Not sure it'll be such a great campaign line by the time we get near a general election!!
As you say, campaigning to rejoin the EU is hardly going to be a vote-winner - particularly if we have to join the euro and so on. And especially if the EU continues in its current sorry state, unable to grapple with major problems. (If they finally get themselves sorted out, it's most likely going to be via tighter integration which will make rejoining even less attractive.)
And by the time the Brexit negotiations are complete, we'll know whether we are going to be in EEA or not. So what is there going to be for the Lib Dems to fight for?
Human Rights? Internationalism? I suppose a lot will depend on where the Labour Party goes now but there's a lot of voters (and politicians) feeling a bit rootless at the moment. Political certainties have been shaken up and it will take a while for it all to settle down. Makes things interesting but hard to predict.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
The Scots have been put on an unalterable trajectory they voted heavily against. The Scottish government has every right to do all it can to protect Scottish interests. If an independence referendum is the best way to do that, so be it. Those who oppose separation can make their case.
Scotland have been on a different path since 1975. Voting differently in nearly every GE since.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Where is Osborne? Has anybody heard from him since Thursday night. Has he gone for a nob interview at Goldman Sachs?
My understanding is that on Friday morning Osborne went straight into doing his job as Chancellor with a meeting with G7 and attempting to limit the fallout from Brexit economically. I would contend that he was in part responsible for that damage with his dire warnings before the vote but he did at least step up to the plate and get on with trying to put right some of the damage he had caused.
There was also a report that, unlike Cameron, is not intending running away and will continue to do his job and to provide stability until he is removed.
I'm feeling hugely optimistic today - the widely billed apocalypse failed to materialise yesterday, there are all kinds of interesting scenarios ahead in the negotiations (and the future of the EU) and domestic politics and for the future.
As a country we have lost our way. People don't know what we stand for any more, people are selfish and introverted, our economy had ground to a halt with no thought beyond the immediate future.
Suddenly we are looking at ourselves and our society and talking about the good and the bad and asking the big questions. We are being forced to think about the medium and long term and what decisions we need to make now. The political and economic establishment has been routed and doesn't know what to do with itself.
Democracy is Revolution. We should be rejoicing. I know I am.
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
Glass? Glass?
When I were a lad we were lucky to half a plastic coke bottle to drink from!
I think we are going through the elation period to now wondering if the establishment is capable of doing a good deal.
I'm feeling hugely optimistic today - the widely billed apocalypse failed to materialise yesterday, there are all kinds of interesting scenarios ahead in the negotiations (and the future of the EU) and domestic politics and for the future.
As a country we have lost our way. People don't know what we stand for any more, people are selfish and introverted, our economy had ground to a halt with no thought beyond the immediate future.
Suddenly we are looking at ourselves and our society and talking about the good and the bad and asking the big questions. We are being forced to think about the medium and long term and what decisions we need to make now. The political and economic establishment has been routed and doesn't know what to do with itself.
Democracy is Revolution. We should be rejoicing. I know I am.
Post of the day!
Look I know the following tweet is three days out of date, but:
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
Glass? Glass?
When I were a lad we were lucky to half a plastic coke bottle to drink from!
I think we are going through the elation period to now wondering if the establishment is capable of doing a good deal.
I suspect that sentiment will echoed time and time again over the coming months and years: Brexit is crap but only because the establishment screwed it up.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
Cameron is staying on as PM for a few months and did not resign immediately after the vote to Leave. So he is doing the responsible thing to have an orderly transition, perhaps on a shorter time frame that initially thought. It's sensible for him to have the Leavers negotiate with the EU. They are already rowing back on their promises to the electorate and Cameron won't want to take the flak for that.
So - I'm looking to reinvest some of my Leave winnings in the Conservative leader market and looking for irrational odds again. In my head, I'm dividing the candidates into 4 sections, Remain/Leave & Prominent/Less Prominent (Ie - at main debates/TV events/Press Conference in ref campaign).
Bearing in mind the historic issues of front runners doing badly in conservative leadership elections, I think the value must be in the "Less Prominent" brackets, but am not very familiar with them - anyone know which are likely to put themselves forward?
(In/Out from Guido's tracker, Prominent/Not based on top 4 I saw in major TV events. List includes everyone on Betfair <1,000/1, in ascending order of odds available, excludes Jesse Norman as undeclared in Ref)
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
Glass? Glass?
When I were a lad we were lucky to half a plastic coke bottle to drink from!
I think we are going through the elation period to now wondering if the establishment is capable of doing a good deal.
I suspect that sentiment will echoed time and time again over the coming months and years: Brexit is crap but only because the establishment screwed it up.
Yep - and we'll hear it from plenty of members of the establishment.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
Titter. Brexit already has the air of a failed experiment about it, and it's only day two.
I can understand the Remains being upset. They did after all repeat every scare story and attack line in slavish fashion despite the utter absurdity of most of it, over the course of months, only to endure ignominious defeat.
But have ANY of them, NorthWales aside, mentioned accepting the result getting on with it, making Britain a success? Nope. They're either still indulging in bitter recrimination, trying to find some comfort in the economic travails of the UK, or fantasising about constitutional chaos. Its very telling. These are the people that were telling us they were just as patriotic as Leavers and had Britain's interests at heart. I'm sure irl they are lovely people, kind to dogs etc., but politically they're simply repulsive.
But what is especially dangerous is they are not accepting responsibility for the millions who voted Leave out of desperation about a political class that will not listen, or even worse says it is listening and does nothing. While I see there are some writers who get it, most don't seem to accept that it's their hardline Europhilia that and stance on migration that is driving people to the margins.
That our entire political and cultural establishment was so uniformally for Remain should be ringing alarm bells.
Cultural perhaps, but not political - did you miss the hundreds of MPs who were for leave, they were establishment too.
