politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure

System · June 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure

It has been on the cards for some time that the unexpected winner of Labour’s leadership contest, Mr. Corbyn, last September could face difficulties in the period following the referendum. This is even more so given the outcome.

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MarqueeMark · June 2016

Header should read "be coming..." I don't think Jezza will ever be "becoming"

MarqueeMark · June 2016

If he had followed his political instincts and gone for Leave, he would be owning this result.

Muppet.

RobD · June 2016

Third

tlg86 · June 2016

EICIPM!

Stark_Dawning · June 2016

I don't know why Jez is getting stick. For him everything's going swimmingly.

Jonathan · June 2016

FPT

Labour needs a communicator with some guts who recognises that Labour are close to extinction. It is that bad. Labour needs something fresh to say on policy that combines the best of all sides of the party.

Corbyn is not the man to deliver any of that. He must go.

RobD · June 2016

I feel a bit squiffy. Maybe the lack of sleep.

kle4 · June 2016

MarkHopkins said:

I think Cameron is hoping that a new deal will be offered by the EU, and the that fresh PM will get a chance to offer it to us again. Hence: wait and don't use Article 50 yet, resign and be the fall guy, and give enough time for people to calm down on both sides.

Notably no one appears to be talking of that as a possibility. I think the eu sees that any offer, even a good one, woukd probably fetch the same result.

More to the point, even though it is in theory reasonable for a new PM to ask the country to consider a new offer, in what universe does that pm a new referendum through the commons and win a public vote? In what universe do 27 other nations come together to discuss making us a new offer, which our new government will be pressured to say we don't want, agree a new offer and then make it to us?

They woukd need to be convinced of serous harm to themselves if they didn't get us back, and as we've seen people will accept harm to avoid what they see as humiliated. The eu will not want to be humiliated further, or risk another rejection.

Chelyabinsk · June 2016

MarqueeMark said:
If he had followed his political instincts and gone for Leave, he would be owning this result.

As would Cameron. How the mighty have fallen!

Danny565 · June 2016

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.

It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?

kle4 · June 2016

Chelyabinsk said:

MarqueeMark said:
If he had followed his political instincts and gone for Leave, he would be owning this result.
As would Cameron. How the mighty have fallen!

His instincts were not for leave

JennyFreeman · June 2016

Good thread. Corbyn is hopeless. Labour needs someone in touch with WWC. That could be a Scot or someone outside the metropolitan elite, of which bizarrely Corbyn has become one. Anyone from Islington, and probably London, should be automatically disqualified from standing. That's for the sake of the Labour party.

Mind you, Farron wasn't much better just now on Sky.

How about all 3?

Thrak · June 2016

It will fail, the labour party will split, the right will be joined by defecting tories. This will be especially the case where there are elections using a pr system. Exciting times, a centrist grouping that will be worth voting for.

JennyFreeman · June 2016

Has Mark Hopkins been deprived of sleep for 72 hours? One of the absurdist things posted on here. The decision is made. End of.

tlg86 · June 2016

Thanks to Mike, TSE and everyone else who make PB what it is.

kle4 · June 2016

It will be quite unfortunate if our exiting leads to the development of a sort of associate membership option which we we have preferred, but will be late to use. The only thing that has the chance of changing the eu to a more acceptable form is to leave it. Catch 22

YellowSubmarine · June 2016

Corbyn has to be executed because he's useless. Not only will Brexit reshape Britain totally there might well be a Brexit General Election under a new PM. It's precisely because of what Labour heartlands did yesterday that Labour MP's have to act. You just can't have someone so utterly incompetent in charge when your nation is in a once per century flux.

Alistair · June 2016

So has Article 50 been invoked yet by the Prime Minister who is definitely staying on after a Leave vote?

kle4 · June 2016

Thrak said:
It will fail, the labour party will split, the right will be joined by defecting tories. This will be especially the case where there are elections using a pr system. Exciting times, a centrist grouping that will be worth voting for.

