Markets are going to tank again tomorrow. Stg down a lot more i would expect.
Oh good-oh. I've got some pension funds tied up in a deposit fund. I was planning to switch it to share based on Friday but shares didn't drop nearly enough. If all this panicking knocks 1000 points of the FTSE next week the time will be right to make a killing.
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
Exactly, there will be a natural decline in immigration. Who wants to come to a country full of xenophobia and bigots?
I'm not surprised about Benn's sacking - if you go around asking other MPs whether the party leader should be removed, don't be surprised if said leader takes umbrage and acts.
I'm slightly surprised at some of the reaction - I thought the Conservatives valued loyalty. Had it been Hammond doing the same to Cameron, would Conservative activists have been more indulgent ?
The first shapes of the post-Referendum political landscape are starting to emerge as the tide of the vote to LEAVE rolls out. The LDs want to be "the party of the 48" - fair enough, but the problem is IF we returned to the EU, as I understand it, we'd have to take the Euro, Schengen and all the rest of it. Now, that's a coherent position of sorts but I suspect not one favoured by most REMAIN supporters. I also think were Britain to seek to rejoin, some "compromises" would be done to smooth the way but no one can say that here and now.
It's the problem Nicola Sturgeon is running into - an independent Scotland can apply to join the EU but it wouldn't be on the same terms as the former UK membership. No opt outs, no rebates, the Euro and Schengen would be mandatory.
The EU needs to decide how to play this and here's the problem. If they play soft and the UK gets a "velvet divorce", it will encourage others to believe it won't be so bad to leave. Play hardball and we all suffer. I suspect the delay in invoking Article 50 is mutually beneficial as it gives both the EU and the UK time to think.
There's also the awkward truth that France elects a new President next year and Germany has a federal election also next year so the mood music during the Article 50 negotiations may change somewhat if new forces take over in Paris and Berlin.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
Look on the bright side. If Remain had won we would have had only POTUS to entertain us. Now we have a myriad of politicalbetting opportunities.
As in the Russian proverb "My house is burning down, I may as well warm my hands"
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
Look on the bright side. If Remain had won we would have had only POTUS to entertain us. Now we have a myriad of politicalbetting opportunities.
I'm still hoping that Ed Miliband will emerge as the inevitable unity candidate for next Labour leader.
An interesting piece on why the psychology of the areas that voted Leave did so:
"While it may be one thing for an investment banker to understand that they ‘benefit from the EU’ in regulatory terms, it is quite another to encourage poor and culturally marginalised people to feel grateful towards the elites that sustain them through handouts, month by month. Resentment develops not in spite of this generosity, but arguably because of it. This isn’t to discredit what the EU does in terms of redistribution, but pointing to handouts is a psychologically and politically naïve basis on which to justify remaining in the EU.
In this context, the slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic. Think of what it means on an individual level to rediscover control. To be a person without control (for instance to suffer incontinence or a facial tick) is to be the butt of cruel jokes, to be potentially embarrassed in public. It potentially reduces one’s independence. What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to this feeling of inadequacy and embarrassment, then promised to eradicate it. The promise had nothing to do with economics or policy, but everything to do with the psychological allure of autonomy and self-respect."
But at least my job is safe. The NHS is going to get an extra £350 million per year. It must be true, I saw it on the side of a bus.
£350 million a week.
I've been thinking about this figure a bit.
If you do the maths, it would only represent a 15-20% increase in the current NHS budget.
It would be pretty politically difficult NOT to spend another £350m a week on the nhs/social care budget by the end of the next parliament when you take into account inflation and the ageing population - so whoever gets the tory gig might as well go to the country with it, honouring the pledge as part of their manifesto.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU?
Is he expecting a vote this year? Otherwise he might need to change that to 'rejoin', which will be a far less easy prospect to sell than even 'stay' will be. I know the referendum vote is being treated like the act of leaving, and realistically (and politically) there is no way it will not be so, but my understanding was we will legally be bound to go according to the EU once article 50 is declared, come what may, whereas before then there is technically a chance.
Labour dare not campaign at a snap GE on a promise to ignore voters in their heartlands, so it'd be hilarious if there was such a reversal of opinion - god knows what could cause it - and a couple years after their lowest ebb since the 50s the LDs see hundreds of gains!
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
Exactly, there will be a natural decline in immigration. Who wants to come to a country full of xenophobia and bigots?
The primary bigots are those labelling 52% of the nation as bigots.
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
Exactly, there will be a natural decline in immigration. Who wants to come to a country full of xenophobia and bigots?
Must say I liked TSE's (for once) subtle pop reference in the thread header.
Nothing will beat TSE's recent and brilliant analogy comparing Cameron's decision to hold a referendum with the regrettable publishing of home made pornography.
