Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure

2456710

Comments

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,173
    I take it that Boris is going for what we suspected all along - EU membership in all but name.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    Any odds on Carswell getting a position in cabinet or in negotiations?

    It's scary but he's now one of the people I'd look to and (gulp) trust at this worrying time.

    I'm having a seant meltdown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Pulpstar said:

    £/$ almost at 1.4.

    1.38, just over
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Anybody heard from Mrs Duffy yet? :smiley:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577

    Any odds on Carswell getting a position in cabinet or in negotiations?

    Surely he'd be on any negotiation committee, as UKIPs sole MP?
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,661
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexebarker: Tough joint EU statement. Impatience on Art 50. Warning UK on unilateral actions. Trade deal only after divorce. https://t.co/Roq4e2a3hY

    Hm, what's a two month delay in a two year process?
    Also says wants UK to stay a strong partner outside the EU.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Mr. Rabbit, could be something like EEA + Referendum 2: Refer Harder.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    edited June 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Boris starting with a eulogy to David Cameron! Very gracious.


    I think that eulogy will go down like a cup of cold vomit at Chez DC and Sam.

    You cannot make it up just how nasty some Tories are, to each other principally when ambition is concerned, but to anyone else for that matter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,251
    GIN1138 said:

    Anybody heard from Mrs Duffy yet? :smiley:

    Rat arsed I bet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    IanB2 said:


    Corbyn has to be executed because he's useless. Not only will Brexit reshape Britain totally there might well be a Brexit General Election under a new PM. It's precisely because of what Labour heartlands did yesterday that Labour MP's have to act. You just can't have someone so utterly incompetent in charge when your nation is in a once per century flux.

    Don't you need to have someone less useless and more in touch, before executing someone for being useless and out of touch?
    Not at all, the Romans tried the same, the useless overthrowing the useless, and it worked out fine - what was so bad about the third century crisis?
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Very calm from Boris and Red Mike. They will make great PM and Chancellor ;) Actually, Gove might need to be in charge of the negotiations.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Labour needs a communicator with some guts who recognises that Labour are close to extinction. It is that bad. Labour needs something fresh to say on policy that combines the best of all sides of the party.

    Corbyn is not the man to deliver any of that. He must go.

    I don't think Labour need a good communicator as such, but just someone who has good political judgement and is a good reader of the public mood. But the problem is that anyone who was a good reader of the public mood would not have thrown themselves full-square behind the failed Remain Campaign - yet that is exactly what EVERY "moderate" Labour MP did.

    Again, I'm certainly not arguing that Corbyn is a success, and I say this as someone who only ranked him 3rd preference (behind Burnham and Cooper) in the contest last year, but I genuinely believe right now that he's the least-worst option. I honestly believe a Blairite strategy would lead to utter wipeout in the North and the Midlands, in the current climate. Atleast with Corbyn as leader, there's a chance a populist economic argument and the sense that he's "anti-establishment" will convince some working-class traditional voters to overlook their HUGE disagreement with Labour on cultural issues.
    Britain needs a leader of the opposition at the very top of their game. Someone who can build a coalition to create an alternative government. It is urgent. It has never been more important.
    Absolutely, that would be the ideal. But I'm afraid I see absolutely no such potential leader on offer.

    As far as I see it, the Blairite/"moderate" prescription is to go even more hardcore on the cultural issues that are toxic in the Labour heartlands (Europe, immigration), while backpeddling on the bits of Corbynism which might have some appeal in the heartlands (anti-austerity, giving the fat cats a kicking). As such, Corbyn is the lesser of the evils.
    But we know that Corbyn is NOT it. He is a bed blocker and needs to get out of the way and get out of the way quickly before it's too late.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    tyson said:

    Charles said:

    feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

    "A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

    "Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"

    Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

    I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.
    No, because he fundamentals of the UK economy are largely unaffected by the EU. Our exports to the EU amount to 9.6% of GDP. We'd have to lose 30% or more of that for it to make a prolonged dent which would cause a long term downturn or loss of potential growth, while making no inroads in non-EU trade. It's a fanciful scenario and the markets have reacted exactly as expected. Even if we go fully out I don't see a massive hit like those predicted by the doom mongers, we'll still trade with the EU, making imports slightly less appealing will help domestic companies a bit and the weaker currency will help the exporters a bit, beyond that the wailing and gnashing of teeth will come to very little.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,844
    Juncker is pissed.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Labour needs a communicator with some guts who recognises that Labour are close to extinction. It is that bad. Labour needs something fresh to say on policy that combines the best of all sides of the party.