It won't happen. They wouldn't even be able to come to agreement on a name, let alone a policy platform.

Charles · June 2016

feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"

FF43 · June 2016

kle4 said:

MarkHopkins said:

I think Cameron is hoping that a new deal will be offered by the EU, and the that fresh PM will get a chance to offer it to us again. Hence: wait and don't use Article 50 yet, resign and be the fall guy, and give enough time for people to calm down on both sides.

Notably no one appears to be talking of that as a possibility. I think the eu sees that any offer, even a good one, woukd probably fetch the same result.

More to the point, even though it is in theory reasonable for a new PM to ask the country to consider a new offer, in what universe does that pm a new referendum through the commons and win a public vote? In what universe do 27 other nations come together to discuss making us a new offer, which our new government will be pressured to say we don't want, agree a new offer and then make it to us?

They woukd need to be convinced of serous harm to themselves if they didn't get us back, and as we've seen people will accept harm to avoid what they see as humiliated. The eu will not want to be humiliated further, or risk another rejection.

In his speech Cameron had to recognise the other side won the argument and also keep things as calm as possible. If you listen carefully he made it clear that he thought leaving the EU would damage the UK and he had no intention of negotiating that damage. His successor will own the damage or otherwise.

Chelyabinsk · June 2016

kle4 said:

Chelyabinsk said:

MarqueeMark said:
If he had followed his political instincts and gone for Leave, he would be owning this result.
As would Cameron. How the mighty have fallen!

His instincts were not for leave

No, but had he gone for leave and pushed EFTA/EEA I suspect he'd have been looking at 60%+. Can you imagine Farage and Izzard on Question Time, trying to argue against the deal from two completely different angles?

Pulpstar · June 2016

£/$ almost at 1.4.

RobD · June 2016

Charles said:
feedback from senior city (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"

Carney holding the sick bag?

eek · June 2016

Charles said:
feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"

Can't fault that argument...

Charles · June 2016

RobD said:

Charles said:
feedback from senior city (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"
Carney holding the sick bag?

He did say "you want to be holding the bucket and then you can find the treasure"

RobD · June 2016

Pulpstar said:
£/$ almost at 1.4.

Long way back to 1.5

Sandpit · June 2016

FPT:

Labour need to decide who they are and what are their values. Do they stand for the working man, with his values, concerns and prejudices, or do they stand for an educated metropolitan elite who believe in unlimited unskilled immigration?

They have tried doing both, and as we have seen it didn't work.

Indigo · June 2016

kle4 said:

Thrak said:
It will fail, the labour party will split, the right will be joined by defecting tories. This will be especially the case where there are elections using a pr system. Exciting times, a centrist grouping that will be worth voting for.
It won't happen. They wouldn't even be able to come to agreement on a name, let alone a policy platform.

The electorate would view is as a defacto coalition and it would get the LD treatment.

Sean_F · June 2016

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?

If Labour is killed, blame Blair and New Labour. His winning strategy was to place Labour on the left, culturally and socially, and on the right economically. And his view was that Labour voters in their heartlands had nowhere else to go. So, they stopped voting. Until yesterday.

tlg86 · June 2016

Pulpstar said:
£/$ almost at 1.4.

But wasn't it supposed to fall 40%?

Thrak · June 2016

kle4 said:

Thrak said:
It will fail, the labour party will split, the right will be joined by defecting tories. This will be especially the case where there are elections using a pr system. Exciting times, a centrist grouping that will be worth voting for.
It won't happen. They wouldn't even be able to come to agreement on a name, let alone a policy platform.

These divisions will not heal, the parties are over. There is more that joins them than divides them, as they've recently realised.

