If Corbyn is replaced then one thing is certain - all the talk on here of the Tories no-confidencing themselves to force a GE is for the birds.
And this is another reason the idea a snap GE might happen and elect a 'stay in' set of parties is not going to happen - it will require Tories to force an early election, they aren't going to back that, not now, and certainly not if Labour look more formidible.
Is anyone offering odds on Boris being next prime minister, by the end of June 2016.
I don't think Cameron is going to have any choice other than to withdraw his resignation or go and see the HM Queen and ask her to get someone else to form a government the way things are going.
If Corbyn is replaced then one thing is certain - all the talk on here of the Tories no-confidencing themselves to force a GE is for the birds.
And this is another reason the idea a snap GE might happen and elect a 'stay in' set of parties is not going to happen - it will require Tories to force an early election, they aren't going to back that, not now, and certainly not if Labour look more formidible.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
It's not a well thought out policy on a number of levels. First, the fact is LEAVE won and 30% of 2015 LD voters (including me) backed LEAVE.
It's now up to all sides to make this work - ideally by arguing for the EFTA option and supporting those who agree. Immigration is a subject on which we need to have a national debate - let's not beat round the bush - it is a big subject, a lot of people don't like the way the issue has been suppressed. I see it up close and personal in my part of London every day - it's not wholly positive and we need to be honest about the socio-economic downsides.
There's also the not unreasonable point we won't be able to rejoin on the terms we "enjoyed" - the opt outs and the rebates will be gone. We will have to pay up, suck up the Euro and probably Schengen and a raft of other things (I don't actually think that would be the case).
Liberal-minded people pride themselves on their tolerance but you can't force people to tolerate everything in the same of some nebulous concept called freedom of movement. REMAIN treated everyone as an economic drone - work hard, enjoy 1.5% extra GDP growth a year (not that you'll see any of it) and above all don't think too much about how your community is changing, your local services are creaking under the strain and the place you call home is somewhere you don't recognise.
Apparently having those kind of concerns makes you a racist - if that's true, I'm a racist.
As an LD, albeit a Remainer, I share concern regarding this as a policy. It is far too early to write such a manifesto pledge. Far better to work for an EEA/EFTA style deal that is as near a facsimile of membership as possible.
I guess it depends on whether we think Farron was trying to answer "what's LibDem policy on the EU?" or "how on earth do I get a mention in the media with both the other parties in self-destruct mode?"
Shit has just become real for the swivel eyed loons.
hmmm
it still hasnt occurred to you that pontless name calling probably cost Remain this referendum ?
next time try charming the electorate.
The swivel eyed loons are curiously absent now. Apart from backtracking on the NHS funding and saying that immigration will not go down.
There werent enough swivel eyed loons to win it. It was ordinary people fed up with politcs that won the vote for out. Those are the people Remain didnt engage with and the name calling simply added to the view of an establishment which had no intention of listening.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
Er I and many other people will riot if they keep us in the E.U since democracy didn't work.
Exactly, chaos would ensue! Many have said part of the reason people voted leave was because they were ignored by political class - ignoring them again would probably lead to civil unrest on an unprecedented scale.
A "remain in EU" alliance could not claim that their mandate trumped the referendum's mandate. They would have stood on platforms covering a huge swathe of public policy, and many voters would have supported them for reasons other than remaining in the EU.
There is precedent for making a UK General Election a single issue election (albeit in the days before referendums were ever considered an option). However I think in reality it would need another referendum to overturn the referendum.
Depressing reports of a surge in immigrants and non-White Britons being hassled in the street post the Brexit vote. Some people clear thought Brexit = all foreigners leave.
Us Leavers were anticipating the fallout on here in the unlikely event of Leave but its even better than I expected. Foxinsox, Meeks et al are absolutely hilarious with their bedwetting wailing.
I'm hoping they can keep it up for a while, too often this place is moribund and dull.
A start discussion button has appeared at the top of the page on vanillaforums in desktop mode.
Clicking on it adds a discussion which is then visible on vanilla after I log out.
Looks like a system error.
Discussion is labelled as Test.
Assume you will want to remove this and sort the system issue?
Thanks Paul: I think this is a Vanilla bug but will check
I did think of starting a thread with something absolutely outrageous that would get everyone over excited and bouncing up and down then think 5 minutes later, hang on, this has got to be a wind up.
But alas in the current climate I couldn't think of anything that would trigger the second reaction
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
Er I and many other people will riot if they keep us in the E.U since democracy didn't work.
Exactly, chaos would ensue! Many have said part of the reason people voted leave was because they were ignored by political class - ignoring them again would probably lead to civil unrest on an unprecedented scale.
A "remain in EU" alliance could not claim that their mandate trumped the referendum's mandate. They would have stood on platforms covering a huge swathe of public policy, and many voters would have supported them for reasons other than remaining in the EU.
That would be like complaining you were upset a vote for UKIP then meant UKIP supported leaving the EU, if the parties stood on that basis.