    Corbyn is not the man to deliver any of that. He must go.

    I don't think Labour need a good communicator as such, but just someone who has good political judgement and is a good reader of the public mood. But the problem is that anyone who was a good reader of the public mood would not have thrown themselves full-square behind the failed Remain Campaign - yet that is exactly what EVERY "moderate" Labour MP did.

    Again, I'm certainly not arguing that Corbyn is a success, and I say this as someone who only ranked him 3rd preference (behind Burnham and Cooper) in the contest last year, but I genuinely believe right now that he's the least-worst option. I honestly believe a Blairite strategy would lead to utter wipeout in the North and the Midlands, in the current climate. Atleast with Corbyn as leader, there's a chance a populist economic argument and the sense that he's "anti-establishment" will convince some working-class traditional voters to overlook their HUGE disagreement with Labour on cultural issues.
    Britain needs a leader of the opposition at the very top of their game. Someone who can build a coalition to create an alternative government. It is urgent. It has never been more important.
    Absolutely, that would be the ideal. But I'm afraid I see absolutely no such potential leader on offer.

    As far as I see it, the Blairite/"moderate" prescription is to go even more hardcore on the cultural issues that are toxic in the Labour heartlands (Europe, immigration), while backpeddling on the bits of Corbynism which might have some appeal in the heartlands (anti-austerity, giving the fat cats a kicking). As such, Corbyn is the lesser of the evils.
    But we know that Corbyn is NOT it. He is a bed blocker and needs to get out of the way and get out of the way quickly before it's too late.
    Again, this is just where we differ. I think Corbyn is closer to it than any of the "moderates" who have polar opposite views to the core vote on both economics AND cultural issues; Corbyn is atleast aligned with them on economics.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,584
    Er, the Markets have stabilised because there is massive intervention going on. The fact is that the UK is going to have the living crap beaten out of it, but it will an "orderly" collapse. Entering into the Market now is foolhardy in the extreme.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    edited June 2016
    I'd be pretty happy with EEA/EFTA to be honest, but I'm not sure the WWC will.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    Here it comes.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Junker should resign (his failure is greater than Cameron's). But he won't. And that's kind of the point of the Leave campaign.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Here comes Junker!!!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,173

    Any odds on Carswell getting a position in cabinet or in negotiations?

    It's scary but he's now one of the people I'd look to and (gulp) trust at this worrying time.

    Not a chance. High up in Boris and Gove's plans was to kill UKIP stone dead.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    tlg86 said:

    Juncker is pissed.

    A bit early even for him isn't it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,844
    Err, what is Sturgeon on about?!
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    No, it's mostly a problem for 'the immigrants' in those areas.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Sky cut away from Juncker because no one in the office can translate the french. Such Europeans.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,075
    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    Boris starting with a eulogy to David Cameron! Very gracious.


    I think that eulogy will go down like a cup of cold vomit at Chez DC and Sam.

    You cannot make it up just how nasty some Tories are, to each other principally when ambition is concerned, but to anyone else for that matter.
    Nastiness is not the preserve only of Tories.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    tlg86 said:

    Juncker is pissed.


    Angry or drunk?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,020
    Sturgeon has deleted the Union Flag.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    I take it that Boris is going for what we suspected all along - EU membership in all but name.

    Sounds like it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577

    Sturgeon has deleted the Union Flag.

    UDI? :p
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    Johnson said he wouldn't invoke Article 50. He didn't say he wouldn't immediately invoke Article 50. Is there any significance in that?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Juncker is pissed.

    angry or drunk?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,298
    Blue_rog said:

    Ms Stewart sounded shell shocked and even Boris is a bit subdued!

    Lack of sleep all round I think!
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    It's now time (and now possible) to relaunch the Buy British campaign
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Huge mistake by the Blairites. Corbyn will perfectly placed to benefit from the economic crash.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT

    Labour needs a communicator with some guts who recognises that Labour are close to extinction. It is that bad. Labour needs something fresh to say on policy that combines the best of all sides of the party.