TheWhiteRabbit · June 2016

kle4 said:
It will be quite unfortunate if our exiting leads to the development of a sort of associate membership option which we we have preferred, but will be late to use. The only thing that has the chance of changing the eu to a more acceptable form is to leave it. Catch 22

It would be fortunate, I think, actually:

(1) It is the only way forward for a strong Europe in the medium term
(2) It would provide a genuine route to British re-entry without being political suicide
(3) It could guide Britain's relationship with the EU even whilst outside it

AnneJGP · June 2016

What are the Labour MPs from the Leave-voting areas saying?

Have they been keeping a finger on the pulse in their own constituencies or just ignoring their voters?

I really don't see how 'more of the same' in a leadership position is going to help.

kle4 · June 2016

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

MarkHopkins said:

I think Cameron is hoping that a new deal will be offered by the EU, and the that fresh PM will get a chance to offer it to us again. Hence: wait and don't use Article 50 yet, resign and be the fall guy, and give enough time for people to calm down on both sides.

Notably no one appears to be talking of that as a possibility. I think the eu sees that any offer, even a good one, woukd probably fetch the same result.

More to the point, even though it is in theory reasonable for a new PM to ask the country to consider a new offer, in what universe does that pm a new referendum through the commons and win a public vote? In what universe do 27 other nations come together to discuss making us a new offer, which our new government will be pressured to say we don't want, agree a new offer and then make it to us?

They woukd need to be convinced of serous harm to themselves if they didn't get us back, and as we've seen people will accept harm to avoid what they see as humiliated. The eu will not want to be humiliated further, or risk another rejection.
In his speech Cameron had to recognise the other side won the argument and also keep things as calm as possible. If you listen carefully he made it clear that he thought leaving the EU would damage the UK and he had no intention of negotiating that damage. His successor will own the damage or otherwise.

And? That has no bearing on that no new offer will be made. Even if negotiations do not go great, a new PM won't be able to back down, they'll have to go with it, and Europe won't make a better offer to make a new PM think again, as they won't want to appear to be begging us. They need us to suffer so no one else gets an idea, making a new offer lets people know you vote against Europe and you'll always get more afterwards. Not going to happen. We're out now bar the shouting.

Jonathan · June 2016

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?

A sack of shit would not do worse than Corbyn.

Danny565 · June 2016

Jonathan said:
FPT

Labour needs a communicator with some guts who recognises that Labour are close to extinction. It is that bad. Labour needs something fresh to say on policy that combines the best of all sides of the party.

Corbyn is not the man to deliver any of that. He must go.

I don't think Labour need a good communicator as such, but just someone who has good political judgement and is a good reader of the public mood. But the problem is that anyone who was a good reader of the public mood would not have thrown themselves full-square behind the failed Remain Campaign - yet that is exactly what EVERY "moderate" Labour MP did. Anyone who was a good politician would've foreseen that it was doomed to failure.

Again, I'm certainly not arguing that Corbyn is a success, and I say this as someone who only ranked him 3rd preference (behind Burnham and Cooper) in the contest last year, but I genuinely believe right now that he's the least-worst option. I honestly believe a Blairite strategy would lead to utter wipeout in the North and the Midlands, in the current climate. Atleast with Corbyn as leader, there's a chance a populist economic argument and the sense that he's "anti-establishment" will convince some working-class traditional voters to overlook their HUGE disagreement with Labour on cultural issues.

Indigo · June 2016

AnneJGP said:
What are the Labour MPs from the Leave-voting areas saying?

Have they been keeping a finger on the pulse in their own constituencies or just ignoring their voters?

I really don't see how 'more of the same' in a leadership position is going to help.