I don't think any such thing will happen, as I've explained, and I've no doubt a great many people would be just as outraged as described, but it is simply not true that a democratic endorsement of a position overturning a previous democratic endorsement of a position would not have a mandate. If that is the issue which is key for people, they would have to decide if Labour (for the sake of argument) policy on education was more important than their (theorised) position on staying in the EU. If people decided it was, they cannot credibly complain it was not what they voted for - yes, not everyone will support everything in a manifesto, but that doesn't mean a party has no mandate for its manifesto, which is what you're arguing, since we have no way of knowing which bits people like and which bits they don't/
Is anyone offering odds on Boris being next prime minister, by the end of June 2016.
I don't think Cameron is going to have any choice other than to withdraw his resignation or go and see the HM Queen and ask her to get someone else to form a government the way things are going.
The Cabinet Manual says he can't resign until he can recommend his successor to HM. Though your point is valid. Perhaps the Tories will just have to scrap the all member ballot and let MP's decide alone. It would be much quicker.
If Britain stays in the EU either because of a vote to do so (unlikely) or because they never quite get round to leaving (also unlikely) it will be because people who voted Leave changed those minds.
I assume the Lib Dem pitch is that they are PRO the EU and are outward looking and will always aim to have the deepest possible relationship rather than necessarily rerun the referendum. But I don't know if this is the case.
If the EU made a new offer I could see the possibility of staying in. But since Dave has flounced off and the french want us out that is unlikely.
The EU have shown no sign of making an offer to the UK that doesn't involve the UK leaving the EU first.
Just suppose.... by October the economy has tanked, Leave's promises have continued to completely unravel and a YouGov poll shows that 60-70% of people think voting to leave the EU was a mistake and a GE should be held.
Is anyone offering odds on Boris being next prime minister, by the end of June 2016.
I don't think Cameron is going to have any choice other than to withdraw his resignation or go and see the HM Queen and ask her to get someone else to form a government the way things are going.
The Cabinet Manual says he can't resign until he can recommend his successor to HM. Though your point is valid. Perhaps the Tories will just have to scrap the all member ballot and let MP's decide alone. It would be much quicker.
They did much the same when IDS was defenestrated.
Shit has just become real for the swivel eyed loons.
hmmm
it still hasnt occurred to you that pontless name calling probably cost Remain this referendum ?
next time try charming the electorate.
The swivel eyed loons are curiously absent now. Apart from backtracking on the NHS funding and saying that immigration will not go down.
There werent enough swivel eyed loons to win it. It was ordinary people fed up with politcs that won the vote for out. Those are the people Remain didnt engage with and the name calling simply added to the view of an establishment which had no intention of listening.
The voters are not swivel eyed loons. The correct habitat to find a loon is the backbenches of the Conservative party.
That was my point - I know it's not mandatory, but there's no viable route to an anti-Brexit group winning a GE anyway. Even if they felt they could justify calling one, which parties are going to stand on a basis of ignoring the referendum?
Con - No LD - Looks like it Lab - No, too divided Greens - Possibly PC - who cares DUP - No UUP - IDK, probably not SDLP - No UKIP - No SNP and SF - why would they, they think this will get them what they want
Unless we literally descend into anarchy, public opinion won't change quickly enough for an anti-Brexit party to win a GE before article 50 is declared, and after it is the question becomes rejoining not 'not leaving' which is a less attractive option.
I would question the mandate of a "stay in the EU" coalition. A general election is not a referendum on a particular issue, it is a vote on a broad programme of government. You cannot reasonably assume that every single one of your voters has supported every plank of your policy programme.
The neverendum scenario is preferable to the quagmire this would create.
By that logic no Governemnt should implement any policy, without a referendum first, ever.
A more succinct summary of what I was saying.
Quite - there's all sorts of reason such a scenario will not happen, but to call in to question it's legitimacy is nonsense, for just that reason.
Shit has just become real for the swivel eyed loons.
hmmm
it still hasnt occurred to you that pontless name calling probably cost Remain this referendum ?
next time try charming the electorate.
The swivel eyed loons are curiously absent now. Apart from backtracking on the NHS funding and saying that immigration will not go down.
There werent enough swivel eyed loons to win it. It was ordinary people fed up with politcs that won the vote for out. Those are the people Remain didnt engage with and the name calling simply added to the view of an establishment which had no intention of listening.
The voters are not swivel eyed loons. The correct habitat to find a loon is the backbenches of the Conservative party.
OT. The EU faces a further possible crisis today as Spain holds its second General Election in 6 months. If Podemos wins (not likely but possible) then there will be yet another insurgent party challenging the direction of the EU (whilst wanting to stay in) like that in Greece.
''Laugh out loud if you must but the only person seems to be Ed Milliband - he is a giant compared to Corbyn.''
Doncaster was one of the most Brexity seats, the notion of a pro EU ed even retaining his seat is, I think, at least debatable.
The vote showed the old certainties are gone.
I wonder how much this taste of revolution will stick at the next GE - whenever that is? Discovering that your vote can really change stuff after all...
