politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who say that the bookies got EURef wrong don’t unders

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

Have many bookmakers stated whether or not they won overall? Shadsy implied Ladbrokes had in his piece.

GIN1138 said:

Boris has blown his chance of becoming PM this afternoon.

Good news for May?

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

JackW,

While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

I have much sympathy for them Jack. I think it's atavistic provincial lunacy.

@KayBurley: Love the new hashtag for those who regret voting Leave...
#Bridiot

SeanT said:

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

But apparently if I empathise with people like this - and I have friends and family in a similar situation - I am mewling and bleating, and should get a grip.

I don't mind the insults - I dish out far worse. It does surprise me how flinty and unfeeling some pb-ers can be. But maybe parenthood has just made me soppy.

I think it is fair to say that fatherhood changes one's worldview in a more sensitive direction Sean.

Scott_P said:

@KayBurley: Love the new hashtag for those who regret voting Leave...
#Bridiot

I'll stick with people having bremorse until it's indisputable things have gone bad and won't get better. In that case many will become bridiots.

May could well win this. EEA quick sharp with FOM and virtually unchanged from what we had already. Europhile Labour seats shoring up a euromoderate position in the HoC. Labour nasty wing sidelined for a generation.

I'll take that.

Btw, here's Ladbrokes' statement on the thread topic:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/746214367583100930

Several parents at my kids school have been told to get their houses on the market as they will be moved to another European capital within the next 18 months.

One thing the result has done is deliver a blow to the city of London

AndyJS said:

Jack Dromey has resigned.

Falconer next?

FPT, Mr. T, I do wonder if that (a General Election under those terms) may happen.

Mr. Smithson, not sure I agree. A referendum is a matter of assessing people's opinions. If the market's assessment makes one a strong favourite and the other side wins, the punters are plain wrong. Not only that, a Grand National doesn't have two horses in it. If it did, and one was 33/1 and won, then people would say the bookies got it wrong.

Mr. P, too early to say that, depends on whether Corbyn goes.

Also, Lib Dems may bounce back (especially if Labour are sunk).

@GuardianAnushka: Brussels rejects Boris Johnson 'pipe dream' over single market access - interesting piece by Jennifer Rankin https://t.co/WKW9pFvXGy

Tissue_Price said:

Btw, here's Ladbrokes' statement on the thread topic:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/746214367583100930

Thanks - deserves to be linked in the thread header I think.

''If we get Theresa May as PM, and a Norway style deal, I will consider that Britain has come away with no more than a flesh wound. ''

Only one winner out of that. Nigel Farage.

HurstLlama said:

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

JackW,

While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.

Port Talbot was an integrated plant that mostly built more than half a century ago, which produced next to no speciality steels, and which had seen no investment for 30 years. Tata Steel chose not to invest and ran it for cash, knowing that when the next steel price downturn came, it would be toast.

It had no indigenious source of coal or of iron ore nor any meaningful local customers. When the price of steel fell two-thirds, closure was inevitable.

As an aside, Port Talbot doesn't use an Arc Furnace (which would be affected by EU energy directives as they use electricity), but burned coal directly.

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.

I'm just glad I was alerted to how ridiculous the odds on Leave were on election day, managed to get on at 6-1

williamglenn said:

FPT

HurstLlama said:

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

The fact that there would be adverse consequences in the short term was well advertised and accepted (see Charles' posts on here). I see no reason to run around panicking in best Corporal Jones fashion.

Adverse economic consequences are one thing, but I have a feeling that most Leavers didn't really consider the adverse political consequences.

What adverse political consequences, Mr. Glenn? Surely not that Cameron has gone (and soon I hope his sidekick will follow him) or that Labour is falling apart. Inconvenient in that the process of government has to go on, but the summer recess is coming up and I am sure it will all be sorted by the autumn.

Scotland gearing up for Independence might be regarded as adverse by some, but it has been clear for a long time that the union is broken beyond repair. I had hoped they go in 2014. So if Scotland want to go and use the exit from the UK as a pretext then that is fine by me.

You correctly identified this as a revolution, which is so far not under any control.

There is no way of predicting where things will end up, and if we do go through with Brexit, there is no telling which forces will end up in power in whatever is left of the UK. The genie has been let out of the bottle.

You might be correct in your conclusion, Mr. Glenn. I am pleased that you agree with me that we are in the midst of a revolution.

Of course it will be a very British revolution, so I don't expect to find politicians hanging from lampposts. There may be some sharp notes to the Times and a lot of guff on the Internet, but it will work itself out. Who knows you and I might both like the end result.

Mortimer said:

kle4 said:

I'm just glad I was alerted to how ridiculous the odds on Leave were on election day, managed to get on at 6-1

Cough, 15-1.

I was at work at the period of peak mania, couldn't access any sites!