Weren't they returning from their constituencies shellshocked having tried to sell the remain message, only to repeatedly have been given a flea in their ear by their working class voters.

kle4 · June 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

kle4 said:
It will be quite unfortunate if our exiting leads to the development of a sort of associate membership option which we we have preferred, but will be late to use. The only thing that has the chance of changing the eu to a more acceptable form is to leave it. Catch 22
It would be fortunate, I think, actually:

(1) It is the only way forward for a strong Europe in the medium term
(2) It would provide a genuine route to British re-entry without being political suicide
(3) It could guide Britain's relationship with the EU even whilst outside it

1) Yes
2) not a chance
3) possibly

2) it's never going to happen. At least not for decades. The argument was made on the basis of total freedom, re entering even on such a basis woukd never work.

tyson · June 2016

Charles said:
feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"

Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.

felix · June 2016

I doubt if Corbyn will go. Pleased the markets have currently stabilised. For that to continue so much depends on how quickly we get a sense of what the Brexit plan is going to be. I'm not convinced the Tory leadership election process will help us to get there quickly enough to avoid potentially a resumption of a more sustained market correction downwards. I'd much have preferred Cameron to stay and appoint a team to get the next stage moving pronto.

megalomaniacs4u · June 2016

EdM had charisma? really? Compared to Gordon maybe, but wtf

kle4 · June 2016

Thrak said:

kle4 said:

Thrak said:
It will fail, the labour party will split, the right will be joined by defecting tories. This will be especially the case where there are elections using a pr system. Exciting times, a centrist grouping that will be worth voting for.
It won't happen. They wouldn't even be able to come to agreement on a name, let alone a policy platform.
These divisions will not heal, the parties are over. There is more that joins them than divides them, as they've recently realised.

And yet their tribal affinities will keep them rolling on, however ridiculous.

Jonathan · June 2016

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:
FPT

Labour needs a communicator with some guts who recognises that Labour are close to extinction. It is that bad. Labour needs something fresh to say on policy that combines the best of all sides of the party.

Corbyn is not the man to deliver any of that. He must go.
I don't think Labour need a good communicator as such, but just someone who has good political judgement and is a good reader of the public mood. But the problem is that anyone who was a good reader of the public mood would not have thrown themselves full-square behind the failed Remain Campaign - yet that is exactly what EVERY "moderate" Labour MP did.

Again, I'm certainly not arguing that Corbyn is a success, and I say this as someone who only ranked him 3rd preference (behind Burnham and Cooper) in the contest last year, but I genuinely believe right now that he's the least-worst option. I honestly believe a Blairite strategy would lead to utter wipeout in the North and the Midlands, in the current climate. Atleast with Corbyn as leader, there's a chance a populist economic argument and the sense that he's "anti-establishment" will convince some working-class traditional voters to overlook their HUGE disagreement with Labour on cultural issues.

Britain needs a leader of the opposition at the very top of their game. Someone who can build a coalition to create an alternative government. It is urgent. It has never been more important.

Corbyn is not that person and must go.

Casino_Royale · June 2016

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
If Labour is killed, blame Blair and New Labour. His winning strategy was to place Labour on the left, culturally and socially, and on the right economically. And his view was that Labour voters in their heartlands had nowhere else to go. So, they stopped voting. Until yesterday.

As you said, they sewed the wind and they have reaped the whirlwind.

JosiasJessop · June 2016

An important question in this is how much Corbyn has changed the Labour leadership rules to match his vision for the party. If we're going to compare a potential upcoming LLE with the previous one, such changes are going to be vital.

tyson · June 2016

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:
£/$ almost at 1.4.
But wasn't it supposed to fall 40%?

Give it time.....

TheWhiteRabbit · June 2016

kle4 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

kle4 said:
It will be quite unfortunate if our exiting leads to the development of a sort of associate membership option which we we have preferred, but will be late to use. The only thing that has the chance of changing the eu to a more acceptable form is to leave it. Catch 22
It would be fortunate, I think, actually:

(1) It is the only way forward for a strong Europe in the medium term
(2) It would provide a genuine route to British re-entry without being political suicide
(3) It could guide Britain's relationship with the EU even whilst outside it
1) Yes
2) not a chance
3) possibly

2) it's never going to happen. At least not for decades. The argument was made on the basis of total freedom, re entering even on such a basis woukd never work.

I'm not envisaging a timetable on (2) less than 15 years, and the landscape will change a lot before then. Ultimately if one of the two major parties advocated rejoining then they could still win the required parliamentary majority.