Couldn't get more Establishment than Boris, or Gove.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
Hows keeping the CFP in place beneficial to Scotland ? There is no chance of CAP reform unless France agrees it and with the UK gone where's the pressure ?
I don't know if I can answer all those questions. My impression is that Scotland would cut a deal on CFP but it would not be anywhere nearly as bad as the way the UK government threw the industry under the bus. There is likely to be some value to the EU in getting a reduced deal over access to Scotland's EEZ than no deal at all.
so youve naded your fishereies away to get what ?
UK is your biggest trading partner by quite some way. You dont really trade that much with the rest of EU and RoW is more important for industries like whiskey. The Scottish Finance sector can only wither under tight EU legislation.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
If the economy takes off in anything like the way it did after Glorious Black Wednesday in 1992 there will be a lot more than £350 a week to spend.
Bottom line - no-one has a clue on what's going to happen. The Leave campaign promises are unravelling at light-speed. Backtracking is in full flow - you know what, we'll probably end up staying in the EU with a few bones thrown in.
However, it's the individuals who flew the banner of xenophobia and bigotry that I have an issue with. In many ways, Farage is the only one that comes out with any credit - he actually truly believes in xenophobia and bigotry. The others have been disingenuous bastards.
For all the talk about scotland, 1.6 million voted YES and 1.6 million voted to Remain. The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
One quick one would be we pay them a net contribution of say £4 billion and we get free trade, no unlimited migration, no ECJ etc.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
The Scots have been put on an unalterable trajectory they voted heavily against. The Scottish government has every right to do all it can to protect Scottish interests. If an independence referendum is the best way to do that, so be it. Those who oppose separation can make their case.
Very true. Sturgeon's in a tricky position, though. Balancing what is in Scotland's interests with what is in the SNP's interests (not necessarily the same thing) will be tough. Yesterday was an easy win for her, following it through and getting an independent Scotland into the EU on a good deal is much harder than many have assumed. I expect she recognises that and handling the expectations of her supporters is going to be the real test of how good a politician and stateswoman Nicola really is. She's had things pretty easy so far.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
If the economy takes off in anything like the way it did after Glorious Black Wednesday in 1992 there will be a lot more than £350 a week to spend.
Bottom line - no-one has a clue on what's going to happen. The Leave campaign promises are unravelling at light-speed. Backtracking is in full flow - you know what, we'll probably end up staying in the EU with a few bones thrown in.
However, it's the individuals who flew the banner of xenophobia and bigotry that I have an issue with. In many ways, Farage is the only one that comes out with any credit - he actually truly believes in xenophobia and bigotry. The others have been disingenuous bastards.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
Hows keeping the CFP in place beneficial to Scotland ? There is no chance of CAP reform unless France agrees it and with the UK gone where's the pressure ?
I don't know if I can answer all those questions. My impression is that Scotland would cut a deal on CFP but it would not be anywhere nearly as bad as the way the UK government threw the industry under the bus. There is likely to be some value to the EU in getting a reduced deal over access to Scotland's EEZ than no deal at all.
so youve naded your fishereies away to get what ?
UK is your biggest trading partner by quite some way. You dont really trade that much with the rest of EU and RoW is more important for industries like whiskey. The Scottish Finance sector can only wither under tight EU legislation.
Any chance of Edinburgh financial sector doing well at the expense of London if Scotland remains in EU?
For all the talk about scotland, 1.6 million voted YES and 1.6 million voted to Remain. The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
They are not just getting votes as things stand.
They are getting newspapers and media commentators. They are getting SLab. The Tories are muted. The mood is changing rapidly.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
The Scots have been put on an unalterable trajectory they voted heavily against. The Scottish government has every right to do all it can to protect Scottish interests. If an independence referendum is the best way to do that, so be it. Those who oppose separation can make their case.
Very true. Sturgeon's in a tricky position, though. Balancing what is in Scotland's interests with what is in the SNP's interests (not necessarily the same thing) will be tough. Yesterday was an easy win for her, following it through and getting an independent Scotland into the EU on a good deal is much harder than many have assumed. I expect she recognises that and handling the expectations of her supporters is going to be the real test of how good a politician and stateswoman Nicola really is. She's had things pretty easy so far.
I imagine she'll get a fast track commitment from The EU. That should not be too tricky and gets round the Catalonia problem. Spain is not going to vote against EU membership and pull Catalonia out, so there'll be no equivalence for Madrid to worry about.
So - I'm looking to reinvest some of my Leave winnings in the Conservative leader market and looking for irrational odds again. In my head, I'm dividing the candidates into 4 sections, Remain/Leave & Prominent/Less Prominent (Ie - at main debates/TV events/Press Conference in ref campaign).
Bearing in mind the historic issues of front runners doing badly in conservative leadership elections, I think the value must be in the "Less Prominent" brackets, but am not very familiar with them - anyone know which are likely to put themselves forward?
(In/Out from Guido's tracker, Prominent/Not based on top 4 I saw in major TV events. List includes everyone on Betfair <1,000/1, in ascending order of odds available, excludes Jesse Norman as undeclared in Ref)</p>
Please let it be Jacob Rees-Mogg, I could do with some merriment.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
Titter. Brexit already has the air of a failed experiment about it, and it's only day two.
Immigration doubling becsuse our elected government has seen fit to double it is one thing.If they do it in the teeth of public opinion theyncan be be booted out after 5 years max.
Immigration doubling because unelected foreign bureaucrats say so and our elected government does not have the power to stop them is another thing entirely
The issue is sovereignty. The current immigration issue illustrates to the man on the clapham omnibus in a crystally clear way why loss of sovereignty is a grave matter.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
For all the talk about scotland, 1.6 million voted YES and 1.6 million voted to Remain. The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
They are not just getting votes as things stand.
