politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first
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Thanks. I had heard that Boris was expecting substantial backing from MPs but it wasn't clear to me where that was going to come from, bearing in mind so many MPs were (at least nominally) for Remain.Tissue_Price said:
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.MyBurningEars said:Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
I wonder to what extent the membership have a different set of priorities than MPs. And to what extent anti-Boris MPs might try to be strategic, therefore, about who they set up to play off against Boris.0 -
When I had lunch with Richard Wilson a few weeks back he told me that he rated May the highest of all of them.0
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She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to giveLowlander said:Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.0 -
I don't believe it.Charles said:When I had lunch with Richard Wilson a few weeks back he told me that he rated May the highest of all of them.
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52% of Remain voters are don't knows though....0
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You missed out a few:Chris_A said:Much is being made of how we should all accept that out won but we do not know what Leavers want. If the referendum had had 5 choices
Remain
EEA
Swiss model
Canadian model
WTO
then Remain would almost certainly have won.
Remain(corbyn model)
Remain(cameron model)
Remain(sturgeon model)
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An old flatmate of mine from university days ;-)blackburn63 said:
Your friend at the FCO?foxinsoxuk said:
From what my friend at the FCO said earlier tonight, the shitstorm has not even begun.blackburn63 said:
You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.blackburn63 said:
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.
Well we were talking of charlatans.....
You still saying the population will fall due to mass emigration?
You're an emotional wreck, have a few days off.
No, I do not expect population to fall. Immigration is only 50% of the projected population rise over the next decades, and only 50% of that is from the EU.
I have posted this a lot of times. The working age population may fall though as this was stable under ONS projections pre Brexit. Who knows what happens next.
As my source said "There is no plan"
We have a government in chaos, no-one at the helm, paliament going on its hols for the summer, and no plan.
I am glad I have a safe job and secure salary.0 -
FWIW my sister had just joined the party to vote against Boris. He's a lightweightTheScreamingEagles said:
I will consult with JohnO before I cast my vote.RobD said:
Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!TheScreamingEagles said:TM4PM
He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.
Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.0 -
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.0 -
Waste of money for her.Charles said:
FWIW my sister had just joined the party to vote against Boris. He's a lightweightTheScreamingEagles said:
I will consult with JohnO before I cast my vote.RobD said:
Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!TheScreamingEagles said:TM4PM
He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.
Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.
I think the cut off to vote was in May0 -
Ironic, as May will win.TheScreamingEagles said:
Waste of money for her.Charles said:
FWIW my sister had just joined the party to vote against Boris. He's a lightweightTheScreamingEagles said:
I will consult with JohnO before I cast my vote.RobD said:
Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!TheScreamingEagles said:TM4PM
He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.
Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.
I think the cut off to vote was in May0 -
This is quite funny. < https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747552543631282176?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0
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Whether that argument is right or wrong.Charles said:
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to giveLowlander said:Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.0 -
I am ready to be convinced by the two candidates I am presented with by MPs. I have misgivings about rewarding the naked ambition of May though, who did enough to join the Remain camp but then did nothing to help it beat Leave. I'm not sure that is the new politics that voters seem to want. It just looks like the worst kind of duplicitous naked ambition of the old politics... At least Boris eventually took a position and stuck to it, throughout.0
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In normal times this would be an absolutely extraordinary article, which would dominate political commentary for days:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-parliamentary-labour-party-plp-meeting-told-to-quit-margaret-hodge-alan-johnson_uk_5771819ee4b08d2c5639bfc0?8x31qkp8qjiz4cxr
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Is that a dig by Her Majesty at the IRA's attempts to kill her family?YellowSubmarine said:This is quite funny. < https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747552543631282176?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Epic trolling your Majesty0 -
I don't think EEA will work for Britain. I don't think we will be prepared to outsource our law making and governance to a third party we aren't a member of and over whom were have no influence even in theory. I suspect we will not be offered EEA membership by the rEU because the weak institutions require a greater degree of trust than the EU does. I don't think they trust us enough. We are not Norway.MP_SE said:Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?
Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.0 -
I genuinely have no idea of what is to follow at this uncharted point, and despite the public effort to appear on a settled course I have doubts that the other EU leaders do either.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.0 -
I spoke to Mike today, so much is happening, that we should cover on PB, that we simply don't have the time to.Richard_Nabavi said:In normal times this would be an absolutely extraordinary article, which would dominate political commentary for days:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-parliamentary-labour-party-plp-meeting-told-to-quit-margaret-hodge-alan-johnson_uk_5771819ee4b08d2c5639bfc0?8x31qkp8qjiz4cxr
We really should be covering the US Presidential race and the horrific polling for Trump.
For the time being we're moving to five threads a day, not the usual three.0 -
This.SeanT said:It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
It's the path of least resistance if only the British political class can find a way to sell it to the voters.0 -
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Well the Union was backed by 55.3% and they are the only unionist party. Tories don't need luck with numbers like that.Lowlander said:
Whether that argument is right or wrong.Charles said:
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to giveLowlander said:Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
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It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'0 -
Indeed. Both current and historical evidence suggests that when people have had enough of boring run-of-the-mill charlatan politicians, they generally turn to out-and-out through-and-through charlatans.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.blackburn63 said:
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.0 -
But Theresa is intriguingly positioned to out-Brexit Boris, isn't she? By insisting something is done on immigration.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think it will be decided on Leave v Remain - that decision has been taken - but on credibility in sorting out the mess. Theresa May clearly has the advantage of being competent, reliable and solid, Boris has the advantage of having seized the political initiative which gives him a quasi-mandate. But I think his advantage in that respect has a limited lifetime and could go into reverse.Tissue_Price said:
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.MyBurningEars said:Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
I understand the temptation of going for straight EEA - it's easy. Though it would be a massive betrayal of a huge chunk of the Leave vote, the hit from that would fall disproportionately on Labour (who do have it coming).
However I personally don't think that that would be a tenable response to a vote that has finally engaged the "they're all the same" cynics: to ignore their central [valid] concern would only confirm their worst suspicions of the political process as a whole. Something (not necessarily that much) has to be done on freedom of movement, given the campaign we've just had.0 -
Apparently Jez has seen browsing at IKEA looking for a new cabinet....0
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When will you push the "red" button. Article 50 = The China Syndrome!TheScreamingEagles said:It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'0 -
Labour looking at ' Reverse Greenland '
http://gu.com/p/4mnxg?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
And if only the EU was willing or able to offer it up. Only then could our political class attempt to sell it to us.williamglenn said:
This.SeanT said:It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
It's the path of least resistance if only the British political class can find a way to sell it to the voters.
There are probably less backers of the Union than that now.geoffw said:
Well the Union was backed by 55.3% and they are the only unionist party. Tories don't need luck with numbers like that.Lowlander said:
Whether that argument is right or wrong.Charles said:
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to giveLowlander said:Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.0 -
Boris was the early favourite, he just lasted about 1 day!Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Is it still possible to join Labour for £3 and get a vote in the leadership election?0
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Article 50 has become the unwanted prize in a high-stakes bout of pass the parcel.TheScreamingEagles said:It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'0 -
YupTissue_Price said:
But Theresa is intriguingly positioned to out-Brexit Boris, isn't she? By insisting something is done on immigration.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think it will be decided on Leave v Remain - that decision has been taken - but on credibility in sorting out the mess. Theresa May clearly has the advantage of being competent, reliable and solid, Boris has the advantage of having seized the political initiative which gives him a quasi-mandate. But I think his advantage in that respect has a limited lifetime and could go into reverse.Tissue_Price said:
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.MyBurningEars said:Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.
I understand the temptation of going for straight EEA - it's easy. Though it would be a massive betrayal of a huge chunk of the Leave vote, the hit from that would fall disproportionately on Labour (who do have it coming).
However I personally don't think that that would be a tenable response to a vote that has finally engaged the "they're all the same" cynics: to ignore their central [valid] concern would only confirm their worst suspicions of the political process as a whole. Something (not necessarily that much) has to be done on freedom of movement, given the campaign we've just had.
