I presume this 6pm ConHome "poll" is good for Boris, given the movements this afternoon. I'd prefer a YouGov of members - took part in one last night though of course it may be private.
Right now it's increasingly hard to imagine any post general election path to a stable government.
The only thing for sure is that either 650 or 600 (ok that's not certain either) are going to be elected. And somebody has to win each seat no matter how crap all the parties are. It may prove a bit more random than in the past but there is a great conservatism in FPTP until there isn't (as in SLAB-v-SNP 2015).
O/T- why do dogs go absolutely bonkers when the door bell goes? I mean the dog response is so completely disproportionate to what that bell ring could possibly bring.
McCluskey: “The extraordinary behaviour of Labour MPs has achieved nothing beyond diverting attention from a Tory government in crisis.
“If anyone wants to change the Labour leadership, they must do it openly and democratically through an election, not through resignations and pointless posturing. If there has to be such an election, Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters throughout the movement will be ready for it.”
Looking increasingly likely that Jezza will still be around next Wednesday for the Chilcot Report doesn't it?
That can only mean that Boris is planning to betray the Brexit camp.
Golly, what a shock verdict from you. Seriously, give it a rest - dozens of posts all saying the same thing. We get it - you voted Remain and the World Will End.
How about commenting on something else just for variety?
You do realise Corbyn will have 36 MPs to nominate him.
you need 50.
He needs NO nominations according to the rule book
Differing legal advice. And the NEC's final decision is very unlikely to be overturnable in court.
They're going to end up in front of a judge before the contest even starts! This is completely farcical, where are Labour's men in dark suits, carrying a bottle of whisky and a revolver?
It didn't happen. It couldn't have happened. A vile 'Remainian' rumour.
I cant think of any hate incidents ever happening on trams in the years before the referendum.
I travel on these trams quite often and have never seen any incident before. People and the media need to be very careful where they are going with this.
There have been rather a lot of well documented by bystanders incidents of racial abuse on trams and other public transport in recent years, most of which first end up on social media and then before the beak.
My suspicion is that at the moments euro racial incidents are more likely to be reported as immigration is the in topic. It is probably likely that some neanderthals think they will be more likely to get away with it at the moment. Either way I have full confidence in inspector knacker to apprehend them.
What annoys me and I suspect many others is people exploiting these incidents and basically shouting that it is all my fault for daring to exercise my democratic right to vote in a way they dont like in a referendum because wanting my country to run its own affairs and not be ruled over by unelected officials in a superstate is clearly equivalent to wanting to join the hitler youth or whatever other insult is flavour of the day.
'If Yvette campaigns for the leadership on a europhile plus renegotiation on FOM ticket and stuff it up the Tories, she stands a good chance of winning'
Can't see the labour party in its current form surviving this
The problem is under FPTP a split would be devastating. Suppose the current Lab voters split 2/3rds for Labour party 1 and a 1/3 for Labour party 2 under UNS then the result would be:
Con +51 seats LD +3 UKIP + 3 Green +1 SNP+1 Plaid +1 Combined Labour parties -60
The Tories would win lots of seats on 30-35% against split opposition e.g Coventry NW currently 30% Con, 40% Lab so the MP would have to retain 75% of their vote after the split to have a chance of having on.
It's 20% for a challenge, including MEPs - 229+20 = 249. I think he'd struggle to get 50.
But it's only higher at 20% because the presumption is the existing leader is automatically on it.
That's right. Its 20% for a challenger to the incumbant not for the incumbant.
I agree that the rational reading of the rulebook is that Corbyn is on the ballot. However it is more than possible that the General Secretary and the NEC decide to read the rulebook irrationally. I would in their shoes.
O/T- why do dogs go absolutely bonkers when the door bell goes? I mean the dog response is so completely disproportionate to what that bell ring could possibly bring.
Surely they are just warning their pack of a potential threat from an unknown intruder which is what they are supposed to do. Have you tried barking back?
We're laughing now (and why not) - but if Labour do somehow prise Corbyn from the Precious, and then campaign on REMAIN against a Tory LEAVE they might do quite well; and if they campaign on a STAY IN SINGLE MARKET versus Bojo's LEAVE SINGLE MARKET they'd probably win
Big mistake by Boris to rule out a general election if he becomes leader IMO.
