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  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.

    That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

    No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

    Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

    Exactly right. He should go and go now.
    How do you think that will happen?

    We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

    Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
    It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
    It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
    A sack of shit would not do worse than Corbyn.
    Except the Remain Campaign DID just do worse than Corbyn, and the Remain Campaign was steered by the "moderate" Labour MPs....

    Because Corbyn would not lead, even though he is supposed to be Labour leader and Labour policy was and is to remain in the EU.

    In Corbyn-land, of course, it is OK for the leader to oppose any Labour policy he likes.

    Well, Labour certainly "led" in the anti-independence campaign in Scotland, but that still didn't do very much to convince (former) Labour voters to fall in line.

    I think the idea that Labour voters would've gone a different way if only they'd been given instructions from their leader is very patronising. The WWC were not going to vote for Remain, no matter which politicians were selling it or how "passionately" they sold it. The issue therefore is which politicians have astute enough judgement to have foreseen that Remain was going to lose -- and on that score, all the Labour "moderates" have failed dismally.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Errr i think it'll be much less. It's Euro or bust!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    Jobabob said:

    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    The plot thickens. If this pair pull this off – Ukip destroyed, Labour irreparably split, the europhile wing of the Tory party smashed, Cameron removed, EFTA – well, well... it's genius.
    I keep banging on about this, but the EEA really, really won't work. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, uncontrolled immigration and cost - the three things that covered the Leave campaign. In addition it deletes the principle of pooled sovereignty that is behind membership of any international organisation: obligations in exchange for influencing policy.

    It's an attractive option for the reasons you give, and also to the EU, I suspect. But at what point will the implications dawn on people?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Why? And it's not up to him anyway. All he can is advise about the likely consequences.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,548
    Anyone else starting to suffer? This afternoon will be hard....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,077
    Will a future Scots referendum be the first non-independence independence referendum?

    "We want freedom! (Well, not from Brussels)"

    Sturgeon might find that a harder sell than she thinks.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    "Sturgeon says she has talked to London Mayor Sadiq Khan who shares her views about London’s place in the EU."

    Far from a joke or a pipedream, the London-Scotland axis is already developing.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    They can still be ruled by Westminster then? :D
    I think the capital would be in the northern sector.
  • GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Carney? He's yesterday's man. He'll be out soon enough with Cameron and Osborne...
    True. He sacked himself.
  • Hello, hello, hello... Echo, echo, echo... Echo Chamber, chamber, chamber...

    I came for the experts... and found I already knew more than them, them, them...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Why would he? How does that effect Scotland's mandatory period of ERM II, they can't join that unless they have their own currency.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Errr i think it'll be much less. It's Euro or bust!
    I think you'll find this time he'll be sympathetic...
  • Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Suez on Steroids.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    Will a future Scots referendum be the first non-independence independence referendum?

    "We want freedom! (Well, not from Brussels)"

    Sturgeon might find that a harder sell than she thinks.

    If the UK ends up with EEA membership or similar, I reckon a second Scottish referendum will result in a lower Independence vote than the first.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,705

    Anyone else starting to suffer? This afternoon will be hard....

    Yep, it was a long night. Every time I thought seriously about going to bed it closed up again. Went to bed at 5 for 1.5hrs. Not enough really.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
    I refer you to my quote below about Sturgeon. She's already building the links with Khan.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,122
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexebarker: Tough joint EU statement. Impatience on Art 50. Warning UK on unilateral actions. Trade deal only after divorce. https://t.co/Roq4e2a3hY

    Hm, what's a two month delay in a two year process?
    Almost 10% (Well, 8.3)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,302

    Anyone else starting to suffer? This afternoon will be hard....

    Yep, wilting. The coco pops sugar rush is wearing off...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    Any option we go for surely cannot have any kind of free movement? It doesn't bother me, but people were pretty clear on what they want.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Errr i think it'll be much less. It's Euro or bust!
    I think you'll find this time he'll be sympathetic...
    Why?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938

    Anyone else starting to suffer? This afternoon will be hard....

    I'm on my fifth cup of coffee since midnight. :open_mouth:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Danny565 said:

    Wanderer said:



    There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.