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Times have changed.geoffw said:
Well the Union was backed by 55.3% and they are the only unionist party. Tories don't need luck with numbers like that.Lowlander said:
Whether that argument is right or wrong.Charles said:
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to giveLowlander said:Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
There might even be an electoral arrangement if the other parties commit.0 -
"I do not intend to trigger article 50 before we have the outline of a deal with the EU. The Article was written by the EU to favour the EU. However, if the EU will not negotiate with us prior to Article 50, I shall seek to conclude contingent free trade deals with friendly nations such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand before invoking Article 50."TheScreamingEagles said:It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'0 -
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While a few leaders, like Poland's President, will listen, Juncker, Tusk, Hollande etc could not care less. The best we can hope for is an EFTA dealRealBritain said:
I genuinely have no idea of what is to follow at this uncharted point, and despite the public effort to appear on a settled course I have doubts that the other EU leaders do either.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.0 -
He'll probably start appointing the people who write letters to him.Moses_ said:Apparently Jez has seen browsing at IKEA looking for a new cabinet....
"Rosie from Coventry has some excellent ideas on solving the crisis in Gaza so I've asked her to be Shadow Foreign Secretary."0 -
Sounds like the field will be free to hoover up the votes with everyone splitting the vote on the other sideLowlander said:
Whether that argument is right or wrong.Charles said:
She can't get a full mandate from them, it's not in their power to giveLowlander said:Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
In a few months there will be a general election. SNP, Greens, Labour and Liberals could well be pro-Indy. Good luck Tories getting much more than your 1 seat.
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And Gibraltar also looking at ' Reverse Greenland ' http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-366397700
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You gotta love the Queen - this photobombing shows she has an enormous sense of mischief.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that a dig by Her Majesty at the IRA's attempts to kill her family?YellowSubmarine said:This is quite funny. < https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747552543631282176?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Epic trolling your Majesty
https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/ad_141401982.jpg0 -
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION0 -
It looks like neither the Foreign Secretary nor the Chancellor will succeed the PM.
Some of us were predicting that for ages.0 -
I think it's probably just an acknowledgement that she's 90.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that a dig by Her Majesty at the IRA's attempts to kill her family?YellowSubmarine said:This is quite funny. < https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747552543631282176?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Epic trolling your Majesty
My 90 year old grandmother tells me that the very first thing she thinks when she wakes up in the morning is: "I'm still alive then" LOL!
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The Conservative leadership race is going to be dominated by issues much more than personalities to an unusual extent. That may well help Theresa May, and Andrea Leadsom if she runs.
Labour, which really needs a post-Brexit position as a matter of some urgency, doesn't even seem to have a mechanism to discuss the key policy questions, being engulfed in a morass or personality politics.0 -
You can see Theresa May looking authoritative with that answerTissue_Price said:
"I do not intend to trigger article 50 before we have the outline of a deal with the EU. The Article was written by the EU to favour the EU. However, if the EU will not negotiate with us prior to Article 50, I shall seek to conclude contingent free trade deals with friendly nations such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand before invoking Article 50."TheScreamingEagles said:It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'0 -
Did Chris Grayling on Newsnight really say "Parliament is ultimately Sovereign" ?
Take Back Control0 -
Nice man, have lunch with him every year or so. You can literally watch him carefully weighing every word as the is at least 3 remarks ahead of you in the conversationLowlander said:0 -
And crippling fear of losing any influence when a split or new party falls. No one wants to be the first to try that.williamglenn said:Perhaps the only thing preventing mass defections/splits is that MPs in both parties want to play a part in the respective leadership elections.
I'm not trying to make any point, I was commenting on the frequent complaints we've seen about this petition being a fraud, as with that amount of numbers signing it it seems improbable they are all frauds.Moses_ said:
I've made my position on the futility of the petition, and that whatever the worthiness or not of a threshold for referenda there was not one in place and it is too late for Remainers now to wish there had been such a threshold, very clear, so won't belabor the point.