Danny565 · June 2016

Jonathan said:

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
A sack of shit would not do worse than Corbyn.

Except the Remain Campaign DID just do worse than Corbyn, and the Remain Campaign was steered by the "moderate" Labour MPs....

Sandpit · June 2016

Leave presser starting now.

nunu · June 2016

Congratulations everyone!

RobD · June 2016

PB Tories 4 Gisela

FF43 · June 2016

kle4 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

MarkHopkins said:

I think Cameron is hoping that a new deal will be offered by the EU, and the that fresh PM will get a chance to offer it to us again. Hence: wait and don't use Article 50 yet, resign and be the fall guy, and give enough time for people to calm down on both sides.

Notably no one appears to be talking of that as a possibility. I think the eu sees that any offer, even a good one, woukd probably fetch the same result.

More to the point, even though it is in theory reasonable for a new PM to ask the country to consider a new offer, in what universe does that pm a new referendum through the commons and win a public vote? In what universe do 27 other nations come together to discuss making us a new offer, which our new government will be pressured to say we don't want, agree a new offer and then make it to us?

They woukd need to be convinced of serous harm to themselves if they didn't get us back, and as we've seen people will accept harm to avoid what they see as humiliated. The eu will not want to be humiliated further, or risk another rejection.
In his speech Cameron had to recognise the other side won the argument and also keep things as calm as possible. If you listen carefully he made it clear that he thought leaving the EU would damage the UK and he had no intention of negotiating that damage. His successor will own the damage or otherwise.
And? That has no bearing on that no new offer will be made. Even if negotiations do not go great, a new PM won't be able to back down, they'll have to go with it, and Europe won't make a better offer to make a new PM think again, as they won't want to appear to be begging us. They need us to suffer so no one else gets an idea, making a new offer lets people know you vote against Europe and you'll always get more afterwards. Not going to happen. We're out now bar the shouting.

Agreed, except I would go further and say the EU are no longer interested in us. The OP misunderstood where Cameron was coming from. He wasn't holding back to get a better offer. He was holding back to avoid being tarred with the poor deal that the UK will eventually get, which doesn't involve membership.

Paristonda · June 2016

what are EU expats on here planning to do now? will you apply for nationality where you live?

FrancisUrquhart · June 2016

Corbyn vote of no confidence at PLP meeting on Monday...those will be the meeting he virtually attends and was he does manages to piss more people off right?

tlg86 · June 2016

Boris being very kind to Cameron. Given Dave's treatment of him in the Commons a few months ago, that's impressive.

taffys · June 2016

''Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?''

You make a good point Mr Tyson, but its not just us. Look at Spain, Ireland, Austria, France, the list goes on.

The current arrangements are not fit for purpose anywhere, and there has to be change - in or out.

eek · June 2016

tyson said:

Charles said:
feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"
Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.

No but it does mean that the tin can can no longer be kicked down the road and someone will need to produce a sane budget with the welfare changes we require actually implemented. If that results in a recession so be it, the medicine may be unpleasant but after 6 years the structural budget deficit Gordon brown created still needs to be fixed

Sandpit · June 2016

Boris starting with a eulogy to David Cameron! Very gracious.

JennyFreeman · June 2016

Boris live now

tlg86 · June 2016

taffys said:
''Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?''

You make a good point Mr Tyson, but its not just us. Look at Spain, Ireland, Austria, France, the list goes on.

The current arrangements are not fit for purpose anywhere, and there has to be change - in or out.

The tide might be about to go out and we'll see who's got nothing on.

CornishBlue · June 2016

Someone just posted this on Guido - classic 90s ad... and sums up the British response to the "renegotiation" offered to us in February...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnuDHC-qh8

FrancisUrquhart · June 2016

One saving grace in all of this....no Katie Hopkins stunt. The nation really didn't need to see that.

