politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn loses the confidence vote by a huge margin

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

WTAF?

@mrianleslie: In this interview Daniel Hannan says the Leave campaign was NOT about disassociating the UK from the EU https://t.co/6FW9agTL2d

That cannot be the literal quote!?

It isn't. Scott is doing his normal fuckwitted lying again.

If you watch the video from about 7 minutes onwards you will see that Scott's comments are garbage.

Everything before that point is the interviewer trying to pin racist attacks on Leave.

chestnut said:

The Shadow Cabinet of Jeremy Corbyn will be the longest article on wiki fairly soon.

Instead of working out the dates of when each person joined and left, they will have to use a stopwatch.

Bravo sir!!

Charles said:

DavidL said:

David_Evershed said:

DavidL said:

So are the PLP going to put up Watson for PMQs tomorrow? That surely would be a humiliation too far.

The Speaker would not call Watson. He would call Corbyn.

According to the legislation which was quoted earlier he will call the leader of the largest opposition group in that House of Parliament. That is not necessarily the same as the leader of the Labour Party. If the Speaker were convinced that Watson had the majority support of the PLP he would have to call him. The Speaker's decision is final.

I don't believe so. I think it said the "Leader in the House" of the party with the most opposition seats. Now, for me, that means (1) it is Labour Party or a split off with more than half of the seats and (2) *if* Watson is the "Leader in the House" of the Labour Party then the Speaker will call him.

The "Leader in the House" does not have to be the same as the "Leader of the Party". But it does turn on whether the PLP has the right under Labour's constitution which, for some strange reason, I have never got round to reading, to appoint it own leader or not

Whether they have the right may be a different question from whether they have in fact done that today. I think this is quite tricky for the Speaker and I am sure his staff will anxiously be trying to ascertain Mr Watson's intentions.

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Breaking - Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, says 'if I had lost support of 80pc of my MSPs I could not do my job'

@bbclaurak: By implication Dugdale calling on Corbyn to go

I love that second tweet, just in case readers hadn't figured it out.

I think the BBC are less confident about what the great British public understand since Brexit. They thought that they had been sufficiently clear.

In fairness, Dugdale could well have followed up that statement with "But Jeremy has massive support in the party, so he can".

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Breaking - Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, says 'if I had lost support of 80pc of my MSPs I could not do my job'

@bbclaurak: By implication Dugdale calling on Corbyn to go

To be fair, if she'd lost 80% it would be just her and a couple of mates...

kle4 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Number Cruncher
ICM/Guardian (Online):

CON 36 (+2)
LAB 32 (-1)
LD 7 (-2)
UKIP 15 (+1)
GRN 5 (=)
SNP 5 (+1)

26th-28th June
N~2,000
https://t.co/QlWB4QvCgL

If the SNP get 100 in Scotland can they get to 6?

100% in Scotland would be between 8% and 9%.

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

WTAF?

@mrianleslie: In this interview Daniel Hannan says the Leave campaign was NOT about disassociating the UK from the EU https://t.co/6FW9agTL2d

That cannot be the literal quote!?

He's saying we need to repatriate powers but can't ignore the 48%.

Amanpour: I thought this referendum was about disassociating from the EU.
Hannan: I get that you thought that. You were evidently not listening.
Amanpour: So it wasn't?
Hannan: Correct.

Partial quoting again. You really are a despicable piece of shit.

You ok hun?

JosiasJessop said:

HS2: it all depends on Euston. It needs doing right, yet just that small area could easily sink billions. I still have not seen anything disproving the need for capacity enhancement, and the utter failure of the WCML upgrade ten years ago shows that capacity is hard to increase on working railways.

I don't know a lot about rail infrastructure. I understand there is widespread agreement on increasing capacity. I am also led to understand that a large part of HS2's cost comes from the engineering challenges you face if you want to make the trains really fast.

Something beyond my ken: if you are faced with budget limitations, and capacity is the main issue, why not just make the trains "quite fast" instead? We are talking about distances much smaller than spanning France or Spain, so the difference between "really fast" and "quite fast" won't translate into that many minutes of journey time, which (to my layman's eyes) doesn't seem to affect the fundamental business plan.

Usually there is something more subtle going on that a know-nothing like me is missing, but it does smell a bit "grand project" and there's rarely much gap between that and a white elephant.