They are getting newspapers and media commentators. They are getting SLab. The Tories are muted. The mood is changing rapidly.
Yep, that Daily Record front page is so significant.
Just heard from a friend who manages a site of national heritage. He's very depressed because it relies heavily on EU grants to make it a viable concern. Of course, no one pretends it could ever fund itself: it's just one of those things that is nice to have and which the country would be a little poorer without. I told him to stop being silly and that the UK government would redress the balance because it said so on the side of that bus. Let's just say he sounded unconvinced.
I think the proper solution will be to match every EU grant, or EU subsidy presently given, by the UK government. It would still be a net gain of a couple of billion a year.
That way no one is going to materially lose anything, N.I., scotland, the arts and film would still get their money.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
Hows keeping the CFP in place beneficial to Scotland ? There is no chance of CAP reform unless France agrees it and with the UK gone where's the pressure ?
I don't know if I can answer all those questions. My impression is that Scotland would cut a deal on CFP but it would not be anywhere nearly as bad as the way the UK government threw the industry under the bus. There is likely to be some value to the EU in getting a reduced deal over access to Scotland's EEZ than no deal at all.
so youve naded your fishereies away to get what ?
UK is your biggest trading partner by quite some way. You dont really trade that much with the rest of EU and RoW is more important for industries like whiskey. The Scottish Finance sector can only wither under tight EU legislation.
Any chance of Edinburgh financial sector doing well at the expense of London if Scotland remains in EU?
Will probably be too late. City companies already moving staff to Frankfurt by all accounts.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
The Scots have been put on an unalterable trajectory they voted heavily against. The Scottish government has every right to do all it can to protect Scottish interests. If an independence referendum is the best way to do that, so be it. Those who oppose separation can make their case.
Very true. Sturgeon's in a tricky position, though. Balancing what is in Scotland's interests with what is in the SNP's interests (not necessarily the same thing) will be tough. Yesterday was an easy win for her, following it through and getting an independent Scotland into the EU on a good deal is much harder than many have assumed. I expect she recognises that and handling the expectations of her supporters is going to be the real test of how good a politician and stateswoman Nicola really is. She's had things pretty easy so far.
For a party to have "its own interests" and by this I take it you mean a platform for careerists, then it has to be long enough established as a viable option for careerists. The SNP has at best had this option since 1999 and in reality since 2007. That's not long enough established.
The SNP is still in the position where most of its members and a significant number of its hierarchy have absolutely no problem with the party ceasing to exist once the goal of Independence is achieved.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
If the economy takes off in anything like the way it did after Glorious Black Wednesday in 1992 there will be a lot more than £350 a week to spend.
For all the talk about scotland, 1.6 million voted YES and 1.6 million voted to Remain. The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
Would like to know how many of the 'new' members are those who joined after the referendum but who subsequently allowed their membership to lapse.
The CFP would collapse without Scotland, with 30% of the EUs fishing waters in the Scottish EEZ. While not huge overall, it is very important to Spain. A CFP collapse might bring additional pressure on CAP reform - as I see things, Spain does not appear to benefit much from CAP (it would have a strong competitive advantage in a free Agricultural market) and its advantages in CFP are a sop to keep them happy.
Hows keeping the CFP in place beneficial to Scotland ? There is no chance of CAP reform unless France agrees it and with the UK gone where's the pressure ?
I don't know if I can answer all those questions. My impression is that Scotland would cut a deal on CFP but it would not be anywhere nearly as bad as the way the UK government threw the industry under the bus. There is likely to be some value to the EU in getting a reduced deal over access to Scotland's EEZ than no deal at all.
so youve naded your fishereies away to get what ?
UK is your biggest trading partner by quite some way. You dont really trade that much with the rest of EU and RoW is more important for industries like whiskey. The Scottish Finance sector can only wither under tight EU legislation.
Any chance of Edinburgh financial sector doing well at the expense of London if Scotland remains in EU?
How is Scotland going to withstand the Financial Transaction Tax? How are they going to influence G20 legislation like Basel? Why would people relocate to Edinburgh on the far north of the European continent when they could relocate to Paris or Frankfurt or Dublin instead? What happens when Scotland's in the Euro and there's another banking crash?
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
Cameron is staying on as PM for a few months and did not resign immediately after the vote to Leave. So he is doing the responsible thing to have an orderly transition, perhaps on a shorter time frame that initially thought. It's sensible for him to have the Leavers negotiate with the EU. They are already rowing back on their promises to the electorate and Cameron won't want to take the flak for that.
Yes I agree, especially that it should be done on a much shorter time frame. Why should we have to wait for the Tory party conference, start the process now.
For all the talk about scotland, 1.6 million voted YES and 1.6 million voted to Remain. The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
Voting Yes to the EU from within the UK is also different to voting YES to the EU after being removed from the UK because there are various differences.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
Fair enough if that's what you think, but it hasn't taken long to find out we couldn't believe a word Leave said either...and there's still a chance Dave and George weren't so far out.
They - like the Scottish LibDems I expect - will have no choice other than to switch sides for Sindy2. The space for running the No campaign belongs to Davidson (and even she appears to be considering a break with the English Tory party).
SLab is already over to be honest. Funnily, if not unexpectedly, Kezia Dugdale is again behind the curve and has been trotting out pro-Union statements while behind her back the remaining rats are scurrying into the Independence camp.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
One quick one would be we pay them a net contribution of say £4 billion and we get free trade, no unlimited migration, no ECJ etc.
So that's £80m of the £350m a week NHS fund gone already!
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Yes, the immigration thing has been comprehensively kicked into the long grass. As a previous poster said, there's actually a political case for the Tories to increase it, thereby rubbing the working class's noses in diversity and shoving them off to UKIP.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
The Scots have been put on an unalterable trajectory they voted heavily against. The Scottish government has every right to do all it can to protect Scottish interests. If an independence referendum is the best way to do that, so be it. Those who oppose separation can make their case.