Pulpstar · June 2016

Sean_F said:

If Labour is killed, blame Blair and New Labour. His winning strategy was to place Labour on the left, culturally and socially, and on the right economically. And his view was that Labour voters in their heartlands had nowhere else to go. So, they stopped voting. Until yesterday.

I think up till now alot of us had assumed working class non voters don't vote because they are too lazy. Moreso that if they don't see a clear option then they won't bother, but if the right option for them turns up then they will vote !

I'd be wary of overly weighted Donald Trump data in the USA for this reason too.

YellowSubmarine · June 2016

The dispossessed voted for Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn offers real change

http://gu.com/p/4mk7h?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Indigo · June 2016

tyson said:

Charles said:
feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"
Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.

On the basis of what ? The FTSE is recovering nicely from a bumpy start and isn't even at a low for this year, GBPUSD is back where it was a week ago, aside from your malevolent desire to talk your country down, what actual evidence do you have for this hand waving except a fervent hope that it is true so you can point and laugh at your opponents.

CornishBlue · June 2016

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:
£/$ almost at 1.4.
Long way back to 1.5

Give it a few weeks.

DavidL · June 2016

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:
£/$ almost at 1.4.
But wasn't it supposed to fall 40%?

Not even my offer of 20% was taken up by TSE. I almost offered him a bet at 10%. That would have been more carefully worded.

Blue_rog · June 2016

Ms Stewart sounded shell shocked and even Boris is a bit subdued!

RepublicanTory · June 2016

YellowSubmarine said:

Corbyn has to be executed because he's useless. Not only will Brexit reshape Britain totally there might well be a Brexit General Election under a new PM. It's precisely because of what Labour heartlands did yesterday that Labour MP's have to act. You just can't have someone so utterly incompetent in charge when your nation is in a once per century flux.

You just can't have someone so utterly incompetent in charge when your nation is in a once per century flux

That is the best reason i have heard for getting rid of Jeza
It is equally true on the Blue side-when you look at it as a once in an century change then who we elect as leader will quite possible determine the future survival of the Party.

How the 2 main parties deal with and shape the debate over the next couple of years is crucial to their long-term survival.

Quite what the Lib Dems do is anyone's guess-Use the minibus to do some airport runs to some extra cash ???

Scott_P · June 2016

@alexebarker: Tough joint EU statement. Impatience on Art 50. Warning UK on unilateral actions. Trade deal only after divorce. https://t.co/Roq4e2a3hY

Thrak · June 2016

tlg86 said:
Boris being very kind to Cameron. Given Dave's treatment of him in the Commons a few months ago, that's impressive.

He knows he's next for the same teatment. The leave team look and sound shocked, they didn't expect to have to own this.

Charles · June 2016

tyson said:

Charles said:
feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"
Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.

I was talking about the financial market adjustment.

In the real world life will go on much as it did before

tyson · June 2016

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
If Labour is killed, blame Blair and New Labour. His winning strategy was to place Labour on the left, culturally and socially, and on the right economically. And his view was that Labour voters in their heartlands had nowhere else to go. So, they stopped voting. Until yesterday.

I think that is a good post.

But leadership matters. Supposing the elder Miliband was chosen in 2010. We would now have a NuLab light led Govt and be at the heart of Europe. The great unwashed would probably be a ticking time bomb still.

Charles · June 2016

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
If Labour is killed, blame Blair and New Labour. His winning strategy was to place Labour on the left, culturally and socially, and on the right economically. And his view was that Labour voters in their heartlands had nowhere else to go. So, they stopped voting. Until yesterday.
As you said, they sewed the wind and they have reaped the whirlwind.

SOWED!

tlg86 · June 2016

Thrak said:

tlg86 said:
Boris being very kind to Cameron. Given Dave's treatment of him in the Commons a few months ago, that's impressive.
He knows he's next for the same teatment. The leave team look and sound shocked, they didn't expect to have to own this.

I think there's some truth in that. It has slightly concerned me that it's taken this long to hear from them.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2016

Anybody told Boris we voted for out?