    But the Labour "moderates" were some of the senior figures in the Remain Campaign. They can't be very competent either, otherwise the referendum strategy which they helped design wouldn't have been such a complete failure.

    We have the May local elections to judge a Corbyn strategy on so far -- while they weren't exactly a runaway success, it was still more of a success than the Referendum strategy that the "moderates" designed.

    The leader failed to lead.

    Forget about the moderates. The Tories are in engaged in an open civil war and their leader has just resigned. Don't you think the Labour party, which Corbyn leads, should be doing ever so slightly better than it is currently? Why aren't you making more demands of him? Why do you excuse his failure to take the battle to the Tories? Why do you sit back and allow debates over issues such as Trident to dominate party discourse? Why do you tolerate the ham-fisted incompetence of his advisers? Even if you support him, shouldn't you be wanting more from him?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,705

    Will a future Scots referendum be the first non-independence independence referendum?

    "We want freedom! (Well, not from Brussels)"

    Sturgeon might find that a harder sell than she thinks.

    If the UK ends up with EEA membership or similar, I reckon a second Scottish referendum will result in a lower Independence vote than the first.
    I agree which might well be Nicola's tactic. She might try to rush the referendum through before the terms with the EU are finalised. Once they are Leave loses because people will struggle to see the difference.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Thrak said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    No, it's mostly a problem for 'the immigrants' in those areas.
    Quite a lot of those WC voters ARE immigrants, or hadn't you noticed. A hell of a lot of immigrants voted to leave.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    It isn't the sensible option but then Leave wasn't the sensible option either. People have stopped being sensible.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    Any option we go for surely cannot have any kind of free movement? It doesn't bother me, but people were pretty clear on what they want.

    Quite. People want immigration reduced significantly. If the politicians don't deliver on that now, I really fear what will happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976

    Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
    I refer you to my quote below about Sturgeon. She's already building the links with Khan.
    It's insane - London has always been different, it's been the dominant settlement on this island for 1000 years, that it voted differently than most parts of England does not mean it makes any sense to formally split from it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,077

    Will a future Scots referendum be the first non-independence independence referendum?

    "We want freedom! (Well, not from Brussels)"

    Sturgeon might find that a harder sell than she thinks.

    If the UK ends up with EEA membership or similar, I reckon a second Scottish referendum will result in a lower Independence vote than the first.
    It won't end up with the EEA or EFTA. It cannot.

    Sadly.

    If we were to go for that it would be a betrayal of the voters. Also, it would just be another nebulous organisation for politicians and voters to blame for their own failure, just as the EU was.

    We need to move on and take our future into own hands. That is the message from yesterday.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    This is why the people calling the demise of UKIP are premature. The Tories will find it impossible to avoid being outbid on the anti-EU front by UKIP, and UKIP will always appeal to those of the true faith..
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    DavidL said:

    Anyone else starting to suffer? This afternoon will be hard....

    Yep, it was a long night. Every time I thought seriously about going to bed it closed up again. Went to bed at 5 for 1.5hrs. Not enough really.

    I am approaching hour 30 since I last woke up. I am getting a bit vague.

  • It was a close vote and the two opposing sides need to forgive and forget to enable the healing process to start.

    The outstanding feature for me was that well over 17 million genuine, fair-minded people were prepared to vote LEAVE, despite all the serious dangers of doing so.

    The political class, not only here in the UK, but throughout the EU would be well advised to consider carefully what brought about this remarkable outcome and what seemingly pushed us over the brink.

    Clearly as a people we have become increasingly dissatisfied with our lot within the EU and this feeling has been festering for a very long time, way before the recent immigration problems came to the fore.

    Watching the dreadful Vaz hectoring us last night for making such a "catastrophic mistake" really isn't going to help anyone.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
    I refer you to my quote below about Sturgeon. She's already building the links with Khan.
    It's insane - London has always been different, it's been the dominant settlement on this island for 1000 years, that it voted differently than most parts of England does not mean it makes any sense to formally split from it.
    Everything is up in the air now.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    DavidL said:

    If the UK ends up with EEA membership or similar, I reckon a second Scottish referendum will result in a lower Independence vote than the first.