It's hard to see how a GE can occur before 2020 because an early election now requires a two thirds majority in the House of Commons, the Tories and Labour can't both be ahead in the polls at the same time and one of them would veto the idea. The SNP have all but three of Scotland's seats, they can only go backwards, so they won't want one either. Another way is to have a vote of no confidence where the Tories vote to have no confidence in themselves, the mantle is then passed to the opposition and if there is another vote of no confidence in them within 14 days, the speaker can call an early election, but it all seems a bit convoluted and they wont endear themselves to the voters. They could try to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, but it would probably be delayed in the Lords.
Mr. JS, Corbyn can survive. Not sure about Labour, though.
Mr Morris If Corbyn goes back to the membership, and they confirm him, what on earth happens then?
Progress Labour buggers off and at least 15 years of Tory Governments ensues as left vote is split between Labour and progress Labour until progress Labour gives it up as a bad job
Looking on the bright side at least we get to find out who was most out of touch with WWC,
I think Progress Lab are in for a shock but we will see.
''If Yvette campaigns for the leadership on a europhile plus renegotiation on FOM ticket and stuff it up the Tories, she stands a good chance of winning ''
True but the membership will never vote for Yvette Cooper, surely. They will gleefully vote in Corbyn again because they despise many labour MPs.
We're laughing now (and why not) - but if Labour do somehow prise Corbyn from the Precious, and then campaign on REMAIN against a Tory LEAVE they might do quite well; and if they campaign on a STAY IN SINGLE MARKET versus Bojo's LEAVE SINGLE MARKET they'd probably win
Indeed - I'd be tempted to vote for that.
In London and parts of the South. Up north UKIP would eat them alive once they stopped partying from joy....
We're laughing now (and why not) - but if Labour do somehow prise Corbyn from the Precious, and then campaign on REMAIN against a Tory LEAVE they might do quite well; and if they campaign on a STAY IN SINGLE MARKET versus Bojo's LEAVE SINGLE MARKET they'd probably win
That is more or less what I wrote yesterday. Depends on who the Leader will be though. I am beginning to prefer Yvette, again. Failing which Tom Watson to carry the party.
Yvette would be great. Her against Boris would be the best combo for Labour. Following Sean's suggested ticket, above*
*Note that Boris will not run on a 'leave single market' ticket. He may be a clown but he is not mad. The City will not in any case allow such irresponsibility.
In what way would the City disallow it?
They wouldn't fund the party if ran to leave the single market.
The real question I guess is whether places like Poland and RoI also switch to EFTA once we join.
You didn't take long to crater. From dreaming of a resurgent Commonwealth block to wanting to sign up to be a satellite of the EU, pronto. I can only conclude that Brexit is not turning out as you thought it would.
The two are in no way incompatible. The EFTA/EEA option is basically a free trade agreement with the EU. Dosent even req us to follow single market rules for domestic trade.
@PolhomeEditor: Colleen Fletcher resigns as Labour's PPS at DEFRA. Means their DEFRA team comprises of Shadow Secretary Rachel Maskell and, er, that's it.
Manuel Cortes, general secretary of the Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association, also backed Corbyn. He said:
'It is almost unbelievable to watch the Labour Party plunge into a crisis of its own making as its MPs involve themselves in childish, self-indulgent behaviour which doesn’t befit their office.'
Big mistake by Boris to rule out a general election if he becomes leader IMO.
It's hard to see how a GE can occur before 2020 because an early election now requires a two thirds majority in the House of Commons, the Tories and Labour can't both be ahead in the polls at the same time and one of them would veto the idea. The SNP have all but three of Scotland's seats, they can only go backwards, so they won't want one either. Another way is to have a vote of no confidence where the Tories vote to have no confidence in themselves, the mantle is then passed to the opposition and if there is another vote of no confidence in them within 14 days, the speaker can call an early election, but it all seems a bit convoluted and they wont endear themselves to the voters. They could try to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, but it would probably be delayed in the Lords.
Noooooo.
The SNP Never goes backwards.
Any loss of vote or MPs is a continuing triumphal March in lockstep into the future.
Just don't forget the beer crate for the Boss to stand on.
Manuel Cortes, general secretary of the Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association, also backed Corbyn. He said:
'It is almost unbelievable to watch the Labour Party plunge into a crisis of its own making as its MPs involve themselves in childish, self-indulgent behaviour which doesn’t befit their office.'
Makes you realise how antiquated and out of touch the trade unions are.
BBC — Boris won't call general election if he becomes Tory leader.
I'm inclined to think it would be wiser not to do so. A GE would simply add to the turmoil & uncertainty. After all, Mr Cameron originally said he had no intention of resigning if Leave won.