Very true. Sturgeon's in a tricky position, though. Balancing what is in Scotland's interests with what is in the SNP's interests (not necessarily the same thing) will be tough. Yesterday was an easy win for her, following it through and getting an independent Scotland into the EU on a good deal is much harder than many have assumed. I expect she recognises that and handling the expectations of her supporters is going to be the real test of how good a politician and stateswoman Nicola really is. She's had things pretty easy so far.
For a party to have "its own interests" and by this I take it you mean a platform for careerists, then it has to be long enough established as a viable option for careerists. The SNP has at best had this option since 1999 and in reality since 2007. That's not long enough established.
The SNP is still in the position where most of its members and a significant number of its hierarchy have absolutely no problem with the party ceasing to exist once the goal of Independence is achieved.
By its own interests I mean independence. The SNP believes, of course, that independence is in the best interests of Scotland and should be achieved whatever the short term cost (rather like many Leavers). That's certainly a principled position but while the SNP may be prepared to use anger at the EU vote to garner more support for independence, the EU is of secondary importance to them, it's a means of achieving independence. Not everyone will see it like that in Scotland and many will make an assessment of whether remaking in the UK or being in the EU under potentially worse terms than before is better.
Nicola's reaction to the UK EUref result reminds me of some of the more hard-line Unionists' reaction to NI's Good Friday Agreement result back in 1998.
The similarity being that their "side" or "community" hadn't voted for the winning side.
So in the Unionists' case, it was "a majority of the Unionist people didn't endorse the GFA", despite a majority ACROSS the whole of NI, while in Nicola's case currently, it's "a majority of the Scottish people didn't endorse Brexit", despite a majority across the UK as a whole.
Remember, we voted in EURef as the UK as a whole, all 45 million of us voters.
The Scots have been put on an unalterable trajectory they voted heavily against. The Scottish government has every right to do all it can to protect Scottish interests. If an independence referendum is the best way to do that, so be it. Those who oppose separation can make their case.
Very true. Sturgeon's in a tricky position, though. Balancing what is in Scotland's interests with what is in the SNP's interests (not necessarily the same thing) will be tough. Yesterday was an easy win for her, following it through and getting an independent Scotland into the EU on a good deal is much harder than many have assumed. I expect she recognises that and handling the expectations of her supporters is going to be the real test of how good a politician and stateswoman Nicola really is. She's had things pretty easy so far.
For a party to have "its own interests" and by this I take it you mean a platform for careerists, then it has to be long enough established as a viable option for careerists. The SNP has at best had this option since 1999 and in reality since 2007. That's not long enough established.
The SNP is still in the position where most of its members and a significant number of its hierarchy have absolutely no problem with the party ceasing to exist once the goal of Independence is achieved.
and the average age of most full-time political advisors/bag carriers/lobbyists/agents is?
They - like the Scottish LibDems I expect - will have no choice other than to switch sides for Sindy2. The space for running the No campaign belongs to Davidson (and even she appears to be considering a break with the English Tory party).
Doubt there'll be much of a campaign. It will be more of a procession.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Yes, the immigration thing has been comprehensively kicked into the long grass. As a previous poster said, there's actually a political case for the Tories to increase it, thereby rubbing the working class's noses in diversity and shoving them off to UKIP.
If I were Tory I would rather keep Labour as my main opponent.
Better the devil, and all. The Tories already fear the LibDems more than Labour (and think they've sorted this) and UKIP more than the LibDems (hence how we got the referendum in the first place).
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Yes, the immigration thing has been comprehensively kicked into the long grass. As a previous poster said, there's actually a political case for the Tories to increase it, thereby rubbing the working class's noses in diversity and shoving them off to UKIP.
Yep, and the people who campaigned for Leave to "control" immigration will be revealed as the useful idiots they were for Boris's leadership campaign.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
They - like the Scottish LibDems I expect - will have no choice other than to switch sides for Sindy2. The space for running the No campaign belongs to Davidson (and even she appears to be considering a break with the English Tory party).
Davidson appears to have gone into hiding. Most likely she is seeing some rumblings within the party and taking pause to consider. On the other hand Dugdale is still harping on about staying in the UK even though it is much clearer that SLab are changing sides.
Dugdale really is a clueless numpty, well out of her depth.
That's the worst thing about Brexit. Forgot the economic ruin and the damage to the lives of millions, we're going to have to deal with French smugness about our mistake.
Anyone know when the People's Republic of Brighton & Hove will break away and form their own country within the EU?
After all, they voted to Remain and they are forced to Leave the EU against their will.
Not just Brighton and Hove, but all the way from Lewes, through Guildford, Winchester, Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Cotswold to Stroud there's a connected area which I suggest is called 'Remainia'. There are also outlying islands of Tunbridge Wells, St Albans and Cambridgeshire.
At the last election Cameron stated that if re-elected he would serve a full term as Prime Minister. In the course of the Referendum campaign he indicated that in the event of a Leave vote he would activate Article 50 immediately. Throughout the campaign – and as recently as last weekend – Cameron said that he intended to remain Prime Minister whether the result proved to be Remain or Leave. In view of his resignation statement yesterday there is surely overwhelming evidence of his compulsive aversion to telling the truth. Ditto Osborne – when will he be announcing he date of his Emergency Budget? I suggest that the pair have revealed themselves to be barefaced liars who were consistent only in the sheer contempt that they showed towards their own people.
Agreed. But Cameron was obviously lying when he said (a) he was going to remain as PM but (b) it was up to the Leave campaign to set out the post-Brexit policy. It never made any sense and now we know just how disingenuous it was (feel free to replace disingenuous with your own choice of language!)