PlatoSaid said:

Number Cruncher
ICM/Guardian (Online):

CON 36 (+2)
LAB 32 (-1)
LD 7 (-2)
UKIP 15 (+1)
GRN 5 (=)
SNP 5 (+1)

26th-28th June
N~2,000
https://t.co/QlWB4QvCgL

The surprising thing is that the Conservatives are doing reasonably well despite the referendum.

The amazing thing is that Labour have not dropped more - or are the resignations too recent to have been factored fully into the fieldwork?

Pulpstar said:

Jobabob said:

Bravo sir!!

Any news on Charlie Falconer ?

He resigned yesterday.

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

taffys said:

Mr. JS, Corbyn can survive. Not sure about Labour, though.

Mr Morris If Corbyn goes back to the membership, and they confirm him, what on earth happens then?

Progress Labour buggers off and at least 15 years of Tory Governments ensues as left vote is split between Labour and progress Labour until progress Labour gives it up as a bad job

Looking on the bright side at least we get to find out who was most out of touch with WWC,

I think Progress Lab are in for a shock but we will see.

Maybe the Members will back down

Yep - I think we can all see the working class flocking to support Corbyn Labour's pro open door immigration, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas platform. When you are living in a dump and not earning enough to warm your house in winter solidarity with the Palestinians is what keeps you going.

Labour splitters have faired worse in the past.

When Lab splits which I now see as very likely.

We will find our if Lab or SDP 2 proves most popular.

You up for a bet when that point is reached?

MarkHopkins said:

Good News.
Pressure has eased on UK financial markets after two days of turmoil in the wake of the Brexit vote, with the FTSE 100 share index closing higher.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36648630

Bad news for Sky, BBC, C4 and ITV

BTW, not sure if it was posted. But the vote in the Scottish Parliament to give Nicola Sturgeon a blank cheque was 92-0 with 31 Abstentions.

In other words, the Tories may well be split as suggested before.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

WTAF?

@mrianleslie: In this interview Daniel Hannan says the Leave campaign was NOT about disassociating the UK from the EU https://t.co/6FW9agTL2d

That cannot be the literal quote!?

He's saying we need to repatriate powers but can't ignore the 48%.

Amanpour: I thought this referendum was about disassociating from the EU.
Hannan: I get that you thought that. You were evidently not listening.
Amanpour: So it wasn't?
Hannan: Correct.

Partial quoting again. You really are a despicable piece of shit.

You ok hun?

No. I don't like fuckwits who misrepresent people. I spend all my time on here trying to be straight and factual and attacking both sides when they misrepresent. You clearly have no interest in the truth. You are pretty much the embodiment of what is wrong with political debate in this country.

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

Tory MP Jacob Rees Mogg has come out against membership of the single market and free movement

And?

It may not be a popular opinion on here but actually a fair few very prosperous countries around the world find it possible to trade with the EU despite not being a member of the single market or having to accept free movement.

If Corbyn or McDonnell come out against it and unite with Tory backbenchers like Rees Mogg we could be outside EFTA too but I think the majority of the Commons would back a single market and free movement deal

Pulpstar said:

Jobabob said:

Bravo sir!!

Any news on Charlie Falconer ?

Still resigned.

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Third favourite in the next Labour leader market is currently David Miliband.

Is that wishful thinking from those hoping Corbyn stays in place for now?

That market's a complete mess. 3/1 on each of Watson and Eagle gives 6/4 the pair, but how will they even define Labour if we get an SDP2 split next week - JC could be there for years yet, tying up everyone's cash!

If he does I will just extract myself from my lay on David Miliband. Got a rather healthy green balance on everyone else...

DavidL said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

David_Evershed said:

DavidL said:

So are the PLP going to put up Watson for PMQs tomorrow? That surely would be a humiliation too far.

The Speaker would not call Watson. He would call Corbyn.

According to the legislation which was quoted earlier he will call the leader of the largest opposition group in that House of Parliament. That is not necessarily the same as the leader of the Labour Party. If the Speaker were convinced that Watson had the majority support of the PLP he would have to call him. The Speaker's decision is final.

I don't believe so. I think it said the "Leader in the House" of the party with the most opposition seats. Now, for me, that means (1) it is Labour Party or a split off with more than half of the seats and (2) *if* Watson is the "Leader in the House" of the Labour Party then the Speaker will call him.

The "Leader in the House" does not have to be the same as the "Leader of the Party". But it does turn on whether the PLP has the right under Labour's constitution which, for some strange reason, I have never got round to reading, to appoint it own leader or not

Whether they have the right may be a different question from whether they have in fact done that today. I think this is quite tricky for the Speaker and I am sure his staff will anxiously be trying to ascertain Mr Watson's intentions.