Alanbrooke said:

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.

UK banks will be in terrible trouble, because house prices are going to come down, and the UK consumer is terribly indebted.

In the long-term, this is good news. But there's a reason why Lloyds and RBS have been so hammered.

Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT, Mr. T, I do wonder if that (a General Election under those terms) may happen.

Mr. Smithson, not sure I agree. A referendum is a matter of assessing people's opinions. If the market's assessment makes one a strong favourite and the other side wins, the punters are plain wrong. Not only that, a Grand National doesn't have two horses in it. If it did, and one was 33/1 and won, then people would say the bookies got it wrong.

Mr. P, too early to say that, depends on whether Corbyn goes.

Also, Lib Dems may bounce back (especially if Labour are sunk).

The bookies will get the 33/1 horse race wrong approximately one in thirty three times.

kle4 said:

MikeK said:

Oh, this is pathetic! I can see that the class of 2016 would have surrendered in 1940. What wallies. I am truly ashamed of some of the moaning on PB today.

The situations are in no way applicable and so the suggestion the reactions would be different is utter nonsense speculation. People going back to that sort of line is worse then calling on the spirit of thatcher, it's fatuous, crass bollocks.

People could stand to toughen up, to be firmer, but it's a godsdamned political blog not a war, people are not shaming themselves or their generation by reacting pseudonymously in a less than admirable fashion.

This EU campaign is getting to me, that's twice I've snapped at people. But would a 1940s man have done do more than twice? That's the question, apparently.

Honestly, I like you mikeK, but that remark was utter nonsense.

A significant part of the Tory pary WAS for giving up in 1940!

JonCisBack said:

To me it smacks of everything the Remain campaign was all along - smug, patronising and arrogant.

...and completely accurate.

What's the Brexiteer phrase? Oh, yes,

Suck it up, whiner...

Scott_P said:

Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

Sometimes, I think he's just the world's greatest troll

SeanT said:

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

But apparently if I empathise with people like this - and I have friends and family in a similar situation - I am mewling and bleating, and should get a grip.

I don't mind the insults - I dish out far worse. It does surprise me how flinty and unfeeling some pb-ers can be. But maybe parenthood has just made me soppy.

Not at all Sean.

You were perfectly entitled to your position that you robustly defended, despite the odd wobble and have no reason whatsoever to rebuke yourself. My point was simply that at times we forget that in the heat of battle normal folk and their lives are often forgotten amid the welter of claim and counter claim.

The head of this family firm, who I have known since he was a new born, was in tears as he recounted to me the scenes as he explained to his long serving staff their desperate situation. It was traumatic.

Scott_P said:

Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

Another failure of leadership.

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

seems to me Jack they've made the wrong decision. UK banks will be in better shape than overseas banks, the EU economy is fragile and if SO is correct the currency currently means his sterling margins are ridiculously fat.

UK banks will be in terrible trouble, because house prices are going to come down, and the UK consumer is terribly indebted.

In the long-term, this is good news. But there's a reason why Lloyds and RBS have been so hammered.

I didnt say UK banks were all in good shape Robert, but that banking wise things on the Continent appear worse. I can't think of a Continental country which doesnt have its own big fat version of RBS and its twin brother.

matt said:

@ a variety of posters. WW2 ended 70 years ago. It's if no relevance.

yes

GIN1138 said:

Osborne looks like he's spent the weekend with a bottle of Scotch.

Looks completely destroyed...

Good, shame no one gave him the revolver to go with it. After his threaten budget speech, to say nothing of his performance over the last six years, so he should.

"March of the makers", "Rebalance the economy", remember those?

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

JackW,

While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.

Port Talbot was an integrated plant that mostly built more than half a century ago, which produced next to no speciality steels, and which had seen no investment for 30 years. Tata Steel chose not to invest and ran it for cash, knowing that when the next steel price downturn came, it would be toast.

It had no indigenious source of coal or of iron ore nor any meaningful local customers. When the price of steel fell two-thirds, closure was inevitable.

As an aside, Port Talbot doesn't use an Arc Furnace (which would be affected by EU energy directives as they use electricity), but burned coal directly.

Lol, no need for experts showing off their fancy learning.

Scott_P said:

JonCisBack said:

To me it smacks of everything the Remain campaign was all along - smug, patronising and arrogant.

...and completely accurate.

What's the Brexiteer phrase? Oh, yes,

Suck it up, whiner...

I think you meant "suck it up, winner...."

''That's fascinating -for its hints that we won't push the button. ''

You could see this as a game of poker, now. Maybe it always was.

rcs1000 said:

MyBurningEars said:

For those curious about The Petition, here's an interesting link about how easily faked it is.

Oh, and here's a Python script for automated signing. Wonder if rcs is inadvertently responsible for a million signatures...