    I agree which might well be Nicola's tactic. She might try to rush the referendum through before the terms with the EU are finalised. Once they are Leave loses because people will struggle to see the difference.
    Seems a high-risk tactic. If they try and bounce the public into a decision and lose because Leave is no more certain than Remain, it's going to be difficult for the party to survive a second lost referendum in two/three years.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    DavidL said:

    Will a future Scots referendum be the first non-independence independence referendum?

    "We want freedom! (Well, not from Brussels)"

    Sturgeon might find that a harder sell than she thinks.

    If the UK ends up with EEA membership or similar, I reckon a second Scottish referendum will result in a lower Independence vote than the first.
    I agree which might well be Nicola's tactic. She might try to rush the referendum through before the terms with the EU are finalised. Once they are Leave loses because people will struggle to see the difference.
    If we go for EEA we could be looking at a Ukip government. 'Betrayal' will be Farage's watchword.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,122
    The BBC is reporting that
    Nicola Sturgon is saying an independence vote is highly likely. Legislation is “being prepared!!
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    "Sturgeon says she has talked to London Mayor Sadiq Khan who shares her views about London’s place in the EU."

    Far from a joke or a pipedream, the London-Scotland axis is already developing.

    https://next.ft.com/content/7bb5752e-73a2-3a4d-859c-b1c4497d9ba1

    Wouldn't be surprised if London join in. NIR & Scotland on their own? Hmmmm. Add in the clout of London and you're talking about a viable grouping. Quite exciting, this is a time where all the chips are in the air and they are going to fall unpredictably.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
    I refer you to my quote below about Sturgeon. She's already building the links with Khan.
    It's insane - London has always been different, it's been the dominant settlement on this island for 1000 years, that it voted differently than most parts of England does not mean it makes any sense to formally split from it.

    Indeed. London voted for a Labour government in 2015, but that doesn't mean we set up a London-only parliament.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,548
    DavidL said:

    Anyone else starting to suffer? This afternoon will be hard....

    Yep, it was a long night. Every time I thought seriously about going to bed it closed up again. Went to bed at 5 for 1.5hrs. Not enough really.
    I had 2 hours. On the positive side most of us here in the office have had a few hours sleep so I'm in good company
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    FF43 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    It isn't the sensible option but then Leave wasn't the sensible option either. People have stopped being sensible.
    No, people are rational, this was a politically rational choice, we are already semi-detached from the EU, this formalised it. The rhetoric about how awful leaving will be is very overblown, there will be a period of discomfort but most people won't notice any difference. Scotland would have to axe free tuition, free prescriptions, cut back on healthcare and pay into our defence budget because it won't have much of a military to defend its airspace.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/eu-referendum-working-class-revolt-grieve

    "culture wars must stop". Owen Jones gets it, will the rest of the left get it too? Hmmm
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016

    Danny565 said:

    Wanderer said:



    There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.

    But the Labour "moderates" were some of the senior figures in the Remain Campaign. They can't be very competent either, otherwise the referendum strategy which they helped design wouldn't have been such a complete failure.

    We have the May local elections to judge a Corbyn strategy on so far -- while they weren't exactly a runaway success, it was still more of a success than the Referendum strategy that the "moderates" designed.

    The leader failed to lead.

    Forget about the moderates. The Tories are in engaged in an open civil war and their leader has just resigned. Don't you think the Labour party, which Corbyn leads, should be doing ever so slightly better than it is currently? Why aren't you making more demands of him? Why do you excuse his failure to take the battle to the Tories? Why do you sit back and allow debates over issues such as Trident to dominate party discourse? Why do you tolerate the ham-fisted incompetence of his advisers? Even if you support him, shouldn't you be wanting more from him?

    Certainly, Corbyn could and should be doing much better.

    But I can't "forget about the moderates", because they are the only alternative to Corbyn. With respect, your argument is rather like saying that anyone who dislikes any aspects of the EU should've voted to Leave without question, without considering whether the alternative would be worse. And everything I've heard "anecdotally" in my neck of the woods, combined with what I've heard from "moderate" MPs, tells me the "moderates" have even less feel for the public mood than Corbyn does.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905

    Sturgeon heavily implying a second referendum is on the cards without saying it overtly.