When we look back and analyse what Cameron/Osborne have said and done - things look very disingenuous indeed. And for a long time.
I don't blame Cameron for resigning - his position was unsustainable after losing. And an awful lot of us didn't believe a word he or George said anymore.
We are all now looking forward to an extra £350 million a week being spent on the NHS, higher wages, cheaper housing, more jobs, no tax rises and substantially lower levels of immigration.
If the economy takes off in anything like the way it did after Glorious Black Wednesday in 1992 there will be a lot more than £350 a week to spend.
Personally if we were to end up in a partner like deal with the EU, separate from it but facing some costs in exchange for some goodies, I could be happy with that, depending on the details, and Boris and co too no doubt.
But any deal which doesn't massively reduce immigration would surely face difficulty with the public (and would risk being rejected if it did get put to the public)?
One quick one would be we pay them a net contribution of say £4 billion and we get free trade, no unlimited migration, no ECJ etc.
Exactly.
Notice how our guys are relaxed at home, theirs are bouncing up and down in brussels demanding we send the article 50 letter.
Our stock market is up on the week, theirs have crashed.
F*** them. Sit on the article 50 letter, dither and dather, let their ecomomy go to pot, let them feel the pain greece has felt and we felt in the ERM.
Let the PIGS crises worsen and then let them stare down the barrel of doom.
Then send the letter, tell them our terms, tell them they can accept them and have £4 billion a year market access payment or we can let jt drag on for months.
Now that I’ve gone through the Kubler-Ross grieving process following the result to Leave, I’ve made my peace with it and am excited by the situation we now find ourselves in.
This is the William Glenn plan for what we should do next:
It’s clear that most of the Leavers are now in a similar state of denial about the implications for keeping the UK together. They need to get over it. The die is cast and we need to act to ensure the break up is as smooth and painless as possible.
Anyone still dreaming of keeping Scotland in the UK needs to be kept far away from the strategy team for Brexit. It is not in the interests of England and Wales to do anything other than support Scotland’s bid to become an independent member state within the EU.
Furthermore it is in the interests of England and Wales for Ireland to be peacefully reunified. We need to accelerate this process and provide all feasible reassurances to the unionist community but make it clear that the ‘British’ state is no longer neutral, but an active supporter of unification.
Beyond this, we need to consider what the interests of England and Wales are. It’s becoming clear than the Article 50 process, and our control over when to trigger it, gives us immense power to shape the direction of travel. We should use this to lead the kind of renegotiation that many were expecting from Cameron - fundamental and far-reaching, to create a two-tier Europe. As a result of this, a new settlement should be proposed, and a new deal put to the voters of England and Wales in a second referendum.
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
I would sing but I have a terrible singing voice.
Yesterday was the happiest day of my life but I was mind-achingly tired.
Now I'm fully rested, this is going to be the happiest non-tired day of my life.
It was a great day. I am exhilarated. It was brilliant. I am thousands of pounds worse off. I don't care. It was great.
I don't want to be too in-your-face jubilant because it suggests - to all those people who thought very seriously and carefully before they voted "Remain" - that I am glad they lost, haha. That isn't at all the case. I am just very happy, for myself and for my country.
The thing I loved most of all was the festival of democracy and the millions of people who did not feel they had a voice who finally got their chance at the ballot box. If it is any consolation to those who are fearful or angry that the wrong decision has been made, the thing that makes me second-happiest is simply that a decision has been made. Had I voted in vain at the referendum, I would still have taken solace from these two facts.
For all the talk about scotland, 1.6 million voted YES and 1.6 million voted to Remain. The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
Voting Yes to the EU from within the UK is also different to voting YES to the EU after being removed from the UK because there are various differences.
If that was a priority then turnout in scotland would not have been one of the lowest in the country. That's why I smell that the EU ideologues are getting out of touch, if all those who voted Remain vote for Yes they would lose by the same amount as in 2014 again.
We have had wasted decades - going back to Thatcher's "no, no, no" to the single currency - of strategic drift. Locked in uncomfortable semi-detachment to a project whose core aims were different to our own. We held them back and the tugged us forward, and ultimately that was to the detriment of both us and our partners. We did not share their polity. We did not share their dreams. We did not share their destiny. But in our little ways, we have impeded them from reaching theirs. At the same time, there has been a deep tension in our politics about our geostrategic direction. How are we to face the world?
We now know, in broad brushstrokes, the answer to that question and we can work towards it. For those who are afraid that a Leave vote has revealed the dark underbelly of Anglo-Welsh character - xenophobic, closed and hateful - I can provide the limited comfort that I didn't vote as I did out of hatred to immigrants. Immigration hardly figured for me - though I welcome the opportunity it gives for a more targeted system, better planned and more fair to applicants from outside the EU. Obviously migration was a major issue for millions of other Leave voters. But those who I talked to were concerned about "numbers" and "control", not trying to shut the country off entirely - and if you don't find their concerns reasonable, perhaps you should try living (as I have done) in places demographically transformed by the 2004 and 2007 accessions. Moreover, to the extent that there are hateful immigrant-bashers out there, they hold hardly any sway in parliament. The future extent of our polity is unknown - what happens to Scotland is for the Scots to decide - but its outlook is going to be global, outward-looking and cooperative with European neighbours on matters of mutual concern, without being trapped tensely in a body set on a different course to our own.
That may not have been your favoured vision of our future, but I hope you can welcome the clarity. For me, it represents the best conceivable outcome. I was afraid that my fearful compatriots would vote out driven by intimidation, but they did not fluff their lines and we took our chance in a lifetime. I am proud of them. And delighted. It was a great day.
And just to reiterate, I am exhilarated and ecstatic.