Perhaps you can tell me what point you were trying to make with your question, since as far as I can tell my comment was perfectly unambiguous - not all the signatures will be hacked, therefore there are a lot of signatures. Nothing but the facts.0 -
Juncker likely to be the first to go as Europe bickers...HYUFD said:
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION0 -
After an evening of ritual humiliation in the pub, otherwise known as watching England, back to find May is edging towards favourite. Go girl!0
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Just watched the yesterdays Game of Thrones. Priti Patel would be have been super as Arya Stark. :-)0
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He certainly is as obstinate as everMortimer said:
Juncker likely to be the first to go as Europe bickers...HYUFD said:
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION0 -
Sovereign? Calling Lammey...Scott_P said:Did Chris Grayling on Newsnight really say "Parliament is ultimately Sovereign" ?
Take Back Control0 -
Nope. Of course confidence has reduced, we're past the realm of predictions and into gritty reality. Confidence can return once everyone in power gets a grip.RealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
Until 2020? If he can get a deal which works out for most Tory Leavers and Remainers, as a compromise, no need to try to force a GE.Chris_A said:So Boris is our next PM and negotiates membership of the EEA - his preferred option - which means we're out of the EU but still have lots of Poles, Latvians etc coming and going. Given that's not what the closet, and no so closet racists who voted Leave wanted, how long do you think he'll last?
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It will be May I think, she will then comfortably beat Labour, probably led by McDonnell or Watson and have a mandate to negotiateAlastairMeeks said:The Conservative leadership race is going to be dominated by issues much more than personalities to an unusual extent. That may well help Theresa May, and Andrea Leadsom if she runs.
Labour, which really needs a post-Brexit position as a matter of some urgency, doesn't even seem to have a mechanism to discuss the key policy questions, being engulfed in a morass or personality politics.0 -
I foresee some excellent squirmy answers, and hope at least one candidate will say 'Tomorrow'.TheScreamingEagles said:It just dawned on me, this leadership race is going to be dominated by one question
'When will you trigger article 50'0 -
Old front bench or errr.. New front bench? ... Hard to keep up at the moment.Richard_Nabavi said:Apparently someone called Nic Dakin has resigned from the Labour front bench.
No, I hadn't either.0 -
She'll outlive us all.GIN1138 said:
I think it's probably just an acknowledgement that she's 90.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that a dig by Her Majesty at the IRA's attempts to kill her family?YellowSubmarine said:This is quite funny. < https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/747552543631282176?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Epic trolling your Majesty
Particular with WW3 to look forward to.0 -
EU Go Girl!rottenborough said:After an evening of ritual humiliation in the pub, otherwise known as watching England, back to find May is edging towards favourite. Go girl!
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Has Priti Patel been heard from since the result?anotherDave said:Just watched the yesterdays Game of Thrones. Priti Patel would be have been super as Arya Stark. :-)
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Any compromise betrays some component of the voter coalition (and when we talk of 52% vs 48%, we are talking about two quite different voter coalitions, each surprisingly diverse!).geoffw said:EEA+ EFTA implies free movement. It would be a betrayal of the WWC voters for Brexit (though I personally wouldn't be unhappy about it). I think it would be better to begin by unilaterally removing tariffs under WTO rules, and simultaneously apply restrictions on *new* migrants while preserving rights of existing migrants, and seek similar arrangements with former EU partners wrt their immigrants from UK.
From a political point of view what matters is whether you can afford to upset those people, or at least, whether what you are getting sufficient strategic/economic/political "bang" for the your betrayal "buck". The size of the cost depends on how many people you're ticking off, how angry you're going to make them, and realistically, how likely they are to vote.
Anecdotal evidence and Ashcroft's poll suggest there were plenty of Leave voters for whom immigration was not a prime concern, and while there may be Remain voters for whom immigration was a concern but insufficient to drive their vote, so it seems likely that immigration concerns fall below the the threshold of a majority in their own right. But on pure weight of numbers, you're still looking at a fair chunk - a couple of million people who are likely to be seriously upset.
When you look at it from a Tory point of view - how likely are these people to vote, though? Are they likely to be people who only do so as a protest vote? For many in the WWC in the Labour heartlands - people who delivered the Leave victory - they are simply not "in play" for the Tories anyway, even if they do ever return to the ballot box. In Labour's safe seats it wouldn't matter even if thousands of them did turn blue! I did wonder if the Tories could try a landscape-changing "Northern Strategy" (a kind of reverse of the US Republican Southern Strategy) but I can't see that the numbers are there for them.