Just suppose.... by October the economy has tanked, Leave's promises have continued to completely unravel and a YouGov poll shows that 60-70% of people think voting to leave the EU was a mistake and a GE should be held.
Expect sterling and the markets to fall this week.
It's the uncertainty that's going to be the driver. The experts will be proven right as the cost of living soars, holiday money diminishes and the number of foreigners increase.
The combination of xenophobia, economic hardship and deceit is a very nasty cocktail. Boris and co will be fully responsible for this.
Shit has just become real for the swivel eyed loons.
hmmm
it still hasnt occurred to you that pontless name calling probably cost Remain this referendum ?
next time try charming the electorate.
The swivel eyed loons are curiously absent now. Apart from backtracking on the NHS funding and saying that immigration will not go down.
There werent enough swivel eyed loons to win it. It was ordinary people fed up with politcs that won the vote for out. Those are the people Remain didnt engage with and the name calling simply added to the view of an establishment which had no intention of listening.
The voters are not swivel eyed loons. The correct habitat to find a loon is the backbenches of the Conservative party.
Andrew Rawnsley nicely articulates what many of us have been saying:
It will be a formidable challenge for Britain’s next prime minister to make an economic, diplomatic and political success out of Brexit. Or, to set the bar at a more realistic level, to contain the damage. Nigel Farage, empowered by this result, will be breathing down the neck of the next occupant of Number 10 and itching to denounce anything less than total divorce as a betrayal. The talks with EU leaders will require seriousness, finesse, diplomacy and a capacity for building trusting relationships, not qualities usually associated with Mr Johnson. It will also require flexibility, which is more his forte.
[...]
As the old saying goes: they broke it, now the Brexiters own it. Which may explain why, as mournful as David Cameron was in defeat, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove looked even grimmer in victory.
Depressing reports of a surge in immigrants and non-White Britons being hassled in the street post the Brexit vote. Some people clear thought Brexit = all foreigners leave.
Yes, I've heard that too from friends in Birmingham. Nothing yet in London but we are in dangerous times.
Something the PB Guidos / Breibarts simply would not understand.
The problems are overblown. There will be no hard border between Scotland and England just as there won't be between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Only EU insistence on Schengen would arrive at that and the EU shall not do that. The currency issue is now clarified in favour of a sterlingisation followed by a Scottish pound. Euro membership is not only not compulsary it is impossible as it requires two years of membership of the ERM which is a voluntary decision eg Sweden.
Sturgeon is clearly the only leader capable of leading in the UK at present - She is likely to prevail.
I'm assuming any new leader process runs under the same rules that brought Willie Nelson's urban UK cousin into position.
If so, why would they decide anyone other than a hard left candidate?
It's not about left or right. It's about competence. Corbyn has shown he is not up to the job.
MPs care about competence. The question is how much priority do the members and supporters give it?
Not much, any more. Why else would Labour elect Corbyn and the Tories be gagging to elect BoJo?
It is not one Party (let alone any individual) that has failed. It is all of them. Which is to say that representative democracy itself is an idea whose time has gone.
If Britain stays in the EU either because of a vote to do so (unlikely) or because they never quite get round to leaving (also unlikely) it will be because people who voted Leave changed those minds.
I assume the Lib Dem pitch is that they are PRO the EU and are outward looking and will always aim to have the deepest possible relationship rather than necessarily rerun the referendum. But I don't know if this is the case.
If the EU made a new offer I could see the possibility of staying in. But since Dave has flounced off and the french want us out that is unlikely.
The EU have shown no sign of making an offer to the UK that doesn't involve the UK leaving the EU first.
precisely and to go back in as a new member would be unsellable.
There really is a concerted effort to overturn this referendum result - disgusting but not unexpected. It will backfire - a second referendum will result in an even bigger Leave margin, and a GE held on the EU issue would be suicide for Labour in particular.
ITS NOT FAIR SO IM GOING TO STAMP MY FEET AND SCWEAM AND SCWEAM AND SCWEAM
Just suppose.... by October the economy has tanked, Leave's promises have continued to completely unravel and a YouGov poll shows that 60-70% of people think voting to leave the EU was a mistake and a GE should be held.
I think an election will be well before 2020.
Sorry, I should have added: will the new PM hold off triggering article 50 in such circumstances?
Leavers have a real problem with the promises they made in the campaign. If the Tories are wise, they should find someone else to lead them who can offer a fresh start.
Expect sterling and the markets to fall this week.
It's the uncertainty that's going to be the driver. The experts will be proven right as the cost of living soars, holiday money diminishes and the number of foreigners increase.
The combination of xenophobia, economic hardship and deceit is a very nasty cocktail. Boris and co will be fully responsible for this.
Us Leavers were anticipating the fallout on here in the unlikely event of Leave but its even better than I expected. Foxinsox, Meeks et al are absolutely hilarious with their bedwetting wailing.
I'm hoping they can keep it up for a while, too often this place is moribund and dull.
I am not wailing, and my bed is dry!
I am enjoying the self destruction of the Conservative party live on TV, and hopeful for Jezza to be defenestrated in favour of someone who can capitalise on it all.