FF43 · June 2016

Boris on now. Another Leaver who doesn't have a vestige of a plan.

kle4 · June 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

kle4 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

kle4 said:
It will be quite unfortunate if our exiting leads to the development of a sort of associate membership option which we we have preferred, but will be late to use. The only thing that has the chance of changing the eu to a more acceptable form is to leave it. Catch 22
It would be fortunate, I think, actually:

(1) It is the only way forward for a strong Europe in the medium term
(2) It would provide a genuine route to British re-entry without being political suicide
(3) It could guide Britain's relationship with the EU even whilst outside it
1) Yes
2) not a chance
3) possibly

2) it's never going to happen. At least not for decades. The argument was made on the basis of total freedom, re entering even on such a basis woukd never work.
I'm not envisaging a timetable on (2) less than 15 years, and the landscape will change a lot before then. Ultimately if one of the two major parties advocated rejoining then they could still win the required parliamentary majority.

Yes, no chance on earlier timescales.

It's interesting, just as only our leaving might lead the eu to alter itself to be more palatable (though that is not certain), the only way we'd want to not follow through from this vote woukd be if the article 50 negotiations go really badly for us, in which case it woukd be too late and they'd no longer want us back, since the negotiations will go bad if they decide to really punish us.

JosiasJessop · June 2016

eek said:

tyson said:

Charles said:
feedback from senior city bloke (ex big wheel in asset management)

"A pain for you, but right decision for your grandchildren"

"Market has puked, but has now stabilised and is moving forward"
Do you think the economic and political turmoil that now envelops the UK is reflected only in a morning shock that we are now moving forward from?

I'm incredulous. It is this kind of cloud cuckoo economics that is leading the UK economy into a prolonged recession and years and years of austerity.
No but it does mean that the tin can can no longer be kicked down the road and someone will need to produce a sane budget with the welfare changes we require actually implemented. If that results in a recession so be it, the medicine may be unpleasant but after 6 years the structural budget deficit Gordon brown created still needs to be fixed

"so be it"
"the medicine may be unpleasant"

A problem with that is that people will get hurt. That's not something I'm looking forward to, and we must try to mitigate the harm those people feel.

Oddly, those people will often be the people who voted for the medicine yesterday.

RobD · June 2016

Scott_P said:
@alexebarker: Tough joint EU statement. Impatience on Art 50. Warning UK on unilateral actions. Trade deal only after divorce. https://t.co/Roq4e2a3hY

Hm, what's a two month delay in a two year process?

Theuniondivvie · June 2016

Interesting..

https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/746282732104335360

MonikerDiCanio · June 2016

CornishBlue said:
Someone just posted this on Guido - classic 90s ad... and sums up the British response to the "renegotiation" offered to us in February...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEnuDHC-qh8

One of Roger's best efforts.

Thrak · June 2016

Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc won't let that stand.

TheWhiteRabbit · June 2016

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
@alexebarker: Tough joint EU statement. Impatience on Art 50. Warning UK on unilateral actions. Trade deal only after divorce. https://t.co/Roq4e2a3hY
Hm, what's a two month delay in a two year process?

Not sure I agree with the summary of what they actually said. The EU statement is devoid - at least for now - of recriminations.

Jobabob · June 2016

Does Boris know that Leave won?

not_on_fire · June 2016

Thrak said:
Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc wion't let that stand.

A crumb of comfort form Remainers will be watching the Leavers buckle under their own contradictions in the coming weeks.

kle4 · June 2016

Sandpit said:
Boris starting with a eulogy to David Cameron! Very gracious.

He's no fool. Cameron could be rude to Boris months ago because if he lost he'd be gone anyway and if he won Boris woukd be finished. Boris though has not won the top prize so needs to not piss off continuity Cameroons.

RobD · June 2016

not_on_fire said:

Thrak said:
Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc wion't let that stand.
A crumb of comfort form Remainers will be watching the Leavers buckle under their own contradictions in the coming weeks.