That's the worst thing about Brexit. Forgot the economic ruin and the damage to the lives of millions, we're going to have to deal with French smugness about our mistake.
There has ever been a time the French haven't been smug?
Thinking about it, Scotland's independence is workable, but the timing is critical. The SNP need to win a referendum quickly and ask for accelerated accession negotiations with the EU, so that Scotland's accession is coordinated with the rUK's exit. As Scotland already has the laws and systems in place, the only issue is an existing reserve bank and currency, but perhaps they will be worked around in the very special circumstances.
The fiscal deficit and the end of Barnett, is easily, if painfully dealt with: Scotland needs to cut back on public spending. The loss of the UK single market is a BIG problem as before, but this time there is a compensation: UK firms who need a presence in the EU can look north. In particular Edinburgh should pick up a chunk of business from London because Scotland will be part of the financial passport.
However, it gets much messier if the whole of the UK leaves the EU first and Scotland has to negotiate from outside the EU. If you are an English or Welsh Unionist and don't want to see Scotland go, get cracking on Article 50, or, just possibly, decide not to go ahead with Brexit
That's the worst thing about Brexit. Forgot the economic ruin and the damage to the lives of millions, we're going to have to deal with French smugness about our mistake.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
The death of the UK is hugely sad.
It is. If only there had been warnings from people we could believe and not just experts.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
Good God. Independence entails austerity on a Greek scale and being severed from their most important market (the UK). EU membership will depend on the long and complex accession procedures and will result in a much worse deal than the one they enjoyed as part of the UK. Queen as head of state might happen, but the SNP have always been a republican party. And they can't join the Euro immediately, so they'll have to set up a new currency and plough money into pegging it to the pound.
I know the Leave camp over-stated their case somewhat, but if the SNP get an independence vote on this manifesto there are going to be a lot of angry Scots when reality comes knocking.
Thinking about it, Scotland's independence is workable, but the timing is critical. The SNP need to win a referendum quickly and ask for accelerated accession negotiations with the EU, so that Scotland's accession is coordinated with the rUK's exit. As Scotland already has the laws and systems in place, the only issue is an existing reserve bank and currency, but perhaps they will be worked around in the very special circumstances.
Nope. Scotland also lacks the regulatory framework for public broadcasting, enforcement and administrative capacities for taxation, and a competition authority.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
I can't think myself Scottish but to the extent that I can I'd vote for that. This is a double bereavement for me. Both my Europeaness AND my Britishness will be taken from me in me referendum.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Possibly, but that doesn't resolve the issues that caused the Ref to fail last time. The key ones being...
* Economy based on oil - even worse than before.
* Currency: Euro will leave their finances under control of Brussels. Scottish £ under control of Westminster (with no MPs to influence).
Their trade with England and RoW is far more important to them than Europe, therefore once everyone calms down, Sindy#2 is likely to be No again.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Afternoon Jack. Hope you are feeling a wee bit better?
Jack W and MalcG supporting Scottish independence... What amazing times we live in!
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
For all the talk about scotland, 1.6 million voted YES and 1.6 million voted to Remain. The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
Voting Yes to the EU from within the UK is also different to voting YES to the EU after being removed from the UK because there are various differences.
If that was a priority then turnout in scotland would not have been one of the lowest in the country. That's why I smell that the EU ideologues are getting out of touch, if all those who voted Remain vote for Yes they would lose by the same amount as in 2014 again.
The SNP has been inundated with messages from No voters saying they would now vote Yes. Remember EU membership was a key plank of the No campaign.
I see Matthew Elliot , the Chief Exec of Vote Leave , is now also saying the deal should be done *before* Article 50 is invoked. The deal including a budget contribution and single market access. They never gave a toss about immigration. It was always about sovereignty and winning.
Beyond this, we need to consider what the interests of England and Wales are. It’s becoming clear than the Article 50 process, and our control over when to trigger it, gives us immense power to shape the direction of travel. We should use this to lead the kind of renegotiation that many were expecting from Cameron - fundamental and far-reaching, to create a two-tier Europe. As a result of this, a new settlement should be proposed, and a new deal put to the voters of England and Wales in a second referendum.
Plus being a country with "And" in its name implies its a tropical paradise.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
Personally, after Independence, I would vote No on joining the EU under new member terms. If it was on a transfer of the UK deal, I might consider Yes but would probably still vote No.
Were I PM, and Scotland voted out of the UK and out of the EU, the only thing I could see changing is cross border tax subsidy.
Public sector jobs would move south, but I'm not sure I'd argue that was bad for Scotland.
I would expect Scotland to want to be in a common free trade area, possibly a customs union. If I were PM that would be nailed on.
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
and once again, politics will trump process. The only question is what the UK parties (aka Tories) will have to lose by blocking it. Reputation, certainly. Davidson, probably. But who knows what the general state of things will be by then, anyway?
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Welcome back - glad you're on the mend.
I'm sure jokes about your ARSE taking a pounding the other night have already been made!
How can Sturgeon call a referendum? Isn't it a competency of Westminster... in which case all of it is hogwash.
We are either democrats or we're not. A major, material change has occured. If Scots want to become independent as a result we have absolutely no right to stop them.
The vote was once in a generation - the referendum was announced in 2013 before their 2014 vote. They knew this could happen when they voted to stay.
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
I'm sure jokes about your ARSE taking a pounding the other night have already been made!
Is Sturgeon intending Scotland to vote out then apply to the EU without a referendum, or will Scotland be asked separately? The outcome in that case would seem assured, but the mechanics interest me.
I think SINDY2 will come as a package. YES includes independence, EU membership, Queen as head of state and either the Euro or Scottish £ tied to the old rUK£.
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Possibly, but that doesn't resolve the issues that caused the Ref to fail last time. The key ones being...
* Economy based on oil - even worse than before.