    She said it overtly at least twice...
  • Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
    I refer you to my quote below about Sturgeon. She's already building the links with Khan.
    err, ok.

    An adjustment is coming. If your thinking is clouded with Political Correctness, Normalcy Bias & Group Think, you probably miss what is happening.

    Khan & Sturgeon are just riding a wave like Cameron did. The people control the tide.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,173
    DavidL said:

    Will a future Scots referendum be the first non-independence independence referendum?

    "We want freedom! (Well, not from Brussels)"

    Sturgeon might find that a harder sell than she thinks.

    If the UK ends up with EEA membership or similar, I reckon a second Scottish referendum will result in a lower Independence vote than the first.
    I agree which might well be Nicola's tactic. She might try to rush the referendum through before the terms with the EU are finalised. Once they are Leave loses because people will struggle to see the difference.
    It's a win-win for Nicola. Full Brexit and she can legitimately talk about Scotland's place in the world; Crypto-EU-membership and she can say that the English Tories have just being playing games and turning Britain into a laughing stock.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Indigo said:

    Thrak said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    No, it's mostly a problem for 'the immigrants' in those areas.
    Quite a lot of those WC voters ARE immigrants, or hadn't you noticed. A hell of a lot of immigrants voted to leave.
    That's right- slough, luton, Birmingham, Bradford all leave.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,022
    And along comes Theresa Villiers to help Sturgeon's case.

    These people are fools.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
    I refer you to my quote below about Sturgeon. She's already building the links with Khan.
    It's insane - London has always been different, it's been the dominant settlement on this island for 1000 years, that it voted differently than most parts of England does not mean it makes any sense to formally split from it.

    Indeed. London voted for a Labour government in 2015, but that doesn't mean we set up a London-only parliament.
    If London hugely voted to stay in the EU, and is also the EU's de facto financial centre, it's rather more important than voting Labour at the 2015 GE. If Sturgeon is already trying to forge the links with London, she can see it has actual potential. It will develop.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    DavidL said:

    Anyone else starting to suffer? This afternoon will be hard....

    Yep, it was a long night. Every time I thought seriously about going to bed it closed up again. Went to bed at 5 for 1.5hrs. Not enough really.

    I am approaching hour 30 since I last woke up. I am getting a bit vague.

    I went to bed about 3 but didn't sleep at all. Very weird night. The betting was A+, the politics E--.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,302
    Just realised that Theresa Villiers reminds me of Crystal Tipps. Where's Alistair?

    http://i186.photobucket.com/albums/x93/midwichcukoos/crystal-tipps-and-alistair.jpg
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Remain campaigner Stanley Johnson on BBC One. Classic.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I am trying to work out whether the sulking, petulance and hysteria from the losing side is worse this year than last. It's a tough call.
  • Fpt yougovs polling itself was fine. But they ignored what it was telling them about turnout and instead just assumed turnout based on ge2015. They then made it worse by deciding that the dks would vote (very few i think will have) and break significantly for remain.

    The allocation of Dks I believe by Populus was based on the way people felt about the economy whereas far more people were motivated by immigration issues. Did Yougov do the same?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    Labour need to decide who they are and what are their values. Do they stand for the working man, with his values, concerns and prejudices, or do they stand for an educated metropolitan elite who believe in unlimited unskilled immigration?

    They have tried doing both, and as we have seen it didn't work.

    It could be worse - they could have alienated both. At least the ones they still have will be alive longer.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Carney? He's yesterday's man. He'll be out soon enough with Cameron and Osborne...
    True. He sacked himself.
    Would that help in the attempts needed now to steady the ship? Or is it really all about settling scores now?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938

    It was a close vote and the two opposing sides need to forgive and forget to enable the healing process to start.

    People will have to "make it work" eventually but for the next day's it's "keep your head down" time I think. ;)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.

    The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
  • Just realised that Theresa Villiers reminds me of Crystal Tipps. Where's Alistair?

    http://i186.photobucket.com/albums/x93/midwichcukoos/crystal-tipps-and-alistair.jpg

    Alistair M is emigrating?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    chestnut said:

    I am trying to work out whether the sulking, petulance and hysteria from the losing side is worse this year than last. It's a tough call.