That's some ugly code. No way I am responsible.

Wasn't blaming you for that Apparently there are some Youtube videos explaining how to use it, though I haven't found them. Wondered if they made any use of PythonAnywhere.

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

JackW,

While I am always sympathetic to those that lose their jobs may I just point out that 120,000 jobs have disappeared from the oil industry and no one appeared to give a shit. Then there are the steel jobs that went, not least because of EU energy directives, and again no one cared a jot.

Port Talbot was an integrated plant that mostly built more than half a century ago, which produced next to no speciality steels, and which had seen no investment for 30 years. Tata Steel chose not to invest and ran it for cash, knowing that when the next steel price downturn came, it would be toast.

It had no indigenious source of coal or of iron ore nor any meaningful local customers. When the price of steel fell two-thirds, closure was inevitable.

As an aside, Port Talbot doesn't use an Arc Furnace (which would be affected by EU energy directives as they use electricity), but burned coal directly.

Did I mention Port Talbot? Redcar closed as well didn't it?

However that is to miss the point of my original post. Jobs are lost all the time and no one gives a shit. JackW knows some people who have lost out on EU trade, very sorry for the people concerned but I didn't see JackW talking about the jobs that have been lost the other way, or globalization generally.

JackW said:

Good Afternoon Fellow Shadow Cabinet Hopefuls.

On a far more serious note fellow PBers may recall that several months ago I advised that a small company my family had personal but not financial associations with for decades was struggling with retaining and bidding for contracts from European firms because of uncertainty caused by the referendum. Investment and job security was at stake including two new apprenticeships and the possibility of an exit from the UK was being researched.

I regret to say that uncertainty and the BREXIT vote will result in all bar four staff of the firm losing their jobs. The company is executing its plan to move within the EU.

Real people with mortgages and families to support and now with real redundancies to contend with.

I'm really sorry to hear this.

taffys said:

''Farage and UKIP cannot win a GE. They cannot get over 25% of the vote. They're just too toxic for too many.''

I wonder how many of the 17 million brexiteers would see keeping free movement as the ultimate betrayal of what they voted for.

5 million? 8? 10?

if 17% said migration was their main motive Id go for 3.5-4 million

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

Jobabob said:

May could well win this. EEA quick sharp with FOM and virtually unchanged from what we had already. Europhile Labour seats shoring up a euromoderate position in the HoC. Labour nasty wing sidelined for a generation.

I'll take that.

Also know as PM Nigel Farage at the next election.

Farage cannot win a GE. No way.

What would happen in that situation is you'd get a Chirac versus Le Pen scenario, where the centre left and maybe hard left would reluctantly side with the centre right, to prevent the UKIP right doing any business.

An ironically European turn-out. Happens all the time across the continent.

If I get time I'm going to run the numbers on GE15 and look at thr UKIP second places and see how close they are and what kind of swing they need, especially in leave voting Tory seats.

Utterly off-topic but wonder if Snowden is regretting choosing Russia for his bolthole. Turns out Russia is not the best place in the world if you dislike mass surveillance, after all! Wonder if he is about to discover the limits of freedom of speech there...

HurstLlama, Toms and Alanbrooke.

I'm not trying to make a debating point simply to note that knowing people who are so significantly and negatively hit by the BREXIT gives one pause for thought.

The decision is made and for good or ill the nation and individuals will have to come to terms with it.

If the tories settle on EEA then Boris needs to be the PM, so that they can say they are being led by a leaver and he is enacting leavers wishes (even if he's not in reality). If it's May, the cry that she is a remainer so leave are having the referendum result ignored will play into UKIP hands. (I would personally prefer May however)

We need a "we've always been at war with eastasia" approach here - tories, labour europhiles, and remainers generally need to forget the fact that the campaign was immigration led. Going on about the backtracking helps no-one but Farage who can cry betrayal.

SeanT said:

Alistair said:

Jobabob said:

May could well win this. EEA quick sharp with FOM and virtually unchanged from what we had already. Europhile Labour seats shoring up a euromoderate position in the HoC. Labour nasty wing sidelined for a generation.

I'll take that.

Also know as PM Nigel Farage at the next election.

Farage cannot win a GE. No way.

What would happen in that situation is you'd get a Chirac versus Le Pen scenario, where the centre left and maybe hard left would reluctantly side with the centre right, to prevent the UKIP right doing any business.

An ironically European turn-out. Happens all the time across the continent.

Tory remainers switch to lib dem
Labour leavers vote ukip
Tory leavers vote tory or ukip

Tory UKIP coalition with Farage DPM more than a 33-1 chance!

Scott_P said:

Corbyn not attending PLP, going to Momentum rally instead

How disrespectful – If there are any Labour MPs left, they should resign in protest.