* Currency: Euro will leave their finances under control of Brussels. Scottish £ under control of Westminster (with no MPs to influence).
Their trade with England and RoW is far more important to them than Europe, therefore once everyone calms down, Sindy#2 is likely to be No again.
Last time it was Stablility versus Gamble
Sturgeon's genius will be to position INDY as "Stability within the EU" versus England's "Even Bigger Gamble".
From reading some of moribund posts on here you'd actually think Leave had lost. I know Leavers are by nature glass-half-empty people, but this is depressing. Rejoice! Come on. I want to hear some singing.
I would sing but I have a terrible singing voice.
Yesterday was the happiest day of my life but I was mind-achingly tired.
Now I'm fully rested, this is going to be the happiest non-tired day of my life.
It was a great day. I am exhilarated. It was brilliant. I am thousands of pounds worse off. I don't care. It was great.
I don't want to be too in-your-face jubilant because it suggests - to all those people who thought very seriously and carefully before they voted "Remain" - that I am glad they lost, haha. That isn't at all the case. I am just very happy, for myself and for my country.
The thing I loved most of all was the festival of democracy and the millions of people who did not feel they had a voice who finally got their chance at the ballot box. If it is any consolation to those who are fearful or angry that the wrong decision has been made, the thing that makes me second-happiest is simply that a decision has been made. Had I voted in vain at the referendum, I would still have taken solace from these two facts.
What country are you happy for? Not the UK, obviously. It's about to end.
Thinking about it, that really would be a body blow to the establishment. And so very much a positive thing. A new England. Someone wrote a song about that once.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · 10s11 seconds ago The @Daily_Express has been a true #Brexit hero, in the finest tradition of that patriotic paper. I'm proud to be in a photo on p.10 today.
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Not sure it'll be such a great campaign line by the time we get near a general election!!
As you say, campaigning to rejoin the EU is hardly going to be a vote-winner - particularly if we have to join the euro and so on. And especially if the EU continues in its current sorry state, unable to grapple with major problems. (If they finally get themselves sorted out, it's most likely going to be via tighter integration which will make rejoining even less attractive.)
And by the time the Brexit negotiations are complete, we'll know whether we are going to be in EEA or not. So what is there going to be for the Lib Dems to fight for?
Human Rights? Internationalism? I suppose a lot will depend on where the Labour Party goes now but there's a lot of voters (and politicians) feeling a bit rootless at the moment. Political certainties have been shaken up and it will take a while for it all to settle down. Makes things interesting but hard to predict.
When I were a lad we were lucky to half a plastic coke bottle to drink from!
I think we are going through the elation period to now wondering if the establishment is capable of doing a good deal.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/745787573952458752
Bearing in mind the historic issues of front runners doing badly in conservative leadership elections, I think the value must be in the "Less Prominent" brackets, but am not very familiar with them - anyone know which are likely to put themselves forward?
1) Prominent Leave campaign leaders:
Johnson, Leadsom, Gove, Patel
2) Less Prominent Leave campaigners:
Raab, Davies, Fox, , Grayling, Brady, Rees-Mogg, Mordaunt, Villiers, Afriyie, Goldsmith, Wharton, Kwarteng
3) Prominent Remain
May, Osbourne, Javid, Rudd
4) Less Prominent Remain
Crabb, Hammond, Morgan, Harper, Hind, Soubry, Stewart, Hunt, Truss, Clark, Fallon
(In/Out from Guido's tracker, Prominent/Not based on top 4 I saw in major TV events. List includes everyone on Betfair <1,000/1, in ascending order of odds available, excludes Jesse Norman as undeclared in Ref)
UK is your biggest trading partner by quite some way. You dont really trade that much with the rest of EU and RoW is more important for industries like whiskey. The Scottish Finance sector can only wither under tight EU legislation.
However, it's the individuals who flew the banner of xenophobia and bigotry that I have an issue with. In many ways, Farage is the only one that comes out with any credit - he actually truly believes in xenophobia and bigotry. The others have been disingenuous bastards.
The SNP cannot be sure they will get many extra votes from this.
https://twitter.com/MalcolmChishol1/status/746657765389631488
They are getting newspapers and media commentators. They are getting SLab. The Tories are muted. The mood is changing rapidly.
Anyone know when the People's Republic of Brighton & Hove will break away and form their own country within the EU?
After all, they voted to Remain and they are forced to Leave the EU against their will.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/banker-bonuses-have-nowhere-to-hide-under-eu-s-final-pay-rules
Immigration doubling because unelected foreign bureaucrats say so and our elected government does not have the power to stop them is another thing entirely
The issue is sovereignty. The current immigration issue illustrates to the man on the clapham omnibus in a crystally clear way why loss of sovereignty is a grave matter.
It would still be a net gain of a couple of billion a year.
That way no one is going to materially lose anything, N.I., scotland, the arts and film would still get their money.
The SNP is still in the position where most of its members and a significant number of its hierarchy have absolutely no problem with the party ceasing to exist once the goal of Independence is achieved.
https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
"Early reports are that Remain are ahead 55-60%"
An old Unionist friend e-mailed me after my comment this morning. He and his wife have come round to an independent Scotland. The political tectonic plates are shifting north of the border. Scotland will become independent in short measure. Scots are usually rightly outraged by a short measure but not now and not by this particular one.
I shall support the prospect. BREXIT will ensure SCEXIT.
Better the devil, and all. The Tories already fear the LibDems more than Labour (and think they've sorted this) and UKIP more than the LibDems (hence how we got the referendum in the first place).
Dugdale really is a clueless numpty, well out of her depth.
There are also outlying islands of Tunbridge Wells, St Albans and Cambridgeshire.
Notice how our guys are relaxed at home, theirs are bouncing up and down in brussels demanding we send the article 50 letter.