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
Look on the bright side. If Remain had won we would have had only POTUS to entertain us. Now we have a myriad of politicalbetting opportunities.
I'm still hoping that Ed Miliband will emerge as the inevitable unity candidate for next Labour leader.
Yes! And IDS to throw his hat into the ring for the Tories.
Not sure why she only just noticed - if anything, despite being a bit quiet for their tastes during the referendum, he's been better in the last few months.
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
So where will they emigrate to?
There is always a substantial flow in both directions. The net flw will shift considerably, particularly the more skilled migrants.
Fox jr is looking at working in the Gulf for example.
I'm not surprised about Benn's sacking - if you go around asking other MPs whether the party leader should be removed, don't be surprised if said leader takes umbrage and acts.
I'm slightly surprised at some of the reaction - I thought the Conservatives valued loyalty. Had it been Hammond doing the same to Cameron, would Conservative activists have been more indulgent ?
The first shapes of the post-Referendum political landscape are starting to emerge as the tide of the vote to LEAVE rolls out. The LDs want to be "the party of the 48" - fair enough, but the problem is IF we returned to the EU, as I understand it, we'd have to take the Euro, Schengen and all the rest of it. Now, that's a coherent position of sorts but I suspect not one favoured by most REMAIN supporters. I also think were Britain to seek to rejoin, some "compromises" would be done to smooth the way but no one can say that here and now
Maybe what will happen eventually is a two-speed Europe made up of an EU which is all-Schengen and Euro-only, those who don't want either of those will have to join the EEA which as a result will become more important and more of an equal partner to the EU.
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
Look on the bright side. If Remain had won we would have had only POTUS to entertain us. Now we have a myriad of politicalbetting opportunities.
I'm still hoping that Ed Miliband will emerge as the inevitable unity candidate for next Labour leader.
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
Look on the bright side. If Remain had won we would have had only POTUS to entertain us. Now we have a myriad of politicalbetting opportunities.
I'm still hoping that Ed Miliband will emerge as the inevitable unity candidate for next Labour leader.
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
Look on the bright side. If Remain had won we would have had only POTUS to entertain us. Now we have a myriad of politicalbetting opportunities.
I'm still hoping that Ed Miliband will emerge as the inevitable unity candidate for next Labour leader.
I do wish a political realignment were actually possible - not really a better time, but it's such a risk, and tribal labels so strong even now, that it just won't happen.
@GdnPolitics: Sky News reporting a text from Corbyn office "There will be no resignation of democratically elected leader with huge mandate from members"
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
Exactly, there will be a natural decline in immigration. Who wants to come to a country full of xenophobia and bigots?
The primary bigots are those labelling 52% of the nation as bigots.
Take the mote out of thine own eye ...
Where were you during the Referendum campaign?
You may not like to hear this but here goes. As someone who is from immigrant stock, for the first time in my life I feel a sense of unease, a sense of fear and a sense of not being welcome here. I think I contribute positively to this country (e.g. I pay over 30k in taxes every year). I also know that this is a feeling shared with quite a few of my 'immigrant' friends.
You can make snide remarks or call me a traitor or even tell me to piss off but I am going to continue to tell it as it is.
I forgot to congratulate Norfolk on its voting pattern. Norwich, I will forgive.
I understand your disappointment, I've grown used to being on the wrong side of any GE vote. If nothing else, this has enlivened politics tremendously. How long can it last?
I'm not disappointed on my own behalf. New laws and uncertainty are always good for lawyers.
It is, however, a disaster for the country. Pandering to xenophobia works. That's the long term takeaway from this result. We can now expect much much more of the same from our politicians.
No, the takeaway is that purely negative campaigns do not work. Remain, we are told, followed the successful tactics of Better Together in the Scottish referendum -- apparently without noticing the direction of travel in that campaign was against them and the union was almost lost. Instead of the positive case for the EU, we had weeks of what Brexit would cost, and when that did not work, Osborne doubled down on the bet by pre-announcing a punitive budget.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
It's not a well thought out policy on a number of levels. First, the fact is LEAVE won and 30% of 2015 LD voters (including me) backed LEAVE.
It's now up to all sides to make this work - ideally by arguing for the EFTA option and supporting those who agree. Immigration is a subject on which we need to have a national debate - let's not beat round the bush - it is a big subject, a lot of people don't like the way the issue has been suppressed. I see it up close and personal in my part of London every day - it's not wholly positive and we need to be honest about the socio-economic downsides.
There's also the not unreasonable point we won't be able to rejoin on the terms we "enjoyed" - the opt outs and the rebates will be gone. We will have to pay up, suck up the Euro and probably Schengen and a raft of other things (I don't actually think that would be the case).