(Good afternoon, everyone.)
He's going to have difficulty selling any Brexit deal with such a small majority as there is now. A number of Conservative MPs could easily and often rebel.
''If Yvette campaigns for the leadership on a europhile plus renegotiation on FOM ticket and stuff it up the Tories, she stands a good chance of winning ''
True but the membership will never vote for Yvette Cooper, surely. They will gleefully vote in Corbyn again because they despise many labour MPs.
Many Labour members despise Parliamentary democracy. That's why they have the leader they have.
I expect JC to call a special conference to expel the MPs who voted against him.
''If Yvette campaigns for the leadership on a europhile plus renegotiation on FOM ticket and stuff it up the Tories, she stands a good chance of winning ''
True but the membership will never vote for Yvette Cooper, surely. They will gleefully vote in Corbyn again because they despise many labour MPs.
The real question I guess is whether places like Poland and RoI also switch to EFTA once we join.
You didn't take long to crater. From dreaming of a resurgent Commonwealth block to wanting to sign up to be a satellite of the EU, pronto. I can only conclude that Brexit is not turning out as you thought it would.
The two are in no way incompatible. The EFTA/EEA option is basically a free trade agreement with the EU. Dosent even req us to follow single market rules for domestic trade.
How about that 'racist' immigration policy that we would continue with? I assume you're fine with that now.
The real question I guess is whether places like Poland and RoI also switch to EFTA once we join.
Hi everyone,
One thing concerns me slightly about EFTA: the ?four? existing EFTA states all have relatively small populations. How does voting / decision making inside EFTA occur?
We are leaving an organisation where one large member (Germany) is often seen as 'bullying' other members. Would the vastly large size of the UK (even without Scotland if they gain indy) just naturally lead us to 'bully' the other EFTA members just because of our different size and economic power?
On another note: at the beginning of last year I expected politics after the GE to be boring. Thanks to the referendum and Labour it's been quite the opposite!
EFTA voting is entirely by unanimity and each country gets one vote.
Thanks.
How are you doing JJ? Hope you are still improving.
Having a good day today thanks, and my sister's been around for a few hours to look after the little 'un (she's off on a shooting trip in ?Sweden? for the day tomorrow (*)).
Sadly good days are all too infrequent atm.
(*) Before the legion of PB animal lovers get upset, no animals will get hurt.
McCluskey: “The extraordinary behaviour of Labour MPs has achieved nothing beyond diverting attention from a Tory government in crisis.
“If anyone wants to change the Labour leadership, they must do it openly and democratically through an election, not through resignations and pointless posturing. If there has to be such an election, Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters throughout the movement will be ready for it.”
Looking increasingly likely that Jezza will still be around next Wednesday for the Chilcot Report doesn't it?
Tick. Tock.
What are we expecting from the Chilcot report that will tell labour supporters what they already probably suspect? Will it have any fall out?
Blair’s former communications chief, Alastair Campbell has called on Corbyn to resign. He said people at the Momentum rally yesterday were “dedicated to destroying Labour not saving it”.
Not sure if it's been missed in the Corbyn-fest - but John Baron is putting his name forward for the Tory leadership...
I wonder if there will be a large number of candidates to effectively increase the jostling period and counteract the intention of the 1922 (seeing as you lose 2 a week, then 4 non-entities gives you another fortnight for the main players to be campaigning)
Perhaps Labour have to endure this convulsion, as they decide what they really ARE: a once-europhile social democratic party which might get 35% of the vote on a very very good day requiring SNP help to govern, or a properly hard left party which might get 20-25%, or a kind of leftwing UKIP which could get 37% and govern but which would have polices on immigration that everyone in the party detests.
Not nice choices. Maybe explains the psychosis.
But then the Tories are now entering their own breadown....
Are they? It looks like they're going to have a contest between a Remainer who was happy enough to Leave, and a Leaver who didn't want to win. Plenty of compromise about. It's unorthodox, but it's not a breakdown.
Seriously though, why won't someone in politics state the truth that the parties just don't make sense anymore - there's coalitions, but the actual Coalition was more harmonius than the Tory left and right, or Labour right and left. And neither side seems to think they can trust their own members.
Jezza has got enough support to make the final ballot (and as leader he can make the ballot anyway)
Jezza has got the party membership.
Jezza has got the Unions.
Jezza is going nowhere.