If Britain stays in the EU either because of a vote to do so (unlikely) or because they never quite get round to leaving (also unlikely) it will be because people who voted Leave changed those minds.
I assume the Lib Dem pitch is that they are PRO the EU and are outward looking and will always aim to have the deepest possible relationship rather than necessarily rerun the referendum. But I don't know if this is the case.
If the EU made a new offer I could see the possibility of staying in. But since Dave has flounced off and the french want us out that is unlikely.
The EU have shown no sign of making an offer to the UK that doesn't involve the UK leaving the EU first.
They can't - every country would vote to leave, in the certain knowledge they'd get a tasty prize afterwards to stay in.
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
The LDs, Greens, Labour, SNP would all be 'pro-EU'.
They'd be focussing the Leave vote on Con/UKIP. I'd guess Conservative landslide.
People need to realise that 'pro-EU' has just changed it's meaning from 'Remain' to 'Join'. That is a very significant mental shift.
Well, that still currently depends on whether someone is intending to stop the leaving, somehow, as that is still technically possible though very hard to see a path to it, or if they are intending to cleave as close to the EU as possible afterwards, or, yes, if they are intending us to rejoin at some point.
Rejoining would be a significant difference from remaining, if they even accepted us back, no certainty, we'd have to sign up to everything.
It's hard choice for the LDs and others. Immediate anger and shock means there will be some votes in pledging to prevent us from leaving, but given the democratic mandate really needs another democratic mandate to be overturned with as little chaos as possible (which would still be a lot), and there's no realistic route to that, they need a pitch for assuming we are indeed leaving. And that means either 'rejoin' or 'remain close to'.
If there's another Scottish Indyref, and if bits of Scotland - say the residents of an Edinburgh street have voted to stay then surely the SNPs logic means that they should be allowed to have their own little referendum to stay in the UK.
It seems many people have forgotten what a democracy is.
Andrew Rawnsley nicely articulates what many of us have been saying:
It will be a formidable challenge for Britain’s next prime minister to make an economic, diplomatic and political success out of Brexit. Or, to set the bar at a more realistic level, to contain the damage. Nigel Farage, empowered by this result, will be breathing down the neck of the next occupant of Number 10 and itching to denounce anything less than total divorce as a betrayal. The talks with EU leaders will require seriousness, finesse, diplomacy and a capacity for building trusting relationships, not qualities usually associated with Mr Johnson. It will also require flexibility, which is more his forte.
[...]
As the old saying goes: they broke it, now the Brexiters own it. Which may explain why, as mournful as David Cameron was in defeat, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove looked even grimmer in victory.
Andrew Rawnsley nicely articulates what many of us have been saying:
It will be a formidable challenge for Britain’s next prime minister to make an economic, diplomatic and political success out of Brexit. Or, to set the bar at a more realistic level, to contain the damage. Nigel Farage, empowered by this result, will be breathing down the neck of the next occupant of Number 10 and itching to denounce anything less than total divorce as a betrayal. The talks with EU leaders will require seriousness, finesse, diplomacy and a capacity for building trusting relationships, not qualities usually associated with Mr Johnson. It will also require flexibility, which is more his forte.
[...]
As the old saying goes: they broke it, now the Brexiters own it. Which may explain why, as mournful as David Cameron was in defeat, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove looked even grimmer in victory.
''Laugh out loud if you must but the only person seems to be Ed Milliband - he is a giant compared to Corbyn.''
Doncaster was one of the most Brexity seats, the notion of a pro EU ed even retaining his seat is, I think, at least debatable.
The vote showed the old certainties are gone.
I wonder how much this taste of revolution will stick at the next GE - whenever that is? Discovering that your vote can really change stuff after all...
It certainly stuck in Scotland.
I wonder if the two main parties will collapse and be replaced with the two parties that fought the referendum. Has this already happened defacto?
OT. The EU faces a further possible crisis today as Spain holds its second General Election in 6 months. If Podemos wins (not likely but possible) then there will be yet another insurgent party challenging the direction of the EU (whilst wanting to stay in) like that in Greece.
If there's another Scottish Indyref, and if bits of Scotland - say the residents of an Edinburgh street have voted to stay then surely the SNPs logic means that they should be allowed to have their own little referendum to stay in the UK.
It seems many people have forgotten what a democracy is.
Nutter
Nuts in what way? Happy for you to enlighten me if there's a glaring error here.
This coup against Corbyn will give the ones who signed a petition that second referundum an excuse to sign another "save Corbyn"petition, it will be a good distraction for the poor darlings.
The correlation between people who voted for AV, Corbyn, Ban Trump et al is remarkable. They sign a lot of stuff and don't turn out to vote.
Depressing reports of a surge in immigrants and non-White Britons being hassled in the street post the Brexit vote. Some people clear thought Brexit = all foreigners leave.
Yes, I've heard that too from friends in Birmingham. Nothing yet in London but we are in dangerous times.
Something the PB Guidos / Breibarts simply would not understand.