Liberal-minded people pride themselves on their tolerance but you can't force people to tolerate everything in the same of some nebulous concept called freedom of movement. REMAIN treated everyone as an economic drone - work hard, enjoy 1.5% extra GDP growth a year (not that you'll see any of it) and above all don't think too much about how your community is changing, your local services are creaking under the strain and the place you call home is somewhere you don't recognise.
Apparently having those kind of concerns makes you a racist - if that's true, I'm a racist.
I hope that both the Labour and Conservative parties as they currently exist are destroyed. I'd like to see emerge from the wreckage a recognition that the old left/right view of politics is utterly useless. We need essentially two parties: 1. A party of the big state, collectivism, supranationality, directive, paternalist. Nanny knows best. 2. A party of the individual, recognises people's own views on what they want, instinctively supportive of our own culture and interests.
Alexander gave the best speech of the Referendum campaign imho. I can't remember a phrase from a mainstream politician bring a tear to my eye before.
She was very good at putting the govt on the rack over the Junior Doctors dispute (however people side on that, remember the Labour selectorate are only on the side of the Unions and workers). She is a good commons performer, and that has been noted by MPs. Not much political baggage either. She was also left wing enough to join Jezza in the shadow cabinet.
The Labour Party seem determined to self destruct, they need a leader who pledges to cut immigration and they'll win a landslide at the next GE. It seems some people have learned nothing from the referendum.
There will be a cut in immigration.
The sliding pound, xenophobia and damage to the economy will shift things considerably in favour of emmigration from immigration.
Exactly, there will be a natural decline in immigration. Who wants to come to a country full of xenophobia and bigots?
The primary bigots are those labelling 52% of the nation as bigots.
Take the mote out of thine own eye ...
Where were you during the Referendum campaign?
You may not like to hear this but here goes. As someone who is from immigrant stock, for the first time in my life I feel a sense of unease, a sense of fear and a sense of not being welcome here. I think I contribute positively to this country (e.g. I pay over 30k in taxes every year). I also know that this is a feeling shared with quite a few of my 'immigrant' friends.
You can make snide remarks or call me a traitor or even tell me to piss off but I am going to continue to tell it as it is.
Yes, I've spoken to several people of partly immigrant background, born here, who feel the same.
I'm not surprised about Benn's sacking - if you go around asking other MPs whether the party leader should be removed, don't be surprised if said leader takes umbrage and acts.
I'm slightly surprised at some of the reaction - I thought the Conservatives valued loyalty. Had it been Hammond doing the same to Cameron, would Conservative activists have been more indulgent ?
The first shapes of the post-Referendum political landscape are starting to emerge as the tide of the vote to LEAVE rolls out. The LDs want to be "the party of the 48" - fair enough, but the problem is IF we returned to the EU, as I understand it, we'd have to take the Euro, Schengen and all the rest of it. Now, that's a coherent position of sorts but I suspect not one favoured by most REMAIN supporters. I also think were Britain to seek to rejoin, some "compromises" would be done to smooth the way but no one can say that here and now
Maybe what will happen eventually is a two-speed Europe made up of an EU which is all-Schengen and Euro-only, those who don't want either of those will have to join the EEA which as a result will become more important and more of an equal partner to the EU.
It is a more coherent and manageable model than the current one. Given that we are leaving, it is the option I favour, and I suspect I am in a majority.
What now happens to the Heathrow decision that was expected in the next fortnight? Boris is massively anti and DC is a lame duck. The chancellor has dissappeared and has lost credibility. I would not be surprised if it is put back
Do we need to expand Heathrow post Brexit? Maybe we should be thinking of which London airport we can shut.
IIUC it doesn't quite touch onto the M25. Assuming that's going to be the border of London, it'll need to be expanded up to there, then I guess you put London customs and immigration either just on the London side or in the tunnel under the M25.
The border will need to be shortened on the East side, so as to allow those parts of London that voted Out to stick with their original decision. The big question is whether that should use the M11 as the dividing line or the A10.
The M11 would make more sense, TBH, although it would mean Woodford, Loughton and Theydon Bois remained inside London and the EU.
You would need a new river crossing where the Woolwich ferry is right now, and then you could rejoin at the A20. In this way, the most Eurosceptic parts of London would be allowed to stay outside the EU.
That's nice and symmetrical, as you can replicate the "one airport, two borders" setup at London City Airport as well, which gives both countries an incentive to be helpful to the other.
Yes, like Geneva airport has its Swiss and French zones. Good thinking.
The OP isn't being very fair on east London. Woodford almost certainly went solidly for remain, given that Redbridge as a whole was remain and the west side of the Borugh is the most middle class bit. And neither Loughton nor Theydon Bois are in London to begin with.....
I'm not surprised about Benn's sacking - if you go around asking other MPs whether the party leader should be removed, don't be surprised if said leader takes umbrage and acts.