Our stock market is up on the week, theirs have crashed.
F*** them. Sit on the article 50 letter, dither and dather, let their ecomomy go to pot, let them feel the pain greece has felt and we felt in the ERM.
Let the PIGS crises worsen and then let them stare down the barrel of doom.
Then send the letter, tell them our terms, tell them they can accept them and have £4 billion a year market access payment or we can let jt drag on for months.
They will sign.
This is the William Glenn plan for what we should do next:
It’s clear that most of the Leavers are now in a similar state of denial about the implications for keeping the UK together. They need to get over it. The die is cast and we need to act to ensure the break up is as smooth and painless as possible.
Anyone still dreaming of keeping Scotland in the UK needs to be kept far away from the strategy team for Brexit. It is not in the interests of England and Wales to do anything other than support Scotland’s bid to become an independent member state within the EU.
Furthermore it is in the interests of England and Wales for Ireland to be peacefully reunified. We need to accelerate this process and provide all feasible reassurances to the unionist community but make it clear that the ‘British’ state is no longer neutral, but an active supporter of unification.
Beyond this, we need to consider what the interests of England and Wales are. It’s becoming clear than the Article 50 process, and our control over when to trigger it, gives us immense power to shape the direction of travel. We should use this to lead the kind of renegotiation that many were expecting from Cameron - fundamental and far-reaching, to create a two-tier Europe. As a result of this, a new settlement should be proposed, and a new deal put to the voters of England and Wales in a second referendum.
Yesterday was the happiest day of my life but I was mind-achingly tired.
Now I'm fully rested, this is going to be the happiest non-tired day of my life.
It was a great day. I am exhilarated. It was brilliant. I am thousands of pounds worse off. I don't care. It was great.
I don't want to be too in-your-face jubilant because it suggests - to all those people who thought very seriously and carefully before they voted "Remain" - that I am glad they lost, haha. That isn't at all the case. I am just very happy, for myself and for my country.
The thing I loved most of all was the festival of democracy and the millions of people who did not feel they had a voice who finally got their chance at the ballot box. If it is any consolation to those who are fearful or angry that the wrong decision has been made, the thing that makes me second-happiest is simply that a decision has been made. Had I voted in vain at the referendum, I would still have taken solace from these two facts.
That's why I smell that the EU ideologues are getting out of touch, if all those who voted Remain vote for Yes they would lose by the same amount as in 2014 again.
We now know, in broad brushstrokes, the answer to that question and we can work towards it. For those who are afraid that a Leave vote has revealed the dark underbelly of Anglo-Welsh character - xenophobic, closed and hateful - I can provide the limited comfort that I didn't vote as I did out of hatred to immigrants. Immigration hardly figured for me - though I welcome the opportunity it gives for a more targeted system, better planned and more fair to applicants from outside the EU. Obviously migration was a major issue for millions of other Leave voters. But those who I talked to were concerned about "numbers" and "control", not trying to shut the country off entirely - and if you don't find their concerns reasonable, perhaps you should try living (as I have done) in places demographically transformed by the 2004 and 2007 accessions. Moreover, to the extent that there are hateful immigrant-bashers out there, they hold hardly any sway in parliament. The future extent of our polity is unknown - what happens to Scotland is for the Scots to decide - but its outlook is going to be global, outward-looking and cooperative with European neighbours on matters of mutual concern, without being trapped tensely in a body set on a different course to our own.
That may not have been your favoured vision of our future, but I hope you can welcome the clarity. For me, it represents the best conceivable outcome. I was afraid that my fearful compatriots would vote out driven by intimidation, but they did not fluff their lines and we took our chance in a lifetime. I am proud of them. And delighted. It was a great day.
And just to reiterate, I am exhilarated and ecstatic.
The fiscal deficit and the end of Barnett, is easily, if painfully dealt with: Scotland needs to cut back on public spending. The loss of the UK single market is a BIG problem as before, but this time there is a compensation: UK firms who need a presence in the EU can look north. In particular Edinburgh should pick up a chunk of business from London because Scotland will be part of the financial passport.
However, it gets much messier if the whole of the UK leaves the EU first and Scotland has to negotiate from outside the EU. If you are an English or Welsh Unionist and don't want to see Scotland go, get cracking on Article 50, or, just possibly, decide not to go ahead with Brexit
https://twitter.com/howgilb/status/746635713215668225
I know the Leave camp over-stated their case somewhat, but if the SNP get an independence vote on this manifesto there are going to be a lot of angry Scots when reality comes knocking. Nope. Scotland also lacks the regulatory framework for public broadcasting, enforcement and administrative capacities for taxation, and a competition authority.
Possibly, but that doesn't resolve the issues that caused the Ref to fail last time. The key ones being...
* Economy based on oil - even worse than before.
* Currency: Euro will leave their finances under control of Brussels. Scottish £ under control of Westminster (with no MPs to influence).
Their trade with England and RoW is far more important to them than Europe, therefore once everyone calms down, Sindy#2 is likely to be No again.
Jack W and MalcG supporting Scottish independence... What amazing times we live in!
https://twitter.com/AidanKerrPol/status/746678816962056192
Public sector jobs would move south, but I'm not sure I'd argue that was bad for Scotland.
I would expect Scotland to want to be in a common free trade area, possibly a customs union. If I were PM that would be nailed on.
I'm sure jokes about your ARSE taking a pounding the other night have already been made!
Sturgeon's genius will be to position INDY as "Stability within the EU" versus England's "Even Bigger Gamble".
Thinking about it, that really would be a body blow to the establishment. And so very much a positive thing. A new England. Someone wrote a song about that once.
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa · 10s11 seconds ago
The @Daily_Express has been a true #Brexit hero, in the finest tradition of that patriotic paper. I'm proud to be in a photo on p.10 today.