From a Tory electoral PoV, the maths backs dumping this portion of voters if there is even a slight reward for doing so. Since the fruit of accepting free movement of labour is likely a much better deal economically (so better chances at next GE) , it seems inevitable to me.0 -
Boris was of course right about the referendum not being just about immigration.
As one of the regular ads on this site pre-Thursday illustrated, it was also about not being governed by posh rich blokes.0 -
Which of them is worth £3 to you?AndyJS said:Is it still possible to join Labour for £3 and get a vote in the leadership election?
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I doubt Corbyn knows now...Moses_ said:
Old front bench or errr.. New front bench? ... Hard to keep up at the moment.Richard_Nabavi said:Apparently someone called Nic Dakin has resigned from the Labour front bench.
No, I hadn't either.0 -
Long enough to still be layed, or is it time to lay May then?HYUFD said:
Boris was the early favourite, he just lasted about 1 day!Sunil_Prasannan said:
I'm so confused.0 -
On a personal level I'd like an immigration system that didn't discriminate so blatantly by nationality, and while I'm not a fan of managerialism there is an obvious case for a more strategic approach. Non-English-speaking, unskilled Lithuanian or Romanian migration with unlimited numbers, while we are very strict on highly-skilled English-fluent South Africans or Indians or South Americans is not a coherent policy and for me seems uncomfortably close to racism. If we can't trust bureaucrats to evaluate complex skillsets and match them to rapidly changing requirements, we could auction work visas, perhaps supplementary to a points system.
I don't ever expect such a thing to be implemented - wasn't expecting my vote to be on the winning side of the referendum full stop! - and I accept, pragmatically, that free labour may have to form part of a post-Brexit settlement, so I wouldn't be seriously upset. I'm sure there are many other Leavers whose preferred immigration doesn't involve unlimited unskilled migration but who could stomach it, particularly if there's a more contributory approach to welfare.0 -
It's really going to be amusing if some 'sleepers' on the 'new' front bench start resigning.MarqueeMark said:
I doubt Corbyn knows now...Moses_ said:
Old front bench or errr.. New front bench? ... Hard to keep up at the moment.Richard_Nabavi said:Apparently someone called Nic Dakin has resigned from the Labour front bench.
No, I hadn't either.0 -
Blimey. No one in Labour is under 6 on BF to be next leader. The betting is all over the place.0
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I think Boris has been layed quite enough, night!kle4 said:
Long enough to still be layed, or is it time to lay May then?HYUFD said:
Boris was the early favourite, he just lasted about 1 day!Sunil_Prasannan said:
I'm so confused.0 -
On topic, Corbyn losing the support of the Mirror has to be the biggest blow, surely? Was it firmly behind him before or was it more lukewarm?0
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If there's a breakaway party Corbyn could be the Labour leader for life...rottenborough said:Blimey. No one in Labour is under 6 on BF to be next leader. The betting is all over the place.
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LOL.No_Offence_Alan said:Boris was of course right about the referendum not being just about immigration.
As one of the regular ads on this site pre-Thursday illustrated, it was also about not being governed by posh rich blokes.0 -
No. We voted to Leave. We Leave.SeanT said:
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
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As I said yesterday, I'm laying Boris like one of his many mistresses.kle4 said:
Long enough to still be layed, or is it time to lay May then?HYUFD said:
Boris was the early favourite, he just lasted about 1 day!Sunil_Prasannan said:
I'm so confused.0 -
Unless the economy and banks across the EU are genuinely about to collapse I can't see it happening myself, they gave us as much as they were willing to give, we rejected it, I think we both have to move on. We should now focus on EFTA not the EU, we might at least get something thereSeanT said:
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.HYUFD said:
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.0 -
I wish there was a breakaway party, it's only FPTP that prevents it I suppose. Corbyn seems like he'd be happier with the SWP, and plenty of others would seem better aligned in other places.alex. said:
If there's a breakaway party Corbyn could be the Labour leader for life...rottenborough said:Blimey. No one in Labour is under 6 on BF to be next leader. The betting is all over the place.