I'm slightly surprised at some of the reaction - I thought the Conservatives valued loyalty. Had it been Hammond doing the same to Cameron, would Conservative activists have been more indulgent ?
The first shapes of the post-Referendum political landscape are starting to emerge as the tide of the vote to LEAVE rolls out. The LDs want to be "the party of the 48" - fair enough, but the problem is IF we returned to the EU, as I understand it, we'd have to take the Euro, Schengen and all the rest of it. Now, that's a coherent position of sorts but I suspect not one favoured by most REMAIN supporters. I also think were Britain to seek to rejoin, some "compromises" would be done to smooth the way but no one can say that here and now.
It's the problem Nicola Sturgeon is running into - an independent Scotland can apply to join the EU but it wouldn't be on the same terms as the former UK membership. No opt outs, no rebates, the Euro and Schengen would be mandatory.
The EU needs to decide how to play this and here's the problem. If they play soft and the UK gets a "velvet divorce", it will encourage others to believe it won't be so bad to leave. Play hardball and we all suffer. I suspect the delay in invoking Article 50 is mutually beneficial as it gives both the EU and the UK time to think.
There's also the awkward truth that France elects a new President next year and Germany has a federal election also next year so the mood music during the Article 50 negotiations may change somewhat if new forces take over in Paris and Berlin.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
It really depends on when the election is held and whether article 50 has been triggered by then. If Cameron doesn't trigger article 50, and I don't think he will, and if the new Tory leader calls a GE (a few Tory rebels could also cause this) then in won't be so much going back in as not actually leaving that will be the GE question. A GE result would easily trump an advisory referendum. The people will have spoken (again).
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
It's not a well thought out policy on a number of levels. First, the fact is LEAVE won and 30% of 2015 LD voters (including me) backed LEAVE.
It's now up to all sides to make this work - ideally by arguing for the EFTA option and supporting those who agree. Immigration is a subject on which we need to have a national debate - let's not beat round the bush - it is a big subject, a lot of people don't like the way the issue has been suppressed. I see it up close and personal in my part of London every day - it's not wholly positive and we need to be honest about the socio-economic downsides.
There's also the not unreasonable point we won't be able to rejoin on the terms we "enjoyed" - the opt outs and the rebates will be gone. We will have to pay up, suck up the Euro and probably Schengen and a raft of other things (I don't actually think that would be the case).
Liberal-minded people pride themselves on their tolerance but you can't force people to tolerate everything in the same of some nebulous concept called freedom of movement. REMAIN treated everyone as an economic drone - work hard, enjoy 1.5% extra GDP growth a year (not that you'll see any of it) and above all don't think too much about how your community is changing, your local services are creaking under the strain and the place you call home is somewhere you don't recognise.
Apparently having those kind of concerns makes you a racist - if that's true, I'm a racist.
As an LD, albeit a Remainer, I share concern regarding this as a policy. It is far too early to write such a manifesto pledge. Far better to work for an EEA/EFTA style deal that is as near a facsimile of membership as possible.
@RobertAlanWard: We've cut our UK 4cast post #Brexit vote & now expect UK GDP to shrink 1% in 2017 (+1.8% prev). Subdued outlook to 2020, weaker fiscal base.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU?
Is he expecting a vote this year? Otherwise he might need to change that to 'rejoin', which will be a far less easy prospect to sell than even 'stay' will be. I know the referendum vote is being treated like the act of leaving, and realistically (and politically) there is no way it will not be so, but my understanding was we will legally be bound to go according to the EU once article 50 is declared, come what may, whereas before then there is technically a chance.
Labour dare not campaign at a snap GE on a promise to ignore voters in their heartlands, so it'd be hilarious if there was such a reversal of opinion - god knows what could cause it - and a couple years after their lowest ebb since the 50s the LDs see hundreds of gains!
There are more and more...... not many, but an increasing number ..... of suggestions that the Referendum was “only advisory”. Whether Parliament deciding that was the case woul;d cause even more hullaballoo........
And Farron made an excellent pro-Remain stump speech.... proud English, proud British, proud European and so opn. Couple..... even one ...... of similar ones in Parliament might give him a much higher media profile.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
It's not a well thought out policy on a number of levels. First, the fact is LEAVE won and 30% of 2015 LD voters (including me) backed LEAVE.
It's now up to all sides to make this work - ideally by arguing for the EFTA option and supporting those who agree. Immigration is a subject on which we need to have a national debate - let's not beat round the bush - it is a big subject, a lot of people don't like the way the issue has been suppressed. I see it up close and personal in my part of London every day - it's not wholly positive and we need to be honest about the socio-economic downsides.
There's also the not unreasonable point we won't be able to rejoin on the terms we "enjoyed" - the opt outs and the rebates will be gone. We will have to pay up, suck up the Euro and probably Schengen and a raft of other things (I don't actually think that would be the case).