Next Wednesday I reckon he's going to stand up in the HoC and demand Tony Blair be arrested and put on trial for war crimes (he might even make a formal complaint to the Police)
@PolhomeEditor: Colleen Fletcher resigns as Labour's PPS at DEFRA. Means their DEFRA team comprises of Shadow Secretary Rachel Maskell and, er, that's it.
That's good. We needed to cut down on all these ministerial positions and their hangers on.
Jeremy Corbyn has cancelled this weekend’s National Policy Forum.
In his email to all representatives it says it is cancelled “in light of the Brexit vote. It would not be democratic to consider policy options which no longer possible given Britain’s decision to leave the EU.”
“The leadership will spend the weekend organising the Party’s response to the market volatility and the current spate of racist attacks.”
The real question I guess is whether places like Poland and RoI also switch to EFTA once we join.
You didn't take long to crater. From dreaming of a resurgent Commonwealth block to wanting to sign up to be a satellite of the EU, pronto. I can only conclude that Brexit is not turning out as you thought it would.
The two are in no way incompatible. The EFTA/EEA option is basically a free trade agreement with the EU. Dosent even req us to follow single market rules for domestic trade.
How about that 'racist' immigration policy that we would continue with? I assume you're fine with that now.
Read RCS comments. There are protections in freedom of movement, a general one if things get out of hand and also it is possible to limit welfare which would effectively stop people coming over without a high enough salary.
I realise that you think my knuckles are bleeding from dragging along the ground as I walked home from the station but as my wife is African, my Godchildren are in Australia, two of my uncles were born in India and Pakistan and respectively and my wifes uncle is Canadian, I find the direction of your comments rather amusing.
Jezza has got enough support to make the final ballot (and as leader he can make the ballot anyway)
Jezza has got the party membership.
Jezza has got the Unions.
Jezza is going nowhere.
Next Wednesday I reckon he's going to stand up in the HoC and demand Tony Blair be arrested and put on trial for war crimes (he might even make a formal complaint to the Police)
The Establishment is crumbling...
Even our schlerotic and tribal politics would surely break if Corbyn sees this out and wins against 3/4 of his MPs? How could they remain?
I guess they'll show me how, assuming Corbyn survives, which I doubt.
Oh, and perhaps as a sign of my mental infirmity at the moment, I'm seriously considering joining the LibDems. I considered joining either the Lib Dems or Conservatives after the last GE, but am now leaning heavily towards the LDs.
We need an effective opposition in England and Wales, and Labour's too busy opposing itself atm.
@paulwaugh: Interesting thought. Ministers of Crown Act 1937 gives Speaker power to choose official leader of Opposition if uncertainty over who it is.
Perhaps Labour have to endure this convulsion, as they decide what they really ARE: a once-europhile social democratic party which might get 35% of the vote on a very very good day requiring SNP help to govern, or a properly hard left party which might get 20-25%, or a kind of leftwing UKIP which could get 37% and govern but which would have polices on immigration that everyone in the party detests.
Not nice choices. Maybe explains the psychosis.
But then the Tories are now entering their own breadown....
It's never been clearer that the traditional Labour working class voters don't like their metropolitan middle class counterparts and vice versa. I just don't see how they can bring them together. If they can't it's hard to see how they can win.
I suppose they can just wait for the Tories to fall apart and win a 'who is least crap' election. Pretty thin gruel.
If we did have a split, given how tribal our politicos are, and their desire to hold onto those tribal identities, I assume we'll have the Real Labour and Continuity Labour?
Comments
That's right. Its 20% for a challenger to the incumbant not for the incumbant.
https://twitter.com/ReportUK/status/747822376419790852
No shit
Tick. Tock.
Traded a bit off this afternoon when she was at about 5s to cover the stakes on a few Next Lab Leader bets. Now into profit.
Otherwise the argument that the Leave campaign is not in government starts to look a little less solid.
How about commenting on something else just for variety?
My suspicion is that at the moments euro racial incidents are more likely to be reported as immigration is the in topic. It is probably likely that some neanderthals think they will be more likely to get away with it at the moment. Either way I have full confidence in inspector knacker to apprehend them.
What annoys me and I suspect many others is people exploiting these incidents and basically shouting that it is all my fault for daring to exercise my democratic right to vote in a way they dont like in a referendum because wanting my country to run its own affairs and not be ruled over by unelected officials in a superstate is clearly equivalent to wanting to join the hitler youth or whatever other insult is flavour of the day.