I agree - but for the Speaker to call a different leader if the PLP's right to select one isn't clear would be to accept the principle that de facto trumps de jure.

Boothroyd or Weatherill wouldn't have considered it for a moment. I don't think Bercow has the common sense to steer well clear.

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

You will see exactly how low William has stooped.

You will see exactly how low Dan has stooped.

He really is trying to claim they didn't win on Farage's "kick out the foreigners" campaign.

Ah. Got called out on one claim so now change your tune entirely and attack on something else.

Like I said. Dishonest Fuckwit.

bigjohnowls said:

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

taffys said:

Mr. JS, Corbyn can survive. Not sure about Labour, though.

Mr Morris If Corbyn goes back to the membership, and they confirm him, what on earth happens then?

Progress Labour buggers off and at least 15 years of Tory Governments ensues as left vote is split between Labour and progress Labour until progress Labour gives it up as a bad job

Looking on the bright side at least we get to find out who was most out of touch with WWC,

I think Progress Lab are in for a shock but we will see.

Maybe the Members will back down

Yep - I think we can all see the working class flocking to support Corbyn Labour's pro open door immigration, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas platform. When you are living in a dump and not earning enough to warm your house in winter solidarity with the Palestinians is what keeps you going.

Labour splitters have faired worse in the past.

When Lab splits which I now see as very likely.

We will find our if Lab or SDP 2 proves most popular.

You up for a bet when that point is reached?

Again, the irony is that an SDP v2 would be based exactly on the principles behind the "Remain" campaign -- the campaign that just got hammered by the voters.

For all the Labour moderates' asserting (without evidence) that they know how to win elections, their mixture of economic conservatism/cultural liberalism has never been less popular with the country.

AlastairMeeks said:

Third favourite in the next Labour leader market is currently David Miliband.

He will not touch it with a bargepole, he is happy earning triple the salary of the Labour leader in Manhattan

This week has to be one of the strongest arguments for less government

how do these people rule us

Charles said:

DavidL said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

David_Evershed said:

DavidL said:

So are the PLP going to put up Watson for PMQs tomorrow? That surely would be a humiliation too far.

The Speaker would not call Watson. He would call Corbyn.

According to the legislation which was quoted earlier he will call the leader of the largest opposition group in that House of Parliament. That is not necessarily the same as the leader of the Labour Party. If the Speaker were convinced that Watson had the majority support of the PLP he would have to call him. The Speaker's decision is final.

I don't believe so. I think it said the "Leader in the House" of the party with the most opposition seats. Now, for me, that means (1) it is Labour Party or a split off with more than half of the seats and (2) *if* Watson is the "Leader in the House" of the Labour Party then the Speaker will call him.

The "Leader in the House" does not have to be the same as the "Leader of the Party". But it does turn on whether the PLP has the right under Labour's constitution which, for some strange reason, I have never got round to reading, to appoint it own leader or not

Whether they have the right may be a different question from whether they have in fact done that today. I think this is quite tricky for the Speaker and I am sure his staff will anxiously be trying to ascertain Mr Watson's intentions.

I agree - but for the Speaker to call a different leader if the PLP's right to select one isn't clear would be to accept the principle that de facto trumps de jure.

Boothroyd or Weatherill wouldn't have considered it for a moment. I don't think Bercow has the common sense to steer well clear.

Bercow would do it for entertainment value alone....

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

WTAF?

@mrianleslie: In this interview Daniel Hannan says the Leave campaign was NOT about disassociating the UK from the EU https://t.co/6FW9agTL2d

That cannot be the literal quote!?

He's saying we need to repatriate powers but can't ignore the 48%.

Amanpour: I thought this referendum was about disassociating from the EU.
Hannan: I get that you thought that. You were evidently not listening.
Amanpour: So it wasn't?
Hannan: Correct.

Partial quoting again. You really are a despicable piece of shit.

You ok hun?

No. I don't like fuckwits who misrepresent people. I spend all my time on here trying to be straight and factual and attacking both sides when they misrepresent. You clearly have no interest in the truth. You are pretty much the embodiment of what is wrong with political debate in this country.

You're projecting.

The interesting part of the video is the first minute where Hannan clearly leaves all options open. I quoted the bit near the end in full because that was the except used in the tweet.