A defining moment last night was Plato trying to spin that immigration wasn't the main focus of the Leave campaign. They are in denial about the Pandora's box they have opened.
That would be like complaining you were upset a vote for UKIP then meant UKIP supported leaving the EU, if the parties stood on that basis.
I don't think any such thing will happen, as I've explained, and I've no doubt a great many people would be just as outraged as described, but it is simply not true that a democratic endorsement of a position overturning a previous democratic endorsement of a position would not have a mandate. If that is the issue which is key for people, they would have to decide if Labour (for the sake of argument) policy on education was more important than their (theorised) position on staying in the EU. If people decided it was, they cannot credibly complain it was not what they voted for - yes, not everyone will support everything in a manifesto, but that doesn't mean a party has no mandate for its manifesto, which is what you're arguing, since we have no way of knowing which bits people like and which bits they don't/
I agree that you don't need a referendum for every plank of a government's platform. However, a broad mandate for government would be dubious compared to that of a specific mandate delivered via referendum. You're right that we can't assume the motivations for people voting for a specific government, we can however be sure that the referendum showed a majority in favour of leaving the EU.
I have finally realised that a bunch of people on this site who don't even understand that Scotland is a country not a county of England. Do you wonder that independence is now soaring ahead.
This coup against Corbyn will give the ones who signed a petition that second referundum an excuse to sign another "save Corbyn"petition, it will be a good distraction for the poor darlings.
The correlation between people who voted for AV, Corbyn, Ban Trump et al is remarkable. They sign a lot of stuff and don't turn out to vote.
Thats because real elections involve trying to persuade people who don't actually agree with you to change their mind, not emoting all over facebook with people of like views.
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
And the Tories (if led by a genuine Leaver) need to align with Ukip. They must not contest seats with each other.
Seriously? The tories have spent years calling us names, no way will Ukip prop them up, our voters would skin us alive.
If it looks like the Tories have been purged of Remain supporters, and it was clear that this General Election was a rerun of the referendum, I think we would do what was in the country's interest.
Disgruntled labour voters might vote Ukip, if they thought that Ukip would go into coalition with the Conservatives they wouldn't. I was told that hundreds of times in labour wards.
I would consider a vote for UKIP if the PLP somehow manage to overthrow the democratically elected leader. My current MP is likely to be at the forefront of this he organized Kendall's successful bid [finger on the pulse].
Shit has just become real for the swivel eyed loons.
hmmm
it still hasnt occurred to you that pontless name calling probably cost Remain this referendum ?
next time try charming the electorate.
The swivel eyed loons are curiously absent now. Apart from backtracking on the NHS funding and saying that immigration will not go down.
Unlike David Cameron, Vote Leave never gave a number for migration, as was clear during the BBC Great Debate.
They did. Michael Gove gave the same tens of thousands figure. I and s couple of others were lonely voices on this forum asserting that a Leave vote would make no significant change to immigration beyond recession effects. Nevertheless the question whether to leave the EU was a clear one, as was the result. The fact that the Leave campaign was a pack of lies doesn't invalidate that result. We have to accept it and deal with mess as best can.
The Corbyn magic doesn't seem to be working on Facebook or Twitter. Opinion seems genuinely divided rather than behind him. A big change. He could be going.
There really is a concerted effort to overturn this referendum result - disgusting but not unexpected. It will backfire - a second referendum will result in an even bigger Leave margin, and a GE held on the EU issue would be suicide for Labour in particular.
ITS NOT FAIR SO IM GOING TO STAMP MY FEET AND SCWEAM AND SCWEAM AND SCWEAM
Yes, hilarious.
But since we know for a fact some Leavers (though not I) would have been calling for a second referendum if the result had been the same but reversed - and we know that because Farage said as much - perhaps a recognition it is not a 'disgusting' disgrace of democracy would be in order?
It's a futile reaction and, yes, based on not liking the democratic result, but the other side would have done the same, and you know what, if Remain did win a second referendum, it would be valid too (though would then likely face calls for a third referendum, another reason why a second won't happen, where do you end), democracy means the people can change their minds, even quickly.
And in any case, as houndtang says, Leave might well win a second referendum, by a bigger margin - some remainers may stay at home, not happy with all this, more leavers may turn out to prevent being outvoted or more converted by disgust at a new referendum being called.
"NON! EU slaps down Sturgeon: SNP leader dramatically announces she wants 'immediate discussions' to STAY in EU... but she is humiliated as Brussels says 'No, that's not how it works'
Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'
But Brussels civil servants snubbed her, saying whole of UK must exit
Sturgeon called for another Scotland referendum during negotiations
But Brussels said if it voted to leave, it would have to re-apply for EU
The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s new bid for independence – by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its membership when Britain leaves.
After the Brexit vote, the SNP leader said she was seeking ‘immediate discussions’ with Brussels to ‘protect Scotland’s place in the EU’.
But The Mail on Sunday can reveal that civil servants in Brussels have already ruled that the whole of the UK must exit the EU following Thursday’s shock vote.