Liberal-minded people pride themselves on their tolerance but you can't force people to tolerate everything in the same of some nebulous concept called freedom of movement. REMAIN treated everyone as an economic drone - work hard, enjoy 1.5% extra GDP growth a year (not that you'll see any of it) and above all don't think too much about how your community is changing, your local services are creaking under the strain and the place you call home is somewhere you don't recognise.
Apparently having those kind of concerns makes you a racist - if that's true, I'm a racist.
As an LD, albeit a Remainer, I share concern regarding this as a policy. It is far too early to write such a manifesto pledge. Far better to work for an EEA/EFTA style deal that is as near a facsimile of membership as possible.
This could be deadly for the Tories. Labour end up with an electable leader and they vote for an unelectable one.
So it is serious, but it's difficult to take it all seriously at the moment. It's as if I'd fallen down a rabbit hole.
Quite. The crass stupidity and lack of forethought of the right wing of the Tory party in all its shining glory. We have a popular, proven leader you have an unelectable imbecile. Let's swap it around. I don't care about the referendum result. Its short sighted and stupid but nothing much will change once a deals done. Losing Cameron shows a basic lack of commonsense and an alarming amount of Corbynesque levels of ideology from the right.
A straight fight between John McDonnell, Heidi Alexander and Ed Miliband for next Labour leader would be particularly nice.
Mr Meeks is looking forward to a Labour kamikazi party, and I must say, so am I.
Morning, aren't we all? Was I the only one expecting to switch off for a few days as the Tories jostled for position, only to be shocked that Labour are the ones committing suicide first?
Half the shad cab will resign, yet if JC doesn't want to stand down it will the same process as last time, 3-quidders and all - and the 'membership' still thinks that, much like another JC, he can walk on water!
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU?
Is he expecting a vote this year? Otherwise he might need to change that to 'rejoin', which will be a far less easy prospect to sell than even 'stay' will be. I know the referendum vote is being treated like the act of leaving, and realistically (and politically) there is no way it will not be so, but my understanding was we will legally be bound to go according to the EU once article 50 is declared, come what may, whereas before then there is technically a chance.
Labour dare not campaign at a snap GE on a promise to ignore voters in their heartlands, so it'd be hilarious if there was such a reversal of opinion - god knows what could cause it - and a couple years after their lowest ebb since the 50s the LDs see hundreds of gains!
There are more and more...... not many, but an increasing number ..... of suggestions that the Referendum was “only advisory”. Whether Parliament deciding that was the case woul;d cause even more hullaballoo........
And Farron made an excellent pro-Remain stump speech.... proud English, proud British, proud European and so opn. Couple..... even one ...... of similar ones in Parliament might give him a much higher media profile.
This could be deadly for the Tories. Labour end up with an electable leader and they vote for an unelectable one.
So it is serious, but it's difficult to take it all seriously at the moment. It's as if I'd fallen down a rabbit hole.
Quite. The crass stupidity and lack of forethought of the right wing of the Tory party in all its shining glory. We have a popular, proven leader you have an unelectable imbecile. Let's swap it around. I don't care about the referendum result. Its short sighted and stupid but nothing much will change once a deals done. Losing Cameron shows a basic lack of commonsense and an alarming amount of Corbynesque levels of ideology from the right.
This is looking perilous for the Tories - the Leave faction in particular. They bet the farm on Corbyn's staying in place and assumed they'd subsequently romp home whatever they f*cked around doing. If Labour gets someone decent and rallies to them, and the post-Brexit consequences are only half as bad as people are fearing, then the 2020 electoral carnage will make 1997 look sub-optimal.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
It's not a well thought out policy on a number of levels. First, the fact is LEAVE won and 30% of 2015 LD voters (including me) backed LEAVE.
It's now up to all sides to make this work - ideally by arguing for the EFTA option and supporting those who agree. Immigration is a subject on which we need to have a national debate - let's not beat round the bush - it is a big subject, a lot of people don't like the way the issue has been suppressed. I see it up close and personal in my part of London every day - it's not wholly positive and we need to be honest about the socio-economic downsides.
There's also the not unreasonable point we won't be able to rejoin on the terms we "enjoyed" - the opt outs and the rebates will be gone. We will have to pay up, suck up the Euro and probably Schengen and a raft of other things (I don't actually think that would be the case).
Liberal-minded people pride themselves on their tolerance but you can't force people to tolerate everything in the same of some nebulous concept called freedom of movement. REMAIN treated everyone as an economic drone - work hard, enjoy 1.5% extra GDP growth a year (not that you'll see any of it) and above all don't think too much about how your community is changing, your local services are creaking under the strain and the place you call home is somewhere you don't recognise.
Apparently having those kind of concerns makes you a racist - if that's true, I'm a racist.