Good night0 -
For shits and giggles, Michael Fallon should say 'Boris shouldn't be PM because he'll betray the country just like the many times he betrayed his wife'0
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Any news on Corbyn filling the vacancies on his front bench? 6 outstanding at the last count, not counting the ministerial layer.0
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We voted to leave based on the situation at the time. It is possible, and not undemocratic if done by democratic means as well, to vote otherwise if the situation materially changes. But that we would indeed probably vote to leave again anyway (Scotland no interest in voting remain in large numbers again, with independence now sought, no reason to think young people will turn out this time, even more reason for Leavers to turn out, etc), is just one of many reasons it is very improbable to happen.anotherDave said:
No. We voted to Leave. We Leave.SeanT said:
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION0 -
This is war in the Labour unlike anything we have seen before. Plenty of jokes in the pub tonight about Labour== Game of Thrones.kle4 said:On topic, Corbyn losing the support of the Mirror has to be the biggest blow, surely? Was it firmly behind him before or was it more lukewarm?
Labour MPs have to go for the ending of Corybn's 'reign'. Do whatever it takes.0 -
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.SeanT said:
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.HYUFD said:
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.0 -
Betting-relevant question: if the parliamentary Labour Party breaks from the Labour Party, which one counts for the purposes of bookmakers paying out on "next leader" bets.......?kle4 said:
I wish there was a breakaway party, it's only FPTP that prevents it I suppose. Corbyn seems like he'd be happier with the SWP, and plenty of others would seem better aligned in other places.alex. said:
If there's a breakaway party Corbyn could be the Labour leader for life...rottenborough said:Blimey. No one in Labour is under 6 on BF to be next leader. The betting is all over the place.
Good night0 -
!!!williamglenn said:
Has Priti Patel been heard from since the result?anotherDave said:Just watched the yesterdays Game of Thrones. Priti Patel would be have been super as Arya Stark. :-)
You think she _is_ Arya Stark?
Cersei's in King's Landing. She must be on her way there.
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Believing pollsters is like believing England are going to win the next world cup....0
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What if they both do?MP_SE said:
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.SeanT said:
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.HYUFD said:
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.
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Today is the first day that I've felt I'm missing out by not watching/reading Game of Thrones. I've not understood scores of references in tonight's comments!0
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SeanT - but then we lose any agreements with the Australia, Canada, India, Korea, USA, New Zealand - and I am not interested in Poland and points east.0
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UKIP gain Thurrock, South Thanet, etc.alex. said:
What if they both do?MP_SE said:
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.SeanT said:
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.HYUFD said:
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.0 -
There will be a 2nd referendum. Is there a book on this?alex. said:
What if they both do?MP_SE said:
If either of the final two Tory leadership candidates propose a second referendum they will lose.SeanT said:
Juncker and Tusk, fuck them. They are irrelevant. It is still the national governments which count especially Germany, Italy, France, Poland.HYUFD said:
They won't, newsnight tonight saying Juncker, Tusk, the French etc were ready to pack our bags for us. The Poles and Germans may be a bit more sympathetic but not muchSeanT said:
Again you forget how terrified many Europeans are, especially in the south and east. The eurozone is just one more crisis away from disintegration.HYUFD said:
There will certainly be no referendum, if we stay in now the EU would steamroller us with further integration and we would be humiliatedRealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
It's not pretty, but we hold the key to non-contagion: we can bring back stability by promising not to trigger A50 - if ONLY THEY JUST CUT US SOME FUCKING SLACK ON MIGRATION
German would accommodate us (cars, geopolitics), the Poles too (all those Poles in the UK) Italy would get over it. France might be sticky, but they fear Le Pen and she trades on Brexit.
This is do-able, if the Europeans get moving and the Brits are proactive. We get a special Emergency Brake on migration. The FT was talking about it today. We go back to the people, they revote, REMAIN wins, crisis over.
For now.0 -
Which won't be until September at the earliest.kle4 said:
Nope. Of course confidence has reduced, we're past the realm of predictions and into gritty reality. Confidence can return once everyone in power gets a grip.RealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.
I'm not sure we have anywhere near that long for our poltics to fix itself.
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