    Well there are people on here saying that Scotland and London should leave the UK and form their own country, so I'd say worse.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.

    That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

    No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

    Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

    Exactly right. He should go and go now.
    How do you think that will happen?

    We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

    Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
    It's difference.
    It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the Campaign?
    A sack of shit would not do worse than Corbyn.
    Except the Remain Campaign DID just do worse than Corbyn, and the Remain Campaign was steered by the "moderate" Labour MPs....

    Because Corbyn would not lead, even though he is supposed to be Labour leader and Labour policy was and is to remain in the EU.

    In Corbyn-land, of course, it is OK for the leader to oppose any Labour policy he likes.

    Well, Labour certainly "led" in the anti-independence campaign in Scotland, but that still didn't do very much to convince (former) Labour voters to fall in line.

    I think the idea that Labour voters would've gone a different way if only they'd been given instructions from their leader is very patronising. The WWC were not going to vote for Remain, no matter which politicians were selling it or how "passionately" they sold it. The issue therefore is which politicians have astute enough judgement to have foreseen that Remain was going to lose -- and on that score, all the Labour "moderates" have failed dismally.

    So what you are telling me is that Labour should become a party that advocates strong immigration controls. I have a feeling that plenty of Labour moderates would not have a huge problem with that. But I know someone who would. And what do you think WWC voters think about giving up Trident? Or any of the other issues that Jezza feels strongly about? Where is his connection with Labour's voters? How does he speak to them? How does he connect? By not going near them? is that really what leadership is all about?

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Danny565 said:

    Wanderer said:



    There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.

    But the Labour "moderates" were some of the senior figures in the Remain Campaign. They can't be very competent either, otherwise the referendum strategy which they helped design wouldn't have been such a complete failure.

    We have the May local elections to judge a Corbyn strategy on so far -- while they weren't exactly a runaway success, it was still more of a success than the Referendum strategy that the "moderates" designed.

    The leader failed to lead.

    Forget about the moderates. The Tories are in engaged in an open civil war and their leader has just resigned. Don't you think the Labour party, which Corbyn leads, should be doing ever so slightly better than it is currently? Why aren't you making more demands of him? Why do you excuse his failure to take the battle to the Tories? Why do you sit back and allow debates over issues such as Trident to dominate party discourse? Why do you tolerate the ham-fisted incompetence of his advisers? Even if you support him, shouldn't you be wanting more from him?

    Have some heart the people who turned out for the first time might make a habit of it and they certainly won't vote Tory!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
    Ha ha. Live in a bubble much?
    I refer you to my quote below about Sturgeon. She's already building the links with Khan.
    It's insane - London has always been different, it's been the dominant settlement on this island for 1000 years, that it voted differently than most parts of England does not mean it makes any sense to formally split from it.

    Indeed. London voted for a Labour government in 2015, but that doesn't mean we set up a London-only parliament.
    If London hugely voted to stay in the EU, and is also the EU's de facto financial centre, it's rather more important than voting Labour at the 2015 GE. If Sturgeon is already trying to forge the links with London, she can see it has actual potential. It will develop.

    A small group of the elite trying to subvert the democratic will of people?

    Not going anywhere good.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122

    It was a close vote and the two opposing sides need to forgive and forget to enable the healing process to start.

    The outstanding feature for me was that well over 17 million genuine, fair-minded people were prepared to vote LEAVE, despite all the serious dangers of doing so.

    The political class, not only here in the UK, but throughout the EU would be well advised to consider carefully what brought about this remarkable outcome and what seemingly pushed us over the brink.

    Clearly as a people we have become increasingly dissatisfied with our lot within the EU and this feeling has been festering for a very long time, way before the recent immigration problems came to the fore.

    Watching the dreadful Vaz hectoring us last night for making such a "catastrophic mistake" really isn't going to help anyone.

    Sorry Peter- the forgive and forget doesn't cut it. This was a binary, winner takes all vote. The leave used a racist campaign- they went for the jugular with immigration knowing that it would be the catalyst to mobilise the WWC.