As an LD, albeit a Remainer, I share concern regarding this as a policy. It is far too early to write such a manifesto pledge. Far better to work for an EEA/EFTA style deal that is as near a facsimile of membership as possible.
As another LD Remainer, I totally agree.
You shouldn't make long-term policy just to get headlines, even if you have 8 MPs and seriously have to roll the dice.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU?
Is he expecting a vote this year? Otherwise he might need to change that to 'rejoin', which will be a far less easy prospect to sell than even 'stay' will be. I know the referendum vote is being treated like the act of leaving, and realistically (and politically) there is no way it will not be so, but my understanding was we will legally be bound to go according to the EU once article 50 is declared, come what may, whereas before then there is technically a chance.
Labour dare not campaign at a snap GE on a promise to ignore voters in their heartlands, so it'd be hilarious if there was such a reversal of opinion - god knows what could cause it - and a couple years after their lowest ebb since the 50s the LDs see hundreds of gains!
There are more and more...... not many, but an increasing number ..... of suggestions that the Referendum was “only advisory”. Whether Parliament deciding that was the case woul;d cause even more hullaballoo........
I'd say it would! It's true, and they have the power, but how many even Remainer MPs think it would be better for them to declare that, lose their seats and not prevent an exit, rather than reluctantly accept the will of the people? Even trying to have a second referendum, which if Remain one would mean both options received democratic approval, would be a hard sell to any MPs at present (I'm expecting when the debate on the petition happens for a lot of 'not a bad idea, but too late now' with the occasional 'would be a travesty against democracy' stuff)
Farron has nothing to lose, however - yes, 30% of LD voters went for Brexit, but even if they held on to most of their current voters the might lose a few seats next time too, and if there is a snap GE, maybe if the Tories or Labour are split there's more they can gain by being all in on Regretexit.
Want a bet? £50 at evens says that the punitive budget will not be implemented.
over what timescale?
Osborne said it would happen this year but I'll be generous and say by the next General Election.
Headline claims were on taxes that: * 2p increase in basic rate tax * 3p increase in higher rate tax * 5p increase in inheritance tax rates * Alcohol and petrol duties rise by %
And on spending: * 5% cut on transport, the police and local government * Spending on the NHS will be "slashed" * Pension spending cut by £2 billion a year.
£50 at evens says these will not be implemented. Agreed?
This could be deadly for the Tories. Labour end up with an electable leader and they vote for an unelectable one.
So it is serious, but it's difficult to take it all seriously at the moment. It's as if I'd fallen down a rabbit hole.
Quite. The crass stupidity and lack of forethought of the right wing of the Tory party in all its shining glory. We have a popular, proven leader you have an unelectable imbecile. Let's swap it around. I don't care about the referendum result. Its short sighted and stupid but nothing much will change once a deals done. Losing Cameron shows a basic lack of commonsense and an alarming amount of Corbynesque levels of ideology from the right.
Cameron was going anyway before 2020.
But if he'd won there's be a better chance for a 'sensible, proven' person to take over in his wake.
A straight fight between John McDonnell, Heidi Alexander and Ed Miliband for next Labour leader would be particularly nice.
Mr Meeks is looking forward to a Labour kamikazi party, and I must say, so am I.
Morning, aren't we all? Was I the only one expecting to switch off for a few days as the Tories jostled for position, only to be shocked that Labour are the ones committing suicide first?
Half the shad cab will resign, yet if JC doesn't want to stand down it will the same process as last time, 3-quidders and all - and the 'membership' still thinks that, much like another JC, he can walk on water!
Corbyn will be there manning the fort until the last drop of blood of the Labour Party has been shed. very Custeresque
Osborne said it would happen this year but I'll be generous and say by the next General Election.
Headline claims were on taxes that: * 2p increase in basic rate tax * 3p increase in higher rate tax * 5p increase in inheritance tax rates * Alcohol and petrol duties rise by %
And on spending: * 5% cut on transport, the police and local government * Spending on the NHS will be "slashed" * Pension spending cut by £2 billion a year.
£50 at evens says these will not be implemented. Agreed?
No bet.
The next GE is likely to be before next year, and the specific numbers will be different.
Will Farron's commitment that at the next election the LibDems will campaign for the UK to stay in the EU, thus negating the referendum result, be the final straw for your remaining (sic) in the party?
Far better to work for an EEA/EFTA style deal that is as near a facsimile of membership as possible.
Depending on how near a facsimile it is, that wouldn't even be a bad option for many Leavers.
@ShippersUnbound: You can be leader of the Labour party without any frontbench support. But you can't be leader of the opposition without a shadow cabinet
@RobertAlanWard: We've cut our UK 4cast post #Brexit vote & now expect UK GDP to shrink 1% in 2017 (+1.8% prev). Subdued outlook to 2020, weaker fiscal base.
