside from perhaps some language/communication issues (which alas do occur) how many patients have an issue?

As an aside, I note that at the Renal Unit at the RSCH all the medical staff that I have had dealings with have been white Brits. At the Brighton Eye Hospital aside from a couple of the nurses, none have been. The two establishments are on either side of the road, no more than 20 yards apart. Does the medical profession run some sort of apartheid in its specialities?

As long as their English comprehension is up to snuff, who gives a shit? I've only met one doctor who I couldn't understand, and who apparently couldn't understand me. That's not a bad record, considering the Welsh NHS is even more dependent on immigrants than the English.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

I hope Boris is reading

With free movement?

Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.

Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning

SandyRentool said:

handandmouse said:

SandyRentool said:

One more time before bed:

Guarantee Clive Lewis sufficient nominations to get onto the ballot and Corbyn will resign.

Come on Watson et al, do the deal and we can have a full-on leadership election.

If it is Corbyn v Eagle I don't know if I will bother to vote.

QFT

Quantum Field Theory? Eh?

Quote(d) for truth?

Barry Gardiner used to be a Blairite at one time IIRC.

Jobabob said:

Who takes PMQs tomorrow? My guess is that Independent Labour (172) won't stage an official coup in the Commons because they'll want to see Official Labour (40) suffer. Constitutionally the SNP (56) have a case to declare they are the official Opposition unless and until the Labour rebels complete the revolt by appointing one of their own as leader in the Commons.

In any case, it's a rare Tuesday night indeed when one of four MPs (Robertson, Watson, Eagle, Corbyn) could theoretically be called to the dispatch box the following day.

Tony Blair is available I hear.

Monksfield said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

John_M said:

surbiton said:

VISA moving hundreds of jobs to Europe.

That's not the actual story. I know we've all got axes to grind, but we deserve better. Like a lot of things, it's conditional on the UK's final agreement with the EU.

Vodaphone thinking about leaving
VISA thinking about leaving
Morgan Stanley not leaving
Bloomberg not leaving
People 'freezing' big investment

In other words - companies considering their options when a country makes a big political and economic change.

Hardly fighting for places on the last boat to get away from broken racist Britain.

The narrative will come unstuck because no sensible company will actually be prepared to DO any of this stuff on the basis of this flimsy hand-flapping episode.

You really think that some of these multinational companies won't move jobs out if it suits their business objectives to do so. Blindingly naïve.

Of course they will. Just like Ford moved out of Southampton (inside the EU) to Turkey (outside the EU).

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

I hope Boris is reading

With free movement?

Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.

Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning

I'm assuming that's sarcasm, right? Let's just ignore the 48% remainers, hmm? I have no idea how many Leavers think that controlled migration = 0 migration. Let's just be charitable, call them idiots and ignore them.

To be honest most of my theoretical profit in the Labour leadership market comes from this one weird trick:

Lay: David Miliband 9.71 £98.72 £860.25

TheScreamingEagles said:

Unfortunately the country voted for Brexit with no free movement.

We must respect the will of the people, or Nigel Farage will become even more odious in his campaigning

The country voted to exit the EU, but not the direction, means or duration of exit.
We need a democratic process to figure this out, alongside a means of reassuring business and the people.

The political class are just scribbling ideas on bits of paper at present.

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

I hope Boris is reading

With free movement?

Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.

I fear that this is being pushed because people think it will save the union with Scotland, but it won't be enough. We need EU + FoM reform.

Exactly. And a process to get there.

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

YellowSubmarine said:

City A.M.: Bye London hello Edinburgh? Finance won't stay if we exit the Single Market. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw9Miapys

SO WE STAY IN THE EFFING SINGLE MARKET

I hope Boris is reading

With free movement?

Yes. With some promises that we will revisit it in time, to see if it has worked, and the proviso that we have a sort of emergency brake. Not ideal, but there we are.

Incidentally, the News at Ten reports Gordon Brown is tomorrow coming out for this solution: EEA with emergency brake.

A consensus is forming. i think it could command 60% of the voters. We're out, but in the single market. The EU will also want this.

The EU army thing, today, by itself, renders all dreams of continued EU membership utterly inoperable.

I fear that this is being pushed because people think it will save the union with Scotland, but it won't be enough. We need EU + FoM reform.

No, we are leaving the EU.

EFTA+EEA is clearly gaining momentum and is an excellent short/medium term solution. Implementing a quota system similar to that of Liechtenstein would keep those wanting restrictions on immigration happy.