    The acrimony of the referendum will last a long time....especially as many of the predictions of project fear come to the fore.
  • chestnut said:

    I am trying to work out whether the sulking, petulance and hysteria from the losing side is worse this year than last. It's a tough call.

    How is that different to the way many of them (not all) behaved in the pre-election period?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    FF43 said:

    Johnson said he wouldn't invoke Article 50. He didn't say he wouldn't immediately invoke Article 50. Is there any significance in that?

    Leadsom this morning was talking about bilateral discussions with the EU, rather than instantly invoking article 50.

    3h19m30s into the video below
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07k8ld4/eu-referendum-the-result-part-two

    I expect one of them will flesh this out in newspaper articles over the next days/weeks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The outstanding feature for me was that well over 17 million genuine, fair-minded people were prepared to vote LEAVE, despite all the serious dangers of doing so.

    That's not what happened.

    The polling showed that people voting out perceived no dangers.

    They didn't listen to experts. They bought Boris's sunny uplands bullshit. And many of them are about to be very surprised, and somewhat aggrieved I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    FF43 said:

    I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.

    The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.

    However ridiculous to not mention it, I dont think she'd have done so unless she intended to go ahead with it and thought she'd win. I don't think it's positioning.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016
    Donation sent.

    Thanks Mike for running the site.

    Leave was always the value bet, and in the early hours of this morning was free money.

    I could't believe that 2.5ish was still available while England was turning blue!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. B2, Sturgeon said it overtly *after* I posted that :)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    The outstanding feature for me was that well over 17 million genuine, fair-minded people were prepared to vote LEAVE, despite all the serious dangers of doing so.

    That's not what happened.

    The polling showed that people voting out perceived no dangers.

    They didn't listen to experts. They bought Boris's sunny uplands bullshit. And many of them are about to be very surprised, and somewhat aggrieved I think.
    They didn't believe the extreme scenarios, that's not the same thing.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Indigo said:

    Thrak said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    No, it's mostly a problem for 'the immigrants' in those areas.
    Quite a lot of those WC voters ARE immigrants, or hadn't you noticed. A hell of a lot of immigrants voted to leave.
    Always the most recent who get the blame, in the end those on the lower rungs of the ladder are pushed into eating each other while the well off get the best of it.

    I'm from a wwc background, I know these people. Some are openly racist, some hide it, many are not at all. They aren't monolithic but there are enough to make conflict inevitable. It's there, it's always there and this makes it worse.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    chestnut said:

    I am trying to work out whether the sulking, petulance and hysteria from the losing side is worse this year than last. It's a tough call.

    Much worse, and very amusing.
  • DavidL said:

    Will a future Scots referendum be the first non-independence independence referendum?

    "We want freedom! (Well, not from Brussels)"

    Sturgeon might find that a harder sell than she thinks.

    If the UK ends up with EEA membership or similar, I reckon a second Scottish referendum will result in a lower Independence vote than the first.
    I agree which might well be Nicola's tactic. She might try to rush the referendum through before the terms with the EU are finalised. Once they are Leave loses because people will struggle to see the difference.
    It's a win-win for Nicola. Full Brexit and she can legitimately talk about Scotland's place in the world; Crypto-EU-membership and she can say that the English Tories have just being playing games and turning Britain into a laughing stock.
    Have Matthew Elliott plan the Sindy2 referendum campaign and the SNP will lose. But I am pro-Sindy so please everyone keep the idea to yourself.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    They didn't believe the extreme scenarios, that's not the same thing.

    Polling said they didn't see any downside for themselves
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    nunu said:

    Danny565 said:

    Wanderer said:



    There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.

    But the Labour "moderates" were some of the senior figures in the Remain Campaign. They can't be very competent either, otherwise the referendum strategy which they helped design wouldn't have been such a complete failure.

    We have the May local elections to judge a Corbyn strategy on so far -- while they weren't exactly a runaway success, it was still more of a success than the Referendum strategy that the "moderates" designed.

    The leader failed to lead.