I read that as "The whole of the UK must exit the EU the following Thursday"
There are rules - The UK is one unit of the EU and comes or goes as such. Scotland (if independent) can apply to join/ rejoin (under section 49?) with the same negotiating rights as Albania.
However isn't it great to be able to tell an EU commissioner "Go fly a kite" when they try and demand something.
The Corbyn magic doesn't seem to be working on Facebook or Twitter. Opinion seems genuinely divided rather than behind him. A big change. He could be going.
Depressing reports of a surge in immigrants and non-White Britons being hassled in the street post the Brexit vote. Some people clear thought Brexit = all foreigners leave.
Yes, I've heard that too from friends in Birmingham. Nothing yet in London but we are in dangerous times.
Something the PB Guidos / Breibarts simply would not understand.
A defining moment last night was Plato trying to spin that immigration wasn't the main focus of the Leave campaign. They are in denial about the Pandora's box they have opened.
That box was already open. That's not to absolve Leave of a nasty tone to some of their campaigning on the subject but one reason why we had the vote in the first place was due to the increasing concern about immigration which was in turn fueling the UKIP vote. But if anyone opened the Pandoras Box on immigration, it was Merkel last year.
I nt would be dubious compared to that of a specific mandate delivered via referendum. You're right that we can't assume the motivations for people voting for a specific government, we can however be sure that the referendum showed a majority in favour of leaving the EU.
So a party elected in a GE saying they'll do policy X has no mandate to implement X if it's a "referendum" issue? How exactly are these decided?
People shouldn't underestimate FPTP. Pro-EU parties just need to ensure they don't split the vote.
And the Tories (if led by a genuine Leaver) need to align with Ukip. They must not contest seats with each other.
Seriously? The tories have spent years calling us names, no way will Ukip prop them up, our voters would skin us alive.
If it looks like the Tories have been purged of Remain supporters, and it was clear that this General Election was a rerun of the referendum, I think we would do what was in the country's interest.
Disgruntled labour voters might vote Ukip, if they thought that Ukip would go into coalition with the Conservatives they wouldn't. I was told that hundreds of times in labour wards.
I would consider a vote for UKIP if the PLP somehow manage to overthrow the democratically elected leader. My current MP is likely to be at the forefront of this he organized Kendall's successful bid [finger on the pulse].
Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?
Two issues.
1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.
2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
"Hold off on the Brexit negotiations Jean-Claude, the LD are about to go into government with the New European Democrats"
More seriously, I cannot see that happening. Remain actually wasn't that far off in places I thought they would be, here in Wiltshire they were on 48.5%, but are the LDs or Lab or a new party really going to win a seat here, over all tribal loyalties, because the EU is so vital to them, even though they voted Leave? A new party isn't going to win on city seats alone, and they probably wouldn't win those either.
I'm thinking some of the Tories will join the new party.
I don't know that Ken Clarke on his own will be that effective.
186 backed Bremain. They will try to get one of their guys or girls as PM. If they fail, some of them may leave the Tory Party. We are on the edge of a complete realignment of politics in England and Wales.
Most of the 186 backed Cameron out of party loyalty or career ambition.
I have finally realised that a bunch of people on this site who don't even understand that Scotland is a country not a county of England. Do you wonder that independence is now soaring ahead.
Well the referendum covered the whole of the UK. If it had been several regional referendums then you'd be dead right. It wasn't though was it?
I'd entirely concede that these may be quibbles, but where do you draw the line if you decide to set aside one bit of our framework just because it suits you to do so.
So, by all means the SNP can say this is an uncomfortable situation, and by all means let them suggest that they see another IndyRef as a way out of it. They shouldn't be trying to justify that referendum in the way they are though.
Translating. Turns out the NHS won't be getting an extra £350 million a week. Who'da thunk it?
'Unravelling', with its sense of slowness and its grammar of an action progressing but not yet complete, is the wrong word to describe Leave's commitments.
Hilary Benn. The man who tirelessly fights for the poor against nepotism and the untouchable elite. Just like his father and grandfathers did before him and no doubt any of his kids in the future too if they are able to fog a mirror.
That would be like complaining you were upset a vote for UKIP then meant UKIP supported leaving the EU, if the parties stood on that basis.
I don't think any such thing will happen, as I've explained, and I've no doubt a great many people would be just as outraged as described, but it is simply not true that a democratic endorsement of a position overturning a previous democratic endorsement of a position would not have a mandate. If that is the issue which is key for people, they would have to decide if Labour (for the sake of argument) policy on education was more important than their (theorised) position on staying in the EU. If people decided it was, they cannot credibly complain it was not what they voted for - yes, not everyone will support everything in a manifesto, but that doesn't mean a party has no mandate for its manifesto, which is what you're arguing, since we have no way of knowing which bits people like and which bits they don't/
I agree that you don't need a referendum for every plank of a government's platform. However, a broad mandate for government would be dubious compared to that of a specific mandate delivered via referendum. You're right that we can't assume the motivations for people voting for a specific government, we can however be sure that the referendum showed a majority in favour of leaving the EU.