    Corbyn is not the man to deliver any of that. He must go.

    I don't think Labour need a good communicator as such, but just someone who has good political judgement and is a good reader of the public mood. But the problem is that anyone who was a good reader of the public mood would not have thrown themselves full-square behind the failed Remain Campaign - yet that is exactly what EVERY "moderate" Labour MP did.

    Again, I'm certainly not arguing that Corbyn is a success, and I say this as someone who only ranked him 3rd preference (behind Burnham and Cooper) in the contest last year, but I genuinely believe right now that he's the least-worst option. I honestly believe a Blairite strategy would lead to utter wipeout in the North and the Midlands, in the current climate. Atleast with Corbyn as leader, there's a chance a populist economic argument and the sense that he's "anti-establishment" will convince some working-class traditional voters to overlook their HUGE disagreement with Labour on cultural issues.
    Britain needs a leader of the opposition at the very top of their game. Someone who can build a coalition to create an alternative government. It is urgent. It has never been more important.
    Absolutely, that would be the ideal. But I'm afraid I see absolutely no such potential leader on offer.

    As far as I see it, the Blairite/"moderate" prescription is to go even more hardcore on the cultural issues that are toxic in the Labour heartlands (Europe, immigration), while backpeddling on the bits of Corbynism which might have some appeal in the heartlands (anti-austerity, giving the fat cats a kicking). As such, Corbyn is the lesser of the evils.
    But we know that Corbyn is NOT it. He is a bed blocker and needs to get out of the way and get out of the way quickly before it's too late.
    Again, this is just where we differ. I think Corbyn is closer to it than any of the "moderates" who have polar opposite views to the core vote on both economics AND cultural issues; Corbyn is atleast aligned with them on economics.
    There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    significant and material change alert!
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    Huge mistake by the Blairites. Corbyn will perfectly placed to benefit from the economic crash.

    will be, rather.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Jobabob said:

    I take it that Boris is going for what we suspected all along - EU membership in all but name.

    Sounds like it.
    Nah. That was all about holding the centre and making sure the markets are stable.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    edited June 2016
    FF43 said:

    Johnson said he wouldn't invoke Article 50. He didn't say he wouldn't immediately invoke Article 50. Is there any significance in that?

    Probably only that he bumbles his words, and that he isn't PM yet so doesn't want to sound like he assumes he will be and do in position to invoke.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    edited June 2016
    Theresa May 3-1 2nd fav for Tory leadership election so may well get on the ballot v Johnson.Those who have backed her at longer prices-last bet I took was 11-1-could at least lay off your stake for a free hit.She could do it on a unity platform as the "Stop Johnson" candidate.That's where my money is asJohnson remains "a nasty piece of work" who is not fit to lead the country IMHO.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.

    That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

    No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

    Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

    Exactly right. He should go and go now.
    How do you think that will happen?

    We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

    Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
    It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
    It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
    A sack of shit would not do worse than Corbyn.
    Except the Remain Campaign DID just do worse than Corbyn, and the Remain Campaign was steered by the "moderate" Labour MPs....

    Because Corbyn would not lead, even though he is supposed to be Labour leader and Labour policy was and is to remain in the EU.

    In Corbyn-land, of course, it is OK for the leader to oppose any Labour policy he likes.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IndyRef2. Ref harder
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,844
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Juncker is pissed.

    angry or drunk?
    Both!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Sturgeon: democratically unacceptable for Scotland to be taken out of the EU against its will.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,483
    edited June 2016
    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    As I said earlier today. Unless Labour change their tone (and reading a few Labour MPs comments today they can't) UKIP will win a lot of WWC votes... Looking at my local area that means:-

    Hartlepool UKIP
    Redcar UKIP
    Darlington Tory (UKIP destroying the labour Vote)
    Sedgefield UKIP

    Unless Labour starts listening to the people who vote for it, its about to become Scottish Labour...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,661
    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    EEA + EFTA pretty much only sane thing to do, but something on migration will also be needed.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    The plot thickens. If this pair pull this off – Ukip destroyed, Labour irreparably split, the europhile wing of the Tory party smashed, Cameron removed, EFTA – well, well... it's genius.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Any odds on Carswell getting a position in cabinet or in negotiations?