Question:
Parroting or a [charitable] proposal for a bet between your-goodself and moi. £50 donation to FATJUGS for the loser...?
This could be deadly for the Tories. Labour end up with an electable leader and they vote for an unelectable one.
So it is serious, but it's difficult to take it all seriously at the moment. It's as if I'd fallen down a rabbit hole.
Quite. The crass stupidity and lack of forethought of the right wing of the Tory party in all its shining glory. We have a popular, proven leader you have an unelectable imbecile. Let's swap it around. I don't care about the referendum result. Its short sighted and stupid but nothing much will change once a deals done. Losing Cameron shows a basic lack of commonsense and an alarming amount of Corbynesque levels of ideology from the right.
I notice on Betfair that probability that Labour will have most seats at the next election has almost doubled from 20% to 37%.
This is a real opportunity for Labour if they change leader to say Benn. I have been a defender of Corbyn and I like his refusal to indulge in personal abuse no matter how much provoked. But now is the time for Labour to change leader. It may be that many of Corbyn's supporters in the party membership are beginning to see this too. I don't think it certain that Corbyn will be reelected by the membership.
Burnham was playing football. The referee flipped the coin to decide who kicked off and Burnham called out: Heads, Tails, no Heads, no I mean Tails, Heads it is, or Tails. As the final whistle blew.
A straight fight between John McDonnell, Heidi Alexander and Ed Miliband for next Labour leader would be particularly nice.
Mr Meeks is looking forward to a Labour kamikazi party, and I must say, so am I.
How many of the Labour 'supporters' who got Corbyn elected are still members I wonder.
Easy enough to find another 3 quid :-)
Why not stump up too? This is more important than party politics.
Yes. If a *credible* candidate stands I'll pay £3. That's such a monumentally difficult thing for me to do for all sorts of cultural reasons but ' Britain First ' as some people say.
A straight fight between John McDonnell, Heidi Alexander and Ed Miliband for next Labour leader would be particularly nice.
Mr Meeks is looking forward to a Labour kamikazi party, and I must say, so am I.
How many of the Labour 'supporters' who got Corbyn elected are still members I wonder.
Easy enough to find another 3 quid :-)
Why not stump up too? This is more important than party politics.
Yes. If a *credible* candidate stands I'll pay £3. That's such a monumentally difficult thing for me to do for all sorts of cultural reasons but ' Britain First ' as some people say.
@ShippersUnbound: You can be leader of the Labour party without any frontbench support. But you can't be leader of the opposition without a shadow cabinet
Don't worry, Scott. I'm sure there'll be plent yof amusing things for you to re-tweet when the Conservative Leader Stakes (a handicap for three year olds of all ages) gets under way.
More seriously, I believe it would be possible for Corbyn to be leader of the Labour Party and for someone else to be leader of the PLP.
Elections are often won on lies. Or rather 'lies' (see small print).
I said it to Leavers complaining about Remain lies before the result, I'll say it now, that might be true, but it's irrelevant. You don't suggest it, but someone will, that a second referendum can be justified on that basis alone, but the fact is both sides debunked what they said were the lies of the opponents, and the people chose.
Doesn't mean it is unacceptable for people to campaign for another vote to make sure, or even that the result be ignored, but because both sides pointed out the lies and the people chose, it's hard for politicians to do either of those things en masse.
I hope that both the Labour and Conservative parties as they currently exist are destroyed. I'd like to see emerge from the wreckage a recognition that the old left/right view of politics is utterly useless. We need essentially two parties: 1. A party of the big state, collectivism, supranationality, directive, paternalist. Nanny knows best. 2. A party of the individual, recognises people's own views on what they want, instinctively supportive of our own culture and interests.
What is that other than a description of the old left/right view of politics?
Comments
Wonder if that still holds?
As in the Russian proverb "My house is burning down, I may as well warm my hands"
https://twitter.com/heidi_mp/status/746966874521542656
If you do the maths, it would only represent a 15-20% increase in the current NHS budget.
It would be pretty politically difficult NOT to spend another £350m a week on the nhs/social care budget by the end of the next parliament when you take into account inflation and the ageing population - so whoever gets the tory gig might as well go to the country with it, honouring the pledge as part of their manifesto.
Labour dare not campaign at a snap GE on a promise to ignore voters in their heartlands, so it'd be hilarious if there was such a reversal of opinion - god knows what could cause it - and a couple years after their lowest ebb since the 50s the LDs see hundreds of gains!
Take the mote out of thine own eye ...