    Forget about the moderates. The Tories are in engaged in an open civil war and their leader has just resigned. Don't you think the Labour party, which Corbyn leads, should be doing ever so slightly better than it is currently? Why aren't you making more demands of him? Why do you excuse his failure to take the battle to the Tories? Why do you sit back and allow debates over issues such as Trident to dominate party discourse? Why do you tolerate the ham-fisted incompetence of his advisers? Even if you support him, shouldn't you be wanting more from him?

    Have some heart the people who turned out for the first time might make a habit of it and they certainly won't vote Tory!
    Wow that's going to upset the Tories in Stoke and Sunderland and the other Northern towns.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    FF43 said:

    I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.

    The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.

    The risk is that the positioning may push her supporters over the edge and she has to follow. I doubt that there would be any equivalent of "the vow" or indeed any material goodwill in those circumstances. The consequences would be interesting.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Is there a betting market on Scotland being out of the UK before the UK is out of the EU?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Leadsom this morning was talking about bilateral discussions with the EU, rather than instantly invoking article 50.

    And the EU have already said FU
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    The Governor will follow government policy and government policy will be - again - that an independent Scotland could only use Sterling beyond the short term if rUK oversaw the Scottish finance sector and could place and enforce limits on Scottish government borrowing. It has to be to protect rUK interests.

    In any case, an independent Scotland would now be unequivocably obliged to accept new member terms i.e. signed up to the Euro.

    I do wonder whether the support for the EU might dissipate north of the border anyway now that the UK's leaving. After all, the question was whether the UK should leave or remain, not Scotland.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    kle4 said:

    Any option we go for surely cannot have any kind of free movement? It doesn't bother me, but people were pretty clear on what they want.

    But it wouldn't be just any old free movement, it would be "M&S" free movement that we ourselves had decided to have. Take control, remember....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,022
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.

    The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.

    However ridiculous to not mention it, I dont think she'd have done so unless she intended to go ahead with it and thought she'd win. I don't think it's positioning.
    She now has the leverage to get a red-carpet deal from Brussels before holding the vote to rubber-stamp it. All of the 'leap into the unknown' objections will disappear.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. P, Remain are to blame for that. They opened with Cameron's deal (which he claimed was good but everyone saw was worthless) then moved on to Armageddon. Credibility was shot, so later, more serious, arguments were seen through that prism.

    This was exacerbated by the stupid approach Cameron in particular took. You can't persuade people you're calling racist.
  • bazzerbazzer Posts: 44
    Would be interesting tactical move for Scotland if Sturgeon could turn Edinburgh into a financial island like London and get all the banks to relocate to Edinburgh and do a deal with Brussels to keep Scotland in before England leaves. Could they cope financially with lots of handouts and sweetners and aid from Brussels?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,173
    FF43 said:

    I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.

    The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.

    Yes, PM Boris is going to pulled in all directions by London, Scotland, UKIP and the hard Right: all with their own agendas and all absolutely willing him to fail. On top of that he's now got to negotiate with the EU. This is going to turn into a real bugger's muddle.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Wanderer said:



    There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.

    But the Labour "moderates" were some of the senior figures in the Remain Campaign. They can't be very competent either, otherwise the referendum strategy which they helped design wouldn't have been such a complete failure.

    We have the May local elections to judge a Corbyn strategy on so far -- while they weren't exactly a runaway success, it was still more of a success than the Referendum strategy that the "moderates" designed.

    The leader failed to lead.

    Forget about the moderates. The Tories are in engaged in an open civil war and their leader has just resigned. Don't you think the Labour party, which Corbyn leads, should be doing ever so slightly better than it is currently? Why aren't you making more demands of him? Why do you excuse his failure to take the battle to the Tories? Why do you sit back and allow debates over issues such as Trident to dominate party discourse? Why do you tolerate the ham-fisted incompetence of his advisers? Even if you support him, shouldn't you be wanting more from him?

    Certainly, Corbyn could and should be doing much better.

    But I can't "forget about the moderates", because they are the only alternative to Corbyn. With respect, your argument is rather like saying that anyone who dislikes any aspects of the EU should've voted to Leave without question, without considering whether the alternative would be worse. And everything I've heard "anecdotally" in my neck of the woods, combined with what I've heard from "moderate" MPs, tells me the "moderates" have even less feel for the public mood than Corbyn does.