    It's scary but he's now one of the people I'd look to and (gulp) trust at this worrying time.

    Not a chance. High up in Boris and Gove's plans was to kill UKIP stone dead.
    What I mean though is why wouldn't Carswell come back to the new Tory right aligned party, it was his loathing of Cammo and Osborne which he showed most often?

    And he launched in to an attack on Farage last night on BBC didn't he when he actually prompted Dimbleby to ask him his view on those posters (which DD fluffed but Laura K rescued) that won't have help in kipperdom.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938

    Sturgeon has deleted the Union Flag.

    Nicola genuinely upset or just playing games? ;)
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Thrak said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    No, it's mostly a problem for 'the immigrants' in those areas.
    Not a problem for Boris anyway.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    what are EU expats on here planning to do now? will you apply for nationality where you live?

    Not for me - I shall stay in Spain as a resident on any new terms that are negotiated. But I am very lucky to have private health cover, a good pension and savings in both £s and €s! My concern is for the very many more who have less and are currently depend on the dual arrangements which gives pensioners over 65 access to the very good Spanish NHS. loss of this would compel many to return permanently to the UK and is a major cause of anxiety.

    One point i would make is I dislike the use of the term 'expats' - we are actually 'immigrants' just like the ones in the UK who so many want to get rid of.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    When will we invoke? I'd assume what they'll be seeking will be part of the Tory leadership pitch, as we will find it hard to begin without know what option they're going for.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.

    That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

    No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

    Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

    Exactly right. He should go and go now.
    How do you think that will happen?

    We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

    Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
    It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
    It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
    A sack of shit would not do worse than Corbyn.
    Except the Remain Campaign DID just do worse than Corbyn, and the Remain Campaign was steered by the "moderate" Labour MPs....

    Because Corbyn would not lead, even though he is supposed to be Labour leader and Labour policy was and is to remain in the EU.

    In Corbyn-land, of course, it is OK for the leader to oppose any Labour policy he likes.

    I'm sure his weekend quote about uncapped immigration was very helpful in the heartlands.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sturgeon P2 L2

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    EEA + EFTA pretty much only sane thing to do, but something on migration will also be needed.

    EEA+EFTA and something on immigration would be a very good result. Take control indeed.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Sturgeon heavily implying a second referendum is on the cards without saying it overtly.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Nicola does not want independence.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Jobabob said:

    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    The plot thickens. If this pair pull this off – Ukip destroyed, Labour irreparably split, the europhile wing of the Tory party smashed, Cameron removed, EFTA – well, well... it's genius.
    Nope. He'll have a furious working-class constituency to deal with very soon, if that's his plan.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    I listen to Sturgeon now and think - just go your own way. Will be tough for them and the SNP can finally be held fully accountable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    London??!!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Wanderer said:



    There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.

    But the Labour "moderates" were some of the senior figures in the Remain Campaign. They can't be very competent either, otherwise the referendum strategy which they helped design wouldn't have been such a complete failure.

    We have the May local elections to judge a Corbyn strategy on so far -- while they weren't exactly a runaway success, it was still more of a success than the Referendum strategy that the "moderates" designed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Thrak said:

    tlg86 said:

    Boris being very kind to Cameron. Given Dave's treatment of him in the Commons a few months ago, that's impressive.

    He knows he's next for the same teatment. The leave team look and sound shocked, they didn't expect to have to own this.
    Yes, Boris will need all the friends he can get, and some...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    MaxPB said:

    tyson said:

    Charles said:

    feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

    "A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

    "Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"

    Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

    I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.
    No, because he fundamentals of the UK economy are largely unaffected by the EU. Our exports to the EU amount to 9.6% of GDP. We'd have to lose 30% or more of that for it to make a prolonged dent which would cause a long term downturn or loss of potential growth, while making no inroads in non-EU trade. It's a fanciful scenario and the markets have reacted exactly as expected. Even if we go fully out I don't see a massive hit like those predicted by the doom mongers, we'll still trade with the EU, making imports slightly less appealing will help domestic companies a bit and the weaker currency will help the exporters a bit, beyond that the wailing and gnashing of teeth will come to very little.
    I don't think you quite realise just how debt ridden our country is. A house price crash for instance, something that is now much more likely (who in their right minds will buy a house at the minute), will crush our economy.