Fox jr is looking at working in the Gulf for example.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7a/Ed_Miliband_bacon_sandwich.jpg
or if that doesn't work, there is always his brother
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02661/cringe-milliband-b_2661184b.jpg
But Ed, at 200/1, would be an outstanding choice.
http://gu.com/p/4myt5?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
You may not like to hear this but here goes. As someone who is from immigrant stock, for the first time in my life I feel a sense of unease, a sense of fear and a sense of not being welcome here. I think I contribute positively to this country (e.g. I pay over 30k in taxes every year). I also know that this is a feeling shared with quite a few of my 'immigrant' friends.
You can make snide remarks or call me a traitor or even tell me to piss off but I am going to continue to tell it as it is.
https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/746804391450148865
It's now up to all sides to make this work - ideally by arguing for the EFTA option and supporting those who agree. Immigration is a subject on which we need to have a national debate - let's not beat round the bush - it is a big subject, a lot of people don't like the way the issue has been suppressed. I see it up close and personal in my part of London every day - it's not wholly positive and we need to be honest about the socio-economic downsides.
There's also the not unreasonable point we won't be able to rejoin on the terms we "enjoyed" - the opt outs and the rebates will be gone. We will have to pay up, suck up the Euro and probably Schengen and a raft of other things (I don't actually think that would be the case).
Liberal-minded people pride themselves on their tolerance but you can't force people to tolerate everything in the same of some nebulous concept called freedom of movement. REMAIN treated everyone as an economic drone - work hard, enjoy 1.5% extra GDP growth a year (not that you'll see any of it) and above all don't think too much about how your community is changing, your local services are creaking under the strain and the place you call home is somewhere you don't recognise.
Apparently having those kind of concerns makes you a racist - if that's true, I'm a racist.
1. A party of the big state, collectivism, supranationality, directive, paternalist. Nanny knows best.
2. A party of the individual, recognises people's own views on what they want, instinctively supportive of our own culture and interests.
If Cameron doesn't trigger article 50, and I don't think he will, and if the new Tory leader calls a GE (a few Tory rebels could also cause this) then in won't be so much going back in as not actually leaving that will be the GE question. A GE result would easily trump an advisory referendum. The people will have spoken (again).
And Farron made an excellent pro-Remain stump speech.... proud English, proud British, proud European and so opn. Couple..... even one ...... of similar ones in Parliament might give him a much higher media profile.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/746973392293756936
We have a popular, proven leader you have an unelectable imbecile. Let's swap it around.
I don't care about the referendum result. Its short sighted and stupid but nothing much will change once a deals done. Losing Cameron shows a basic lack of commonsense and an alarming amount of Corbynesque levels of ideology from the right.
Half the shad cab will resign, yet if JC doesn't want to stand down it will the same process as last time, 3-quidders and all - and the 'membership' still thinks that, much like another JC, he can walk on water!
Cameron was going anyway before 2020.
Farron has nothing to lose, however - yes, 30% of LD voters went for Brexit, but even if they held on to most of their current voters the might lose a few seats next time too, and if there is a snap GE, maybe if the Tories or Labour are split there's more they can gain by being all in on Regretexit.
Headline claims were on taxes that:
* 2p increase in basic rate tax
* 3p increase in higher rate tax
* 5p increase in inheritance tax rates
* Alcohol and petrol duties rise by %
And on spending:
* 5% cut on transport, the police and local government
* Spending on the NHS will be "slashed"
* Pension spending cut by £2 billion a year.
£50 at evens says these will not be implemented. Agreed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03zfw9m
and they won't give £350million/week or anything like it to the NHS
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/nigel-farage-350-million-pledge-to-fund-the-nhs-was-a-mistake/
They won on a pack of lies!
The next GE is likely to be before next year, and the specific numbers will be different.
But thanks for playing
The voters, however...
Parroting or a [charitable] proposal for a bet between your-goodself and moi. £50 donation to FATJUGS for the loser...?
This is a real opportunity for Labour if they change leader to say Benn. I have been a defender of Corbyn and I like his refusal to indulge in personal abuse no matter how much provoked. But now is the time for Labour to change leader. It may be that many of Corbyn's supporters in the party membership are beginning to see this too. I don't think it certain that Corbyn will be reelected by the membership.
Burnham was playing football. The referee flipped the coin to decide who kicked off and Burnham called out: Heads, Tails, no Heads, no I mean Tails, Heads it is, or Tails. As the final whistle blew.
More seriously, I believe it would be possible for Corbyn to be leader of the Labour Party and for someone else to be leader of the PLP.
I said it to Leavers complaining about Remain lies before the result, I'll say it now, that might be true, but it's irrelevant. You don't suggest it, but someone will, that a second referendum can be justified on that basis alone, but the fact is both sides debunked what they said were the lies of the opponents, and the people chose.
Doesn't mean it is unacceptable for people to campaign for another vote to make sure, or even that the result be ignored, but because both sides pointed out the lies and the people chose, it's hard for politicians to do either of those things en masse.