    Really? Is the left and the centre left in labour so devoid of talent that Jeremy Corbyn is the only person they can put forward to make their case? Are the moderates really the only alternative to his leadership?

    If Corbyn could and should be doing better why isn't the membership telling him that?

  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    We should have realised all along that something odd was happening, Betfair was simply not responding to good Leave polls as it should have been.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    The lesson for the pollsters is trust your figures, and don't make last-minute adjustments to cover your backs.

    Without last minute adjustments, the eve of poll numbers would have been:-

    TNS 54/46, Opinium 51/49, Yougov 50/50, Survation 49/51, ORB 49/51, MORI 49/51, a creditable performance.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091



    So what you are telling me is that Labour should become a party that advocates strong immigration controls. I have a feeling that plenty of Labour moderates would not have a huge problem with that. But I know someone who would. And what do you think WWC voters think about giving up Trident? Or any of the other issues that Jezza feels strongly about? Where is his connection with Labour's voters? How does he speak to them? How does he connect? By not going near them? is that really what leadership is all about?

    Why do you say that Labour moderates wouldn't have a problem with immigration controls? That is generally one of the few issues where the "moderates" say Labour should take an unequivocally liberal stance and not "pander" to public opinion. Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna said even ED MILIBAND was too tough on immigration for their liking.

    I agree that Jezza's stance on Trident and his general hippyish "Kumbaya" approach to terrorists will not go down well with the WWC, but on economic issues, he is much more in tune than the "moderates" are -- with Jezza, there is atleast the chance that WWC voters will overlook their disagreement with Labour on cultural issues if they atleast think they're being offered a chance to shake up the economy and make it work for them.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.

    The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.

    However ridiculous to not mention it, I dont think she'd have done so unless she intended to go ahead with it and thought she'd win. I don't think it's positioning.
    She now has the leverage to get a red-carpet deal from Brussels before holding the vote to rubber-stamp it. All of the 'leap into the unknown' objections will disappear.
    Brussels is going to be in fire-fighting mode for months if not years. They aren't going to want to have any new problems.

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Donation sent.

    Thanks Mike for running the site.

    Leave was always the value bet, and in the early hours of this morning was free money.

    I could't believe that 2.5ish was still available while England was turning blue!

    I had promised that I wouldn't bet on Leave, but in the end it would've been irresponsible not to take some free money. I'm still smarting from not betting on Mourinho at Man U even though it was tipped by a reliable source on PB before Easter. Ouch.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    Leadsom this morning was talking about bilateral discussions with the EU, rather than instantly invoking article 50.

    And the EU have already said FU
    No they haven't.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2016
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/eu-referendum-working-class-revolt-grieve
    Many of the nearly half of the British people who voted remain now feel scared and angry, ready to lash out at their fellow citizens. But this will make things worse. Many of the leavers already felt marginalised, ignored and hated. The contempt – and sometimes snobbery – now being shown about leavers on social media was already felt by these communities, and contributed to this verdict. Millions of Britons feel that a metropolitan elite rules the roost which not only doesn’t understand their values and lives, but actively hates them. If Britain is to have a future, this escalating culture war has to be stopped. The people of Britain have spoken. That is democracy, and we now have to make the country’s verdict work.
    Owen Jones is right on the money (not a sentence I except to use very often!), and Meeks disgraceful sneering earlier demonstrates his point precisely.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The argument that Scotland should seek independence only to surrender sovereignty to Brussels has always seemed odd to me,
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    If the Scots want another referendum then I guess its their right. I quibble a little with the grounds - they voted to be part of the UK, and now wish to pick and choose whether they accept the results of being in that union.

    I think it would be an economic disaster for them. The EU may not exist in two years anyway.

    The idea of any London separatism is preposterous in my view. I can't imagine Khan would say anything like that directly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Juncker should resign. But he won't. And there is no way of getting him out. That's one reason why Brexit is a thing today.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Scott_P said:

    Leadsom this morning was talking about bilateral discussions with the EU, rather than instantly invoking article 50.

    And the EU have already said FU

    Leadsom is the lightweight's lightweight. In fact, she is featherweight.

This discussion has been closed.