    This vote creates uncertainty.....this a terrible thing for an economy.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    what are EU expats on here planning to do now? will you apply for nationality where you live?

    That strikes me as an overreaction. Why not wait and see what happens.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,483
    Jobabob said:

    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    The plot thickens. If this pair pull this off – Ukip destroyed, Labour irreparably split, the europhile wing of the Tory party smashed, Cameron removed, EFTA – well, well... it's genius.
    UKIP isn't destroyed unless Labour gets its arse in gear..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    Scott_P said:
    They can still be ruled by Westminster then? :D
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    Jobabob said:

    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    The plot thickens. If this pair pull this off – Ukip destroyed, Labour irreparably split, the europhile wing of the Tory party smashed, Cameron removed, EFTA – well, well... it's genius.
    The Tory party will be united by Monday behind the Leave vote. It is the natural stance of the party, and now that the leadership will reflect that stance it has no reason to be split.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Dave has saved then destroyed the Union
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    IndyRef II - The Reckoning
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,075
    IMO Sturgeon's making a mistake in not acknowledging that over a million Scots voted for leave.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Material change 2nd Indy is on !!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    The Labour heartlands ignored Corbyn’s call for Remain, just as Doncaster ignored Ed’s.

    The disconnect between Labour leadership and its WWC roots is never been more profound.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    £/$ almost at 1.4.

    1.38, just over
    correction falling toward 1.36
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,173

    Any odds on Carswell getting a position in cabinet or in negotiations?

    It's scary but he's now one of the people I'd look to and (gulp) trust at this worrying time.

    Not a chance. High up in Boris and Gove's plans was to kill UKIP stone dead.
    What I mean though is why wouldn't Carswell come back to the new Tory right aligned party, it was his loathing of Cammo and Osborne which he showed most often?

    And he launched in to an attack on Farage last night on BBC didn't he when he actually prompted Dimbleby to ask him his view on those posters (which DD fluffed but Laura K rescued) that won't have help in kipperdom.
    Ah, I see. Yes Carswell could easily return to the Tories. UKIP were just the fad of the moment when he defected. With the right incentive, Carswell wouldn't now hesitate to bang a nail in its coffin.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,783
    Fpt yougovs polling itself was fine. But they ignored what it was telling them about turnout and instead just assumed turnout based on ge2015. They then made it worse by deciding that the dks would vote (very few i think will have) and break significantly for remain.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Buy shares in Betrayal :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Sturgeon now on the referendum.

    Says option is on the table.

    Discussions to be had before decision is taken. When Article 50 is triggered (she thinks it's guaranteed in 3 months), and wants referendum within the 2 year countdown period.

    Beginning to prepare legislation for new referendum to occur, if Parliament [Holyrood, I'd guess] votes for it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    edited June 2016
    Blue_rog said:

    It's now time (and now possible) to relaunch the Buy British campaign

    Absolutely. We should alse appoint an old fashioned Minister for the Board of Trade. Charter him a plane (Airbus, in BA colours) and fill it with British CEOs on a trip around the world promoting trade with Britian.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,298

    tlg86 said:

    Juncker is pissed.

    A bit early even for him isn't it?
    He did look like he had been up all night watching the result, in the company of several bottles of red....
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Thrak said:

    Gove reiterating 'open', this is EFTA/EEA from the sound of it. No mention whatsoever about immigration, what will UKIP say?

    The plot thickens. If this pair pull this off – Ukip destroyed, Labour irreparably split, the europhile wing of the Tory party smashed, Cameron removed, EFTA – well, well... it's genius.
    The Tory party will be united by Monday behind the Leave vote. It is the natural stance of the party, and now that the leadership will reflect that stance it has no reason to be split.
    Yep. And that's why it was politically critical for Boris and Red Mike to look calm and measured and not to be seen gloating.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    MaxPB said:

    tyson said:

    Charles said:

    feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

    "A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

    "Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"

    Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

    I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.
    No, because he fundamentals of the UK economy are largely unaffected by the EU. Our exports to the EU amount to 9.6% of GDP. We'd have to lose 30% or more of that for it to make a prolonged dent which would cause a long term downturn or loss of potential growth, while making no inroads in non-EU trade. It's a fanciful scenario and the markets have reacted exactly as expected. Even if we go fully out I don't see a massive hit like those predicted by the doom mongers, we'll still trade with the EU, making imports slightly less appealing will help domestic companies a bit and the weaker currency will help the exporters a bit, beyond that the wailing and gnashing of teeth will come to very little.
    I don't think you quite realise just how debt ridden our country is. A house price crash for instance, something that is now much more likely (who in their right minds will buy a house at the minute), will crush our economy.