'If Yvette campaigns for the leadership on a europhile plus renegotiation on FOM ticket and stuff it up the Tories, she stands a good chance of winning'
Dream on she's a Blairite relic.
Boris Johnson 28%
In the Conservative Home survey of members
https://t.co/Q9JVCbE1cC
In fact, maybe ruling out a General Election is a way of ensuring he has time to negotiate a new Remain package.
Are you anointing JICIPM yet?
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/our-next-tory-leader-survey-finds-may-leading-johnson-by-just-ten-votes-in-well-over-a-thousand.html
Not to to be taken too literally, I think
Con +51 seats
LD +3
UKIP + 3
Green +1
SNP+1
Plaid +1
Combined Labour parties -60
The Tories would win lots of seats on 30-35% against split opposition e.g Coventry NW currently 30% Con, 40% Lab so the MP would have to retain 75% of their vote after the split to have a chance of having on.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/747826276937891840
also
Paul Mason @paulmasonnews · 2h2 hours ago London, England
Paul Mason Retweeted Channel 4 News
Well done Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage - you've turned Britain into the f***ing Weimar Republic
One of the being C. Falconer
Even more if MPs can promote more than one candidate.
The SNP have all but three of Scotland's seats, they can only go backwards, so they won't want one either.
Another way is to have a vote of no confidence where the Tories vote to have no confidence in themselves, the mantle is then passed to the opposition and if there is another vote of no confidence in them within 14 days, the speaker can call an early election, but it all seems a bit convoluted and they wont endear themselves to the voters.
They could try to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, but it would probably be delayed in the Lords.
Looking on the bright side at least we get to find out who was most out of touch with WWC,
I think Progress Lab are in for a shock but we will see.
Maybe the Members will back down
True but the membership will never vote for Yvette Cooper, surely. They will gleefully vote in Corbyn again because they despise many labour MPs.
So, people can say all they want, but it seems clear why Labour tend not to remove leaders. It is so bloody daunting.
'It is almost unbelievable to watch the Labour Party plunge into a crisis of its own making as its MPs involve themselves in childish, self-indulgent behaviour which doesn’t befit their office.'
The SNP Never goes backwards.
Any loss of vote or MPs is a continuing triumphal March in lockstep into the future.
Just don't forget the beer crate for the Boss to stand on.
do me a favour
I expect JC to call a special conference to expel the MPs who voted against him.
Sadly good days are all too infrequent atm.
(*) Before the legion of PB animal lovers get upset, no animals will get hurt.
"worst crisis since the party's formation"
I wonder if there will be a large number of candidates to effectively increase the jostling period and counteract the intention of the 1922 (seeing as you lose 2 a week, then 4 non-entities gives you another fortnight for the main players to be campaigning)
The trots are squealing that he is "the leader", so everyone must fall in line. He is wearing the hat. That is all that matters.
The MPs are taking the slightly more nuanced view that to be "the leader" it is necessary to actually lead, the hat is irrelevant.
Corbyn is incapable of leading. He will not remove the hat.
They will not reconcile these differences.
Clinton 49 .. Trump 41
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-democratic-wave-isn-t-coming-least-not-yet-n600201
Jezza has got enough support to make the final ballot (and as leader he can make the ballot anyway)
Jezza has got the party membership.
Jezza has got the Unions.
Jezza is going nowhere.
Next Wednesday I reckon he's going to stand up in the HoC and demand Tony Blair be arrested and put on trial for war crimes (he might even make a formal complaint to the Police)
The Establishment is crumbling...
*popcorn*
Boris: 25
Crabb: 16
May: 8
Looks like Crabb wanted to be up and running quickly.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/htmlview?pref=2&pli=1&sle=true#gid=0
In his email to all representatives it says it is cancelled “in light of the Brexit vote. It would not be democratic to consider policy options which no longer possible given Britain’s decision to leave the EU.”
“The leadership will spend the weekend organising the Party’s response to the market volatility and the current spate of racist attacks.”
I realise that you think my knuckles are bleeding from dragging along the ground as I walked home from the station but as my wife is African, my Godchildren are in Australia, two of my uncles were born in India and Pakistan and respectively and my wifes uncle is Canadian, I find the direction of your comments rather amusing.
I guess they'll show me how, assuming Corbyn survives, which I doubt.
We need an effective opposition in England and Wales, and Labour's too busy opposing itself atm.
I suppose they can just wait for the Tories to fall apart and win a 'who is least crap' election. Pretty thin gruel.