You don't quote it in full. He immediately explained what he wants and makes it clear that means being outside the EU. Or couldn't you actually be bothered to listen to the rest after you had your partial quote?

HYUFD - what about after the next general election?

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

You will see exactly how low William has stooped.

You will see exactly how low Dan has stooped.

He really is trying to claim they didn't win on Farage's "kick out the foreigners" campaign.

A|rron Banks sounded unrepentant on the Radio, will hold Boris' feet to the fire.

And UKIP have a great 17 million number for future posters. Nigel and Arron both clear - OUT means OUT !

Indeed - you'd have to be a suicidally confident MP or Leader to be sure millions of those people would either be happy to remain with a slightly different deal, or happy to be out but with little difference. No one is likely to be that confident.

Mr. Brooke, poorly?

Edited extra bit: that said, Plato [Mr. not Miss] said that a failure to involve oneself in politics led to being governed by one's inferiors.

Oh my.

https://twitter.com/matt9dawson/status/747831712873328640

eek said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

David_Evershed said:

DavidL said:

So are the PLP going to put up Watson for PMQs tomorrow? That surely would be a humiliation too far.

The Speaker would not call Watson. He would call Corbyn.

According to the legislation which was quoted earlier he will call the leader of the largest opposition group in that House of Parliament. That is not necessarily the same as the leader of the Labour Party. If the Speaker were convinced that Watson had the majority support of the PLP he would have to call him. The Speaker's decision is final.

I don't believe so. I think it said the "Leader in the House" of the party with the most opposition seats. Now, for me, that means (1) it is Labour Party or a split off with more than half of the seats and (2) *if* Watson is the "Leader in the House" of the Labour Party then the Speaker will call him.

The "Leader in the House" does not have to be the same as the "Leader of the Party". But it does turn on whether the PLP has the right under Labour's constitution which, for some strange reason, I have never got round to reading, to appoint it own leader or not

Whether they have the right may be a different question from whether they have in fact done that today. I think this is quite tricky for the Speaker and I am sure his staff will anxiously be trying to ascertain Mr Watson's intentions.

I agree - but for the Speaker to call a different leader if the PLP's right to select one isn't clear would be to accept the principle that de facto trumps de jure.

Boothroyd or Weatherill wouldn't have considered it for a moment. I don't think Bercow has the common sense to steer well clear.

Bercow would do it for entertainment value alone....

Clearly the Speaker is the only person who can be PM right now, he can command the majority of the house, sort of.

More self-inflicted harm. We were specifically warned about this one on here ...

http://qz.com/717626/after-brexit-the-race-is-on-to-replace-london-as-europes-startup-capital/

eek said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

David_Evershed said:

DavidL said:

So are the PLP going to put up Watson for PMQs tomorrow? That surely would be a humiliation too far.

The Speaker would not call Watson. He would call Corbyn.

According to the legislation which was quoted earlier he will call the leader of the largest opposition group in that House of Parliament. That is not necessarily the same as the leader of the Labour Party. If the Speaker were convinced that Watson had the majority support of the PLP he would have to call him. The Speaker's decision is final.

I don't believe so. I think it said the "Leader in the House" of the party with the most opposition seats. Now, for me, that means (1) it is Labour Party or a split off with more than half of the seats and (2) *if* Watson is the "Leader in the House" of the Labour Party then the Speaker will call him.

The "Leader in the House" does not have to be the same as the "Leader of the Party". But it does turn on whether the PLP has the right under Labour's constitution which, for some strange reason, I have never got round to reading, to appoint it own leader or not

I think it may come down to does the PLP explicitly NOT have the right under Labour's constitution to appoint a leader...

After all its sometimes better to ask for forgiveness rather than waiting for agreement..

Because I am a sad bastard:

http://www.labourcounts.com/constitution.htm

Clause 7 - Party Officers and Statutory Officers

1 Party officers

1A Leader and deputy leader

(a) There shall be a leader and deputy leader of the party who shall, ex-officio, be leader and deputy leader of the PLP.

(b) The leader and deputy leader of the party shall be elected or re-elected from among Commons members of the PLP in accordance with procedural rule 4B.2, at a party conference convened in accordance with clause VI of these rules. In respect to the election of the leader and deputy leader, the standing orders of the PLP shall always automatically be brought into line with these rules.

Leader / Deputy Leader of the party are ex-officio leader/deputy leader of the PLP

Doesn't seem to be any doubt in the matter to me.