    This vote creates uncertainty.....this a terrible thing for an economy.
    No, it removes the uncertainty of our membership in the long term.

    Please don't lecture me on indebtedness, I fully understand that there is a massive housing bubble in the UK, I look forward to it being burst. I say this as a homeowner and a mortgage holder.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Scott_P said:
    If London gets some form of autonomy in the future this may be closer to reality than the joke it still looks.
    Scott_P said:
    London autonomy is on the way, I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976

    Sturgeon: democratically unacceptable for Scotland to be taken out of the EU against its will.

    I was prepared to accept the uk remaining in even England voted leave. Same principle. But then we knew the bats woukd react this way. IndyRef 2 incoming.

    Worth noting Tsipras in Greece won an election months after humiliating himself by u turning after his brinkmanship failed. No reason scots might not, in the initial anger now, vote to break up uk.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Broken Britain takes on a new meaning. Thanks Dave.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    calum said:

    Material change 2nd Indy is on !!

    On the ground in the long grass ?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    eek said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

    Then again, the white working class isn't noted for voting Conservative. If working class Leaver vote UKIP in outrage it's mostly a problem for Labour.
    As I said earlier today. Unless Labour change their tone (and reading a few Labour MPs comments today they can't) UKIP will win a lot of WWC votes... Looking at my local area that means:-

    Hartlepool UKIP
    Redcar UKIP
    Darlington Tory (UKIP destroying the labour Vote)
    Sedgefield UKIP

    Unless Labour starts listening to the people who vote for it, its about to become Scottish Labour...
    Well, maybe. I think that even with the boost they will probably get from the referendum, UKIP needs to change its brand, policies and leader if its going to start winning that type of seat. Essentially it needs to be socially conservative, economically left wing and nationalistic, and it needs to look and sound like it comes from that world.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    They can still be ruled by Westminster then? :D
    Greater Luxembourg?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Sturgeon now on the referendum.

    Says option is on the table.

    Discussions to be had before decision is taken. When Article 50 is triggered (she thinks it's guaranteed in 3 months), and wants referendum within the 2 year countdown period.

    Beginning to prepare legislation for new referendum to occur, if Parliament [Holyrood, I'd guess] votes for it.


    It isn't up to Holyrood.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,173

    Buy shares in Betrayal :-)

    Are we saying that we went through all this just to help Boris up one rung of the ladder?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976

    Sturgeon now on the referendum.

    Says option is on the table.

    Discussions to be had before decision is taken. When Article 50 is triggered (she thinks it's guaranteed in 3 months), and wants referendum within the 2 year countdown period.

    Beginning to prepare legislation for new referendum to occur, if Parliament [Holyrood, I'd guess] votes for it.

    Well she has enough votes for that even without a majority.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577

    Sturgeon now on the referendum.

    Says option is on the table.

    Discussions to be had before decision is taken. When Article 50 is triggered (she thinks it's guaranteed in 3 months), and wants referendum within the 2 year countdown period.

    Beginning to prepare legislation for new referendum to occur, if Parliament [Holyrood, I'd guess] votes for it.


    It isn't up to Holyrood.

    Would Westminster say no?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    tyson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    Nicola does not want independence.

    They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

    But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
    I think the BoE Governor will be much more disposed to allow the Scots to keep the pound this time.
    Carney? He's yesterday's man. He'll be out soon enough with Cameron and Osborne...
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509

    Sturgeon now on the referendum.

    Says option is on the table.

    Discussions to be had before decision is taken. When Article 50 is triggered (she thinks it's guaranteed in 3 months), and wants referendum within the 2 year countdown period.

    Beginning to prepare legislation for new referendum to occur, if Parliament [Holyrood, I'd guess] votes for it.


    It isn't up to Holyrood.

    Neither is foreign affairs, but that doesn't seem to bother her.
This discussion has been closed.