Compromise?

tyson · June 2016

Flies buzzing around Boris. The stench of bullshit and hubris is attractive

Stark_Dawning · June 2016

Jobabob said:
Does Boris know that Leave won?

I suspect he wishes they hadn't.

DecrepitJohnL · June 2016

tyson said:

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
If Labour is killed, blame Blair and New Labour. His winning strategy was to place Labour on the left, culturally and socially, and on the right economically. And his view was that Labour voters in their heartlands had nowhere else to go. So, they stopped voting. Until yesterday.
I think that is a good post.

But leadership matters. Supposing the elder Miliband was chosen in 2010. We would now have a NuLab light led Govt and be at the heart of Europe. The great unwashed would probably be a ticking time bomb still.

Which of the Conservatives' attacks and abuse of Ed Miliband would not have been thrown at David? Their fathers had identical war records, for example.

FF43 · June 2016

Thrak said:
Boris intimating no drawbridge, code for EEA I think, with free movement. Will calm the markets but the wwc wion't let that stand.

Probably best not to go on about supra-national bodies being unfit for purpose in that case.

Jonathan · June 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T17VzztS60M

nunu · June 2016

I'm so glad the Will "use the death of Jo Cox" Straw has lost again.

FrankBooth · June 2016

Et tu Brute.......

IanB2 · June 2016

YellowSubmarine said:

Corbyn has to be executed because he's useless. Not only will Brexit reshape Britain totally there might well be a Brexit General Election under a new PM. It's precisely because of what Labour heartlands did yesterday that Labour MP's have to act. You just can't have someone so utterly incompetent in charge when your nation is in a once per century flux.

Don't you need to have someone less useless and more in touch, before executing someone for being useless and out of touch?

Casino_Royale · June 2016

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jobabob said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?

No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.

Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.

Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?

We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020

Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
If Labour is killed, blame Blair and New Labour. His winning strategy was to place Labour on the left, culturally and socially, and on the right economically. And his view was that Labour voters in their heartlands had nowhere else to go. So, they stopped voting. Until yesterday.
As you said, they sewed the wind and they have reaped the whirlwind.
SOWED!

Argh, bloody iPhone!

Danny565 · June 2016

Jonathan said:

Danny565 said:

Jonathan said:
FPT

Labour needs a communicator with some guts who recognises that Labour are close to extinction. It is that bad. Labour needs something fresh to say on policy that combines the best of all sides of the party.

Corbyn is not the man to deliver any of that. He must go.
I don't think Labour need a good communicator as such, but just someone who has good political judgement and is a good reader of the public mood. But the problem is that anyone who was a good reader of the public mood would not have thrown themselves full-square behind the failed Remain Campaign - yet that is exactly what EVERY "moderate" Labour MP did.

Again, I'm certainly not arguing that Corbyn is a success, and I say this as someone who only ranked him 3rd preference (behind Burnham and Cooper) in the contest last year, but I genuinely believe right now that he's the least-worst option. I honestly believe a Blairite strategy would lead to utter wipeout in the North and the Midlands, in the current climate. Atleast with Corbyn as leader, there's a chance a populist economic argument and the sense that he's "anti-establishment" will convince some working-class traditional voters to overlook their HUGE disagreement with Labour on cultural issues.
Britain needs a leader of the opposition at the very top of their game. Someone who can build a coalition to create an alternative government. It is urgent. It has never been more important.

Absolutely, that would be the ideal. But I'm afraid I see absolutely no such potential leader on offer.

As far as I see it, the Blairite/"moderate" prescription is to go even more hardcore on the cultural issues that are toxic in the Labour heartlands (Europe, immigration), while backpeddling on the bits of Corbynism which might have some appeal in the heartlands (anti-austerity, giving the fat cats a kicking). As such, Corbyn is the lesser of the evils.

TGOHF · June 2016

Gove is a class act - make him Chancellor.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure

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