Yes we can. And if a party said 'Our first act if elected would be to remain in the EU' that is equally as unambiguous. The difficulty there would be if they had less than 50% of the vote and no other party saying the same thing got the overall adding up to 50%.
Any government elected on such a basis would be well advised to hold another referendum to confirm that particular issue (since their election, at the least, showed that perhaps people no longer favour leaving, and need to be asked again).
But it's all hypothetical - my starting position is there's no way we're not leaving, and there would be astounding chaos if we tried to stop that, but that it's not undemocratic to prevent it if it is done via democratic means.
If MPs just flat out ignored the vote, that would be undemocratic, though it would be legal.
IDS confirms on Mart more money will be given to the NHS and Agriculture from the savings made by BREXIT. He also states that UKIP will have representatives in the withdrawal negotiations process
Next election, Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP and Greens stand on continuing membership of EU and cancelling withdrawl negotiations. Labour win and we stay in?
Two issues.
1) Even if we can delay declaring article 50 until October, can it be delayed until after a snap GE? Seems doubtful, and once declared there's no turning back was my understanding.
2) Labour will not stand on continuing membership.It might play well in about half their seats (although perhaps not - not all remainers will be on board), but it would be devastating in the other half. Their best bet is to pledge to try for as close as we can get, short of membership. Greens could do so, and if Labour ditch Corbyn they might regain some of the far left vote. LDs have little to lose but simply are not going to win in most places - after all, most places voted Leave in any case. And the SNP, well, do they really want to stop the negotiations? They are on the path they want now.
I think we could be heading to a new party that will oppose leaving the EU. I reckon if the EU think this new party has a chance of winning, they'll hold fire and give them a chance.
"Hold off on the Brexit negotiations Jean-Claude, the LD are about to go into government with the New European Democrats"
More seriously, I cannot see that happening. Remain actually wasn't that far off in places I thought they would be, here in Wiltshire they were on 48.5%, but are the LDs or Lab or a new party really going to win a seat here, over all tribal loyalties, because the EU is so vital to them, even though they voted Leave? A new party isn't going to win on city seats alone, and they probably wouldn't win those either.
I'm thinking some of the Tories will join the new party.
I don't know that Ken Clarke on his own will be that effective.
186 backed Bremain. They will try to get one of their guys or girls as PM. If they fail, some of them may leave the Tory Party. We are on the edge of a complete realignment of politics in England and Wales.
Most of the 186 backed Cameron out of party loyalty or career ambition.
Remember Osborne to backbenchers - "do you want to Leave, or do you want a career"? All those poor cowed schmucks holding an Osborne career advancement IOU, at the cost of a very pissed off local membership... I suspect many will have now "heard the will of the people" over the sound of torn up paper...
"NON! EU slaps down Sturgeon: SNP leader dramatically announces she wants 'immediate discussions' to STAY in EU... but she is humiliated as Brussels says 'No, that's not how it works'
Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to 'protect Scotland's place in the EU'
But Brussels civil servants snubbed her, saying whole of UK must exit
Sturgeon called for another Scotland referendum during negotiations
But Brussels said if it voted to leave, it would have to re-apply for EU
The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s new bid for independence – by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its membership when Britain leaves.
After the Brexit vote, the SNP leader said she was seeking ‘immediate discussions’ with Brussels to ‘protect Scotland’s place in the EU’.
But The Mail on Sunday can reveal that civil servants in Brussels have already ruled that the whole of the UK must exit the EU following Thursday’s shock vote.
I read that as "The whole of the UK must exit the EU the following Thursday"
There are rules - The UK is one unit of the EU and comes or goes as such. Scotland (if independent) can apply to join/ rejoin (under section 49?) with the same negotiating rights as Albania.
However isn't it great to be able to tell an EU commissioner "Go fly a kite" when they try and demand something.
Ha Ha Ha , it is in the Mail so must be Gospel for sure, they never print merde about Scotland
Hilary Benn. The man who tirelessly fights for the poor against nepotism and the untouchable elite. Just like his father and grandfathers did before him and no doubt any of his kids in the future too if they are able to fog a mirror.
His niece was selected as a parliamentary candidate at age 17 I believe. Very able young woman apparently, Cyclefree has met her IIRC, and definitely selected on merit at age 17, I am sure.
Comments
I don't think Cameron is going to have any choice other than to withdraw his resignation or go and see the HM Queen and ask her to get someone else to form a government the way things are going.
I'm hoping they can keep it up for a while, too often this place is moribund and dull.
Iain Murray rumoured to be resigning - Labour's only Scottish MP
But alas in the current climate I couldn't think of anything that would trigger the second reaction
Step forward Keir Starmer.
I don't think any such thing will happen, as I've explained, and I've no doubt a great many people would be just as outraged as described, but it is simply not true that a democratic endorsement of a position overturning a previous democratic endorsement of a position would not have a mandate. If that is the issue which is key for people, they would have to decide if Labour (for the sake of argument) policy on education was more important than their (theorised) position on staying in the EU. If people decided it was, they cannot credibly complain it was not what they voted for - yes, not everyone will support everything in a manifesto, but that doesn't mean a party has no mandate for its manifesto, which is what you're arguing, since we have no way of knowing which bits people like and which bits they don't/
Johnson, Gove, Leadsom? Have they said no end to free movement?