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

National - Survey Monkey/NBC - Sample 6,556

Clinton 49 .. Trump 41

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-democratic-wave-isn-t-coming-least-not-yet-n600201

SurveyMonkey had Remain winning EUref

PPP has Clinton ahead by just 2 in Iowa today and 4 in Pennsylvania and Ohio

Indeed. Ahead in all the national polls by 5-8 points and all the swing states too.

Andypet said:

Is it possible that May could out Brexit Boris? Could she say that her sole reason for remaining was based on security and was predicated on being a full member? If we are not to be a member, then our security is best served by not having free movement.

I don't see how you can distance yourself from Remain/Leave support. It's been a big issue in UK politics for years. The referendum just pushed politicians to publicly pick a side.

Alanbrooke said:

This week has to be one of the strongest arguments for less government

how do these people rule us

Not well.

anotherDave said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

rottenborough said:

Just in case PBers haven't noticed this, Guido has a spreadsheet on nominations for Boris and Co.
Boris: 25 Crabb: 16 May: 8
Looks like Crabb wanted to be up and running quickly.

ConHome numbers - I can only see a chance for the first 5. The REMAINer vote is 44%. LEAVEr vote is 56%. If a LEAVEr gets on ballot then they win IMHO.

Theresa May: 29 per cent.
Boris Johnson: 28 per cent.
Andrea Leadsom: 13 per cent.
Liam Fox: 13 per cent.
Stephen Crabb: 9 per cent.

Sajid Javid: 2 per cent. Dominic Raab: 2 per cent. George Osborne: 2 per cent. Nicky Morgan: 1 per cent. Jeremy Hunt: 1 per cent. Amber Rudd: 0 per cent.

I'm surprised the Remain support is so high. Going to be interesting to see the verdict on this one.

Yes, REMAIN doing better than expected however it maybe that Theresa is attracting some of the LEAVErs. On a separate note, Leadsom at 13% is remarkable and should encourage her to stand to at least force herself into the cabinet, maybe as Chancellor. She is a clean skin compared to Fox and should pick up MP votes at each stage. Osborne is an abysmal 2% although part of that is deflated by his announcement not to stand today. PS Osborne and 2% support has a certain similarity to his national rating amongst all voters.

MyBurningEars said:

JosiasJessop said:

HS2: it all depends on Euston. It needs doing right, yet just that small area could easily sink billions. I still have not seen anything disproving the need for capacity enhancement, and the utter failure of the WCML upgrade ten years ago shows that capacity is hard to increase on working railways.

I don't know a lot about rail infrastructure. I understand there is widespread agreement on increasing capacity. I am also led to understand that a large part of HS2's cost comes from the engineering challenges you face if you want to make the trains really fast.

Something beyond my ken: if you are faced with budget limitations, and capacity is the main issue, why not just make the trains "quite fast" instead? We are talking about distances much smaller than spanning France or Spain, so the difference between "really fast" and "quite fast" won't translate into that many minutes of journey time, which (to my layman's eyes) doesn't seem to affect the fundamental business plan.

Usually there is something more subtle going on that a know-nothing like me is missing, but it does smell a bit "grand project" and there's rarely much gap between that and a white elephant.

I think there's a section(s) on this in one of he HS2 reports: from memory, the faster trains go, the fewer you can fit on any section of line (mainly due to braking distances). However, having slower-speed and faster-speed services on the same track reduces capacity much more. Therefore you might as well go for trains gong fast at roughly the same speed. And if you're doing that, you make them go fast. Especially as that makes them more competitive against air services.

There are many problems with this: one is that you need long multi-track sections to allow stopping services to get up to line speed before they join the main line. This is a positive disincentive to having stopping stations.

But there's a reason why so many countries opt for high-speed rail. And it's not just for civic pride.

(I could go into how much of the wheel-rail interaction required for high-speed rail was developed at Derby in the 1950s and 1960s (*) and then given away to Japan, France et al. But I'll just raise my blood pressure).

I can recommend reading HS2's reports, and especially the ones (?Atkins?) that compare it to rival proposals.

(*) e.g. http://www.traintesting.com/HSFV1-6.htm

anotherDave said:

Andypet said:

Is it possible that May could out Brexit Boris? Could she say that her sole reason for remaining was based on security and was predicated on being a full member? If we are not to be a member, then our security is best served by not having free movement.

I don't see how you can distance yourself from Remain/Leave support. It's been a big issue in UK politics for years. The referendum just pushed politicians to publicly pick a side.

The way to finesse the argument is to say 'The people have decided and I believe I have the most sensible approach going forward....'

YouGov's analysis of the referendum polling is notably catty.

"They hired a former city trader to conduct an analysis of whether the telephone polls or the online polls were more reliable. The report, which now turns out to have been completely wrong, became extremely influential despite YouGov’s strong arguments at the time that it was based on flimsy evidence and circular logic."

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right/

David_Evershed said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

John fucking Baron

Ferfuxsake

Fucking John Baron

From David Cameron to John Baron.

Fucking hell, what the fuck have I done to deserve that?

Joining the LDs if he wins?

No, I shall be a one nation liberal Tory without a home.

Or become an Orange Book Lib Dem and help keep out any right wing Labour deserters.

After the coalition slaughter, surely the LDs don't want to move in an Orange Book direction?

@PolhomeEditor: Shadow minister: "No-one disputes that Jeremy was elected by the members. But not for life. It isn't North Korea."

Mr. P, hmm.

If Corbyn wins a vote of members, I wonder if the Lib Dems or UKIP benefit more.

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

TGOHF said:

Kay Burley@KayBurley 9m9 minutes ago

BREAK: President of European council, Tusk, tells Sturgeon he's not interested in meeting her tomorrow

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The eurocrats can't snub lovely Nicola like this!

They see Scotland as a region of the U.K not a country.

"And by 'country', we mean a sovereign state that's a member of the UN in its own right."
- Richard Osman, Pointless

anotherDave said:

Andypet said:

Is it possible that May could out Brexit Boris? Could she say that her sole reason for remaining was based on security and was predicated on being a full member? If we are not to be a member, then our security is best served by not having free movement.

I don't see how you can distance yourself from Remain/Leave support. It's been a big issue in UK politics for years. The referendum just pushed politicians to publicly pick a side.

Mrs May ducked the referendum and flip flopped on her beliefs. Not what Thatcher would have done. May is more of a Rubber Lady than an Iron Lady.

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think I might write a thread header headlined

'Is David Cameron the ideal leader for a breakaway SDP Mark 2 party comprising the right wing of the Labour Party, One Nation Tories, and Orange bookers'

With Nick Clegg as his able Deputy presumably...

Hey, a lot of people may be nostalgic for the Coalition if things get worse. Not enough to vote against tribal politics should such a scenario happen, but still.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think I might write a thread header headlined
'Is David Cameron the ideal leader for a breakaway SDP Mark 2 party comprising the right wing of the Labour Party, One Nation Tories, and Orange bookers'

Osborne would be.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

anotherDave said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

rottenborough said:

Just in case PBers haven't noticed this, Guido has a spreadsheet on nominations for Boris and Co.
Boris: 25 Crabb: 16 May: 8
Looks like Crabb wanted to be up and running quickly.

ConHome numbers - I can only see a chance for the first 5. The REMAINer vote is 44%. LEAVEr vote is 56%. If a LEAVEr gets on ballot then they win IMHO.

Theresa May: 29 per cent.
Boris Johnson: 28 per cent.
Andrea Leadsom: 13 per cent.
Liam Fox: 13 per cent.
Stephen Crabb: 9 per cent.

Sajid Javid: 2 per cent. Dominic Raab: 2 per cent. George Osborne: 2 per cent. Nicky Morgan: 1 per cent. Jeremy Hunt: 1 per cent. Amber Rudd: 0 per cent.

I'm surprised the Remain support is so high. Going to be interesting to see the verdict on this one.

Yes, REMAIN doing better than expected however it maybe that Theresa is attracting some of the LEAVErs. On a separate note, Leadsom at 13% is remarkable and should encourage her to stand to at least force herself into the cabinet, maybe as Chancellor. She is a clean skin compared to Fox and should pick up MP votes at each stage. Osborne is an abysmal 2% although part of that is deflated by his announcement not to stand today. PS Osborne and 2% support has a certain similarity to his national rating amongst all voters.

I really liked Ms Leadsom during the referendum campaign. Fingers crossed for her.

(I've also got £10 @ 16/1!)

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

MarkHopkins said:

Good News.

Pressure has eased on UK financial markets after two days of turmoil in the wake of the Brexit vote, with the FTSE 100 share index closing higher.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36648630

Considering most of our politicians are behaving like idiots that does rather nail the were all doomed meme.

Yes kind of dents the frothers and doom merchants on here , they can stop peeing their pants