Quite - there's all sorts of reason such a scenario will not happen, but to call in to question it's legitimacy is nonsense, for just that reason.
It will be a formidable challenge for Britain’s next prime minister to make an economic, diplomatic and political success out of Brexit. Or, to set the bar at a more realistic level, to contain the damage. Nigel Farage, empowered by this result, will be breathing down the neck of the next occupant of Number 10 and itching to denounce anything less than total divorce as a betrayal. The talks with EU leaders will require seriousness, finesse, diplomacy and a capacity for building trusting relationships, not qualities usually associated with Mr Johnson. It will also require flexibility, which is more his forte.
[...]
As the old saying goes: they broke it, now the Brexiters own it. Which may explain why, as mournful as David Cameron was in defeat, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove looked even grimmer in victory.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/26/brexit-eu-referendum-disunited-kingdom
Something the PB Guidos / Breibarts simply would not understand.
The problems are overblown. There will be no hard border between Scotland and England just as there won't be between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Only EU insistence on Schengen would arrive at that and the EU shall not do that. The currency issue is now clarified in favour of a sterlingisation followed by a Scottish pound. Euro membership is not only not compulsary it is impossible as it requires two years of membership of the ERM which is a voluntary decision eg Sweden.
Sturgeon is clearly the only leader capable of leading in the UK at present - She is likely to prevail.
The MPs are in the main dripping wet liberals and the membership are a bunch of citizen smith neotrots.
It is not one Party (let alone any individual) that has failed. It is all of them. Which is to say that representative democracy itself is an idea whose time has gone.
"We lied"
I am enjoying the self destruction of the Conservative party live on TV, and hopeful for Jezza to be defenestrated in favour of someone who can capitalise on it all.
Rejoining would be a significant difference from remaining, if they even accepted us back, no certainty, we'd have to sign up to everything.
It's hard choice for the LDs and others. Immediate anger and shock means there will be some votes in pledging to prevent us from leaving, but given the democratic mandate really needs another democratic mandate to be overturned with as little chaos as possible (which would still be a lot), and there's no realistic route to that, they need a pitch for assuming we are indeed leaving. And that means either 'rejoin' or 'remain close to'.
I wonder if the two main parties will collapse and be replaced with the two parties that fought the referendum. Has this already happened defacto?
Stranger things have happened.
There was plenty of media focus on divided Britain before the vote. And Farage was calling for a re-match back then as well.
I have finally realised that a bunch of people on this site who don't even understand that Scotland is a country not a county of England. Do you wonder that independence is now soaring ahead.
Reports of lynch mobs in Dover.
Nick Griffin to be PM.
Houses in Mayfair sold at auction for 7/6
Mile long queues at ATMs hijacked at gunpoint by Roma
Every NHS worker leaves UK
Malta invades us
The Corbyn magic doesn't seem to be working on Facebook or Twitter. Opinion seems genuinely divided rather than behind him. A big change. He could be going.
But since we know for a fact some Leavers (though not I) would have been calling for a second referendum if the result had been the same but reversed - and we know that because Farage said as much - perhaps a recognition it is not a 'disgusting' disgrace of democracy would be in order?
It's a futile reaction and, yes, based on not liking the democratic result, but the other side would have done the same, and you know what, if Remain did win a second referendum, it would be valid too (though would then likely face calls for a third referendum, another reason why a second won't happen, where do you end), democracy means the people can change their minds, even quickly.
And in any case, as houndtang says, Leave might well win a second referendum, by a bigger margin - some remainers may stay at home, not happy with all this, more leavers may turn out to prevent being outvoted or more converted by disgust at a new referendum being called.
There are rules - The UK is one unit of the EU and comes or goes as such. Scotland (if independent) can apply to join/ rejoin (under section 49?) with the same negotiating rights as Albania.
However isn't it great to be able to tell an EU commissioner "Go fly a kite" when they try and demand something.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
"I'm desperate for a Left Wing Leader. Corbyn meets the first requirement, but obviously not the second."
Labour need someone who will bring much more energy to showing contempt to WWC people.
I'd entirely concede that these may be quibbles, but where do you draw the line if you decide to set aside one bit of our framework just because it suits you to do so.
So, by all means the SNP can say this is an uncomfortable situation, and by all means let them suggest that they see another IndyRef as a way out of it. They shouldn't be trying to justify that referendum in the way they are though.
Any government elected on such a basis would be well advised to hold another referendum to confirm that particular issue (since their election, at the least, showed that perhaps people no longer favour leaving, and need to be asked again).
But it's all hypothetical - my starting position is there's no way we're not leaving, and there would be astounding chaos if we tried to stop that, but that it's not undemocratic to prevent it if it is done via democratic means.
If MPs just flat out ignored the vote, that would be undemocratic, though it would be legal.